Objective:To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of child injuries（CI）and provide a scientific basis for developing CI prevention and treatment strategies.Methods:Clinical data of CI cases admitted to Kunshan Woman and Children’s Healthcare Hospital from January 1st，2020 to December 31st，2022 were collected. The cases were classified into three age groups：infants and toddlers（0-3 years），preschoolers（4-6 years），and school-age children（7-14 years）. Post hoc testing was used for pairwise comparisons between groups，and differences were determined based on adjusted standardized residuals（AR）. The epidemiological characteristics that were analyzed included the type，location，and nature of injuries across these age groups.Results:A total of 12 449 CI cases were collected with a male-to-female ratio of 1.72∶1. School-age boys were more prone to injuries（72.2%， AR=16.3）compared to the other two age groups. The major CI types were falls（50.4%），blunt injuries（15.9%），and strains（9.9%）. The infant and toddler group showed higher rates of strains（21.9%， AR=34.9）and poisonings（7.9%， AR=19.6）compared to the other two groups，while preschoolers group had higher rates of falls（55.6%， AR=6.5）and motor vehicle accidents（4.8%， AR=3.6）compared to other age groups. The most frequently injured body regions were upper limbs（43.9%），head/face/neck（27.0%），and lower limbs（16.7%）. The infant and toddler group had higher rates of head/face/neck（34.8%， AR=15.4），upper limb（46%， AR=3.6），and whole body（8.9%， AR=18.7）injuries. The nature of CI mainly includes contusion/bruise/crush injury（34.3%），fractures（20.0%）and sharp/open wounds（19.5%）. School-age children exhibited higher rates of fractures（30.1%， AR=22.1），strains/sprains（10.1%， AR=13.0），contusion/bruise/crush injury（36.6%， AR=4.2），and multi-site injuries（0.7%， AR=4.4）compared to the other two groups. Injuries were mostly mild（90.8%），with infants and toddlers showing higher mild injury rates（95.0%， AR=12.7），whereas school-aged children had more moderate injuries（11.7%， AR=11.0）. Conclusion:The epidemiological characteristics of CI in infants and toddlers，preschoolers and school-age children are different，and different intervention strategies are needed for different age groups.

Background and purpose:The Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention provides annual updates on cancer statistics in Shanghai.Breast cancer is one of the common malignant tumors among women.In recent years,the incidence of female breast cancer was increasing,while its trend of mortality showed declining.This study aimed to investigate the survival rates of new female breast cancer cases in Shanghai from 2002 to 2017.Methods:Data of new cases and deaths of female breast cancer patients with follow-up information from 2002 to 2017 were obtained from the Population-based Cancer Registry and Vital Statistics System of Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention.Numbers,proportions,and survival rates were stratified by year of diagnosis,age,histological type and stage at diagnosis for analysis.The 5-year observed survival rates were calculated based on the life table method.The probabilities of surviving from 0 to 99 years were estimated with the Elandt-Johnson model,and then cumulative expected survival rates were calculated using the Ederer Ⅱ method.Finally,the 5-year relative survival rates were calculated.The annual percent change(APC)of survival rates was estimated by Joinpoint Regression Program.Results:A total of 73 600 new female breast cancer cases were diagnosed from 2002 to 2017 in Shanghai.Among them,67 681 cases were morphological verification,accounting for 91.96%.By December 31,2022,23 745(32.26%)cases had died,and 19 466(26.45%)cases had died of cancer.A total of 68 332(92.84%)cases,who were either dead or followed for over 5 years,were considered to have complete follow-up.The remaining 5 268(7.16%)cases were lost to follow-up.73 538(99.92%)cases were included in the observed cohort for survival analysis.The number of observed cases nearly doubled from 3330 in 2002 to 6095 in 2017.The 5-year observed survival rate changed from 78.77%in 2002 to 84.55%in 2017 dynamically,showed a low increasing trend with an average rate of 0.50%per year(APC=0.50%,t=8.75,P＜0.001).The 5-year relative survival rate also increased from 83.46%to 89.24%slowly,with an average rate of 0.47%(APC=0.47%,t=9.80,P＜0.001).The overall 5-year observation survival rate of female cancer was 83.24%(82.96%-83.52%),and the 5-year relative survival rate was 87.58%(87.29%-87.87%)in Shanghai from 2002 to 2017.It was increasing over time,decreasing with aging and advanced stage at diagnosis continuously.There was no significant difference in the 5-year relative survival rates between the groups aged 15 to 64(P＞0.05).The group with an unknown stage had the highest number of cases,followed by the stage Ⅱ group,and then the stage Ⅰ group.The 5-year relative survival rate of cases with stage Ⅰ disease reached 99.10%(98.78%-99.42%),but these cases only accounted for 25.51%of the total.The 5-year relative survival rate of cases with stage Ⅳ disease was 52.54%(50.98%-54.11%),and these cases accounted for 6.13%of the total.The 5-year relative survival rate of cases with s unknown stage was 82.04%(81.42%-82.65%),and these cases accounted for 31.05%of the total.Conclusion:The diagnostic levels and survival rates of female breast cancer in Shanghai were relatively high and continue to improve.However,the proportions of cases with unknown histological type and unknown stage remain relatively high,and the proportion of stage Ⅰ cases is not very large.The survival rates of stage Ⅳ cases are relatively low.This study provides evidence for further research,prevention and control efforts for female breast cancer.

Background and purpose:The Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention provides annual updates on cancer statistics in Shanghai.Breast cancer is one of the common malignant tumors among women.In recent years,the incidence of female breast cancer was increasing,while its trend of mortality showed declining.This study aimed to investigate the survival rates of new female breast cancer cases in Shanghai from 2002 to 2017.Methods:Data of new cases and deaths of female breast cancer patients with follow-up information from 2002 to 2017 were obtained from the Population-based Cancer Registry and Vital Statistics System of Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention.Numbers,proportions,and survival rates were stratified by year of diagnosis,age,histological type and stage at diagnosis for analysis.The 5-year observed survival rates were calculated based on the life table method.The probabilities of surviving from 0 to 99 years were estimated with the Elandt-Johnson model,and then cumulative expected survival rates were calculated using the Ederer Ⅱ method.Finally,the 5-year relative survival rates were calculated.The annual percent change(APC)of survival rates was estimated by Joinpoint Regression Program.Results:A total of 73 600 new female breast cancer cases were diagnosed from 2002 to 2017 in Shanghai.Among them,67 681 cases were morphological verification,accounting for 91.96%.By December 31,2022,23 745(32.26%)cases had died,and 19 466(26.45%)cases had died of cancer.A total of 68 332(92.84%)cases,who were either dead or followed for over 5 years,were considered to have complete follow-up.The remaining 5 268(7.16%)cases were lost to follow-up.73 538(99.92%)cases were included in the observed cohort for survival analysis.The number of observed cases nearly doubled from 3330 in 2002 to 6095 in 2017.The 5-year observed survival rate changed from 78.77%in 2002 to 84.55%in 2017 dynamically,showed a low increasing trend with an average rate of 0.50%per year(APC=0.50%,t=8.75,P＜0.001).The 5-year relative survival rate also increased from 83.46%to 89.24%slowly,with an average rate of 0.47%(APC=0.47%,t=9.80,P＜0.001).The overall 5-year observation survival rate of female cancer was 83.24%(82.96%-83.52%),and the 5-year relative survival rate was 87.58%(87.29%-87.87%)in Shanghai from 2002 to 2017.It was increasing over time,decreasing with aging and advanced stage at diagnosis continuously.There was no significant difference in the 5-year relative survival rates between the groups aged 15 to 64(P＞0.05).The group with an unknown stage had the highest number of cases,followed by the stage Ⅱ group,and then the stage Ⅰ group.The 5-year relative survival rate of cases with stage Ⅰ disease reached 99.10%(98.78%-99.42%),but these cases only accounted for 25.51%of the total.The 5-year relative survival rate of cases with stage Ⅳ disease was 52.54%(50.98%-54.11%),and these cases accounted for 6.13%of the total.The 5-year relative survival rate of cases with s unknown stage was 82.04%(81.42%-82.65%),and these cases accounted for 31.05%of the total.Conclusion:The diagnostic levels and survival rates of female breast cancer in Shanghai were relatively high and continue to improve.However,the proportions of cases with unknown histological type and unknown stage remain relatively high,and the proportion of stage Ⅰ cases is not very large.The survival rates of stage Ⅳ cases are relatively low.This study provides evidence for further research,prevention and control efforts for female breast cancer.

Diabetes, hypertension, and dyslipidemia, collectively referred to the " Three Highs, " represent increasingly prevalent metabolic risk factors in China. Many individuals experience all three conditions concurrently, significantly heightening the risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality. Although the National Metabolic Management Center(MMC) has been established for over eight years and has its unique features, the awareness, treatment, and control rates of these diseases in China remain low, and the efficiency of community management is insufficient. According to the previous two editions of management guidelines and the most recent domestic and international diagnostic and treatment guidelines, this paper conducts an in-depth analysis of the operational experience and management strategies of the MMC. Its aim is to improve the efficiency of grassroots MMC mode management for " Three Highs" patients and ensure that patients receive more standardized management.

Diabetes, hypertension, and dyslipidemia, collectively referred to the " Three Highs, " represent increasingly prevalent metabolic risk factors in China. Many individuals experience all three conditions concurrently, significantly heightening the risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality. Although the National Metabolic Management Center(MMC) has been established for over eight years and has its unique features, the awareness, treatment, and control rates of these diseases in China remain low, and the efficiency of community management is insufficient. According to the previous two editions of management guidelines and the most recent domestic and international diagnostic and treatment guidelines, this paper conducts an in-depth analysis of the operational experience and management strategies of the MMC. Its aim is to improve the efficiency of grassroots MMC mode management for " Three Highs" patients and ensure that patients receive more standardized management.

OBJECTIVE: To establish a machine learning model based on extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) algorithm for early prediction of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP), and explore its predictive efficiency. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted. The patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) who admitted to the First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, the Second Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University and Changshu Hospital Affiliated to Soochow University from January 1, 2020 to December 31, 2021 were enrolled. Demography information, etiology, past history, and clinical indicators and imaging data within 48 hours of admission were collected according to the medical record system and image system, and the modified CT severity index (MCTSI), Ranson score, bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) and acute pancreatitis risk score (SABP) were calculated. The data sets of the First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University and Changshu Hospital Affiliated to Soochow University were randomly divided into training set and validation set according to 8 : 2. Based on XGBoost algorithm, the SAP prediction model was constructed on the basis of hyperparameter adjustment by 5-fold cross validation and loss function. The data set of the Second Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University was served as independent test set. The predictive efficacy of the XGBoost model was evaluated by drawing the receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve), and compared it with the traditional AP related severity score; variable importance ranking diagram and Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) diagram were drawn to visually explain the model. RESULTS: A total of 1 183 AP patients were enrolled finally, of which 129 (10.9%) developed SAP. Among the patients from the First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University and Changshu Hospital Affiliated to Soochow University, there were 786 patients in the training set and 197 in the validation set; 200 patients from the Second Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University were used as the test set. Analysis of all three datasets showed that patients who advanced to SAP exhibited pathological manifestation such as abnormal respiratory function, coagulation function, liver and kidney function, and lipid metabolism. Based on the XGBoost algorithm, an SAP prediction model was constructed, and ROC curve analysis showed that the accuracy for prediction of SAP reached 0.830, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.927, which was significantly improved compared with the traditional scoring systems including MCTSI, Ranson, BISAP and SABP, the accuracy was 0.610, 0.690, 0.763, 0.625, and the AUC was 0.689, 0.631, 0.875, and 0.770, respectively. The feature importance analysis based on the XGBoost model showed that the top ten items ranked by the importance of model features were admission pleural effusion (0.119), albumin (Alb, 0.049), triglycerides (TG, 0.036), Ca²⁺ (0.034), prothrombin time (PT, 0.031), systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS, 0.031), C-reactive protein (CRP, 0.031), platelet count (PLT, 0.030), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH, 0.029), and alkaline phosphatase (ALP, 0.028). The above indicators were of great significance for the XGBoost model to predict SAP. The SHAP contribution analysis based on the XGBoost model showed that the risk of SAP increased significantly when patients had pleural effusion and decreased Alb. CONCLUSIONS A SAP prediction scoring system was established based on the machine automatic learning XGBoost algorithm, which can predict the SAP risk of patients within 48 hours of admission with good accuracy.
Humans ; Pancreatitis ; Acute Disease ; Retrospective Studies ; Hospitalization ; Algorithms

Background and purpose:The Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention provides annual updates on cancer occurrence and trends in Shanghai.This study aimed to investigate the cancer incidence and mortality in 201 7 and their trends from 2002 to 2017 in Shanghai. Methods:Data of new cancer diagnoses and deaths from 2002 to 2017 were obtained from the Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention population-based cancer registry and Vital Statistics System.Cancer incidence and mortality stratified by year of diagnosis or death,gender and age group were analyzed.Number,proportion,crude rate,age-specific rate,age-standardized rate and others were calculated.The number,proportion and rates of common cancers in different groups were also calculated.Trends in age-standardized rate of incidence and death rates for all cancers combined and for the common cancer types by gender were estimated by joinpoint analysis and characterized by the annual percent change(APC)and average annual percent change(AAPC).Segi's 1960 world standard population was used for calculating age-standardized incidence and mortality. Results:The new cancer cases and deaths were 79 378 and 37 186 in Shanghai in 2017.The crude rate of incidence was 546.55/105,and the age-standardized rate was 246.31/105.The age-standardized rate of incidence was higher among females than among males.The crude rate of mortality was 256.04/1 05,and the age-standardized rate was 88.41/105.The age-standardized rate of mortality was higher among males than among females.The age-specific numbers and rates of incidence and mortality increased with age.The age-specific number and rate of incidence reached the peak at the age groups of 60-64 years and older than 85 years,and those of mortality among males reached the peak at the age groups of 60-64 years and older than 85 years,and those of mortality among females reached the peak at the age groups of older than 85 years,respectively.The sites of top 10 common cancer types sorted by the number of incidence cases among males were lung,colorectum,stomach,prostate,liver,thyroid,pancreas,bladder,kidney and oesophagus,and among females were lung,breast,thyroid,colorectum,stomach,pancreas,liver,brain,central nervous system(CNS),cervix uteri and gallbladder,the sites of those sorted by the number of deaths among males were lung,stomach,colorectum,liver,pancreas,prostate,oesophagus,bladder,lymphoma and gallbladder,among females were lung,colorectum,breast,stomach,pancreas,liver,gallbladder,brain,CNS,ovary and lymphoma.The top 10 common cancer types stratified by gender and the top 5 common cancer types stratified by common age groups merged of incidence and mortality had wide variations.Overall,the age-standardized rates of incidence were stable from 2002 to 2009,and increased 2.88％on average per year from 2009 to 201 7.The age-standardized rates of mortality were stable from 2002 to 2011,and decreased 2.66％on average per year from 2011 to 201 7.The trends differed by gender and cancer type. Conclusion:Lung cancer,colorectal cancer,pancreatic cancer,thyroid cancer,female breast cancer,cervical cancer and male prostate cancer are the most common cancers in Shanghai,the appropriate screening technical scheme should be formulated according to the current situation of malignant tumors in Shanghai,promote cancer opportunistic screening,promote appropriate technologies for intervention and management of cancer patients in the community,reduce the disease burden of malignant tumors.

Objective:To investigate the survival of cancer cases diagnosed during 2002-2013 in Shanghai. Methods:Data on new cancer cases with dead and follow-up information were obtained from the population-based cancer registry and vital statistics system of Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention.Survival indicators stratified by year of diagnosis,gender,site and age were analyzed.Number of cases and proportion were calculated.The observed survival rates were calculated based on the life table.The probabilities of surviving from 0 to 99 years old were estimated according to the Elandt-Johnson model,and then the cumulative expected survival rates were calculated according to the Ederer Ⅱ method.Finally,the relative survival rates and average annual percent changes of their trends were calculated.The age-standardized relative survival rates adjusted by International Cancer Survival Standard weights were calculated. Results:Total 644 520 new cancer cases were diagnosed during 2002-2013 in Shanghai,accounting for 643 545(99.85％)cases included in the observed cohort for survival analysis.The 5-year observed survival rate increased from 37.61％to 46.47％.The 5-year relative survival rate increased from 42.1 8％to 51.11％.The 5-year age-standardized relative survival rate increased from 40.57％to 49.80％.Among the 5-year relative survival rates of cases diagnosed during 2011 to 2013,99.43％of thyroid cancer was the highest,followed by female breast cancer(88.35％)and corpus uteri cancer(85.56％);5.87％of pancreas cancer was the lowest,followed by gallbladder cancer(13.64％)and oesophagus cancer(17.72％).the rate of lung cancer with the largest number of cases was 23.59％,followed by colorectal cancer(59.82％)and stomach cancer(38.65％).The 5-year relative survival rate of total cases of all sites increased from 40.55％in 2002 to 52.77％in 2013,with an average annual percent change of 2.40％.13 cancer types showed increasing trends,such as liver cancer and lung cancer,while the trends of other cancer types were not statistically significant,such as pancreatic cancer and gallbladder cancer. Conclusion:The diagnostic levels and survival rates of cancer cases have been improved continuously in Shanghai.The trends of different cancer types were varied.

Objective:To investigate the lung cancer incidence and mortality in 2016 and their trends from 2002 to 2016 in shanghai. Methods:The data of incidence and death on lung cancer in shanghai from 2002 to 2016 were obtained from the Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention population-based cancer registry and Vital Statistics System.Lung Cancer incidence and mortality stratified by age of diagnosis or death,gender and age-group were analyzed.The number of cases and deaths,proportion,crude rates,age-specific rates,age-standardized rates,corresponding truncated age-standardized rates(35-64 years)and cumulative rates were calculated.Segi's 1960 world standard population was used for calculating age-standardized rates of incidence and mortality as well as truncated age-standardized rates.Trends in age-standardized rates of incidence and death for lung cancer in Shanghai from 2002-2016 were estimated by Joinpoint analysis and characterized by the annual percent change(APC). Results:The new lung cancer cases and deaths were 14 395 and 9 170 in Shanghai in 2016.The crude rate of incidence was 99.41/105,and the age-standardized rate of incidence was 39.76/105.New cases of lung cancer accounted for 19.34％of all malignant tumors in shanghai,ranking the first in the incidence spectrum of malignant tumors.The crude rate of mortality was 63.33/105,and the age-standardized rate was 21.57/105.Deaths of lung cancer accounted for 24.78％of all malignant tumor deaths in shanghai,ranking the first in the mortality spectrum of malignant tumors.The age-standardized rates of incidence and mortality for males were higher than those for females.The age-specific numbers and rates of incidence and mortality increased with age.The age-specific number and rate of incidence reached the peak at the age group of 60-64 years and 80-84 years respectively,and those of mortality peaked at the age group of 80-84 years and older than 85 years respectively.The incidence of lung cancer increased from 33.70/105 in 2002 to 39.76/1 05 in 2016 in Shanghai.Joinpoint analyses showed that the age-standardized rate of lung cancer incidence remained stable from 2002 to 2010(APC=-0.79,t=-1.46,P=0.175)but showed a significant upward trend with an average annual increase rate of 5.12％from 2010 to 2016(APC=5.12,t=6.97,P＜0.001).The standardized mortality showed a downward trend with an average annual decrease rate of 0.87％from 2002 to 2016(APC=-0.87,t=-2.87,P=0.013). Conclusion:The incidence of lung cancer in Shanghai during 2002-2016 presented an upward trend while the mortality of lung cancer showed a gradual downward trend.There are differences in the incidence and mortality of lung cancer among different gender and age groups.

Objective:To investigate the liver cancer incidence and mortality in 2016 and their trends during 2002 through 2016 in Shanghai. Methods:Data on new liver cancer diagnoses and deaths during 2002 through 2016 were obtained from the Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention population-based cancer registry and Vital Statistics System,the numbers,crude rates and age-standardized rates of incidence and mortality of liver cancer were calculated.Segi's 1960 world standard population was used to calculate age-standardized rates.Joinpoint analysis was used to analyze the trend changes and to estimate the annual percent change of incidence and mortality rates. Results:There were 3 842 new liver cancer cases in Shanghai in 201 6,69.44％of which were males,and 3 275 deaths of liver cancer,69.44％of which were males.Mortality to incidence ratio was 0.85.The crude rate of incidence was 26.53/105,and the age-standardized rate was 10.60/105.The crude rate of mortality was 22.62/105,and the age-standardized rate was 8.65/105.The Sex ratios for age-standardized incidence and mortality were 2.91∶1 and 2.97∶1,respectively.The age-specific numbers and rates of incidence and mortality increased with age.Overall,the age-standardized rate of incidence of liver cancer was decreased 3.69％on average per year during 2002 through 2016,and the age-standardized rate of mortality of liver cancer was decreased 3.82％on average per year. Conclusion:The incidence and mortality of liver cancer in Shanghai have been remarkably decreased to a low level countrywide,while liver cancer is still one of the leading malignancies and it brings serious threat to public health,comprehensive prevention and control efforts should be strengthened according to its epidemic characteristics and risk factors.