1.Quality evaluation of Xinjiang Rehmannia glutinosa and Rehmannia glutinosa based on fingerprint and multi-component quantification combined with chemical pattern recognition.
Pan-Ying REN ; Wei ZHANG ; Xue LIU ; Juan ZHANG ; Cheng-Fu SU ; Hai-Yan GONG ; Chun-Jing YANG ; Jing-Wei LEI ; Su-Qing ZHI ; Cai-Xia XIE
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(16):4630-4640
The differences in chemical quality characteristics between Xinjiang Rehmannia glutinosa and R. glutinosa were analyzed to provide a theoretical basis for the introduction and quality control of R. glutinosa. In this study, the high performance liquid chromatography(HPLC) fingerprints of 6 batches of Xinjiang R. glutinosa and 10 batches of R. glutinosa samples were established. The content of iridoid glycosides, phenylethanoid glycosides, monosaccharides, oligosaccharides, and polysaccharides in Xinjiang R. glutinosa and R. glutinosa was determined by high performance liquid chromatography-diode array detection(HPLC-DAD), high performance liquid chromatography-evaporative light scattering detection(HPLC-ELSD), and ultraviolet-visible spectroscopy(UV-Vis). The determination results were analyzed with by chemical pattern recognition and entropy weight TOPSIS method. The results showed that there were 19 common peaks in the HPLC fingerprints of the 16 batches of R. glutinosa, and catalpol, aucubin, rehmannioside D, rehmannioside A, hydroxytyrosol, leonuride, salidroside, cistanoside A, and verbascoside were identified. Hierarchical cluster analysis(HCA) and principal component analysis(PCA) showed that Qinyang R. glutinosa, Mengzhou R. glutinosa, and Xinjiang R. glutinosa were grouped into three different categories, and eight common components causing the chemical quality difference between Xinjiang R. glutinosa and R. glutinosa in Mengzhou and Qinyang of Henan province were screened out by orthogonal partial least squares discriminant analysis(OPLS-DA). The results of content determination showed that there were glucose, sucrose, raffinose, stachyose, polysaccharides, and nine glycosides in Xinjiang R. glutinosa and R. glutinosa samples, and the content of catalpol, rehmannioside A, leonuride, cistanoside A, verbascoside, sucrose, and glucose was significantly different between Xinjiang R. glutinosa and R. glutinosa. The analysis with entropy weight TOPSIS method showed that the comprehensive quality of R. glutinosa in Mengzhou and Qinyang of Henan province was better than that of Xinjiang R. glutinosa. In conclusion, the types of main chemical components of R. glutinosa and Xinjiang R. glutinosa were the same, but their content was different. The chemical quality of R. glutinosa was better than Xinjiang R. glutinosa, and other components in R. glutinosa from two producing areas and their effects need further study.
Rehmannia/classification*
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Drugs, Chinese Herbal/chemistry*
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Chromatography, High Pressure Liquid/methods*
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Quality Control
2.Additional role of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol on the risk of osteoporosis in men with or without coronary heart disease: a real-world longitudinal study.
Jing ZENG ; Zi-Mo PAN ; Ting LI ; Ze-Yu CHEN ; Xiao-Yan CAI ; Mei-Liang GONG ; Xin-Li DENG ; Sheng-Shu WANG ; Nan LI ; Miao LIU ; Chun-Lin LI
Journal of Geriatric Cardiology 2025;22(2):219-228
BACKGROUND:
Early control of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) is crucial for reducing the progress of cardiovascular disease. However, its additional role to the risk of primary osteoporosis in men with coronary heart disease was inconclusive. Our study aims to determine the association of LDL-C and its trajectories for osteoporosis risk in the middle-aged and aged men of China.
METHODS:
The retrospective cohort study of 1546 men aged 69.74 ± 11.30 years conducted in Beijing, China from 2015 to 2022. And the incidence of primary osteoporosis was annually recorded. LDL-C trajectories were further identified by latent class growth model using repeated measurements of LDL-C. The association of baseline LDL-C for osteoporosis was estimated using hazard ratio (HR) with 95% CI in Cox proportional hazard model, while mean level and trajectories of LDL-C for osteoporosis were evaluated using odds ratio (OR) with 95% CI in logistic regression model.
RESULTS:
During the median 6.2-year follow-up period, 70 men developed primary osteoporosis. The higher level of baseline LDL-C (HR = 1.539, 95% CI: 1.012-2.342) and mean LDL-C (OR = 2.190, 95% CI: 1.443-3.324) were associated with higher risk of osteoporosis in men with coronary heart disease after adjusted for covariates. Compared with those in the LDL-C trajectory of low-stable decrease, participants with medium-fluctuant trajectory, whose longitudinal LDL-C started with a medium LDL-C level and appeared an increase and then decrease, were negatively associated with osteoporosis risk (OR = 2.451, 95% CI: 1.152-5.216). And participants with initially high LDL-C level and then a rapid decrease demonstrated a tendency towards reduced risk (OR = 0.718, 95% CI: 0.212-2.437).
CONCLUSIONS
Elevated LDL-C level and its long-term fluctuation may increase the risk of primary osteoporosis in men. Early controlling a stable level of LDL-C is also essential for bone health.
3.Glucocorticoid Discontinuation in Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis under Background of Chinese Medicine: Challenges and Potentials Coexist.
Chuan-Hui YAO ; Chi ZHANG ; Meng-Ge SONG ; Cong-Min XIA ; Tian CHANG ; Xie-Li MA ; Wei-Xiang LIU ; Zi-Xia LIU ; Jia-Meng LIU ; Xiao-Po TANG ; Ying LIU ; Jian LIU ; Jiang-Yun PENG ; Dong-Yi HE ; Qing-Chun HUANG ; Ming-Li GAO ; Jian-Ping YU ; Wei LIU ; Jian-Yong ZHANG ; Yue-Lan ZHU ; Xiu-Juan HOU ; Hai-Dong WANG ; Yong-Fei FANG ; Yue WANG ; Yin SU ; Xin-Ping TIAN ; Ai-Ping LYU ; Xun GONG ; Quan JIANG
Chinese journal of integrative medicine 2025;31(7):581-589
OBJECTIVE:
To evaluate the dynamic changes of glucocorticoid (GC) dose and the feasibility of GC discontinuation in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients under the background of Chinese medicine (CM).
METHODS:
This multicenter retrospective cohort study included 1,196 RA patients enrolled in the China Rheumatoid Arthritis Registry of Patients with Chinese Medicine (CERTAIN) from September 1, 2019 to December 4, 2023, who initiated GC therapy. Participants were divided into the Western medicine (WM) and integrative medicine (IM, combination of CM and WM) groups based on medication regimen. Follow-up was performed at least every 3 months to assess dynamic changes in GC dose. Changes in GC dose were analyzed by generalized estimator equation, the probability of GC discontinuation was assessed using Kaplan-Meier curve, and predictors of GC discontinuation were analyzed by Cox regression. Patients with <12 months of follow-up were excluded for the sensitivity analysis.
RESULTS:
Among 1,196 patients (85.4% female; median age 56.4 years), 880 (73.6%) received IM. Over a median 12-month follow-up, 34.3% (410 cases) discontinued GC, with significantly higher rates in the IM group (40.8% vs. 16.1% in WM; P<0.05). GC dose declined progressively, with IM patients demonstrating faster reductions (median 3.75 mg vs. 5.00 mg in WM at 12 months; P<0.05). Multivariate Cox analysis identified age <60 years [P<0.001, hazard ratios (HR)=2.142, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.523-3.012], IM therapy (P=0.001, HR=2.175, 95% CI: 1.369-3.456), baseline GC dose ⩽7.5 mg (P=0.003, HR=1.637, 95% CI: 1.177-2.275), and absence of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs use (P=0.001, HR=2.546, 95% CI: 1.432-4.527) as significant predictors of GC discontinuation. Sensitivity analysis (545 cases) confirmed these findings.
CONCLUSIONS
RA patients receiving CM face difficulties in following guideline-recommended GC discontinuation protocols. IM can promote GC discontinuation and is a promising strategy to reduce GC dependency in RA management. (Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, No. NCT05219214).
Adult
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Aged
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Female
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Humans
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Male
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Middle Aged
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Arthritis, Rheumatoid/drug therapy*
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Glucocorticoids/therapeutic use*
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Medicine, Chinese Traditional
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Retrospective Studies
4.Current status and influencing factors of care burden in informal caregivers of patients with pressure injuries.
Chunhong RUAN ; Lian MAO ; Jing LU ; Xuan YANG ; Chun SHENG ; Bo LI ; Lina GONG
Journal of Central South University(Medical Sciences) 2025;50(7):1234-1243
OBJECTIVES:
With the accelerating aging of the population and the rising prevalence of chronic diseases, the number of patients with pressure injuries (PIs) has increased markedly, prolonging the period of disease-related care. Informal caregivers play a critical role in the daily care of patients with pressure injuries, and their care burden has become increasingly prominent. This study aims to investigate the current status and influencing factors of care burden among informal caregivers of patients with PIs, providing evidence for targeted intervention strategies.
METHODS:
A total of 170 informal caregivers of patients with PIs were selected by convenience sampling from the Third Xiangya Hospital of Central South University. General demographic and clinical data of both patients and caregivers were collected. The Zarit Caregiver Burden Inventory (ZBI), Knowledge-Attitude-Practice Scale for Informal Caregivers of Patients with PIs, General Self-Efficacy Scale (GSES), and Family Caregiver Task Inventory (FCTI) were used to assess caregiving burden, knowledge-attitude-practice level, self-efficacy, and caregiving ability, respectively. Pearson correlation analysis was conducted to evaluate relationships among ZBI, Knowledge-Attitude-Practice Scale for Informal Caregivers of Patients with PIs, GSES, and FCTI scores. Stepwise multiple linear regression analysis was used to identify factors influencing caregiving.
RESULTS:
Among the 170 patients with pressure injuries, the age was (65.52±15.88) years; 118 (69.41%) were male and 52 (30.59%) were female. The duration of PIs was less than 1 month in 108 (63.53%) cases and 1 to 6 months in 40 cases (23.53%). Stage II injuries were predominant (135 cases, 79.41%). A total of 193 pressure injury sites were recorded, most commonly located at the sacrococcygeal region (127 sites, 65.80%), followed by the head (3 sites, 1.55%), shoulder and back (9 sites, 4.66%), feet (24 sites, 12.44%), and other regions (30 sites, 15.55%). Informal caregivers were 48.82% aged 46 to 59 years, 54.71% female, 41.77% primarily spouses and 47.06% children of the patients, and 77.06% lived with the patients. Caregivers who received assistance from others or had higher family per-capita monthly income reported significantly lower caregiver burden scores than those without assistance or with lower income (all P<0.001). The total ZBI score was 50.89±14.95, indicating a moderate burden. The total scores of the Knowledge-Attitude-Practice Scale for Informal Caregivers, GSES, and FCTI were 50.61±7.22, 26.03±7.11, and 14.76±8.70, respectively. Pearson correlation analysis revealed that ZBI scores were correlated with scores on the Knowledge-Attitude-Practice Scale for Informal Caregivers of Patients with PIs (r=-0.543, P<0.001), GSES scores (r=-0.545, P<0.001), and FCTI scores (r=0.800, P<0.001). The scores on Knowledge-Attitude-Practice Scale for Informal Caregivers of patients with PIs were correlated with GSES scores (r=0.500, P<0.001) and FCTI scores (r=-0.461, P<0.001); GSES scores was negatively correlated with FCTI scores (r=-0.415, P<0.001). Stepwise multiple linear regression analysis showed that assistance availability, family per-capita monthly income, total scores on the Knowledge-Attitude-Practice Scale for Informal Caregivers of Patients with PIs, total GSES score, and total FCTI score were the main influencing factors of caregiver burden, jointly explaining 79.38% of its variance.
CONCLUSIONS
The main factors influencing the caregiving burden of informal caregivers of patients with PIs include the availability of assistance, family per-capita monthly income, total score on the Knowledge-Attitude-Practice Scale for Informal Caregivers of PI patients, total score on the GSES, and total score on the FCTI. Developing targeted intervention strategies addressing these factors may help alleviate the caregiving burden among informal caregivers of patients with PIs.
Humans
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Caregivers/psychology*
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Pressure Ulcer/nursing*
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Female
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Male
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Middle Aged
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Cost of Illness
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Adult
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Aged
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Surveys and Questionnaires
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Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice
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Self Efficacy
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Caregiver Burden
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China
5.Temporal-spatial Generation of Astrocytes in the Developing Diencephalon.
Wentong HONG ; Pifang GONG ; Xinjie PAN ; Zhonggan REN ; Yitong LIU ; Guibo QI ; Jun-Liszt LI ; Wenzhi SUN ; Woo-Ping GE ; Chun-Li ZHANG ; Shumin DUAN ; Song QIN
Neuroscience Bulletin 2024;40(1):1-16
Astrocytes are the largest glial population in the mammalian brain. However, we have a minimal understanding of astrocyte development, especially fate specification in different regions of the brain. Through lineage tracing of the progenitors of the third ventricle (3V) wall via in-utero electroporation in the embryonic mouse brain, we show the fate specification and migration pattern of astrocytes derived from radial glia along the 3V wall. Unexpectedly, radial glia located in different regions along the 3V wall of the diencephalon produce distinct cell types: radial glia in the upper region produce astrocytes and those in the lower region produce neurons in the diencephalon. With genetic fate mapping analysis, we reveal that the first population of astrocytes appears along the zona incerta in the diencephalon. Astrogenesis occurs at an early time point in the dorsal region relative to that in the ventral region of the developing diencephalon. With transcriptomic analysis of the region-specific 3V wall and lateral ventricle (LV) wall, we identified cohorts of differentially-expressed genes in the dorsal 3V wall compared to the ventral 3V wall and LV wall that may regulate astrogenesis in the dorsal diencephalon. Together, these results demonstrate that the generation of astrocytes shows a spatiotemporal pattern in the developing mouse diencephalon.
Mice
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Animals
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Astrocytes
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Neuroglia/physiology*
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Diencephalon
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Brain
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Neurons
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Mammals
6.Survey on medical waste disposal in medical and healthcare institutions in Hefei City
Jiao WANG ; Chun GONG ; Yunfeng LIANG
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine 2024;36(9):920-924
ObjectiveTo investigate the production, disposal, and disinfection management of medical waste in medical and healthcare institutions in Hefei City, so as to provide a basis for further improving the disposal work of medical waste in the city's medical and healthcare institutions. MethodsA stratified random sampling method was used to assess the current status of medical waste generation, disposal, and disinfection management in 145 medical and healthcare institutions in Hefei. ResultsThe daily disposal volume of medical waste in the 145 medical and healthcare institutions was 7 511.99 kg, of which the total daily production volume of medical waste in tertiary hospitals, secondary hospitals, primary hospitals, and ungraded medical and healthcare institutions were 4 686.37, 2 200.95, 418.40, and 206.27 kg, respectively. The medical waste production coefficients per bed were 0.40, 0.40, 0.33, and 0.27 kg·day⁻¹, respectively. The percentages of tertiary hospitals, secondary hospitals, primary hospitals and ungraded medical and healthcare institutions that had set up independent temporary storage rooms for medical waste were 100.0% (15/15), 97.4% (38/39), 100.0%(25/25), and 80.3% (53/66), respectively, and the proportions of timely transfer of medical waste were 100.0% (15/15), 97.4% (38/39) , 92.0% (23/25) , 72.7% (48/66), respectively, with statistically significant differences (χ2=12.046 and 15.507, both P<0.01). ConclusionThe management of medical waste in primary medical and health institutions is weak, with lower rates of the setting up independent medical waste storage rooms and timely transfer of medical waste. Training and supervision should be strengthened to promote the establishment of a system for medical waste management at the grassroots level.
7.Discussion on the Pathogenesis of Osteonecrosis of the Femoral Head Under the System of Non-uniform Settlement During Bone Resorption and Multidimensional Composite Bowstring Working in Coordination with the Theory of Liver-Kidney and Muscle-Bone Based on the Concept of Liver and Kidney Sharing the Common Source
Gui-Xin ZHANG ; Feng YANG ; Le ZHANG ; Jie LIU ; Zhi-Jian CHEN ; Lei PENG ; En-Long FU ; Shu-Hua LIU ; Chang-De WANG ; Chun-Zhu GONG
Journal of Guangzhou University of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2024;41(1):239-246
From the perspective of the physiological basis of liver and kidney sharing the common source in traditional Chinese medicine(TCM),and by integrating the theory of kidney dominating bone,liver dominating tendon,and meridian sinew of TCM as well as the bone resorption and collapse theory,and non-uniform settlement theory and lower-limb musculoskeletal bowstring structure theory of modern orthopedics,the pathogenesis of osteonecrosis of the femoral head(ONFH)under the system of non-uniform settlement during bone resorption and multidimensional composite bowstring working in coordination with the theory of liver-kidney and muscle-bone was explored.The key to the TCM pathogenesis of ONFH lies in the deficiency of the liver and kidney,and then the imbalance of kidney yin-yang leads to the disruption of the dynamic balance of bone formation and bone resorption mediated by osteoblasts-osteoclasts,which manifests as the elevated level of bone metabolism and the enhancement of focal bone resorption in the femoral head,and then leads to the necrosis and collapse of the femoral head.It is considered that the kidney dominates bone,liver dominates tendon,and the tendon and bone together constitute the muscle-bone-joint dynamic and static system of the hip joint.The appearance of collapse destroys the originally balanced muscle-bone-joint system.Moreover,the failure of liver blood in the nourishment of muscles and tendons further exacerbates the imbalance of the soft tissues around the hip joint,accelerates the collapse of the muscle-bone-joint dynamic and static system,speeds up the process of femoral head collapse,and ultimately results in irreversible outcomes.Based on the above pathogenesis,the systematic integrative treatment of ONFH should be based on the TCM holistic concept,focuses on the focal improvement of internal and external blood circulation of the femoral head by various approaches,so as to rebuild the coordination of joint function.Moreover,attention should be paid to the physical constitution of the patients,and therapy of tonifying the kidney and regulating the liver can be used to restore the balance between osteogenesis and osteoblastogenesis,and to reconstruct the muscle-bone-joint system,so as to effectively delay or even prevent the occurrence of ONFH.
8.Effects of Erhuang Quzhi Granules Combined with Silibinin Capsules on Fatty Liver Index,Inflammatory Factors and Autophagy-Related Gene Levels in Patients with Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease
Ping CHEN ; Xiao-Qing GONG ; Xiao-Hong LI ; Chun-Yan YIN ; Jia-Huan TENG
Journal of Guangzhou University of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2024;41(6):1422-1429
Objective To investigate the effects of Erhuang Quzhi Granules combined with Silibinin Capsules on fatty liver index,inflammatory factors and autophagy-related gene levels in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease(NAFLD).Methods A total of 126 patients with NAFLD of phlegm blended with blood stasis type were randomly divided into control group and observation group,with 63 cases in each group.The control group was treated with oral use of Silibinin Capsules,and the observation group was treated with oral use of Erhuang Quzhi Granules on the basis of treatment for the control group.The course of treatment lasted for 3 months.Before and after treatment,the two groups were observed in the changes of fatty liver index,and the levels of inflammatory factors of interleukin 6(IL-6)and tumor necrosis factor alpha(TNF-α),liver function and blood lipid indicators of alanine aminotransferase(ALT),aspartate aminotransferase(AST),γ-glutamyl transpeptidase(GGT),total cholesterol(TC),triglyceride(TG),high-density lipoprotein cholesterol(HDL-C)and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol(LDL-C),and autophagy-related genes of autophagy-related gene 7(ATG7)and myosin-like BCL2 binding protein(Beclin 1).After treatment,the clinical efficacy and safety of the two groups were evaluated.Results(1)After 3 months of treatment,the total effective rate of the observation group was 90.48%(57/63),and that of the control group was 71.43%(45/63).The intergroup comparison(tested by chi-square test)showed that the efficacy of the observation group was significantly superior to that of the control group(P<0.01).(2)After treatment,the fatty liver index of the two groups was significantly decreased compared with that before treatment(P<0.05),and the decrease of fatty liver index in the observation group was significantly superior to that in the control group(P<0.01).(3)After treatment,the serum levels of inflammatory factors of IL-6 and TNF-α in the two groups were significantly lower than those before treatment(P<0.05),and the decrease of serum IL-6 and TNF-α levels in the observation group was significantly superior to that in the control group(P<0.05).(4)AAfter treatment,the serum levels of liver function indicators of ALT,AST and GGT in the two groups were significantly lower than those before treatment(P<0.05),and the decrease of serum ALT,AST and GGT levels in the observation group was significantly superior to that in the control group(P<0.05).(5)After treatment,the serum levels of blood lipids of TG,TC and LDL-C in the two groups were significantly lower than those before treatment(P<0.05),and the serum HDL-C level was significantly higher than that before treatment(P<0.05).The decrease of serum TG,TC and LDL-C levels and the increase of serum HDL-C level in the observation group were significantly superior to those in the control group(P<0.05).(6)After treatment,the serum levels of autophagy-related genes of ATG7 and Beclin 1 in the two groups were significantly higher than those before treatment(P<0.05),and the increase of serum ATG7 and Beclin 1 levels in the observation group was significantly superior to that in the control group(P<0.05).(7)During the medication,no liver or kidney function damage or serious adverse reactions were found in the two groups.Conclusion Erhuang Quzhi Granules combined with Silibinin Capsules are effective for the treatment of NAFLD patients with phlegm blended with blood stasis type,which is helpful to relieve the symptoms of fatty liver,reduce the levels of inflammatory factors,improve liver function and blood lipid levels,and regulate the expression of autophagy-related genes.
9.Development and its reliability and validity of the Knowledge,Attitude and Practice Scale for Informal Caregivers of Pressure Injury Patients
Jing LU ; Xuan YANG ; Shuangjiao SHI ; Chun SHENG ; Lian MAO ; Lina GONG
Journal of Central South University(Medical Sciences) 2024;49(6):972-980
Objective:There is a lack of scientifically validated tools to measure the knowledge attitude and practice(KAP)of informal caregivers for patients with pressure injury(PI).This study aims to develop a KAP Scale for Informal Caregivers of PI Patients and to evaluate its reliability and validity. Methods:Based on the KAP theory framework and relevant literature,an initial pool of items was created through expert brainstorming sessions.The initial scale was formed after a Delphi expert consultation and a preliminary survey.From April to October 2023,a convenient sample of informal caregivers for PI patients was recruited from an inpatient department of the Third Xiangya Hospital of Central South University,as well as its associated community and nursing homes.The first round included 186 participants,and the second round included 213 participants,who were used for item analysis and reliability and validity testing.After a 3-week interval,20 participants from the initial group were randomly selected for a retest to assess the test-retest reliability of the scale. Results:The KAP Scale for informal caregivers of PI patients consists of 3 dimensions with 19 items.The overall internal consistency(Cronbach's α)of the scale was 0.916.The item-level content validity index(I-CVI)ranged from 0.826 to 1.000,and the scale level-content validity index/average(S-CVI/Ave)was 0.94.Exploratory factor analysis extracted 3 common factors,accounting for 64.643%of the total variance.Confirmatory factor analysis showed that the model fit the data well,with x2/df=2.54,root mean square error of approximation(RMSEA)=0.085,comparative fit index(CFI)=0.920,and standardized root mean square residual(SRMR)=0.059. Conclusion:The KAP scale for informal caregivers of PI patients demonstrates good reliability and validity and can be used to assess the KAP levels of informal caregivers regarding PI.
10.Development and validation of dynamic prediction models using vital signs time series data for fatal massive hemorrhage in trauma
Cheng-Yu GUO ; Ming-Hui GONG ; Qiao-Chu SHEN ; Hui HAN ; Ruo-Lin WANG ; Hong-Liang ZHANG ; Jun-Kang WANG ; Chun-Ping LI ; Tan-Shi LI
Medical Journal of Chinese People's Liberation Army 2024;49(6):629-635
Objective To establish a dynamic prediction model of fatal massive hemorrhage in trauma based on the vital signs time series data and machine learning algorithms.Methods Retrospectively analyze the vital signs time series data of 7522 patients with trauma in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-Ⅳ(MIMIC-Ⅳ)database from 2008 to 2019.According to the occurrence of posttraumatic fatal massive hemorrhage,the patients were divided into two groups:fatal massive hemorrhage group(n=283)and non-fatal massive hemorrhage group(n=7239).Six machine learning algorithms,including logistic regression(LR),support vector machine(SVM),random forests(RF),adaptive boosting(AdaBoost),gated recurrent unit(GRU),and GRU-D were used to develop a dynamic prediction models of fatal massive hemorrhage in trauma.The probability of fatal massive hemorrhage in the following 1,2,and 3 h was dynamically predicted.The performance of the models was evaluated by accuracy,sensitivity,specificity,positive predictive value,negative predictive value,Youden index,and area under receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC).The models were externally validated based on the trauma database of the Chinese PLA General Hospital.Results In the MIMIC-Ⅳ database,the set of dynamic prediction models based on the GRU-D algorithm was the best.The AUC for predicting fatal major bleeding in the next 1,2,and 3 h were 0.946±0.029,0.940±0.032,and 0.943±0.034,respectively,and there was no significant difference(P=0.905).In the trauma dataset,GRU-D model achieved the best external validation effect.The AUC for predicting fatal major bleeding in the next 1,2,and 3 h were 0.779±0.013,0.780±0.008,and 0.778±0.009,respectively,and there was no significant difference(P=0.181).This set of models was deployed in a public web calculator and hospital emergency department information system,which is convenient for the public and medical staff to use and validate the model.Conclusion A set of dynamic prediction models has been successfully developed and validated,which is greatly significant for the early diagnosis and dynamic prediction of fatal massive hemorrhage in trauma.

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