OBJECTIVES: To study the incidence and disease burden of congenital birth defects in children under five in China from 1990 to 2021 and to predict the incidence of congenital birth defects in this population from 2022 to 2036, providing a reference for the prevention of congenital birth defects in children. METHODS: Using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) database, the incidence and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) were employed to describe the disease burden. The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trends in incidence and DALY rates of congenital birth defects in children under five. A grey prediction model GM(1,1) was applied to fit the trend of incidence rates of congenital birth defects in this age group and to predict the incidence from 2022 to 2036. RESULTS: In 2021, the incidence rate of congenital birth defects among children under five in China was 737.28 per 100 000. Among these, congenital musculoskeletal and limb deformities had the highest incidence rate at 307.15 per 100 000, followed by congenital heart defects (223.53 per 100 000), congenital urinary and genital tract malformations (74.99 per 100 000), and congenital gastrointestinal malformations (62.61 per 100 000). From 1990 to 2021, the incidence rate and DALY rate of congenital birth defects in children under five in China decreased at an average annual rate of 1.73% and 5.42%, respectively. The prediction analysis indicated a decreasing trend in the incidence of congenital birth defects among children under five in China from 2022 to 2036, with the incidence rate dropping from 892.36 per 100 000 in 2022 to 783.35 per 100 000 in 2036. CONCLUSIONS The incidence and disease burden of congenital birth defects in children under five in China showed a significant declining trend from 1990 to 2021. It is predicted that this incidence will continue to decrease until 2036.
Humans ; Congenital Abnormalities/epidemiology* ; China/epidemiology* ; Incidence ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; Child, Preschool ; Female ; Male ; Forecasting ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the disease burden of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) among children and adolescents in China and to predict future trends, in order to provide evidence for disease control strategies. METHODS: Based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021), joinpoint regression and prediction models were constructed to analyze and forecast the trends in ADHD burden indicators among Chinese children and adolescents from 1990 to 2021. RESULTS: In 2021, the incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates of ADHD among children and adolescents in China increased by 41.46%, 21.44%, and 21.75%, respectively, compared to 1990. From 1990 to 2021, the disease burden of ADHD showed an overall upward trend across sex and age groups, with a heavier burden among males. The highest incidence was observed in children aged 5-9 years, while the highest prevalence and DALY rates were found in those aged 10-14 years. By 2031, the incidence, prevalence, and DALY rates of ADHD among Chinese children and adolescents are projected to reach 324.88 per 100 000, 3 762.36 per 100 000, and 45.85 per 100 000, respectively. CONCLUSIONS From 1990 to 2021, the incidence, prevalence, and DALY rates of ADHD among children and adolescents in China have all increased, suggesting that more proactive prevention and intervention measures may be needed to alleviate the disease burden of ADHD in this population.
Humans ; Child ; Adolescent ; Attention Deficit Disorder with Hyperactivity/epidemiology* ; Male ; Female ; Child, Preschool ; China/epidemiology* ; Cost of Illness ; Prevalence ; Incidence ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Forecasting ; East Asian People

OBJECTIVES: To analyze the disease burden of melanoma among middle-aged and elderly populations in China, and to predict the future trend. METHODS: Data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 were utilized to collect incidence and mortality rates of melanoma, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and corresponding age crude rates among the middle-aged and elderly population in China during 1990 and 2021. Additionally, the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was employed to assess the temporal trends. Age-period-cohort (APC) and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models were utilized to compute age, period, and cohort effects on incidence and mortality rates of melanoma, as well as to predict future trends up to 2035. RESULTS: During 1990-2021, the incidence rate of melanoma for males was higher than that for females among the middle-aged and elderly population in China, and the overall incidence rate increased annually with an EAPC of 2.13 (1.90-2.36), while the overall mortality rate and DALY rate showed a declining trend with an EAPC of －0.28 (－0.41-－0.15) and －0.54 (－0.68-－0.41), respectively. The results of the APC model analysis revealed that age effects on both incidence and mortality rates of melanoma in China's middle-aged and elderly population were significant, with both increasing with age. Period and cohort effects showed an upward trend for incidence rates but a downward trend for mortality rates. Moreover, the period and cohort effects for mortality rates were not significant among females. In the BAPC prediction model, the number of incidences of melanoma in middle-aged and elderly people in China would increase dramatically. By 2035, the number of incidence cases is expected to reach approximately 9600 (males) and 10 300 (females), corresponding to an incidence rate of 2.66/10⁵ and 2.67/10⁵, respectively. The number of deaths is projected to be about 2600 (males) and 3500 (females) by 2035, corresponding to a mortality rate of 0.72/10⁵ and 0.91/10⁵, respectively. CONCLUSIONS The disease burden of melanoma among the middle-aged and elderly population in China remains substantial and is expected to increase over the next decade.
Humans ; Melanoma/mortality* ; China/epidemiology* ; Aged ; Middle Aged ; Male ; Female ; Incidence ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Bayes Theorem ; Cost of Illness ; Skin Neoplasms/epidemiology*

OBJECTIVES: To analyze sex and age distribution of global disease burden of calcific aortic valve disease (CAVD) from 1990 to 2021. METHODS: CAVD data during 1990-2021 were obtained from the IHME website for Global Burden of Disease (GBD). The prevalence, mortality, years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were analyzed by gender and age groups. Joinpoint regression was used to calculate annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC). RESULTS: In 2021, there were 13.32 million CAVD patients and 142 000 deaths caused by CAVD globally. Age-standardized prevalence was higher in males (193.2/10⁵) than that in females (128.9/10⁵). Patients in 65-<85 age group accounted for 64.0% of total cases, while those ≥85 years old accounted for 16.1%. From 1990 to 2021, prevalence increased in both sexes with an AAPC of 0.72% for males and 0.57% for females, respectively. Prevalence grew fastest from 2000 to 2010, slowed thereafter, and declined from 2015 to 2021. In <65 years old, the mortality of males was 2.4 times higher than that of females, while in ≥85 years old, mortality of females (117.3/10⁵) exceeded that of males (99.1/10⁵). YLD rates increased with age, and were higher in males for all age groups. DALY rates decreased overall but increased in ≥85 years old, with a greater increase in females. CONCLUSIONS There are significant gender and age disparities in global disease burden of CAVD, with the elderly, especially super-elderly females deserving particular attention. It is recommended to develop personalized intervention strategies for these populations.
Humans ; Male ; Female ; Aged ; Calcinosis/mortality* ; Prevalence ; Global Burden of Disease ; Aged, 80 and over ; Middle Aged ; Aortic Valve/pathology* ; Aortic Valve Stenosis/epidemiology* ; Age Distribution ; Adult ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Sex Distribution ; Global Health ; Aortic Valve Disease/epidemiology* ; Sex Factors

OBJECTIVES: Nasopharyngeal carcinoma is often diagnosed at a late stage due to its concealed location and exhibits marked regional clustering, posing a significant public health challenge in China. This study aims to analyze the disease burden of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China using the latest 2021 Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) database, providing epidemiological evidence for precise prevention and control of nasopharyngeal carcinoma. METHODS: Age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), mortality rate, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate were used as indicators of disease burden. Stratified analyses were conducted by age, sex, socio-demographic index (SDI), and relevant risk factors. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model were employed to project ASIR trends through 2050. RESULTS: In 2021, China's age-standardized incidence, mortality, and DALY rates of nasopharyngeal carcinoma were 3.4/100 000, 1.5/100 000, and 48.7/100 000, respectively, all higher than the global average. Across all age groups, Chinese males exhibited higher ASIR, mortality, and DALY rates than females. From 1990 to 2021, the disease burden of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China decreased gradually with rising SDI. The proportion of nasopharyngeal carcinoma burden attributed to alcohol consumption, smoking, and occupational formaldehyde exposure in China exceeded global levels, especially among males. Projections from both models indicate a rising trend in ASIR for males, females, and the general population in China and globally from 2022 to 2050. CONCLUSIONS Over the past 30 years, the disease burden of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China has decreased with the increasing SDI values but remains higher than the global average. Furthermore, ASIR is projected to increase over the next 30 years. It is imperative for China to enhance healthcare resource allocation for nasopharyngeal carcinoma prevention, diagnosis, and treatment, particularly among high-risk male populations.
Humans ; China/epidemiology* ; Male ; Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma/mortality* ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Nasopharyngeal Neoplasms/mortality* ; Adult ; Incidence ; Global Burden of Disease ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Aged ; Risk Factors ; Adolescent ; Databases, Factual ; Young Adult ; Cost of Illness ; Child ; Bayes Theorem

OBJECTIVES: Near vision loss (NVL) is one of the leading causes of visual impairment worldwide, exerting a profound impact on individual quality of life and socio-economic development. This study aims to analyze the burden of NVL in China by sex and age groups from 1990 to 2021 and to project trends over the next 15 years. METHODS: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database, we conducted descriptive analyses of NVL prevalence in China, calculated age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rates (ASDR) to compare burden differences between sexes and age groups, and applied an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict NVL trends for the next 15 years. The model selection was based on best-fit criteria to ensure reliable projections. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2021, China's ASPR of NVL rose from 10 096.24/100 000 to 15 624.54/100 000, and ASDR increased from 101.75/100 000 to 158.75/100 000. In 2021, ASPR (16 551.70/100 000) and ASDR (167.69/100 000) were higher among females than males (14 686.21/100 000 and 149.76/100 000, respectively). China ranked highest globally in both NVL cases and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), with female burden significantly exceeding male burden. Projections indicated this trend and sex gap will persist until 2036. Compared with 1990, the prevalence cases and DALYs increased by 239.20% and 238.82%, respectively in 2021, with the highest burden among females and the 55-59 age group. The ARIMA model predicted continued increases in prevalence and DALYs by 2036, with females maintaining a higher burden than males. CONCLUSIONS This study reveals a marked increase in the NVL burden in China and predicts continued growth in the coming years. Public health policies should prioritize NVL prevention and control, with special attention to women and middle-aged populations to mitigate long-term societal and health impacts.
Humans ; China/epidemiology* ; Male ; Female ; Prevalence ; Middle Aged ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Adult ; Global Burden of Disease ; Adolescent ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Aged ; Sex Factors ; Child ; Young Adult ; Child, Preschool ; Cost of Illness ; Infant ; Aged, 80 and over ; Vision Disorders/epidemiology*

BACKGROUND: Spatiotemporal disparities exist in the disease burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) attributable to kidney dysfunction, which has been poorly assessed. The present study aimed to evaluate the spatiotemporal trends of the global burden of NCDs attributable to kidney dysfunction and to predict future trends. METHODS: Data on NCDs attributable to kidney dysfunction, quantified using deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), were extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study in 2019. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of age-standardized rate (ASR) was calculated with linear regression to assess the changing trend. Pearson's correlation analysis was used to determine the association between ASR and sociodemographic index (SDI) for 21 GBD regions. A Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to predict future trends up to 2040. RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2019, the absolute number of deaths and DALYs from NCDs attributable to kidney dysfunction increased globally. The death cases increased from 1,571,720 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 1,344,420-1,805,598) in 1990 to 3,161,552 (95% UI: 2,723,363-3,623,814) in 2019 for both sexes combined. Both the ASR of death and DALYs increased in Andean Latin America, the Caribbean, Central Latin America, Southeast Asia, Oceania, and Southern Sub-Saharan Africa. In contrast, the age-standardized metrics decreased in the high-income Asia Pacific region. The relationship between SDI and ASR of death and DALYs was negatively correlated. The BAPC model indicated that there would be approximately 5,806,780 death cases and 119,013,659 DALY cases in 2040 that could be attributed to kidney dysfunction. Age-standardized death of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and CKD attributable to kidney dysfunction were predicted to decrease and increase from 2020 to 2040, respectively. CONCLUSION NCDs attributable to kidney dysfunction remain a major public health concern worldwide. Efforts are required to attenuate the death and disability burden, particularly in low and low-to-middle SDI regions.
Humans ; Noncommunicable Diseases/epidemiology* ; Global Burden of Disease ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Male ; Female ; Risk Factors ; Middle Aged ; Kidney Diseases/epidemiology* ; Bayes Theorem ; Adult ; Aged ; Global Health ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years

BACKGROUND: Research has indicated that the disease burden of alopecia areata (AA) in China exceeds the global average. Therefore, accurate and updated epidemiological information is crucial for policymakers. In this study, we aimed to comprehensively assess the disease burden of AA in China. METHODS: The following four key indicators were utilized: the prevalence of cases; disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs); the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR); and the age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) of AA according to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2021. We analyzed the epidemiological burden of AA in China during 2021, examined changes between 1990 and 2021, and performed a Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis to predict trends over the course of the next decade (2022-2030). Additionally, a Gaussian process regression model was applied to estimate the relationship between the gross domestic product (GDP) and the ASPR and ASDR of AA at the provincial level between 1992 and 2021. RESULTS: In 2021, the estimated number of patients with AA in China was approximately 3.49 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 3.37-3.62 million); of these patients, 1.20 million (95% UI, 1.16-1.25 million) were male and 2.29 million (95% UI, 2.20-2.37 million) were female. This large number of patients with AA resulted in a total of 114,431.25 DALYs (95% UI, 74,780.27-160,318.96 DALYs). Additionally, the ASPR and ASDR were 224.61 per 100,000 population (95% UI, 216.73-232.65 per 100,000 population) and 7.41 per 100,000 population (95% UI, 4.85-10.44 per 100,000 population), respectively; both of these rates were higher than the global averages. The most affected demographic groups were young and female individuals 25-39 years of age. Slight regional disparities were observed, with the northern and central regions of China bearing comparatively higher burdens. Between 1990 and 2021, the health loss and disease burden caused by AA in China remained relatively stable. The ASPR and ASDR of AA increased with the GDP when the annual GDP was less than 2 trillion Chinese yuan; however, a downward trend was observed as the GDP surpassed 2 trillion Chinese yuan. A slight upward trend in the disease burden of AA in China is predicted to occur over the next decade. CONCLUSIONS AA continues to be a public health concern in China that shows no signs of declining. Targeted efforts for young individuals and females are necessary because they experience a disproportionately high burden of AA.
Humans ; China/epidemiology* ; Alopecia Areata/epidemiology* ; Global Burden of Disease ; Female ; Male ; Adult ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Middle Aged ; Prevalence ; Adolescent ; Young Adult ; Bayes Theorem ; Child ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Child, Preschool

BACKGROUND: Approximately 40% of individuals with diabetes worldwide are at risk of developing diabetic kidney disease (DKD), which is not only the leading cause of kidney failure, but also significantly increases the risk of cardiovascular disease, causing significant societal health and financial burdens. This study aimed to describe the burden of DKD and explore its cross-country epidemiological status, predict development trends, and assess its risk factors and sociodemographic transitions. METHODS: Based on the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) Study 2021, data on DKD due to type 1 diabetes (DKD-T1DM) and type 2 diabetes (DKD-T2DM) were analyzed by sex, age, year, and location. Numbers and age-standardized rates were used to compare the disease burden between DKD-T1DM and DKD-T2DM among locations. Decomposition analysis was used to assess the potential drivers. Locally weighted scatter plot smoothing and Frontier analysis were used to estimate sociodemographic transitions of DKD disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). RESULTS: The DALYs due to DKD increased markedly from 1990 to 2021, with a 74.0% (from 2,227,518 to 3,875,628) and 173.6% (from 4,122,919 to 11,278,935) increase for DKD-T1DM and DKD-T2DM, respectively. In 2030, the estimated DALYs for DKD-T1DM surpassed 4.4 million, with that of DKD-T2DM exceeding 14.6 million. Notably, middle-sociodemographic index (SDI) quintile was responsible for the most significant DALYs. Decomposition analysis revealed that population growth and aging were major drivers for the increased DKD DALYs in most regions. Interestingly, the most pronounced effect of positive DALYs change from 1990 to 2021 was presented in high-SDI quintile, while in low-SDI quintile, DALYs for DKD-T1DM and DKD-T2DM presented a decreasing trend over the past years. Frontiers analysis revealed that there was a negative association between SDI quintiles and age-standardized DALY rates (ASDRs) in DKD-T1DM and DKD-T2DM. Countries with middle-SDI shouldered disproportionately high DKD burden. Kidney dysfunction (nearly 100.0% for DKD-T1DM and DKD-T2DM), high fasting plasma glucose (70.8% for DKD-T1DM and 87.4% for DKD-T2DM), and non-optimal temperatures (low and high, 5.0% for DKD-T1DM and 5.1% for DKD-T2DM) were common risk factors for age-standardized DALYs in T1DM-DKD and T2DM-DKD. There were other specific risk factors for DKD-T2DM such as high body mass index (38.2%), high systolic blood pressure (10.2%), dietary risks (17.8%), low physical activity (6.2%), lead exposure (1.2%), and other environmental risks. CONCLUSIONS DKD markedly increased and varied significantly across regions, contributing to a substantial disease burden, especially in middle-SDI countries. The rise in DKD is primarily driven by population growth, aging, and key risk factors such as high fasting plasma glucose and kidney dysfunction, with projections suggesting continued escalation of the burden by 2030.
Humans ; Global Burden of Disease ; Risk Factors ; Male ; Female ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Diabetic Nephropathies/epidemiology* ; Middle Aged ; Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/epidemiology* ; Adult ; Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1/complications* ; Aged ; Adolescent ; Young Adult ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years

BACKGROUND: Most studies have evaluated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of colorectal cancer (CRC) patients based on a set of generic disability weights (DWs). This study aimed to apply local CRC-stage-specific DWs to estimate the burden of DALYs for CRC (CRC-DALYs) in populations in China and consider the influence of local screening coverage of CRC. METHODS: A prevalence-based model was constructed using data from various sources. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated mainly via cumulative prevalence data (based on CRC incidence rates, population numbers, and survival rates), stage-specific proportions of CRC, and DWs of the local population. Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated based on the CRC mortality rates and standard life expectancies. CRC incidence and mortality rates for the years 2020, 2025, and 2030 were estimated by joinpoint regression, and the corresponding DALYs were predicted. The main assumption was made for CRC screening coverage. Sensitivity analyses were used to assess the impact of population, DWs, and coverage. RESULTS: In 2017, among the Chinese population, the estimated number of CRC-DALYs was 4,303,314 (11.9% for YLDs). If CRC screening coverage rate in China (2.3%) remains unchanged, the overall DALYs in 2030 are predicted to increase by 37.2% (45.1% of those aged ≥65 years). More optimistically, the DALYs would then decrease by 0.7% in 2030 (from 5,902,454 to 5,860,200) if the coverage could be increased to 25.0%. A sensitivity analysis revealed that using local DWs would change the base-case values by 5.7%. CONCLUSIONS The estimated CRC-DALYs in China using population-specific DWs were considerably lower (with a higher percentage of YLDs) than the global burden of disease (GBD) estimates (5,865,004, of 4.6% for YLDs), suggesting the impact extent of applying local parameters. Sustainable scale-up CRC screening needs to be in place to moderate the growth trend of CRC-DALYs in China.
Humans ; Colorectal Neoplasms/diagnosis* ; China/epidemiology* ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Male ; Prevalence ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Early Detection of Cancer ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Adult ; Incidence