1.Decompression mechanism of symmetrically adduction of lumbar decompression induced resorption of herniated nucleus pulpous
Chunlin ZHANG ; Zhaohua HOU ; Xu YAN ; Yan JIANG ; Su FU ; Yongming NING ; Dongzhe LI ; Chao DONG ; Xiaokang LIU ; Yongkui WANG ; Zhengming CAO ; Tengyue YANG
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2025;29(9):1810-1819
BACKGROUND:Traditional surgery for lumbar disc herniation involves extensive excision of tissue surrounding the nerve for decompression and removal of protruding lumbar intervertebral discs,which poses various risks and complications such as nerve damage causing paralysis,lumbar instability,herniation recurrence,intervertebral space infection,and adjacent vertebral diseases. OBJECTIVE:To propose the symmetrically adduction of lumbar decompression induced resorption of herniated nucleus pulpous technique for lumbar spine symmetrically decompression,showing the induced resorption of herniated nucleus pulpous phenomenon and early clinical efficacy,and then analyze its decompression mechanism. METHODS:214 patients with lumbar disc herniation at Department of Orthopedics,First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University from March 2021 to May 2023 were enrolled in this study.Among them,81 patients received conservative treatment as the control group,and 133 patients received symmetrically adduction of lumbar decompression induced resorption of herniated nucleus pulpous treatment as the trial group.Before surgery,immediately after surgery(7-14 days),and early after surgery(over 1 year),MRI images were used to measure the volume changes of lumbar disc herniation.CT images were used to measure the posterior displacement distance of the lumbar spinous process ligament complex,as well as the width and height of the lateral recess.Japanese Orthopaedic Association scores were used to evaluate the patient's neurological function recovery. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)Control group:81 patients with lumbar disc herniation were treated conservatively,with a total of 171 herniated lumbar discs.The average follow-up time was(22.7±23.1)months.The first and second MRI measurements of 171 herniated lumbar discs showed herniated lumbar disc volumes of(551.6±257.9)mm3 and(792.2±330.4)mm3,respectively,with an average volume increase rate of(53.2±44.4)%,showing statistically significant differences(P<0.001).Out of 171 herniated lumbar discs,4 experienced natural shrinkage,with an absorption ratio of 2.3%(4/171)and an absorption rate of(24.5±9.9)%.(2)Trial group:133 patients with lumbar disc herniation had a total of 285 herniated lumbar discs.(1)Immediately after surgery:All patients were followed up immediately after surgery.229 out of 285 herniated lumbar discs experienced retraction,with an absorption ratio of 80.3%(229/285)and an average absorption rate of(21.5±20.9)%,with significant and complete absorption accounting for 6.5%.There were a total of 70 herniated lumbar discs in the upper lumbar spine,with an absorption ratio of 85.7%(60/70),an average absorption rate of(23.1±19.5)%,and a maximum absorption rate of 86.6%.There were 215 herniated lumbar discs in the lower lumbar spine,with an absorption ratio of 78.6%(169/215),an average absorption rate of(21.0±21.3)%,and a maximum absorption rate of 83.2%.Significant and complete absorption of the upper and lower lumbar vertebrae accounted for 5.7%and 6.5%,respectively,with no statistically significant difference(P>0.05).The average distance of posterior displacement of the spinous process ligament complex immediately after surgery was(5.2±2.8)mm.There were no significant differences in the width and height of the left and right lateral recess before and immediately after surgery(P>0.05).The Japanese Orthopaedic Association score immediately after surgery increased from(10.1±3.4)before surgery to(17.0±4.8),and the immediate effective rate after surgery reached 95.6%.(2)Early postoperative period:Among them,46 patients completed the early postoperative follow-up.There were 101 herniated lumbar discs,with an absorption ratio of 94%(95/101)and an average absorption rate of(36.9±23.7)%.Significant and complete absorption accounted for 30.6%,with a maximum absorption rate of 100%.Out of 101 herniated lumbar discs,3 remained unchanged in volume,with a volume invariance rate of 2.97%(3/101).Out of 101 herniated lumbar discs,3 had an increased volume of herniated lumbar discs,with an increase ratio of 2.97%(3/101)and an increase rate of(18.5±18.4)%.The Japanese Orthopaedic Association score increased from preoperative(9.3±5.1)to(23.5±4.0),with an excellent and good rate of 93.4%.(3)The early postoperative lumbar disc herniation absorption ratios of the control group and trial group were 2.3%and 85.9%,respectively,with statistically significant differences(P<0.001).(4)Complications:There were two cases of incision exudation and delayed healing in the trial group.After conservative treatment such as dressing change,no nerve injury or death occurred in the incision healing,and no cases underwent a second surgery.(5)It is concluded that symmetrically adduction of lumbar decompression induced resorption of herniated nucleus pulpous is a new method for treating lumbar disc herniation that can avoid extensive excision of the"ring"nerve and achieve satisfactory early clinical efficacy.It does not damage the lumbar facet joints or alter the basic anatomical structure of the lateral recess,fully preserves the herniated lumbar discs,and can induce significant or even complete induced resorption of herniated nucleus pulpous.Symmetrically adduction of lumbar decompression induced resorption of herniated nucleus pulpous provides a new basis and method for the clinical treatment of lumbar disc herniation.
2.Optimization of water extraction technology of Kaixin granules
Zuomin WU ; Shuxian BAI ; Meng NING ; Yunzhi WANG ; Huifen MA ; Jingyuan DONG ; Zhongjie YANG ; Zhishen XIE ; Zhenqiang ZHANG ; Xiaotao YU
China Pharmacy 2025;36(22):2790-2795
OBJECTIVE To optimize the water extraction technology for Kaixin granules. METHODS UPLC-MS/MS method was established for the simultaneous determination of ginsenoside Rg1, ginsenoside Re, ginsenoside Rb1, tenuifolin, polygalaxanthone Ⅲ and 3, 6′-disinapoyl-sucrose. An orthogonal test was designed with extraction times, extraction duration, and the volume of added water as factors. Using the contents of the aforementioned six indicator components and the extract yield as evaluation indexes, analytic hierarchy process-entropy weight method was employed to determine the combined weights of each indicator. Subsequently, process optimization and validation were conducted by integrating grey relational analysis (GRA) and back propagation (BP) neural network. RESULTS The water extraction technology optimized by the orthogonal test and GRA was 10- fold water for the first decoction and 8-fold water for the subsequent two, extracting 3 times,extracting for 1 h each time; the average comprehensive score of the validation experiment was 91.10 (RSD=0.31%, n=3). The water extraction technology optimized by BP neural network was extracting 3 times with 10-fold water added each time, extracting for 1.5 h each time; the average comprehensive score of the validation experiment was 95.89 (RSD=0.73%, n=3). Considering practical production requirements, the optimal water extraction technology was extraction performed three times, with 10-fold water for the first decoction and 8-fold water for the subsequent two extractions, with an extraction time of 1 h each. CONCLUSIONS The optimized water extraction technology for Kaixin granules is stable and feasible.
3.Mechanism of circ_0038467 regulating oxygen-glucose deprivation-induced nerve cell damage by targeting miR-940
Xuan-Dong KONG ; Li-Qin ZHOU ; Ning WANG ; Tian-Ya WU ; Ming ZHAO
Chinese Pharmacological Bulletin 2024;40(5):887-893
Aim To explore the effect of circ_0038467 on nerve cell damage induced by hypoxia-glucose dep-rivation(OGD)and its possible mechanism.Methods Rat cortical nerve cells were isolated and cultured,and then induced by OGD to establish a cell injury model.si-NC,si-circ_0038467,miR-NC,and miR-940 mimics were transfected into rat cortical nerve cells and treated with OGD for 6 h.si-circ_0038467 and an-ti-miR-NC or anti-miR-940 were co-transfected into rat cortical neurons,followed by OGD treatment for 6 h.qRT-PCR was used to detect the expression levels of circ_0038467 and miR-940.CCK-8 method and flow cytometry were used to examine cell proliferation and apoptosis.LDH method was used to detect cell dam-age.The dual luciferase reporter experiment was used to detect the targeting relationship between circ_0038467 and miR-940.Western blot was employed to detect cleaved caspase-3 and cleaved caspase-9 protein levels.Results Circ_0038467 expression increased and miR-940 expression decreased in OGD-induced nerve cells(P<0.01).After transfection with si-circ_0038467 or miR-940 mimics,cell survival rate in-creased(P<0.01),while LDH release rate,apopto-sis rate,and the protein levels of cleaved caspase-3 and cleaved caspase-9 decreased(P<0.01).Circ_0038467 could target miR-940.Compared with the OGD+si-circ_0038467+anti-miR-NC group,cell survival rate in OGD+si-circ_0038467+anti-miR-940 group was down-regulated(P<0.01),while LDH re-lease rate,apoptosis rate and cleaved caspase-3,cleaved caspase-9 levels were up-regulated(P<0.01).Conclusion Interference of circ_003 8467 and could protect nerve cells from OGD-induced oxidative stress and apoptosis by up-regulating miR-940.
4.Study on the influencing factors related with the size of vestibular schwannomas
Wen-Zhuang LI ; Ze-Ning WANG ; Guo-Hua ZHU ; Yan-Dong LI ; Dangmurenjiafu GENG
Journal of Regional Anatomy and Operative Surgery 2024;33(5):416-419
Objective To preliminarily investigate the related factors influencing the size of vestibular schwannomas.Methods The clinical data of patients with vestibular schwannomas who underwent retrosigmoid approach surgery at the department of neurosurgery of First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University from June 2013 to June 2023 were retrospectively analyzed.The tumor size of the patients was evaluated based on their preoperative imaging data.Univariate and multiple linear regression analyses were performed to explore the factors affecting the size of vestibular schwannomas.Results The tumor size of patients was ranging from 0.63 to 6.60 cm,with a median size of 2.97(2.20,3.80)cm.Univariate analysis showed that gender(P=0.010),ethnicity(P=0.001),age(P=0.049)and cystic solid tumor(P<0.001)were related to the size of vestibular schwannomas.Large-sized vestibular schwannomas were most commonly cystic-solid,and small and medium-sized vestibular schwannomas were most commonly solid.BMI,surgical side and place of residence were not correlated with the size of vestibular schwannomas(P>0.05).Multiple linear regression results showed that male(B=0.390,P=0.001)and Uyghur(B=0.611,P<0.001)patients were more likely to develop large tumors;with every 1-year increase in age,the maximum diameter of the tumor was reduced by an average of 0.011 cm(B=-0.011,P=0.027).Conclusion The gender,age,and ethnicity of patients are correlated with the size of vestibular schwannomas,and male,Uyghur,or younger patients were at higher risk of developing larger vestibular schwannomas.
5.MiR-22-3p targets gasdermin D to inhibit homocysteine-induced pyroptosis of vascular smooth muscle cells
Yingyi ZHONG ; Ning DING ; Yichen WANG ; Chao LIU ; Zhifeng DONG ; Shengchao MA ; Jiantuan XIONG ; Yinju HAO ; Zhigang BAI ; Yideng JIANG
Chinese Journal of Comparative Medicine 2024;34(9):12-18
Objective To investigate the effect of miR-22-3p on pyroptosis of vascular smooth muscle cells(VSMCs)induced by homocysteine(Hcy).Methods Human VSMCs were cultured in vitro and divided into a Control group(0 μmol/L Hey)and a Hey group(100 μmol/L Hey).After intervention,expression levels of pro Caspase-1,gasdermin D(GSDMD),N-GSDMD,and NLR family pyrin domain containing 3(NLRP3)were detected by Western blot.MiR-22-3p expression was determined by quantitative real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction.Interleukin(IL)-1 β and IL-18 levels in the supernatant were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay.Cells were also transfected with control miR-22-3p(miR-22-3p-NC),miR-22-3p-mimic,and miR-22-3p-inhibitor,to observe the effects on VSMC pyroptosis induced by Hcy.Results Expression levels of pro Caspase-1,GSDMD,N-GSDMD,and NLRP3 in VSMCs were increased(P<0.05),IL-1 β and IL-18 levels were increased(P<0.01),and the relative expression level of miR-22-3p was reduced(P<0.01)in the Hcy group compared with the Control group.Transfection with miR-22-3p-mimic significantly decreased the expression levels of pro Caspase-1,GSDMD,N-GSDMD,and NLRP3 in VSMCs(P<0.01),and significantly decreased levels of IL-1β and IL-18(P<0.01),while transfection with miR-22-3p-inhibitor significantly increased the expression levels of pro Caspase-1,GSDMD,N-GSDMD,and NLRP3 in VSMCs(P<0.01)and significantly increased the levels of IL-1β and IL-18(P<0.05).Conclusions MiR-22-3p may delay Hcy-induced VSMC pyroptosis.
6.Effect of Tumor Suppressor Gene Kmt2c Heterozygous Deletion on Hematopoietic System in Mice
Xue WANG ; Dong-Ning HUA ; Jin ZHOU ; Yan ZHANG ; Cai-Hong XING
Journal of Experimental Hematology 2024;32(5):1571-1577
Objective:To explore the effect of heterozygous deletion of histone methyltransferase Kmt2c gene on the hematological system of mice.Methods:CRISPR/Cas9 technology was used to construct mice model of Kmt2c heterozygous deletion(Kmt2c+/-)and the changes of whole blood cell count in mice were continuously monitored by blood routine test.The clonal expansion ability of bone marrow cells was explored by colony formation assay in vitro and the proportion of primitive hematopoietic cells,including long-term hematopoietic stem cell(LT-HSC),short-term hematopoietic stem cell(ST-HSC),and multipotent progenitor cell in mutant mice was analyzed by flow cytometry.Results:Kmt2c+/-mice model was successfully constructed,and the mRNA expression level of Kmt2c was 28%of that of C57BL/6J mice.The colony formation ability of bone marrow cells of Kmt2c+/-mice in vitro increased with the passage times,and the colony number in the fourth generation was significantly higher than that of control group(P<0.05).The proportions of LT-HSC and ST-HSC in the primitive hematopoietic cell population of Kmt2c+/-mice was 19.6%±3.3%and 28.9%±4.9%,respectively,which showed an increasing trend compared with 16.9%±2.6%and 18.9%±2.5%in control group,but the difference was not statistically significant(P>0.05).The white blood cell count of Kmt2c+/-mice gradually increased after 12 weeks of monitoring and reached(9.8±1.0)×109/L at the 14th week,which was significantly higher than(7.3±1.4)× 109/L of control group(P<0.05).Conclusion:The bone marrow cells of Kmt2c+/-mice have potential of clonal expansion.
7.Immuno Phenotypic Characteristics of Bone Marrow Monocytes and Its Clinical Significance in Patients with Multiple Myeloma
Ning-Fang WANG ; Chong-Shan ZHAO ; Yue-Ming YOU ; Fang LIU ; Fang-Fang CAI ; Dong-Dong ZHANG
Journal of Experimental Hematology 2024;32(6):1781-1789
Objective:To explore the characteristics of the immunophenotypic expression of bone marrow monocytes (M ) and its clinical significance in patients with multiple myeloma (MM ). Methods:The monocyte immunophenotypes expression of 67 MM and 30 anemic patients (control group)were detected by flow cytometry.The immunophenotypes that exhibited statistical differences from the control group were screened out.Further univariate and multivariate regression was used analyze the risk factors affecting the prognosis. The effect of monocyte immunophenotype on the prognosis of MM was analyzed.The correlation of CD38+monocytes with clinical features was explored.Results:The percentages of CD138+monocytes (CD138+M%),CD27+monocytes (CD27+M%),and CD56+monocytes (CD56+M%)in the MM group were significantly higher than that in the control group(P<0.05),but the percentages of CD38+monocytes (CD38+M%)and HLA-DR+monocytes (HLA-DR+M%)were significantly lower than that in the control group (P<0.01 ).The median progression-free survival (PFS)was shorter in the low CD38+monocyte proportion (LCD38+M%)group compared to the high CD38+monocyte proportion (HCD38+M%) group.Additionally,the median overall survival (OS)was significantly shorter in the low CD138+monocyte proportion (LCD138+M%),low CD27+monocyte proportion (LCD27+M%),low CD38+monocyte proportion (LCD38+M%),and low HLA-DR+monocyte proportion (LHLA-DR+M%)groups.Cox regression analysis showed that the low CD38+M% was an independent risk factor for OS.The LCD38+M%group had significantly higher proportions of involved/uninvolved free light chain ratios ≥100 and 1q21+compared to the HCD38+M% group (P<0.05 ). Moreover,the proportion of CD38-myeloma cells was significantly higher in the LCD38+M% group than that in the HCD38+M% group (P<0.05).Conclusion:The expression of CD38+monocytes in bone marrow of MM patients is closely related to the prognosis and clinical characteristics.CD38+monocytes maybe used to predict prognosis and guide treatment decisions.
8.Imaging Features of Selective Adrenal Arteriography in Patients With Primary Aldosteronism
Yixi WANG ; Wenzhe SUN ; Bingnan JIN ; Yu WANG ; Hongliang XIONG ; Jiao YANG ; Ning LI ; Yifei DONG
Chinese Circulation Journal 2024;39(8):760-766
Objectives:To clarify the radiological anatomy features of adrenal arteries derived from digital subtraction angiography(DSA)in patients with primary aldosteronism(PA). Methods:The DSA images of 119 patients diagnosed with PA and underwent percutaneous selective adrenal artery embolization from January 2018 to December 2019 at the 2nd Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University were retrospectively analyzed,and the number,origin,distribution,angle and diameter of adrenal arteries were analyzed. Results:The mean age of 119 PA patients was(49±11)years,with 71(59.7%)males,and at least one adrenal artery was successfully identified in all patients,a total of 192 adrenal arteries were analyzed.There were 20(10.4%)upper,40(20.8%)middle and 132(68.8%)lower adrenal arteries.Adrenal arteries originating from renal arteries accounted for 42.7%(82/192),adrenal arteries originating from the abdominal aorta accounted for 37.5%(72/192),and those from the inferior diaphragmatic arteries accounted for 19.8%(38/192).72.8%(83/114)of left adrenal arteries and 60.3%(47/78)of right adrenal arteries distributed at the level of the first lumbar vertebrae.28.1%(54/192)adrenal arteries distributed at the level of the second lumbar vertebrae,and 4.2%(8/192)adrenal arteries at the level of the 12th thoracic vertebrae.The angle range of left adrenal arteries intersecting with the origin arteries was 35.90° to 160.07°(renal artery),27.08° to 171.99°(accessory renal artery),0° to 158.70°(abdominal aorta);for right adrenal arteries,it was 18.43° to 172.53°(renal artery),69.26° to 114.62°(accessory renal artery),12.32° to 232.85°(abdominal aorta),respectively.The average diameters of left and right adrenal arteries were(0.98±0.45)mm and(1.27±0.42)mm,respectively. Conclusions:This study provides more detailed radiological anatomy data of adrenal arteries in PA patients.As a supplement to human anatomical features,the described data can provide practical guidance for adrenal artery interventional treatment.
9.Analysis of surgical situations and prognosis of pancreaticoduodenectomy in Jiangsu province (a report of 2 886 cases)
Zipeng LU ; Xin GAO ; Hao CHENG ; Ning WANG ; Kai ZHANG ; Jie YIN ; Lingdi YIN ; Youting LIN ; Xinrui ZHU ; Dongzhi WANG ; Hongqin MA ; Tongtai LIU ; Yongzi XU ; Daojun ZHU ; Yabin YU ; Yang YANG ; Fei LIU ; Chao PAN ; Jincao TANG ; Minjie HU ; Zhiyuan HUA ; Fuming XUAN ; Leizhou XIA ; Dong QIAN ; Yong WANG ; Susu WANG ; Wentao GAO ; Yudong QIU ; Dongming ZHU ; Yi MIAO ; Kuirong JIANG
Chinese Journal of Digestive Surgery 2024;23(5):685-693
Objective:To investigate the surgical situations and perioperative outcome of pancreaticoduodenectomy in Jiangsu Province and the influencing factors for postoperative 90-day mortality.Methods:The retrospective case-control study was conducted. The clinicopathological data of 2 886 patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy in 21 large tertiary hospitals of Jiangsu Quality Control Center for Pancreatic Diseases, including The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, from March 2021 to December 2022 were collected. There were 1 732 males and 1 154 females, aged 65(57,71)years. Under the framework of the Jiangsu Provincial Pancreatic Disease Quality Control Project, the Jiangsu Quality Control Center for Pancreatic Diseases adopted a multi-center registration research method to establish a provincial electronic database for pancrea-ticoduodenectomy. Observation indicators: (1) clinical characteristics; (2) intraoperative and post-operative conditions; (3) influencing factors for 90-day mortality after pancreaticoduodenectomy. Measurement data with skewed distribution were represented as M( Q1, Q3) or M(IQR), and comparison between groups was conducted using the Mann-Whitney U test. Count data were expressed as absolute numbers or constituent ratio, and comparison between groups was conducted using the chi-square test, continuity correction chi-square test and Fisher exact probability. Maximal Youden index method was used to determine the cutoff value of continuous variables. Univariate analysis was performed using the corresponding statistical methods based on data types. Multivariate analysis was performed using the Logistic multiple regression model. Results:(1) Clinical characteristics. Of the 2 886 patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy, there were 1 175 and 1 711 cases in 2021 and 2022, respectively. Of the 21 hospitals, 8 hospitals had an average annual surgical volume of <36 cases for pancreaticoduodenectomy, 10 hospitals had an average annual surgical volume of 36-119 cases, and 3 hospitals had an average annual surgical volume of ≥120 cases. There were 2 584 cases performed pancreaticoduodenectomy in thirteen hospitals with an average annual surgical volume of ≥36 cases, accounting for 89.536%(2 584/2 886)of the total cases. There were 1 357 cases performed pancrea-ticoduodenectomy in three hospitals with an average annual surgical volume of ≥120 cases, accounting for 47.020%(1 357/2 886) of the total cases. (2) Intraoperative and postoperative conditions. Of the 2 886 patients, the surgical approach was open surgery in 2 397 cases, minimally invasive surgery in 488 cases, and it is unknown in 1 case. The pylorus was preserved in 871 cases, not preserved in 1 952 cases, and it is unknown in 63 cases. Combined organ resection was performed in 305 cases (including vascular resection in 209 cases), not combined organ resection in 2 579 cases, and it is unknown in 2 cases. The operation time of 2 885 patients was 290(115)minutes, the volume of intra-operative blood loss of 2 882 patients was 240(250)mL, and the intraoperative blood transfusion rate of 2 880 patients was 27.153%(782/2 880). Of the 2 886 patients, the invasive treatment rate was 11.342%(327/2 883), the unplanned Intensive Care Unit (ICU) treatment rate was 3.087%(89/2 883), the reoperation rate was 1.590%(45/2 830), the duration of postoperative hospital stay was 17(11)days, the hospitalization mortality rate was 0.798%(23/2 882), and the failure rate of rescue data in 2 083 cases with severe complications was 6.529%(19/291). There were 2 477 patients receiving postoperative 90-day follow-up, with the 90-day mortality of 2.705%(67/2477). The total incidence rate of complication in 2 886 patients was 58.997%(1 423/2 412). The incidence rate of severe complication was 13.970%(291/2 083). The comprehensive complication index was 8.7(22.6) in 2 078 patients. (3) Influencing factors for 90-day mortality after pancreaticoduodenectomy. Results of multivariate analysis showed that age ≥ 70 years, postoperative invasive treatment, and unplanned ICU treatment were independent risk factors for 90-day mortality after pancreaticoduodenectomy ( odds ratio=2.403, 2.609, 16.141, 95% confidence interval as 1.281-4.510, 1.298-5.244, 7.119-36.596, P<0.05). Average annual surgical volume ≥36 cases in the hospital was an independent protective factor for 90-day mortality after pancreaticoduodenectomy ( odds ratio=0.368, 95% confidence interval as 0.168-0.808, P<0.05). Conclusions:Pancreaticoduodenectomy in Jiangsu Province is highly con-centrated in some hospitals, with a high incidence of postoperative complications, and the risk of postoperative 90-day mortality is significant higher than that of hospitallization mortality. Age ≥ 70 years, postoperative invasive treatment, and unplanned ICU treatment are independent risk factors for 90-day motality after pancreaticoduodenectomy, and average annual surgical volume ≥36 cases in the hospital is an independent protective factor.
10.Application research of R language-based autoregressive integrated moving average model for predicting short-term consumption of medical consumables
Ze-Hua LIU ; Hong-Tao LU ; Wei LI ; Fei WEI ; Si-Si WANG ; Xiao-Ning FU ; Xin-Ming DONG
Chinese Medical Equipment Journal 2024;45(10):84-87
Objective To explore the effect of a R language-based autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model for predicting the consumption of medical consumables.Methods The monthly consumption data of a certain type of pre-filled flush syringe from July 2018 to June 2023 was selected as the sample data,which underwent smoothness test and difference operation with R language.An ARIMA model was established and the optimal model was determined according to the Akaike and Bayesian information criteria.The corresponding data of the third quarter of 2023 was used as the validation set to predict the consumption,and the prediction result was compared with the actual values to evaluate the prediction effect of the ARIMA model.Results The ARIMA model with the best fitting was ARIMA(0,1,1)(1,0,0)12,all the predicted data were within 95%confidence interval,and its mean absolute percentage error MAPE was 9.92%.P-value proved to be higher than 0.05 when the residual series were tested using the Ljung-Box statistics,which meant the prediction result was satisfactory.Conclusion The R language-based ARIMA model behaves well in predicting the consumption of medical consumables,and provides references for demand planning,budgeting,purchasing and management of medical consumables.[Chinese Medical Equipment Journal,2024,45(10):84-87]

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