1.Construction and validation of a prognostic risk assessment model for lung adenocarcinoma based on miR-34 family target genes
Lingyu GU ; Ang GELEMA ; Dan YANG ; Huifeng WANG ; Lixin WANG ; Hui DONG
Acta Universitatis Medicinalis Anhui 2026;61(1):118-126
ObjectiveTo establish a tumor prognostic risk assessment model related to target genes of the miR-34 family. MethodsTarget genes of the miR-34 family were screened, and the scores of miR-34 target genes were assessed in 16 tumor types. Univariate Cox regression analysis was used to identify the tumor type with the strongest correlation between miR-34 target gene scores and overall survival (OS). Gene Ontology (GO) and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) analyses were performed to elucidate the functional roles and signaling pathways of miR-34 target genes. A prognostic risk model based on the miR-34 target genes was constructed using univariate Cox and LASSO regression analyses. Quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) and dual-luciferase reporter assays were conducted to validate whether the target genes bind to miR-34 and measure their RNA expression levels in the relevant tumors. Additionally, the risk score was integrated with other clinical indicators to develop a nomogram prediction model for patient survival. ResultsA total of 65 target genes of the miR-34 family were screened. The cancer type exhibiting stronger correlation between the target gene scores and OS was lung adenocarcinoma (P = 0.003, HR= 5.150). Furthermore, miR-34 target genes were predominantly enriched in oxidative stress pathways and various tumor-related processes. Three genes, LDHA, GALNT7, and SATB2, were identified as core components of the prognostic analysis model for lung adenocarcinoma. Additionally, the constructed nomogram model demonstrated robust predictive performance. ConclusionThe risk model and prognosis model of lung adenocarcinoma constructed based on the key target genes of miR-34 have good predictive performance.
2.Clinical characteristics and prognosis of immunotherapy for recurrent/metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma: a single-center retrospective analysis
WANG Haoqiang ; LIU Baiyang ; YANG Ning ; LIU Peng ; CHENG Donghai ; PENG Lijun ; WANG Xianci ; HUANG Xueqin ; DONG Enlai ; JIANG Yiming ; ZHOU Juan ; XIE Bo
Chinese Journal of Cancer Biotherapy 2026;33(1):84-90
[摘 要] 目的:探讨复发/转移性鼻咽癌(NPC)接受含PD-1单抗免疫治疗的临床特征和预后影响因素。方法:回顾性分析2019年3月至2024年7月期间南部战区总医院确诊的95例NPC患者的临床资料和外周血生化及免疫学指标。预后分析采用Kaplan-Meier曲线,组间比较使用Log-rank检验,采用Cox比例风险模型进行单因素和多因素分析。结果:95例患者中男性81例,女性14例,中位年龄49.72岁(16~74岁),Ⅳ期91例(95.79%),所有患者均采用免疫治疗,联合或不联合化疗方案治疗,中位无进展生存期(mPFS)为10.5个月,客观缓解率(ORR)70.53%,疾病控制率(DCR)89.47%,接受含铂治疗方案患者PFS相对更长,且差异有统计学意义。紫杉醇 + 顺铂 + 氟尿嘧啶(TPF)对比吉西他滨 + 顺铂(GP)和紫杉醇 + 顺铂(TP)显示出更长的PFS,但差异无统计学意义。不同PD-1单抗治疗组间的PFS未显示出有统计学意义的差异。单因素及多因素Cox回归分析结果显示,肿瘤复发状态、初始血浆EBV感染状态、治疗周期数、基线外周血SII是复发/转移性NPC患者接受PD-1抑制剂治疗疗效预测的独立相关因素(均P < 0.05),并且非复发患者、初始血浆EBV DNA阳性、接受 ≥ 4治疗周期、基线外周血SII < 772.81的患者接受PD-1抑制剂治疗预后相对更好。结论:在接受PD-1抑制剂治疗的复发/转移性NPC患者中,非复发患者、初始血浆EBV DNA阳性、≥ 4治疗周期且外周血SII < 772.81者PFS相对更长,可早期识别免疫治疗效果不佳患者并精准干预。
3.Optimization of drug dispensing and pickup process in traditional Chinese medicine pharmacy based on data-intelligence-driven
Qi WANG ; Panke ZENG ; Haoxin SONG ; Yonggang FENG ; Lili SUN ; Jingting FENG ; Weiqing NIU ; Haiyan DONG ; Feng WANG
China Pharmacy 2026;37(5):660-664
OBJECTIVE To explore the transformation of the dispensing and drug pickup process in traditional Chinese medicine pharmacy (TCM Pharmacy) in our hospital based on data-intelligence-driven, aiming to improve pharmacists’ work efficiency and patients’ drug pickup experience. METHODS Value stream mapping and journey mapping were used to systematically identify non-value-added links in pharmacists’ dispensing process and key pain points in patients’ drug pickup under the traditional process. An intelligent dispensing and drug pickup system for the TCM Pharmacy was developed based on the C# and Android television platforms, and a machine-learning model was adopted to predict patients’ drug pickup waiting time. A comprehensive evaluation was performed from three perspectives: system performance, prediction accuracy, and satisfaction of pharmacists and patients. RESULTS The system successfully streamlined non-value-added links such as “waiting for writing on the board” and “searching for drugs”, and realized multimodal dynamic prompts of dispensing status through auditory (number calling) and visual (television terminal) channels. The constructed model for predicting drug pickup waiting time exhibited good fitting degree and generalization ability (mean absolute error=4.28 min, R 2 =0.882). The comprehensive satisfaction scores of pharmacists and patients in the traditional mode were significantly increased from (70.99±1.74) and (73.58±1.98) to (90.02±1.30) and (88.61±2.08) in the new system, respectively ( P <0.01). CONCLUSIONS The transformation of the intelligent drug dispensing and pickup system for TCM pharmacy based on data-intelligence-driven effectively improves the efficiency of pharmacists’ dispensing work, realizes process transparency and waiting time predictability, and significantly enhances patients’ drug pickup experience.
4.Tracing Development of LIU Wansu's Theory of ''Fire-heat Inducing Stroke''
Xin LAN ; Changxiang LI ; Haojia ZHANG ; Jialin CHENG ; Zijin SUN ; Liyang DONG ; Zilin REN ; Xueqian WANG ; Fafeng CHENG ; Qingguo WANG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(8):32-41
LIU Wansu, as the foremost of the four great masters of the Jin-Yuan period, established the "theory of fire-heat'' and extended the fire-heat pathogenesis framework to the field of stroke, thereby forming the theory of ''fire-heat inducing stroke''. This achieved a paradigmatic shift in stroke etiology from ''exogenous wind inducing stroke'' to ''fire-heat inducing stroke''. This paper systematically reviews the developmental trajectory of LIU Wansu's ''fire-heat inducing stroke'' theory and explores the social background, academic origins, and core connotations of its theoretical construction. The study found that, based on the ''Nineteen Pathomechanisms'' in the Huangdi's Internal Classic (Huang Di Nei Jing) and combined with clinical practice, LIU Wansu proposed that fire-heat is the fundamental cause of stroke, and that the Six Climatic Factors and the Five Zhi-Emotions can all transform into fire. He further constructed a stratified syndrome differentiation and therapeutic system centered on clearing heat and purging fire, emphasizing differentiated treatment of exterior and interior syndromes, Six Meridians syndrome differentiation, and seasonally adjusted medication. This theory not only resolved the diagnostic and therapeutic dilemmas of febrile epidemic diseases during the Jin-Yuan period, but also exerted a profound influence on later physicians such as ZHANG Zihe and ZHU Danxi, thereby promoting the pluralistic development of stroke theory in traditional Chinese medicine (TCM). Modern pharmacological research provides solid scientific evidence, confirming that the ''fire-heat'' pathological state is highly associated with key mechanisms such as excessive inflammatory responses, oxidative stress, and excitatory amino acid toxicity following cerebral ischemia. Heat-clearing and fire-purging prescriptions and agents, such as Huanglian Jiedu Tang and baicalin, can exert multi-target neuroprotective effects by regulating inflammatory signaling, enhancing antioxidant enzyme activity, and balancing neurotransmitters. This not only verifies the scientific basis of the ''fire-heat inducing stroke'' theory from a modern biological perspective but also provides conclusive evidence for the clinical application of heat-clearing and fire-purging therapy. LIU Wansu's ''fire-heat inducing stroke'' theory represents a major milestone in the historical understanding of stroke pathogenesis, and its academically transitional insights continue to hold core guiding value for the pattern identification and treatment of ischemic stroke today.
5.Effects of Huanglian Jiedutang on Neutrophil Infiltration in Brain of MCAO Mice via Regulation of Chemokine Expression in Exosomes
Haojia ZHANG ; Kai WANG ; Zijin SUN ; Chunyu WANG ; Wei SHAO ; Kunjing LIU ; Liyang DONG ; Dan CHEN ; Wenxiu XU ; Chuanzun WANG ; Wen WANG ; Changxiang LI ; Xueqian WANG ; Fafeng CHENG ; Qingguo WANG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(8):42-53
ObjectiveTo investigate whether Huanglian Jiedutang can inhibit neutrophil infiltration in the brains of middle cerebral artery occlusion (MCAO) mice by regulating the expression of neutrophil-related chemokines in exosomes, thereby achieving therapeutic effects. MethodsA total of 130 male specific pathogen-free (SPF) C57BL/6J mice were randomly divided into four groups: Sham-operated group, MCAO model group, Huanglian Jiedutang group (6 g·kg-1), and Ginaton group (21.6 mg·kg-1), with 10 mice in the Ginaton group and 40 mice in each of the remaining three groups. Mice in the Huanglian Jiedutang group and the Ginaton group were administered the corresponding drugs by oral gavage once daily at a volume of 0.15 mL·(10 g)-1 for 7 consecutive days, while the sham-operated and model groups received an equal volume of saline via the same route. After 7 days, MCAO surgery was performed. The distal and proximal ends of the right common carotid artery (CCA) were ligated, a small incision was made between the two ligatures, and a silicone rubber-coated monofilament with a rounded tip was inserted into the lumen to occlude the CCA. The filament was left in place for 1 h to establish a focal cerebral ischemia model. At 24 h after modeling, mice were evaluated. Neurological function was assessed using the Longa score. Cerebral infarct volume was measured by 2,3,5-triphenyltetrazolium chloride (TTC) staining. Cerebral blood flow was observed by laser speckle imaging. Hematoxylin and eosin (HE) staining and Nissl staining were used to observe pathological changes in brain tissues. Exosomes were isolated from mouse plasma and brain tissues by ultracentrifugation and molecular size exclusion and identified by electron microscopy, particle size analysis, and protein blotting. Long-chain RNA libraries of exosomes were constructed and sequenced. Real-time quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (Real-time PCR) was used to detect the mRNA expression of inflammatory factors and neutrophil-related chemokines in exosomes from plasma and brain tissues of each group. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) was used to detect the protein expression of inflammatory factors and neutrophil-related chemokines in exosomes from brain tissues of each group. Immunohistochemistry was used to detect the expression of the neutrophil-specific protein myeloperoxidase (MPO) in the brains of mice in each group. ResultsCompared with the sham-operated group, the model group showed decreased neurological function scores (P<0.01), obvious cerebral infarction (P<0.01), reduced cerebral blood flow (P<0.01), neuronal necrosis in the brain, and decreased numbers of Nissl bodies (P<0.01). The mRNA expression levels of IL-1β, MPO, CXCL1, CXCL2, CXCL3, CXCL10, CCL2, and CCL3 in exosomes from plasma and brain tissues were significantly increased (P<0.05, P<0.01). The protein expression levels of IL-1β, MPO, CXCL2, and CXCL10 in exosomes from brain tissues were increased (P<0.05, P<0.01), and MPO-positive rates and mean optical density values in brain tissues were elevated (P<0.01). Compared with the model group, the Huanglian Jiedutang group and the Ginaton group showed increased neurological function scores (P<0.05), reduced cerebral infarct volume (P<0.01), restored cerebral blood flow (P<0.01), reduced necrotic cells in the brain, and increased numbers of Nissl bodies (P<0.01). In the Huanglian Jiedutang group, the mRNA expression levels of IL-1β, MPO, CXCL1, CXCL2, CXCL3, CXCL10, CCL2, and CCL3 in exosomes from plasma and brain tissues were decreased (P<0.05, P<0.01). The protein expression levels of IL-1β, MPO, CXCL2, and CXCL10 in exosomes from brain tissues were reduced (P<0.05, P<0.01), and MPO-positive rates and mean optical density values in brain tissues were decreased (P<0.01). ConclusionHuanglian Jiedutang can effectively regulate the expression of neutrophil-related chemokines in exosomes from plasma and brain tissues of MCAO mice, thereby reducing neutrophil infiltration in the brain and achieving therapeutic effects.
6.Targeted fluorescent imaging probes for detecting the spatial distribution of VEGF in the retinas of rats with radiation retinopathy
Yunhe DING ; Bin WANG ; Feng LIU ; Zhiyang ZHANG ; Haibei DONG ; Wenwen GUO ; Haitao YIN
International Eye Science 2026;26(4):567-572
AIM: To detect the distribution and expression of vascular endothelial growth factor(VEGF)in radiation retinopathy(RR)through fluorescence targeted imaging.METHODS:Covalent binding of fluorescein FITC with VEGF antibody ranibizumab to prepare targeted fluorescent imaging probe ranibizumab-FITC. SD rats were randomly divided into three groups based on the principle of weight balance: a normal control group(Con group), a low-dose radiation group(10 Gy group), and a high-dose radiation group(30 Gy group). Medical linear accelerators and lead blocks were used to locally irradiate the rat eyeballs for modeling. Western blot and qRT-PCR were used to detect the expression levels of VEGF-A in each group and to screen for appropriate modeling dose. The inverted fluorescence microscope and the confocal microscope were used to observe the distribution of VEGF and imaging probes in the retinas of control and RR model group rats, and to verify the effectiveness of targeted probes.RESULTS:The expression level of VEGF-A in the retina of rats in the high-dose radiation group(30 Gy group)was higher than that in the normal control group(Con group). In early RR, VEGF expression was observed to be associated with microaneurysms and abnormal microvessels in the retina. VEGF accumulation was observed at the site of capillary wall damage. When retinal capillary endothelial damage occurred, targeted probes gathered on the outer surface of the vessel wall.CONCLUSION:The expression level of VEGF in the retina of RR model rats is elevated, and fluorescent targeted molecular imaging probes can detect the spatial distribution of VEGF at the microvascular lesions in the retina of RR rats.
7.Tracing Development of LIU Wansu's Theory of ''Fire-heat Inducing Stroke''
Xin LAN ; Changxiang LI ; Haojia ZHANG ; Jialin CHENG ; Zijin SUN ; Liyang DONG ; Zilin REN ; Xueqian WANG ; Fafeng CHENG ; Qingguo WANG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(8):32-41
LIU Wansu, as the foremost of the four great masters of the Jin-Yuan period, established the "theory of fire-heat'' and extended the fire-heat pathogenesis framework to the field of stroke, thereby forming the theory of ''fire-heat inducing stroke''. This achieved a paradigmatic shift in stroke etiology from ''exogenous wind inducing stroke'' to ''fire-heat inducing stroke''. This paper systematically reviews the developmental trajectory of LIU Wansu's ''fire-heat inducing stroke'' theory and explores the social background, academic origins, and core connotations of its theoretical construction. The study found that, based on the ''Nineteen Pathomechanisms'' in the Huangdi's Internal Classic (Huang Di Nei Jing) and combined with clinical practice, LIU Wansu proposed that fire-heat is the fundamental cause of stroke, and that the Six Climatic Factors and the Five Zhi-Emotions can all transform into fire. He further constructed a stratified syndrome differentiation and therapeutic system centered on clearing heat and purging fire, emphasizing differentiated treatment of exterior and interior syndromes, Six Meridians syndrome differentiation, and seasonally adjusted medication. This theory not only resolved the diagnostic and therapeutic dilemmas of febrile epidemic diseases during the Jin-Yuan period, but also exerted a profound influence on later physicians such as ZHANG Zihe and ZHU Danxi, thereby promoting the pluralistic development of stroke theory in traditional Chinese medicine (TCM). Modern pharmacological research provides solid scientific evidence, confirming that the ''fire-heat'' pathological state is highly associated with key mechanisms such as excessive inflammatory responses, oxidative stress, and excitatory amino acid toxicity following cerebral ischemia. Heat-clearing and fire-purging prescriptions and agents, such as Huanglian Jiedu Tang and baicalin, can exert multi-target neuroprotective effects by regulating inflammatory signaling, enhancing antioxidant enzyme activity, and balancing neurotransmitters. This not only verifies the scientific basis of the ''fire-heat inducing stroke'' theory from a modern biological perspective but also provides conclusive evidence for the clinical application of heat-clearing and fire-purging therapy. LIU Wansu's ''fire-heat inducing stroke'' theory represents a major milestone in the historical understanding of stroke pathogenesis, and its academically transitional insights continue to hold core guiding value for the pattern identification and treatment of ischemic stroke today.
8.Effects of Huanglian Jiedutang on Neutrophil Infiltration in Brain of MCAO Mice via Regulation of Chemokine Expression in Exosomes
Haojia ZHANG ; Kai WANG ; Zijin SUN ; Chunyu WANG ; Wei SHAO ; Kunjing LIU ; Liyang DONG ; Dan CHEN ; Wenxiu XU ; Chuanzun WANG ; Wen WANG ; Changxiang LI ; Xueqian WANG ; Fafeng CHENG ; Qingguo WANG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(8):42-53
ObjectiveTo investigate whether Huanglian Jiedutang can inhibit neutrophil infiltration in the brains of middle cerebral artery occlusion (MCAO) mice by regulating the expression of neutrophil-related chemokines in exosomes, thereby achieving therapeutic effects. MethodsA total of 130 male specific pathogen-free (SPF) C57BL/6J mice were randomly divided into four groups: Sham-operated group, MCAO model group, Huanglian Jiedutang group (6 g·kg-1), and Ginaton group (21.6 mg·kg-1), with 10 mice in the Ginaton group and 40 mice in each of the remaining three groups. Mice in the Huanglian Jiedutang group and the Ginaton group were administered the corresponding drugs by oral gavage once daily at a volume of 0.15 mL·(10 g)-1 for 7 consecutive days, while the sham-operated and model groups received an equal volume of saline via the same route. After 7 days, MCAO surgery was performed. The distal and proximal ends of the right common carotid artery (CCA) were ligated, a small incision was made between the two ligatures, and a silicone rubber-coated monofilament with a rounded tip was inserted into the lumen to occlude the CCA. The filament was left in place for 1 h to establish a focal cerebral ischemia model. At 24 h after modeling, mice were evaluated. Neurological function was assessed using the Longa score. Cerebral infarct volume was measured by 2,3,5-triphenyltetrazolium chloride (TTC) staining. Cerebral blood flow was observed by laser speckle imaging. Hematoxylin and eosin (HE) staining and Nissl staining were used to observe pathological changes in brain tissues. Exosomes were isolated from mouse plasma and brain tissues by ultracentrifugation and molecular size exclusion and identified by electron microscopy, particle size analysis, and protein blotting. Long-chain RNA libraries of exosomes were constructed and sequenced. Real-time quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (Real-time PCR) was used to detect the mRNA expression of inflammatory factors and neutrophil-related chemokines in exosomes from plasma and brain tissues of each group. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) was used to detect the protein expression of inflammatory factors and neutrophil-related chemokines in exosomes from brain tissues of each group. Immunohistochemistry was used to detect the expression of the neutrophil-specific protein myeloperoxidase (MPO) in the brains of mice in each group. ResultsCompared with the sham-operated group, the model group showed decreased neurological function scores (P<0.01), obvious cerebral infarction (P<0.01), reduced cerebral blood flow (P<0.01), neuronal necrosis in the brain, and decreased numbers of Nissl bodies (P<0.01). The mRNA expression levels of IL-1β, MPO, CXCL1, CXCL2, CXCL3, CXCL10, CCL2, and CCL3 in exosomes from plasma and brain tissues were significantly increased (P<0.05, P<0.01). The protein expression levels of IL-1β, MPO, CXCL2, and CXCL10 in exosomes from brain tissues were increased (P<0.05, P<0.01), and MPO-positive rates and mean optical density values in brain tissues were elevated (P<0.01). Compared with the model group, the Huanglian Jiedutang group and the Ginaton group showed increased neurological function scores (P<0.05), reduced cerebral infarct volume (P<0.01), restored cerebral blood flow (P<0.01), reduced necrotic cells in the brain, and increased numbers of Nissl bodies (P<0.01). In the Huanglian Jiedutang group, the mRNA expression levels of IL-1β, MPO, CXCL1, CXCL2, CXCL3, CXCL10, CCL2, and CCL3 in exosomes from plasma and brain tissues were decreased (P<0.05, P<0.01). The protein expression levels of IL-1β, MPO, CXCL2, and CXCL10 in exosomes from brain tissues were reduced (P<0.05, P<0.01), and MPO-positive rates and mean optical density values in brain tissues were decreased (P<0.01). ConclusionHuanglian Jiedutang can effectively regulate the expression of neutrophil-related chemokines in exosomes from plasma and brain tissues of MCAO mice, thereby reducing neutrophil infiltration in the brain and achieving therapeutic effects.
9.Processing History and Modern Research of Bile-processed Coptidis Rhizoma: A Review
Zhaowei DONG ; Jing YANG ; Qinwan HUANG ; Jin WANG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(2):269-278
Bile-processed Coptidis Rhizoma(B-pCR), first documented in Shengji Zonglu, is a unique processed products of Coptidis Rhizoma(CR) characterized by "mutual enhancement processing" and "enhancing the cold property of cold-natured herbs". Pig bile can enhance the bitter and cold properties of CR, yielding potent effects in purging excess fire from the liver and gallbladder. The processing increases the dissolution of alkaloids such as berberine, coptisine, and palmatine, while introducing bile acids from pig bile, including taurine-type and glycine-type cholic acids. This enhances its pharmacological effects, such as antipyretic activity, regulation of glucose and lipid metabolism disorders, and intestinal absorption. Traditional processing techniques and quality standards for B-pCR are outlined in the Shanghai Traditional Chinese Medicine(TCM) Decoction Pieces Processing Standard and the Gansu TCM Processing Standard. However, incomplete specifications for critical process parameters and quality criteria significantly impact its production and clinical application. A review of research over the past two decades on the processing history, process optimization, quality evaluation, material basis, and changes in pharmacological effects and properties of B-pCR reveals that the pretreatment method and dosage of pig bile, and processing temperature are key factors influencing its quality. Furthermore, current quality standards lack specific indicators. Additionally, the enhancement of the cold property and medicinal efficacy direction of B-pCR is not only associated with changes in alkaloid groups but also depend on the synergistic effects of bile acids. This review can provide insights for improving the quality evaluation system of B-pCR.
10.Multicenter machine learning-based construction of a model for predicting potential organ donors and validation with decision curve analysis
Xu WANG ; Wenxiu LI ; Fenghua WANG ; Shuli WU ; Dong JIA ; Xin GE ; Zhihua SHAN ; Tongzuo LI
Organ Transplantation 2026;17(1):106-115
Objective To evaluate the predictive value of different machine learning models constructed in a multicenter environment for potential organ donors and verify their clinical application feasibility. Methods The study included 2 000 inpatients admitted to five domestic tertiary hospitals from January 2020 to December 2023, who met the criteria for potential organ donation assessment. They were randomly divided into a training set and an internal validation set (7∶3). Another 300 similar patients admitted to the First Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University from January 2024 to April 2025 were included as an external validation set. The area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and F1-score of three models were compared, and the consistency of the potential organ donor determination process was tested. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify predictive factors of potential organ donors. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was employed to verify the resource efficiency of each model, and the threshold interval and intervention balance point were assessed. Results Apart from age, there were no significant differences in other basic characteristics among the centers (all P>0.05). The consistency of the potential organ donor determination process among researchers in each center was good [all 95% confidence interval (CI) lower limits >0]. In the internal validation set, the XGBoost model had the best predictive performance (AUC=0.92, 95% CI 0.89-0.94) and the best calibration (P=0.441, Brier score 0.099). In the external validation set, the XGBoost model also had the best predictive performance (AUC=0.91, 95% CI 0.88-0.94), outperforming logistic regression and random forest models. Multivariate logistic regression showed that mechanical ventilation had the greatest impact (odds ratio=2.06, 95% CI 1.54-2.76, P<0.001). DCA indicated that the XGBoost model had the highest net benefit in the threshold interval of 0.2-0.6. The “treat all” strategy only had a slight advantage at extremely low thresholds. The recommended threshold interval, which balances intervention costs and clinical benefits, considers ≥50% positive predictive value (PPV) and ≤50 referrals per 100 high-risk patients. Conclusions The XGBoost model established in a multicenter environment is accurate and well-calibrated in predicting potential organ donors. Combined with DCA, it may effectively guide the timing of clinical interventions and resource allocation, providing new ideas for the assessment and management of organ donation after brain death.

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