Objectives: Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a widespread infectious disease that causes a significant disease burden on society. To achieve early intervention and to prevent outbreaks of disease, we propose a novel warning model that can accurately predict the incidence of HFMD. Methods: We propose a spatial-temporal graph convolutional network (STGCN) that combines spatial factors for surrounding cities with historical incidence over a certain time period to predict the future occurrence of HFMD in Guangdong and Shandong between 2011 and 2019. The 2011-2018 data served as the training and verification set, while data from 2019 served as the prediction set. Six important parameters were selected and verified in this model and the deviation was displayed by the root mean square error and the mean absolute error. Results: As the first application using a STGCN for disease forecasting, we succeeded in accurately predicting the incidence of HFMD over a 12-week period at the prefecture level, especially for cities of significant concern. Conclusions This model provides a novel approach for infectious disease prediction and may help health administrative departments implement effective control measures up to 3 months in advance, which may significantly reduce the morbidity associated with HFMD in the future.
China/epidemiology* ; Cities/epidemiology* ; Data Visualization ; Disease Outbreaks/statistics & numerical data* ; Forecasting/methods* ; Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease/prevention & control* ; Humans ; Incidence ; Neural Networks, Computer ; Reproducibility of Results ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; Time Factors

BACKGROUND: Regional disparities in the working conditions of medical doctors have not been fully assessed in Japan. We aimed to clarify these differences in hospital characteristics: doctors' workload, wages, and popularity among medical students by city population sizes. METHODS: We targeted 423 teaching hospitals certified by the Japanese Society of Internal Medicine and assessed the working conditions of physicians specializing in internal medicine. We calculated their workload (the annual number of discharged patients per physician) and retrieved data on junior residents' monthly wages from the Resinavi Book which is popular among medical students in Japan to know the teaching hospital's information and each hospital's website. Furthermore, we explored the interim matching rate of each hospital as its popularity among medical students. Next, we classified cities in which all hospitals were located into eight groups based on their population size and compared the characteristics of these hospitals using a one-way analysis of variance. RESULTS: The average workload was 110.3, while the average workload in hospitals located in most populated cities (≥ 2,000,000) was 88.4 (p < 0.05). The average monthly wage was 351,199 Japanese yen, while that in most populated cities was 305,635.1 Japanese yen. The average popularity (matching rate) was 101.9%, and the rate in most populated areas was 142.7%, which was significantly higher than in other areas. CONCLUSIONS Hospitals in most populated areas had significantly lower workloads and wages; however, they were more popular among medical students than those in other areas. This study was the first to quantify the regional disparities in physicians' working conditions in Japan, and such disparities need to be corrected.
Cities/statistics & numerical data* ; Geography ; Hospitals, Teaching/statistics & numerical data* ; Japan ; Physicians/statistics & numerical data* ; Population Density ; Salaries and Fringe Benefits/statistics & numerical data* ; Students, Medical/psychology* ; Workload/statistics & numerical data*

BACKGROUND: Helmet use reduces the risk and severity of head injury and death due to road traffic crash among motorcyclists. The protective efficacy of different types of helmets varies. Wearing firmly fastened full-face helmet termed as effective helmet use provides greatest protection. This study estimates the prevalence and factors associated with effective helmet use among motorcyclists in Mysuru, a tier II city in Southern India. METHODS: Cross-sectional road side observational study of 3499 motorcyclists (2134 motorcycle riders and 1365 pillion riders) at four traffic intersections was done followed by interview of random sample of 129 of the above riders. Effective helmet use proportion and effective helmet use per 100 person-minute of observation was calculated. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was done to identify factors associated with effective helmet use. RESULTS: Prevalence of effective helmet use was 28 per 100 riders and 19.5 per 100 person-minute of observation in traffic intersections. Prevalence rates of effective helmet use was higher among riders (34.5% vs pillion riders 18.1%), female riders (51.3% vs male riders 26.8%), and male pillion riders (30.5% vs female pillion riders 13.7%). Riders commuting for work and school and those ever stopped by the police in the past 3 months had significantly higher odds of effective helmet use. CONCLUSION Despite helmet use being compulsory by law for motorcyclists, the effective helmet use was low in Mysore. Strict enforcement and frequent checks by the police are necessary to increase the effective helmet use.
Adult ; Cities ; Craniocerebral Trauma ; prevention & control ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Female ; Head Protective Devices ; statistics & numerical data ; Humans ; India ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Motorcycles ; statistics & numerical data ; Transportation ; Young Adult

OBJECTIVES: The association between concentrations of sulfur dioxide (SO), nitrogen dioxide (NO), carbon monoxide (CO), ozone (O), and emergency ambulance dispatches (EADs) for asthma was explored in the central Sichuan Basin of southwestern China for the first time. METHODS: EADs for asthma were collected from the Chengdu First-Aid Command Center. Pollutant concentrations were collected from 24 municipal environmental monitoring centers and including SO, NO, CO, daily 8-h mean concentrations of O (O-8 h), and particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM). The climatic data were collected from the Chengdu Municipal Meteorological Bureau. All data were collected from years spanning 2013-2017. A time-stratified case-crossover design was used to analyze the data. RESULTS: After controlling for temperature, relative humidity, and atmospheric pressure, IQR increases in SO (13 μg/m), NO (17 μg/m), and CO (498 μg/m) were associated with 18.8%, 11.5%, and 3.1% increases in EADs for asthma, respectively. The associations were strongest for EADs and SO, NO, and CO levels with 3-, 5-, and 1-day lags, respectively. CONCLUSIONS This study provides additional data to the limited body of literature for potential health risks arising from ambient gaseous pollutants. The results of the study suggest that increased concentrations of SO, NO, and CO were positively associated with emergency ambulance dispatches for asthma in Chengdu, China. Further studies are needed to investigate the effects of individual air pollutants on asthma.
Air Pollutants ; analysis ; toxicity ; Asthma ; chemically induced ; epidemiology ; Carbon Monoxide ; analysis ; toxicity ; China ; epidemiology ; Cities ; Cross-Over Studies ; Emergency Medical Dispatch ; statistics & numerical data ; Environmental Monitoring ; statistics & numerical data ; Humans ; Nitrogen Dioxide ; analysis ; toxicity ; Ozone ; analysis ; toxicity ; Particle Size ; Particulate Matter ; analysis ; toxicity ; Risk ; Sulfur Dioxide ; analysis ; toxicity

BACKGROUND: Road traffic injury is one of the persistent public health challenges in most regions of the world, representing substantial human and economic losses. Annually, about 1.25 million lives are lost, whereas 50 million suffer from road traffic injuries globally. It has been shown that over 60% of the reasons for traffic injuries are a risky driving behavior (RDB). Despite the problem's pervasiveness, there is a paucity of information about level and factors influencing RDB among professional car drivers in Bahirdar city, northwest Ethiopia. METHODS: An institution-based cross-sectional study was conducted from February to March 2016. A systematic random sampling technique was used to select 376 participants. A self-administered driver behavior questionnaire (DBQ) was used for data collection. We performed a binary logistic regression analysis to investigate the associations of variables. Potential confounders were controlled using a multivariable logistic regression model. We ascertained the significance at < 0.05 p value and evaluated strength of associations using crude odds ratios (COR) and adjusted odds ratios (AOR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: A total of 361 drivers participated (response rate, 96%). The mean age was 34 (standard deviations ± 7.97) years. The majority, 98.9% (N = 357), were males. The level of risky driving behavior and road traffic crashes were 79.4% (95% CI 75.92, 83.97) and 16.3% (95% CI 15.91, 24.84), respectively. Average monthly salary [AOR 2.04; 95% CI (1.23, 2.74)], driving experience [AOR 2.72; 95% CI (1.07, 6.89)], distance driven per year [AOR 2.06; 95% CI (1.13, 4.10)], and previous history of involvement in traffic crashes [AOR 2.30; 95% CI (1.15, 7.35)] were significantly associated with risky driving behavior. CONCLUSIONS The study shows that risky driving behavior is common among professional car drivers in the study setting. Therefore, it is strongly advisable for policy makers and other stake holders to devise strategies that consider working conditions, like monthly salary and driving experiences. The study also suggests that it is often advisable to reduce the distance driven per year and learn from implications of previous history of involvement in traffic crashes.
Accidents, Occupational ; statistics & numerical data ; Accidents, Traffic ; statistics & numerical data ; Adult ; Automobile Driving ; psychology ; statistics & numerical data ; Cities ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Ethiopia ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Odds Ratio ; Risk Factors ; Risk-Taking ; Surveys and Questionnaires

Objective: To understand the rate on tobacco use and associated factors in junior middle school students in Shaanxi province. Methods: We used a multi-stage stratified random sampling method to select students from 30 junior middle schools in 10 areas of Shaanxi province in 2013. All the participants completed a self-administered questionnaire. Results: A total of 4 633 questionnaires were dispatched and 4 298 were qualified for further analysis. The current smoking rate of junior middle school students in Shaanxi was 6.5%, with rate in male (11.1%) higher than that of female students (1.7%). The current smoking rate of students in grade three (9.3%) was higher than those of students in grade one (3.5%) or in grade two (7.0%). The smoking rate of students with pocket money more than 31 Yuan per week was (10.0%) higher than those of students with pocket money less than 10 Yuan (4.6%) or 10-30 Yuan (6.3%) per week. Results from the logistic regression analysis showed that factors as: male, school located in the city, older age, with more pocket money, having smokers in the family and exposure to second hand smoking were high risk factors for current smoking. Conclusion: Rate on current smoking was high in junior middle schools students in Shaanxi, suggesting that comprehensive intervention programs be developed to reduce the rate of tobacco use in junior middle school students.
China/epidemiology* ; Cities ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Prevalence ; Schools ; Smoking/epidemiology* ; Students/statistics & numerical data* ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Tobacco Smoke Pollution/adverse effects* ; Tobacco Use/epidemiology*

Objective: To standardize the reporting system on hepatitis B in order to improve the quality of monitoring program in Henan province. Methods: A total of 6 sites of Hepatitis B pilot surveillance were selected in Xinzheng of Zhengzhou city, Linzhou of Anyang city, Shanyang district of Jiaozuo city, Shaoling district of Luohe city, Yongcheng of Shangqiu city, Pingqiao district of Xinyang city in Henan province. Subjects under study were those reported hepatitis B cases, from 2012 to 2016. Cases diagnosed in 2011 were chosen as controls. Data on classification of hepatitis B, time that HBsAg became positive and ALT value of the cases were analyzed annually. 5 ml venous blood was collected and anti-HBc IgM confirmed test was made for those suspected acute cases on hepatitis B. Based on the 2016 data from the monitoring system, the incidence of acute hepatitis B in Henan province was estimated. Results: The number of reported hepatitis B cases had declined in 6 sites of Hepatitis B pilot surveillance substantially. A total of 17 436 hepatitis B reported in 2011 but only 2 632 cases were reported in 2016, with a reduction of 84.90%(14 804/17 436) in these six monitoring sites. The number of unclassified hepatitis B cases also dropped sharply. In 2011, 36.87% of the cases were unclassified, but the figure reduced to 0.08% in 2016, from the six sites. The rate on ALT detection also gradually improved. The rate of misdiagnosis on HBV carrier from hepatitis B almost disappeared. From 2013 to 2016, 777 blood samples were collected from six pilot sites. 29.34% (228/777) of the blood samples were tested positive for anti-HBc IgM after confirmed by the hepatitis laboratory of the China Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Conclusions: Since the development of the pilot surveillance program, the quality of reporting system on hepatitis B had been improved, as well as the accuracy of diagnosis. Rate on the accuracy of reporting on hepatitis B and the methods of testing should be improved at the monitoring sites.
China/epidemiology* ; Cities ; Disease Notification/statistics & numerical data* ; Hepatitis A/epidemiology* ; Hepatitis B/epidemiology* ; Hepatitis B Antibodies/blood* ; Hepatitis B Surface Antigens/blood* ; Humans ; Incidence ; Pilot Projects ; Population Surveillance ; Sentinel Surveillance

Objective: To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of waist circumference and abdominal obesity among Chinese children and adolescents aged 6-17 years. Methods: Data was from the samples of aged 6-17 years in the China National Nutrition and Health Surveillance program in 2010-2012. P(90) (the same age, the same sex) was used as the diagnostic value for abdominal obesity. Results: The overall waist circumference of children and adolescents in all the age groups appeared higher in males than that in females (P<0.000 1), higher in cities than that in the rural areas (P<0.05), and higher in children with high family income than those with middle or low family incomes (P=0.000 3). The rate of abdominal obesity in children and adolescents aged 6-17 years appeared as 11.2% on average and 10.7% and 11.8% for boys and girls, respectively but with no significant difference (P>0.05). Rates on abdominal obesity appeared as 13.2% and 8.5% for boys while as 12.3% and 11.2% for girls respectively, in urban or rural areas. As for the levels of family income, the abdominal obesity rates appeared as 15.8%, 11.5% and 8.8% respectively for boys while 13.5%, 11.9% and 11.6% respectively for girls, under high, middle and low levels of family income. Conclusion: The rate of abdominal obesity in boys seemed more responsive to the impact of income in urban or rural areas.
Adolescent ; Asian People/statistics & numerical data* ; Child ; China/epidemiology* ; Cities ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Obesity, Abdominal/ethnology* ; Prevalence ; Waist Circumference

Objective: To investigate the economic burden of hepatitis C patients and related factors in Guangdong province. Methods: In this study, cluster sampling method was used to select cases, including acute hepatitis C, chronic hepatitis C and liver cirrhosis cases from eligible outpatients and inpatients in 1 or 2 large general hospitals in all the 21 cities in Guangdong province. Questionnaire survey was conducted for all the hepatitis C patients to analyze their economic burden, while multivariate linear regression model was used to identify the related influencing factors. Results: A total of 356 hepatitis C patients were enrolled in the study, with 176 outpatients (49.4%) and 180 inpatients (50.6%) respectively. The average age of the study subjects was (44.79±11.73) year-olds. The annual direct economic costs of patients with acute hepatitis C, chronic hepatitis C and liver cirrhosis were 10 703.22 (IQR: 7 396.75-16 891.91), 14 886.63 (IQR: 7 274.00-30 228.25) and 28 874.00 (IQR: 13 093.69-56 350.00) Yuan (RMB) respectively. The annual indirect costs appeared as 2 426.99 (IQR: 1 912.18-7 354.52), 3 235.99 (IQR: 1 323.81-6 619.07) and 5 442.35 (IQR: 3 235.99-10 296.33) Yuan (RMB) respectively. The annual intangible costs were 5 000.00 (IQR:2 000.00-10 000.00), 10 000.00 (IQR: 4 000.00-30 000.00) and 10 000.00 (IQR: 3 000.00-100 000.00) Yuan (RMB) respectively. The annual total costs were 22 306.17 (IQR: 14 581.24-50 569.17), 38 050.33 (IQR: 17 449.57-68 319.62) and 80 152.18 (IQR: 40 856.09-228 460.79) Yuan (RMB) respectively. Results from the multiple linear regression analysis showed that factors as: annual hospitalization days, annual number of outpatient visits, annual number of hospitalization, type of disease and the levels of the hospitals were related to the economic burden of patients with hepatitis C. Conclusion: Patients with HCV-related diseases presented serious economic problem which calls for close attention in Guangdong province.
Adult ; China/epidemiology* ; Cities ; Cost of Illness ; Female ; Health Care Costs/statistics & numerical data* ; Hepatitis B/epidemiology* ; Hepatitis C/economics* ; Hospitalization ; Humans ; Liver Cirrhosis/epidemiology* ; Male ; Surveys and Questionnaires

Objective: To assess the prevalence of blood donation and associated factors in men who have sex with men (MSM) in China. Methods: Our observational study was conducted between January and August, 2017 in 3 cities: Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Wuxi. Eligible participants were MSM (≥18 years old) who had either ≥2 male sex partners or unprotected anal sex with casual partners, or had been diagnosed with STI in the past 6 months. A self-completed tablet-based questionnaire was used to collect the information about MSM's socio-demographic characteristics, sexual behaviors and blood donation history. Results: A total of 603 MSM were enrolled in our study, including 302 in Guangzhou, 152 in Shenzhen and 149 in Wuxi, with a mean age of 27.9 years (SD=7.8). Overall, 29.2% (176/603) of the MSM reported a history of blood donation, and 33.1% (100/302)in Guangzhou, 27.6% (42/152) in Shenzhen and 22.8% (34/149) in Wuxi, the differences were not significant (χ(2)=6.421, P=0.093). Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that MSM had ever tested for HIV for ≥2 times in the past 12 months (vs. MSM tested for HIV one time, aOR=1.49, 95%CI: 1.08-2.19) or who had ever used gay dating app (vs. MSM who not used gay dating app, aOR=2.13, 95%CI: 1.12-4.44) were more likely to donate blood. Conclusions: Blood donation was common in MSM in China. Health education about blood donation in MSM should be strengthened to ensure the blood safety.
Adolescent ; Adult ; Blood Donors ; China ; Cities ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Homosexuality, Male/statistics & numerical data* ; Humans ; Male ; Sexual Behavior ; Sexual Partners ; Surveys and Questionnaires