1.Overexpression of multimerin-2 promotes cutaneous melanoma cell invasion and migration and is associated with poor prognosis.
Jinlong PANG ; Xinli ZHAO ; Zhen ZHANG ; Haojie WANG ; Xingqi ZHOU ; Yumei YANG ; Shanshan LI ; Xiaoqiang CHANG ; Feng LI ; Xian LI
Journal of Southern Medical University 2025;45(7):1479-1489
OBJECTIVES:
To investigate the inhibitory effect of multimerin-2 (MMRN2) overexpression on growth and metastasis of cutaneous melanoma cells.
METHODS:
Clinical data of patients with cutaneous melanoma were obtained from the GEO database to compare MMRN2 expressions between normal and tumor tissues. A protein-protein interaction network was constructed using the STRING database, and the intersecting genes from GEPIA2.0 were subjected to GO and KEGG enrichment analysis. The prognostic relevance of MMRN2 expression level was assessed using Cox regression and "timeROC". The correlations of MMRN2 expression level with immune infiltration and angiogenesis-related genes were analyzed using GSCA database and the ssGSEA algorithm. Colony-forming assay, Transwell assay, and wound healing assay were used to examine the changes in proliferation and migration of cultured cutaneous melanoma cells following MMRN2 knockdown. In a mouse model bearing cutaneous melanoma xenograft, the effect of MMRN2 knockdown on vital organ pathologies, survival of the mice and GM-CSF, CXCL9, and TGF‑β1 protein expressions were analyzed.
RESULTS:
MMRN2 was significantly upregulated in metastatic cutaneous melanoma (P<0.001). Protein interaction network analysis identified 15 intersecting genes, which were enriched in endothelium development and cell-cell junctions. In patients with cutaneous melanoma, a high MMRN2 expression was correlated with a poor prognosis, an advanced T stage, a greater Breslow depth, and ulceration (P<0.05). MMRN2 expression level was strongly correlated with 24 immune cell types (P<0.001), fibroblasts, endothelial cells, and expressions of the pro-angiogenic genes (KCNJ8, SLCO2A1, NRP1, and COL3A1; P<0.001). In cultured B16F10 cells, MMRN2 knockdown significantly suppressed cell proliferation, migration and invasion and caused remo-deling of the immunosuppressive microenvironment.
CONCLUSIONS
MMRN2 overexpression drives progression of cutaneous melanoma by enhancing tumor metastasis, angiogenesis and immune evasion, highlighting its potential as a therapeutic target for melanomas.
Humans
;
Melanoma/metabolism*
;
Animals
;
Cell Movement
;
Prognosis
;
Skin Neoplasms/metabolism*
;
Mice
;
Cell Proliferation
;
Neoplasm Invasiveness
;
Cell Line, Tumor
;
Protein Interaction Maps
2.A Novel Mouse Model Unveils Protein Deficiency in Truncated CDKL5 Mutations.
Xue FENG ; Zi-Ai ZHU ; Hong-Tao WANG ; Hui-Wen ZHOU ; Ji-Wei LIU ; Ya SHEN ; Yu-Xian ZHANG ; Zhi-Qi XIONG
Neuroscience Bulletin 2025;41(5):805-820
Mutations in the cyclin-dependent kinase-like 5 gene (CDKL5) cause a severe neurodevelopmental disorder, yet the impact of truncating mutations remains unclear. Here, we introduce the Cdkl5492stop mouse model, mimicking C-terminal truncating mutations in patients. 492stop/Y mice exhibit altered dendritic spine morphology and spontaneous seizure-like behaviors, alongside other behavioral deficits. After creating cell lines with various Cdkl5 truncating mutations, we found that these mutations are regulated by the nonsense-mediated RNA decay pathway. Most truncating mutations result in CDKL5 protein loss, leading to multiple disease phenotypes, and offering new insights into the pathogenesis of CDKL5 disorder.
Animals
;
Disease Models, Animal
;
Mice
;
Protein Serine-Threonine Kinases/deficiency*
;
Mutation/genetics*
;
Epileptic Syndromes/genetics*
;
Humans
;
Dendritic Spines/pathology*
;
Spasms, Infantile/genetics*
;
Male
;
Seizures/genetics*
;
Mice, Inbred C57BL
3.Digital identification of Cervi Cornu Pantotrichum based on HPLC-QTOF-MS~E and Adaboost.
Xiao-Han GUO ; Xian-Rui WANG ; Yu ZHANG ; Ming-Hua LI ; Wen-Guang JING ; Xian-Long CHENG ; Feng WEI
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(5):1172-1178
Cervi Cornu Pantotrichum is a precious animal-derived Chinese medicinal material, while there are often adulterants derived from animals not specified in the Chinese Pharmacopeia in the market, which disturbs the safety of medication. This study was conducted with the aim of strengthening the quality control of Cervi Cornu Pantotrichum and standardizing the medication. To achieve digital identification of Cervi Cornu Pantotrichum from different sources, a digital identification model was constructed based on ultra-high performance liquid chromatography tandem quadrupole time-of-flight mass spectrometry(UHPLC-QTOF-MS~E) combined with an adaptive boosting algorithm(Adaboost). The young furred antlers of sika deer, red deer, elk, and reindeer were processed and then subjected to polypeptide analysis by UHPLC-QTOF-MS~E. Then, the mass spectral data reflecting the polypeptide information were obtained by digital quantification. Next, the key data were obtained by feature screening based on Gini index, and the digital identification model was constructed by Adaboost. The model was evaluated based on the recall rate, F_1 composite score, and accuracy. Finally, the results of identification based on the constructed digital identification model were validated. The results showed that when the Gini index was used to screen the data of top 100 characteristic polypeptides, the digital identification model based on Adaboost had the best performance, with the recall rate, F_1 composite score, and accuracy not less than 0.953. The validation analysis showed that the accuracy of the identification of the 10 batches of samples was as high as 100.0%. Therefore, based on UHPLC-QTOF-MS~E and Adaboost algorithm, the digital identification of Cervi Cornu Pantotrichum can be realized efficiently and accurately, which can provide reference for the quality control and original animal identification of Cervi Cornu Pantotrichum.
Animals
;
Algorithms
;
Antlers/chemistry*
;
Boosting Machine Learning Algorithms
;
Chromatography, High Pressure Liquid/methods*
;
Deer
;
Drugs, Chinese Herbal/chemistry*
;
Mass Spectrometry/methods*
;
Quality Control
;
Reindeer
;
Tandem Mass Spectrometry/methods*
;
Tissue Extracts/analysis*
4.Treatment of chronic lumbar disc herniation by bone injury manipulation combined with guided exercise.
Feng QIU ; Ai-Zhen ZHOU ; Lin GUO ; Lei WANG ; Xian ZHANG
China Journal of Orthopaedics and Traumatology 2025;38(8):779-785
OBJECTIVE:
To explore the clinical efficacy of orthopedic manipulation combined with daoyin exercises in the treatment of chronic lumbar disc herniation under the guidance of the theory of "equal emphasis on muscles and bones".
METHODS:
A total of 60 patients with single-segment, unilateral chronic lumbar disc herniation from January 2023 to January 2024 were randomly divided into the traditional physical therapy group and the manipulation treatment group, with 30 cases in each group. Among them, 3 cases were lost to follow-up in the traditional physical therapy group and 2 cases in the manipulation treatment group. There were 27 cases in the traditional physical therapy group, including 15 males and 12 females, aged 25 to 65 years old with an average of (51.96±14.42) years;the course of disease ranged from 3 to 15 months with an average of (9.89±3.32) months;11 cases were on the left side and 16 cases on the right side;15 cases were at the L4, 5 segment and 12 cases at the L5S1 segment. They were treated with lumbar traction, medium-frequency electrical stimulation and ultrasonic therapy. There were 28 cases in the manipulation treatment group, including 14 males and 14 females, aged 24 to 68 years old with an average of (49.82±14.85) years old;the course of disease ranged from 3 to 14 months with an average of (9.61±3.05) months;15 cases were on the left side and 13 cases on the right side;17 cases were at the L4, 5 segment and 11 cases at the L5S1 segment. They were treated with orthopedic manipulation combined with daoyin exercises. The visual analogue scale (VAS), Oswestry disability index (ODI) and bilateral erector spinae muscle tone were compared between the two groups before treatment, after 2 weeks and 4 weeks of treatment.
RESULTS:
The two groups of patients were followed up and evaluated before treatment, 2 weeks and 4 weeks after treatment. The VAS of the manipulation treatment group and the traditional physical therapy group decreased from (5.46±0.99) and (5.41±1.05) points before treatment to (1.75±0.79) and (2.29±0.82) points after 4 weeks of treatment, respectively. Both groups were significantly improved after treatment compared with before treatment, and the differences were statistically significant (P<0.05);and the manipulation treatment group was better than the traditional physical therapy group at 4 weeks of treatment, with a statistically significant difference (P<0.05). The ODI of the manipulation treatment group and the traditional physical therapy group before treatment was (20.25±2.72) and (18.96±2.52) points, respectively, which decreased to (15.46±1.88) and (16.56±2.01) points after 2 weeks of treatment, and to (11.54±1.23) and (12.85±1.72) points after 4 weeks of treatment. Both groups were significantly improved after treatment compared with before treatment, and the differences were statistically significant (P<0.05), and the ODI in the manipulation treatment group was better than that in the traditional physical therapy group after treatment (P<0.05). There was no significant statistical difference in the displacement of erector spinae muscle tone between the healthy side and the affected side in both the manipulation treatment group and the traditional physical therapy group before treatment (P>0.05). After 2 weeks of treatment, the displacement values of erector spinae muscle tone on the healthy side in the manipulation treatment group and the traditional physical therapy group were (6.68±0.81) mm and (6.45±0.65) mm, respectively, and those on the affected side were (5.87±0.82) mm and (5.61±0.84) mm, respectively. After 4 weeks of treatment, the displacement values of erector spinae muscle tone on the healthy side in the manipulation treatment group and the traditional physical therapy group were (7.51±0.75) mm and (7.04±0.63) mm, respectively, and those on the affected side were (6.87±0.78) mm and (6.33±0.82) mm, respectively. The displacement values of erector spinae muscle tone on both the healthy and affected sides in both groups were significantly higher than those before treatment, and the differences were statistically significant (P<0.05);the displacement of erector spinae muscle tone in the manipulation treatment group after 4 weeks of treatment was better than that in the traditional physical therapy group, with a statistically significant difference (P<0.05).
CONCLUSION
Orthopedic manipulation combined with daoyin exercises can effectively improve the symptoms and lumbar function of patients with chronic lumbar disc herniation, and has more advantages in improving the tone of the erector spinae muscle.
Humans
;
Male
;
Female
;
Middle Aged
;
Adult
;
Intervertebral Disc Displacement/physiopathology*
;
Aged
;
Lumbar Vertebrae/injuries*
;
Exercise Therapy
;
Chronic Disease/therapy*
;
Manipulation, Orthopedic
;
Combined Modality Therapy
5.Value of targeted next-generation sequencing in pathogen detection for neonates with respiratory distress syndrome: a prospective randomized controlled trial.
Hai-Hong ZHANG ; Xia OU-YANG ; Xian-Ping LIU ; Shao-Ru HUANG ; Yun-Feng LIN
Chinese Journal of Contemporary Pediatrics 2025;27(10):1191-1198
OBJECTIVES:
To investigate the application value of targeted next-generation sequencing (tNGS) in the etiological diagnosis of moderate to severe respiratory distress syndrome (RDS) in neonates.
METHODS:
A prospective randomized controlled trial was conducted, enrolling 81 term and late-preterm neonates with moderate to severe RDS admitted to Fujian Children's Hospital between December 2023 and December 2024. Patients were randomly assigned to the conventional microbiological test (CMT) group (n=42) or the tNGS group (n=39). For routine pathogen detection, bronchoalveolar lavage fluid was obtained via bronchoscopy, and lower respiratory tract specimens were collected via the endotracheal tube; all specimens underwent culture, and some specimens additionally underwent polymerase chain reaction or antigen testing. In the tNGS group, tNGS was performed in addition to routine pathogen detection on the same specimen types. The detection rate of pathogens, the detection rate of co-infections, and the duration of antibiotic use were compared between the two groups.
RESULTS:
The pathogen detection rate in the tNGS group (18/39, 46%) was significantly higher than that in the CMT group (8/42, 19%) (P=0.009). The co-infection detection rate was 13% (5/39) in the tNGS group, while no co-infections were identified in the CMT group (P=0.024). Regarding treatment, the duration of antibiotic use in the tNGS group was shorter than that in the CMT group [(12±4) days vs (15±5) days, P=0.003].
CONCLUSIONS
tNGS significantly improves the pathogen detection rate in neonates with moderate to severe RDS and offers advantages in the rapid identification of co-infections and reduction of antibiotic treatment duration, suggesting it has clinical utility and potential for wider adoption.
Humans
;
Prospective Studies
;
Infant, Newborn
;
Female
;
Respiratory Distress Syndrome, Newborn/etiology*
;
Male
;
High-Throughput Nucleotide Sequencing/methods*
6.Effectiveness of Lianhua Qingwen Granule and Jingyin Gubiao Prescription in Omicron BA.2 Infection and Hospitalization: A Real-World Study of 56,244 Cases in Shanghai, China.
Yu-Jie ZHANG ; Guo-Jian LIU ; Han ZHANG ; Chen LIU ; Zhi-Qiang CHEN ; Ji-Shu XIAN ; Da-Li SONG ; Zhi LIU ; Xue YANG ; Ju WANG ; Zhe ZHANG ; Lu-Ying ZHANG ; Hua FENG ; Yan-Qi ZHANG ; Liang TAN
Chinese journal of integrative medicine 2025;31(1):11-18
OBJECTIVE:
To examine the effectiveness of Chinese medicine (CM) Lianhua Qingwen Granule (LHQW) and Jingyin Gubiao Prescription (JYGB) in asymptomatic or mild patients with Omicron infection in the shelter hospital.
METHODS:
This single-center retrospective cohort study was conducted in the largest shelter hospital in Shanghai, China, from April 10, 2022 to May 30, 2022. A total of 56,244 asymptomatic and mild Omicron cases were included and divided into 4 groups, i.e., non-administration group (23,702 cases), LHQW group (11,576 cases), JYGB group (12,112 cases), and dual combination of LHQW and JYGB group (8,854 cases). The length of stay (LOS) in the hospital was used to assess the effectiveness of LHQW and JYGB treatment on Omicron infection.
RESULTS:
Patients aged 41-60 years, with nadir threshold cycle (CT) value of N gene <25, or those fully vaccinated preferred to receive CM therapy. Before or after propensity score matching (PSM), the multiple linear regression showed that LHQW and JYGB treatment were independent influence factors of LOS (both P<0.001). After PSM, there were significant differences in LOS between the LHQW/JYGB combination and the other groups (P<0.01). The results of factorial design ANOVA proved that the LHQW/JYGB combination therapy synergistically shortened LOS (P=0.032).
CONCLUSIONS
Patients with a nadir CT value <25 were more likely to accept CM. The LHQW/JYGB combination therapy could shorten the LOS of Omicron-infected individuals in an isolated environment.
Humans
;
Drugs, Chinese Herbal/therapeutic use*
;
Male
;
Female
;
Middle Aged
;
Adult
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Hospitalization
;
COVID-19 Drug Treatment
;
COVID-19/epidemiology*
;
SARS-CoV-2
;
Retrospective Studies
;
Treatment Outcome
;
Length of Stay
;
Young Adult
;
Aged
7.Efficacy and Safety of Fuzheng Jiedu Xiaoji Formula Combined with Conventional Western Therapy in Advanced HBV-HCC: A Single-Center, Randomized Controlled Trial.
Yi ZHANG ; Ke SHI ; Yong-Qi LI ; Yao LIU ; Ying FENG ; Xian-Bo WANG
Chinese journal of integrative medicine 2025;31(10):867-876
OBJECTIVES:
To evaluate whether adding Fuzheng Jiedu Xiaoji (FZJDXJ) therapy improves survival in advanced hepatitis B virus-related HCC (HBV-HCC) patients.
METHODS:
This prospective, randomized controlled study was performed at a major academic medical center in Beijing, China from October 2020 to October 2022. Eligible patients with advanced HBV-HCC were randomly divided equally (1:1) to receive either the combination of FZJDXJ and conventional Western medical therapy (63 cases, FZJDXJ group) or solely Western medicine (66 cases, control group). The study endpoints consisted of overall survival (OS) as the primary outcome, with progression-free survival (PFS), disease control rate (DCR), and adverse events (AEs) as secondary measures.
RESULTS:
The median OS was significantly prolonged in the FZJDXJ group at 8.9 months (95% CI: 6.0-11.9) vs. 4.4 months (95% CI: 3.2-7.3) in the control group (P<0.05). The hazard ratio for mortality in the FZJDXJ group was 0.59 (95% CI: 0.40-0.89), suggesting a 41% lower risk of death compared to the control group. The results revealed that patients receiving FZJDXJ therapy achieved a PFS of 5.1 months (95% CI: 4.1 to 7.2 months), compared to only 2.9 months (95% CI: 2.0 to 4.6 months) in the control group (P<0.05). Additionally, DCR was significantly elevated in the FZJDXJ group (20.6%) compared to the control group (10.6%, P<0.05). Subgroup analysis demonstrated that FZJDXJ significantly improved OS in patients with alpha-fetoprotein levels <400 ng/mL, age <60 years, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage C, and compensated liver function (Child-Pugh A and B, P<0.05). Multivariate analysis revealed that FZJDXJ therapy acted as an independent factor protecting against mortality within 1 year. Gastrointestinal symptoms are rare side effects, and no fatalities associated with the treatment were reported.
CONCLUSION
This randomized controlled trial demonstrated that FZJDXJ combined Western conventional therapy significantly improves OS and PFS in patients with advanced HBV-HCC. (registration No. ChiCTR2000033941).
Humans
;
Drugs, Chinese Herbal/adverse effects*
;
Male
;
Female
;
Middle Aged
;
Liver Neoplasms/virology*
;
Carcinoma, Hepatocellular/virology*
;
Treatment Outcome
;
Hepatitis B virus
;
Adult
;
Aged
;
Hepatitis B/drug therapy*
8.Efficacy comparison of subsequent treatment modalities for locally advanced hypopharyngeal cancer with partial response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy
Ru WANG ; Zheng LI ; Jugao FANG ; Junfang XIAN ; Qi ZHONG ; Yang ZHANG ; Lizhen HOU ; Hongzhi MA ; Ling FENG ; Shizhi HE ; Qian SHI ; Yifan YANG ; Haiyang LI ; Lingwa WANG ; Xinyu LI
Chinese Journal of Otorhinolaryngology Head and Neck Surgery 2025;60(10):1223-1231
Objective:To compare the survival outcomes of different subsequent treatment regimens in patients with locally advanced hypopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (HPSCC) who achieved partial response (PR) after neoadjuvant chemotherapy based on the gross tumor volume regression rate (GTVRR).Methods:This retrospective study included patients with locally advanced HPSCC treated at the Department of Head and Neck Surgery, Beijing Tongren Hospital, from January 2011 to December 2023. The cohort included 135 males and 3 females, aged from 35 to 77 years. All patients received 2-3 cycles of TPF regimen (paclitaxel+cisplatin+5-fluorouracil) neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Subsequent treatments included concurrent chemoradiotherapy or surgery combined with postoperative adjuvant radiotherapy. The impacts of different subsequent treatment modalities on the survivals and prognoses of patients were compared based on GTVRR thresholds of 50% and 70%. The χ 2 test was used to analyze influencing factors; survival analysis and intergroup comparisons were performed using the Kaplan-Meier method and Log-rank test; prognostic factors were assessed using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. Results:The 5-year OS and PFS rates were 56.5% and 47.9%, respectively, while, the 10-year OS and PFS rates were 25.8% and 21.2%, respectively. The median OS was 75 months, and the median PFS was 48 months. The laryngeal function preservation rate for the entire cohort was 83.3%. The patients who underwent surgery combined with postoperative radiotherapy had significantly better OS and PFS outcomes than those treated with concurrent chemoradiotherapy ( P<0.05). Stratification based on GTVRR revealed that the surgery plus postoperative radiotherapy regimen was particularly effective for PR patients with a GTVRR of 30%-70%, showing significantly better OS and PFS compared to the concurrent chemoradiotherapy group ( P<0.05). Conclusion:The optimal subsequent treatment for PR-HPSCC may be surgery-based comprehensive treatment, particularly for patients with a GTVRR of 30%-70%. This study offers valuable insights for the stratified treatment of HPSCC, which could contribute to improving overall patient prognosis.
9.Correlation and predictive value of obesity measurement indicators and cerebrovascular function scores in healthy physical examination population
Dianhua DU ; Chunwei WU ; Lan MO ; Xuelin ZHANG ; Wen WU ; Yiping WANG ; Xian WU ; Bo WANG ; Shaohui FENG
Chinese Journal of Health Management 2025;19(4):286-291
Objective:To analyze the correlation and predictive value of obesity measurement indicators and cerebrovascular function scores in healthy physical examination population.Methods:It was a cross-sectional analysis that employed a simple random sampling method to select 3 496 individuals who underwent healthy physical examinations and cerebrovascular function tests at the Physical Examination Center of the Affiliated Hospital of Guizhou Medical University from January to December 2022. The general information, physical examination data, biochemical examination results, human component analyses, and cerebrovascular function integral data were collected. Based on cerebrovascular function scores, the participants were divided into high-risk group (0-24 points, 70 cases), medium-risk group (25-49 points, 317 cases), low-risk group (50-74 points, 787 cases), and normal group (≥75 points, 2 322 cases). Spearman correlation analysis and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were utilized to assess the correlation and predictive value of obesity measurement indicators and cerebrovascular function integrals.Results:Among the 3 496 subjects included in the analysis, 2 018 were male and 1 478 were female, with an average age of (46.4±7.9) years. The age, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, body mass index, waist-to-hip ratio, body fat ratio, body fat content, visceral fat area, fasting blood glucose, total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein, homocysteine all exhibited an increasing trend as the cerebrovascular function integral value decreased (all P<0.05). The skeletal muscle content in the low-risk group was significantly higher than those in the high-risk group, medium-risk group, and normal group [45.00 (36.80, 50.60) vs 44.10 (36.98, 50.45), 44.50 (37.80, 50.20), and 42.75 (36.30, 48.60) kg, respectively] ( P<0.05). The triglyceride level in the medium-risk group was higher when compared to those in the high-risk group, low-risk group, and normal group[1.87 (1.29, 2.70) vs 1.71 (1.24, 2.80), 1.75 (1.18, 2.70), and 1.43 (1.00, 2.14) mmol/L] ( P<0.05). The high-density lipoprotein level in the normal group was higher than the high-risk group, medium-risk group, and low-risk group[1.26 (1.05, 1.51) vs 1.16 (0.94, 1.36), 1.15 (0.99, 1.39), and 1.16 (0.97, 1.39) mmol/L, respectively] ( P<0.05). The increases in systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, body mass index, and body fat content were all moderately negatively correlated with the cerebrovascular function score ( rs=-0.347, -0.335, -0.370, and -0.340, respectively, all P<0.05). The increase in age ( OR=1.012, 95% CI: 1.002-1.022), systolic blood pressure ( OR=1.027, 95% CI: 1.017-1.036), diastolic blood pressure ( OR=1.028, 95% CI: 1.014-1.042), body mass index ( OR=1.157, 95% CI: 1.083-1.237), body fat rate ( OR=1.021, 95% CI: 1.007-1.035), and fasting blood glucose ( OR=1.072, 95% CI: 1.020-1.127) were all positively correlated with the decrease of the cerebrovascular function score; conversely, the increase in skeletal muscle content ( OR=0.967, 95% CI: 0.951-0.982) was negatively correlated with the decrease in cerebrovascular function score (all P<0.05). The area under the curve for the combined prediction of cerebrovascular function integral value by age, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, body mass index, body fat rate, skeletal muscle content, and fasting blood glucose was 0.754. Conclusions:As the body mass index and body fat content increase and the skeletal muscle content decreases in the healthy physical examination population, the likelihood of abnormal cerebrovascular function integral values rises; the combination of age, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, body mass index, body fat percentage, skeletal muscle content, and fasting blood glucose indicators can predict the increased risk of cerebrovascular function integral values.
10.Prediction analysis of the number of pre-hospital emergency ambulance trips in Handan based on the LPro Ensemble Model
Feng TIAN ; Chengcheng BI ; Penghui LI ; Haifang ZHANG ; Tingting ZHAO ; Zhenjie YANG ; Xian WANG ; Jiaxuan GU ; Shitao ZHOU ; Zengjun JIN ; Zhen WANG ; Feifei ZHAO ; Xianhui SU ; Longqiang ZHANG ; Saicong LU
Chinese Journal of Emergency Medicine 2025;34(11):1530-1537
Objective:To investigate the application of time series models in forecasting pre-hospital emergency ambulance trips in Handan City and develop the LPro ensemble model for improved prediction accuracy to support emergency resource allocation.Methods:Pre-hospital emergency data from Handan Emergency Medical Command Center (2019-2023) were retrospectively analyzed. From 324 799 original records, 289 949 valid records were included after cleaning. The training set (2019-2022: 215 918 records) included 35 527 records in 2019, 52 015 in 2020, 61 836 in 2021, and 66 540 in 2022. The validation set (2023) contained 74 031 records. ARIMA, linear trend seasonal, exponential smoothing, and Prophet models were fitted to the training set. The LPro ensemble model was constructed using MAPE-based weighting (linear trend seasonal model: 0.38, Prophet: 0.62). Performance metrics included MAPE, RMSE, MAE, and R 2. Results:Data showed annual growth (compound annual growth rate 23.27%) and seasonal patterns (October peaks, February troughs). Ambulance dispatches increased annually with monthly cyclical patterns. For 2023 validation predictions: ARIMA (MAPE 8.76%, RMSE 619, MAE 491, R 2 0.4563), linear trend seasonal (MAPE 9.83%, RMSE 671, MAE 545, R 2 0.3608), Prophet (MAPE 8.43%, RMSE 562, MAE 503, R 2 0.5513), exponential smoothing (MAPE 8.08%, RMSE 643, MAE 410, R 2 0.4124). LPro model showed superior performance (MAPE 7.05%, RMSE 491, MAE 393, R 2 0.6570), with 16.37% lower MAPE, 12.63% lower RMSE, 21.87% lower MAE, and 19.17% higher R 2 versus Prophet. Conclusion:The LPro ensemble model substantially enhances prediction accuracy and reliability, offering scientific support for emergency resource optimization and dispatch scheduling in Handan City.

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