1.Risk model for predicting severe dengue and dengue with warning signs by early indications in border areas in Yunnan province:based on LASSO-logistic regression
FU Hanwen ; SHEN Jiayuan ; WU Chao
China Tropical Medicine 2025;25(3):309-
Objective A predictive model should be established during the early stages of dengue progression to evaluate the likelihood of severe dengue and dengue with warning signs, thereby preventing delayed clinical management and reducing dengue-related mortality. Methods Clinical and laboratory examination data of 831 patients admitted to Ruili People's Hospital of Yunnan Province during 2019-2023 were retrospectively collected. The dataset was divided into a training set and a validation set in a 7∶3 ratio. Statistical description and univariate analysis were performed on the training set, with LASSO regression employed to screen variables, followed by logistic regression to develop a risk prediction model for severe dengue. Model performance was validated using ROC curves on both the training set and validation set. Results A total of 831 dengue patients were included in the study, with a mean age of (44.20±15.02) years. Among them, 52.59% were male and 5.42% were Myanmar nationality. In total, 122 cases (14.68%) exhibited severe dengue or dengue with warning signs, predominantly female (58.20%). LASSO regression was used in the training set to screen 11 variables related to the risk of severe dengue and dengue with warning signs: Age, dizziness, vomiting, prothrombin time, partial activated thromboplastin time, hematocrit, platelet, monocyte percentage, absolute value of monocytes, hemoglobin, C-reactive protein (λmin= 0.011 59); Logistic regression identified statistically significant variables for the risk model of severe dengue and dengue with warning signs as follows: age [OR=1.034 (95%CI: 1.016-1.053)], red blood cells deposited [OR=1.258 (95%CI: 1.143-1.519)], platelet [OR=0.991 (95%CI: 0.985-0.997)], hemoglobin (OR=0.919 (95%CI: 0.873-0.950)], C-reactive protein [OR=1.019 (95%CI:1.004-1.034)]. The model achieved an AUC of 0.894 (95%CI: 0.796-0.867) in the training set and 0.862 (95%CI: 0.709-0.827) in the validation set. At a cut-off threshold of 0.197, sensitivity and specificity were 0.850 and 0.743, respectively. Conclusion This study established a LASSO-logistic regression model, which can predict the risk of severe dengue and dengue with warning signs. The model enhances the capability of hospitals to prevent and manage severe dengue and provides valuable guidance for clinical decision-making.
2.Treatment of polyethylene sleeve wear in rotating hinge knee joint with femoral component revision surgery
Ye TAO ; Jun FU ; Hanwen HU ; Qingyuan ZHENG ; Jiying CHEN ; Ming NI
Chinese Journal of Orthopaedics 2024;44(4):210-216
Objective:To investigate the clinical efficacy of femoral component revision surgery in addressing polyethylene sleeve wear in rotating hinge knee joints.Methods:A retrospective analysis was conducted on 21 patients who underwent treatment for polyethylene sleeve wear in rotating hinge knee joints at the Department of Orthopaedics, the Fourth Medical Center, PLA General Hospital, spanning from August 2008 to April 2023. There were 8 males and 13 females with a median age of 63(38, 76) years. Among them, 11 cases involved the left side, and 10 cases involved the right side. The average body mass index (BMI) was 25.0(22.5, 31.0) kg/m 2, and all cases underwent unilateral knee joint revision. The time interval from receiving the hinge knee joint prosthesis to revision was 10.5(6.0, 17.0) years, with 18 cases undergoing primary revision and 3 cases undergoing revision for the second time. Revision surgery of the femoral component sleeve was performed in all patients due to polyethylene sleeve wear. Visual analogue scale (VAS), range of motion (ROM) of the knee joint, changes in hip-knee-ankle angle (HKA), and Knee Society score (KSS) were collected and recorded to assess the surgical outcomes. Results:All patients were followed up for a median duration of 12.5(11.7, 13.4) months. Preoperatively, the VAS score was 5(3, 7) points, which significantly decreased to 0(0, 1) points at the last follow-up ( Z=5.721, P<0.001). At the last follow-up, the KSS scores decreased from 41.19±13.65 points preoperatively to 79.81±7.80 points, indicating a statistically significant difference ( t=12.560, P<0.001). HKA increased from 174.65°±5.20° preoperatively to 178.71°±2.79°, with a statistically significant difference ( t=5.533, P<0.001). Knee joint ROM increased from 69.05°±34.37° preoperatively to 110.00°±10.12°, also demonstrating a significant improvement ( t=5.960, P<0.001). Notably, patients exhibited knee joint stability with no passive flexion or extension laxity. Conclusion:Femoral component sleeve revision surgery effectively addresses polyethylene sleeve wear in rotating hinge knee joint prostheses, thereby mitigating the substantial loss of bone and soft tissue associated with overall revision procedures. The early postoperative clinical outcomes are promising and indicative of the efficacy of this surgical intervention.
3.Effects of T-2 toxin on chondrocyte proliferation and cell cycle
Pan YAN ; Xiaoyan FU ; Hongge WANG ; Yuting JIANG ; Hanwen SHAO ; Ye BU ; Shengzhong RONG ; Ning ZOU ; Yanhui GAO ; Dianjun SUN
Chinese Journal of Endemiology 2018;37(1):35-39
Objective To study the effect of T-2 toxin on proliferation and cell cycle of rat chondrocytes,in order to provide a new idea in molecular mechanism of T-2 toxin-induced chondrocyte damage.Methods Primary chondrocytes of neonatal Wistar rats were isolated and stained by toluidine blue staining and type Ⅱ collagen immunofluorescence staining.The effects of different concentrations of T-2 toxin [0 (control),1,5,10,20,50,100 μg/L)] on proliferation of chondrocytes for 24 h were detected by cell counting kit-8 (CCK-8) method,and control,1 (low dose),5 (medium dose),and 10 μg/L (high dose) T-2 toxin were selected for subsequent experiment;cell cycle changes were detected by flow cytometry;Real-time PCR and Western blotting were used to detect the effects of T-2 toxin on mRNA and protein expressions of proliferating cell nuclear antigen (PCNA) and Cyclin D1 in chondrocytes.Results With increase of T-2 toxin concentration (control,1,5,10,20,50,100 μg/L),the cell survival rates [(100.00 ± 0.00)%,(93.12 ± 1.66)%,(77.12 ± 1.11)%,(59.44 ± 4.09)%,(46.64 ± 3.86)%,(38.15 ± 3.37)%,(33.79 ± 0.99)%] were decreased,and the differences were statistically significant (F =139.21,P <0.05).The percentages of quiescent phase/pre-DNA synthesis phase (G0/G1 phase) ceils in 1,5,10 μg/L T-2 toxin groups [(22.03 ± 0.42)%,(30.54 ± 2.61)%,(36.01 ± 1.51)%] were significantly higher than that in control group [(13.79 ± 1.65)%,P < 0.05];the percentages of DNA synthesis phase (S phase) cells [(60.27 ± 3.53)%,(53.88 ±4.38)%,(49.55 ± 2.49)%] were significantly lower than that in control group [(76.72 ± 4.24)%,P < 0.05].The differences of mRNA levels of PCNA and Cyclin D1 between groups were statistically significant (F =46.80,17.97,P < 0.05),and 5,10 μg/L T-2 toxin groups (0.77 ± 0.13,0.79 ± 0.08,0.60 ± 0.07,0.56 ± 0.05) were lower than the control group (0.99 ± 0.02,1.01 ± 0.01,P < 0.05).The expressions of PCNA protein in 5,10 μg/L T-2 toxin groups (0.69 ± 0.03,0.49 ± 0.03) were lower than that in control group (0.92 ± 0.05,P < 0.05);the expressions of Cyclin D1 protein in 1,5,10 μg/L T-2 toxin groups (0.80 ± 0.06,0.60 ± 0.07,0.33 ± 0.13) were lower than that in control group (0.95 ± 0.07,P < 0.05).Conclusion T-2 toxin can inhibit the proliferation of chondrocytes,which may be worked through influencing the expression of cell cycle protein,causing cell cycle arrest,thereby inhibiting DNA synthesis.

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