1.Diffusion-weighted imaging features of patent foramen ovale-related cryptogenic stroke and correlation of infarct size with cardiac CT characteristics
Shuang ZHANG ; Chong ZHENG ; Rui QIN ; Wenlei GENG ; Lijie SUN ; Jing LI ; Jie LU
Chinese Journal of Cerebrovascular Diseases 2025;22(7):465-473
Objective To characterize the features of patent foramen ovale(PFO)-related cryptogenic stroke using diffusion-weighted imaging(DWI)and to investigate the correlation between infarct size and cardiac CT characteristics of PFO.Methods A retrospective,consecutive cohort study was conducted on acute ischemic stroke patients admitted to Neurology Department of Xuanwu Hospital,Capital Medical University from January 2022 to September 2024.Patients were categorized into PFO group,arterio-arterial embolism(AAE)group,and atrial fibrillation(AF)group based on etiological diagnosis.Baseline clinical data,including age,height,body mass index,admission National Institutes of Health stroke scale(NIHSS)score,history of old cerebral infarction,hypertension,diabetes mellitus,coronary heart disease,dyslipidemia,and smoking history were collected and compared.All patients underwent head MR within 24 h of admission.DWI was used to analyze and compare infarct characteristics across the three groups,including lesion number(single or multiple),location(cortical+subcortical,deep white matter,cortical+subcortical+deep white matter,cerebellum+thalamus+brainstem),size(≥15 mm or<15 mm,based on maximum transverse diameter;for multiple lesions,if any lesion had a maximum diameter≥15 mm,it was categorized as≥15 mm),infarcted vascular territory(anterior,posterior,or both circulations),and specific arterial supply(anterior cerebral artery,middle cerebral artery,posterior cerebral artery,basilar artery,posterior inferior cerebellar artery,superior cerebellar artery,anterior choroidal artery,or multiple arteries).Patients in the PFO group additionally underwent cardiac CT to measure PFO-related parameters:tunnel length,width,height,septum secundum thickness,and fossa ovalis length.Spearman correlation analysis was performed to evaluate the relationship between infarct size and PFO cardiac CT features.Results A total of 232 acute ischemic stroke patients were included(mean age[57±17]years,ranged 19-86 years;141 males,91 females),comprising 116 in the PFO group,36 in the AAE group,and 80 in the AF group.(1)The proportion of males in the PFO group was higher than that in the AF group,it was lower than that in the AAE group.The age,body mass index and proportions of patients with hypertension,diabetes,hyperlipidemia,coronary heart disease were all lower than those in the other two groups(both P<0.016 7),while other baseline characteristics showed no significant differences(all P>0.05).(2)The PFO group exhibited a higher proportion of multiple infarcts compared to the AAE group(83.62%[97/116]vs.61.11%[22/36],P<0.016 7),but a lower proportion than the AF group(83.62%[97/116]vs.98.75%[79/80],P<0.016 7).The PFO group also showed a significantly higher proportion of cortical+subcortical infarcts(47.41%[55/116]vs.11.11%[4/36]and 6.25%[5/80],respectively,both P<0.016 7)and infarcts with a maximum diameter<15 mm compared to both AAE and AF groups(66.38%[77/116]vs.36.11%[13/36]and 11.25%[9/80],respectively,both P<0.016 7).Furthermore,the PFO group had a lower proportion of anterior circulation infarcts(27.59%[32/116]vs.69.44%[25/36]in AAE group and 67.50%[54/80]in AF group,both P<0.016 7),but a higher proportion of posterior circulation infarcts(62.07%[72/116]vs.16.67%[6/36]in AAE group and 8.75%[7/80]in AF group,both P<0.016 7).Specifically,middle cerebral artery infarcts were less common in the PFO group(18.97%[22/116]vs.66.67%[24/36]in AAE group and 52.50%[42/80]in AF group,both P<0.016 7),while posterior cerebral artery infarcts were more common(48.28%[56/116]vs.8.33%[3/36]in AAE group and 8.75%[7/80]in AF group,both P<0.016 7).(3)Spearman correlation analysis revealed that infarct size was negatively correlated with PFO tunnel length(rs=-0.429,P=0.029),fossa ovalis length(rs=-0.408,P=0.038),and septum secundum thickness(rs=-0.525,P=0.006),but not correlated with PFO width or height(both P>0.05).Conclusions PFO-related cryptogenic stroke is predominantly characterized by multiple small infarcts,primarily located in the cortical+subcortical regions and posterior circulation.Infarct size was found to be negatively correlated with PFO tunnel length,fossa ovalis length,and septum secundum thickness.Comprehensive assessment integrating DWI and cardiac CT features may facilitate the identification of PFO-related stroke.These findings warrant further validation through larger,prospective studies.
2.Risk factors of thyroid nodules in patients with type 2 diabetes
Chong WANG ; Lanxin KONG ; Shuzhen WANG ; Xiumin ZHANG ; Junqi MA ; Jing KANG ; Qing LI ; Lihua JIANG ; Zheng SHEN ; Li AI
Chinese Journal of Endemiology 2025;44(10):851-853
Objective:To study the risk factors of thyroid nodules in patients with type 2 diabetes.Methods:Data of patients with type 2 diabetes with normal thyroid function admitted to the Department of Endocrinology of Heze Municipal Hospital from January to June 2024 were collected. Binary logistic regression was used to analyze the influencing factors of thyroid nodules in patients with type 2 diabetes, and the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve) was used to evaluate the diagnostic efficacy of each influencing factor.Results:Among 162 patients with type 2 diabetes, 96 had thyroid nodules, accounting for 59.3%. The incidence of thyroid nodules in women was significantly higher than that in men (χ 2 = 4.56, P = 0.034). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age (≥50 years old), overweight and obesity [body mass index (BMI)≥24.0 kg/m 2], high glycated hemoglobin (≥10%), and high total cholesterol ( > 6.5 mmol/L) were independent risk factors for thyroid nodules in patients with type 2 diabetes ( OR = 1.83, 1.67, 1.08, 3.65, P < 0.05), and men was an independent protective factor ( OR = 0.63, P = 0.039). The ROC curve results showed that total cholesterol and total cholesterol combined with glycated hemoglobin could distinguish patients with thyroid nodules from those without thyroid nodules, with AUC = 0.64 and 0.68, respectively, and the differences were statistically significant ( P < 0.05). Conclusions:The incidence of thyroid nodules in patients with type 2 diabetes is relatively high. Age, overweight and obesity, high glycated hemoglobin, and high total cholesterol are independent risk factors for thyroid nodules in patients with type 2 diabetes, and total cholesterol has the ability to distinguish patients with thyroid nodules.
3.Diffusion-weighted imaging features of patent foramen ovale-related cryptogenic stroke and correlation of infarct size with cardiac CT characteristics
Shuang ZHANG ; Chong ZHENG ; Rui QIN ; Wenlei GENG ; Lijie SUN ; Jing LI ; Jie LU
Chinese Journal of Cerebrovascular Diseases 2025;22(7):465-473
Objective To characterize the features of patent foramen ovale(PFO)-related cryptogenic stroke using diffusion-weighted imaging(DWI)and to investigate the correlation between infarct size and cardiac CT characteristics of PFO.Methods A retrospective,consecutive cohort study was conducted on acute ischemic stroke patients admitted to Neurology Department of Xuanwu Hospital,Capital Medical University from January 2022 to September 2024.Patients were categorized into PFO group,arterio-arterial embolism(AAE)group,and atrial fibrillation(AF)group based on etiological diagnosis.Baseline clinical data,including age,height,body mass index,admission National Institutes of Health stroke scale(NIHSS)score,history of old cerebral infarction,hypertension,diabetes mellitus,coronary heart disease,dyslipidemia,and smoking history were collected and compared.All patients underwent head MR within 24 h of admission.DWI was used to analyze and compare infarct characteristics across the three groups,including lesion number(single or multiple),location(cortical+subcortical,deep white matter,cortical+subcortical+deep white matter,cerebellum+thalamus+brainstem),size(≥15 mm or<15 mm,based on maximum transverse diameter;for multiple lesions,if any lesion had a maximum diameter≥15 mm,it was categorized as≥15 mm),infarcted vascular territory(anterior,posterior,or both circulations),and specific arterial supply(anterior cerebral artery,middle cerebral artery,posterior cerebral artery,basilar artery,posterior inferior cerebellar artery,superior cerebellar artery,anterior choroidal artery,or multiple arteries).Patients in the PFO group additionally underwent cardiac CT to measure PFO-related parameters:tunnel length,width,height,septum secundum thickness,and fossa ovalis length.Spearman correlation analysis was performed to evaluate the relationship between infarct size and PFO cardiac CT features.Results A total of 232 acute ischemic stroke patients were included(mean age[57±17]years,ranged 19-86 years;141 males,91 females),comprising 116 in the PFO group,36 in the AAE group,and 80 in the AF group.(1)The proportion of males in the PFO group was higher than that in the AF group,it was lower than that in the AAE group.The age,body mass index and proportions of patients with hypertension,diabetes,hyperlipidemia,coronary heart disease were all lower than those in the other two groups(both P<0.016 7),while other baseline characteristics showed no significant differences(all P>0.05).(2)The PFO group exhibited a higher proportion of multiple infarcts compared to the AAE group(83.62%[97/116]vs.61.11%[22/36],P<0.016 7),but a lower proportion than the AF group(83.62%[97/116]vs.98.75%[79/80],P<0.016 7).The PFO group also showed a significantly higher proportion of cortical+subcortical infarcts(47.41%[55/116]vs.11.11%[4/36]and 6.25%[5/80],respectively,both P<0.016 7)and infarcts with a maximum diameter<15 mm compared to both AAE and AF groups(66.38%[77/116]vs.36.11%[13/36]and 11.25%[9/80],respectively,both P<0.016 7).Furthermore,the PFO group had a lower proportion of anterior circulation infarcts(27.59%[32/116]vs.69.44%[25/36]in AAE group and 67.50%[54/80]in AF group,both P<0.016 7),but a higher proportion of posterior circulation infarcts(62.07%[72/116]vs.16.67%[6/36]in AAE group and 8.75%[7/80]in AF group,both P<0.016 7).Specifically,middle cerebral artery infarcts were less common in the PFO group(18.97%[22/116]vs.66.67%[24/36]in AAE group and 52.50%[42/80]in AF group,both P<0.016 7),while posterior cerebral artery infarcts were more common(48.28%[56/116]vs.8.33%[3/36]in AAE group and 8.75%[7/80]in AF group,both P<0.016 7).(3)Spearman correlation analysis revealed that infarct size was negatively correlated with PFO tunnel length(rs=-0.429,P=0.029),fossa ovalis length(rs=-0.408,P=0.038),and septum secundum thickness(rs=-0.525,P=0.006),but not correlated with PFO width or height(both P>0.05).Conclusions PFO-related cryptogenic stroke is predominantly characterized by multiple small infarcts,primarily located in the cortical+subcortical regions and posterior circulation.Infarct size was found to be negatively correlated with PFO tunnel length,fossa ovalis length,and septum secundum thickness.Comprehensive assessment integrating DWI and cardiac CT features may facilitate the identification of PFO-related stroke.These findings warrant further validation through larger,prospective studies.
4.Short-term Effects of Fine Particulate Matter and its Constituents on Acute Exacerbations of Chronic Bronchitis: A Time-stratified Case-crossover Study.
Jing Wei ZHANG ; Jian ZHANG ; Peng Fei LI ; Yan Dan XU ; Xue Song ZHOU ; Xiu Li TANG ; Jia QIU ; Zhong Ao DING ; Ming Jia XU ; Chong Jian WANG
Biomedical and Environmental Sciences 2025;38(3):389-393
5.Risk factors for cardiopulmonary dysfunction after ligation of hemodynamically significant patent ductus arteriosus in preterm infants.
Chong-Chong LIU ; Yong LIU ; Yi ZHANG ; Dai-Cheng HAN ; Rui-Jing HE ; Shi-Wen XIA
Chinese Journal of Contemporary Pediatrics 2025;27(4):425-431
OBJECTIVES:
To investigate the risk factors for the occurrence of cardiopulmonary dysfunction following ligation of hemodynamically significant patent ductus arteriosus (hsPDA) in preterm infants.
METHODS:
A retrospective collection of clinical data was conducted on preterm infants with a gestational age of <34 weeks who were admitted to the Maternal and Child Health Hospital of Hubei Province, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology from January 2018 to August 2024. These infants underwent hsPDA ligation after 1-2 courses of failed ibuprofen treatment. Based on the occurrence of blood pressure changes and oxygenation or ventilation failure postoperatively, the infants were divided into a cardiopulmonary dysfunction group (19 cases) and a non-cardiopulmonary dysfunction group (40 cases). Binary logistic regression analysis was performed to explore risk factors for postoperative cardiopulmonary dysfunction.
RESULTS:
Binary logistic regression analysis indicated that a faster average weight gain rate preoperatively and low levels of free triiodothyronine (FT3) within one week before surgery were risk factors for cardiopulmonary dysfunction following hsPDA ligation (P<0.05). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that an average weight gain rate >11.45 g/(kg·d) and FT3 levels <2.785 pmol/L within one week before surgery had predictive value for postoperative cardiopulmonary dysfunction (P<0.05). The combination of these two indicators provided the highest predictive value (P<0.05), with an area under the curve of 0.825, a sensitivity of 79%, and a specificity of 75%.
CONCLUSIONS
An average weight gain rate exceeding 11.45 g/(kg·d) and FT3 levels below 2.785 pmol/L within one week before surgery are risk factors affecting cardiopulmonary function after hsPDA ligation. Preoperative assessment and intervention should be strengthened to reduce the risk of postoperative complications.
Humans
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Ductus Arteriosus, Patent/physiopathology*
;
Risk Factors
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Female
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Infant, Newborn
;
Male
;
Retrospective Studies
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Infant, Premature
;
Ligation/adverse effects*
;
Hemodynamics
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Postoperative Complications/etiology*
;
Logistic Models
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Lung Diseases/etiology*
6.Effects of Rehmanniae Radix Praeparata on striatal neuronal apoptosis in ADHD rats via Bcl-2/Bax/caspase-3 pathway.
Jing WANG ; Kang-Lin ZHU ; Xin-Qiang NI ; Wen-Hua CAI ; Yu-Ting YANG ; Jia-Qi ZHANG ; Chong ZHOU ; Mei-Jun SHI
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(3):750-757
This study investigated the effects of Rehmanniae Radix Praeparata on striatal neuronal apoptosis in rats with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder(ADHD) based on the B-cell lymphoma-2(Bcl-2)/Bcl-2-associated X protein(Bax)/caspase-3 signaling pathway. Twenty-four 3-week-old male spontaneously hypertensive rats(SHR) were randomly divided into a model group, a methylphenidate group(2 mg·kg~(-1)·d~(-1)), and a Rehmanniae Radix Praeparata group(2.4 mg·kg~(-1)·d~(-1)). Age-matched male Wistar Kyoto(WKY) rats were used as the normal control group, with 8 rats in each group. The rats were administered by gavage for 28 days. Body weight and food intake were recorded for each group. The open field test and elevated plus maze test were used to assess hyperactivity and impulsive behaviors. Nissl staining was used to detect changes in striatal neurons and Nissl bodies. Terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase dUTP nick end labeling(TUNEL) fluorescence staining was used to detect striatal cell apoptosis. Western blot was employed to detect the expression levels of Bcl-2, Bax, and caspase-3 proteins in the striatum. The results showed that compared with the model group, Rehmanniae Radix Praeparata significantly reduced the total movement distance, average movement speed, and central area residence time in the open field test, and significantly reduced the ratio of open arm entries, open arm stay time, and head dipping in the elevated plus maze test. Furthermore, it increased the number of Nissl bodies in striatal neurons, significantly downregulated the apoptosis index, significantly increased Bcl-2 protein expression and the Bcl-2/Bax ratio, and reduced Bax and caspase-3 protein expression. In conclusion, Rehmanniae Radix Praeparata can reduce hyperactivity and impulsive behaviors in ADHD rats. Its mechanism may be related to the regulation of the Bcl-2/Bax/caspase-3 signaling pathway in the striatum, enhancing the anti-apoptotic capacity of striatal neurons.
Animals
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Male
;
Apoptosis/drug effects*
;
Rats
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Drugs, Chinese Herbal/administration & dosage*
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Caspase 3/genetics*
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Proto-Oncogene Proteins c-bcl-2/genetics*
;
bcl-2-Associated X Protein/genetics*
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Rehmannia/chemistry*
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Attention Deficit Disorder with Hyperactivity/physiopathology*
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Signal Transduction/drug effects*
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Neurons/cytology*
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Rats, Inbred SHR
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Rats, Inbred WKY
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Humans
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Corpus Striatum/cytology*
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Plant Extracts
7.Phase changes and quantity-quality transfer of raw material, calcined decoction pieces, and standard decoction of Ostreae Concha (Ostrea rivularis).
Hong-Yi ZHANG ; Jing-Wei ZHOU ; Jia-Wen LIU ; Wen-Bo FEI ; Shi-Ru HUANG ; Yu-Mei CHEN ; Chong-Yang LI ; Fei-Fei LI ; Qiao-Ling MA ; Fu WANG ; Yuan HU ; You-Ping LIU ; Shi-Lin CHEN ; Lin CHEN ; Hong-Ping CHEN
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(5):1209-1223
The phase changes and quantity-quality transfer of 17 batches of Ostreae Concha(Ostrea rivularis) during the raw material-calcined decoction pieces-standard decoction process were analyzed. The content of calcium carbonate(CaCO_3), the main component, was determined by chemical titration, and the extract yield and transfer rate were calculated. The CaCO_3 content in the raw material, calcined decoction pieces, and standard decoction was 94.39%-98.80%, 95.03%-99.22%, and 84.58%-90.47%, respectively. The process of raw material to calcined decoction pieces showed the yield range of 96.85% to 98.55% and the CaCO_3 transfer rate range of 96.92% to 99.27%. The process of calcined decoction pieces to standard decoction showed the extract yield range of 2.86% to 5.48% and the CaCO_3 transfer rate range of 2.59% to 5.13%. The results of X-ray fluorescence(XRF) assay showed that the raw material, calcined decoction pieces, and standard decoction mainly contained Ca, Na, Mg, Si, Br, Cl, Al, Fe, Cr, Mn, and K. The chemometric results showed an increase in the relative content of Cr, Fe, and Si from raw material to calcined decoction pieces and an increase in the relative content of Mg, Al, Br, K, Cl, and Na from calcined decoction pieces to standard decoction. X-ray diffraction(XRD) was employed to establish XRD characteristic patterns of the raw material, calcined decoction pieces, and standard decoction. The XRD results showed that the main phase of all three was calcite, and no transformation of crystalline form or generation of new phase was observed. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy(FTIR) was employed to establish the FTIR characteristic spectra of the raw material, calcined decoction pieces, and standard decoction. The FTIR results showed that the raw material had internal vibrations of O-H, C-H, C=O, C-O, and CO■ groups. Due to the loss of organic matter components after calcination, no information about the vibrations of C-H, C=O, and C-O groups was observed in the spectra of calcined decoction pieces and standard decoction. In summary, this study elucidated the quantity-quality transfer and phase changes in the raw material-calcined decoction pieces-standard decoction process by determining the CaCO_3 content, calculating the extract yield and transfer rate, and comparing the element changes, FTIR characteristic spectra, and XRD characteristic pattern. The results were reasonable and reliable, laying a foundation for the subsequent process research and quality control of the formula granules of calcined Ostreae Concha(O. rivularis Gould), and providing ideas and methods for the quality control of the whole process of raw material-decoction pieces-standard decoction-formula granules of Ostreae Concha and other testacean traditional Chinese medicine.
Drugs, Chinese Herbal/isolation & purification*
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Calcium Carbonate/analysis*
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Quality Control
8.Risk factors of thyroid nodules in patients with type 2 diabetes
Chong WANG ; Lanxin KONG ; Shuzhen WANG ; Xiumin ZHANG ; Junqi MA ; Jing KANG ; Qing LI ; Lihua JIANG ; Zheng SHEN ; Li AI
Chinese Journal of Endemiology 2025;44(10):851-853
Objective:To study the risk factors of thyroid nodules in patients with type 2 diabetes.Methods:Data of patients with type 2 diabetes with normal thyroid function admitted to the Department of Endocrinology of Heze Municipal Hospital from January to June 2024 were collected. Binary logistic regression was used to analyze the influencing factors of thyroid nodules in patients with type 2 diabetes, and the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve) was used to evaluate the diagnostic efficacy of each influencing factor.Results:Among 162 patients with type 2 diabetes, 96 had thyroid nodules, accounting for 59.3%. The incidence of thyroid nodules in women was significantly higher than that in men (χ 2 = 4.56, P = 0.034). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age (≥50 years old), overweight and obesity [body mass index (BMI)≥24.0 kg/m 2], high glycated hemoglobin (≥10%), and high total cholesterol ( > 6.5 mmol/L) were independent risk factors for thyroid nodules in patients with type 2 diabetes ( OR = 1.83, 1.67, 1.08, 3.65, P < 0.05), and men was an independent protective factor ( OR = 0.63, P = 0.039). The ROC curve results showed that total cholesterol and total cholesterol combined with glycated hemoglobin could distinguish patients with thyroid nodules from those without thyroid nodules, with AUC = 0.64 and 0.68, respectively, and the differences were statistically significant ( P < 0.05). Conclusions:The incidence of thyroid nodules in patients with type 2 diabetes is relatively high. Age, overweight and obesity, high glycated hemoglobin, and high total cholesterol are independent risk factors for thyroid nodules in patients with type 2 diabetes, and total cholesterol has the ability to distinguish patients with thyroid nodules.
9.Pathogenic investigation of human respiratory syncytial virus infection in kindergarten children in Tongzhou District, Beijing City in 2023
Lin ZOU ; Chong ZHANG ; Ling TONG ; Xiao LIU ; Jing MA ; Jianguo WANG ; Fang WANG ; Xiang GAO ; Lu XI ; Jianming ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine 2024;58(8):1150-1153
The study focused on individuals with influenza-like symptoms (fever, cough, sore throat, runny nose, and other respiratory symptoms) in three kindergartens in Tongzhou District, Beijing City, in April 2023. Nasopharyngeal swab specimens were collected, and real-time fluorescent quantitative PCR was used to detect common respiratory pathogens in the collected specimens. Positive specimens were subjected to sequencing analysis of the highly variable region of human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) G protein, homology analysis and phylogenetic tree analysis. A total of 25 fever cases were collected from 3 kindergartens, aged 3-8 years old, with an age M ( Q1, Q3) of 4 (3.5, 5) years old. Ten confirmed cases of HRSV positive were screened and detected using the fluorescent quantitative PCR method, with a total detection rate of 40% (10/25). Typing identification and sequencing analysis confirmed that the main epidemic type was HRSV subtype B, which was highly homologous and closely related to previous epidemic strains in the region. Through pathogen investigation and analysis, it was preliminarily determined that this epidemic was dominated by HRSV subtype B.
10.Analysis of the epidemic characteristics of reported pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in Kashgar Prefecture, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region from 2015 to 2022 and establishment of SARIMA prediction
Chong TENG ; Fang XIE ; Bing ZHAO ; Lijie ZHANG ; Hui LI ; Yuanyuan SONG ; Yang ZHENG ; Yang ZHOU ; Jing WANG ; Fei HUANG ; Mingting CHEN ; Xichao OU
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine 2024;58(11):1665-1672
Objective:To analyze the epidemic characteristics of reported tuberculosis incidence in Kashgar from 2015 to 2022, and use the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to predict the incidence, providing references for the local control of pulmonary tuberculosis.Methods:The reported incidence data of tuberculosis in the Kashgar area of Xinjiang from January 2015 to August 2023 were collected through the"Infectious Disease Monitoring System", a subsystem of the "Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System". The epidemic characteristics of reported incidence in this area from 2015 to 2022 were analyzed. Two SARIMA models of monthly reported incidence number and rate were established. The prediction performance of the two models was evaluated using the reported incidence data of tuberculosis from January 2023 to August 2023. The χ2 test was used to analyze population characteristics, and the Cochran-Armitage trend test was used to analyze annual incidence. Results:From 2015 to 2022, 133 972 cases of pulmonary tuberculosis were reported in Kashgar, with a yearly reported incidence rate of 383.64/100 000, showing a rising trend ( TCA=77.03, P<0.001) and then a declining trend ( TCA=176.16, P<0.001). The proportion of pathogenic positive pulmonary tuberculosis had increased yearly ( TCA=132.66, P<0.001). The reported onset time was concentrated from January to June each year, with a peak in April. Yengisar County, Zepu County and Yopurga County had the highest reported incidence rate in Kashgar. The sex ratio of men to women was 1.03∶1, and the reported incidence rate of men was higher than that of women ( χ2=27.04, P<0.001). The reported incidence rate of the group aged 60 years and older was the highest. The patient′s occupation was mainly farmers (84.99%). The average relative errors of the SARIMA ( 1, 1, 2) ( 0, 1, 1) 12 model and SARIMA ( 0, 1, 1)( 0, 1, 1) 12 model in predicting the reported monthly incidence number and rate were 11.67% and -9.81%, respectively. Both models had good prediction accuracy (MAPE=33.55%, MAPE=38.22%). Conclusion:The average reported incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis in the Kashgar area shows a rising trend first and then a declining trend. The patients are mainly men and farmers, and attention should be paid to the prevention and control of tuberculosis among the elderly in winter and spring. The SARIMA ( 1, 1, 2) ( 0, 1, 1) 12 model and SARIMA ( 0, 1, 1)( 0, 1, 1) 12 model can fit the trend of reported tuberculosis incidence in the Kashgar area well and have good predictive performance.

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