1.Explainable machine learning model for predicting septic shock in critically sepsis patients based on coagulation indexes: A multicenter cohort study.
Qing-Bo ZENG ; En-Lan PENG ; Ye ZHOU ; Qing-Wei LIN ; Lin-Cui ZHONG ; Long-Ping HE ; Nian-Qing ZHANG ; Jing-Chun SONG
Chinese Journal of Traumatology 2025;28(6):404-411
PURPOSE:
Septic shock is associated with high mortality and poor outcomes among sepsis patients with coagulopathy. Although traditional statistical methods or machine learning (ML) algorithms have been proposed to predict septic shock, these potential approaches have never been systematically compared. The present work aimed to develop and compare models to predict septic shock among patients with sepsis.
METHODS:
It is a retrospective cohort study based on 484 patients with sepsis who were admitted to our intensive care units between May 2018 and November 2022. Patients from the 908th Hospital of Chinese PLA Logistical Support Force and Nanchang Hongdu Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine were respectively allocated to training (n=311) and validation (n=173) sets. All clinical and laboratory data of sepsis patients characterized by comprehensive coagulation indexes were collected. We developed 5 models based on ML algorithms and 1 model based on a traditional statistical method to predict septic shock in the training cohort. The performance of all models was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and calibration plots. Decision curve analysis was used to evaluate the net benefit of the models. The validation set was applied to verify the predictive accuracy of the models. This study also used Shapley additive explanations method to assess variable importance and explain the prediction made by a ML algorithm.
RESULTS:
Among all patients, 37.2% experienced septic shock. The characteristic curves of the 6 models ranged from 0.833 to 0.962 and 0.630 to 0.744 in the training and validation sets, respectively. The model with the best prediction performance was based on the support vector machine (SVM) algorithm, which was constructed by age, tissue plasminogen activator-inhibitor complex, prothrombin time, international normalized ratio, white blood cells, and platelet counts. The SVM model showed good calibration and discrimination and a greater net benefit in decision curve analysis.
CONCLUSION
The SVM algorithm may be superior to other ML and traditional statistical algorithms for predicting septic shock. Physicians can better understand the reliability of the predictive model by Shapley additive explanations value analysis.
Humans
;
Shock, Septic/blood*
;
Machine Learning
;
Male
;
Female
;
Retrospective Studies
;
Middle Aged
;
Aged
;
Sepsis/complications*
;
ROC Curve
;
Cohort Studies
;
Adult
;
Intensive Care Units
;
Algorithms
;
Blood Coagulation
;
Critical Illness
2.Characteristics of Gut Microbiota Changes and Their Relationship with Infectious Complications During Induction Chemotherapy in AML Patients.
Quan-Lei ZHANG ; Li-Li DONG ; Lin-Lin ZHANG ; Yu-Juan WU ; Meng LI ; Jian BO ; Li-Li WANG ; Yu JING ; Li-Ping DOU ; Dai-Hong LIU ; Zhen-Yang GU ; Chun-Ji GAO
Journal of Experimental Hematology 2025;33(3):738-744
OBJECTIVE:
To investigate the characteristics of gut microbiota changes in patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) undergoing induction chemotherapy and to explore the relationship between infectious complications and gut microbiota.
METHODS:
Fecal samples were collected from 37 newly diagnosed AML patients at four time points: before induction chemotherapy, during chemotherapy, during the neutropenic phase, and during the recovery phase. Metagenomic sequencing was used to analyze the dynamic changes in gut microbiota. Correlation analyses were conducted to assess the relationship between changes in gut microbiota and the occurrence of infectious complications.
RESULTS:
During chemotherapy, the gut microbiota α-diversity (Shannon index) of AML patients exhibited significant fluctuations. Specifically, the diversity decreased significantly during induction chemotherapy, further declined during the neutropenic phase (P < 0.05, compared to baseline), and gradually recovered during the recovery phase, though not fully returning to baseline levels.The abundances of beneficial bacteria, such as Firmicutes and Bacteroidetes, gradually decreased during chemotherapy, whereas the abundances of opportunistic pathogens, including Enterococcus, Klebsiella, and Escherichia coli, progressively increased.Analysis of the dynamic changes in gut microbiota of seven patients with bloodstream infections revealed that the bloodstream infection pathogens could be detected in the gut microbiota of the corresponding patients, with their abundance gradually increasing during the course of infection. This finding suggests that bloodstream infections may be associated with opportunistic pathogens originating from the gut microbiota.Compared to non-infected patients, the baseline samples of infected patients showed a significantly lower relative abundance of Bacteroidetes (P < 0.05). Regression analysis indicated that Bacteroidetes abundance is an independent predictive factor for infectious complications (P < 0.05, OR =13.143).
CONCLUSION
During induction chemotherapy in AML patients, gut microbiota α-diversity fluctuates significantly, and the abundance of opportunistic pathogens increase, which may be associated with bloodstream infections. Patients with lower baseline Bacteroidetes abundance are more prone to infections, and its abundance can serve as an independent predictor of infectious complications.
Humans
;
Gastrointestinal Microbiome
;
Leukemia, Myeloid, Acute/microbiology*
;
Induction Chemotherapy
;
Feces/microbiology*
;
Male
;
Female
;
Middle Aged
3.Comparison of Logistic Regression and Machine Learning Approaches in Predicting Depressive Symptoms: A National-Based Study
Xing-Xuan DONG ; Jian-Hua LIU ; Tian-Yang ZHANG ; Chen-Wei PAN ; Chun-Hua ZHAO ; Yi-Bo WU ; Dan-Dan CHEN
Psychiatry Investigation 2025;22(3):267-278
Objective:
Machine learning (ML) has been reported to have better predictive capability than traditional statistical techniques. The aim of this study was to assess the efficacy of ML algorithms and logistic regression (LR) for predicting depressive symptoms during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Methods:
Analyses were carried out in a national cross-sectional study involving 21,916 participants. The ML algorithms in this study included random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), neural network (NN), and gradient boosting machine (GBM) methods. The performance indices were sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, precision, F1-score, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).
Results:
LR and NN had the best performance in terms of AUCs. The risk of overfitting was found to be negligible for most ML models except for RF, and GBM obtained the highest sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, precision, and F1-score. Therefore, LR, NN, and GBM models ranked among the best models.
Conclusion
Compared with ML models, LR model performed comparably to ML models in predicting depressive symptoms and identifying potential risk factors while also exhibiting a lower risk of overfitting.
4.Comparison of Logistic Regression and Machine Learning Approaches in Predicting Depressive Symptoms: A National-Based Study
Xing-Xuan DONG ; Jian-Hua LIU ; Tian-Yang ZHANG ; Chen-Wei PAN ; Chun-Hua ZHAO ; Yi-Bo WU ; Dan-Dan CHEN
Psychiatry Investigation 2025;22(3):267-278
Objective:
Machine learning (ML) has been reported to have better predictive capability than traditional statistical techniques. The aim of this study was to assess the efficacy of ML algorithms and logistic regression (LR) for predicting depressive symptoms during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Methods:
Analyses were carried out in a national cross-sectional study involving 21,916 participants. The ML algorithms in this study included random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), neural network (NN), and gradient boosting machine (GBM) methods. The performance indices were sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, precision, F1-score, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).
Results:
LR and NN had the best performance in terms of AUCs. The risk of overfitting was found to be negligible for most ML models except for RF, and GBM obtained the highest sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, precision, and F1-score. Therefore, LR, NN, and GBM models ranked among the best models.
Conclusion
Compared with ML models, LR model performed comparably to ML models in predicting depressive symptoms and identifying potential risk factors while also exhibiting a lower risk of overfitting.
5.Comparison of Logistic Regression and Machine Learning Approaches in Predicting Depressive Symptoms: A National-Based Study
Xing-Xuan DONG ; Jian-Hua LIU ; Tian-Yang ZHANG ; Chen-Wei PAN ; Chun-Hua ZHAO ; Yi-Bo WU ; Dan-Dan CHEN
Psychiatry Investigation 2025;22(3):267-278
Objective:
Machine learning (ML) has been reported to have better predictive capability than traditional statistical techniques. The aim of this study was to assess the efficacy of ML algorithms and logistic regression (LR) for predicting depressive symptoms during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Methods:
Analyses were carried out in a national cross-sectional study involving 21,916 participants. The ML algorithms in this study included random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), neural network (NN), and gradient boosting machine (GBM) methods. The performance indices were sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, precision, F1-score, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).
Results:
LR and NN had the best performance in terms of AUCs. The risk of overfitting was found to be negligible for most ML models except for RF, and GBM obtained the highest sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, precision, and F1-score. Therefore, LR, NN, and GBM models ranked among the best models.
Conclusion
Compared with ML models, LR model performed comparably to ML models in predicting depressive symptoms and identifying potential risk factors while also exhibiting a lower risk of overfitting.
6.Comparison of Logistic Regression and Machine Learning Approaches in Predicting Depressive Symptoms: A National-Based Study
Xing-Xuan DONG ; Jian-Hua LIU ; Tian-Yang ZHANG ; Chen-Wei PAN ; Chun-Hua ZHAO ; Yi-Bo WU ; Dan-Dan CHEN
Psychiatry Investigation 2025;22(3):267-278
Objective:
Machine learning (ML) has been reported to have better predictive capability than traditional statistical techniques. The aim of this study was to assess the efficacy of ML algorithms and logistic regression (LR) for predicting depressive symptoms during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Methods:
Analyses were carried out in a national cross-sectional study involving 21,916 participants. The ML algorithms in this study included random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), neural network (NN), and gradient boosting machine (GBM) methods. The performance indices were sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, precision, F1-score, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).
Results:
LR and NN had the best performance in terms of AUCs. The risk of overfitting was found to be negligible for most ML models except for RF, and GBM obtained the highest sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, precision, and F1-score. Therefore, LR, NN, and GBM models ranked among the best models.
Conclusion
Compared with ML models, LR model performed comparably to ML models in predicting depressive symptoms and identifying potential risk factors while also exhibiting a lower risk of overfitting.
7.Research Advances of Deep Learning-based Raman Spectroscopy and Their Application in Detection of Microplastics
Yong-Hui HAN ; Chun-Bo SHI ; Wang LIANG ; Xiao-Yue ZHANG ; Jian-Sheng CUI ; Bo YAO
Chinese Journal of Analytical Chemistry 2025;53(2):153-163
Microplastics are widely present in various environments such as water bodies,land,and atmosphere,which pose threats to the ecological environment and human health through transmission and accumulation in the food chain.The existing detection techniques for microplastics face challenges such as complex preparation procedure of samples,low efficiency in processing large batches of samples,and difficulties in handling complex samples.Therefore,there is an urgent need for rapid and efficient detection techniques suitable for complex microplastics samples in the field of environmental monitoring.Raman spectroscopy,known for its advantages such as rapidity,accuracy,high sensitivity,non-destructiveness,and non-contact,demonstrates great application potential in detection of microplastics.Deep learning,an artificial intelligence method known for its large-scale data processing,nonlinear modeling and automatic feature extraction capabilities,is receiving increasing attention in the analysis of Raman spectroscopy signals.The application of deep learning-based Raman spectroscopy has significantly improved performance indicators such as detection efficiency and accuracy.This article introduced the existing Raman enhancement techniques,summarized the deep learning methods applied in Raman spectroscopy signal analysis,reviewed the recent research and application progress of deep learning-based Raman spectroscopy in detection of microplastics,and finally discussed the challenges and future prospects of deep learning-based Raman spectroscopy in detection of microplastics.
8.Atomic Fluorescence Dispersion Detection Technique Based on Area Array Single Photon Counting Imaging Detector
Chen TAO ; Hong-Ji ZHANG ; Chun-Sheng LI ; Ling-Ping HE ; Zhen-Yu MA ; Bo CHEN ; Ran ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Analytical Chemistry 2025;53(2):187-194
The single photon counting imaging detector based on microchannel plate(MCP)has the characteristics of high sensitivity and low dark count rate,and has been applied to the optical remote sensing detection of weak ultraviolet spectral signals in space.In this work,by using planar array single photon counting imaging detector as the detector,flat-field concave grating as the splitter,and electrodeless discharge lamp(EDL)as the excitation light source,a dispersion detection system suitable for hydride generation-atomic fluorescence spectrometry(HG-AFS)was developed.The wavelength calibration of the system was carried out,and the negative high pressure and EDL stability time of the planar array single photon counting imaging detector were analyzed and optimized.The characteristic emission spectral lines of As and Bi elements excited in the wavelength range of 180-320 nm were analyzed,and the scattering interference in the wavelength range of 257.3-306.7 nm was discussed.The results showed that the AFS dispersion detection system based on the planar array single photon counting imaging detector could detect and analyze the HG-AFS fluorescence signal initially,and the influence of scattering interference on the detection results was effectively avoided.The system had the advantages including simple structure,no refrigeration and temperature control,no moving parts and simultaneous measurement of multi-band.
9.Clinical course, causes of worsening, and outcomes of severe ischemic stroke: A prospective multicenter cohort study.
Simiao WU ; Yanan WANG ; Ruozhen YUAN ; Meng LIU ; Xing HUA ; Linrui HUANG ; Fuqiang GUO ; Dongdong YANG ; Zuoxiao LI ; Bihua WU ; Chun WANG ; Jingfeng DUAN ; Tianjin LING ; Hao ZHANG ; Shihong ZHANG ; Bo WU ; Cairong ZHU ; Craig S ANDERSON ; Ming LIU
Chinese Medical Journal 2025;138(13):1578-1586
BACKGROUND:
Severe stroke has high rates of mortality and morbidity. This study aimed to investigate the clinical course, causes of worsening, and outcomes of severe ischemic stroke.
METHODS:
This prospective, multicenter cohort study enrolled adult patients admitted ≤30 days after ischemic stroke from nine hospitals in China between September 2017 and December 2019. Severe stroke was defined as a score of ≥15 on the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS). Clinical worsening was defined as an increase of 4 in the NIHSS score from baseline. Unfavorable functional outcome was defined as a modified Rankin scale score ≥3 at 3 months and 1 year after stroke onset, respectively. We performed Logistic regression to explore baseline features and reperfusion therapies associated with clinical worsening and functional outcomes.
RESULTS:
Among 4201 patients enrolled, 854 patients (20.33%) had severe stroke on admission. Of 3347 patients without severe stroke on admission, 142 (4.24%) patients developed severe stroke in hospital. Of 854 patients with severe stroke on admission, 33.95% (290/854) experienced clinical worsening (median time from stroke onset: 43 h, Q1-Q3: 20-88 h), with brain edema (54.83% [159/290]) as the leading cause; 24.59% (210/854) of these patients died by 30 days, and 81.47% (677/831) and 78.44% (633/807) had unfavorable functional outcomes at 3 months and 1 year respectively. Reperfusion reduced the risk of worsening (adjusted odds ratio [OR]: 0.24, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.12-0.49, P <0.01), 30-day death (adjusted OR: 0.22, 95% CI: 0.11-0.41, P <0.01), and unfavorable functional outcomes at 3 months (adjusted OR: 0.24, 95% CI: 0.08-0.68, P <0.01) and 1 year (adjusted OR: 0.17, 95% CI: 0.06-0.50, P <0.01).
CONCLUSIONS:
Approximately one-fifth of patients with ischemic stroke had severe neurological deficits on admission. Clinical worsening mainly occurred in the first 3 to 4 days after stroke onset, with brain edema as the leading cause of worsening. Reperfusion reduced the risk of clinical worsening and improved functional outcomes.
REGISTRATION
ClinicalTrials.gov , NCT03222024.
Humans
;
Male
;
Female
;
Prospective Studies
;
Ischemic Stroke/mortality*
;
Aged
;
Middle Aged
;
Aged, 80 and over
;
Stroke
;
Brain Ischemia
10.Relationship between depression and sexual drug use in men who have sex with men in Chengdu
Ruiwen LIU ; Yang ZHU ; Bo ZHANG ; Xiaoting CHEN ; Chun HAO ; Jing GU ; Jinghua LI ; Wangnan CAO ; Fengsu HOU
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2025;46(3):462-468
Objective:To investigate the prevalence of sexual drug use in men who have sex with men (MSM) in Chengdu and analyze the relationship between depression and sexual drug use.Methods:A total of 1 277 MSM were recruited between November 2021 and May 2022. Questionnaire was used to collect information about their demographic characteristics, depression status and sexual drug use behavior. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to analyze the relationship between depression and sexual drug use.Results:In the 1 277 MSM, assessment identified 503 mild depression cases (39.4%), 196 moderate depression cases (15.3%) and 171 severe depression cases (13.4%) and 444 MSM (34.8%) reported sexual drug use in the past 6 months. Multivariate logistic regression models showed that compared with non-depression, mild depression (a OR=1.67,95% CI:1.24-2.23), moderate depression (a OR=1.50,95% CI: 1.02-2.19) and severe depression (a OR=1.56,95% CI:1.04-2.32) were positively associated with sexual drug use. Conclusions:The prevalence of depression and sexual drug use were high in MSM in Chengdu. There was a positive correlation between depression and sexual drug use. It is necessary to pay close attention to depression and sexual drug use and conduct targeted intervention in MSM.

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