1.Research on The Construction and Application of Multiple Fluorescence Amplification System for Three Kinds of Stains
Yi-Fan BAI ; He-Miao ZHAO ; Jing CHEN ; Hong-Di LIU ; Rui-Qin YANG ; Chong WANG
Progress in Biochemistry and Biophysics 2025;52(4):982-994
ObjectiveA multiplex amplification system was constructed based on the capillary electrophoresis platform for simultaneous detection of saliva, semen, and vaginal secretions using tissue-specific RNA markers. The aim of this study is to identify the tissue origin of suspicious body fluid stains found at crime scenes and determine whether the body fluid stains at the crime scene are one or several types among saliva, semen, and vaginal secretions. MethodsThirty saliva samples, forty semen samples, and forty vaginal secretion samples (half from 2015 and half from 2024) were collected from healthy adult volunteers. Through primer designing, system formulation, and PCR condition optimization, a multiplex fluorescent amplification system was constructed. The specificity, sensitivity, and detection ability for mixed samples of this system were investigated, and it was tested using real crime scene materials. In the primer design stage, to reduce the requirements for RNA template quality, the amplification products were set within 80-300 bp. In the system formulation stage, dominant and subordinate primers were mainly considered. By reducing the concentration of dominant primers and increasing that of subordinate primers, a capillary electrophoresis spectrum with an appropriate peak height ratio was finally obtained. Additionally, gradient experiments were designed to adjust the concentrations of PCR reagents and PCR amplification conditions, and multiple versions of DNA amplification enzymes were optimized to achieve the best experimental results. ResultsThrough statistical analysis, there was no significant difference in the capillary electrophoresis of the 3 types of body fluid samples from the two years (2015 and 2024), demonstrating that the sample preservation method in this study can preserve samples for a relatively long time. The composite amplification system constructed in this study exhibited high specificity for all 3 types of body fluid, with no cross-reactions between the markers of each type of body fluid. The minimum detection thresholds for the 3 types of body fluid reached 0.002 9, 0.001 5, and 0.42 mg/L, respectively. This system also had a high degree of discrimination for mixed samples, especially for semen-saliva mixtures, where each body fluid marker could still be successfully detected when the concentration ratio of semen to saliva was 100:1. Meanwhile, in the two actual cases presented in this article, the application of this composite amplification system performed outstandingly. ConclusionThe composite amplification detection system constructed in this study can achieve the correct screening of saliva, semen, and vaginal secretions, overcoming the problems such as low specificity and sensitivity of marker tests and unbalanced RFU values of each marker in previous studies. The specificity and sensitivity meet the practical work requirements, and the operation is simple. It provides an analytical and identification method for body fluid stains in actual case and is applicable to the identification of the tissue origin of biological evidence at crime scenes involving sexual assault, indecent assault, and other criminal acts. In the future, more types of body fluid markers will be screened to expand the types of body fluids detected by the system, and body fluid-specific cSNP and cInDel genetic markers will be introduced to infer the sources (individuals and types) of mixed and complex stains more accurately.
2.A machine learning-based trajectory predictive modeling method for manual acupuncture manipulation.
Jian KANG ; Li LI ; Shu WANG ; Xiaonong FAN ; Jie CHEN ; Jinniu LI ; Wenqi ZHANG ; Yuhe WEI ; Ziyi CHEN ; Jingqi YANG ; Jingwen YANG ; Chong SU
Chinese Acupuncture & Moxibustion 2025;45(9):1221-1232
OBJECTIVE:
To propose a machine learning-based method for predicting the trajectories during manual acupuncture manipulation (MAM), aiming to improve the precision and consistency of acupuncture practitioner' operation and provide the real-time suggestions on MAM error correction.
METHODS:
Computer vision technology was used to analyze the hand micromotion when holding needle during acupuncture, and provide a three-dimensional coordinate description method of the index finger joints of the holding hand. Focusing on the 4 typical motions of MAM, a machine learning-based MAM trajectory predictive model was designed. By integrating the changes of phalangeal joint angle and hand skeletal information of acupuncture practitioner, the motion trajectory of the index finger joint was predicted accurately. Besides, the roles of machine learning-based MAM trajectory predictive model in the skill transmission of acupuncture manipulation were verified by stratified randomized controlled trial.
RESULTS:
The performance of MAM trajectory predictive model, based on the long short-term memory network (LSTM), obtained the highest stability and precision, up to 98%. The learning effect was improved when the model applied to the skill transmission of acupuncture manipulation.
CONCLUSION
The machine learning-based MAM predictive model provides acupuncture practitioner with precise action prediction and feedback. It is valuable and significant for the inheritance and error correction of manual operation of acupuncture.
Humans
;
Acupuncture Therapy/instrumentation*
;
Machine Learning
;
Adult
;
Male
;
Female
3.An interpretable machine learning modeling method for the effect of manual acupuncture manipulations on subcutaneous muscle tissue.
Wenqi ZHANG ; Yanan ZHANG ; Yan SHEN ; Chun SUN ; Jie CHEN ; Yuhe WEI ; Jian KANG ; Ziyi CHEN ; Jingqi YANG ; Jingwen YANG ; Chong SU
Chinese Acupuncture & Moxibustion 2025;45(10):1371-1382
OBJECTIVE:
To investigate the effect of manual acupuncture manipulations (MAMs) on subcutaneous muscle tissue, by developing quantitative models of "lifting and thrusting" and "twisting and rotating", based on machine learning techniques.
METHODS:
A depth camera was used to capture the acupuncture operator's hand movements during "lifting and thrusting" and "twisting and rotating" of needle. Simultaneously, the ultrasound imaging was employed to record the muscle tissue responses of the participants. Amplitude and angular features were extracted from the movement data of operators, and muscle fascicle slope features were derived from the data of ultrasound images. The dynamic time warping barycenter averaging algorithm was adopted to align the dual-source data. Various machine learning techniques were applied to build quantitative models, and the performance of each model was compared. The most optimal model was further analyzed for its interpretability.
RESULTS:
Among the quantitative models built for the two types of MAMs, the random forest model demonstrated the best performance. For the quantitative model of the "lifting and thrusting" technique, the coefficient of determination (R2) was 0.825. For the "twisting and rotating" technique, R2 reached 0.872.
CONCLUSION
Machine learning can be used to effectively develop the models and quantify the effects of MAMs on subcutaneous muscle tissue. It provides a new perspective to understand the mechanism of acupuncture therapy and lays a foundation for optimizing acupuncture technology and designing personalized treatment regimen in the future.
Humans
;
Acupuncture Therapy/methods*
;
Machine Learning
;
Male
;
Adult
;
Female
;
Subcutaneous Tissue/diagnostic imaging*
;
Young Adult
4.Phase changes and quantity-quality transfer of raw material, calcined decoction pieces, and standard decoction of Ostreae Concha (Ostrea rivularis).
Hong-Yi ZHANG ; Jing-Wei ZHOU ; Jia-Wen LIU ; Wen-Bo FEI ; Shi-Ru HUANG ; Yu-Mei CHEN ; Chong-Yang LI ; Fei-Fei LI ; Qiao-Ling MA ; Fu WANG ; Yuan HU ; You-Ping LIU ; Shi-Lin CHEN ; Lin CHEN ; Hong-Ping CHEN
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(5):1209-1223
The phase changes and quantity-quality transfer of 17 batches of Ostreae Concha(Ostrea rivularis) during the raw material-calcined decoction pieces-standard decoction process were analyzed. The content of calcium carbonate(CaCO_3), the main component, was determined by chemical titration, and the extract yield and transfer rate were calculated. The CaCO_3 content in the raw material, calcined decoction pieces, and standard decoction was 94.39%-98.80%, 95.03%-99.22%, and 84.58%-90.47%, respectively. The process of raw material to calcined decoction pieces showed the yield range of 96.85% to 98.55% and the CaCO_3 transfer rate range of 96.92% to 99.27%. The process of calcined decoction pieces to standard decoction showed the extract yield range of 2.86% to 5.48% and the CaCO_3 transfer rate range of 2.59% to 5.13%. The results of X-ray fluorescence(XRF) assay showed that the raw material, calcined decoction pieces, and standard decoction mainly contained Ca, Na, Mg, Si, Br, Cl, Al, Fe, Cr, Mn, and K. The chemometric results showed an increase in the relative content of Cr, Fe, and Si from raw material to calcined decoction pieces and an increase in the relative content of Mg, Al, Br, K, Cl, and Na from calcined decoction pieces to standard decoction. X-ray diffraction(XRD) was employed to establish XRD characteristic patterns of the raw material, calcined decoction pieces, and standard decoction. The XRD results showed that the main phase of all three was calcite, and no transformation of crystalline form or generation of new phase was observed. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy(FTIR) was employed to establish the FTIR characteristic spectra of the raw material, calcined decoction pieces, and standard decoction. The FTIR results showed that the raw material had internal vibrations of O-H, C-H, C=O, C-O, and CO■ groups. Due to the loss of organic matter components after calcination, no information about the vibrations of C-H, C=O, and C-O groups was observed in the spectra of calcined decoction pieces and standard decoction. In summary, this study elucidated the quantity-quality transfer and phase changes in the raw material-calcined decoction pieces-standard decoction process by determining the CaCO_3 content, calculating the extract yield and transfer rate, and comparing the element changes, FTIR characteristic spectra, and XRD characteristic pattern. The results were reasonable and reliable, laying a foundation for the subsequent process research and quality control of the formula granules of calcined Ostreae Concha(O. rivularis Gould), and providing ideas and methods for the quality control of the whole process of raw material-decoction pieces-standard decoction-formula granules of Ostreae Concha and other testacean traditional Chinese medicine.
Drugs, Chinese Herbal/isolation & purification*
;
Calcium Carbonate/analysis*
;
Quality Control
5.Comparison of clinical efficacy of transmetatarsal incision and lateral soft tissue release of medial incision combined with Scarf osteotomy in the treatment of moderate to severe hallux valgus.
Feng-Ping WEN ; Xing LIU ; Chong-Yang CHEN ; Shi-Kun TIAN
China Journal of Orthopaedics and Traumatology 2025;38(6):559-565
OBJECTIVE:
To compare clinical efficacy of intermetatarsal incision and lateral soft tissue release of medial incision combined with Scarf osteotomy in treating moderate to severe hallux valgus (HV).
METHODS:
A retrospective analysis was conducted on clinical data of 42 patients with moderate to severe HV admitted from January 2022 to December 2022. According to different incisions, the patients were divided into medial incision group with 22 patients (22 feet) and intermetatarsal incision group with 20 patients (20 feet). In medial incision group, there were 3 males and 19 females, aged from 40 to 69 years old with an average of (55.0±11.4) years old;body mass index (BMI) ranged from 21 to 29 kg·m-2 with an average of (25.2±2.1) kg·m-2;the courses of disease ranged from 8 to 16 years with average of (12.0±2.2) years;11 patients with moderate deformity and 11 patients with severe deformity. In transplantar incision group, there were 3 males and 17 females, aged from 39 to 68 years old with an average of (53.0±7.5) years old;BMI ranged from 20 to 28 kg·m-2 with an average of (24.8±1.9) kg·m-2;the courses of disease ranged from 9 to 17 years with an average of (14.0±3.1) years;9 patients with moderate deformity and 11 patients with severe deformity. Hallux valgus angle (HVA) and the first-second intermetatarsal angle (IMA), American Orthopaedic Foot and Ankle Society (AOFAS) forefoot scores and complications between two groups before operation and 12 months after operation were observed and compared.
RESULTS:
All patients were successfully completed the surgery and were followed up for 12 to 15 months with an average of (13.52±1.65) months. There were no statistically significant difference in HVA and IMA between two groups before operation and 12 months after operation (P>0.05). AOFAS forefoot scores of medial incision group before operation and 12 months after operation were (45.0±6.8) and (86.0±6.7) respectively, and those of transmetatarsal incision group were (46.0±7.4) and (83.0±7.5) respectively. Postoperative AOFAS forefoot scores between two groups at 12 months were statistically significant compared with those of before operation (P<0.01). According to AOFAS forefoot scores, 8 patients got excellent result, 14 good in medial incision group;while 6 excellent and 14 good in transplantar incision group. At 12 months, postoperative AOFAS forefoot score of functional score of in medial incision group(38.0±2.5), was better than that in transplantar incision group (34.0±2.2), and the difference was statistically significant (P<0.05). One patient in medial incision group occurred HV deformity, mild numbness occurred in 3 toes in transplantar incision group, and 3 patients were dissatisfied with scar. No complications such as infection, nonunion of bones or ischemic necrosis of metatarsal heads occurred in either group.
CONCLUSION
Both intermetatarsal incision and lateral soft tissue release of medial incision combined with Scarf osteotomy can effectively treat moderate to severe HV. The functional recovery after medial incision is better than that after intermetatarsal incision.
Humans
;
Male
;
Female
;
Hallux Valgus/physiopathology*
;
Middle Aged
;
Osteotomy/methods*
;
Adult
;
Aged
;
Retrospective Studies
;
Treatment Outcome
;
Metatarsal Bones/surgery*
6.Efficacy and safety of inhaled salbutamol sulfate combined with beclomethasone dipropionate in children with bronchial asthma: a randomized controlled study.
Chinese Journal of Contemporary Pediatrics 2025;27(11):1373-1377
OBJECTIVES:
To investigate the efficacy and safety of inhaled salbutamol sulfate combined with beclomethasone dipropionate in the treatment of pediatric bronchial asthma.
METHODS:
A total of 106 children with bronchial asthma treated from December 2022 to November 2023 were randomly assigned to a control group (n=53) and a treatment group (n=53). The control group received conventional symptomatic management plus salbutamol sulfate, while the treatment group received additional inhaled beclomethasone dipropionate. The symptom relief time, asthma control status, complete blood count parameters, interleukin-4 (IL-4) levels, interferon-γ (IFN-γ) levels, infection incidence, and adverse event rate were compared between the two groups.
RESULTS:
Compared with the control group, the treatment group had shorter times to symptom relief and complete symptom resolution (P<0.05). After 7 days of therapy, the treatment group showed higher asthma control score, IFN-γ level, and lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio than the control group (P<0.05), and lower neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, eosinophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, IL-4 level, infection incidence, and overall adverse event rate (P<0.05).
CONCLUSIONS
Inhaled salbutamol sulfate combined with beclomethasone dipropionate improves clinical efficacy, promotes T helper 1/T helper 2 immune balance, optimizes multiple hematologic indices, and demonstrates good safety in children with bronchial asthma.
Humans
;
Beclomethasone/adverse effects*
;
Asthma/immunology*
;
Albuterol/adverse effects*
;
Male
;
Female
;
Child
;
Administration, Inhalation
;
Child, Preschool
;
Interleukin-4/blood*
;
Interferon-gamma/blood*
;
Adolescent
;
Drug Therapy, Combination
7.Association between Fish Consumption and Stroke Incidence Across Different Predicted Risk Populations: A Prospective Cohort Study from China.
Hong Yue HU ; Fang Chao LIU ; Ke Yong HUANG ; Chong SHEN ; Jian LIAO ; Jian Xin LI ; Chen Xi YUAN ; Ying LI ; Xue Li YANG ; Ji Chun CHEN ; Jie CAO ; Shu Feng CHEN ; Dong Sheng HU ; Jian Feng HUANG ; Xiang Feng LU ; Dong Feng GU
Biomedical and Environmental Sciences 2025;38(1):15-26
OBJECTIVE:
The relationship between fish consumption and stroke is inconsistent, and it is uncertain whether this association varies across predicted stroke risks.
METHODS:
A cohort study comprising 95,800 participants from the Prediction for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk in China project was conducted. A standardized questionnaire was used to collect data on fish consumption. Participants were stratified into low- and moderate-to-high-risk categories based on their 10-year stroke risk prediction scores. Hazard ratios ( HRs) and 95% confidence intervals ( CIs) were estimated using Cox proportional hazard models and additive interaction by relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI), attributable proportion (AP), and synergy index (SI).
RESULTS:
During 703,869 person-years of follow-up, 2,773 incident stroke events were identified. Higher fish consumption was associated with a lower risk of stroke, particularly among moderate-to-high-risk individuals ( HR = 0.53, 95% CI: 0.47-0.60) than among low-risk individuals ( HR = 0.64, 95% CI: 0.49-0.85). A significant additive interaction between fish consumption and predicted stroke risk was observed (RERI = 4.08, 95% CI: 2.80-5.36; SI = 1.64, 95% CI: 1.42-1.89; AP = 0.36, 95% CI: 0.28-0.43).
CONCLUSION
Higher fish consumption was associated with a lower risk of stroke, and this beneficial association was more pronounced in individuals with moderate-to-high stroke risk.
Humans
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Male
;
Female
;
Stroke/etiology*
;
Middle Aged
;
Prospective Studies
;
Incidence
;
Aged
;
Animals
;
Fishes
;
Risk Factors
;
Diet
;
Seafood
;
Adult
;
Cohort Studies
8.Independent and Interactive Effects of Air Pollutants, Meteorological Factors, and Green Space on Tuberculosis Incidence in Shanghai.
Qi YE ; Jing CHEN ; Ya Ting JI ; Xiao Yu LU ; Jia le DENG ; Nan LI ; Wei WEI ; Ren Jie HOU ; Zhi Yuan LI ; Jian Bang XIANG ; Xu GAO ; Xin SHEN ; Chong Guang YANG
Biomedical and Environmental Sciences 2025;38(7):792-809
OBJECTIVE:
To assess the independent and combined effects of air pollutants, meteorological factors, and greenspace exposure on new tuberculosis (TB) cases.
METHODS:
TB case data from Shanghai (2013-2018) were obtained from the Shanghai Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Environmental data on air pollutants, meteorological variables, and greenspace exposure were obtained from the National Tibetan Plateau Data Center. We employed a distributed-lag nonlinear model to assess the effects of these environmental factors on TB cases.
RESULTS:
Increased TB risk was linked to PM 2.5, PM 10, and rainfall, whereas NO 2, SO 2, and air pressure were associated with a reduced risk. Specifically, the strongest cumulative effects occurred at various lags: PM 2.5 ( RR = 1.166, 95% CI: 1.026-1.325) at 0-19 weeks; PM 10 ( RR = 1.167, 95% CI: 1.028-1.324) at 0-18 weeks; NO 2 ( RR = 0.968, 95% CI: 0.938-0.999) at 0-1 weeks; SO 2 ( RR = 0.945, 95% CI: 0.894-0.999) at 0-2 weeks; air pressure ( RR = 0.604, 95% CI: 0.447-0.816) at 0-8 weeks; and rainfall ( RR = 1.404, 95% CI: 1.076-1.833) at 0-22 weeks. Green space exposure did not significantly impact TB cases. Additionally, low temperatures amplified the effect of PM 2.5 on TB.
CONCLUSION
Exposure to PM 2.5, PM 10, and rainfall increased the risk of TB, highlighting the need to address air pollutants for the prevention of TB in Shanghai.
China/epidemiology*
;
Humans
;
Air Pollutants/analysis*
;
Tuberculosis/epidemiology*
;
Incidence
;
Meteorological Concepts
;
Particulate Matter/adverse effects*
;
Environmental Exposure
;
Male
;
Female
;
Adult
;
Air Pollution
;
Middle Aged
9.Exploration and validation of optimal cut-off values for tPSA and fPSA/tPSA screening of prostate cancer at different ages
Xiaomin LIU ; Hongyuan DUAN ; Dongqi ZHANG ; Chong CHEN ; Yuting JI ; Yunmeng ZHANG ; Zhuowei FENG ; Ya LIU ; Jingjing LI ; Yu ZHANG ; Chenyang LI ; Yacong ZHANG ; Lei YANG ; Zhangyan LYU ; Fangfang SONG ; Fengju SONG ; Yubei HUANG
Chinese Journal of Oncology 2024;46(4):354-364
Objective:To determine the total and age-specific cut-off values of total prostate specific antigen (tPSA) and the ratio of free PSA divided total PSA (fPSA/tPSA) for screening prostate cancer in China.Methods:Based on the Chinese Colorectal, Breast, Lung, Liver, and Stomach cancer Screening Trial (C-BLAST) and the Tianjin Common Cancer Case Cohort (TJ4C), males who were not diagnosed with any cancers at baseline since 2017 and received both tPSA and fPSA testes were selected. Based on Cox regression, the overall and age-specific (<60, 60-<70, and ≥70 years) accuracy and optimal cut-off values of tPSA and fPSA/tPSA ratio for screening prostate cancer were evaluated with time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (tdROC) and area under curve (AUC). Bootstrap resampling was used to internally validate the stability of the optimal cut-off value, and the PLCO study was used to externally validate the accuracy under different cut-off values.Results:A total of 5 180 participants were included in the study, and after a median follow-up of 1.48 years, a total of 332 prostate cancer patients were included. In the total population, the tdAUC of tPSA and fPSA/tPSA screening for prostate cancer were 0.852 and 0.748, respectively, with the optimal cut-off values of 5.08 ng/ml and 0.173, respectively. After age stratification, the age specific cut-off values of tPSA in the <60, 60-<70, and ≥70 age groups were 3.13, 4.82, and 11.54 ng/ml, respectively, while the age-specific cut-off values of fPSA/tPSA were 0.153, 0.135, and 0.130, respectively. Under the age-specific cut-off values, the sensitivities of tPSA screening for prostate cancer in males <60, 60-70, and ≥70 years old were 92.3%, 82.0%, and 77.6%, respectively, while the specificities were 84.7%, 81.3%, and 75.4%, respectively. The age-specific sensitivities of fPSA/tPSA for screening prostate cancer were 74.4%, 53.3%, and 55.9%, respectively, while the specificities were 83.8%, 83.7%, and 83.7%, respectively. Both bootstrap's internal validation and PLCO external validation provided similar results. The combination of tPSA and fPSA/tPSA could further improve the accuracy of screening.Conclusion:To improve the screening effects, it is recommended that age-specific cut-off values of tPSA and fPSA/tPSA should be used to screen for prostate cancer in the general risk population.
10.Analysis of the epidemic characteristics of reported pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in Kashgar Prefecture, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region from 2015 to 2022 and establishment of SARIMA prediction
Chong TENG ; Fang XIE ; Bing ZHAO ; Lijie ZHANG ; Hui LI ; Yuanyuan SONG ; Yang ZHENG ; Yang ZHOU ; Jing WANG ; Fei HUANG ; Mingting CHEN ; Xichao OU
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine 2024;58(11):1665-1672
Objective:To analyze the epidemic characteristics of reported tuberculosis incidence in Kashgar from 2015 to 2022, and use the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to predict the incidence, providing references for the local control of pulmonary tuberculosis.Methods:The reported incidence data of tuberculosis in the Kashgar area of Xinjiang from January 2015 to August 2023 were collected through the"Infectious Disease Monitoring System", a subsystem of the "Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System". The epidemic characteristics of reported incidence in this area from 2015 to 2022 were analyzed. Two SARIMA models of monthly reported incidence number and rate were established. The prediction performance of the two models was evaluated using the reported incidence data of tuberculosis from January 2023 to August 2023. The χ2 test was used to analyze population characteristics, and the Cochran-Armitage trend test was used to analyze annual incidence. Results:From 2015 to 2022, 133 972 cases of pulmonary tuberculosis were reported in Kashgar, with a yearly reported incidence rate of 383.64/100 000, showing a rising trend ( TCA=77.03, P<0.001) and then a declining trend ( TCA=176.16, P<0.001). The proportion of pathogenic positive pulmonary tuberculosis had increased yearly ( TCA=132.66, P<0.001). The reported onset time was concentrated from January to June each year, with a peak in April. Yengisar County, Zepu County and Yopurga County had the highest reported incidence rate in Kashgar. The sex ratio of men to women was 1.03∶1, and the reported incidence rate of men was higher than that of women ( χ2=27.04, P<0.001). The reported incidence rate of the group aged 60 years and older was the highest. The patient′s occupation was mainly farmers (84.99%). The average relative errors of the SARIMA ( 1, 1, 2) ( 0, 1, 1) 12 model and SARIMA ( 0, 1, 1)( 0, 1, 1) 12 model in predicting the reported monthly incidence number and rate were 11.67% and -9.81%, respectively. Both models had good prediction accuracy (MAPE=33.55%, MAPE=38.22%). Conclusion:The average reported incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis in the Kashgar area shows a rising trend first and then a declining trend. The patients are mainly men and farmers, and attention should be paid to the prevention and control of tuberculosis among the elderly in winter and spring. The SARIMA ( 1, 1, 2) ( 0, 1, 1) 12 model and SARIMA ( 0, 1, 1)( 0, 1, 1) 12 model can fit the trend of reported tuberculosis incidence in the Kashgar area well and have good predictive performance.

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