1.Associations of Genetic Risk and Physical Activity with Incident Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A Large Prospective Cohort Study.
Jin YANG ; Xiao Lin WANG ; Wen Fang ZHONG ; Jian GAO ; Huan CHEN ; Pei Liang CHEN ; Qing Mei HUANG ; Yi Xin ZHANG ; Fang Fei YOU ; Chuan LI ; Wei Qi SONG ; Dong SHEN ; Jiao Jiao REN ; Dan LIU ; Zhi Hao LI ; Chen MAO
Biomedical and Environmental Sciences 2025;38(10):1194-1204
OBJECTIVE:
To investigate the relationship between physical activity and genetic risk and their combined effects on the risk of developing chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.
METHODS:
This prospective cohort study included 318,085 biobank participants from the UK. Physical activity was assessed using the short form of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire. The participants were stratified into low-, intermediate-, and high-genetic-risk groups based on their polygenic risk scores. Multivariate Cox regression models and multiplicative interaction analyses were used.
RESULTS:
During a median follow-up period of 13 years, 9,209 participants were diagnosed with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. For low genetic risk, compared to low physical activity, the hazard ratios ( HRs) for moderate and high physical activity were 0.853 (95% confidence interval [ CI]: 0.748-0.972) and 0.831 (95% CI: 0.727-0.950), respectively. For intermediate genetic risk, the HRs were 0.829 (95% CI: 0.758-0.905) and 0.835 (95% CI: 0.764-0.914), respectively. For participants with high genetic risk, the HRs were 0.809 (95% CI: 0.746-0.877) and 0.818 (95% CI: 0.754-0.888), respectively. A significant interaction was observed between genetic risk and physical activity.
CONCLUSION
Moderate or high levels of physical activity were associated with a lower risk of developing chronic obstructive pulmonary disease across all genetic risk groups, highlighting the need to tailor activity interventions for genetically susceptible individuals.
Humans
;
Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/epidemiology*
;
Exercise
;
Male
;
Female
;
Middle Aged
;
Prospective Studies
;
Aged
;
Genetic Predisposition to Disease
;
Risk Factors
;
United Kingdom/epidemiology*
;
Incidence
;
Adult
2.Predictive Modeling of Symptomatic Intracranial Hemorrhage Following Endovascular Thrombectomy: Insights From the Nationwide TREAT-AIS Registry
Jia-Hung CHEN ; I-Chang SU ; Yueh-Hsun LU ; Yi-Chen HSIEH ; Chih-Hao CHEN ; Chun-Jen LIN ; Yu-Wei CHEN ; Kuan-Hung LIN ; Pi-Shan SUNG ; Chih-Wei TANG ; Hai-Jui CHU ; Chuan-Hsiu FU ; Chao-Liang CHOU ; Cheng-Yu WEI ; Shang-Yih YAN ; Po-Lin CHEN ; Hsu-Ling YEH ; Sheng-Feng SUNG ; Hon-Man LIU ; Ching-Huang LIN ; Meng LEE ; Sung-Chun TANG ; I-Hui LEE ; Lung CHAN ; Li-Ming LIEN ; Hung-Yi CHIOU ; Jiunn-Tay LEE ; Jiann-Shing JENG ;
Journal of Stroke 2025;27(1):85-94
Background:
and Purpose Symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH) following endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) is a severe complication associated with adverse functional outcomes and increased mortality rates. Currently, a reliable predictive model for sICH risk after EVT is lacking.
Methods:
This study used data from patients aged ≥20 years who underwent EVT for anterior circulation stroke from the nationwide Taiwan Registry of Endovascular Thrombectomy for Acute Ischemic Stroke (TREAT-AIS). A predictive model including factors associated with an increased risk of sICH after EVT was developed to differentiate between patients with and without sICH. This model was compared existing predictive models using nationwide registry data to evaluate its relative performance.
Results:
Of the 2,507 identified patients, 158 developed sICH after EVT. Factors such as diastolic blood pressure, Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score, platelet count, glucose level, collateral score, and successful reperfusion were associated with the risk of sICH after EVT. The TREAT-AIS score demonstrated acceptable predictive accuracy (area under the curve [AUC]=0.694), with higher scores being associated with an increased risk of sICH (odds ratio=2.01 per score increase, 95% confidence interval=1.64–2.45, P<0.001). The discriminatory capacity of the score was similar in patients with symptom onset beyond 6 hours (AUC=0.705). Compared to existing models, the TREAT-AIS score consistently exhibited superior predictive accuracy, although this difference was marginal.
Conclusions
The TREAT-AIS score outperformed existing models, and demonstrated an acceptable discriminatory capacity for distinguishing patients according to sICH risk levels. However, the differences between models were only marginal. Further research incorporating periprocedural and postprocedural factors is required to improve the predictive accuracy.
3.Predictive Modeling of Symptomatic Intracranial Hemorrhage Following Endovascular Thrombectomy: Insights From the Nationwide TREAT-AIS Registry
Jia-Hung CHEN ; I-Chang SU ; Yueh-Hsun LU ; Yi-Chen HSIEH ; Chih-Hao CHEN ; Chun-Jen LIN ; Yu-Wei CHEN ; Kuan-Hung LIN ; Pi-Shan SUNG ; Chih-Wei TANG ; Hai-Jui CHU ; Chuan-Hsiu FU ; Chao-Liang CHOU ; Cheng-Yu WEI ; Shang-Yih YAN ; Po-Lin CHEN ; Hsu-Ling YEH ; Sheng-Feng SUNG ; Hon-Man LIU ; Ching-Huang LIN ; Meng LEE ; Sung-Chun TANG ; I-Hui LEE ; Lung CHAN ; Li-Ming LIEN ; Hung-Yi CHIOU ; Jiunn-Tay LEE ; Jiann-Shing JENG ;
Journal of Stroke 2025;27(1):85-94
Background:
and Purpose Symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH) following endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) is a severe complication associated with adverse functional outcomes and increased mortality rates. Currently, a reliable predictive model for sICH risk after EVT is lacking.
Methods:
This study used data from patients aged ≥20 years who underwent EVT for anterior circulation stroke from the nationwide Taiwan Registry of Endovascular Thrombectomy for Acute Ischemic Stroke (TREAT-AIS). A predictive model including factors associated with an increased risk of sICH after EVT was developed to differentiate between patients with and without sICH. This model was compared existing predictive models using nationwide registry data to evaluate its relative performance.
Results:
Of the 2,507 identified patients, 158 developed sICH after EVT. Factors such as diastolic blood pressure, Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score, platelet count, glucose level, collateral score, and successful reperfusion were associated with the risk of sICH after EVT. The TREAT-AIS score demonstrated acceptable predictive accuracy (area under the curve [AUC]=0.694), with higher scores being associated with an increased risk of sICH (odds ratio=2.01 per score increase, 95% confidence interval=1.64–2.45, P<0.001). The discriminatory capacity of the score was similar in patients with symptom onset beyond 6 hours (AUC=0.705). Compared to existing models, the TREAT-AIS score consistently exhibited superior predictive accuracy, although this difference was marginal.
Conclusions
The TREAT-AIS score outperformed existing models, and demonstrated an acceptable discriminatory capacity for distinguishing patients according to sICH risk levels. However, the differences between models were only marginal. Further research incorporating periprocedural and postprocedural factors is required to improve the predictive accuracy.
4.Association among seminal oxidation-reduction potential,sperm DNA fragments and semen parameters in patients with varicocele
Xiao-chuan GUAN ; Yue-xin YU ; Ning ZHANG ; Jing ZHOU ; Jia-ping YU ; Yu WANG ; Xing-chi LIU ; Bo-lun WANG
National Journal of Andrology 2025;31(7):591-596
Objective:To investigate the relationship among seminal oxidation-reduction potential(nORP),sperm DNA frag-mentation(DFI)and semen parameters in patients with varicocele.Methods:Clinical data of 522 patients treated in the reproduc-tive andrology clinic of the Northern Theater General Hospital from November 2023 to December 2023 were retrospectively analyzed,in-cluding 435 men of childbearing age and 87 men of infertile age.The patients were divided into the varicocele group(n=116)and non-varicocele group(n=406)according to clinical diagnosis.The differences of seminal plasma nORP,DFI,sperm high DNA stain ability(HDS)and semen parameters were analyzed between the two groups.The relationship among general clinical data,seminal plasma nORP,semen parameters,DFI and HDS in patients with varicocele were further analyzed.According to the severity of varico-cele,the patients were divided into three groups,including mild,moderate and severe.And the differences of seminal plasma nORP and semen parameters,DFI and HDS among all groups were analyzed.The differences of seminal plasma nORP,semen parameters,DFI and HDS were compared between the varicocele and non-varicocele groups.Results:The total sperm count,sperm concentra-tion,progressive motility sperm percentage(PR%)and normal sperm morphology rate(NSMR)in patients with varicocele were sig-nificantly lower than those in control group(P<0.05).And seminal plasma nORP,DFI and HDS in patients with varicocele were sig-nificantly higher than those in control group(P<0.05).Seminal plasma nORP in patients with varicocele was significantly negatively correlated with total sperm,sperm concentration and NSMR(P<0.05),and significantly positively correlated with DFI and HDS(P<0.05).There were significant differences in nORP,total sperm count,sperm concentration,PR%,DFI and HDS among mild,moderate and severe varicocele groups(P<0.05).Seminal plasma nORP,sperm concentration,PR%and DFI in severe group were significantly lower than those in mild and moderate groups(P<0.05).Sperm count and HDS in severe group were significantly lower than those in mild group(P<0.05).In infertile patients,seminal plasma nORP,DFI and HDS in varicocele group were significantly higher than those in control group(P<0.05).And PR%in varicocele group was significantly lower than that in control group(P<0.05).Conclusions:Seminal plasma nORP in patients with varicocele may be an important marker of oxidative stress affecting DFI and semen parameters.
5.Mechanistic investigation of Fuzheng Hefu Zhiyang Formula in alleviating psoriasis inflammatory microenvironment via P38/Erk/NF-κB signaling pathway
Yi-jing LIAO ; Yan-jie LIU ; Yue LU ; Bin TANG ; Jun-hong ZHANG ; Jing-jie YU ; Hao DENG ; Ling HAN ; Chuan-jian LU ; Hai-ming CHEN
Chinese Traditional Patent Medicine 2025;47(8):2550-2558
AIM To investigate the effect of Fuzheng Hefu Zhiyang Formula(FZHFZY)on psoriasis-like skin lesions and immune regulation in mice.METHODS In the in vivo experiment,30 BALB/c mice were randomly divided into the blank group,the model group,the dexamethasone group(1.5 g/kg of compound dexamethasone acetate cream),and the low-dose(2.5 g/kg)and high-dose(5 g/kg)FZHFZY groups,with six mice in each group.The experiment groups were treated with respective FZHFZY and dexamethasone,and the other groups were given normal saline for 10 consecutive days,during which psoriatic skin lesions were induced with imiquimod cream for 7 consecutive days.The mice had their area and severity of psoriasis assessed by PASI score;their histological changes of skin lesions.observed with Hematoxylin-eosin(HE)staining;their F4/80 ratio of skin lesions observed with immunohistochemical(IHC)staining;their protein expressions of P38,p-P38,Erk,p-Erk,P65 and p-P65 detected by Western blot;and their mRNA expressions of tumor necrosis factor-α(TNF-α),IL-17,IL-23 and IL-1β detected by RT-qPCR.In the in vitro research,the cultured RAW264.7 cells were divided into the blank group,the LPS group,and the FZHFZY groups(1 200,600,300,150 μg/mL).The cells had their protein expressions of P38,p-P38,Erk,p-Erk,P65 and p-P65 detected with Western blot;and their mRNA expressions of IL-6,TNF-α,IL-23 and IL-8 detected by RT-qPCR.RESULTS The in vivo experiment showed that compared to the model group,the FZHFZY groups demonstrated decreased PASI score(P<0.01);improved epidermal thickening and parakeratosis of skin lesions as revealed by HE staining result and increased expression of F4/80 in IHC staining sections;decreased protein expression ratios of p-P38/P38,p-ERK/Erk and p-P65/P65 in skin(P<0.05,P<0.01);and reduced mRNA expressions of TNF-α,IL-17,IL-23 and IL-1β in the skin(P<0.01).FZHFZY(0~2 400 μg/mL)showed no significant cytotoxicity towards RAW264.7 cells in vitro(P>0.05).Compared to those of the LPS group,the cells exposed to FZHFZ at concentrations of 1 200 and 600 μg/mL demonstrated decreased protein expression ratios of p-P38/P38,p-ERK/Erk,and p-P65/P65(P<0.05,P<0.01);and significantly decreased mRNA expressions of TNF-α,IL-17,IL-23 and IL-1β(P<0.01).CONCLUSION FZHFZY alleviates imiquimod-induced psoriatic lesions in mice and suppresses inflammatory response in LPS-stimulated RAW264.7 cells by inhibiting P38/Erk/NF-κB signaling pathway.
6.Comparative efficacy of two osteotomy procedures in medial compartment knee osteoarthritis: anterior popliteus transtibial tuberosity-high tibial osteotomy versus biplanar-high tibial osteotomy
Zhanyu WU ; Zihao ZOU ; Jiayuan WU ; Daizhu YUAN ; Riguang LIU ; Xu NING ; Wei CHAI ; Chuan YE
Chinese Journal of Orthopaedics 2025;45(15):993-1001
Objective:To compare the clinical outcomes of APTT-HTO and Biplanar-high tibial osteotomy (Biplanar-HTO) in treating medial compartment knee osteoarthritis.Methods:A non-randomized controlled trial was conducted. Twenty-eight patients with medial compartment knee osteoarthritis who underwent HTO at the Affiliated Hospital of Guizhou Medical University from August 2021 to January 2022 were enrolled. Based on the patients' surgical preference, they were assigned to either the APTT-HTO group ( n=15) or the Biplanar-HTO group ( n=13), followed up for 12 months postoperatively. Postoperative pain Visual Analog Scale (VAS) scores, Knee Society Score (KSS), changes in patellar height (Caton-Deschamps Index, CDI), and posterior tibial slope (PTS) were compared between the two groups. Results:The APTT-HTO group demonstrated a significantly shorter operative time (64.13±4.85 min) compared to the Biplanar-HTO group (81.54±6.09 min) ( P<0.05). No significant differences were observed in intraoperative correction (APTT-HTO: 12.19°±4.85°; Biplanar-HTO: 11.23°±3.02°) or postoperative drainage volume (APTT-HTO: 47.00±13.79 ml; Biplanar-HTO: 47.00±11.17 ml) ( P>0.05). At 12-month follow-up (APTT-HTO: 13.93±2.05 months; Biplanar-HTO: 14.08±2.14 months; no dropouts), the APTT-HTO group showed no significant changes in PTS (9.32°±2.04° vs. preoperative 8.82°±1.89°) or CDI (0.95±0.11 vs. 0.98±0.11) ( P>0.05), while the Biplanar-HTO group exhibited increased PTS (13.27°±1.99° vs. 8.86°±1.99°) and decreased CDI (0.64±0.10 vs. 0.97±0.16) ( P<0.05). The differences in PTS and CDI between the APTT HTO group and the Biplanar HTO group at 12 months after surgery were statistically significant ( P<0.05). Both groups achieved significant clinical improvements: in APTT-HTO, VAS decreased (preopreation 4.80±1.01 to postopreation 1.06±0.88), KSS knee scores increased (47.67±12.03 to 87.93±4.38), and KSS function scores improved (48.00±4.93 to 67.00±5.91); in Biplanar-HTO, VAS reduced (5.08±1.12 to 1.85±1.14), KSS knee scores rose (46.85±11.48 to 85.85±5.11), and KSS function scores enhanced (46.92±5.60 to 66.92±5.22) ( P<0.05 for all). Complications included soft tissue irritation (2 cases per group), with Biplanar-HTO additionally reporting deep vein thrombosis (1 case), hinge fracture (1 case), and patella baja (3 cases). Conclusions:Both APTT-HTO and Biplanar-HTO effectively treat medial compartment knee osteoarthritis. However, APTT-HTO outperforms Biplanar-HTO in preventing postoperative patella infera and minimizing alterations in PTS.
7.Correlation Analysis between Disease Duration and Anxiety,Depression,Sleep Disorders and Quality of Life in Patients with Inflammatory Bowel Disease
Meiqi QIU ; Chuan LIU ; Junhai ZHEN
Journal of Medical Research 2025;54(6):64-69,163
Objective To explore the correlation between disease duration and anxiety,depression,sleep quality and quality of life in patients with inflammatory bowel disease(IBD).Methods A cross-sectional survey study was conducted from September 2021 to May 2022 in 42hospitals in 22 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government).General clinical information and disease duration of adult patients with IBD who voluntarily participated in the study were collected,and the anxiety,de-pression,sleep quality,and quality of life of IBD patients were assessed by using the Generalized Anxiety Disorder(GAD-7),the Pa-tient Health Questionnaire-9(PHQ-9),the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index(PSQI),and the Inflammatory Bowel Disease Questionnaire(IBDQ).Results A total of 2476 valid questionnaires were collected.Among them,458(18.50%)patients had a disease duration within 1 year,481(19.43%)patients had a disease duration of 1-2 years,764(30.86%)had a disease duration of 2-5 years,529(21.37%)had a disease duration of 5-10 years,and 244(9.85%)had a disease duration of more than 10 years.The GAD-7score(P=0.005),PHQ-9score(P=0.002),and PSQI score(P=0.005)were statistically significant in different disease duration groups.In pairwise comparisons,IBD patients with a disease duration of 5-10 years were more likely to have depression,anxiety,and sleep disorder.IBDQ scores were statistically significant in different disease duration groups(P=0.005).Among them,bowel symptom score(P=0.001),emotional competence score(P=0.013),and social competence score(P<0.001)were statistically significant.Patients with a disease duration of 2-5 years seemed to have a better quality of life,including milder bowel symptoms,better emotional,and social competence.Patients with a disease duration of 10 years or more had better social competence.Conclusion Anxiety,depres-sion,sleep disorders,and quality of life are associated with disease duration in patients with IBD,and patients with IBD with a disease duration of 5-10 years are more likely to have depressive states,anxiety and sleep states.
8.Clinical features and surgical treatment strategies of hip arthroplasty for unhealed old femoral intertrochanteric fractures.
Qing XIA ; Chuan-Wen LIU ; Yu-Cheng XIA ; Hui-Yang WANG ; Jin-Quan GUO
China Journal of Orthopaedics and Traumatology 2025;38(2):188-194
OBJECTIVE:
To explore the surgical method and clinical efficacy of hip arthroplasty in the treatment of old non-union femoral intertrochanteric fractures.
METHODS:
Fifteen unoperated patients suffering from old non-union femoral intertrochanteric fractures from Feburary 2013 to Feburary 2023 were treated with hip arthroplasty including 9 males and 6 females, aged 71 to 82 years old. Eleven cases detected deep venous thrombosis(DVT), 9 cases received lower vena cava filter implantation. The operation time, intraoperative blood loss, intraoperative and postoperative blood transfusion, postoperative hemoglobin content, procedure-related complications, and the range of motion of hip flexion, abduction motion were recorded. The degree of hip pain was evaluated using a visual analogue scale(VAS). The hip Harris scores were used to evaluated the clinical efficacy.
RESULTS:
All patients were followed up for 3 to 12 months. The intraoperative blood loss was 200 to 400 ml, intraoperative blood transfusion was 0 to 400 ml, and the operation time was 40 to 90 min. All 15 patients had different degrees of anemia after surgery, the 3 days postoperative hemoglobin was 72 to 97 g·L-1, and the postoperative transfusion volume was 0 to 400 ml. All patients had no periprosthetic infection, poor incision healing, lower limb deep vein thrombosis, and cerebral infarction. One case occurred in the early postoperative period, which disappeared from 4 to 5 days after operation, and there was no further revision at the last follow-up. The VAS was 6 to 7 points before operation and 2 to 4 points at latest follow-up;the hip Harris score was 2 to 13 points before operation and 73 to 84 points at latest follow-up.
CONCLUSION
The unoperated patients of old non-union femoral intertrochanteric fractures had significant clinical and imaging characteristics. Hip arthroplasty combined with or without femoral calcar reconstruction in the treatment of old non-union femoral intertrochanteric fractures had the advantages of relatively simple manipulation, rigid fixation, relatively safe operation, and relatively exact efficacy.
Humans
;
Male
;
Female
;
Aged
;
Hip Fractures/physiopathology*
;
Aged, 80 and over
;
Arthroplasty, Replacement, Hip/methods*
9.Prevalence and risk factors of training-related abdominal injuries: A multicenter survey study.
Chuan PANG ; Wen-Quan LIANG ; Gan ZHANG ; Ting-Ting LU ; Yun-He GAO ; Xin MIAO ; Zhi-Da CHEN ; Yi LIU ; Wen-Tong XU ; Hong-Qing XI
Chinese Journal of Traumatology 2025;28(4):301-306
PURPOSE:
This study aims to identify the prevalence and risk factors of military training-related abdominal injuries and help plan and conduct training properly.
METHODS:
This questionnaire survey study was conducted from October 2021 to May 2022 among military personnel from 6 military units and 8 military medical centers and participants' medical records were consulted to identify the training-related abdominal injuries. All the military personnel who ever participated in military training were included. Those who refused to participate in this study or provided an incomplete questionnaire were excluded. The questionnaire collected demographic information, type of abdominal injury, frequency, training subjects, triggers, treatment, and training disturbance. Chi-square test and t-test were used to compare baseline information. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were used to explore the risk factors associated with military training-related abdominal injuries.
RESULTS:
A total of 3058 participants were involved in this study, among which 1797 (58.8%) had suffered training-related abdominal injuries (the mean age was 24.3 years and the service time was 5.6 years), while 1261 (41.2%) had no training-related abdominal injuries (the mean age was 23.1 years and the service time was 4.3 years). There were 546 injured patients (30.4%) suspended the training and 84 (4.6%) needed to be referred to higher-level hospitals. The most common triggers included inadequate warm-up, fatigue, and intense training. The training subjects with the most abdominal injuries were long-distance running (589, 32.8%). Civil servants had the highest rate of abdominal trauma (17.1%). Age ≥ 25 years, military service ≥ 3 years, poor sleep status, and previous abdominal history were independent risk factors for training-related abdominal injury.
CONCLUSION
More than half of the military personnel have suffered military training-related abdominal injuries. Inadequate warm-up, fatigue, and high training intensity are the most common inducing factors. Scientific and proper training should be conducted according to the factors causing abdominal injuries.
Humans
;
Military Personnel
;
Risk Factors
;
Prevalence
;
Male
;
Abdominal Injuries/etiology*
;
Female
;
Adult
;
Surveys and Questionnaires
;
Young Adult
10.Risk factors and prediction model construction of bacterial infection after gastroscopy in patients with cirrhosis and gastroesophageal varices
Xiangyu FANG ; Chuan SHEN ; Luyuan MA ; Yuexia LIU ; Chun LIU ; Caiyan ZHAO
Chinese Journal of Infectious Diseases 2025;43(8):457-464
Objective:To analyze the risk factors of bacterial infection in patients with liver cirrhosis complicated with gastroesophageal varices after gastroscopy, and to construct a prediction model.Methods:Patients with gastroesophageal varices due to cirrhosis who underwent gastroscopy in the Third Hospital of Hebei Medical University from January 2021 to May 2023 were enrolled. All patients were divided into infection group and non-infection group according to whether bacterial infection occurred after gastroscopy. The detection of pathogens in the infection group and the source of specimens were analyzed. Multivariate binary logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors of postoperative bacterial infection in patients with cirrhosis and gastroesophageal varices. The nomogram was drawn by R language to construct a risk prediction model. Receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve), calibration curve, Hosmer-Lemeshow test and decision curve were used to evaluate the model.Results:Among the 480 patients, 57 had postoperative bacterial infection and 423 had no infection. The incidence of infection was 11.88%(57/480). Seventy bacterial culture positive samples were obtained, mainly from blood and respiratory tract (30 samples (42.86%) and 25 samples (35.71%), respectively). A total of 82 strains of pathogenic bacteria were isolated, including 16 strains of Escherichia coli and 14 strains of Staphylococcus aureus. Multivariate binary regression analysis showed that length of hospital stay (odds ratio ( OR)=1.13, 95% confidence interval ( CI) 1.06 to 1.20, P<0.001), age ( OR=1.06, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.10, P=0.006), model for end-stage liver disease combined with sodium (MELD-Na) score ( OR=1.10, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.18, P=0.014), diabetes ( OR=1.25, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.96, P=0.043) and emergency gastroscopy ( OR=2.95, 95% CI 1.20 to 7.25, P=0.019) were independent risk factors for bacterial infection after gastroscopy in patients with cirrhosis and gastroesophageal varices. Based on the above risk factors, a nomogram prediction model was constructed. The results of ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve of the nomogram model for predicting bacterial infection after gastroscopy of gastroesophageal varices in cirrhosis was 0.82 (95% CI 0.73 to 0.90). The slope of the calibration curve was 0.98(95% CI 0.92 to 1.04), indicating that the predicted probability of the model was in good agreement with the actual probability. The results of Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed that the nomogram model fitted well ( χ2=6.35, P=0.415). The decision curve analysis showed that the clinical net benefit rate of the nomogram model was >0 when the threshold probability was 0.039 to 0.410. Conclusions:Older age, length of hospital stay, MELD-Na score, history of diabetes, and emergency gastroscopy are independent risk factors for bacterial infection after gastroscopy in patients with cirrhosis and gastroesophageal varices. The prediction model constructed in this study has a good predictive value for bacterial infection in such patients.

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