1.Evaluation of CARIFS Score and Negative Antigen Conversion Rate of Qingxuan Daozhi Formula in Treatment of Influenza in Children (Heat Accumulation in Lung and Stomach Syndrome):A Multi-center Randomized Controlled Clinical Study
Jing WANG ; Liqun WU ; Tiegang LIU ; Yongning CAO ; Jing QIU ; Jing LI ; Huaqing TAN ; Ying ZHANG ; Xulei GOU ; Jia WANG ; Jing LI ; Haipeng CHEN ; Xueying QIN ; Yuanshuo TIAN ; Yang WANG ; Chen BAI ; Zhendong WANG ; Qianqian LI ; He YU ; Xueyan MA ; Fei DONG ; Lin JIANG ; Yingqi XU ; Jianping LIU ; Xiaohong GU
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(13):188-196
ObjectiveThis paper aims to observe the syndrome improvement and negative antigen conversion rate of Qingxuan Daozhi formula in the treatment of influenza in children (heat accumulation in the lung and stomach syndrome). MethodsThrough a multi-center randomized controlled methodology design,confirmed influenza cases were collected from October 2022 to April 2023 in the pediatrics department of eight hospitals,such as Dongfang Hospital of Beijing University of Chinese Medicine. A total of 180 children with influenza and heat accumulation in the lung and stomach syndrome conforming to the standard were recruited through the clinic. The sick children meeting the inclusion criteria were randomly divided into groups by a block-randomized method. The children in the experimental group were treated with Qingxuan Daozhi formula for five days,and those in the control group were treated with Oseltamivir Phosphate Granules for five days. The primary efficacy indicator was the negative conversion rate of influenza antigen detection. Secondary efficacy indicators were the Canadian acute respiratory illness and flu scale (CARIFS) and the incidence of complications,severe cases, and critical cases. Follow-up observation was conducted on the day of enrollment,48 hours after medication,72 hours after medication, and (6+1) d after medication. ResultsOne hundred and eighty participants were randomly assigned to the experimental group (90 cases) or the control group (90 cases). All participants were followed up during the study. Comparison of influenza antigen detection results in the primary efficacy indicators showed that the average time of negative influenza antigen conversion in the experimental group was (5.29±1.25) d,and that in the control group was (5.40±1.68) d,without a statistically significant difference. After five days of intervention,52 cases in the experimental group and 51 cases in the control group converted to negative,without a statistically significant difference. CARIFS score results in the secondary efficacy indicators showed that during 72 hours after intervention,there were statistically significant differences between the experimental group and the control group in three dimensions, including headache,muscle soreness, and the need for extra care (P<0.05). On the (6+1) days after the intervention,the differences in both the experimental group and the control group were statistically significant in 10 dimensions, including sore throat,bad sleep,uncomfortable feeling,poor spirit and fatigue,crying more than usual,the need for extra care,symptom,function,influence on parents,and total score (P<0.05). The comparison results within the group in the dimensional scores of symptom, function, and influence on parents,as well as the CARIFS total score showed that with the delay of follow-up time,scores of both groups decreased significantly,with a statistically significant difference (P<0.01). Inter-group comparison results showed that the mean score of the experimental group was higher than that of the control group at the time of enrollment. With the progress of intervention,the score of the experimental group was significantly decreased compared with that of the control group. At the end of follow-up,the mean score of the experimental group was lower than that of the control group,with no statistically significant difference. In terms of the incidence of complications,severe cases, and critical cases, there were no complications,severe cases, and critical cases in the two groups,without a statistically significant difference. ConclusionThe symptom improvement effect and negative antigen conversion rate of Qingxuan Daozhi formula in the treatment of influenza in children (heat accumulation in the lung and stomach syndrome) are not inferior to Oseltamivir Phosphate granules, and children's acceptance is better. It can be more widely used in clinical treatment of influenza in children (heat accumulation in the lung and stomach syndrome).
2.Construction of a risk prediction model for failure of proximal femoral nail antirotation fixation in intertrochanteric fractures
Zesong TU ; Daxing XU ; Hongbin LUO ; Yusheng WANG ; Xinglun FENG ; Zhonghua PENG ; Shaolong DU
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2025;29(27):5845-5853
BACKGROUND:Intertrochanteric femoral fractures are the main type of fragility fracture in the elderly,and proximal femoral nail antirotation is the preferred surgical option,but the factors associated with postoperative internal fixation failure are controversial.OBJECTIVE:A new"three-column"classification of intertrochanteric femoral fractures was proposed by evaluating patients'imaging data preoperatively and analyzing its interaction with postoperative internal fixation failure.A risk prediction model was developed and validated by using numerical algorithms,which facilitates clinicians to identify and intervene in high-risk patients preoperatively.METHODS:Patients with intertrochanteric femur fractures in Sanshui Branch of Foshan Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine between June 2012 and June 2022 were selected.The patients were divided into the internal fixation failure group and the internal fixation maintenance group according to whether they had internal fixation failure after surgery.According to the preoperative radiographs,the proximal femur was divided into three columns:the medial column,the lateral column,and the middle column.Each column had different subgroups.The relationship between the morphological characteristics of the"three columns"and the failure of proximal femoral nail antirotation internal fixation was analyzed,and the independent risk factors for internal fixation failure were screened out by single and then multifactorial logistic regression analyses.A risk prediction model was constructed according to the independent risk factors using R language software.The Bootstrap method was used to resample 1 000 times.The area under the curve,calibration curve,and clinical decision curve were used to evaluate the differentiation,calibration ability,and clinical application value of the model.The Youden index was used to determine the optimal risk cut-off value of the prediction model,according to which the patients were divided into high and low risk groups.The stability and extensibility of the model were evaluated according to the accuracy of its risk prediction ability.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)The four independent risk factors for postoperative internal fixation failure after surgery were predicted using the"three-column"typing system:medial column(comminuted fracture of the lesser trochanter and femoral talar)[odds ratio=5.385,95%CI(1.961,14.782),P=0.001],medial column(chimney type)[odds ratio=2.893,95%CI(1.167,7.173),P=0.022],lateral column(lateral wall thickness<20.5 mm)[odds ratio=2.804,95%CI(1.078,7.297),P=0.035]and lateral column(lateral wall fracture)[odds ratio=4.278,95%CI(1.670,10.959),P=0.012].(2)The constructed risk prediction model showed good discrimination and accuracy[area under the receiver operating characteristic curve=0.852,95%CI(0.837,0.922)].The calibration curve showed good agreement between the model-predicted risk and the actual risk of occurrence.(3)The clinical decision curve suggested that the model had good clinical applicability when the risk threshold probability was in the range of 0.2-0.82.The risk probability of 28%was the optimal threshold for risk stratification of the model,and the predictive performance of the model was better in patients with different risk groups.(4)The"three-column"typing system constructs a predictive model to calculate the risk probability of postoperative internal fixation failure in patients with intertrochanteric femoral fractures.This method is accurate,simple,and easy to apply clinically,and can be used as a digital tool to guide personalized clinical treatment.
3.Machine learning prediction of the risk of secondary screw perforation after plate internal fixation for proximal humerus fractures
Daxing XU ; Zesong TU ; Muqiang JI ; Weipeng XU ; Wei NIU
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2025;29(15):3179-3187
BACKGROUND:Secondary screw perforation of the articular surface is one of the major complications after locking plate internal fixation of proximal humerus fracture,and cut-out screws can damage shoulder function by abrading the glenoid and causing impingement of the acromion.Therefore,accurate risk prediction has positive clinical significance.OBJECTIVE:To screen risk factors for secondary screw perforation after proximal humerus fracture plating by machine learning methods,and to develop and validate a risk prediction model that facilitates clinicians to identify and intervene in high-risk patients at an early stage.METHODS:Clinical data of 214 patients with proximal humerus fractures who underwent locking plate internal fixation from June 2013 to June 2022 were collected as a training group to establish the model,and 61 similar patients from another hospital in the same period were included in the external validation group.The patients were divided into secondary screw perforation and screw maintenance groups according to whether they developed secondary screw perforation after surgery.The training group used three machine learning algorithms,namely,random forest,support vector machine,and logistic regression,to construct the prediction model.The recursive feature elimination method was used,and 10-fold cross-validation resampling was used as the screening method for the variables,and the intersection of the variables that were included when the accuracy of the three models was the highest was taken as the highly correlated with the secondary screw perforation reliable risk variables.The dynamic predictive model was constructed by R language software and presented as a web calculator,and the model was internally and externally validated.The internal test of the model was conducted by the Bootstrap method with 1 000 resamples,and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve,the calibration curve,and the clinical decision curve were used to evaluate the differentiation,calibration ability,and clinical application value of the model.The Youden index was used to determine the optimal risk threshold of the prediction model,according to which the patients in the external validation group were divided into high-and low-risk groups,and the stability and extensibility of the model were evaluated according to the accuracy of its risk prediction ability.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)The machine learning algorithm identified four risk variables that were highly correlated with secondary screw perforation,namely cortical support of the proximal medial humeral column,deltoid tuberosity index,fracture type,and postoperative reduction.(2)The constructed risk prediction model showed good discrimination and accuracy[area under the curve=0.874,95%confidence interval(0.827,0.922)],and the calibration curve showed good agreement between the model predicted risk and the actual occurrence risk.(3)The clinical decision curve suggested that the model had good clinical applicability when the probability of the risk threshold was in the 0.1-0.75 range.(4)A risk probability of 26%was the optimal threshold for model risk stratification,and the external validation group used model risk stratification to predict secondary screw perforation with an overall accuracy rate of 84%.(5)The risk prediction model has good accuracy and extrapolation,and may provide a basis for guiding clinical treatment.
4.Analysis of imaging signs of ovarian torsion in children
Hui MA ; Lihua DAI ; Yingfei WANG ; Jianjun LIN ; Qiuyun TANG ; Daxing XU
Journal of Practical Radiology 2025;41(2):285-288
Objective To summarize and analyze the CT or MRI imaging signs of ovarian torsion in children.Methods The CT or MRI data of 24 children surgically confirmed ovarian torsion were analyzed retrospectively,focusing on imaging signs such as ovarian position,size,the relationship with surrounding appendages and uterus.Results In this group of cases,8 cases underwent CT examination and 16 cases underwent MRI examination.Among the age of children,12 cases were in newborns,and 6 cases were in school-age and adolescent children respectively.It was more common in newborns and children aged 10-12 years old.Among the 24 patients,3 cases(12.5%)had primary ovarian torsion,all of which were adolescent children;21 cases(87.5%)had secondary ovarian torsion,with all torsions in the neonatal period were secondary ovarian torsion.Among secondary ovarian torsion,there were 7 cases(33.3%)of ovarian teratoma with torsion,12 cases(57.1%)of simple ovarian cysts,1 case(4.7%)of ovarian serous cystadenoma,and 1 case(4.7%)of ovarian mucinous cyst.Torsion occurred in 9 cases(37.5%)of the left ovary and 15 cases(62.5%)of the right ovary,with right ovarian torsion being more common.Imaging signs included varying degrees of enlargement of the ovaries on the ipsilateral side of the torsion,with 14 cases(58.3%)of ovarian masses had a maximum diameter≥5 cm,and 3-5 cm being more common in the neonatal period.There were 11 cases(45.8%)with the pedicle sign/vortex sign on the ipsilateral side of the torsion,9 cases(37.5%)with mass and hemorrhage,4 cases(16.7%)with mass displacement to the midline or uterine displacement to the ipsilateral side,and 3 cases(12.5%)of the ovarian follicle outward migration showed fruit bowl sign.Conclusion Secondary ovarian torsion is relatively common in children,with distinctive imaging manifestations.Especially when neonatal ovarian cysts show hemorrhagic signals should be alert to the risk of ovarian torsion.CT and MRI examinations can provide a powerful reference for the clinical diagnosis of ovarian torsion in children.
5.Clinical Efficacy of Xiaoji Hufei Formula in Protecting Children with Close Contact Exposure to Influenza: A Multicenter,Prospective, Non-randomized, Parallel, Controlled Trial
Jing WANG ; Jianping LIU ; Tiegang LIU ; Hong WANG ; Yingxin FU ; Jing LI ; Huaqing TAN ; Yingqi XU ; Yanan MA ; Wei WANG ; Jia WANG ; Haipeng CHEN ; Yuanshuo TIAN ; Yang WANG ; Chen BAI ; Zhendong WANG ; Qianqian LI ; He YU ; Xueyan MA ; Fei DONG ; Liqun WU ; Xiaohong GU
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(21):223-230
ObjectiveTo evaluate the efficacy and safety of Xiaoji Hufei Formula in protecting children with close contact exposure to influenza, and to provide reference and evidence-based support for better clinical prevention and treatment of influenza in children. MethodsA multicenter, prospective, non-randomized, parallel, controlled trial was conducted from October 2021 to May 2022 in five hospitals, including Dongfang Hospital of Beijing University of Chinese Medicine. Confirmed influenza cases and influenza-like illness (ILI) cases were collected, and eligible children with close contact exposure to these cases were recruited in the outpatient clinics. According to whether the enrolled close contacts were willing to take Xiaoji Hufei formula for influenza prevention, they were assigned to the observation group (108 cases) or the control group (108 cases). Follow-up visits were conducted on days 7 and 14 after enrollment. The primary outcomes were the incidence of ILI and the rate of laboratory-confirmed influenza. Secondary outcomes included traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) symptom score scale for influenza, influenza-related emergency (outpatient) visit rate, influenza hospitalization rate, and time to onset after exposure to influenza cases. ResultsA total of 216 participants were enrolled, with 108 in the observation group and 108 in the control group. Primary outcomes: (1) Incidence of ILI: The incidence was 12.0% (13/108) in the observation group and 23.1% (25/108) in the control group, with the observation group showing a significantly lower incidence (χ2=4.6, P<0.05). (2) Influenza confirmation rate: 3.7% (4/108) in the observation group and 4.6% (5/108) in the control group, with no statistically significant difference. Secondary outcomes: (1) TCM symptom score scale: after onset, nasal congestion and runny nose scores differed significantly between the two groups (P<0.05), while other symptoms such as fever, sore throat, and cough showed no significant differences. (2) Influenza-related emergency (outpatient) visit rate: 84.6% (11 cases) in the observation group and 96.0% (24 cases) in the control group, with no significant difference. (3) Time to onset after exposure: The median onset time after exposure to index patients was 7 days in the observation group and 4 days in the control group, with a statistically significant difference (P<0.05). ConclusionIn previously healthy children exposed to infectious influenza cases under unprotected conditions, Xiaoji Hufei formula prophylaxis significantly reduced the incidence of ILI. Xiaoji Hufei Formula can be recommended as a specific preventive prescription for influenza in children.
6.Clinical Efficacy of Xiaoji Hufei Formula in Protecting Children with Close Contact Exposure to Influenza: A Multicenter,Prospective, Non-randomized, Parallel, Controlled Trial
Jing WANG ; Jianping LIU ; Tiegang LIU ; Hong WANG ; Yingxin FU ; Jing LI ; Huaqing TAN ; Yingqi XU ; Yanan MA ; Wei WANG ; Jia WANG ; Haipeng CHEN ; Yuanshuo TIAN ; Yang WANG ; Chen BAI ; Zhendong WANG ; Qianqian LI ; He YU ; Xueyan MA ; Fei DONG ; Liqun WU ; Xiaohong GU
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(21):223-230
ObjectiveTo evaluate the efficacy and safety of Xiaoji Hufei Formula in protecting children with close contact exposure to influenza, and to provide reference and evidence-based support for better clinical prevention and treatment of influenza in children. MethodsA multicenter, prospective, non-randomized, parallel, controlled trial was conducted from October 2021 to May 2022 in five hospitals, including Dongfang Hospital of Beijing University of Chinese Medicine. Confirmed influenza cases and influenza-like illness (ILI) cases were collected, and eligible children with close contact exposure to these cases were recruited in the outpatient clinics. According to whether the enrolled close contacts were willing to take Xiaoji Hufei formula for influenza prevention, they were assigned to the observation group (108 cases) or the control group (108 cases). Follow-up visits were conducted on days 7 and 14 after enrollment. The primary outcomes were the incidence of ILI and the rate of laboratory-confirmed influenza. Secondary outcomes included traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) symptom score scale for influenza, influenza-related emergency (outpatient) visit rate, influenza hospitalization rate, and time to onset after exposure to influenza cases. ResultsA total of 216 participants were enrolled, with 108 in the observation group and 108 in the control group. Primary outcomes: (1) Incidence of ILI: The incidence was 12.0% (13/108) in the observation group and 23.1% (25/108) in the control group, with the observation group showing a significantly lower incidence (χ2=4.6, P<0.05). (2) Influenza confirmation rate: 3.7% (4/108) in the observation group and 4.6% (5/108) in the control group, with no statistically significant difference. Secondary outcomes: (1) TCM symptom score scale: after onset, nasal congestion and runny nose scores differed significantly between the two groups (P<0.05), while other symptoms such as fever, sore throat, and cough showed no significant differences. (2) Influenza-related emergency (outpatient) visit rate: 84.6% (11 cases) in the observation group and 96.0% (24 cases) in the control group, with no significant difference. (3) Time to onset after exposure: The median onset time after exposure to index patients was 7 days in the observation group and 4 days in the control group, with a statistically significant difference (P<0.05). ConclusionIn previously healthy children exposed to infectious influenza cases under unprotected conditions, Xiaoji Hufei formula prophylaxis significantly reduced the incidence of ILI. Xiaoji Hufei Formula can be recommended as a specific preventive prescription for influenza in children.
7.Analysis of imaging signs of ovarian torsion in children
Hui MA ; Lihua DAI ; Yingfei WANG ; Jianjun LIN ; Qiuyun TANG ; Daxing XU
Journal of Practical Radiology 2025;41(2):285-288
Objective To summarize and analyze the CT or MRI imaging signs of ovarian torsion in children.Methods The CT or MRI data of 24 children surgically confirmed ovarian torsion were analyzed retrospectively,focusing on imaging signs such as ovarian position,size,the relationship with surrounding appendages and uterus.Results In this group of cases,8 cases underwent CT examination and 16 cases underwent MRI examination.Among the age of children,12 cases were in newborns,and 6 cases were in school-age and adolescent children respectively.It was more common in newborns and children aged 10-12 years old.Among the 24 patients,3 cases(12.5%)had primary ovarian torsion,all of which were adolescent children;21 cases(87.5%)had secondary ovarian torsion,with all torsions in the neonatal period were secondary ovarian torsion.Among secondary ovarian torsion,there were 7 cases(33.3%)of ovarian teratoma with torsion,12 cases(57.1%)of simple ovarian cysts,1 case(4.7%)of ovarian serous cystadenoma,and 1 case(4.7%)of ovarian mucinous cyst.Torsion occurred in 9 cases(37.5%)of the left ovary and 15 cases(62.5%)of the right ovary,with right ovarian torsion being more common.Imaging signs included varying degrees of enlargement of the ovaries on the ipsilateral side of the torsion,with 14 cases(58.3%)of ovarian masses had a maximum diameter≥5 cm,and 3-5 cm being more common in the neonatal period.There were 11 cases(45.8%)with the pedicle sign/vortex sign on the ipsilateral side of the torsion,9 cases(37.5%)with mass and hemorrhage,4 cases(16.7%)with mass displacement to the midline or uterine displacement to the ipsilateral side,and 3 cases(12.5%)of the ovarian follicle outward migration showed fruit bowl sign.Conclusion Secondary ovarian torsion is relatively common in children,with distinctive imaging manifestations.Especially when neonatal ovarian cysts show hemorrhagic signals should be alert to the risk of ovarian torsion.CT and MRI examinations can provide a powerful reference for the clinical diagnosis of ovarian torsion in children.
8.Machine learning prediction of the risk of secondary screw perforation after plate internal fixation for proximal humerus fractures
Daxing XU ; Zesong TU ; Muqiang JI ; Weipeng XU ; Wei NIU
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2025;29(15):3179-3187
BACKGROUND:Secondary screw perforation of the articular surface is one of the major complications after locking plate internal fixation of proximal humerus fracture,and cut-out screws can damage shoulder function by abrading the glenoid and causing impingement of the acromion.Therefore,accurate risk prediction has positive clinical significance.OBJECTIVE:To screen risk factors for secondary screw perforation after proximal humerus fracture plating by machine learning methods,and to develop and validate a risk prediction model that facilitates clinicians to identify and intervene in high-risk patients at an early stage.METHODS:Clinical data of 214 patients with proximal humerus fractures who underwent locking plate internal fixation from June 2013 to June 2022 were collected as a training group to establish the model,and 61 similar patients from another hospital in the same period were included in the external validation group.The patients were divided into secondary screw perforation and screw maintenance groups according to whether they developed secondary screw perforation after surgery.The training group used three machine learning algorithms,namely,random forest,support vector machine,and logistic regression,to construct the prediction model.The recursive feature elimination method was used,and 10-fold cross-validation resampling was used as the screening method for the variables,and the intersection of the variables that were included when the accuracy of the three models was the highest was taken as the highly correlated with the secondary screw perforation reliable risk variables.The dynamic predictive model was constructed by R language software and presented as a web calculator,and the model was internally and externally validated.The internal test of the model was conducted by the Bootstrap method with 1 000 resamples,and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve,the calibration curve,and the clinical decision curve were used to evaluate the differentiation,calibration ability,and clinical application value of the model.The Youden index was used to determine the optimal risk threshold of the prediction model,according to which the patients in the external validation group were divided into high-and low-risk groups,and the stability and extensibility of the model were evaluated according to the accuracy of its risk prediction ability.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)The machine learning algorithm identified four risk variables that were highly correlated with secondary screw perforation,namely cortical support of the proximal medial humeral column,deltoid tuberosity index,fracture type,and postoperative reduction.(2)The constructed risk prediction model showed good discrimination and accuracy[area under the curve=0.874,95%confidence interval(0.827,0.922)],and the calibration curve showed good agreement between the model predicted risk and the actual occurrence risk.(3)The clinical decision curve suggested that the model had good clinical applicability when the probability of the risk threshold was in the 0.1-0.75 range.(4)A risk probability of 26%was the optimal threshold for model risk stratification,and the external validation group used model risk stratification to predict secondary screw perforation with an overall accuracy rate of 84%.(5)The risk prediction model has good accuracy and extrapolation,and may provide a basis for guiding clinical treatment.
9.Construction of a risk prediction model for failure of proximal femoral nail antirotation fixation in intertrochanteric fractures
Zesong TU ; Daxing XU ; Hongbin LUO ; Yusheng WANG ; Xinglun FENG ; Zhonghua PENG ; Shaolong DU
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2025;29(27):5845-5853
BACKGROUND:Intertrochanteric femoral fractures are the main type of fragility fracture in the elderly,and proximal femoral nail antirotation is the preferred surgical option,but the factors associated with postoperative internal fixation failure are controversial.OBJECTIVE:A new"three-column"classification of intertrochanteric femoral fractures was proposed by evaluating patients'imaging data preoperatively and analyzing its interaction with postoperative internal fixation failure.A risk prediction model was developed and validated by using numerical algorithms,which facilitates clinicians to identify and intervene in high-risk patients preoperatively.METHODS:Patients with intertrochanteric femur fractures in Sanshui Branch of Foshan Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine between June 2012 and June 2022 were selected.The patients were divided into the internal fixation failure group and the internal fixation maintenance group according to whether they had internal fixation failure after surgery.According to the preoperative radiographs,the proximal femur was divided into three columns:the medial column,the lateral column,and the middle column.Each column had different subgroups.The relationship between the morphological characteristics of the"three columns"and the failure of proximal femoral nail antirotation internal fixation was analyzed,and the independent risk factors for internal fixation failure were screened out by single and then multifactorial logistic regression analyses.A risk prediction model was constructed according to the independent risk factors using R language software.The Bootstrap method was used to resample 1 000 times.The area under the curve,calibration curve,and clinical decision curve were used to evaluate the differentiation,calibration ability,and clinical application value of the model.The Youden index was used to determine the optimal risk cut-off value of the prediction model,according to which the patients were divided into high and low risk groups.The stability and extensibility of the model were evaluated according to the accuracy of its risk prediction ability.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)The four independent risk factors for postoperative internal fixation failure after surgery were predicted using the"three-column"typing system:medial column(comminuted fracture of the lesser trochanter and femoral talar)[odds ratio=5.385,95%CI(1.961,14.782),P=0.001],medial column(chimney type)[odds ratio=2.893,95%CI(1.167,7.173),P=0.022],lateral column(lateral wall thickness<20.5 mm)[odds ratio=2.804,95%CI(1.078,7.297),P=0.035]and lateral column(lateral wall fracture)[odds ratio=4.278,95%CI(1.670,10.959),P=0.012].(2)The constructed risk prediction model showed good discrimination and accuracy[area under the receiver operating characteristic curve=0.852,95%CI(0.837,0.922)].The calibration curve showed good agreement between the model-predicted risk and the actual risk of occurrence.(3)The clinical decision curve suggested that the model had good clinical applicability when the risk threshold probability was in the range of 0.2-0.82.The risk probability of 28%was the optimal threshold for risk stratification of the model,and the predictive performance of the model was better in patients with different risk groups.(4)The"three-column"typing system constructs a predictive model to calculate the risk probability of postoperative internal fixation failure in patients with intertrochanteric femoral fractures.This method is accurate,simple,and easy to apply clinically,and can be used as a digital tool to guide personalized clinical treatment.
10.Constructing a risk prediction model for failure after locking plate fixation for proximal humeral fractures in the elderly by combining the deltoid tuberosity index with preoperative factors
Daxing XU ; Muqiang JI ; Zesong TU ; Weipeng XU ; Weilong XU ; Wei NIU
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2024;28(21):3299-3305
BACKGROUND:Proximal humeral fracture in older adults is one of the three major osteoporotic fractures.Anatomic locking plate fixation is the first choice for most scholars to treat difficult-to-reduce and complex fracture types.However,the probability of reduction failure after the operation is high,which seriously affects patients'quality of life. OBJECTIVE:To investigate the correlation between deltoid tuberosity index and postoperative reduction failure of proximal humeral fractures in the elderly,analyze and filter preoperative independent risk factors for reduction failure of proximal humeral fractures in the elderly,and construct and verify the effectiveness of a clinical prediction model. METHODS:The clinical data of 153 elderly patients with proximal humeral fractures who met the diagnosis and inclusion criteria and received open reduction and locking plate surgery in Foshan Hospital of TCM from June 2012 to June 2021 were collected.The patients were divided into the reduction failure subgroup and the reduction maintenance subgroup.The independent risk factors were selected by multivariate Logistic regression analysis,and the nomogram was constructed by R language.After 1000 times of resampling by Bootstrap method,the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit correlation test,receiver operating characteristic curve,calibration curve,clinical decision,and influence curve were plotted to evaluate its goodness of fit,discrimination,calibration ability,and clinical application value.Fifty-five elderly patients with proximal humeral fractures from June 2013 to August 2021 were selected as the model's external validation group to evaluate the prediction model's stability and accuracy. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)Of the 153 patients in the training group,44 patients met reduction failure after internal plate fixation.The prevalence of postoperative reduction failure was 28.8%.Multivariate Logistic regression analysis identified that deltoid tuberosity index[OR=9.782,95%CI(3.798,25.194)],varus displacement[OR=4.209,95%CI(1.472,12.031)],and medial metaphyseal comminution[OR=4.278,95%CI(1.670,10.959)]were independent risk factors for postoperative reduction failure of proximal humeral fractures in older adults(P<0.05).(2)A nomogram based on independent risk factors was then constructed.The Hosmer-Lemeshow test results for the model of the training group showed that χ2=0.812(P=0.976)and area under curve=0.830[95%CI(0.762,0.898)].The calibration plot results showed that the model's predicted risk was in good agreement with the actual risk.The decision and clinical influence curves showed good clinical applicability.(3)In the validation group,the accuracy rate in practical applications was 86%,area under curve=0.902[95%CI(0.819,0.985)].(4)It is concluded that deltoid tuberosity index<1.44,medial metaphyseal comminution,and varus displacement were independent risk factors for reduction failure.(5)The internal and external validation of the risk prediction model demonstrated high discrimination,accuracy,and clinical applicability could be used to individually predict and screen the high-risk population of postoperative reduction failure of proximal humeral fractures in the elderly.The predicted number of patients at high risk is highly matched to the actual number of patients who occur when the model's threshold risk probability is above 65%,and clinicians should use targeted treatment.

Result Analysis
Print
Save
E-mail