Objective:To construct a prediction model for the emergency volume of the psychiatric hospital, and analyze the changes of psychiatric emergency visits, so as to provide references for optimizing the allocation of emergency service resources.Methods:This study extracted data of the visit time of emergency patients, etc from the information system of a certain psychiatric hospital from 2018 to 2023. The monthly emergency visits (emergency volume) from 2018 to 2022 were used to construct the autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA), and the monthly emergency volume from 2023 was used to validate the predictive performance of the model.Results:After model construction and screening, seasonal ARIMA (0, 1, 0) (1, 1, 1) 12 was determined as the optimal model. The predicted values of the model were in good agreement with the actual values, with an average relative error fluctuation of 1.6% to 26.8% and an average absolute error fluctuation of 9 to 159 person-time. Conclusions:The seasonal ARIMA model could accurately predict the emergency volume of a certain psychiatric hospital and provide references for human resource allocation and emergency response. However, this prediction model was suitable for short-term forecasting. If long-term forecasting was needed, continuous data fitting was necessary to ensure the effectiveness of the prediction.

Objective To investigate the value of serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) in advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR)-tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI).Methods Pretreatment LDH level,pathological characteristic,tumor staging and treatment situation of 190 advanced NSCLC patients with EGFR sensitive mutation confirmed by pathology were retrospectively collected in Zhuhai People's Hospital of Guangdong Provice from July 2011 to July 2015.All the patients were divided into LDH normal group (LDH ≤252 U/L,n =78) and elevated group (LDH ＞ 252 U/L,n =112) according to pretreatment LDH level.Inaging evaluations of the patients were performed regularly,and the progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were recorded.The survival curves were plotted by Kaplan-Meier method and survival difference between patients with different LDH level was compared by logrank test.Cox regression analysis was used to analyze prognostic factors for mortality.Results The objective response rate of the LDH normal group was 76.9％ (60/78),and the elevated group was 71.4％ (80/112),with no statistically significant difference (x2 =0.716,P =0.398).The disease control rate of the LDH normal group was 89.7％ (70/78),and the elevated group was 85.7％ (96/112),with no statistically significant difference (x2 =0.676,P =0.411).The median PFS of the LDH normal group was 11.5 months,and the elevated group was 9.7 months (x2 =5.92,P =0.015).The median OS was 31.0 months in the LDH normal group,and 26.1 months in the elevated LDH group (x2 =4.79,P =0.029).Both PFS and OS of patients with elevated LDH were shorter than those of patients with normal LDH.Cox multivariate regression analysis showed that tumor staging (HR =1.652,95％ CI:1.386-2.259,P =0.018),PS score (HR =2.248,95％ CI:1.507-3.846,P ＜ 0.001),carcino-embryonic antigen (CEA) level (HR =1.250,95％ CI:1.066-1.703,P =0.037) and LDH level (HR =1.771,95 ％ CI:1.324-1.947,P =0.015) were independent prognostic factors in patients with advanced NSCLC.Conclusion Pretreatment serum LDH can not affect the objective response rate and disease control rate of EGFR-TKI in the treatment of advanced NSCLC,but can affect the PFS and OS of patients.Pretreatment serum LDH is an independent prognostic factor.

Objective To assess the clinical value of multi-slice CT(MSCT)in showing the ear lesions.Methods MSCT high resolution scan images of 52 ears of 11 normal adult and 15 patients with hearing loss were reconstructed,by bone plus with 0.625 mm collimation,9.6 cm small field of vision(FOV)and 0.3 mm reconstruction interval before volume rendering(VR)and multiplanar reformation(MPR)were performed.Results VR,MIP and MPR images of 40 normal ears clearly showed the complicated anatomic structures.VR,MIP and MPR images of twelve abnormal ears displayed 3 ears of malformations of crus longum incudis,1 ear of destructed semicircular canals,2 ears of malleus dysplasia,2 ears of fusion of incudostapedial joint,2 ears of bony atresia of external auditory complicated with auditory ossicles dysplasia,and 2 ears of crus stapedis dysplasia.MPR is easier to manipulate than VR that has three dimensional effect butis difficult to handle.Conclusion HRCT images,combined with post-processing technique of VR,MIP and MPR,can clearly show the anatomic structures and lesions of middle and inner ears.

Objective To explore the imaging method and the value of clinical application of spiral CT virtual endoscopy(CTVE)to stomach.Methods After 36 patients took the aerosis agent or 5% contrast medium,virtual endoscopic images were obtained by using GE-Navigator smooth image model and multiplanar reconstruction.Results Two types of contrasts complemented each other.Normal gastric structure,stenosis and obstruction were clearly visualized in 36 patients.Conclusion CTVE can provide a noninvasive diagnostic method,supplemented to fiberoptic endoscopy,but its sensitivity and specificity should be improved.

Objective:To study the effect of interleukin-18 on transdifferentiation in renal tubular epithelial cells(TECs).Methods:Human proximal tubular epithelial cell line(HK-2) was cultured in vitro.TECs were exposed to different concentrations(0,0.1,1,10 and 100 ng/ml) of IL-18 for 24,48 and 72 hours.At the end of each incubation,the expressions of the ?-SMA and TGF-?_1 mRNA were assessed by RT-PCR,the rate of ?-SMA expressing TECs was assessed by immunocytochemistry,and the expression of the ?-SMA protein was assessed by Western blotting.Results:(1)The expressions of ?-SMA and TGF-?_1 mRNA were increased significantly by a dose- and time-dependent manner when TECs were exposed to IL-18(P