Objective: To quantitatively estimate the incidence of COVID-19 in different backgrounds, including vaccination coverage, non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs) measures, home quarantine willingness and international arrivals, and the demands of healthcare resource in Shanghai in the context of optimized epidemic prevention and control strategies. Methods: Based on the natural history of 2019-nCoV, local vaccination coverage and NPI performance, an age-structured Susceptible-Exposed-Infections-Removed (SEIR) epidemic dynamic model was established for the estimation of the incidence of COVID-19 and demand of hospital beds in Shanghai by using the data on December 1, 2022 as the basis. Results: Based on current vaccination coverage, it is estimated that 180 184 COVID-19 cases would need treatment in hospitals in Shanghai within 100 days. When the booster vaccination coverage reaches an ideal level, the number of the cases needing hospitalization would decrease by 73.20%. School closure or school closure plus workplace closure could reduce the peak demand of regular beds by 24.04% or 37.73%, respectively, compared with the situation without NPI. Increased willingness of home quarantine could reduce the number of daily new cases and delay incidence peak of COVID-19. The number of international arrivals has little impact on the development of the epidemic. Conclusions: According to the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 and the actual situation of vaccination in Shanghai, the incidence of COVID-19 and health resource demand might be reduced by increasing vaccination coverage and early implementation of NPI.
Humans ; COVID-19/prevention & control* ; Incidence ; China/epidemiology* ; Epidemics/prevention & control* ; SARS-CoV-2

Objective: To analyze the differences between adults and children in the epidemic characteristics and clinical manifestations of chickenpox and provide a reference for the prevention strategy adjustment of chickenpox. Methods: The incidence data of chickenpox surveillance in Shandong Province from January 2019 to December 2021 were collected. Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the distribution of cases, and the chi-square test was used to compare the differences in epidemiological characteristics and clinical manifestations of varicella cases between adults and children. Results: A total of 66 182 cases of chickenpox were reported from 2019 to 2021, including 24 085 cases of adults chickenpox, the male to female sex ratio was 1∶1 (12 032∶12 053), basically the same for men and women, and 42 097 cases of children chickenpox, with a gender ratio of 1.4∶1, the male to female ratio was 1.4∶1 (24 699∶17 398). Fever in chickenpox cases was mainly low and moderate, but the proportion of moderate fever with temperature between 38.1 and 39.0 ℃ in children cases (35.0%,14 744/42 097) was significantly higher than that in adults (32.0%,7 696/24 085). The number of herpes in chickenpox cases was mainly less than 50, but the proportion of severe cases with 100-200 herpes in children was higher than that in adults. The incidence rate of complications was 1.4% (333/24 085) in adults chickenpox, the incidence rate of complications was 1.7% (731/42 097) in children chickenpox. The incidence of encephalitis and pneumonia in children was higher than in adults, and the difference was statistically significant (P<0.05). The proportion of chickenpox cases was mainly outpatient, but the hospitalization rate of children cases was 14.4% (6 049/42 097), higher than that of adults, which was 10.7% (2 585/24 085). Conclusions: There were differences between adult chickenpox and child chickenpox in terms of epidemic and clinical manifestations; the symptoms of child chickenpox were more serious than adult chickenpox. However, the adult chickenpox population is generally susceptible and lacks immune strategy protection, which calls for more attention.
Child ; Humans ; Adult ; Male ; Female ; Infant ; Chickenpox/prevention & control* ; Hospitalization ; Incidence ; Pneumonia/epidemiology* ; Epidemics ; Fever/epidemiology* ; Chickenpox Vaccine

HIV cluster detection and response (CDR) is a critical strategy to end the HIV epidemic by offering information to identify prevention and care services gaps. The risk metrics for HIV clusters can be classified into three groups: growth-based metrics, characteristic-based metrics, and phylogeny-based metrics. When identifying HIV risk clusters, the public health response can reach people in the affected networks, including people with undiagnosed HIV, people with diagnosed HIV who might not be accessing HIV care or other services, and people without HIV who would benefit from prevention services. To provide references for HIV precise prevention in China, we summarized the risk metrics and the intervention measures for CDR.
Humans ; HIV Infections/prevention & control* ; Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/epidemiology* ; Public Health ; Epidemics/prevention & control* ; China/epidemiology*

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the global epidemic status of the Ebola virus disease (EVD) and assess the importation risk into China. METHODS: Data from World Health Organization reports were used. We described the global epidemic status of EVD from 1976-2021, and assessed and ranked the importation risk of EVD from the disease-outbreaking countries into China using the risk matrix and Borda count methods, respectively. RESULTS: From 1976-2021, EVD mainly occurred in western and central Africa, with the highest cumulative number of cases (14,124 cases) in Sierra Leone, and the highest cumulative fatality rate (85%) in the Congo. Outbreaks of EVD have occurred in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Guinea since 2018. The importation risk into China varies across countries with outbreaks of disease. The Democratic Republic of the Congo had an extremely high risk (23 Borda points), followed by Guinea and Liberia. Countries with a moderate importation risk were Nigeria, Uganda, Congo, Sierra Leone, Mali, and Gabon, while countries with a low importation risk included Sudan, Senegal, and Co^te d'Ivoire. CONCLUSION China is under the risk of EVD importation with the globalization and severe epidemic status of EVD. Key attention need to be paid to the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Guinea, and Liberia. Therefore, it is necessary to prevent and prepare in advance for importation risk in China.
Humans ; Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/prevention & control* ; Epidemics ; Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control* ; Guinea/epidemiology* ; Sierra Leone/epidemiology* ; China/epidemiology*

With the outbreak of infectious diseases, more and more attention has been paid to surveillance and early warning work. Timely and accurate monitoring data is the basis of infectious diseases prevention and control. Effective early warning methods for infectious diseases can improve the timeliness and sensitivity of early warning work. This paper briefly introduces the intelligent early warning model of infectious diseases, summarizes the emerging surveillance and early warning methods of infectious diseases, and seeks the possibility of diversified surveillance and early warning in different epidemic stages and different outbreak scenarios of infectious diseases. This paper puts forward the idea of constructing a diversified method system of infectious diseases surveillance and early warning based on multi-stages and multi-scenarios and discusses the future development trend of infectious diseases surveillance and early warning, in order to provide reference for improving the construction level of infectious diseases surveillance and early warning system in China.
Humans ; Population Surveillance/methods* ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology* ; Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control* ; Epidemics ; China/epidemiology*

With the outbreak of infectious diseases, more and more attention has been paid to surveillance and early warning work. Timely and accurate monitoring data is the basis of infectious diseases prevention and control. Effective early warning methods for infectious diseases can improve the timeliness and sensitivity of early warning work. This paper briefly introduces the intelligent early warning model of infectious diseases, summarizes the emerging surveillance and early warning methods of infectious diseases, and seeks the possibility of diversified surveillance and early warning in different epidemic stages and different outbreak scenarios of infectious diseases. This paper puts forward the idea of constructing a diversified method system of infectious diseases surveillance and early warning based on multi-stages and multi-scenarios and discusses the future development trend of infectious diseases surveillance and early warning, in order to provide reference for improving the construction level of infectious diseases surveillance and early warning system in China.
Humans ; Population Surveillance/methods* ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology* ; Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control* ; Epidemics ; China/epidemiology*

Epidemic diseases have caused huge harm to the society. Traditional Chinese medicine(TCM) has made great contributions to the prevention and treatment of them. It is of great reference value for fighting diseases and developing drugs to explore the medication law and mechanism of TCM under TCM theory. In this study, the relationship between the TCM theory of cold pestilence and modern epidemic diseases was investigated. Particularly, the the relationship of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19), severe acute respiratory syndrome(SARS), and influenza A(H1 N1) with the cold pestilence was identified and analyzed. The roles of TCM theory of cold pestilence in preventing and treating modern epidemic diseases were discussed. Then, through data mining and textual research, prescriptions for the treatment of cold pestilence were collected from major databases and relevant ancient books, and their medication laws were examined through analysis of high-frequency medicinals and medicinal pairs, association rules analysis, and cluster analysis. For example, the prescriptions with high confidence levels were identified: "Glycyrrhizae Radix et Rhizoma-Bupleuri Radix-Paeoniae Radix Alba" "Glycyrrhizae Radix et Rhizoma-Pinelliae Rhizoma-Bupleuri Radix", and TCM treatment methods with them were analyzed by clustering analysis to yield the medicinal combinations: "Zingiberis Rhizoma-Aconiti Lateralis Radix Praeparata-Ginseng Radix et Rhizoma" "Poria-Atractylodis Macrocephalae Rhizoma" "Cinnamomi Ramulus-Asari Radix et Rhizoma" "Citri Reticulatae Pericarpium-Perillae Folium" "Pinelliae Rhizoma-Magnoliae Officinalis Cortex-Atractylodis Rhizoma" "Paeoniae Radix Alba-Angelicae Sinensis Radix-Glycyrrhizae Radix et Rhizoma-Bupleuri Radix-Scutellariae Radix-Rhizoma Zingiberis Recens" "Ephedrae Herba-Armeniacae Semen Amarum-Gypsum Fibrosum" "Chuanxiong Rhizoma-Notopterygii Rhizoma et Radix-Angelicae Dahuricae Radix-Platycodonis Radix-Saposhnikoviae Radix". Then, according to the medication law for cold pestilence, the antiviral active components of medium-frequency and high-frequency medicinals were retrieved. It was found that these components exerted the antiviral effect by inhibiting virus replication, regulating virus proteins and antiviral signals, and suppressing protease activity. Based on network pharmacology, the mechanisms of the medicinals against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus(SARS-CoV), 2019 novel coronavirus(2019-nCoV), and H1 N1 virus were explored. It was determined that the key targets were tumor necrosis factor(TNF), endothelial growth factor A(VEGFA), serum creatinine(SRC), epidermal growth factor receptor(EGFR), matrix metalloproteinase 9(MMP9), mitogen-activated protein kinase 14(MAPK14), and prostaglandin-endoperoxide synthase 2(PTGS2), which were involved the mitogen-activated protein kinase(MAPK) pathway, advanced glycation end-products(AGE)-receptor for AGE(RAGE) pathway, COVID-19 pathway, and mTOR pathway. This paper elucidated the medication law and mechanism of TCM for the prevention and treatment of epidemic diseases under the guidance of TCM theory of cold pestilence, in order to build a bridge between the theory and modern epidemic diseases and provide reference TCM methods for the prevention and treatment of modern epidemic diseases and ideas for the application of data mining to TCM treatment of modern diseases.
Aconitum ; Antiviral Agents ; COVID-19/epidemiology* ; Calcium Sulfate ; Communicable Disease Control ; Communicable Diseases/virology* ; Creatinine ; Cyclooxygenase 2 ; Drugs, Chinese Herbal/therapeutic use* ; Endothelial Growth Factors ; Epidemics/prevention & control* ; ErbB Receptors ; Humans ; Matrix Metalloproteinase 9 ; Medicine, Chinese Traditional ; Mitogen-Activated Protein Kinase 14 ; Pinellia ; SARS-CoV-2 ; TOR Serine-Threonine Kinases ; Tumor Necrosis Factors ; COVID-19 Drug Treatment

In order to cope with monkeypox in children and adolescents, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released "Clinical Considerations for Monkeypox in Children and Adolescents", which is specially written for pediatric health workers serving children and adolescents under the age of 18 years to standardize the clinical management of children and adolescents with exposure to monkeypox (human monkeypox or animal monkeypox) or with suspected or confirmed monkeypox. This document highlights the characteristics of children and adolescents and gives some valuable suggestions to the special issues in pediatric clinical practice, and it is worth studying by pediatric health workers who are preparing for a possible epidemic of monkeypox.
Animals ; United States ; Adolescent ; Child ; Humans ; Monkeypox/prevention & control* ; Epidemics ; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. ; Health Personnel

The risk of plague epidemics and relapse of various types of plague foci persists in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. For Marmota sibirica plague foci, the animal plague has not been found but antibody has been detected positive. Nowadays, Marmota sibirica has been increasing in population and distribution in China. In bordering countries Mongolia and Russia, the animal plague has been continuously prevalent. For Spermophilus dauricus plague foci, the animal plague has been taken place now and then. Compared to the above foci, the animal plague is most prevalent in Meriones unguiculatus plague foci and frequently spread to humans. Due to higher strain virulence and historical disaster in Marmota sibirica plague foci and Spermophilus dauricus plague foci, plague prevention and control should be strengthened on these foci. In addition to routine surveillance, epidemic dynamics need to be further monitored in these two foci, in order to prevent their relapse and spread to humans.
Animals ; China/epidemiology* ; Epidemics ; Humans ; Plague/prevention & control* ; Prevalence ; Sciuridae ; Yersinia pestis

Despite the fact that our cognition towards infectious disease prevention, the advanced technology and the economic status of the whole society has made a great progress in the last decade, the outbreak of COVID-19 pneumonia has again enabled the public to acquire more about super-challenges of infectious diseases, epidemics and the relevant preventive measurements. In order to identify the epidemic signals in early stage or even before the onset of epidemic, the data research and utilization of a series of factors related to the occurrence and transmission of infectious diseases have played a significant role in research of prevention and control during the whole period of surveillance and early warning. Laboratory-based monitoring for the etiology has always been an important part of infectious disease warning system due to pathogens as the direct cause of such diseases. China has initially established a laboratory-based monitoring and early warning system for bacterial infectious diseases based on the Chinese Pathogen Identification Network with an aim to identify pathogens, outbreaks and sources. This network has played an essential role in early detection, tracking and precise prevention and control of bacterial infectious diseases, such as plague, cholera, and epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis. This issue focuses on the function of laboratory-based monitoring during the period of early warning, prevention, and control of bacterial infectious diseases, and conducted a wide range of researches based on the analysis of the epidemic and outbreak isolates, together with field epidemiological studies and normal monitoring systems. All of these could illustrate the effect of laboratory surveillance in the infectious disease risk assessment and epidemic investigation. At the same time, we have put forward our review and expectation of scenarios about laboratory-based monitoring and early warning technologies to provide innovative thoughts for promoting a leapfrog development of infectious disease monitoring and early warning system in China.
Bacterial Infections/epidemiology* ; COVID-19 ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology* ; Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control* ; Epidemics ; Humans ; Laboratories