1.Clinical Efficacy and Economic Evaluation of 1293 Non-Severe Adult Patients with Community-Acquired Pneumonia Treated by the Jiangsu Traditional Chinese Medicine Diagnosis and Treatment Protocol for Dominant Diseases:A Multicenter,Retrospective Real-World Cohort Study
Ye MA ; Yeqing JI ; Zhichao WANG ; Fanchao FENG ; Mingzhi PU ; Hong LYU ; Xiaodong HU ; Gaohua FENG ; Xiaoqian FANG ; Guicai ZHANG ; Yanfen TANG ; Yeqing ZHANG ; Yao ZHUFU ; Wenpan PENG ; Hao WANG ; Cheng GU ; Zhichao ZHANG ; Shuang YANG ; Xinyu SUN ; Qi ZHAO ; Aojie GUO ; Xin TONG ; Zhuoyue WU ; Xiaoxiao WANG ; Jia LIU ; Hailang HE ; Xianmei ZHOU
Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2026;67(9):966-974
ObjectiveTo evaluate the clinical efficacy and economic value of the Jiangsu Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) Diagnosis and Treatment Protocol for Dominant Diseases (abbreviated as the Diagnosis and Treatment Protocol) in adult patients with non-severe community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) based on real-world clinical data. MethodsA retrospective real-world cohort study was conducted using electronic medical records of adult patients hospitalized for non-severe CAP from September 1st, 2023 to December 31st, 2024 across 10 TCM hospitals in Jiangsu province. Patients were classified into an exposure group and a non-exposure group based on whether they received Chinese herbal medicine (CHM) according to the Diagnosis and Treatment Protocol. The non-exposure group received only conventional western medicine, while the exposure group additionally received differentiated CHM for at least five consecutive days. Outcomes were compared between two patient groups, including cough resolution rate, sputum resolution rate (assessed by volume, color, and consistency), incidence of abnormal C-reactive protein (CRP), incidence of abnormal white blood cell (WBC) count, and radiographic resolution rate of pulmonary infiltrates on chest imaging. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify factors influencing clinical efficacy. Subgroup analyses were conducted according to age, gender, smoking status, history of hypertension, and pneumonia severity score (CURB-65), and the efficacy of treatment for cough and sputum was analyzed within each subgroup. Cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted using cough resolution rate as the outcome measure, evaluating the pharmacoeconomics of the two groups. ResultsA total of 1688 patients were included with 1293 in the exposure group and 395 in the non-exposure group. Compared to the non-exposure group, the exposure group demonstrated significantly higher resolution rates of cough, sputum volume, color, and consistency, as well as a significantly lower incidence of abnormal CRP (P<0.05). No statistically significant difference was observed between the groups in terms of abnormal WBC count and radiographic resolution rate of pulmonary infiltrates (P>0.05). Logistic regression analysis showed that the cough resolution rate in the exposure group was 1.83 times that of the non-exposure group, while the probabilities of resolution in sputum volume, color, and consistency were 1.37, 2.09, and 1.56 times those of the non-exposure group, respectively (P<0.05). Subgroup analyses showed that the exposure group achieved significantly higher cough resolution rates across most subgroups except for populations with a CURB-65 score ≥2 or those with a history of hypertension (P<0.05). Specifically, among females, patients aged ≥18 and <65 years, non-smokers, those without hypertension, and those with a CURB-65 score of 0, the exposure group showed a higher cough resolution rate than the non-exposure group (P<0.05). From an economic perspective, total hospitalization cost, length of stay, antibiotic cost, and CHM cost all differed significantly between groups (P<0.05). The cost-effectiveness ratio (CER) was 10,788.80 CNY/case in the exposure group, while 22,513.80 CNY/case in the non-exposure group. This implies that, compared with the exposure group, the non-exposure group incurred an additional 17,302.27 CNY to achieve one case of cough resolution. When the willingness-to-pay threshold ranged from 0 to 50,000 CNY, the probability of economic advantage was consistently higher in the exposure group than in the non-exposure group. ConclusionOn the basis of conventional western medicine, the addition of CHM in accordance with the Diagnosis and Treatment Protocol can effectively improve clinical symptoms, reduce inflammatory markers, promote clinical recovery, and is more cost-effective in treating adults with non-severe CAP.
2.Efficacy and Economic Evaluation of Weishi Qingjin Formula (苇石清金方)in the Treatment of Adult Community-Acquired Pneumonia with Phlegm-Heat Obstructing the Lung Syndrome:A Multicenter Retrospective Real-World Cohort Study
Yeqing JI ; Ye MA ; Zhichao WANG ; Fanchao FENG ; Mingzhi PU ; Hong LYU ; Xiaodong HU ; Gaohua FENG ; Xiaoqian FANG ; Guicai ZHANG ; Yanfen TANG ; Yeqing ZHANG ; Yao ZHUFU ; Wenpan PENG ; Hao WANG ; Cheng GU ; Zhichao ZHANG ; Shuang YANG ; Xinyu SUN ; Qi ZHAO ; Aojie GUO ; Xin TONG ; Zhuoyue WU ; Xiaoxiao WANG ; Jia LIU ; Hailang HE ; Xianmei ZHOU
Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2026;67(9):975-984
ObjectiveTo observe the real‑world effectiveness and economic outcomes of Weishi Qingjin Formula (苇石清金方, WQF) in the treatment of adult community‑acquired pneumonia (CAP) with phlegm‑heat obstructing the lung syndrome. MethodsBased on a multicenter, real-world retrospective cohort study, clinical data were collected from hospitalized adult patients diagnosed with non‑severe CAP and phlegm‑heat obstructing the lung syndrome in 10 traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) hospitals in Jiangsu province. Patients were divided into an exposure group (those who received oral WQF) and a non‑exposure group (those who did not). The following outcomes were compared between the two groups before and after treatment, which were remission rates of clinical symptoms including cough, expectoration (sputum volume, color, consistency), and chest pain, levels of inflammatory markers including C‑reactive protein (CRP) and white blood cell count (WBC), and the rate of pulmonary inflammatory absorption on chest CT. Subgroup analyses were performed based on age, gender, smoking status, presence of hypertension, and the severity of community-acquired pneumonia (CURB‑65) score, comparing the two groups in terms of cough remission rate, chest pain remission rate, and chest CT absorption rate. For health economic evaluation, cost‑effectiveness analysis was used to calculate the cost‑effectiveness ratio (CER) and incremental cost‑effectiveness ratio (ICER). Univariate sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were performed to test the robustness of the results. ResultsA total of 647 patients in the exposure group and 1491 patients in the non-exposure group were included in the final statistical analysis. There was no statistically significant difference in length of hospital stay, gender, marital status, smoking history, bronchoscopy history, and comorbidities between the groups (P>0.05), but age, CURB-65 score, and antibiotic use. The exposure group had significantly higher remission rates of cough and sputum consistency than the non-exposure group (P<0.05). After adjusting for confounders using propensity score matching and logistic regression, the cough remission rate in the exposure group was 1.49 times that of the non-exposure group (P<0.01). No significant difference was observed between groups in the reduction rates of CRP and WBC, and in the rate of pulmonary inflammatory absorption on chest CT (P>0.05). Subgroup analyses revealed that the cough remission rate in the exposure group was significantly better than that in the non-exposure group except for patients aged ≥65 years, smokers, hypertensive patients, those using other type antibiotics or not using antibiotics, and those with a CURB-65 score ≥1 (P<0.05). Among smokers, the chest pain remission rate in the exposure group was 4.38 times that of the non-exposure group (P<0.01). No significant difference in chest CT absorption rate was found between groups across subgroups of gender, age, hypertension status, or antibiotic type (P>0.05). In terms of economic evaluation, CER was 10,877.60 CNY/case in the exposure group and 16,773.10 CNY/case in the non-exposure group. Compared to the exposure group, the non-exposure group incurred an additional 15,034.26 CNY to achieve one case of cough resolution, indicating a more favorable cost-effectiveness profile. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis yielded results consistent with the cost-effectiveness analysis, confirming the robustness of the findings. ConclusionWQF demonstrates significant efficacy in improving cough symptoms in the treatment of adult CAP with phlegm-heat obstructing the lung syndrome, and also exhibits favorable economic benefits.
3.Clinical Efficacy and Economic Evaluation of 1293 Non-Severe Adult Patients with Community-Acquired Pneumonia Treated by the Jiangsu Traditional Chinese Medicine Diagnosis and Treatment Protocol for Dominant Diseases:A Multicenter,Retrospective Real-World Cohort Study
Ye MA ; Yeqing JI ; Zhichao WANG ; Fanchao FENG ; Mingzhi PU ; Hong LYU ; Xiaodong HU ; Gaohua FENG ; Xiaoqian FANG ; Guicai ZHANG ; Yanfen TANG ; Yeqing ZHANG ; Yao ZHUFU ; Wenpan PENG ; Hao WANG ; Cheng GU ; Zhichao ZHANG ; Shuang YANG ; Xinyu SUN ; Qi ZHAO ; Aojie GUO ; Xin TONG ; Zhuoyue WU ; Xiaoxiao WANG ; Jia LIU ; Hailang HE ; Xianmei ZHOU
Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2026;67(9):966-974
ObjectiveTo evaluate the clinical efficacy and economic value of the Jiangsu Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) Diagnosis and Treatment Protocol for Dominant Diseases (abbreviated as the Diagnosis and Treatment Protocol) in adult patients with non-severe community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) based on real-world clinical data. MethodsA retrospective real-world cohort study was conducted using electronic medical records of adult patients hospitalized for non-severe CAP from September 1st, 2023 to December 31st, 2024 across 10 TCM hospitals in Jiangsu province. Patients were classified into an exposure group and a non-exposure group based on whether they received Chinese herbal medicine (CHM) according to the Diagnosis and Treatment Protocol. The non-exposure group received only conventional western medicine, while the exposure group additionally received differentiated CHM for at least five consecutive days. Outcomes were compared between two patient groups, including cough resolution rate, sputum resolution rate (assessed by volume, color, and consistency), incidence of abnormal C-reactive protein (CRP), incidence of abnormal white blood cell (WBC) count, and radiographic resolution rate of pulmonary infiltrates on chest imaging. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify factors influencing clinical efficacy. Subgroup analyses were conducted according to age, gender, smoking status, history of hypertension, and pneumonia severity score (CURB-65), and the efficacy of treatment for cough and sputum was analyzed within each subgroup. Cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted using cough resolution rate as the outcome measure, evaluating the pharmacoeconomics of the two groups. ResultsA total of 1688 patients were included with 1293 in the exposure group and 395 in the non-exposure group. Compared to the non-exposure group, the exposure group demonstrated significantly higher resolution rates of cough, sputum volume, color, and consistency, as well as a significantly lower incidence of abnormal CRP (P<0.05). No statistically significant difference was observed between the groups in terms of abnormal WBC count and radiographic resolution rate of pulmonary infiltrates (P>0.05). Logistic regression analysis showed that the cough resolution rate in the exposure group was 1.83 times that of the non-exposure group, while the probabilities of resolution in sputum volume, color, and consistency were 1.37, 2.09, and 1.56 times those of the non-exposure group, respectively (P<0.05). Subgroup analyses showed that the exposure group achieved significantly higher cough resolution rates across most subgroups except for populations with a CURB-65 score ≥2 or those with a history of hypertension (P<0.05). Specifically, among females, patients aged ≥18 and <65 years, non-smokers, those without hypertension, and those with a CURB-65 score of 0, the exposure group showed a higher cough resolution rate than the non-exposure group (P<0.05). From an economic perspective, total hospitalization cost, length of stay, antibiotic cost, and CHM cost all differed significantly between groups (P<0.05). The cost-effectiveness ratio (CER) was 10,788.80 CNY/case in the exposure group, while 22,513.80 CNY/case in the non-exposure group. This implies that, compared with the exposure group, the non-exposure group incurred an additional 17,302.27 CNY to achieve one case of cough resolution. When the willingness-to-pay threshold ranged from 0 to 50,000 CNY, the probability of economic advantage was consistently higher in the exposure group than in the non-exposure group. ConclusionOn the basis of conventional western medicine, the addition of CHM in accordance with the Diagnosis and Treatment Protocol can effectively improve clinical symptoms, reduce inflammatory markers, promote clinical recovery, and is more cost-effective in treating adults with non-severe CAP.
4.Efficacy and Economic Evaluation of Weishi Qingjin Formula (苇石清金方)in the Treatment of Adult Community-Acquired Pneumonia with Phlegm-Heat Obstructing the Lung Syndrome:A Multicenter Retrospective Real-World Cohort Study
Yeqing JI ; Ye MA ; Zhichao WANG ; Fanchao FENG ; Mingzhi PU ; Hong LYU ; Xiaodong HU ; Gaohua FENG ; Xiaoqian FANG ; Guicai ZHANG ; Yanfen TANG ; Yeqing ZHANG ; Yao ZHUFU ; Wenpan PENG ; Hao WANG ; Cheng GU ; Zhichao ZHANG ; Shuang YANG ; Xinyu SUN ; Qi ZHAO ; Aojie GUO ; Xin TONG ; Zhuoyue WU ; Xiaoxiao WANG ; Jia LIU ; Hailang HE ; Xianmei ZHOU
Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2026;67(9):975-984
ObjectiveTo observe the real‑world effectiveness and economic outcomes of Weishi Qingjin Formula (苇石清金方, WQF) in the treatment of adult community‑acquired pneumonia (CAP) with phlegm‑heat obstructing the lung syndrome. MethodsBased on a multicenter, real-world retrospective cohort study, clinical data were collected from hospitalized adult patients diagnosed with non‑severe CAP and phlegm‑heat obstructing the lung syndrome in 10 traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) hospitals in Jiangsu province. Patients were divided into an exposure group (those who received oral WQF) and a non‑exposure group (those who did not). The following outcomes were compared between the two groups before and after treatment, which were remission rates of clinical symptoms including cough, expectoration (sputum volume, color, consistency), and chest pain, levels of inflammatory markers including C‑reactive protein (CRP) and white blood cell count (WBC), and the rate of pulmonary inflammatory absorption on chest CT. Subgroup analyses were performed based on age, gender, smoking status, presence of hypertension, and the severity of community-acquired pneumonia (CURB‑65) score, comparing the two groups in terms of cough remission rate, chest pain remission rate, and chest CT absorption rate. For health economic evaluation, cost‑effectiveness analysis was used to calculate the cost‑effectiveness ratio (CER) and incremental cost‑effectiveness ratio (ICER). Univariate sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were performed to test the robustness of the results. ResultsA total of 647 patients in the exposure group and 1491 patients in the non-exposure group were included in the final statistical analysis. There was no statistically significant difference in length of hospital stay, gender, marital status, smoking history, bronchoscopy history, and comorbidities between the groups (P>0.05), but age, CURB-65 score, and antibiotic use. The exposure group had significantly higher remission rates of cough and sputum consistency than the non-exposure group (P<0.05). After adjusting for confounders using propensity score matching and logistic regression, the cough remission rate in the exposure group was 1.49 times that of the non-exposure group (P<0.01). No significant difference was observed between groups in the reduction rates of CRP and WBC, and in the rate of pulmonary inflammatory absorption on chest CT (P>0.05). Subgroup analyses revealed that the cough remission rate in the exposure group was significantly better than that in the non-exposure group except for patients aged ≥65 years, smokers, hypertensive patients, those using other type antibiotics or not using antibiotics, and those with a CURB-65 score ≥1 (P<0.05). Among smokers, the chest pain remission rate in the exposure group was 4.38 times that of the non-exposure group (P<0.01). No significant difference in chest CT absorption rate was found between groups across subgroups of gender, age, hypertension status, or antibiotic type (P>0.05). In terms of economic evaluation, CER was 10,877.60 CNY/case in the exposure group and 16,773.10 CNY/case in the non-exposure group. Compared to the exposure group, the non-exposure group incurred an additional 15,034.26 CNY to achieve one case of cough resolution, indicating a more favorable cost-effectiveness profile. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis yielded results consistent with the cost-effectiveness analysis, confirming the robustness of the findings. ConclusionWQF demonstrates significant efficacy in improving cough symptoms in the treatment of adult CAP with phlegm-heat obstructing the lung syndrome, and also exhibits favorable economic benefits.
5.Value of demographic factors in early identification of pediatric malignant vasovagal syncope in head-up tilt test
Shuo WANG ; Yuwen WANG ; Hong CAI ; Ping LIU ; Fang LI ; Chuan WEN ; Liqun LIU ; Runmei ZOU ; Cheng WANG
Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics 2026;69(4):353-361
Background:
Malignant vasovagal syncope (VVS) is characterized by cardiac arrest lasting more than 3 seconds during a syncope episode or head-up tilt test (HUTT). We aim to conduct a risk assessment for potential malignant VVS before the HUTT by using economic, simple and convenient demographic data, in order to prevent adverse outcomes for pediatric VVS.Purpose: To explore the correlation between demographic factors and pediatric malignant VVS, and verify the value of these factors in early risk assessment for malignant VVS before HUTT, so as to optimize test safety and reduce adverse events.
Methods:
We conducted a retrospective analysis of the clinical data of 3,734 children who were initially diagnosed with VVS due to unexplained syncope and presyncope. Finally, 122 children who met the diagnostic criteria for malignant VVS were included in the malignant VVS group, and 661 children who did not meet the criteria during the same period were matched as the control group. By analyzing demographic data and other factors, we attempted to clarify the association between these factors and malignant VVS.
Results:
Linear relationship: age and body mass index (BMI) have independent protective effects on malignant VVS. For every 1-year increase in age and every 1 kg/m2 increase in BMI, the risk of malignant VVS decreases by 12% and 9%, respectively. Nonlinear relationship: When the age is <12.9 years old, for every additional year of age, the risk of malignant VVS decreases by 20%. For ages 12.9 years and above, the efficacy is not significant. There is no significant nonlinear relationship between BMI and malignant VVS.
Conclusion
Age and BMI are independent protective factors for pediatric malignant VVS. Before the age of 12.9 years, the incidence of malignant VVS gradually decreases with the increase in age, and thereafter there is no significant impact.
6.Differences in deltamethrin resistance and kdr gene mutation in Culex tritaeniorhynchus population in and outside the Yellow Sea wetland
Xiao-er ZHANG ; Zhi-ming WU ; Ye TIAN ; Qian CUI ; Yu-qian JI ; Huan WANG ; Shu-juan YANG ; Yi-chao ZHAO ; Yu WANG ; Hua-yu YIN ; Yu DING ; Guo-jin YAN ; Min-sen ZHAO ; Shou-gang ZHANG ; Bing-dong SONG ; Hong-na CHEN ; Jian GAO ; Wei-fang YANG ; Yu-fu ZHANG ; Hui LIU ; Hong-liang CHU
Acta Parasitologica et Medica Entomologica Sinica 2026;33(2):101-107
Objective To gain insights into the biological characteristics of different populations of Culex tritaeniorhynchus within and around the Yellow Sea wetland from the perspective of the occurrence of resistance, we investigated the levels of resistance to deltamethrin and kdr gene mutation in the wetland and its peripheral areas. Methods Specimens were collected from Cx. tritaeniorhynchus populations at two monitoring sites in the Rare Bird National Nature Reserve and Tiaozi Ni Wetland Scenic Area, and also from two populations in Yancheng City and the Liuhe District of Nanjing, and the resistance of these mosquitoes to deltamethrin was determined using the CDC biotest bottle method. For each concentration of deltamethrin assessed, a random subset of exposed specimens was selected for amplification of the kdr gene fragment, followed by Sanger sequencing to identify and analyze resistance-associated mutations. Results The LC50 levels of deltamethrin among mosquitoes from the four populations in Luhe, Yancheng, the Rare Bird National Nature Reserve and the Tiaozi Ni Wetland Scenic Area were 2.048 5, 7.798 2, 3.473 3, and 17.695 5 mg/mL, respectively, with corresponding concentrations of deltamethrin ranging from 0.005 to 5.000,0.050 to 50.000,0.050 to 25.000 and 0.050 to 50.000 mg/mL, respectively. Furthermore, the ranges of the KT50 values were 11.76-107.43, 67.05-216.30,29.77-107.43 and 28.40-329.51 min; the 1-h knockdown rates were 34.58%-99.15%, 9.52%-43.80%, 55.09%-73.01%, and 10.09%-68.07%; and the 24-h mortality rates were 12.15%-67.52%,9.52%-79.56%,13.17%-82.21%, and 11.01%-78.99%, respectively. With respect to kdr gene mutation, we assayed a total of 63,70,59, and 57 mosquitoes for the four populations, for which we detected L1014F mutation frequencies of 14.29%, 35.00%, 20.34%, and 31.58%, respectively, with a majority of these mutations being heterozygous for resistance. In addition, five adult mosquitoes were identified has having synonymous mutations at site 1011[i. e. , AAT(asparagine)mutation to AAC(asparagine)]. Conclusions Our findings revealed the clear resistance of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus to deltamethrin in the Yancheng region of the Yellow Sea wetland, and the resistance phenotype and kdr frequency of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus in the wetland environment were comparable to those of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus in the wetland environment, thereby indicating that the resistance of different populations of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus was homogeneous under the pressure of different insecticide selection within and around the wetland. However, the underlying mechanisms need to be further studied.
7.Investigations of tick habitats and potential pathogens carried in urban environments of Jiangsu Province
Zhi-ming WU ; Ye TIAN ; Wei-fang YANG ; Hong-na CHEN ; Jian GAO ; Hui LIU ; Yu-fu ZHANG ; Gan CAO ; Hong-liang CHU
Acta Parasitologica et Medica Entomologica Sinica 2026;33(3):192-197
Objective To investigate the species composition, distribution, density, and pathogen-carrying status of host-seeking ticks in urban environments of Jiangsu Province, and to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of tick-borne diseases in urban settings. Methods From April to September 2023, a survey on host-seeking ticks was conducted in three types of habitats (city parks, residential areas, and street greenbelts) across 54 counties (cities, districts) of 13 prefecture-level cities in Jiangsu Province by using the flagging method. RStudio 4.4.3 (Windows version) was employed to perform chi-square test analysis on the species composition of ticks across different months, and Friedman test (for multiple paired samples) was applied to analyze monthly changes in the average tick density index among different habitats. Quantitative real-time PCR was performed to detect pathogens in the captured ticks. Results A total of 863 host-seeking ticks were captured from 54 habitats in 24 counties (cities, districts) of 11 prefecture-level cities (Nanjing, Wuxi, Changzhou, Suzhou, Nantong, Huai'an, Yancheng, Yangzhou, Zhenjiang, Taizhou, and Suqian) in Jiangsu Province, whereas no ticks were captured in Xuzhou and Lianyungang. The collected ticks belonged to three species, with Haemaphysalis longicornis being the dominant species (accounting for 82.62%), followed by Haemaphysalis flava and Hae. phasiana. The average density index of ticks in positive habitats was 3.20 ticks/ (flag·100 m). In terms of tick density among prefecture-level cities, Wuxi had the highest density[13.55 ticks/(flag·100 m)], whereas Nanjing and Taizhou had the lowest[both,0.20 ticks/(flag·100 m)]. With respect to the types of positive habitats,46 positive city parks,7 positive residential areas, and 1 positive street greenbelt were found, with the average tick density index being 3.46, 1.86, and 3.60 ticks/flag · 100 m, respectively. No statistically significant differences were observed in the monthly variations in the average tick density index among different habitats (P>0.05). Pathogen detection showed no Bandavirus dabieense, Rickettsia, or Borrelia burgdorferi in the collected ticks. Conclusions Host-seeking ticks have established populations in urban environments across most prefecture-level cities in Jiangsu Province, with Hae. longicornis identified as the dominant species. City parks serve as the primary breeding habitats for these ticks. Strengthening tick surveillance and control measures in densely populated and frequently visited areas, such as city parks and residential neighborhoods, is crucial for the effective prevention and control of urban tick-borne diseases.
8.Construction of a postoperative mortality risk model for patients with acute aortic dissection based on XGBoost-SHAP method
Xin ZHANG ; Min FANG ; Yi CAO ; Ting-Ting LI ; Xian-Kong LIU ; Jia-Yi DANG ; Xue-Sen ZHAO ; Hong-Qin REN ; Jia-Ze GENG ; Kai-Wen WANG ; Tie-Sheng HAN ; Yong-Bo ZHAO ; Dong MA
Medical Journal of Chinese People's Liberation Army 2025;50(10):1226-1234
Objective To develop a predictive model for postoperative mortality risk in patients with acute aortic dissection(AAD)using the Extreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost)algorithm combined with Shapley Additive Explanation(SHAP),and to establish a prediction website to serve as a diagnostic and therapeutic support platform for clinicians and patients.Methods A retrospective cohort study design was adopted.Data from 782 AAD patients who underwent surgical treatment at the Fourth Hospital of Hebei Medical University from January 2013 to December 2023 were collected,including basic information and initial serum biomarker test results.Patients were randomly divided into training and test sets at a 7:3 ratio.An external validation set consisting of 313 AAD patients admitted to the Second Hospital of Hebei Medical University from January 2020 to December 2023 was also established for further model validation.Variables were screened using LASSO regression,and an XGBoost machine learning model was constructed and interpreted using SHAP.The predictive performance of the model was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve analysis.Using the Shiny package,the XGBoost model was deployed to shinyapps.io to create a prediction website for postoperative mortality risk in AAD patients.One patient was selected by simple random sampling from the test set and the external validation set respectively for the prediction example on the Shiny webpage.Results The XGBoost model demonstrated high predictive performance for postoperative mortality in AAD patients,with area under the ROC curve(AUC)values of 0.928(95%CI 0.901-0.956)in the training set,0.919(95%CI 0.891-0.949)in the test set,and 0.941(95%CI 0.915-0.967)in the external validation set.SHAP values indicated the following order of variable importance in the model(from highest to lowest):"lactate dehydrogenase""blood chlorine""multiple organ injury""carbon dioxide combining power""prothrombin time""α-hydroxybutyric acid""creatine kinase isoenzyme""Stanford classification""combined use of bedside blood purification""gender""acute kidney injury""gastrointestinal bleeding""brain injury"and"shock".A risk prediction website for adverse postoperative outcomes in AAD patients was developed using XGBoost-SHAP method(https://dun-dunxiaolu.shinyapps.io/document/)and validated with examples.One randomly selected patient from each of the test and external validation sets was applied:the predicted mortality risk value for patient 1(who died postoperatively)was 0.9539,and that for patient 2(who survived postoperatively)was 0.0206.Conclusions The XGBoost-SHAP model demonstrates high accuracy in predicting postoperative mortality risk for AAD patients.The online prediction tool established based on this model enhances the identification efficiency of high-risk postoperative mortality patients.
9.Safety and effectiveness of ustekinumab for Crohn's disease
Liu LIU ; Ke-Fang JIANG ; Yi-Fei CHEN ; Yi-Dan JIN ; Yi-Hong FAN
Medical Journal of Chinese People's Liberation Army 2025;50(10):1277-1283
Objective To analyze the efficacy and safety of ustekinumab(UST)in patients with moderate-to-severe Crohn's disease(CD),and to identify factors influencing clinical outcomes.Methods Data were retrospectively collected from patients with moderate-to-severe CD treated with UST in the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang Chinese Medical University and Hangzhou Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine between November 2020 and May 2023.Patients were categorized into first-line(not treated with biologic agents,n=68)and second-line(treated with biologic agents,n=66)treatment groups based on prior use of biologic agents.Baseline characteristics,including age,sex,smoking status,disease duration,age at diagnosis,lesion site,disease behavior,perianal disease,history of intestinal surgery,and CD-related drug use,were compared between the two groups.Crohn's disease activity indices(CDAI)were recorded at baseline,week 14,and week 52 to assess the clinical efficacy at weeks 14 and 52.Endoscopic evaluations were performed at baseline and week 52 to evaluate endoscopic efficacy at week 52.The 52-week drug persistence rate and safety profile were also analyzed.Influencing factors related to clinical outcomes were evaluated using univariate and multivariate logistic regression.Results A total of 134 patients with moderate-to-severe CD treated with UST were included.At week 14,clinical response and remission rates were 75.4%(101/134)and 33.6%(45/134),respectively,with no significant difference in clinical efficacy between first-line and second-line groups(clinical response rate:77.9%vs.72.7%,P=0.484;clinical remission rate:38.2%vs.28.8%,P=0.247).At week 52,clinical response and remission rates were 79.9%(107/134)and 56.0%(75/134),respectively.The rates of endoscopic response and remission were 70.9%(95/134)and 38.8%(52/134),respectively.There were no significant differences in clinical efficacy(clinical response rate:80.9%vs.78.8%,P=0.763;clinical remission rate:60.3%vs.51.5%,P=0.306)and endoscopic efficacy(endoscopic response rate:76.5%vs.65.2%,P=0.149;endoscopic remission rate:42.6%vs.34.8%,P=0.354)between the two groups.The 52-week drug persistence rate was 85.8%(115/134),and the adverse reaction rate was 4.5%(6/134).Compared with first-line treatment group,biologic-experienced patients had a significantly higher proportion of dose-optimized therapy in second-line treatment group(45.5%vs.22.1%,P=0.004).Multivariate logistic regression showed that the 14-week clinical response was a significant predictor of 52-week clinical remission,while perianal disease and intestinal surgery history were significant factors associated with treatment failure(P<0.05).Conclusions UST demonstrates significant efficacy in improving clinical and endoscopic outcomes for moderate-to-severe CD patients,with a favorable safety profile.Clinical response at 14 weeks is strongly predictive of clinical remission at 52 weeks.Patients with perianal disease or a history of intestinal surgery were at higher risk of treatment failure.
10.Quality consistency evaluation of Tongmai preparations
Jia-hui XU ; Yu-hong LIU ; Zhi-fang HUANG ; Yun-hua LIU ; Yan CHEN ; Ting-ting XU ; Jin-hai YI
Chinese Traditional Patent Medicine 2025;47(3):709-716
AIM To evaluate the quality consistency of Tongmai Granules,Tongmai Tablets,Tongmai Capsules and Tongmai Oral Liquid.METHODS The HPLC fingerprints were established,after which the contents of danshensu,protocatechuic aldehyde,3'-hydroxy puerarin,puerarin,puerarin apioside,daidzin,ferulic acid,salvianolic acid B and salvianolic acid A were determined,and cluster analysis and principal component analysis were adopted in the quality analysis from the perspective of daily intake.RESULTS There were 21 common peaks in the fingerprints for 39 batches of samples with the similarities of 0.765-0.997.Various batches of samples were clustered into 5 categories,2 principal components demonstrated the accumulative variance contribution rate of 83.53% .The daily intakes of various constituents in different dosage forms exhibited obvious differences,especially for that of salvianolic acid B,which were low in tablets and capsules,and their heterogeneities existed among the same dosage forms.CONCLUSION This simple and accurate method can provide a reference for the quality evaluation of Tongmai preparations from different manufacturers.


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