OBJECTIVES: To analyze the trends of disease burden of lip and oral cancers in East Asia from 1990 to 2021 and its future projections. METHODS: We used the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database to conduct a comprehensive analysis of disease burden data from China (including Taiwan Province of China), Japan, Republic of Korea, Democratic People's Republic of Korea and Mongolia. The data were stratified by age, gender and major risk factors, and a Bayesian age-period-cohort model was employed to predict the future trends. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2021, the burden of lip and oral cancers in East Asian countries exhibited a steady increase. Taiwan Province of China experienced the most significant increases in incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), while Mongolia saw a decline in both mortality and DALYs. In 2021, Taiwan Province of China reported the highest rates of lip and oral cancer incidence (27.50 per 100 000), prevalence (137.92 per 100 000), mortality (9.59 per 100 000), and DALYs (292.07 person-years per 100 000), particularly among male and elderly populations. Tobacco use and alcohol consumption significantly exacerbated the disease burden in Taiwan Province of China and Japan. Future projections indicate that the incidence and prevalence of lip and oral cancer in China (excluding Taiwan Province of China) will continue to rise, while their mortality rates are expected to decline in most regions, except for Taiwan Province of China and Democratic People's Republic of Korea. CONCLUSIONS By the year 2035, the disease burden of lip and oral cancers in East Asia is expected to continue to increase, especially in Taiwan Province of China. To address this challenge, it is essential to implement effective measures to control major risk factors, promote early screening, and ensure equitable distribution of healthcare resources.
Humans ; Mouth Neoplasms/epidemiology* ; Incidence ; Lip Neoplasms/epidemiology* ; Asia, Eastern/epidemiology* ; Male ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Prevalence ; Female ; Forecasting ; Risk Factors ; Cost of Illness ; Middle Aged ; Global Burden of Disease ; Aged ; Bayes Theorem

OBJECTIVES: To analyze the changes in disease burden and risk factors of atrial fibrillation/atrial flutter (AF/AFL) in China and globally from 1990 to 2021 to provide epidemiological evidence for developing effective preventive measures for AF/AFL in China. METHODS: Based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, we analyzed sex- and age-specific AF/AFL burden metrics across 204 countries or territories. Age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), prevalence, mortality rate (ASMR), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) rate (ASDR) were calculated. Joinpoint regression was employed to compute average annual percentage changes (AAPC) in trends. The risk factors were systematically evaluated and further validated using Mendelian randomization analysis. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2021, China experienced an increase in ASIR of AF/AFL (from 42.63 to 44.93 per 100 000), contrasting with the global decline. While China's ASMR decreased (from 4.93 to 4.33 per 100 000), global ASMR rose slightly (from 4.24 to 4.36 per 100 000). China's ASDR remained stable at 93.29 per 100 000, whereas global ASDR increased marginally (100.81 to 101.40 per 100 000). Significant sex disparities were observed: males showed higher ASIR and ASDR, while females exhibited greater ASMR and ASDR. China had higher incidence and prevalence but lower mortality and DALY rates compared to global averages. In 2021, the key risk factors for AF/AFL included elevated systolic blood pressure, high BMI, smoking, alcohol use, high-sodium diet, and low temperature. Gender-specific patterns emerged: smoking was predominant in males, whereas high BMI disproportionately affected females. CONCLUSIONS AF/AFL incidence and prevalence keep increasing in China, and its large population base and demographic aging pose significant public health challenges. Maintaining healthy lifestyle habits, including smoking cessation, alcohol moderation, and a low-sodium diet can help to lower AF/AFL incidence, and regular screenings is crucial for its early detection and treatment.
Humans ; China/epidemiology* ; Risk Factors ; Atrial Flutter/epidemiology* ; Atrial Fibrillation/epidemiology* ; Mendelian Randomization Analysis ; Male ; Female ; Global Burden of Disease ; Incidence ; Prevalence ; Middle Aged ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Aged

Congenital musculoskeletal and limb deformities (CMLD) seriously affect the physical and mental health of patients, and pose great challenges to healthcare systems worldwide. We explored the specific situation and changes of incidence, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years rates, and mortality of CMLD in under-5 children from 1990 to 2021 in different groups, including different regions, periods, genders and socio-demographic indices (SDI), through corresponding analytical models. Overall, the global disease burden of CMLD in under-5 children has decreased from 1990 to 2021. The disease burden of CMLD in under-5 children varied significantly among different regions and countries, and there was a strong correlation between the corresponding burden of disease and the level of SDI. In addition, cross-country inequality analysis showed that while absolute inequalities in the disease burden of CMLD in under-5 children have improved, relative inequalities have worsened. It is essential to reduce the global health impact of CMLD by implementing targeted interventions to improve health care in underdeveloped areas.
Humans ; Global Burden of Disease/trends* ; Child, Preschool ; Global Health/statistics & numerical data* ; Infant ; Male ; Prevalence ; Limb Deformities, Congenital/mortality* ; Musculoskeletal Abnormalities/mortality* ; Female ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Incidence ; Infant, Newborn ; Cost of Illness ; Socioeconomic Factors

INTRODUCTION

The social determinants of health refer to an individual's social, political, and economic situation and environment, which can have an impact on their health. On the other hand, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) reflect the mortalities and morbidities incurred due to disease and injury.

This study aims to analyze the social determinants of health indicators and their association with communicable, non-communicable, and injury-related DALYs and deaths.

Data from World Health Organization, World Bank, and International Labor Organization were used and considered for the 17 Social Determinants of Health categories. Logistic regression was used to determine the relationship of social determinants of health indicators with communicable, non-communicable, and injury-related DALYs and deaths.

Results show that an increase in the population, monetary poverty, adult illiteracy, and fine particulate matter increase IPNN DALYs. This study also found correlations of socioeconomic factors to NCD deaths and DALYs attributable to the environment. NCD DALYs and deaths are found to increase with the number of poor living with 3.10 dollars a day, while median daily per capita income, and increase in persons above retiring age receiving pension decrease NCD DALYs attributable to the environment. Focusing on injury DALYs and deaths, an increase in the number of poor living at 3.10 dollars a day, non-agricultural informal employment, and total average concentration of f ine particulate matter increases injury DALYs while the latter is observed to decrease when there is an increase in the medial daily per capita income, agricultural employment outside the formal sector, and vulnerable persons covered by social assistance.

Socio-economic factors such as income, employment, education, and social welfare program affect morbidity, disability, and mortality.

BACKGROUND: Spatiotemporal disparities exist in the disease burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) attributable to kidney dysfunction, which has been poorly assessed. The present study aimed to evaluate the spatiotemporal trends of the global burden of NCDs attributable to kidney dysfunction and to predict future trends. METHODS: Data on NCDs attributable to kidney dysfunction, quantified using deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), were extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study in 2019. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of age-standardized rate (ASR) was calculated with linear regression to assess the changing trend. Pearson's correlation analysis was used to determine the association between ASR and sociodemographic index (SDI) for 21 GBD regions. A Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to predict future trends up to 2040. RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2019, the absolute number of deaths and DALYs from NCDs attributable to kidney dysfunction increased globally. The death cases increased from 1,571,720 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 1,344,420-1,805,598) in 1990 to 3,161,552 (95% UI: 2,723,363-3,623,814) in 2019 for both sexes combined. Both the ASR of death and DALYs increased in Andean Latin America, the Caribbean, Central Latin America, Southeast Asia, Oceania, and Southern Sub-Saharan Africa. In contrast, the age-standardized metrics decreased in the high-income Asia Pacific region. The relationship between SDI and ASR of death and DALYs was negatively correlated. The BAPC model indicated that there would be approximately 5,806,780 death cases and 119,013,659 DALY cases in 2040 that could be attributed to kidney dysfunction. Age-standardized death of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and CKD attributable to kidney dysfunction were predicted to decrease and increase from 2020 to 2040, respectively. CONCLUSION NCDs attributable to kidney dysfunction remain a major public health concern worldwide. Efforts are required to attenuate the death and disability burden, particularly in low and low-to-middle SDI regions.
Humans ; Noncommunicable Diseases/epidemiology* ; Global Burden of Disease ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Male ; Female ; Risk Factors ; Middle Aged ; Kidney Diseases/epidemiology* ; Bayes Theorem ; Adult ; Aged ; Global Health ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years

BACKGROUND: Research has indicated that the disease burden of alopecia areata (AA) in China exceeds the global average. Therefore, accurate and updated epidemiological information is crucial for policymakers. In this study, we aimed to comprehensively assess the disease burden of AA in China. METHODS: The following four key indicators were utilized: the prevalence of cases; disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs); the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR); and the age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) of AA according to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2021. We analyzed the epidemiological burden of AA in China during 2021, examined changes between 1990 and 2021, and performed a Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis to predict trends over the course of the next decade (2022-2030). Additionally, a Gaussian process regression model was applied to estimate the relationship between the gross domestic product (GDP) and the ASPR and ASDR of AA at the provincial level between 1992 and 2021. RESULTS: In 2021, the estimated number of patients with AA in China was approximately 3.49 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 3.37-3.62 million); of these patients, 1.20 million (95% UI, 1.16-1.25 million) were male and 2.29 million (95% UI, 2.20-2.37 million) were female. This large number of patients with AA resulted in a total of 114,431.25 DALYs (95% UI, 74,780.27-160,318.96 DALYs). Additionally, the ASPR and ASDR were 224.61 per 100,000 population (95% UI, 216.73-232.65 per 100,000 population) and 7.41 per 100,000 population (95% UI, 4.85-10.44 per 100,000 population), respectively; both of these rates were higher than the global averages. The most affected demographic groups were young and female individuals 25-39 years of age. Slight regional disparities were observed, with the northern and central regions of China bearing comparatively higher burdens. Between 1990 and 2021, the health loss and disease burden caused by AA in China remained relatively stable. The ASPR and ASDR of AA increased with the GDP when the annual GDP was less than 2 trillion Chinese yuan; however, a downward trend was observed as the GDP surpassed 2 trillion Chinese yuan. A slight upward trend in the disease burden of AA in China is predicted to occur over the next decade. CONCLUSIONS AA continues to be a public health concern in China that shows no signs of declining. Targeted efforts for young individuals and females are necessary because they experience a disproportionately high burden of AA.
Humans ; China/epidemiology* ; Alopecia Areata/epidemiology* ; Global Burden of Disease ; Female ; Male ; Adult ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Middle Aged ; Prevalence ; Adolescent ; Young Adult ; Bayes Theorem ; Child ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Child, Preschool

BACKGROUND: Approximately 40% of individuals with diabetes worldwide are at risk of developing diabetic kidney disease (DKD), which is not only the leading cause of kidney failure, but also significantly increases the risk of cardiovascular disease, causing significant societal health and financial burdens. This study aimed to describe the burden of DKD and explore its cross-country epidemiological status, predict development trends, and assess its risk factors and sociodemographic transitions. METHODS: Based on the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) Study 2021, data on DKD due to type 1 diabetes (DKD-T1DM) and type 2 diabetes (DKD-T2DM) were analyzed by sex, age, year, and location. Numbers and age-standardized rates were used to compare the disease burden between DKD-T1DM and DKD-T2DM among locations. Decomposition analysis was used to assess the potential drivers. Locally weighted scatter plot smoothing and Frontier analysis were used to estimate sociodemographic transitions of DKD disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). RESULTS: The DALYs due to DKD increased markedly from 1990 to 2021, with a 74.0% (from 2,227,518 to 3,875,628) and 173.6% (from 4,122,919 to 11,278,935) increase for DKD-T1DM and DKD-T2DM, respectively. In 2030, the estimated DALYs for DKD-T1DM surpassed 4.4 million, with that of DKD-T2DM exceeding 14.6 million. Notably, middle-sociodemographic index (SDI) quintile was responsible for the most significant DALYs. Decomposition analysis revealed that population growth and aging were major drivers for the increased DKD DALYs in most regions. Interestingly, the most pronounced effect of positive DALYs change from 1990 to 2021 was presented in high-SDI quintile, while in low-SDI quintile, DALYs for DKD-T1DM and DKD-T2DM presented a decreasing trend over the past years. Frontiers analysis revealed that there was a negative association between SDI quintiles and age-standardized DALY rates (ASDRs) in DKD-T1DM and DKD-T2DM. Countries with middle-SDI shouldered disproportionately high DKD burden. Kidney dysfunction (nearly 100.0% for DKD-T1DM and DKD-T2DM), high fasting plasma glucose (70.8% for DKD-T1DM and 87.4% for DKD-T2DM), and non-optimal temperatures (low and high, 5.0% for DKD-T1DM and 5.1% for DKD-T2DM) were common risk factors for age-standardized DALYs in T1DM-DKD and T2DM-DKD. There were other specific risk factors for DKD-T2DM such as high body mass index (38.2%), high systolic blood pressure (10.2%), dietary risks (17.8%), low physical activity (6.2%), lead exposure (1.2%), and other environmental risks. CONCLUSIONS DKD markedly increased and varied significantly across regions, contributing to a substantial disease burden, especially in middle-SDI countries. The rise in DKD is primarily driven by population growth, aging, and key risk factors such as high fasting plasma glucose and kidney dysfunction, with projections suggesting continued escalation of the burden by 2030.
Humans ; Global Burden of Disease ; Risk Factors ; Male ; Female ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Diabetic Nephropathies/epidemiology* ; Middle Aged ; Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/epidemiology* ; Adult ; Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1/complications* ; Aged ; Adolescent ; Young Adult ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years

BACKGROUND: Most studies have evaluated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of colorectal cancer (CRC) patients based on a set of generic disability weights (DWs). This study aimed to apply local CRC-stage-specific DWs to estimate the burden of DALYs for CRC (CRC-DALYs) in populations in China and consider the influence of local screening coverage of CRC. METHODS: A prevalence-based model was constructed using data from various sources. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated mainly via cumulative prevalence data (based on CRC incidence rates, population numbers, and survival rates), stage-specific proportions of CRC, and DWs of the local population. Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated based on the CRC mortality rates and standard life expectancies. CRC incidence and mortality rates for the years 2020, 2025, and 2030 were estimated by joinpoint regression, and the corresponding DALYs were predicted. The main assumption was made for CRC screening coverage. Sensitivity analyses were used to assess the impact of population, DWs, and coverage. RESULTS: In 2017, among the Chinese population, the estimated number of CRC-DALYs was 4,303,314 (11.9% for YLDs). If CRC screening coverage rate in China (2.3%) remains unchanged, the overall DALYs in 2030 are predicted to increase by 37.2% (45.1% of those aged ≥65 years). More optimistically, the DALYs would then decrease by 0.7% in 2030 (from 5,902,454 to 5,860,200) if the coverage could be increased to 25.0%. A sensitivity analysis revealed that using local DWs would change the base-case values by 5.7%. CONCLUSIONS The estimated CRC-DALYs in China using population-specific DWs were considerably lower (with a higher percentage of YLDs) than the global burden of disease (GBD) estimates (5,865,004, of 4.6% for YLDs), suggesting the impact extent of applying local parameters. Sustainable scale-up CRC screening needs to be in place to moderate the growth trend of CRC-DALYs in China.
Humans ; Colorectal Neoplasms/diagnosis* ; China/epidemiology* ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Male ; Prevalence ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Early Detection of Cancer ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Adult ; Incidence

BACKGROUND: The epidemiological pattern and disease burden of type 2 diabetes have been shifting in China over the past decades. This analysis described the epidemiological transition of type 2 diabetes in the past three decades and projected the trend in the future three decades in China. METHODS: Age-, sex-, and year-specific incidence, prevalence, death, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for people with 15 years or older and diabetes or high fasting glucose in China and related countries from 1990 to 2021 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease. We obtained the trends of age-, sex-, and year-specific rates and absolute numbers of incidence, prevalence, deaths, and DALYs attributable to type 2 diabetes in China from 1990 to 2021. Using the Lee-Carter model, we projected the incidence, prevalence, death, and DALYs attributable to type 2 diabetes to 2050 stratified by age and sex. RESULTS: The age-standardized incidence of type 2 diabetes was 341.5 per 100,000 persons (1.6 times in 1990) and the age-standardized prevalence was 9.96% (9960.0 per 100,000 persons, 2.5 times in 1990) in China 2021. In 2021, there were 0.9 million deaths and 26.8 million DALYs due to type 2 diabetes or hyperglycemia, as 2.9 and 2.7 times the data in 1990, respectively. The age-standardized rates of type 2 diabetes and hyperglycemia were projected to raise to 449.5 per 100,000 persons for incidence, 18.17% for prevalence, 244.6 per 100,000 persons for death, and 4720.2 per 100,000 persons for DALYs by 2050. The incidence of type 2 diabetes kept growing among individuals under the age of 20 years in the past three decades (128.7 per 100,000 persons in 1990 and 439.9 per 100,000 persons in 2021) and estimating 1870.8 per 100,000 in 2050. CONCLUSIONS The incidence, prevalence, and disease burden of type 2 diabetes grew rapidly in China in the past three decades. The prevention of type 2 diabetes in young people and the care for elder adults will be the greatest challenge for the country.
Humans ; Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/mortality* ; China/epidemiology* ; Prevalence ; Female ; Male ; Incidence ; Middle Aged ; Adult ; Aged ; Adolescent ; Young Adult ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Aged, 80 and over

BACKGROUND: Chronic liver disease (CLD), mainly non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), is a significant public health concern worldwide. This study aims to quantify the burden of NAFLD in CLD globally and within China, using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021, providing crucial insights for global and local health policies. METHODS: The study used comprehensive data from the GBD study 2021. It included estimates of prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Age-standardized rates and average annual percent change (AAPC) from 2011 to 2021 were reported. A meticulous decomposition analysis was conducted. RESULTS: In 2021, there were 1582.5 million prevalent cases, 47.6 million incident cases, 1.4 million deaths, and 44.4 million DALYs attributable to CLD, globally. Among these, NAFLD has emerged as the predominant cause, accounting for 78.0% of all prevalent CLD cases (1234.7 million) and 87.2% of incident cases (41.5 million). Correspondingly, NAFLD had the highest age-standardized prevalence (15,017.5 per 100,000 population) and incidence (876.5 per 100,000 population) rates among CLDs. In addition, China's CLD age-standardized prevalence rate was 21,659.5 per 100,000 population, and the age-standardized incidence rate was 752.6 per 100,000 population, higher than the global average. From 2011 to 2021, the global prevalence rate of CLD increased slowly (AAPC = 0.17), consistent with the trend in China (AAPC = 0.23). Furthermore, the prevalence rate of NAFLD rose significantly in China (AAPC = 1.30) compared with the global average (AAPC = 0.91). Decomposition analysis also showed the worldwide increase in deaths and DALYs for NAFLD, which were primarily attributable to population growth and aging. CONCLUSIONS The burden of CLD and NAFLD remains substantial globally and within China in terms of high prevalence and incidence. As such, this underscores the need for targeted prevention and treatment strategies. These findings emphasize the importance of continued surveillance and research to mitigate the growing impact of liver diseases on global and Chinese health systems.
Humans ; Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease/mortality* ; Global Burden of Disease ; China/epidemiology* ; Prevalence ; Male ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Female ; Incidence ; Middle Aged ; Chronic Disease ; Adult ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Liver Diseases/epidemiology* ; Aged