2.Development and validation of a prognostic prediction model for patients with stage Ⅰ to Ⅲ colon cancer incorporating high-risk pathological features.
K X LI ; Q B WU ; F Q ZHAO ; J L ZHANG ; S L LUO ; S D HU ; B WU ; H L LI ; G L LIN ; H Z QIU ; J Y LU ; L XU ; Z WANG ; X H DU ; L KANG ; X WANG ; Z Q WANG ; Q LIU ; Y XIAO
Chinese Journal of Surgery 2023;61(9):753-759
Objective: To examine a predictive model that incorporating high risk pathological factors for the prognosis of stage Ⅰ to Ⅲ colon cancer. Methods: This study retrospectively collected clinicopathological information and survival outcomes of stage Ⅰ~Ⅲ colon cancer patients who underwent curative surgery in 7 tertiary hospitals in China from January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2017. A total of 1 650 patients were enrolled, aged (M(IQR)) 62 (18) years (range: 14 to 100). There were 963 males and 687 females. The median follow-up period was 51 months. The Cox proportional hazardous regression model was utilized to select high-risk pathological factors, establish the nomogram and scoring system. The Bootstrap resampling method was utilized for internal validation of the model, the concordance index (C-index) was used to assess discrimination and calibration curves were presented to assess model calibration. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to plot survival curves after risk grouping, and Cox regression was used to compare disease-free survival between subgroups. Results: Age (HR=1.020, 95%CI: 1.008 to 1.033, P=0.001), T stage (T3:HR=1.995,95%CI:1.062 to 3.750,P=0.032;T4:HR=4.196, 95%CI: 2.188 to 8.045, P<0.01), N stage (N1: HR=1.834, 95%CI: 1.307 to 2.574, P<0.01; N2: HR=3.970, 95%CI: 2.724 to 5.787, P<0.01) and number of lymph nodes examined (≥36: HR=0.438, 95%CI: 0.242 to 0.790, P=0.006) were independently associated with disease-free survival. The C-index of the scoring model (model 1) based on age, T stage, N stage, and dichotomous variables of the lymph nodes examined (<12 and ≥12) was 0.723, and the C-index of the scoring model (model 2) based on age, T stage, N stage, and multi-categorical variables of the lymph nodes examined (<12, 12 to <24, 24 to <36, and ≥36) was 0.726. A scoring system was established based on age, T stage, N stage, and multi-categorical variables of lymph nodes examined, the 3-year DFS of the low-risk (≤1), middle-risk (2 to 4) and high-risk (≥5) group were 96.3% (n=711), 89.0% (n=626) and 71.4% (n=313), respectively. Statistically significant difference was observed among groups (P<0.01). Conclusions: The number of lymph nodes examined was an independent prognostic factor for disease-free survival after curative surgery in patients with stage Ⅰ to Ⅲ colon cancer. Incorporating the number of lymph nodes examined as a multi-categorical variable into the T and N staging system could improve prognostic predictive validity.
Male
;
Female
;
Humans
;
Prognosis
;
Neoplasm Staging
;
Retrospective Studies
;
Nomograms
;
Lymph Nodes/pathology*
;
Risk Factors
;
Colonic Neoplasms/surgery*
3.Predictive value of MRI pelvic measurements for "difficult pelvis" during total mesorectal excision.
Z SUN ; W Y HOU ; J J LIU ; H D XUE ; P R XU ; B WU ; G L LIN ; L XU ; J Y LU ; Y XIAO
Chinese Journal of Gastrointestinal Surgery 2022;25(12):1089-1097
Objective: Total mesorectal resection (TME) is difficult to perform for rectal cancer patients with anatomical confines of the pelvis or thick mesorectal fat. This study aimed to evaluate the ability of pelvic dimensions to predict the difficulty of TME, and establish a nomogram for predicting its difficulty. Methods: The inclusion criteria for this retrospective study were as follows: (1) tumor within 15 cm of the anal verge; (2) rectal cancer confirmed by preoperative pathological examination; (3) adequate preoperative MRI data; (4) depth of tumor invasion T1-4a; and (5) grade of surgical difficulty available. Patients who had undergone non-TME surgery were excluded. A total of 88 patients with rectal cancer who underwent TME between March 2019 and November 2021 were eligible for this study. The system for scaling difficulty was as follows: Grade I, easy procedure, no difficulties; Grade II, difficult procedure, but no impact on specimen quality (complete TME); Grade III, difficult procedure, with a slight impact on specimen quality (near-complete TME); Grade IV: very difficult procedure, with remarkable impact on specimen quality (incomplete TME). We classified Grades I-II as no surgical difficulty and grades III-IV as surgical difficulty. Pelvic parameters included pelvic inlet length, anteroposterior length of the mid-pelvis, pelvic outlet length, pubic tubercle height, sacral length, sacral depth, distance from the pubis to the pelvic floor, anterior pelvic depth, interspinous distance, and inter-tuberosity distance. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify the factors associated with the difficulty of TME, and a nomogram predicting the difficulty of the procedure was established. Results: The study cohort comprised 88 patients, 30 (34.1%) of whom were classified as having undergone difficult procedures and 58 (65.9%) non-difficult procedures. The median age was 64 years (56-70), 51 patients were male and 64 received neoadjuvant therapy. The median pelvic inlet length, anteroposterior length of the mid-pelvis, pelvic outlet length, pubic tubercle height, sacral length, sacral depth, distance from the pubis to the pelvic floor, anterior pelvic depth, interspinous distance, and inter-tuberosity distance were 12.0 cm, 11.0 cm, 8.6 cm, 4.9 cm, 12.6 cm, 3.7 cm, 3.0 cm, 13.3 cm, 10.2 cm, and 12.2 cm, respectively. Multivariable analyses showed that preoperative chemoradiotherapy (OR=4.97,95% CI: 1.25-19.71, P=0.023), distance between the tumor and the anal verge (OR=1.31, 95% CI: 1.02-1.67, P=0.035) and pubic tubercle height (OR=3.36, 95% CI: 1.56-7.25, P=0.002) were associated with surgical difficulty. We then built and validated a predictive nomogram based on the above three variables (AUC = 0.795, 95%CI: 0.696-0.895). Conclusion: Our research demonstrated that our system for scaling surgical difficulty of TME is useful and practical. Preoperative chemoradiotherapy, distance between tumor and anal verge, and pubic tubercle height are risk factors for surgical difficulty. These data may aid surgeons in planning appropriate surgical procedures.
Humans
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Male
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Middle Aged
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Female
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Retrospective Studies
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Laparoscopy/methods*
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Pelvis/pathology*
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Rectal Neoplasms/pathology*
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Magnetic Resonance Imaging
;
Treatment Outcome
7.Human leukocyte antigen polymorphism of HIV infected persons without disease progress for long-term in Henan province, 2011-2016.
X J XUE ; J Z YAN ; D CHENG ; C H LIU ; J LIU ; Z LIU ; S A TIAN ; D Y SUN ; B W ZHANG ; Z WANG
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2019;40(1):89-92
Objective: To understand the disease progression and human leukocyte antigen (HLA) gene polymorphism of HIV-infected persons without disease progress for long term, also known as long-term non-progressors (LTNPs), in Henan province. Methods: A retrospective study was conducted in 48 LTNPs with complete detection and follow-up information during 2011-2016 in Henan. Changes of CD(4)(+)T cells counts (CD(4)) and viral load (VL) during follow-up period were discussed. Polymerase chain reaction-sequence-specific oligonucleotide probe (PCR-SSOP) was used for the analyses of HLA-A, HLA-B and HLA-DRB1 alleles between LTNPs and healthy controls. Results: From 2011 to 2016, forty-eight LTNPs showed a decrease of the quartile (P(25)-P(75)) of CD(4) from 601.00 (488.50-708.72)/μl to 494.00 (367.00-672.00)/μl, and the difference was significant (P<0.05). The increase of the quartile (P(25)-P(75)) of log(10)VL from 3.40 (2.87-3.97) to 3.48 (2.60-4.37), but the difference was not significant (P>0.05). HLA polymorphism analysis revealed that HLA-B*13:02 and HLA-B*40:06 were more common in LTNPs (P<0.05), while HLA-B*46:01 and HLA-DRB1*09:01 were more common in healthy controls (P<0.05). Conclusions: The CD(4) of LTNPs in Henan showed a downward trend year by year. HLA-B*13:02 and B*40:06 might be associated with delayed disease progression for HIV infected persons in Henan.
Adult
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Alleles
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Asian People/genetics*
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China
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Disease Progression
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Female
;
HIV
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HIV Infections/virology*
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HIV-1/immunology*
;
HLA-B Antigens/genetics*
;
Humans
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Middle Aged
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Polymorphism, Genetic
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Retrospective Studies
;
Viral Load
8.Trends in 30-day case fatality rate in patients hospitalized due to acute myocardial infarction in Beijing, 2007-2012.
J Y SUN ; Q ZHANG ; D ZHAO ; M WANG ; S GAO ; X Y HAN ; J LIU
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2018;39(3):363-367
Objective: To understand the distribution and trends in 30-day coronary heart disease (CHD) case fatality rate in patients hospitalized due to acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in Beijing during 2007-2012. Methods: The clinical data of patients hospitalized due to AMI in Beijing from 1 January 2007 to 31 December 2012 were collected from "The Cardiovascular Disease Surveillance System in Beijing" . A total of 77 943 local patients aged ≥25 years were hospitalized due to AMI in Beijing during the this period. After excluding duplicate records and validation for the completeness and accuracy of the records, the clinical characteristics of the patients and 30-day CHD case fatality rate in the patients were analyzed. Trends in 30-day CHD case fatality rate in the patients were analyzed with Poisson regression models. Results: The age-standardized average 30-day CHD case fatality rate was 9.7% in the 77 943 patients. During this period, a decreasing trend was observed in 30-day CHD case fatality rate after adjusting for age and gender (P<0.001). The age-standardized 30-day CHD case fatality rate decreased by 16.0%, from 10.8% in 2007 to 9.0% in 2012. The decreases of 30-day CHD case fatality rates were noted in both men and women, whereas 30-day CHD case fatality rate was higher in women (14.1%) than in men (7.6%) after adjusting for age. During this period, the proportion of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) decreased, while the proportion of non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) increased with year. A significant decline (20.1%) in 30-day case fatality rate of STEMI was found, but no decline was found for 30-day mortality rate of NSTEMI. Conclusion: A decreasing trend in 30-day CHD case fatality rate was observed in the patients aged ≥25 years and hospitalized due to AMI in Beijing during 2007-2012, indicating the improvement in short-term prognosis of patients hospitalized due to AMI. Our findings highlight the urgent need to improve the treatment for woman and NSTEMI patients.
Acute Disease
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Adult
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Aged
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Aged, 80 and over
;
Beijing/epidemiology*
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Coronary Disease/mortality*
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Female
;
Hospital Mortality
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Hospitalization/trends*
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Humans
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Male
;
Middle Aged
;
Myocardial Infarction/mortality*
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Prognosis
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Survival Analysis
;
Time Factors
9.Prevalence and trends of overweight and obesity in children and adolescents from 2013 to 2017 in Shenzhen.
Y Y LI ; Y WANG ; D Y CHEN ; Y WU ; L ZHOU
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2018;39(6):728-731
Objective: To examine the status and trends of overweight and obesity in children and adolescents aged 6-17 in Shenzhen between 2013 and 2017. Methods: Six primary schools, three junior high schools and three high schools were selected in Shenzhen from 2013 to 2017, through stratified cluster sampling method. Height and weight of the selected students were measured. Results: In total, 94 868 students were monitored from 2013 to 2017. The average prevalence rates of overweight and obesity were 13.31% and 9.60%, respectively. The prevalence rates of overweight and obesity appeared higher in boys (17.60% and 12.43%) than those in girls (10.27% and 5.93%). The prevalence of overweight was higher than obesity. Both prevalence rates of overweight and obesity were declining over the past five years. The maximal prevalence rates of overweight of boys and girls were from 10 to 12 and 13 to 15 years of age, while the obesity was from 6 to 9 years old, respectively. Conclusion: The prevalence rates of overweight and obesity were on the decline from 2013 to 2017, however, attention should be paid to the obesity problem in students.
Adolescent
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Body Mass Index
;
Body Weight
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Child
;
China/epidemiology*
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Female
;
Humans
;
Male
;
Obesity/ethnology*
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Overweight/ethnology*
;
Prevalence
;
Schools
;
Students
10.Spatial-temporal analysis on pulmonary tuberculosis in Beijing during 2005-2015.
S H SUN ; Z D GAO ; F ZHAO ; W Y ZHANG ; X ZHAO ; Y Y LI ; Y M LI ; F HONG ; X X HE ; S Y ZHAN
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2018;39(6):816-820
Objective: To analyze the spatial distribution and identify the high risk areas of pulmonary tuberculosis at the township level in Beijing during 2005-2015. Methods: Data on pulmonary tuberculosis cases was collected from the tuberculosis information management system. Global autocorrelation analysis, local indicators of spatial association and Kulldorff's Scan Statistics were applied to map the spatial distribution and detect the space-time clusters of the pulmonary tuberculosis cases during 2005-2015. Results: Spatial analysis on the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis at the township level demonstrated that the spatial autocorrelation was positive during the study period. The values of Moran's I ranged from 0.224 3 to 0.291 8 with all the P values less than 0.05. Hotspots were primarily distributed in 8 towns/streets as follows: Junzhuang, Wangping, Yongding and Tanzhesi in Mentougou district, Yancun in Fangshan district, Wangzuo town in Fengtai district, Tianqiao street in Xicheng district and Tianzhu town in Shunyi district. Spatiotemporal clusters across the entire study period were identified by using Kulldorff's spatiotemporal scan statistic. The primary cluster was located in Chaoyang and Shunyi districts, including 17 towns/streets, as follows: Cuigezhuang, Maizidian, Dongfeng, Taiyanggong, Zuojiazhuang, Hepingjie, Xiaoguan, Xiangheyuan, Dongba, Jiangtai, Wangjing, Jinzhan, Jiuxianqiao, Laiguangying, Sunhe towns/streets in Chaoyang district, Houshayu and Tianzhu town in Shunyi district, during January to December 2005. Conclusion: Incidence rates of pulmonary tuberculosis displayed spatial and temporal clusterings at the township level in Beijing during 2005-2015, with high risk areas relatively concentrated in the central and southern parts of Beijing.
Beijing
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China
;
Cluster Analysis
;
Humans
;
Incidence
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Spatial Analysis
;
Spatio-Temporal Analysis
;
Tuberculosis
;
Tuberculosis, Pulmonary/ethnology*

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