BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that in 2015, approximately 325 million or 4.4% of the global population were living with chronic hepatitis B or hepatitis C infection. In the same year, around 1.34 million died from this disease.

This study aimed to estimate the burden of hepatitis B in the Philippines and to determine the costeffectiveness of possible interventions.

This study utilized the Center for Disease Analysis Foundation’s (CDAF’s) mathematical disease burden model of hepatitis B. Model inputs were collected using literature review, key informant interviews, expert panel interviews, and records review, and were validated through a series of round table discussions with experts.

Results show that in 2017, the prevalence of chronic hepatitis B infection in the Philippines was 9.7%, equivalent to 10 million infected individuals. Although the model projects a decreasing trend in chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infections, liver-related mortality and morbidity due to these viruses are expected to rise if the status quo is maintained. Results show that substantial increase in government subsidy for WHO elimination scenarios would be required to achieve cost-effective outcomes.

Hepatitis B remains a huge problem in the Philippines. The HBV modelling exercise reveal that it will be worthwhile and cost-effective to adhere to the WHO elimination targets. A substantial financial investment will be necessary to do so, specifically a significant scale up in the screening, diagnosis, treatment, and monitoring of patients with HBV. While this modelling exercise does not yield burden of disease as accurate as a prevalence survey, experts consulted in the round table discussions agreed with the modelling inputs.

BACKGROUND: Stroke is the leading cause of death in China, and predicting the stroke burden could provide essential information guiding the setting of medium- and long-term health policies and priorities. The study aimed to project trends associated with stroke burden in China through 2050, not only in terms of incidence and mortality but also for prevalence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). METHODS: Data on stroke rates in incidence, prevalence, deaths, and DALYs in China between 1990 and 2019 were obtained from a recent Global Burden of Disease study. Demographic-specific trends in rates over time were estimated using three models: the loglinear model, the Lee-Carter model, and a functional time series model. The mean absolute percentage error and the root mean squared error were used for model selection. Projections up to 2050 were estimated using the best fitting model. United Nations population data were used to project the absolute numbers through 2050. RESULTS: From 2019 to 2050, the crude rates for all measures of the stroke burden are projected to increase continuously among both men and women. We project that compared with those in 2019, the incidence, prevalence, deaths, and DALYs because of stroke in China in 2050 will increase by 55.58%, 119.16%, 72.15%, and 20.04%, respectively; the corresponding increases in number were 2.19, 34.27, 1.58, and 9.21 million. The age-standardized rate is projected to substantially decline for incidence (8.94%), death (40.37%), and DALYs (43.47%), but the age-standardized prevalence rate is predicted to increase by 10.82%. By 2050, the burden of stroke among the population aged ≥65 years will increase significantly: by 104.70% for incidence, by 218.48% for prevalence, by 100.00% for death, and by 58.93% for DALYs. CONCLUSIONS With the aging population in China increasing over the next three decades, the burden of stroke will be markedly increased. Continuous efforts are needed to improve stroke health care and secondary prevention, especially for older adults.
Male ; Humans ; Female ; Aged ; Cost of Illness ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Stroke/epidemiology* ; Incidence ; Prevalence ; China/epidemiology*

OBJECTIVES: Congenital birth defects are the main source of disease burden among children under 5 years old in China. This study aims to compare the trends in disease burden of different congenital birth defects among Chinese children under 5 years old from 1990 to 2019, and to provide a scientific basis for strengthening the comprehensive prevention and control of birth defects. METHODS: Based on data from the Global Burden Disease (GBD) in 2019, the incidence mortality rate, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate of congenital birth defects among Chinese children under 5 years old from 1990 to 2019 were selected as evaluation indicators. The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trends in disease burden of different types with congenital birth defects over three decades. The study also compared the differences in disease burden of congenital birth defects among children under 5 years old by gender. RESULTS: Compared to 1990, the DALYs rates of congenital heart anomalies (1 931.91/100 000), digestive congenital anomalies (364.63/100 000), neural tube defects (277.20/100 000), congenital musculoskeletal and limb anomalies (133.33/100 000), and Down syndrome (128.22/100 000) in children under 5 years old in China in 2019 were decreased 70.78%, 71.61%, 86.21%, 36.84% and 73.65%, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, the mortality rates and DALYs rates of different congenital birth defects showed an overall downward trend, but the incidence of digestive congenital anomalies and Down syndrome showed an upward trend after 2005 and 2001, respectively. Except for congenital musculoskeletal and limb anomalies, incidence of the remaining categories of birth defects were higher in boys than that in girls. CONCLUSIONS The disease burden of congenital birth defects in children under 5 years old in China is decreased substantially from 1990 to 2019, but the burden of congenital heart anomalies is still serious and the incidence of some birth defect diseases is on the rise, and it is still crucial to strengthen the prevention and treatment for birth defects in children and propose targeted measures according to their gender characteristics.
Child, Preschool ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; China/epidemiology* ; Cost of Illness ; Down Syndrome/epidemiology* ; East Asian People ; Congenital Abnormalities/epidemiology*

Objective: To analyze the direct economic burden caused by measles cases in Shanghai from 2017 to 2019 and its influencing factors. Methods: A total of 161 laboratory-confirmed measles cases reported from January 1, 2017, to December 31, 2019, in Shanghai were included in the study through the "Measles Surveillance Information Reporting and Management System" of the "China Disease Surveillance Information Reporting and Management System". Through telephone follow-up and consulting hospital data, the basic information of population, medical treatment situation, medical treatment costs and other information were collected, and the direct economic burden of cases was calculated, including registration fees, examination fees, hospitalization fees, medical fees and other disease treatment expenses, as well as transportation and other expenses of cases. The multiple linear regression model was used to analyze the main influencing factors of the direct economic burden. Results: The age of 161 measles cases M (Q₁, Q₃) was 28.21 (13.33, 37.00) years. Male cases (56.52%) were more than female cases (43.48%). The largest number of cases was≥18 years old (70.81%). The total direct economic burden of 161 measles cases was 540 851.14 yuan, and the per capita direct economic burden was 3 359.32 yuan. The direct economic burden M (Q₁, Q₃) was 873.00 (245.01, 4 014.79) yuan per person. The results of multiple linear regression model analysis showed that compared with other and unknown occupations, central areas and non-hospitalized cases, the direct economic burden of measles cases was higher in scattered children, childcare children, students, and cadre staff in the occupational distribution, suburban areas and hospitalized, with the coefficient of β (95%CI) values of 0.388 (0.150-0.627), 0.297 (0.025-0.569), 0.327 (0.148-0.506) and 1.031 (0.853-1.209), respectively (all P values<0.05). Conclusion: The direct economic burden of some measles cases in Shanghai is relatively high. Occupation, area of residence and hospitalization are the main factors influencing the direct economic burden of measles cases.
Child ; Humans ; Male ; Female ; Adolescent ; Financial Stress ; Cost of Illness ; China/epidemiology* ; Health Care Costs ; Measles/epidemiology*

Objective: To forecast mortality, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes, and to simulate the impact of controlling risk factors by 2030 in China. Methods: We simulated the burden of disease from diabetes in six scenarios according to the development goals of risk factors control by the WHO and Chinese government. Based on the theory of comparative risk assessment and the estimates of the burden of disease for China from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015, we used the proportional change model to project the number of deaths, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes under different scenarios of risk factors control in 2030. Results: If the trends in exposures to risk factors from 1990 to 2015 continued. Mortality, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes would increase to 32.57/100 000, 17.32/100 000, and 0.84% by 2030, respectively. During that time, mortality, age-standardized mortality and probability of premature mortality for males would all be higher than for females. If the goals of controlling risk factors were all achieved, the number of deaths from diabetes in 2030 would decrease by 62.10% compared to the predicted numbers based on the historical trends in exposure to risk factors, and the probability of premature mortality would drop to 0.29%. If only the exposure to a single risk factor were achieved by 2030, high fasting plasma glucose control would have the greatest impact on diabetes, resulting in a 56.00% reduction in deaths compared to the predicted numbers based on the historical trends, followed by high BMI (4.92%), smoking (0.65%), and low physical activity (0.53%). Conclusions: Risk factors control plays an important role in reducing the number of deaths, age-standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes. We suggest taking comprehensive measures to control relevant risk factors for certain populations and regions, to achieve the goal of reducing the burden of disease from diabetes as expected.
Male ; Female ; Humans ; Risk Factors ; Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiology* ; Mortality, Premature ; Smoking ; Cost of Illness ; China/epidemiology* ; Global Burden of Disease

Health damage including chronic disease caused by air pollution have attracted increasing attention. With the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization, the emission of air pollutants has increased, and its association with chronic diseases has become a research trending topic. Cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes, and chronic respiratory disease are the major chronic diseases, causing about 86.6% of the total deaths in China. The prevention and control of chronic diseases, especially the etiologic prevention, is a major public health issue related to national health. This article summarizes the recent progress in research of association of indoor and outdoor air pollution with all-cause mortality, the deaths and disease burden of four major chronic diseases, i.e. cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes, and chronic respiratory disease, and puts forward suggestions for the reduction of the burden caused by chronic diseases due to air pollution to provide a theoretical foundation to revise air quality standards in China.
Humans ; Cardiovascular Diseases ; Air Pollution ; China ; Cost of Illness ; Chronic Disease ; Respiratory Tract Diseases

Objective: To analyze the burden of disease attributable to high temperature exposure in China and globally from 1990 to 2019, and to study the current burden of disease in relevant populations. Methods: In October 2021, based on data from the global burden of disease 2019 (GBD 2019) study, population attributable fraction (PAF), number of deaths, mortality, disability-adjusted life year (DALY) and DALY rate of Chinese and global populations with different ages and genders in 1990 and 2019 were extracted and analyzed. The rate of change was calculated, the mortality rate was normalized by the age structure of the world standard population, and the causes of disease burden caused by high temperature exposure of Chinese residents were analyzed. Results: In 2019, compared with 1990, the PAF of Chinese and global population decreased by 43.98% and 12.41% respectively, the number of deaths increased by 29.55% and 49.40% respectively, the crude mortality rate increased by 7.81% and 3.30% respectively, the DALY decreased by 48.12% and 14.41% respectively, and the DALY rate decreased by 56.82% and 40.82% respectively. The mortality rate of the ≥70 age group was higher than that of other groups. The disease burden indicators such as PAF, standardized mortality and DALY attributable to high temperature exposure in men were higher than those in women. In 2019, the main cause of DALY affected by high temperature exposure in Chinese population was ischemic heart disease (84400 person-years), and the main cause of death was ischemic heart disease (4900 cases). Conclusion: The burden of diseases attributable to high temperature exposure is still serious in China and the world at large. Targeted interventions should be formulated for men, the elderly and people with occupational exposure, and a sound surveillance system should be established to reduce the burden of diseases caused by high temperature exposure.
Humans ; Male ; Female ; Aged ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Temperature ; Cost of Illness ; China/epidemiology* ; Myocardial Ischemia

Objective: Through comparative analysis of the disease burden of occupational pneumoconiosis in Gansu Province from 2010 to 2020, the main influencing factors are screened, and scientific basis is provided for rational allocation of limited health resources, precise management and policy implementation. Methods: In August 2021, survey and collect information on surviving occupational pneumoconiosis patients and dead occupational pneumoconiosis patients diagnosed in Gansu Province from 2010 to 2020, and analyze and calculate indicators such as morbidity, mortality, and disability adjusted of life years (DALY). Analyzing the influencing factors of disease burden usirrg multiple linear regression. Results: From 2010 to 2020, the average annual incidence of occupational pneumoconiosis in Gansu Province was 0.9992/100000, the average annual mortality was 0.897/100000, the cumulative case fatality rate was 25.75%, and the cumulative DALY was 28932.96 person-years. The first stage of occupational pneumoconiosis was the highest among DALY loss (19920.14 person-years), and the DALY loss was positively correlated with the stage of occupational pneumoconiosis. Among occupational pneumoconiosis in Gansu Province, silicosis (13753.66 person-years) and coal worker's pneumoconiosis (13414.73 person-years) caused the highest disease burden, followed by cement pneumoconiosis and asbestos lung. Period, length of service, type of disease, and region are all influencing factors of DALY loss (P<0.05). Conclusion: From 2010 to 2020, the DALY losses caused by occupational pneumoconiosis in Gansu Province showed a fluctuating decrease, with the composition of DALY mainly changing from the loss of life years due to premature death to the loss of years due to injury and disability.
Humans ; Pneumoconiosis/epidemiology* ; Silicosis/epidemiology* ; Anthracosis/epidemiology* ; Asbestos ; Cost of Illness ; China/epidemiology*

Objective: To analyze the disease burden of pneumoconiosis globally and in China from 1990 to 2019 using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 data, and to provide a theoretical basis for prevention and control of pneumoconiosis. Methods: In September 2022, the data of incidence, prevalence, morality and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) of pneumoconiosis and its subtypes globally and in China from 1990 to 2019 were collected from GBD 2019, including absolute number and age-standardized rate (ASR). Joinpoint linear regression model was used to calculate average annual percent change (AAPC) and analyze the change trends of incidence, prevalence, mortality and DALY of pneumoconiosis and its subtypes. Results: From 1990 to 2019, the incident cases, prevalent cases and DALY value of pneumoconiosis showed upward trends, while the number of death cases showed downward trends. And the ASR of incidence (ASIR), the ASR of prevalence (ASPR), the ASR of mortality (ASMR) and the ASR of DALY (ASDR) showed downward trends globally and in China. China accounted for a large proportion of the global disease burden of penumoconiosis, accounting for more than 67% of the incident cases, more than 80% of the prevalent cases, more than 43% of the deaths cases and more than 60% of the absolute number of DALY in the world every year. Male were the main population of pneumoconiosis disease burden globally and in China, and the age of onset was earlier than that of female. The peak age periods of incidence, prevalence, mortality and DALY of pneumoconiosis globally and in China from 1990 to 2019 have increased. Silicosis was still the type with the highest disease burden of pneumoconiosis globally and in China. The disease burden of coal workers' pneumoconiosis had an overall improvement trend, but asbestosis had an increasing disease burden worldwide. Conclusion: The disease burden of pneumoconiosis is heavy globally and in China, which is necessary to strengthen the supervision and prevention measures according to gender, age and etiological types.
Male ; Humans ; Female ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Pneumoconiosis/epidemiology* ; Cost of Illness ; Asbestosis/epidemiology* ; China/epidemiology* ; Anthracosis ; Incidence

BACKGROUND: Epilepsy accounts for a significant portion of the global disease burden. However, little is known about the disease burden of epilepsy in China and its provinces. METHODS: We assessed the burden of epilepsy in China and its provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions from 1990 to 2019. Burden was measured as incidence, prevalence, deaths, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), by age, sex, year, and province. We used the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) to determine the association between the provincial development level and age-standardized DALY rates of epilepsy from 1990 to 2019. RESULTS: In 2019, epilepsy caused 1367.51 thousand (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 979.92-1837.61 thousand) DALYs, and the age-standardized DALY rate was 99.77 (95% UI: 71.33-133.52)/100,000. The age-standardized incidence and prevalence rates for epilepsy in China were 24.65/100,000 and 219.69/100,000, increased by 45.00% (95% UI: 8.03-98.74%) and 35.72% (95% UI: 0.47-86.19%) compared with that in 1990, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, the proportion of DALY caused by epilepsy in the age group under 25 years steadily decreased. The proportion of DALYs caused by epilepsy in people aged 50 years and over increased from 9.45% and 10.22% in 1990 to 29.01% and 32.72% for male and female individuals in 2019, respectively. The highest age-standardized mortality rates were seen in Tibet (4.26 [95% UI: 1.43-5.66]/100,000), Qinghai (1.80 [95% UI: 1.15-2.36]/100,000), and Yunnan (1.30 [95% UI: 0.88-1.62]/100,000), and the lowest mortality rates were in Guangdong (0.48 [95% UI: 0.39-0.64]/100,000), Zhejiang (0.56 [95% UI: 0.44-0.70]/100,000), and Shanghai (0.57 [95% UI: 0.41-0.73]/100,000). The age-standardized DALY rates across the country and in provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions generally decreased as their SDI increased. CONCLUSIONS The disease burden of epilepsy is still heavy in China, especially in the western provinces. The incidence and prevalence of epilepsy increased between 1990 and 2019, and the burden of epilepsy in the elderly increases gradually. This study provides evidence on epilepsy prevention and care of different regions in China.
Aged ; Humans ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Adult ; Global Burden of Disease ; China/epidemiology* ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Cost of Illness ; Epilepsy/epidemiology* ; Prevalence