1.Active Ingredients of Bupleuri Radix in Treatment of Central Nervous System: A Review
Shuhuan YANG ; Xin JIANG ; Runda YUAN ; Fang LU
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(2):325-334
Diseases of the central nervous system have become a growing global health concern. At present, there are many adverse reactions in the treatment with Western medicine. In contrast, traditional Chinese medicine has shown unique efficacy and rich clinical practice accumulation in diseases of the central nervous system. As a traditional Chinese medicine, Bupleuri Radix has played an important role in the treatment of neurological diseases through multi-target regulation, multi-pathway intervention, and multi-pathway mechanism of action. In recent years, with the in-depth study of the pharmacological effects of Bupleuri Radix, it has been found that the active ingredients such as saikosaponin, baicalin, quercetin, and kaempferol in Bupleuri Radix can be used as the main material basis for the treatment of neurological diseases. The results of this study showed that in neurodegenerative diseases, active ingredients of Bupleuri Radix can inhibit β-amyloid (Aβ) deposition and abnormal phosphorylation of microtubule-associated protein (Tau protein) in Alzheimer's disease, regulate the nuclear factor-κB/nuclear factor E2 related factor 2 (NF-κB/Nrf2) pathway to play the anti-inflammatory role, and alleviate α-Synuclein (α-Syn) aggregation and mitochondrial damage in Parkinson's disease. In epilepsy, depression, and cerebral ischemia, they can improve symptoms by regulating neurotransmitters, oxidative stress, and apoptosis pathways, and inhibit brain glioma proliferation. However, the mechanism of action has not been fully elucidated, and the complexity of compound components and poor blood-brain barrier penetration limit their clinical application. In the future, it is necessary to integrate multi-omics, network pharmacology, and nano-delivery technologies, focus on the optimization of active ingredient group compounds and the precise guidance of biomarkers, accelerate the development of innovative therapies for Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease, and other diseases for laying a solid theoretical foundation for further development and application and inspiring new research ideas.
2.Multidimensional Innovation for medical-rehabilitation integration
Bin LIAN ; Lin ZHOU ; Qinfeng WU ; Jiajia WANG ; Wei LU ; Guoen FANG
Chinese Journal of Rehabilitation Theory and Practice 2026;32(1):40-44
ObjectiveTo conduct a theoretical study on the medical-rehabilitation integration. MethodsStarting from the background, objectives and content of the medical-rehabilitation integration, this study analyzed its innovative points from the dimensions of conceptual innovation, organizational innovation, model innovation and technological innovation. Results and ConclusionThe medical-rehabilitation integration is an innovation in medical services that takes conceptual innovation as the forerunner, organizational innovation as the foundation, model innovation as the carrier and technological innovation as the core.
3.Mechanism of Acanthopanacis Senticosi Radix et Rhizoma seu Caulis Extract in Treating Parkinson's Disease Based on Lipidomics
Ningxia LU ; Ao GAO ; Yehao WANG ; Jinjin YANG ; Yi LU ; Fang LU ; Shumin LIU
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(6):91-99
ObjectiveAbnormal lipids in neurons can cause the accumulation of α-synuclein(α-syn). This study aimed to explore the mechanism of Acanthopanacis Senticosi Radix et Rhizoma seu Caulis extract (ASH) in treating Parkinson's disease (PD) mice using lipidomics combined with network pharmacology. MethodsMice were divided into the blank group, model group and ASH (45.5 mg·kg-1) group. Motor ability was evaluated by pole climbing time and autonomous activity count; The oxidative stress indicators were detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Lipid biomarkers in brain tissues were screened and identified by ultra-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (UPLC-MS/MS), and metabolic pathway analysis was conducted. The key targets of ASH for PD treatment were explored using network pharmacology. The Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) database was used for pathway enrichment analysis, and the "compound-reaction-enzyme-gene" network was constructed using the MetScape plugin. The protein expression levels of glutathione S-transferase P1 (GSTP1), glutathione S-transferase Mu 2 (GSTM2), prostaglandin peroxide synthase 1 (PTGS1), prostaglandin peroxide synthase 2 (PTGS2), and prostaglandin E synthase (PTGES) were validated by Western blot. ResultsCompared with the blank group, the model group showed significantly prolonged pole climbing time and reduced autonomous activity count (P<0.01). Compared with the model group, the ASH group demonstrated significantly faster pole climbing and increased autonomous activity count (P<0.01). The model group exhibited significantly decreased superoxide dismutase (SOD) and glutathione peroxidase (GSH-Px) levels, and increased malondialdehyde (MDA) level in brain tissues compared with the blank group (P<0.01). The ASH group showed increased SOD and GSH-Px levels and decreased MDA level compared with the model group (P<0.05, P<0.01). Lipidomics analysis identified 10 differential metabolites and 8 differential metabolic pathways. Network pharmacological analysis revealed 213 intersection targets between ASH components and PD, with KEGG enrichment involving the sphingolipid signaling pathway, lipid arteriosclerosis, phosphoinositide 3-kinase/protein kinase B(PI3K/Akt) signaling pathway, mitogen-activated protein kinase(MAPK) signaling pathway, and hypoxia inducible factor-1(HIF-1) signaling pathway. Integrated lipidomics and network pharmacology analysis highlighted the central role of the arachidonic acid metabolic pathway. The Western blot results showed that ASH effectively up-regulated GSTP1, GSTM2, and PTGS1 protein expression, and down-regulated PTGS2 and PTGES protein expression. ConclusionASH can ameliorate behavioral deficits, exert antioxidant effects, regulate lipid differential metabolites and the arachidonic acid metabolic pathway, thereby exerting therapeutic effects in PD model mice.
4.Exploring Mechanism of Anti-atherosclerosis Effect of Huangqi Chifengtang Based on AMPK/PPARα Signaling Pathway and NLRP3 Inflammasome
Yuqin LIANG ; Jie LIU ; Chi ZHANG ; Pingping CHEN ; Fang LU ; Shumin LIU
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(1):131-139
ObjectiveTo explore the improving effect of Huangqi Chifengtang(HCT) on atherosclerosis(AS), and elucidate its mechanism in relation to adenosine monophosphate-activated protein kinase(AMPK)/peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor α(PPARα) signaling pathway and nucleotide-binding oligomerization domain(NOD)-like receptor thermal protein domain associated protein 3(NLRP3) inflammasome. MethodsEight C57BL/6J mice were set as the normal group, and 32 ApoE-/- mice were randomly divided into the model group, the positive drug group(atorvastatin, 5 mg·kg-1·d-1), HCT low- and high-dose groups(1.95, 3.90 g·kg-1·d-1). ApoE-/- mice were fed with high-fat and high-cholesterol feed to establish an AS mouse model. After modeling, they were orally administered corresponding dose of drugs for 28 days, while the normal and model groups received an equal volume of physiological saline via oral gavage. Hematoxylin-eosin(HE) staining was used to observe the pathological status of the aorta and liver in mice, Biochemical testing and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay(ELISA) were used to detect the levels of total cholesterol(TC), triglycerides(TG), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol(LDL-C), alanine aminotransferase(ALT), aspartate aminotransferase(AST), C-reactive protein(CRP), interleukin(IL)-1β, IL-18 in the serum, as well as superoxide dismutase(SOD), malondialdehyde(MDA), and reduced glutathione(GSH) in the liver. Real-time fluorescence quantitative polymerase chain reaction(Real-time PCR) was used to measure the mRNA expression levels of NLRP3, apoptosis-associated speck-like protein(ASC), cysteinyl aspartate specific proteinase-1(Caspase-1), Toll-like receptor 4(TLR4) in the aorta, and fatty acid synthase(FAS), stearoyl-CoA desaturase 1(SCD1), PPARα, and carnitine palmitoyltransferase 1A(CPT1A) in the liver. Immunohistochemistry was used to determine the protein expressions of NLRP3, Caspase-1, and ASC in the aorta, and Western blot was used to measure the protein expressions of AMPK, p-AMPK, sterol regulatory element binding protein-1c(SREBP-1c), CPT1A, and FAS in the liver. ResultsCompared with the normal group, the model group showed a significant increase in lipid plaque deposition in the aorta and lipid accumulation in the liver, the levels of TC, TG, LDL-C, AST, ALT, IL-1β, IL-18 and CRP in the serum were significantly increased(P<0.01), and the mRNA and protein expressions of aortic TLR4, NLRP3, Caspase-1 and ASC were significantly upregulated(P<0.01). The levels of SOD and GSH in the liver were significantly reduced, while the level of MDA was significantly increased(P<0.01). The mRNA expressions of FAS and SCD1 in the liver were significantly downregulated, while the mRNA expressions of PPARα and CPT1A were significantly upregulated. The protein expressions of p-AMPK/AMPK and CPT1A in the liver were significantly reduced, while the expressions of SREBP-1c and FAS proteins were significantly increased(P<0.01). Compared with the model group, the low- and high-dose HCT groups showed significant improvements in aortic plaques and hepatic lipid deposition. The levels of TC, LDL-C, AST, IL-1β and IL-18 in the serum of the low-dose HCT group, as well as TC, TG, LDL-C, AST, ALT, IL-1β, IL-18 and CRP in the serum of the high-dose HCT group, were significantly reduced(P<0.01). The mRNA expressions of TLR4, NLRP3 and Caspase-1 in the aorta of the low-dose HCT group, as well as TLR4, NLRP3, Caspase-1 and ASC in the aorta of the high-dose HCT group, were significantly downregulated(P<0.01). The protein expressions of Caspase-1 and ASC in the aorta of the low-dose HCT group, as well as NLRP3, Caspase-1 and ASC in the high-dose HCT group, were significantly downregulated(P<0.01). The levels of SOD and GSH in the liver of the low- and high-dose HCT groups were significantly increased, while the level of MDA in the high-dose HCT group was significantly decreased(P<0.05, P<0.01). In the HCT-treated group, the mRNA expressions of FAS and SCD1 in the liver were significantly upregulated, while the mRNA expressions of PPARα and CPT1A were significantly downregulated, the protein expressions of p-AMPK/AMPK and CPT1A in the liver were significantly increased, while the protein expressions of SREBP-1c and FAS were significantly decreased(P<0.05, P<0.01). ConclusionHCT can improve lipid metabolism by activating the AMPK/PPARα pathway and inhibit NLRP3 inflammasome-mediated inflammatory responses, thereby reducing hepatic lipid deposition and AS plaque formation.
5.Relationship between non-suicidal self-injury behaviors, impulsivity, and emotional regulation in adolescents with depressive disorder
Mingfei ZHANG ; Xinyu CHEN ; Fang LIANG ; Zhe CHEN ; Lu QIAN ; Zhijia LI
Sichuan Mental Health 2026;39(1):21-26
BackgroundAdolescents with depressive disorder often engage in non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) behaviors, which severely impacts their physical and mental health. Impulsivity and emotional regulation are key factors influencing NSSI behaviors. However, research on the mechanisms through which impulsivity and emotional regulation affect NSSI behaviors in adolescent depressive disorder patients with NSSI remains insufficient, limiting the development of effective intervention strategies. ObjectiveTo explore the differences in impulsivity and emotion regulation abilities between adolescent patients with depressive disorder accompanied by and without NSSI behaviors, and to analyze the association between NSSI behaviors and impulsivity and emotion regulation abilities in adolescent patients with depressive disorder accompanied by NSSI behaviors. MethodsA total of 184 adolescents hospitalized in the child and adolescent psychiatry department of Wuxi Mental Health Center from October 2023 to August 2024, who met the diagnostic criteria for depressive disorder according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, fifth edition (DSM-5), were consecutively enrolled as study subjects. Based on the diagnostic criteria for NSSI in DSM-5, patients were divided into NSSI group (n=108) and non-NSSI group (n=76). The Barratt Impulsiveness Scale-11 (BIS-11), the Emotion Regulation Questionnaire (ERQ), the Adolescent Self-Harm Questionnaire, and the Positive and Negative Suicide Ideation (PANSI) were used for assessment. Spearman correlation analysis was employed to explore the correlation between the scores of the Adolescent Self-Harm Questionnaire and the scores of BIS-11 and ERQ in the NSSI group. Multiple regression analysis was conducted to examine the effects of impulsivity and emotion regulation on NSSI behaviors in the NSSI group. ResultsCompared to the non-NSSI group, the NSSI group showed significantly higher scores in BIS-11 non-planned impulsivity (Z=-4.181, P<0.05), action impulsivity (t=4.944, P<0.05), cognitive impulsivity (Z=-3.392, P<0.05), and total score (t=4.763, P<0.05), and lower scores in the cognitive reappraisal of ERQ (t=-4.094, P<0.05) and total score (Z=-2.299, P<0.05), and higher scores in the expression inhibition of ERQ (Z=-3.019, P<0.05). The correlation analysis results showed that the score of the adolescent self-harm questionnaire in the NSSI group was positively correlated with the behavioral impulsivity factor score in the BIS-11 (r=0.434, P<0.05). Multiple regression analysis indicated that action impulsivity factor was a significant correlate of self-injury behaviors in the NSSI group (B=0.855, P<0.05), explaining 22.30% of the total variance. ConclusionAdolescent patients with depressive disorder accompanied by NSSI behaviors exhibit higher levels of impulsivity and poorer emotional regulation abilities. Action impulsivity may play a significant role in the mechanism of NSSI behaviors. [Funded by Wuxi Municipal Health Commission Research Project (number, Q202320)]
6.Association of physical activity with overweight/obesity, depressive symptoms and their co-occurrence among junior and senior high school students
LU Qu, CHEN Manman, WANG Jiahui, JIANG Yu, GU Fang, DONG Bin
Chinese Journal of School Health 2026;47(3):355-359
Objective:
To analyze the associations of physical activity with overweight/obesity, depressive symptoms, and their co-occurrence among junior and senior high school students, so as to provide reference for optimizing physical activity intervention strategies and promoting healthy lifestyles.
Methods:
From March to November 2023, a cross sectional survey was conducted among 90 457 junior and senior high school students aged 11-18 years in Zhejiang Province using a stratified cluster random sampling method. Data on physical activity and dietary behavior were collected through questionnaires, height and weight were measured. Depressive symptoms were assessed using the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D). The Chi-square test was used to examine differences, and Logistic regression was applied to evaluate the associations of physical activity characteristics with overweight/obesity, depressive symptoms, and their co-occurrence. Additionally, the effectiveness of physical activity performed on rest days versus work days was examined.
Results:
The prevalence of overweight/obesity, depressive symptoms, and their co-occurrence among junior and senior high school students were 25.1%, 27.9%, and 6.7%, respectively, with significant sex differences ( χ 2=2 005.3, 587.7, 99.6, all P <0.01). Logistic regression analysis showed that students with insufficient physical activity had a higher risk of overweight/obesity compared with those with sufficient physical activity ( OR=1.12, 95%CI=1.06-1.17, P <0.01). Comparing to students who exercised 0-1 day per week, those who exercised 5-7 days per week were associated with a reduced risk of overweight/obesity and depressive symptoms ( OR=0.93, 95%CI =0.90-0.97; OR=0.95, 95%CI =0.91-0.99, both P <0.05). When total activity volume and frequency were held constant, students with sufficient rest day physical activity had lower risks of overweight/obesity, depressive symptoms, and their co-occurrence than those with insufficient rest day activity (all P < 0.01).
Conclusions
Sufficient amount of physical activity and higher frequency of rest day physical activity are significantly associated with lower risks of overweight/obesity, depressive symptoms, and their co-occurrence in adolescents. Physical activity performed on rest days may confer greater health benefits than activity performed on work days.
7.Study on the correlation between HLA antibodies and pregnancy-related factors, and the predictive value of a random-forest model among female blood donors in Nanning
Fang LU ; Huihui MO ; Wujin SU ; Zhoulin ZHONG ; Hengcong LI ; Yuchen HUANG ; Yuxi CHEN ; Lilan LI ; Yan ZHOU
Chinese Journal of Blood Transfusion 2026;39(3):367-372
Objective: To explore the association between the HLA antibody positivity rate in female blood donors and pregnancy history, number of pregnancies, interval from the last pregnancy to blood donation, and age, to identify associated variables using a univariate generalized additive model (GAM), and to further analyze the predictive role of characteristic variables for HLA antibody positivity using a random forest model. Methods: HLA antibody detection was performed on 391 female blood donors using the Luminex immunomagnetic bead method. The correlation between pregnancy-related factors and HLA antibodies was analyzed using the Chi-square test. Based on R software, a univariate GAM was first constructed to analyze the association types between characteristic variables and the HLA antibody positivity rate, followed by the construction of a random forest model to evaluate the predictive value of the variables. Results: Among the 391 female blood donors without a transfusion history, the overall HLA antibody positivity rate was 26.34%. The positivity rate in donors with a pregnancy history was significantly higher than that in those without (30.09% vs 9.72%, P<0.05), and HLA antibody positivity rate increased linearly with the number of pregnancies (P<0.05). In the univariate GAM, age and number of deliveries exhibited a non-linear association with the HLA antibody positivity rate (the positivity rate increased sharply between 25-35 years of age and stabilized after 3 deliveries). Besides, the interval from the last pregnancy to blood donation showed a linear association with the HLA antibody positivity rate, and the positivity rate decreased as the interval prolonged (P<0.05). In the random forest model, age (mean decrease gini=29.26) and interval from the last pregnancy to blood donation (mean decrease gini=22.02) were core predictive variables: age was more conducive to identifying positive samples, while the interval from the last pregnancy to blood donation was more helpful for excluding negative samples. The number of deliveries (mean decrease accuracy=16.98) made a significant contribution to predicting positive samples, whereas the number of abortions had no impact. The model had an AUC of 0.583 (95% CI: 0.593 8-0.770 2), indicating a certain predictive value. Conclusion: The associated variables identified by the univariate GAM model, including age, interval from the last pregnancy to blood donation, and number of deliveries, provide a basis for key variables in the random forest model. All three variables have predictive value for HLA antibody positivity, which can provide evidence-based support for personalized transfusion management and stratified screening of female blood donors in this region.
8.Regulation of Notch1/Hes1 signaling axis by total flavonoids of Drynariae Rhizoma for promoting chondrocyte autophagy and inhibiting apoptosis:a mechanistic study
China Pharmacy 2026;37(8):1027-1032
OBJECTIVE To investigate the effects of total flavonoids of Drynariae Rhizoma (TFRD) on autophagy and apoptosis in LPS-induced chondrocytes via the regulation of the Notch1/hairy and enhancer of split 1 (Notch1/Hes1) signaling axis. METHODS Human chondrocyte cell line C28/I2 cells were cultured with 5 μg/mL LPS to esta blish in vitro inflammatory injury model. The cells were separated into normal control group, model group, TFRD group (200 μg/mL), TFRD+peroxiredoxin 1 (Prdx1) small interfering RNA (si-Prdx1) group and TFRD+si-Prdx1 negative control (si-NC) group, with 6 replicate wells in each group. Cells were transfected with si-Prdx1 or si-NC for 24 hours, pretreated with TFRD for 2 hours, and then exposed to LPS, with a total culture duration of 48 hours. Apoptotic rate, the proportion of apoptotic cells, monodansylcadaverine (MDC) fluorescence intensity, as well as the contents of matrix metalloproteinase-13 (MMP-13), a disintegrin and metalloproteinase with thrombospondin motifs 5 (ADAMTS5), and cartilage oligomeric matrix protein (COMP) were measured. Additionally, the protein expression levels of X-linked inhibitor of apoptosis protein (XIAP), poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase 1 (PARP1), Beclin-1, microtubule-associated protein 1 light chain 3 Ⅱ/Ⅰ (LC3-Ⅱ/Ⅰ), PTEN-induced putative kinase 1 (PINK1), Notch1, Hes1, and Prdx1 were assessed. RESULTS Compared with model group, the apoptotic rate, the proportion of apoptotic cells, the contents of MMP-13 and ADAMTS5 as well as protein expressions of PARP1 were significantly decreased, while MDC fluorescence intensity, COMP content, protein expressions of XIAP, Beclin-1, LC3-Ⅱ/Ⅰ, PINK1, Notch1, Hes1 and Prdx1 were significantly increased ( P <0.05). Compared with TFRD+si-NC group, the changes in the aforementioned indicators (except for Notch1 and Hes1) in the cells of the TFRD+si-Prdx1 group were significantly reversed ( P <0.05). CONCLUSIONS TFRD may activate the Notch1/Hes1 signaling axis, and up-regulate the expression of the downstream target molecule Prdx1, thereby inhibiting LPS-induced chondrocyte apoptosis, promoting protective autophagy, and consequently improving cartilage metabolic homeostasis.
9.Clinical characteristics and genetic analysis of 22 Chinese pedigrees affected with Neurofibromatosis type I.
Bingjie HU ; Xianhong DING ; Yang LU ; Hongliang CHEN ; Shuaishuai CHEN ; Mengyi XU ; Yicheng FANG ; Bo SHEN
Chinese Journal of Medical Genetics 2026;43(1):19-30
OBJECTIVE:
To explore the genetic variants and phenotypic characteristics of patients with Neurofibromatosis type I (NF1).
METHODS:
Twenty two NF1 patients who presented at Enze Medical (Center) Group in Taizhou between 2018 and 2024 were selected as the study subjects. Clinical phenotype and family history were collected for the patients. Whole exome sequencing (WES) was carried out for the 22 probands to screen the variants of NF1 gene. Candidate variants were verified by Sanger sequencing of their family members. This study was approved by the Medical Ethics Committee of the Hospital (Ethics No.: K20230902).
RESULTS:
The 22 probands were diagnosed between the age of 5 months to 47 years old, and have all shown cafe au lait spots on their skin. Seventeen patients exhibited the phenotype at birth, and 11 had various degrees of neurofibromatosis. Among them, probands 1 and 13 underwent surgical resection of the tumor but had recurred, while proband 12 had amputation due to the huge size and serious impact of the neurofibroma and had no recurrence. Five patients had various degrees of scoliosis. In total 22 germline mutations and one somatic mutation were identified among the 22 families, with 5 variants unreported previously, including 1 nonsense mutation c.1603C>T (Q535*), 3 frameshift mutations [c.7268_7269delCA (Thr2423fs), c.2293del (Arg765Alafs*26), and c.5433_5438delinsGC (Phe1812ArgfsTer50)], and 1 deletion involving exons 41-44 of the NF1 gene and adjacent introns. Proband 13 was found to harbor germline mutation c.6796C>T (Gln2266Ter) and somatic mutation c.1019_1020del (Ser340Cysfs Ter12) in the peripheral blood and tumor tissue, respectively. Among the 22 NF1 probands, 6 had received treatment due to severe illness. Proband 1 had tumor resection in the right upper limb, but was found to have malignant lung tumor and died during follow-up. Proband 12 had multiple recurrence of neurofibroma in the left ring finger. Proband 4 underwent spinal correction surgery due to severe scoliosis. Proband 11 had died due to a central nervous system disease. Among the 22 germline mutations, 6 had led to the occurrence of truncated proteins, which may have a more severe impact on the phenotype.
CONCLUSION
This study investigated the genetic variants and clinical phenotypes of 22 NF1 families and identified 5 novel variants of the NF1 gene, which has expanded the genotypic and phenotypic spectra of the NF1. Preliminary studies have identified an association between truncated mutations, young age, and severe phenotypes, which may provide important clues for prognosis evaluation. For the clinical diagnosis and treatment of NF1, it is necessary to consider the phenotypic characteristics and genetic testing in combination with genetic counseling and long-term follow-up.
Humans
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Neurofibromatosis 1/pathology*
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Male
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Female
;
Pedigree
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Adult
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Child
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Child, Preschool
;
Middle Aged
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Adolescent
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Infant
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Young Adult
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Neurofibromin 1/genetics*
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Phenotype
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Asian People/genetics*
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Mutation
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Exome Sequencing
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East Asian People
10.Epidemic characteristics and prediction model analysis of chickenpox in Urumqi in 2014-2019
Zhimeng WANG ; Weiyi FANG ; Yaoqin LU ; Tudi ZULIPIKAER ; Wei CHEN ; Yilihamu SENAWAER ; Kailun ZHANG
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2025;36(1):53-56
Objective To construct an optimal prediction model of chickenpox in Urumqi, and to provide reference for formulating the prevention and control strategies of chickenpox. Methods The multivariate autoregressive moving average model (ARIMAX) and random forest model (RF) were established based on the monthly incidence of chickenpox in Urumqi from 2014 to 2018, and the monthly incidence of chickenpox in 2019 was used to test the models and evaluate their prediction effect. The prediction performance of the two models was compared, and the best model was selected to predict the incidence of chickenpox in Urumqi. Results The incidence of chickenpox in Urumqi showed a regular bimodal distribution with obvious seasonality, and it showed a slow upward trend from July 2014 to December 2019. The fitting model was ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,1)12, the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) of ARIMAX model training set were 1.29 and 0.95, respectively, and the RMSE and MAE of the test set were 1.88 and 1.44, respectively. The training set RMSE and MAE of RF model were 1.56 and 1.56, respectively, and the test set RMSE and MAE were 4.83 and 3.96, respectively. Conclusion The performance of ARIMAX model is better than that of RF model, which can better predict the incidence trend of chickenpox in Urumqi. It is necessary to optimize the prediction model according to the actual situation and provide scientific guidance for the prevention and control of chickenpox.


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