Objective: To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease. Methods: Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance. Results: A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October). Conclusions For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.

Personal health records were collected and analyzed for 1804 residents at Dongfeng town,Zhongshan city, Guangdong. One hundred and forty-one of 1804 residents suffered from chronic pharyngitis with a prevalence of 7.8 percent, 11.9 percent in males and 6. 6 percent in females with statistically significant difference (x2 = 12. 076, P ＜ 0. 05 ). Age, body mass index, physical exercise, eating habit,dental caries, oral illness (gingivitis, periondontitis, ondontolith), ear-nose-throat diseases, allergic constitution all were associated with their chronic pharyngitis, which was more prevalent in those of males,with ear-nose-throat diseases, lack of physical exercise, aged less than 24 years and over-intake of sugar.

AIM　To analyze the hydrolyzable tannins chebulinic acid (I) and chebulagic acid(II) in Fructus Chebulae and its confusion varieties by using high performance capillary electrophoresis (HPCE) method. METHODS　Using a capillary (375 μm OD×50 μm ID; 81.5 cm×61.5 cm) and a power supply set at 24 kV, with phosphate-borate buffer containing 20 mmol*L-1 Na2HPO4-60 mmol*L-1 boric acid and a UV detector at 280 nm, sample solution was loaded in decompression mode at the positive end of the capillary, the loading time was 5 s. RESULTS　The linear ranges of I and II were 0.0842-0.842 and 0.0940-0.940 mg*mL-1 respectively, the correlation coefficient were 0.9966 and 0.9957, the average recoveries were 95.6% (RSD=4.0%, n=5) and 95.0% (RSD=4.4%, n=5), the RSDs (n=5) of measurement precision test were 2.2% and 1.7%, the RSDs (n=6) of reproduction test were 5.4% and 4.0% respectively. The contents of I and II were obviously interrelated with the variety and characteristics of Fructus Chebulae, the contents of I and II in the confusion varieties of Fructus Chebulae were very low. CONCLUSION　It is suitable to use I and II as the criterion in quality evaluation of Fructus Chebulae, and the HPCE method is effective for quality evaluation of the crude Fructus Chebulae.