PURPOSE: To comprehensively analyze the geographic and temporal trends of foot fracture, understand its health burden by age, sex, and sociodemographic index (SDI), and explore its leading causes from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: The datasets in the present study were generated from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019, which included foot fracture data from 1990 to 2019. We extracted estimates along with the 95% uncertainty interval (UI) for the incidence and years lived with disability (YLDs) of foot fracture by location, age, gender, and cause. The epidemiology and burden of foot fracture at the global, regional, and national level was exhibited. Next, we presented the age and sex patterns of foot fracture. The leading cause of foot fracture was another focus of this study from the viewpoint of age, sex, and location. Then, Pearson's correlations between age-standardized rate (ASR), SDI, and estimated annual percentage change were calculated. RESULTS: The age-standardized incidence rate was 138.68 (95% UI: 104.88 - 182.53) per 100,000 persons for both sexes, 174.24 (95% UI: 134.35 - 222.49) per 100,000 persons for males, and 102.19 (95% UI: 73.28 - 138.00) per 100,000 persons for females in 2019. The age-standardized YLDs rate was 5.91 (95% UI: 3.58 - 9.25) per 100,000 persons for both genders, 7.35 (95% UI: 4.45 - 11.50) per 100,000 persons for males, and 4.51 (95% UI: 2.75 - 7.03) per 100,000 persons for females in 2019. The global incidence and YLDs of foot fracture increased in number and decreased in ASR from 1990 to 2019. The global geographical distribution of foot fracture is uneven. The incidence rate for males peaked at the age group of 20 - 24 years, while that for females increased with advancing age. The incidence rate of older people was rising, as younger age incidence rate declined from 1990 to 2019. Falls, exposure to mechanical forces, and road traffic injuries were the 3 leading causes of foot fracture. Correlations were observed between ASR, estimated annual percentage change, and SDI. CONCLUSIONS The burden of foot fracture remains high globally, and it poses an enormous public health challenge, with population aging. It is necessary to allocate more resources to the high-risk populations. Targeted realistic intervention policies and strategies are warranted.
Humans ; Male ; Female ; Incidence ; Fractures, Bone/epidemiology* ; Middle Aged ; Adult ; Global Health ; Aged ; Global Burden of Disease ; Adolescent ; Child ; Young Adult ; Foot Injuries/epidemiology* ; Cost of Illness ; Child, Preschool ; Aged, 80 and over ; Infant

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that in 2015, approximately 325 million or 4.4% of the global population were living with chronic hepatitis B or hepatitis C infection. In the same year, around 1.34 million died from this disease.

This study aimed to estimate the burden of hepatitis B in the Philippines and to determine the costeffectiveness of possible interventions.

This study utilized the Center for Disease Analysis Foundation’s (CDAF’s) mathematical disease burden model of hepatitis B. Model inputs were collected using literature review, key informant interviews, expert panel interviews, and records review, and were validated through a series of round table discussions with experts.

Results show that in 2017, the prevalence of chronic hepatitis B infection in the Philippines was 9.7%, equivalent to 10 million infected individuals. Although the model projects a decreasing trend in chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infections, liver-related mortality and morbidity due to these viruses are expected to rise if the status quo is maintained. Results show that substantial increase in government subsidy for WHO elimination scenarios would be required to achieve cost-effective outcomes.

Hepatitis B remains a huge problem in the Philippines. The HBV modelling exercise reveal that it will be worthwhile and cost-effective to adhere to the WHO elimination targets. A substantial financial investment will be necessary to do so, specifically a significant scale up in the screening, diagnosis, treatment, and monitoring of patients with HBV. While this modelling exercise does not yield burden of disease as accurate as a prevalence survey, experts consulted in the round table discussions agreed with the modelling inputs.

OBJECTIVE: Asthma imposes a significant global health burden. This study examines changes in the asthma-related disease burden from 1990 to 2021 and projects future burdens for 2050 under different scenarios. METHODS: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study, we analyzed asthma incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2021. We projected the disease burden for 2050 based on current trends and hypothetical scenarios in which all risk factors are controlled. Temporal trends in age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALY rates were explored using Annual Percent Change. RESULTS: In 2021, the age-standardized rates for asthma incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs in China were 364.17 per 100,000 (95% uncertainty interval [ UI]: 283.22-494.10), 1,956.49 per 100,000 (95% UI: 1,566.68-2,491.87), 1.47 per 100,000 (95% UI: 1.15-1.79), and 103.76 per 100,000 (95% UI: 72.50-145.46), respectively. A higher disease burden was observed among Chinese men and individuals aged 70 years or older. Compared to the current trend, a combined scenario involving improvements in environmental factors, behavioral and metabolic health, child nutrition, and vaccination resulted in a greater reduction in the disease burden caused by asthma. CONCLUSION Addressing modifiable risk factors is essential for further reducing the asthma-related disease burden.
Humans ; Asthma/mortality* ; China/epidemiology* ; Male ; Female ; Adult ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Child ; Adolescent ; Global Burden of Disease/trends* ; Child, Preschool ; Young Adult ; Infant ; Cost of Illness ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Prevalence ; Incidence ; Infant, Newborn ; Aged, 80 and over ; Risk Factors

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to analyze the burden of lower respiratory infections in Chinese elderly people aged 70 and above. METHODS: This study utilized Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 1990-2050 prediction data to analyze changes in mortality rates and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates for lower respiratory infections in the elderly population (aged 70 and above) in China from 1990 to 2050. It also discusses future trends in the burden of lower respiratory infections (LRI) in China under different scenarios. RESULTS: According to GBD predictions, the burden of lower respiratory infections in the elderly aged 70 years and above in China is lower than the global average. The burden has been decreasing from 1990 to 2020, but is projected to increase from 2020 to 2050. Scenario-based predictions suggest that, under scenarios involving improvements in nutrition and vaccination, the burden of lower respiratory infections in the elderly in China is expected to be the lowest in 2050. CONCLUSION This study indicates that the burden of lower respiratory infections in elderly people aged 70 years and above in China remains a significant public health issue and may worsen. The government should consider strengthening the preventive measures and management strategies for respiratory infections in the elderly population.
Humans ; China/epidemiology* ; Aged ; Respiratory Tract Infections/mortality* ; Aged, 80 and over ; Male ; Female ; Forecasting ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Global Burden of Disease ; Cost of Illness

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the prevalence and burden of headache disorders in China and its provinces from 1990 to 2021. METHODS: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021, the number of prevalent cases, prevalence rate, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized DALY rates were analyzed by sex, age group, and province for headache disorders and their subtypes (migraine and tension-type headache [TTH]) between 1990 and 2021. Percentage changes during this period were also estimated. RESULTS: In 2021, approximately 426 million individuals in China were affected by headache disorders, with an age-standardized prevalence rate of 27,582.61/100,000. The age-standardized DALY rate for all headache disorders was 487.15/100,000. Between 1990 and 2021, the number of prevalent cases increased by 37.78%, while the prevalence of all headache disorders, migraine, and TTH increased by 6.92%, 7.57%, and 7.86%, respectively. The highest prevalence was observed in the 30-34 age group (39,520.60/100,000). Migraine accounted for a larger proportion of DALYs attributable to headache disorders, whereas TTH has a greater impact on its prevalence. In 2021, the highest age-standardized DALY rates for headache disorders were observed in Heilongjiang (617.85/100,000) and Shanghai (542.86/100,000). CONCLUSION The prevalence of headache disorders is increasing in China. Effective health education, improve diagnosis and treatment are essential, particularly for middle-aged working populations and women of childbearing age.
Humans ; China/epidemiology* ; Female ; Male ; Adult ; Middle Aged ; Prevalence ; Young Adult ; Adolescent ; Aged ; Child ; Headache Disorders/epidemiology* ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Child, Preschool ; Cost of Illness ; Infant ; Aged, 80 and over

OBJECTIVE: The Asia-Pacific region has a high chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) burden, but studies on its trends are limited. Using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 data, we analyzed COPD trends in 36 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019 and predicted future incidence trends through 2034. METHODS: COPD data by age and sex from the GBD 2019 database were analyzed for incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rates from 1990 to 2019. Joinpoint regression identified significant annual trends, and age-standardized incidence rates were predicted through 2034 using age-period-cohort models. RESULTS: The incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disease burden of COPD have been decreasing, and the incidence rates will continue to decrease or remain stable until 2034 in most selected countries and territories, except for a few Southeastern Asian countries. The Lao People's Democratic Republic and Vietnam are projected to experience an increase in COPD incidence from 165.3 per 100,000 in 2019 to 177 per 100,000 in 2034 and from 179.9 per 100,000 in 2019 to 192.5 per 100,000 in 2034, respectively. Older males had a higher incidence than any other sex or age group. The sex gap in incidence rates continues to widen, though it is smaller and less significant in the younger age group than in those in the older one. CONCLUSION COPD rates are expected to decline until 2034 but remain a health risk, especially in countries with rising rates. Urgent action on tobacco control, air pollution, and public education is needed.
Humans ; Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/mortality* ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Incidence ; Asia/epidemiology* ; Adult ; Prevalence ; Cost of Illness ; Aged, 80 and over ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Young Adult ; Global Burden of Disease ; Adolescent

OBJECTIVE: The role of cold spells of different intensities in the economic burden of death is crucial for health adaptation to climate change, especially in a multi-site setting. The objective of the study was to explore the economic burden of mortality attributable to cold spells. METHODS: We performed a two-stage time-series analysis using the Value of Statistical Life (VSL) approach to evaluate the economic impact of mortality related to cold spells of varying lengths and intensities. This analysis employed a case-crossover design, with a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) used for analysis. Analysis was stratified according to age, sex, and region of origin. The results of the assessment show that cold spells have an enormous impact on the economic losses of mortality due to climate change and aging. RESULTS: Totally, 8.3% (95% CI: 0.0%, 16.0%) to 13.8% (95% CI: 1.0%, 24.8%) of VSL were ascribed to cold spells, accounting for economic losses of 4.71 (95% CI: 0.34, 8.47) to 11.45 (95% CI: 0.00, 21.00) billion CNY, in the cold season. The population aged over 65 y and females are particularly vulnerable. Economic impacts in warmer regions, such as the southern and subtropical zones, are more extensive than those in the northern and temperate zones. CONCLUSION Customizing cold spell prevention measures for vulnerable populations or regions is vital to alleviating the socioeconomic burden.
China/epidemiology* ; Humans ; Female ; Male ; Cold Temperature/adverse effects* ; Aged ; Middle Aged ; Adult ; Mortality ; Infant ; Child ; Adolescent ; Child, Preschool ; Young Adult ; Climate Change ; Aged, 80 and over ; Cost of Illness ; Infant, Newborn

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the epidemiological characteristics and changing trends of communicable diseases among children and adolescents in China from 1990 to 2021. METHODS: Based on the Global Burden of Disease Database, epidemiological indicators for communicable diseases among the population aged under 20 years in China from 1990 to 2021 were selected to analyze the burden of communicable diseases in this population, and a comparative analysis was performed with global data as well as data from Western Europe and North America. RESULTS: In 1990-2021, the overall burden of communicable diseases tended to decrease among children and adolescents in China. In 2021, the prevalence rate of communicable diseases in China was lower than the global prevalence rate and was higher than that in Western Europe and North America. There was a significant reduction in the mortality rate of communicable diseases, and the gap with Western Europe and North America gradually narrowed year by year. The overall incidence rate, mortality rate, and disability-adjusted life year rate of communicable diseases in males were higher than those in females, and respiratory infections and intestinal infections were more common in children aged <5 years, while the incidence rate of sexually transmitted diseases was higher in adolescents. CONCLUSIONS From 1990 to 2021, the disease burden of communicable diseases among the population under 20 years old in China has significantly decreased. However, there is still a certain gap compared to developed regions. Strengthening the prevention and control of diseases such as respiratory infections and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, as well as enhancing health interventions for children under 5 years old, will help improve the overall health level of children and adolescents in China.
Humans ; Adolescent ; Communicable Diseases/mortality* ; Child ; China/epidemiology* ; Male ; Female ; Child, Preschool ; Infant ; Young Adult ; Cost of Illness ; Infant, Newborn

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the disease burden of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) among children and adolescents in China and to predict future trends, in order to provide evidence for disease control strategies. METHODS: Based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021), joinpoint regression and prediction models were constructed to analyze and forecast the trends in ADHD burden indicators among Chinese children and adolescents from 1990 to 2021. RESULTS: In 2021, the incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates of ADHD among children and adolescents in China increased by 41.46%, 21.44%, and 21.75%, respectively, compared to 1990. From 1990 to 2021, the disease burden of ADHD showed an overall upward trend across sex and age groups, with a heavier burden among males. The highest incidence was observed in children aged 5-9 years, while the highest prevalence and DALY rates were found in those aged 10-14 years. By 2031, the incidence, prevalence, and DALY rates of ADHD among Chinese children and adolescents are projected to reach 324.88 per 100 000, 3 762.36 per 100 000, and 45.85 per 100 000, respectively. CONCLUSIONS From 1990 to 2021, the incidence, prevalence, and DALY rates of ADHD among children and adolescents in China have all increased, suggesting that more proactive prevention and intervention measures may be needed to alleviate the disease burden of ADHD in this population.
Humans ; Child ; Adolescent ; Attention Deficit Disorder with Hyperactivity/epidemiology* ; Male ; Female ; Child, Preschool ; China/epidemiology* ; Cost of Illness ; Prevalence ; Incidence ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Forecasting ; East Asian People

OBJECTIVES: To analyze the disease burden of melanoma among middle-aged and elderly populations in China, and to predict the future trend. METHODS: Data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 were utilized to collect incidence and mortality rates of melanoma, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and corresponding age crude rates among the middle-aged and elderly population in China during 1990 and 2021. Additionally, the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was employed to assess the temporal trends. Age-period-cohort (APC) and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models were utilized to compute age, period, and cohort effects on incidence and mortality rates of melanoma, as well as to predict future trends up to 2035. RESULTS: During 1990-2021, the incidence rate of melanoma for males was higher than that for females among the middle-aged and elderly population in China, and the overall incidence rate increased annually with an EAPC of 2.13 (1.90-2.36), while the overall mortality rate and DALY rate showed a declining trend with an EAPC of －0.28 (－0.41-－0.15) and －0.54 (－0.68-－0.41), respectively. The results of the APC model analysis revealed that age effects on both incidence and mortality rates of melanoma in China's middle-aged and elderly population were significant, with both increasing with age. Period and cohort effects showed an upward trend for incidence rates but a downward trend for mortality rates. Moreover, the period and cohort effects for mortality rates were not significant among females. In the BAPC prediction model, the number of incidences of melanoma in middle-aged and elderly people in China would increase dramatically. By 2035, the number of incidence cases is expected to reach approximately 9600 (males) and 10 300 (females), corresponding to an incidence rate of 2.66/10⁵ and 2.67/10⁵, respectively. The number of deaths is projected to be about 2600 (males) and 3500 (females) by 2035, corresponding to a mortality rate of 0.72/10⁵ and 0.91/10⁵, respectively. CONCLUSIONS The disease burden of melanoma among the middle-aged and elderly population in China remains substantial and is expected to increase over the next decade.
Humans ; Melanoma/mortality* ; China/epidemiology* ; Aged ; Middle Aged ; Male ; Female ; Incidence ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Bayes Theorem ; Cost of Illness ; Skin Neoplasms/epidemiology*