1.Global burden and predicted trends of diarrheal disease in children under five from 1990 to 2021.
Ying DENG ; Minyi ZHANG ; Shiao WANG ; Shunchang FAN ; Jiaqi CHEN ; Juxian XIAN ; Qing CHEN
Journal of Southern Medical University 2025;45(10):2171-2181
OBJECTIVES:
To conduct a comprehensive analysis of the global burden of diarrheal diseases in children under 5 years.
METHODS:
The data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 were analyzed to assess the incidence, mortality rates and average annual percentage changes (AAPC) of diarrhea among children under 5 years across nations(regions) and GBD regions from 1990 to 2021 using joinpoint regression. Smoothed curve regression was employed to explore the correlation of diarrheal disease burden with the Social Development Index (SDI) and for analyzing the burden of specific diarrheal pathogens. The Slope and Concentration Indices quantified disparities across SDI levels and the future trend were projected by the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model.
RESULTS:
From 1990 to 2021, the global incidence (AAPC: -3.65) and mortality (AAPC: -5.15) rates of diarrheal diseases declined steadily in children below 5 years. In 2021, neonates (<28 days) were the most affected, with an incidence rate of 138 058.74 per 100 000 and a mortality rate of 251.14 per 100 000. Rotavirus was the leading cause of death. The incidence rate of diarrheal diseases was negatively correlated with SDI, and the Concentration Index decreased from -0.293 in 1990 to -0.314 in 2021 without a significant gender difference. The BAPC model suggested that the global incidence rate of diarrheal diseases tends to decrease progressively from 2022 to 2050, with a predicted rate of 23 448.04 per 100 000 for male and 29 932.59 per 100 000 for female by 2050.
CONCLUSIONS
Despite the reduction in the global burden of diarrhea and the projection of its further decline, diarrheal diseases disproportionately affect neonates and low-SDI regions. While rotavirus remains the primary etiological agent worldwide, the predominant pathogens vary by nations (regions) and GBD regions, and strengthened interventions targeting vulnerable populations are needed.
Humans
;
Child, Preschool
;
Diarrhea/mortality*
;
Infant
;
Incidence
;
Infant, Newborn
;
Global Burden of Disease/trends*
;
Global Health
;
Male
;
Bayes Theorem
;
Female
2.Global, regional and national burden and trends of congenital musculoskeletal and limb deformities among under-5 children from 1990 to 2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.
Qinglin YANG ; Zhuanmei JIN ; Yongping WANG
Frontiers of Medicine 2025;19(5):807-819
Congenital musculoskeletal and limb deformities (CMLD) seriously affect the physical and mental health of patients, and pose great challenges to healthcare systems worldwide. We explored the specific situation and changes of incidence, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years rates, and mortality of CMLD in under-5 children from 1990 to 2021 in different groups, including different regions, periods, genders and socio-demographic indices (SDI), through corresponding analytical models. Overall, the global disease burden of CMLD in under-5 children has decreased from 1990 to 2021. The disease burden of CMLD in under-5 children varied significantly among different regions and countries, and there was a strong correlation between the corresponding burden of disease and the level of SDI. In addition, cross-country inequality analysis showed that while absolute inequalities in the disease burden of CMLD in under-5 children have improved, relative inequalities have worsened. It is essential to reduce the global health impact of CMLD by implementing targeted interventions to improve health care in underdeveloped areas.
Humans
;
Global Burden of Disease/trends*
;
Child, Preschool
;
Global Health/statistics & numerical data*
;
Infant
;
Male
;
Prevalence
;
Limb Deformities, Congenital/mortality*
;
Musculoskeletal Abnormalities/mortality*
;
Female
;
Disability-Adjusted Life Years
;
Incidence
;
Infant, Newborn
;
Cost of Illness
;
Socioeconomic Factors
3.The Disease Burden of Asthma in China, 1990 to 2021 and Projections to 2050: Based on the Global Burden of Disease 2021.
Rui Yi ZHANG ; Miao Miao ZHANG ; Yu Chang ZHOU ; Jia Huan GUO ; Xuan Kai WANG ; Mai Geng ZHOU
Biomedical and Environmental Sciences 2025;38(5):529-538
OBJECTIVE:
Asthma imposes a significant global health burden. This study examines changes in the asthma-related disease burden from 1990 to 2021 and projects future burdens for 2050 under different scenarios.
METHODS:
Using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study, we analyzed asthma incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2021. We projected the disease burden for 2050 based on current trends and hypothetical scenarios in which all risk factors are controlled. Temporal trends in age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALY rates were explored using Annual Percent Change.
RESULTS:
In 2021, the age-standardized rates for asthma incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs in China were 364.17 per 100,000 (95% uncertainty interval [ UI]: 283.22-494.10), 1,956.49 per 100,000 (95% UI: 1,566.68-2,491.87), 1.47 per 100,000 (95% UI: 1.15-1.79), and 103.76 per 100,000 (95% UI: 72.50-145.46), respectively. A higher disease burden was observed among Chinese men and individuals aged 70 years or older. Compared to the current trend, a combined scenario involving improvements in environmental factors, behavioral and metabolic health, child nutrition, and vaccination resulted in a greater reduction in the disease burden caused by asthma.
CONCLUSION
Addressing modifiable risk factors is essential for further reducing the asthma-related disease burden.
Humans
;
Asthma/mortality*
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Male
;
Female
;
Adult
;
Middle Aged
;
Aged
;
Child
;
Adolescent
;
Global Burden of Disease/trends*
;
Child, Preschool
;
Young Adult
;
Infant
;
Cost of Illness
;
Disability-Adjusted Life Years
;
Prevalence
;
Incidence
;
Infant, Newborn
;
Aged, 80 and over
;
Risk Factors
4.Paediatric palliative care at home: a single centre's experience.
Singapore medical journal 2016;57(2):77-80
INTRODUCTIONThere is increased awareness of paediatric palliative care in Malaysia, but no local published data on home care services. We aimed to describe the paediatric experience at Hospis Malaysia, a community-based palliative care provider in Malaysia.
METHODSWe conducted a retrospective case note review of patients aged up to 21 years who were referred to Hospis Malaysia from 2009 to 2013.
RESULTSA total of 137 patients (92 male, 45 female) with a median age of 140 (3-250) months were included in this study. The majority (71.5%) had malignancies. At referral, 62 patients were still in hospital and 17 died prior to discharge. A total of 108 patients received home visits. At the first home visit, 89.8% of patients had at least one physical symptom. Pain was the most common (52.5%) symptom. Patients had various supportive devices: 39 were on feeding tubes, ten had tracheostomies, five were on bilevel positive airway pressure and ten had urinary catheters. 66 families discussed the preferred location of care at end-of-life. Among those who died, 78.9% died at home, as they preferred (p < 0.001). Regression analysis showed no statistically significant association between a home death and age, diagnosis and number of home visits. Bereavement follow-up occurred for 93.3% of families.
CONCLUSIONCommunity care referrals tend to occur late, with 25.5% of patients dying within two weeks of referral. At referral, patients often had untreated physical symptoms. The majority of families preferred and had a home death.
Cause of Death ; trends ; Child, Preschool ; Female ; Follow-Up Studies ; Home Care Services ; organization & administration ; Humans ; Infant ; Malaysia ; epidemiology ; Male ; Neoplasms ; mortality ; therapy ; Palliative Care ; organization & administration ; Retrospective Studies ; Survival Rate ; trends
5.Can venous base excess replace arterial base excess as a marker of early shock and a predictor of survival in trauma?
Ramesh WIJAYA ; Jia Hui NG ; Lester ONG ; Andrew Siang Yih WONG
Singapore medical journal 2016;57(2):73-76
INTRODUCTIONArterial base excess is an established marker of shock and predictor of survival in trauma patients. However, venous blood is more quickly and easily obtained. This study aimed to determine if venous base excess could replace arterial base excess as a marker in trauma patients at presentation and if venous base excess is predictive of survival at 24 hours and one week.
METHODSThis was a prospective study of 394 trauma patients presenting to the emergency department of a tertiary hospital over a 17-month period. Data on base excess at presentation, vital signs, shock index (SI), injury severity score (ISS), and mortality at 24 hours and one week was collected and analysed.
RESULTSArterial and venous blood gas tests were performed on 260 and 134 patients, respectively. Patients were stratified into groups based on their SI and ISS for analysis. There was no statistical difference between mean venous blood gas and arterial blood gas levels at presentation when SI > 0.7, regardless of ISS (p > 0.05). The mortality rate was 4.57%. Both venous and arterial base excess was lower in nonsurvivors compared to survivors (p < 0.05). However, at 24 hours and one week, the difference in base excess values at presentation between survivors and nonsurvivors was greater when using venous base excess compared to arterial base excess (11.53 vs. 4.28 and 11.41 vs. 2.66, respectively).
CONCLUSIONIn conclusion, venous base excess can replace arterial base excess in trauma patients as a means of identifying and prognosticating early shock.
Acid-Base Imbalance ; blood ; etiology ; mortality ; Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Arteries ; Biomarkers ; blood ; Blood Chemical Analysis ; Child ; Female ; Follow-Up Studies ; Humans ; Injury Severity Score ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Predictive Value of Tests ; Prospective Studies ; Shock, Traumatic ; blood ; complications ; epidemiology ; Singapore ; epidemiology ; Survival Rate ; trends ; Time Factors ; Trauma Centers ; Veins ; Wounds and Injuries ; blood ; complications ; diagnosis ; Young Adult
6.The ambitious but achievable goal: to end preventable childhood deaths due to pneumonia by 2025.
Chinese Journal of Contemporary Pediatrics 2014;16(10):967-969
Globally, pneumonia is the leading cause of childhood mortality. Pneumonia is the second killer of children less than 5 years of age in China. The World Heath Organization and United Nations Children′s Fund launched the integrated Global Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Pneumonia and Diarrhea (GAPPD) in 2013. The ambitious goal is to end preventable childhood deaths due to pneumonia by 2025. Countries or regions should achieve the following goals: (1) reduce mortality from pneumonia in children less than 5 years of age to fewer than 3 per 1 000 live births; (2) reduce the incidence of severe pneumonia by 75% in children less than 5 years of age compared to 2010 levels. If the implementation of key interventions is accelerated, the mortality rate of childhood pneumonia will drop substantially every year, which makes the goal achievable.
Child Mortality
;
trends
;
Child, Preschool
;
China
;
epidemiology
;
Humans
;
Infant
;
Infant, Newborn
;
Pneumonia
;
mortality
;
Time Factors
7.Causes of Child Mortality (1 to 4 Years of Age) From 1983 to 2012 in the Republic of Korea: National Vital Data.
Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health 2014;47(6):336-342
OBJECTIVES: Child mortality remains a critical problem even in developed countries due to low fertility. To plan effective interventions, investigation into the trends and causes of child mortality is necessary. Therefore, we analyzed these trends and causes of child deaths over the last 30 years in Korea. METHODS: Causes of death data were obtained from a nationwide vital registration managed by the Korean Statistical Information Service. The mortality rate among all children aged between one and four years and the causes of deaths were reviewed. Data from 1983-2012 and 1993-2012 were analyzed separately because the proportion of unspecified causes of death during 1983-1992 varied substantially from that during 1993-2012. RESULTS: The child (1-4 years) mortality rates substantially decreased during the past three decades. The trend analysis revealed that all the five major causes of death (infectious, neoplastic, neurologic, congenital, and external origins) have decreased significantly. However, the sex ratio of child mortality (boys to girls) slightly increased during the last 30 years. External causes of death remain the most frequent origin of child mortality, and the proportion of mortality due to child assault has significantly increased (from 1.02 in 1983 to 1.38 in 2012). CONCLUSIONS: In Korea, the major causes and rate of child mortality have changed and the sex ratio of child mortality has slightly increased since the early 1980s. Child mortality, especially due to preventable causes, requires public health intervention.
Cause of Death
;
Child Mortality/*trends
;
Child, Preschool
;
Communicable Diseases/mortality
;
Databases, Factual
;
Female
;
Humans
;
Infant
;
Male
;
Neoplasms/mortality
;
Nervous System Diseases/mortality
;
Republic of Korea
;
Sex Ratio
;
Vital Statistics
8.Yes, children do die in Singapore: a seven-year analysis of paediatric mortality.
Debra Xiuhui HAN ; Revathi SRIDHAR ; Guat Kheng GOH ; Wei-Ping GOH ; Paul Ananth TAMBYAH
Singapore medical journal 2012;53(7):496-author reply 497
Cause of Death
;
Child Mortality
;
trends
;
Female
;
Hospital Mortality
;
trends
;
Humans
;
Male
9.Trend of Mortality Rate and Injury Burden of Transport Accidents, Suicides, and Falls.
Ki Sook KIM ; Soon Duck KIM ; Sang Hee LEE
Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health 2012;45(1):8-13
OBJECTIVES: Recently injury has become a major world-wide health problem. But studies in Korea about injuries were very few. Thus, this study was conducted to analyze the trend of major injuries from 1991 to 2006 and to provide basic data for preventing injuries. METHODS: This study was based on the National Statistical Office data from 1991 to 2006 and calculated to estimate the burden of major injuries by using the standard expected years of life lost (SEYLL) and total lost earnings equation. RESULTS: For transport accidents, mortality, SEYLL and total lost earnings were increased from 1991 to 1996 and decreased from 2000 to 2006. On the other hand, for suicides, these were increased gradually. Since 2003, falls were included in ten leading causes of death. This study showed that injury causes major social and economical losses. CONCLUSIONS: We could reduce injury related premature death through active interest in injury prevention program.
Accident Prevention
;
Accidental Falls/mortality/statistics & numerical data
;
Accidents/*mortality/*statistics & numerical data
;
Accidents, Traffic/mortality/statistics & numerical data
;
Adolescent
;
Adult
;
Age Distribution
;
Aged
;
Aged, 80 and over
;
Cause of Death/trends
;
Child
;
Female
;
Humans
;
Korea/epidemiology
;
Male
;
Middle Aged
;
Mortality/*trends
;
Sex Distribution
;
Suicide/trends
;
Wounds and Injuries/*epidemiology
;
Young Adult
10.Cervical cancer mortality in 2004 - 2005 and changes during last 30 years in China.
Fang-hui ZHAO ; Shang-ying HU ; Si-wei ZHANG ; Wan-qing CHEN ; You-lin QIAO
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine 2010;44(5):408-412
OBJECTIVETo analyze the cervical cancer mortality and distribution profiles by areas and population in 2004 - 2005 and the changes in the last 30 years.
METHODSThe demographic information and cervical cancer death data came from the Third National Retrospective Sampling Survey of Death Causes which including 158 sampling areas (including 61 cities and 97 villages; 52 in the east region, 49 in the middle region and 57 in the west region) covered 31 province-level regions in the interior of China by multiple stage stratified clustering sampling. The total number of the samples were 142 660 482 person years (72 970 241 person years in male and 69 690 241 person years in female). The crude and age-specific death rate was calculated. The standardized death rate was calculated by using 5 years interval from the census data of 2000. In addition, the mortality data was compared with the two previous national death surveys in 1970's and 1990's, respectively.
RESULTSIn the sampling region of the third retrospective death causes survey from 2004 to 2005, the crude death rate of cervical cancer was 2.86/100 000 (1995/69 690 241), which accounting for 2.86% (1995/69 667) and ranking 9th of all cancer death causes in female population. The crude death rates of cervical cancer were 2.88/100 000 (1326/46 091 419) and 2.83/100 000 (669/23 598 822) for rural areas and urban areas, respectively, the Chinese population adjusted death rates of rural and urban areas were 2.01/100 000 and 1.67/100 000, respectively. The standardized death rates of cervical cancer in 1973 - 1975 and 1990 - 1992 were 11.10/100 000 and 3.25/100 000, respectively, which accounting for 17.91% and 4.86%, respectively; in 2004 - 2005, the crude death rates increased by age, rose remarkably from the age of 40 and arrived the peak of 20.83/100 000 (82/393 624) at the age of 85. The mortality among 35 - 44 year-old group was higher than those in 1990's. The crude death rates of the middle, west and east areas were 3.41/100 000 (827/24 225 738), 3.25/100 000 (636/19 563 647) and 2.05/100 000 (532/25 900 856), respectively, the Chinese population adjusted death rates of the middle and west areas were about twice that of the east (2.35/100 000 in the middle, 2.38/100 000 in the west, and 1.19/100 000 in the east).
CONCLUSIONThe mortality of cervical cancer was higher in rural areas than that in urban, as well as higher in the middle and west areas than that in east area in the interior of China in 2004 - 2005. Younger trend of cervical cancer death was observed; the mortality of cervical cancer and constituent ratio in the female tumor death continued to decline compared to those in 1973 - 1975 and 1990 - 1992.
Adolescent ; Adult ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Cause of Death ; trends ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; China ; epidemiology ; Female ; Health Surveys ; Humans ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; Middle Aged ; Neoplasms ; Uterine Cervical Neoplasms ; epidemiology ; mortality ; Young Adult

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