Objective:To investigate the predictive value of maximum tumor diameter and the peripheral blood neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) before radiotherapy for the occurrence of esophageal fistula after radiotherapy in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) .Methods:A total of 98 patients with ESCC who underwent radiotherapy in Hefei Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Sciences from February 2017 to February 2021 were selected, and the patients were divided into esophageal fistula group (13 cases) and no esophageal fistula group (85 cases) according to whether esophageal fistula occurred during the follow-up process. The prognostic nutritional index (PNI) , NLR, and systemic inflammatory response index (SIRI) were calculated. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to analyze the influencing factors of esophageal fistula, and the predictive value of each indicator was evaluated by using the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve.Results:There were no statistically significant differences in age, smoking history, diabetes mellitus history, gender, concurrent chemotherapy and alcohol history between the esophageal fistula group and the no esophageal fistula group (all P>0.05) , while there were statistically significant differences in PNI ( t=2.24, P=0.041) , NLR ( t=3.75, P=0.001) , SIRI ( t=2.68, P=0.015) . Univariate analysis showed that tumor length ( OR=1.16, 95% CI: 1.01-1.35, P=0.043) , maximum tumor diameter ( OR=1.63, 95% CI: 1.11-2.39, P=0.012) , PNI ( OR=0.83, 95% CI: 0.71-0.98, P=0.023) , NLR ( OR=1.94, 95% CI: 1.20-3.12, P=0.007) and SIRI ( OR=1.82, 95% CI: 1.03-3.24, P=0.041) were related to esophageal fistula. Multivariate analysis showed that maximum tumor diameter ( OR=2.17, 95% CI: 1.02-4.94, P=0.033) and NLR ( OR=2.40, 95% CI: 1.89-6.59, P=0.018) were independent influencing factors for the development of esophageal fistula in patients with ESCC after radiotherapy. ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve of maximum tumor diameter before radiotherapy combined with NLR for predicting esophageal fistula in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma after radiotherapy was 0.83 (95% CI: 0.74-0.90) , which was greater than that of maximum tumor diameter before radiotherapy (0.71, 95% CI: 0.63-0.81, Z=1.80, P=0.039) and NLR (0.74, 95% CI: 0.67-0.85, Z=1.64, P=0.046) alone. Conclusions:The maximum tumor diameter before radiotherapy and NLR are closely related to the occurrence of esophageal fistula in ESCC after radiotherapy, and these factors are expected to serve as key predictors of the occurrence of esophageal fistula.

Chronic skin diseases have complex pathogeneses and prolonged courses, and have long adverse impacts on the physical and mental health, as well as the normal life of patients. It is necessary to develop evidence-based strategies and measures for effective prevention and control of chronic skin diseases. However, related studies are limited in China. This article proposes a population medicine research plan for health promotion and equity, and disease prevention, diagnosis, control, treatment, and rehabilitation to establish a collaborative platform for strengthening research on the prevention and treatment of chronic skin diseases in China.