Correctional facilities are a major hub of hepatitis C virus (HCV), with rates far higher than those observed in the general population. Once considered an intractable crisis, the current situation offers a unique opportunity. The advent of direct-acting antivirals has changed the HCV treatment landscape, making its elimination possible. This review summarises the scientific evidence and progress towards HCV elimination in correctional health systems. It outlines the evolution of 'test-and-treat' models, assesses micro-elimination success worldwide, especially in Singapore, and highlights collaborative efforts between Changi General Hospital and Singapore Prison Services. Their implementation of HCV treatment guidelines serves as a key case study in this context. This review also analyses the various barriers - structural, financial, clinical and logistical - that hinder progress. It consolidates strong evidence that prison-based HCV treatment is cost-effective, promotes health equity, supports the World Health Organization 2030 goals and reduces the societal burden of HCV.
Humans ; Singapore ; Antiviral Agents/therapeutic use* ; Hepatitis C, Chronic/epidemiology* ; Prisons ; Prisoners ; Disease Eradication ; Cost-Benefit Analysis ; Hepacivirus ; Correctional Facilities

INTRODUCTION: As the population ages, patient complexity is increasing, intensifying the demand for well-resourced, coordinated care. A deeper understanding of the factors contributing to this complexity is essential for optimising resource allocation. This study evaluates the prevalence of complex care needs in Singapore's primary care settings and identifies the factors associated with these needs. METHOD: Using a qualitative study design, we developed a patient complexity questionnaire to assess how Singapore family physicians recognise patient complexity. Sixty-nine experienced primary care physicians applied this tool to assess patient encounters, categorising each as "routine care" (RC), "medically challenging" (MC), or "complex care" (CC). We compared the care needs across these categories and used mixed-effects multinomial logistic regression to determine the independent predictors of complexity. RESULTS: Of the 4327 encounters evaluated, 15.0% were classified as CC, 18.5% as MC, and 66.4% as RC. In both CC and MC encounters, the most common medical challenges were polypharmacy (66.2% in CC, 44.9% in MC); poorly controlled chronic conditions (41.3% in CC, 24.5% in MC); and treatment interactions (34.4% in CC, 26.0% in MC). Non-medical issues frequently identified included low health literacy (32.6% in CC, 20.8% in MC); limited motivation for healthy lifestyle behaviours (27.2% in CC, 16.6% in MC); and the need for coordinated care with hospital specialists (24.7% in CC, 17.1% in MC). The top 3 independent predictors of complexity included mobility limitations requiring assistance (odds ratio [OR] for requiring wheelchair/trolley: 7.14 for CC vs RC, 95% confidence interval [CI] 4.74-10.74); longer consultation times with physicians (OR for taking >20 minutes for doctor's consultation: 3.96 for CC vs RC, 95% CI 2.86-5.48); and low socioeconomic status (OR for living in 1- or 2-room HDB flats: 2.98 for CC vs RC, 95% CI 1.74-5.13). CONCLUSION High care needs, encompassing both CC and MC encounters, were prevalent in primary care interactions. These findings highlight that relying solely on chronic disease count is insufficient to capture the full spectrum of patient complexity.
Singapore/epidemiology* ; Humans ; Primary Health Care/statistics & numerical data* ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Adult ; Surveys and Questionnaires ; Prevalence ; Polypharmacy ; Qualitative Research ; Chronic Disease/therapy* ; Logistic Models

INTRODUCTION: The 30-day readmission rate for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a common performance metric but may be confounded by factors unrelated to quality of care. Our aim was to assess how sociodemographic factors, multimorbidity and frailty impact 30-day readmission risk after COPD hospitalisation, and whether risk adjustment alters interpretation of temporal trends. METHOD: This is a retrospective analysis of administra-tive data from October 2017 to June 2023 from Changi General Hospital, Singapore. Multivariable mixed-effects logistic regression models were used to estimate unadjusted and risk-adjusted 30-day readmission odds. Covariates included age, sex, race, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS) and year. Temporal trends in readmission risk were compared across unadjusted and adjusted models. RESULTS: Of the 2774 admissions, 749 (27%) resulted in 30-day readmissions. Higher CCI (CCI≥4 versus [vs] CCI=1: adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.00, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.33-2.99, P=0.003; CCI 2-3 vs CCI=1: aOR 1.50, 95% CI 1.15-1.96, P=0.001) and higher HFRS (≥5 vs <5: aOR 1.29, 95% CI 1.01-1.65, P=0.04) were independently associated with increased readmission risk. While unadjusted analyses showed no significant temporal trends, the risk-adjusted model revealed a 32-35% reduction in readmission odds in 2021-2023 compared to baseline. CONCLUSION Multimorbidity and frailty significantly impact COPD readmissions. Risk adjustment revealed improvements in readmission risk not evident in unadjusted analyses, emphasising the importance of applying risk adjustments to ensure valid performance metrics.
Humans ; Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/therapy* ; Patient Readmission/trends* ; Male ; Female ; Retrospective Studies ; Aged ; Singapore/epidemiology* ; Multimorbidity ; Frailty/epidemiology* ; Middle Aged ; Risk Adjustment ; Aged, 80 and over ; Logistic Models ; Risk Factors

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological data on chronic diarrhea in the Chinese population are lacking, and the association between obesity and chronic diarrhea in East Asian populations remains inconclusive. This study aimed to investigate the prevalence of chronic diarrhea and its association with obesity in a representative community-dwelling Chinese population. METHODS: This cross-sectional study was based on a multistage, randomized cluster sampling involving 3503 residents aged 20-69 years from representative urban and rural communities in Beijing. Chronic diarrhea was assessed using the Bristol Stool Form Scale (BSFS), and obesity was determined based on body mass index (BMI). Logistic regression analysis and restricted cubic splines were used to evaluate the relationship between obesity and chronic diarrhea. RESULTS: The standardized prevalence of chronic diarrhea in the study population was 12.88%. The average BMI was 24.67 kg/m 2 . Of all the participants, 35.17% (1232/3503) of participants were classified as overweight and 16.13% (565/3503) as obese. After adjustment for potential confounders, individuals with obesity had an increased risk of chronic diarrhea as compared to normal weight individuals (odds ratio = 1.58, 95% confidence interval: 1.20-2.06). A nonlinear association between BMI and the risk of chronic diarrhea was observed in community residents of males and the overall participant group ( P  = 0.026 and 0.017, respectively). CONCLUSIONS This study presents initial findings on the prevalence of chronic diarrhea among residents of Chinese communities while offering substantiated evidence regarding the significant association between obesity and chronic diarrhea. These findings offer a novel perspective on gastrointestinal health management.
Adult ; Aged ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Young Adult ; Body Mass Index ; China/epidemiology* ; Chronic Disease/epidemiology* ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Diarrhea/epidemiology* ; Obesity/complications* ; Prevalence ; East Asian People/statistics & numerical data*

BACKGROUND: The American Heart Association recently released a new cardiovascular health (CVH) metric, Life's Essential 8 (LE8), for health promotion. However, the association between LE8 scores and the risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD) remains uncertain. We aimed to explore the association of LE8 scores with new-onset CKD and examine whether socioeconomic deprivation and genetic risk modify this association. METHODS: A total of 286,908 participants from UK Biobank and without prior CKD were included between 2006 and 2010. CVH was categorized using LE8 scores: low (LE8 scores <50), moderate (LE8 scores ≥50 but <80), and high (LE8 scores ≥80). The study outcome was new-onset CKD, ascertained by data linkage with primary care, hospital inpatient, and death data. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to investigate the association between CVH categories and new-onset CKD. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 12.5 years, 8857 (3.1%) participants developed new-onset CKD. Compared to the low CVH group, the moderate (adjusted hazards ratio [HR], 0.50; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.47-0.53) and high CVH (adjusted HR, 0.31; 95% CI: 0.27-0.34) groups had a significantly lower risk of developing new-onset CKD. The population-attributable risk associated with high vs. intermediate or low CVH scores was 40.3%. Participants who were least deprived ( vs.  most deprived; adjusted HR, 0.75; 95% CI: 0.71-0.79) and with low genetic risk of CKD ( vs.  high genetic risk; adjusted HR, 0.89; 95% CI: 0.85-0.94) had a significantly lower risk of developing new-onset CKD. However, socioeconomic deprivation and genetic risks of CKD did not significantly modify the relationship between LE8 scores and new-onset CKD (both P -interaction >0.05). CONCLUSION Achieving a higher LE8 score was associated with a lower risk of developing new-onset CKD, regardless of socioeconomic deprivation and genetic risks of CKD.
Humans ; Renal Insufficiency, Chronic/epidemiology* ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Genetic Predisposition to Disease/genetics* ; Aged ; Risk Factors ; Adult ; Proportional Hazards Models ; Socioeconomic Factors

BACKGROUND: Chronic liver disease (CLD), mainly non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), is a significant public health concern worldwide. This study aims to quantify the burden of NAFLD in CLD globally and within China, using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021, providing crucial insights for global and local health policies. METHODS: The study used comprehensive data from the GBD study 2021. It included estimates of prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Age-standardized rates and average annual percent change (AAPC) from 2011 to 2021 were reported. A meticulous decomposition analysis was conducted. RESULTS: In 2021, there were 1582.5 million prevalent cases, 47.6 million incident cases, 1.4 million deaths, and 44.4 million DALYs attributable to CLD, globally. Among these, NAFLD has emerged as the predominant cause, accounting for 78.0% of all prevalent CLD cases (1234.7 million) and 87.2% of incident cases (41.5 million). Correspondingly, NAFLD had the highest age-standardized prevalence (15,017.5 per 100,000 population) and incidence (876.5 per 100,000 population) rates among CLDs. In addition, China's CLD age-standardized prevalence rate was 21,659.5 per 100,000 population, and the age-standardized incidence rate was 752.6 per 100,000 population, higher than the global average. From 2011 to 2021, the global prevalence rate of CLD increased slowly (AAPC = 0.17), consistent with the trend in China (AAPC = 0.23). Furthermore, the prevalence rate of NAFLD rose significantly in China (AAPC = 1.30) compared with the global average (AAPC = 0.91). Decomposition analysis also showed the worldwide increase in deaths and DALYs for NAFLD, which were primarily attributable to population growth and aging. CONCLUSIONS The burden of CLD and NAFLD remains substantial globally and within China in terms of high prevalence and incidence. As such, this underscores the need for targeted prevention and treatment strategies. These findings emphasize the importance of continued surveillance and research to mitigate the growing impact of liver diseases on global and Chinese health systems.
Humans ; Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease/mortality* ; Global Burden of Disease ; China/epidemiology* ; Prevalence ; Male ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Female ; Incidence ; Middle Aged ; Chronic Disease ; Adult ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Liver Diseases/epidemiology* ; Aged

OBJECTIVE: The Asia-Pacific region has a high chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) burden, but studies on its trends are limited. Using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 data, we analyzed COPD trends in 36 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019 and predicted future incidence trends through 2034. METHODS: COPD data by age and sex from the GBD 2019 database were analyzed for incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rates from 1990 to 2019. Joinpoint regression identified significant annual trends, and age-standardized incidence rates were predicted through 2034 using age-period-cohort models. RESULTS: The incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disease burden of COPD have been decreasing, and the incidence rates will continue to decrease or remain stable until 2034 in most selected countries and territories, except for a few Southeastern Asian countries. The Lao People's Democratic Republic and Vietnam are projected to experience an increase in COPD incidence from 165.3 per 100,000 in 2019 to 177 per 100,000 in 2034 and from 179.9 per 100,000 in 2019 to 192.5 per 100,000 in 2034, respectively. Older males had a higher incidence than any other sex or age group. The sex gap in incidence rates continues to widen, though it is smaller and less significant in the younger age group than in those in the older one. CONCLUSION COPD rates are expected to decline until 2034 but remain a health risk, especially in countries with rising rates. Urgent action on tobacco control, air pollution, and public education is needed.
Humans ; Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/mortality* ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Incidence ; Asia/epidemiology* ; Adult ; Prevalence ; Cost of Illness ; Aged, 80 and over ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Young Adult ; Global Burden of Disease ; Adolescent

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relationship between physical activity and genetic risk and their combined effects on the risk of developing chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. METHODS: This prospective cohort study included 318,085 biobank participants from the UK. Physical activity was assessed using the short form of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire. The participants were stratified into low-, intermediate-, and high-genetic-risk groups based on their polygenic risk scores. Multivariate Cox regression models and multiplicative interaction analyses were used. RESULTS: During a median follow-up period of 13 years, 9,209 participants were diagnosed with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. For low genetic risk, compared to low physical activity, the hazard ratios ( HRs) for moderate and high physical activity were 0.853 (95% confidence interval [ CI]: 0.748-0.972) and 0.831 (95% CI: 0.727-0.950), respectively. For intermediate genetic risk, the HRs were 0.829 (95% CI: 0.758-0.905) and 0.835 (95% CI: 0.764-0.914), respectively. For participants with high genetic risk, the HRs were 0.809 (95% CI: 0.746-0.877) and 0.818 (95% CI: 0.754-0.888), respectively. A significant interaction was observed between genetic risk and physical activity. CONCLUSION Moderate or high levels of physical activity were associated with a lower risk of developing chronic obstructive pulmonary disease across all genetic risk groups, highlighting the need to tailor activity interventions for genetically susceptible individuals.
Humans ; Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/epidemiology* ; Exercise ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Prospective Studies ; Aged ; Genetic Predisposition to Disease ; Risk Factors ; United Kingdom/epidemiology* ; Incidence ; Adult

OBJECTIVE: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a major health concern in northwest China; however, the impact of particulate matter (PM) exposure during sand-dust storms (SDS) remains poorly understood. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the association between PM exposure on SDS days and COPD hospitalization risk in arid regions. METHODS: Data on daily COPD hospitalizations were collected from 323 hospitals from 2018 to 2022, along with the corresponding air pollutant and meteorological data for each city in Gansu Province. Employing a space-time-stratified case-crossover design and conditional Poisson regression, we analyzed 265,379 COPD hospitalizations. RESULTS: PM exposure during SDS days significantly increased COPD hospitalization risk [relative risk ( RR) for PM _2.5, lag 3:1.028, 95% confidence interval ( CI): 1.021-1.034], particularly among men and the elderly, and during the cold season. The burden of PM exposure on COPD hospitalization was substantially high in Northwest China, especially in the arid and semi-arid regions. CONCLUSION Our findings revealed a positive correlation between PM exposure during SDS episodes and elevated hospitalization rates for COPD in arid and semi-arid zones in China. This highlights the urgency of developing region-specific public health strategies to address adverse respiratory outcomes associated with SDS-related air quality deterioration.
Humans ; China/epidemiology* ; Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/chemically induced* ; Particulate Matter/analysis* ; Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data* ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Air Pollutants/analysis* ; Environmental Exposure/adverse effects* ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis ; Adult ; Sand ; Air Pollution

Objective To investigate the association between gastroesophageal reflux disease(GERD)and the risk of incident chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD)and explore potential effect modifiers influencing this association.Methods Clinical data from 476 175 participants in the UK Biobank(2006-2010)were collected.A Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess the relationship between GERD and the risk of incident COPD.Subgroup analyses were conducted to examine potential modifiers of the primary findings.Results A total of 11 587(2.43%)new COPD cases were diagnosed.The Cox proportional hazards model revealed that GERD was associated with an increased risk of incident COPD(HR=1.59,95%CI=1.46-1.74,P<0.001).GERD was linked to a higher risk of incident COPD in individuals aged<60 years(P<0.001)and non-smokers(P=0.011).No association was observed between GERD and the risk of incident COPD in current smokers with a daily cigarette consumption<10 cigarettes(P=0.261).Conclusion GERD may increase the risk of incident COPD.
Humans ; Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/epidemiology* ; Gastroesophageal Reflux/epidemiology* ; Middle Aged ; Proportional Hazards Models ; Incidence ; Male ; Risk Factors ; Female ; Aged