1.Research progress on association and mechanisms of copper dyshomeostasis with development of chronic diseases
Haibo ZHANG ; Jinsong FAN ; Xuezhen LIU ; Pinpin LONG
Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine 2026;43(4):516-526
Copper is an essential trace element in the human body, extensively involved in key physiological and biochemical processes such as antioxidant defense, energy metabolism, neural signaling, and immune regulation. In recent years, increasing research has focused on the potential role of copper dyshomeostasis in the development of chronic diseases. Studies indicate that abnormal copper levels, particularly elevated free copper, may increase the risk of cardiovascular disease, neurodegenerative disorders, diabetes, and cancer by inducing oxidative stress, impairing mitochondrial function, and disrupting immune regulation. Concurrently, copper homeostasis abnormalities have been demonstrated to be closely associated with increased all-cause mortality and accelerated aging. This systematic review comprehensively examined physiological functions, metabolic pathways, and environmental exposure characteristics of copper. It emphasized the epidemiological and mechanistic links between copper metabolism disorders and multiple chronic diseases, while exploring the potential applications of copper ion transporters and chelating agents in disease intervention. This work provides scientific evidence for the prevention, control, and precision treatment of copper-related chronic diseases.
2.The Role of Lysosomal Dysfunction in Hepatocellular Carcinoma: From Pathogenesis to Targeted Therapies
Yue-Yan WU ; Xin CHEN ; Ce-Fan ZHOU ; Jing-Feng TANG ; Rui ZHANG
Progress in Biochemistry and Biophysics 2026;53(3):609-622
Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a lethal cancer with high morbidity rates worldwide. It is a major threat to public health in China, due to the combination of known and new risk factors, such as endemic hepatitis B virus (HBV), dietary aflatoxin exposure, and the occurrence of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). Although many methods for surveillance and multimodal therapies, such as surgery, local ablation, transarterial therapy, and new systemic agents, have been available, the survival rates of HCC remains poor. They have very limited durable responses, long post-treatment recurrence rates, and high resistance to treatment. This reflects an imperfect picture of the biological cause of the disease and a need for new mechanistic or targeted techniques. A significant characteristic of HCC, in common with other aggressive cancers, is the presence of reprogrammed, hyperactive cell metabolism. Tumor cells hijack metabolic pathways to promote their uncontrolled growth, stress survival, invasion and metastasis. While classical mechanisms such as the Warburg effect, lipid metabolism and glutamine utilization have been understood, the lysosome, which was once viewed as a static “waste disposal unit” to remove old organelles and proteins, is instead a dynamic signaling and metabolic core. The lysosomes incorporate nutrients, energy and stress signals by master regulators such as mTORC1 (activated on its surface) that balance anabolic growth and catabolic recycling to the cellular demands. In HCC, lysosomes are not passive, but are highly active and dysregulated. HCC cells upregulate lysosomes, which scavenge intracellular components via enhanced autophagy and engulf extracellular proteins via macropinocytosis, crucial for survival in the nutrient-poor, hypoxic tumor microenvironment. In addition to metabolism, lysosomes exhibit pro-invasive functions by secreting hydrolases to remodel the extracellular matrix, promote angiogenesis, and suppress stromal immune cells to foster a pro-tumor microenvironment. In a clinical context, lysosomes play an important role in therapeutic resistance: they sequester and inactivate chemotherapeutics via lysosomal sequestration, and enhanced autophagic flux protects the cell from therapy-induced damage, contributing to relapse, as lysosomal dysfunction is a key cause of treatment failure. This makes lysosomes promising yet challenging therapeutic targets in HCC. Recent preclinical and early clinical studies investigate multiple strategies to exploit the susceptibility of lysosomes: lysosome-specific agents, alkalinizing the lysosome lumen or inducing membrane permeabilization and lysosome-dependent cell death; pharmacological inhibition of key lysosomal enzymes or autophagy to impair nutrient recycling and stress adaptation; smart nanotherapeutic agents or antibody-drug conjugates, specifically activated in the acidic lysosomal environment or utilizing lysosomal pathways for efficient intracellular drug release; and combination strategies of lysosome-targeting agents with tyrosine kinase inhibitors or immunotherapy to overcome resistance and achieve synergistic antitumor effects. In summary, our review systematically presents the role of lysosomes in HCC, from metabolic reprogramming and microenvironmental adaptation to therapeutic resistance. By synthesizing the latest mechanistic insights and preclinical advances, this review highlights the indispensable role of lysosomes in the complex HCC biological network, emphasizing that an in-depth understanding of this dynamic organelle holds great promise for developing innovative, targeted therapies, offering new hope for improving the poor prognosis of global HCC patients.
3.Effect of Oral Sodium Butyrate on Skeletal Muscle Atrophy via The Gut-muscle Axis in Antibiotic-pretreated CT26 Tumor-bearing Mice and Its Mechanism
Shu-Ling ZHANG ; Jun-Wei WANG ; Shi-Liang HU ; Tu-Tu WANG ; Shun-Chang LI ; Jia FAN ; Jun-Zhi SUN
Progress in Biochemistry and Biophysics 2026;53(3):724-739
ObjectiveTo explore the effect of oral sodium butyrate on skeletal muscle atrophy in CT26 tumor mice through the gut microbiota-skeletal muscle axis and its potential mechanism. MethodsSixty SPF BALB/c male mice aged 8 weeks were randomly divided into a normal control group (NC, n=18) and a ABX-depleted group (ABX, n=42). The ABX mice were pretreated with a quadruple antibiotic cocktail via oral gavage (0.2 ml per administration, once daily, 6 d per week, for 2 weeks), whereas NC received an equal volume of sterile water. The quadruple antibiotic cocktail consisted of metronidazole (1 g/L), vancomycin (0.5 g/L), ampicillin (1 g/L), and gentamicin (1 g/L). Following successful pretreatment, six mice from each group were randomly selected for gut microbiota sequencing analysis and designated as the Abx group and the NC0 group, respectively. Theremaining mice in ABX were subcutaneously inoculated in the dorsum with 0.2 ml of CT26 cell suspension (at a cell density of 1×107/ml). Then these mice were randomly allocated into three subgroups: a control tumor bearing model group (0_NaB, n=12), a tumor-bearing model group receiving low-dose oral sodium butyrate (L_NaB, n=12), a tumor-bearing model group receiving high-dose oral sodium butyrate (H_NaB, n=12). And mice in NC were inoculated at the same site with 0.2 ml of normal saline. The administration dose for L_NaB was 0.3 g/(kg·d), that for H_NaB was 0.5 g/(kg·d), while NC and 0_NaB were given the same volume of normal saline (0.2ml per time, once daily, 6 d per week, for 4 weeks). The general condition of mice was monitored, and forelimb grip strength gastrocnemius muscle mass and its muscle fiber cross-sectional area were measured for each group. The structural changes in gut microbiota were assessed by 16S rRNA sequencing of cecal contents. Pathological alterations in the intestinal wall were examined via HE staining. Serum and gastrocnemius muscle levels of TNF‑α, IL-6, IL-1β, and LPS were quantified using ELISA. The protein expression of ZO-1 and occludin in the small intestine, as well as proteins associated with the TLR4/MyD88/NF-κB signaling pathway in the gastrocnemius muscle, were detected by Western blot analysis. Results(1) The alpha-diversity in Abx was significantly lower than that in NC0 (P<0.01), a significant decrease of the mass and muscle fiber cross-sectional area of the gastrocnemius (P<0.01), with the majority of gut microbiota being effectively depleted. (2) Compared with NC, the subcutaneous tumors of mice in 0_NaB were prominent, a significant increase of the mass and muscle fiber cross-sectional area of the gastrocnemius, accompanied by a significant decrease in body weight at the end of the 3th and 4th week (P<0.05), and a significant weakening of the forelimb grasping strength at the 5th and 6th week (P<0.01). Compared with 0_NaB, the tumor mass of mice in L_NaB and H_NaB showed a significant decreasing trend, and the grip strength of the forelimbs significantly increased at the 5th and 6th week (P<0.05, P<0.01). (3) Compared with 0_NaB, the Shannon and Observed species indices in α diversity of L_NaB and H_NaB were significantly increased (P<0.05). At the genus level, compared with 0_NaB, L_NaB exhibited a significant decrease in the relative abundance of Parasutterella (P< 0.01), while H_NaB showed significant reductions in the relative abundances of both Escherichia-Shigella and Parasutterella (P < 0.01). (4) Compared with 0_NaB, the small intestinal tissue structure in L_NaB and H_NaB was more intact, the infiltration of inflammatory cells was significantly reduced, and the capillaries were slightly dilated. The expression levels of ZO-1 and occludin proteins in L_NaB were significantly increased (P<0.01). (5) The LPS concentration in the gastrocnemius muscle and the protein expression levels of TLR4, MyD88, p-IκBα, and p-NF‑κB p65 in L_NaB and H_NaB were significantly lower than those in 0_NaB (P<0.05). The serum TNF‑α concentration in H_NaB and TNF-α concentration in the gastrocnemius muscle of the L_NaB and H_NaB were significantly lower than those in 0_NaB (P<0.05, P<0.01, P<0.01). ConclusionOral administration of NaB can improve gut microbiota α diversity, adjusting its composition, improving intestinal mucosal barrier function, reducing the LPS-induced pro-inflammatory response, and delaying skeletal muscle atrophy. The underlying mechanism may involve down regulation of TLR4/MyD88/NF-κB signaling in skeletal muscle.
4.Interpretation of expert consensus on diagnosis and treatment of esophagogastric variceal bleeding in cirrhotic portal hypertension (2025 edition)
Zhongchen FAN ; Kaixuan ZHANG ; Yang ZHANG ; Xuefeng CAO ; Xingyuan ZHANG
Journal of Clinical Hepatology 2026;42(3):568-572
Cirrhotic portal hypertension is a clinical syndrome caused by persistently elevated portal venous pressure due to liver cirrhosis and can lead to a series of complications, among which esophagogastric variceal bleeding has become one of the most severe complications due to sudden onset and a high mortality rate. Since the release of Expert consensus on diagnosis and treatment of esophagogastric variceal bleeding in cirrhotic portal hypertension (2019 edition), significant advances have been achieved in this field in China and globally. In order to formulate an expert consensus aligned with the situation of China, Chinese Society of Surgery, Chinese Medical Association organized and compiled Expert Consensus on diagnosis and treatment of esophagogastric variceal bleeding in cirrhotic portal hypertension (2025 edition). This article elaborates on the key updates in the new edition and explores the major differences between the old and new editions, in order to enhance the understanding of the new edition among clinicians and provide a reference for clinicians in clinical work.
5.Efficacy and safety of surgery-assisted transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt in treatment of portal hypertension comorbid with complex portal vein thrombosis
Zhenhua FAN ; Chengbin DONG ; Qimei LI ; Yu ZHANG ; Yifan WU ; Dongfang LIU ; Guangzhong XU ; Dezhong WANG ; Jianfei CHEN ; Zhendong YUE ; Lei WANG
Journal of Clinical Hepatology 2026;42(3):586-592
ObjectiveTo investigate the feasibility, safety, and efficacy of surgery-assisted transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (SA-TIPS) in the treatment of portal hypertension comorbid with complex portal vein thrombosis, including cavernous transformation of the portal vein (CTPV). MethodsAn analysis was performed for the data of 36 patients with portal hypertension and complex portal vein thrombosis who underwent SA-TIPS in Beijing Shijitan Hospital, Capital Medical University, from November 2023 to January 2025, including general status, technical data of the surgical process (surgical success rate, puncture times, time of operation, the number of stents used, and the length of shunt), perioperative complications, and surgical recovery. The change in portal pressure gradient (PPG) after shunt was compared, and the rate of reaching the standard for PPG reduction was calculated, as well as stent patency rate within 1 week after surgery. The paired samples t-test was used for comparison of continuous data between two groups. ResultsAmong the 36 patients, 34 (94.4%) underwent SA-TIPS successfully. The incidence rate of perioperative complications was 16.7% (6/36), including 3 cases of thoraco-abdominal hemorrhage, 2 cases of intraoperative arrhythmia, and 1 case of incision infection. There was a significant reduction in PPG after SA-TIPS (t=19.85, P<0.01), and the patients achieving a ≥50% reduction in PPG accounted for 76.5% (26/34). Imaging reexamination within 1 week showed a shunt patency rate of 100%. ConclusionSA-TIPS has a high technical success rate, a favorable safety profile, and good efficacy in the treatment of portal hypertension comorbid with complex portal vein thrombosis (including CTPV), and therefore, it holds promise for clinical application.
6.Single-center analysis of unplanned reoperation case after liver transplantation
Zhi CHEN ; Qingqing DAI ; Fan HUANG ; Guobin WANG ; Xiaojun YU ; Ruolin WU ; Liujin HOU ; Zhenghui YE ; Xinghua ZHANG ; Wei WANG ; Xiaoping GENG ; Hongchuan ZHAO
Organ Transplantation 2026;17(3):452-459
Objective To analyze the main causes and risk factors of unplanned reoperation after liver transplantation. Methods The clinical data of 242 liver transplant recipients in the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University from January 2015 to December 2024 were retrospectively analyzed. According to whether unplanned reoperation was performed during the same hospitalization after surgery, the recipients were divided into the reoperation group (n=36) and the non-reoperation group (n=206). The preoperative, intraoperative and postoperative data of the two groups, as well as donor and graft-related data, were compared to analyze the risk factors of unplanned reoperation after liver transplantation and the survival status of the two groups. Results Among the 242 liver transplant recipients, 36 underwent unplanned reoperations, with a total of 54 procedures including various laparotomies, endoscopic and interventional surgeries, among which there were 20 laparotomies, 18 endoscopic surgeries and 16 interventional surgeries. The most common cause of unplanned reoperation was biliary complications (20 times), followed by vascular complications (17 times). Compared with the non-reoperation group, the reoperation group had longer graft cold ischemia time, higher postoperative fatality rate of recipients, longer length of stay in the intensive care unit and postoperative hospital stay, and higher total hospitalization costs (all P<0.05). The incidence of unplanned reoperation was higher in recipients who underwent split liver transplantation (P<0.05). Multivariate analysis showed that intraoperative blood loss ≥1 000 mL, positive culture of graft perfusate and split liver transplantation were independent risk factors for unplanned reoperation (all P<0.05). The postoperative 7-day, 1-month, 3-month and 6-month survival rates of recipients in the reoperation group and the non-reoperation group were 100% vs. 98.1%, 88.9% vs. 94.2%, 69.4% vs. 90.8% and 66.7% vs. 90.8%, respectively, and the postoperative survival rate of recipients in the reoperation group was lower than that in the non-reoperation group (P<0.05). Conclusions The main causes of unplanned reoperation after liver transplantation are biliary complications, vascular complications, abdominal incision infection and intra-abdominal hemorrhage. Intraoperative massive blood loss, positive culture of graft perfusate and split liver transplantation are the risk factors associated with unplanned reoperation after liver transplantation.
7.Consistency and risk factor analysis of 2 growth chart in the diagnosis of extrauterine growth restriction in preterm infants with a gestational age at birth of less than 32 weeks
Fan ZHANG ; Xiaohua ZHANG ; Shushu LI ; Shuping HAN
Chinese Journal of Pediatrics 2026;64(1):61-67
Objective:To investigate the diagnostic consistency of extrauterine growth restriction (EUGR) assessed by the Fenton 2013 preterm growth charts (Fenton 2013) and the growth charts by International Fetal and Newborn Growth Consortium for the 21st Century (IG-21).Methods:This multicenter retrospective cohort study included 5 591 preterm infants with a gestational age (GA) at birth of less than 32 weeks admitted to 19 member hospitals of the Neonatal Perinatal Collaborative Network of Suxinyun from January 1 st, 2019, to December 31 st, 2024. Clinical data including baseline characteristics, complications, feeding practices and anthropometrics were processed and analyzed. EUGR was assessed using both the Fenton 2013 and the IG-21. A decrease in weight Z-score at discharge compared to admission by more than 1 was defined as longitudinal EUGR, and discharge weight below the P10 for the corresponding corrected GA was defined as cross-sectional EUGR. Diagnostic consistency was assessed using the Kappa coefficient between the 2 standards, and diagnostic performance of the 2 standards was compared using the McNemar test. Risk factors for EUGR under different definitions were analyzed using univariate analysis and multivariate Logistic regression analysis. Results:A total of 5 591 preterm infants were included, with a GA at birth of (29.7±1.6) weeks and a birth weight of (1 360±315) g and at discharge with a corrected GA of (36.3±2.0) weeks and weight of (2 246±370) g. Detection rates of cross-sectional and longitudinal EUGR diagnosed by Fenton 2013 were both higher than those by IG-21 (37.0% (2 214/5 991) vs. 23.7% (1 324/5 591), 61.1% (3 662/5 991) vs. 30.7% (1 714/5 591), χ2=326.77 and 1 358.05, both P<0.001). Using Fenton 2013 as a reference, IG-21 demonstrated superior diagnostic value and consistency in identifying cross-sectional EUGR compared with longitudinal EUGR (sensitivity of 100.0% (3 377/3 377) vs. 99.6% (1 922/1 929), specificity of 59.8% (1 324/2 214) vs. 46.6% (1 707/3 662), positive predictive value of 79.1% (3 377/4 267) vs. 49.6% (1 922/3 877), negative predictive value of 100.0% (1 324/1 324) vs. 99.6% (1 707/1 714), accuracy of 84.1% (4 701/5 591) vs. 64.9% (3 629/5 591), and Kappa 0.64 vs. 0.37, all P<0.001). In multivariate Logistic regression models, risk factors common to EUGR across both standards included smaller GA at birth, lower birth weight, boy, early-onset sepsis, late-onset sepsis and the elder age at full enteral feeding (all P<0.05). Hemodynamically significant patent ductus arteriosus remained an independent risk factor for longitudinal EUGR regardless of whether by the Fenton 2013 or IG-21 standard (adjust odds ratio ( aOR) =1.25 and 1.27, 95% CI 1.09-1.42 and 1.11-1.45). In addition, under the IG-21 standard, severe bronchopulmonary dysplasia was an independent risk factor for cross-sectional EUGR ( aOR=1.54, 95% CI 1.00-2.38), while severe necrotizing enterocolitis was an independent risk factor for longitudinal EUGR ( aOR=2.18, 95% CI 1.01-4.73). Conclusions:IG-21 showed lower detection rates of both cross-sectional and longitudinal EUGR than Fenton 2013, suggesting greater clinical applicability of IG-21 by reducing overdiagnosis while maintaining sensitivity for predicting complications. Across both standards, cross-sectional EUGR facilitates early identification of growth restriction, whereas longitudinal EUGR better tracks dynamic growth patterns and complications of preterm infants.
8.Quercetin Ameliorates Gouty Arthritis in Rats via ROS/NLRP3/IL-1β Signaling Pathway
Baowei FENG ; Yan WANG ; Chang LI ; Yujing ZHANG ; Dingxing FAN ; Xin LI
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(2):145-153
ObjectiveTo investigate the effect of quercetin on acute gouty arthritis (GA) in rats by inhibiting the reactive oxygen species (ROS)/NOD-like receptor protein 3 (NLRP3)/interleukin-1β (IL-1β) signaling pathway. MethodsSixty SPF-grade male SD rats were randomized into normal, model, colchicine (0.3 mg·kg-1), and low-, medium-, and high-dose (25, 50, 100 mg·kg-1, respectively) quercetin groups (n=10). The rats in the dosing groups were administrated with the corresponding drugs (10 mL·kg-1) by gavage once a day for one week. An equal volume of normal saline was given by gavage to rats in normal and model groups. One hour after drug administration on day 5, an acute GA model was established in other groups except the control group via intra-articular injection of monosodium urate (MSU) suspension into the right posterior ankle joint cavity. The joint swelling and gait were scored at the time points of 6, 12, 24, 48 h after modeling. Histopathological alterations in the ankle joint tissue from each group were assessed by hematoxylin-eosin (HE) staining. Malondialdehyde (MDA), xanthine oxidase (XOD), and total superoxide dismutase (T-SOD) assay kits were used to assess the levels of MDA, XOD, and T-SOD in the serum. The levels of tumor interleukin-6 (IL-6), necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), and IL-1β in the rat serum, as well as ROS in the ankle joint tissue, were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Western blot was performed to determine the protein levels of NLRP3, thioredoxin-interacting protein (TXNIP), apoptosis-associated speck-like protein containing a CARD domain (ASC), precursor cysteinyl aspartate-specific proteinase-1 (pro-Caspase-1), cleaved Caspase-1 (Caspase-1 p20), and IL-1β in the ankle joint tissue. Real-time PCR was employed to assess the mRNA levels of TXNIP, NLRP3, ASC, IL-1β, and TNF-α in the ankle joint tissue. ResultsCompared with the normal group, the model group exhibited decreased spontaneous activity, mental fatigue, increased ankle joint swelling and gait scores (P<0.01), aggravated synovial tissue edema and inflammatory cell infiltration (P<0.01), elevated levels of XOD, MDA, TNF-α, IL-1β, and IL-6 in the serum and ROS in the joint tissue (P<0.01), a declined level of T-SOD (P<0.01), up-regulated protein levels of NLRP3, TXNIP, ASC, pro-Caspase-1, Caspase-1 p20, and IL-1β in the ankle joint tissue (P<0.01), and up-regulated mRNA levels of NLRP3, TXNIP, ASC, IL-1β, and TNF-α in the ankle joint tissue (P<0.01). Compared with the model group, the medium- and high-dose quercetin groups showed improved general conditions, decreased gait scores (P<0.05, P<0.01), reduced joint swelling (P<0.01), alleviated synovial tissue edema and inflammatory cell infiltration (P<0.05, P<0.01), lowered levels of XOD, MDA, TNF-α, IL-1β, and IL-6 in the serum and ROS in the joint tissue (P<0.01), increased levels of T-SOD (P<0.01), down-regulated protein levels of TXNIP, NLRP3, ASC, pro-Caspase-1, Caspase-1 p20, and IL-1β in the ankle joint tissue (P<0.05, P<0.01), and down-regulated mRNA levels of TXNIP, NLRP3, ASC, IL-1β, and TNF-α in the ankle joint tissue (P<0.01). Low-dose quercetin also ameliorated some of the above parameters (P<0.05, P<0.01). ConclusionQuercetin exerts anti-GA effects by blocking the ROS/NLRP3/IL-1β signaling pathway, downregulating NLRP3 inflammasome activation, and inhibiting the production of pro-inflammatory cytokines including TNF-α, IL-1β, and IL-6.
9.Analysis of the application status of prescription pre-review systems in Yunnan province
Fan XU ; Wenjie YIN ; Kejia LI ; Zhengfu LI ; Jie CHEN ; Meixian WU ; Ruixiang CHEN ; Songmei LI ; Guowen ZHANG ; Te LI
China Pharmacy 2026;37(1):6-10
OBJECTIVE To investigate the application status of prescription pre-review systems in healthcare institutions of Yunnan province, evaluate their system functions and management capabilities, and provide a practical basis for promoting rational drug use. METHODS A questionnaire survey was conducted among public healthcare institutions at or above the secondary level in Yunnan province to investigate the deployment status of the systems. A capability maturity assessment framework was constructed, encompassing 6 dimensions and 39 indicators, including real-time prescription review, prescription correlation review, rule setting, evidence-based information support, prescription authority management, and system operation management. This framework was then used to evaluate the institutions that had implemented the pre-review systems. RESULTS A total of 100 valid questionnaires were collected, with 37 institutions having adopted prescription pre-review systems, mainly tertiary hospitals. The system predominantly adopted a modular architecture and was embedded into the hospital information system through application programming interfaces and middleware, providing certain capabilities for real-time prescription risk identification. Evaluation results indicated that basic functions such as reviewing indications, contraindications, and drug compatibility performed well, while deficiencies remained in functions related to parenteral nutrition prescription, review of drug dosage for specific diseases, individual patient characteristic recognition, and rule setting. Moreover, the construction of review centers and establishment of management systems were also not well-developed. CONCLUSIONS The overall application rate of prescription pre-review systems in Yunnan province remains low. System functions and management mechanisms require further improvement. It is recommended to enhance information infrastructure in lower-level institutions and explore regionally unified review models to promote standardized and intelligent development of prescription review practices.
10.Analysis and prediction of incidence and mortality trends of colorectal cancer in Jinhua City from 2016 to 2027
ZHOU Fan ; WANG Xiaohon ; CHEN Mengqian ; ZHANG Xiaolan ; XU Zelin
Journal of Preventive Medicine 2026;38(1):26-30
Objective:
To analyze the trends in incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer in Jinhua City, Zhejiang Province from 2016 to 2024, and to predict the incidence and mortality from 2025 to 2027, so as to provide the evidence for improving regional colorectal cancer prevention and control strategies.
Methods:
Data on incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer in Jinhua City from 2016 to 2024 were collected through the Zhejiang Chronic Disease Surveillance Information Management System. The crude incidence and crude mortality were calculated, and standardized using the data from the Sixth National Population Census in 2010. Trends in incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer from 2016 to 2024 were analyzed using the average annual percent change (AAPC). A grey Markov model was constructed to predict the incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer from 2025 to 2027.
Results:
From 2016 to 2024, the crude incidence and standardized incidence of colorectal cancer in Jinhua City were 46.90/100 000 and 30.69/100 000, respectively, showing upward trends (AAPC=4.594% and 2.051%, both P<0.05). The crude mortality and standardized mortality were 17.47/100 000 and 10.36/100 000, respectively, and the trends were not statistically significant (both P>0.05). The standardized incidence and standardized mortality of colorectal cancer in males were higher than those in females (35.38/100 000 vs. 25.68/100 000, 11.96/100 000 vs. 8.57/100 000, both P<0.05). The crude incidence and crude mortality of colorectal cancer in the ≥80 years age group were the highest, at 220.04/100 000 and 186.86/100 000, respectively. From 2016 to 2024, the standardized incidence of colorectal cancer in males and females showed upward trends (AAPC=5.069% and 3.965%, both P<0.05), while the trends in standardized mortality were not statistically significant (all P>0.05). The crude incidence in the 70-<80 years age group showed an upward trend (AAPC=1.320%, P<0.05), and the crude mortality in the 40-<50 years age group showed a downward trend (AAPC=-3.756%, P<0.05). Trends in other age groups were not statistically significant (all P>0.05). The prediction results of the grey Markov model showed that the predicted values of crude incidence and crude mortality of colorectal cancer in the whole population would increase from 58.20/100 000 and 20.04/100 000 in 2025 to 61.70/100 000 and 21.26/100 000 in 2027.
Conclusions
From 2016 to 2024, the incidence of colorectal cancer in Jinhua City showed upward trends, while the mortality trend was stable. Males and the elderly aged ≥80 years are high-risk populations for colorectal cancer incidence and mortality. It is predicted that both crude incidence and crude mortality will increase from 2025 to 2027.


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