1.Influenza prediction and holiday effects analysis based on Prophet-LSTM model
Wenlin CHENG ; Junjun MAO ; Yizhe WANG ; Jiabing WU
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2026;37(1):8-12
Objective To investigate the impact of holiday effects and prevention/control measures on the development characteristics and incidence trends of influenza in Hefei City using a Prophet-LSTM hybrid model, and to validate the applicability of the Prophet-LSTM model in influenza prediction by comparing the performance of different forecasting models. Methods Influenza incidence data from Hefei City (2016–2024) were collected to construct a Prophet-LSTM feature analysis and prediction model to analyze the impact of holiday effects and intervention measures on influenza incidence trends. Comparative models (ARIMA, GRU, and TimeGPT) were established and evaluated on the same test set. Results The data analysis revealed significantly increased influenza incidence during holidays (e.g., New Year's Day, Spring Festival, and National Day), while prevention and control measures led to declining trends. The Prophet-LSTM model demonstrated high consistency between the predicted and actual values, outperforming the comparative models with superior MAE (0.209), MSE (0.195), and IA (0.914), indicating higher prediction accuracy and trend-fitting capability. Conclusion The Prophet-LSTM model effectively captures spatiotemporal characteristics of influenza incidence, exhibits enhanced predictive performance when incorporating holiday effects and intervention measures, and demonstrates significant advantages and application value in influenza forecasting.
2.Construction of Saikosaponin D Multifunctional Liposomes and Evaluation of Its Anti-liver Cancer Efficacy and Targeting
Kun YU ; Guochun YANG ; Yaliang JIANG ; Yunting XIAO ; Congxian WANG ; Qionge SUN ; Ziyue LI ; Yikun SHANG ; Yu MAO ; Xin CHENG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(9):205-216
ObjectiveTo construct a multifunctional liposomal delivery system by replacing cholesterol(Chol) in conventional liposomes with saikosaponin D(SSD) and modifying with poloxamer 407(P407) for co-delivery of curcumin(Cur). The system was evaluated for in vivo tumor targeting and inhibitory effects on mouse subcutaneous solid tumors. MethodsSingle-factor and orthogonal tests combined with information entropy weighting were used to optimize the formulation process of the liposome with encapsulation efficiency and absolute Zeta potential as indexes, and validation studies and liposomal characterization were performed. A subcutaneous solid tumor model was established by injecting H22 hepatocellular carcinoma cells subcutaneously into the dorsal surface of the right forelimb of mice. DiR-loaded traditional Chol liposomes(P407-DiR-Chol-LPs, PDCL) and novel SSD-based liposomes(P407-DiR-SSD-LPs, PDSL) were prepared by the optimized formulation process, and tail vein injection was performed to investigate the impact of SSD on liposome tumor targeting with small animal in vivo imaging. Mice were randomly divided into eight groups, including blank group, model group, free doxorubicin(DOX) group(2 mg·kg-1), free Cur group(8 mg·kg-1), free SSD group(10 mg·kg-1), P407-Cur-Chol-LPs(PCCL) group, P407-SSD-LPs(PSL) group, and P407-Cur-SSD-Lps(PCSL) group. Treatments were administered intraperitoneally every other day for seven doses. Antitumor efficacy and biocompatibility were evaluated by monitoring body weight change, organ indices, tumor volume and mass, relative tumor proliferation rate(T/C), and tumor growth inhibition rate(TGI). Histopathological analysis of liver, kidney, and tumor tissues was performed using hematoxylin-eosin(HE) staining. Serum levels of aspartate aminotransferase(AST), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), blood urea nitrogen(BUN), and creatinine(Crea)in mice were quantified by fully automated biochemical analyzer. ResultsOrthogonal test yielded optimal ratios of Cur, SSD, and P407 to soybean phosphatidylcholine(SPC) as 1∶25, 1∶20, and 1∶4. The optimized PCSL exhibited spherical morphology with a particle size of 179.15 nm, a Zeta potential of -47.25 mV, and an encapsulation efficiency of 96.40%. Its in vitro release profile conformed to first-order kinetics, demonstrating excellent storage stability and hemocompatibility. In vivo imaging revealed that the fluorescence signal in tumor tissues and the fluorescence intensity ratio between tumors and organs were significantly higher in the PDSL group than in the PDCL group(P<0.05, P<0.01). Among the treatment groups, PCSL group showed superior efficacy over free Cur group, free SSD group, PCCL group, and PSL group, with TGI>40% and T/C<60%, indicating pronounced anti-hepatocellular carcinoma effects(P<0.05, P<0.01). Histopathology and serum biochemistry indicated minimal hepatorenal toxicity and improved hepatic and renal function in PCSL-treated mice. ConclusionReplacing Chol with SSD in preparing multifunctional drug delivery systems not only stabilizes liposomes but also yields superior anti-hepatocellular carcinoma efficacy, achieving the effect of drug-excipient integration. Co-delivery of Cur via this system can be used for treating subcutaneous solid tumors in hepatocellular carcinoma, providing new insights and technical approaches for anti-hepatocellular carcinoma research and the meridian-guiding and messenger-directing theory in traditional Chinese medicine.
3.Intervention effect of school based salt reduction health education on knowledge attitude behavior and urinary sodium among primary school students
YANG Zheng, XU Jie, MAO Tao, CHENG Luyao, YANG Zeguang, QU Chen, ZHEN Shiqi, LIN Jiajin, ZHANG Yang
Chinese Journal of School Health 2026;47(5):637-641
Objective:
To evaluate the intervention effect of school based salt reduction health education, so as to provide a scientific basis for constructing a more effective and sustainable salt reduction intervention model for children.
Methods:
According to a randomized controlled trial design, in June 2022, probability proportional to size sampling was used to select 501 second grade students (248 in the control group and 253 in the intervention group) from 10 primary schools in Zhenjiang (intervention group) and 10 primary schools in Yangzhou (control group), Jiangsu Province. An one year school based salt reduction health education intervention was implemented. This included 20 online and 8 offline health education sessions, monitoring of salt consumption in the canteen, and the establishment of a salt reduction environment on campus. The control group received no additional salt reduction interventions. A questionnaire survey and 24 hour urinary sodium test were conducted before and after the intervention. The difference in differences method was used to evaluate the intervention effect.
Results:
After the intervention, the intervention group showed significant net intervention effects in knowledge aspects, including knowing that primary school students consume less salt than adults ( OR=3.55,95%CI =1.69-7.47), daily salt intake of primary school students ( OR=6.64,95%CI =3.71-11.87), long term high salt intake leading to hypertension ( OR=6.83,95%CI =3.93-11.91), low salt intake not causing hair graying ( OR= 1.66 ,95%CI =1.00-2.75), salt content in food labels ( OR=4.56,95%CI =2.63-7.91), and common high salt foods ( OR=3.39,95%CI =1.87-6.14) (all P <0.05). In terms of attitude, the net intervention effect for having a positive attitude toward using less salt in home cooking was significantly increased ( OR=1.88,95%CI =1.13-3.12, P <0.05). There were no statistically significant net intervention effects for salt reduction related behaviors (all P >0.05). There was no statistically significant difference in the changes of 24 hour urinary sodium between the intervention group and the control group before and after intervention ( P >0.05).
Conclusions
School based salt reduction health education effectively improves students salt reduction knowledge and attitudes but has a limited effect on behavior change. The home-school collaboration should be strengthened, and the dietary environment should be optimized simultaneously.
4.Association of polychlorinated biphenyl exposure with platelet parameters across different glycemic states: The moderating role of a healthy lifestyle
Zhuo CHEN ; Huilin LOU ; Taimeng CHEN ; Fangyuan LIN ; Xueyan WU ; Yao GUO ; Haoran XU ; Mengke CHENG ; Peihan CHEN ; Yilin ZHOU ; Zhenxing MAO ; Xin TANG
Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine 2026;43(5):535-541
Background Platelet parameters are important indicators of cardiovascular risk, and environmental pollutants such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) may impair platelet function through oxidative stress. Objective To investigate the differential effects of single and mixed exposure to PCBs on platelet parameters among individuals with normal glucose tolerance (NGT), impaired fasting glucose (IFG), and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), and to evaluate the potential modifying role of a healthy lifestyle. Methods This study included 2249 participants (including 707 with NGT, 759 with IFG, and 783 with T2DM). Plasma PCB concentrations were measured using triple quadrupole gaschromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. Generalized linear regression was used to assess the associations between individual PCB congeners and platelet parameters. Quantile g-computation (QGC) and Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR) models were used to evaluate the overall effects of PCBs mixture exposure on platelet parameters across different glycemic states, as well as its interaction with healthy lifestyle score (HLS). Results Generalized linear regression analyses showed significant differences in the effects of PCBs on platelet parameters across different glycemic states (P<0.05). After adjusting for confounders, PCBs mixture exposure was significantly associated with lower platelet counts (PLT) in individuals with NGT (b=−10.60, 95%CI: −16.48, −4.71) and IFG (b=−12.91, 95%CI: −18.90, −6.92), whereas no significant association was observed in individuals with T2DM (P=0.051). Mean platelet volume (MPV) and platelet-large cell ratio (P-LCR) increased significantly with higher PCBs exposure levels across all three groups (P<0.05). BKMR analysis showed a positive association between PCBs mixture exposure and P-LCR, with the strongest association observed in the NGT group. Furthermore, a significant interaction was observed between HLS and PCBs mixture exposure, and a higher HLS attenuated the effects of PCBs on P-LCR. Conclusion Glycemic glycemic states may modify the effects of PCBs on platelets. Individuals with NGT appear more sensitive to PCBs exposure, whereas the T2DM state may attenuate this effect. Moreover, healthy lifestyles, including not smoking, moderate alcohol consumption, maintaining moderate-to-high physical activity, a healthy diet, and an appropriate body mass index (BMI), may mitigate the adverse effects of most PCBs on platelet parameters.
5.Association of polychlorinated biphenyl exposure with platelet parameters across different glycemic states: The moderating role of a healthy lifestyle
Zhuo CHEN ; Huilin LOU ; Taimeng CHEN ; Fangyuan LIN ; Xueyan WU ; Yao GUO ; Haoran XU ; Mengke CHENG ; Peihan CHEN ; Yilin ZHOU ; Zhenxing MAO ; Xin TANG
Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine 2026;43(5):535-541
Background Platelet parameters are important indicators of cardiovascular risk, and environmental pollutants such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) may impair platelet function through oxidative stress. Objective To investigate the differential effects of single and mixed exposure to PCBs on platelet parameters among individuals with normal glucose tolerance (NGT), impaired fasting glucose (IFG), and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), and to evaluate the potential modifying role of a healthy lifestyle. Methods This study included 2249 participants (including 707 with NGT, 759 with IFG, and 783 with T2DM). Plasma PCB concentrations were measured using triple quadrupole gaschromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. Generalized linear regression was used to assess the associations between individual PCB congeners and platelet parameters. Quantile g-computation (QGC) and Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR) models were used to evaluate the overall effects of PCBs mixture exposure on platelet parameters across different glycemic states, as well as its interaction with healthy lifestyle score (HLS). Results Generalized linear regression analyses showed significant differences in the effects of PCBs on platelet parameters across different glycemic states (P<0.05). After adjusting for confounders, PCBs mixture exposure was significantly associated with lower platelet counts (PLT) in individuals with NGT (b=−10.60, 95%CI: −16.48, −4.71) and IFG (b=−12.91, 95%CI: −18.90, −6.92), whereas no significant association was observed in individuals with T2DM (P=0.051). Mean platelet volume (MPV) and platelet-large cell ratio (P-LCR) increased significantly with higher PCBs exposure levels across all three groups (P<0.05). BKMR analysis showed a positive association between PCBs mixture exposure and P-LCR, with the strongest association observed in the NGT group. Furthermore, a significant interaction was observed between HLS and PCBs mixture exposure, and a higher HLS attenuated the effects of PCBs on P-LCR. Conclusion Glycemic glycemic states may modify the effects of PCBs on platelets. Individuals with NGT appear more sensitive to PCBs exposure, whereas the T2DM state may attenuate this effect. Moreover, healthy lifestyles, including not smoking, moderate alcohol consumption, maintaining moderate-to-high physical activity, a healthy diet, and an appropriate body mass index (BMI), may mitigate the adverse effects of most PCBs on platelet parameters.
6.HAN Mingxiang's Experience in Staged and Syndrome-Based Treatment of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease
Jian DING ; Hui TAO ; Gang CHENG ; Weizhen GUO ; Zegeng LI ; Ya MAO ;
Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2025;66(8):780-785
This paper summarizes Professor HAN Mingxiang's clinical experience in treating chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). He believes that the key pathomechanism of COPD in the acute exacerbation stage is the invasion of external pathogens triggering latent illness, while lung qi deficiency is the primary mechanism in the stable stage. The core pathological factors throughout disease progression are deficiency, phlegm, and blood stasis. Treatment emphasizes a staged and syndrome-based approach. During the acute exacerbation stage, for wind-cold invading the lung syndrome, the self-formulated Sanzi Wenfei Decoction (三子温肺汤) is used to relieve the exterior, dispel cold, warm the lung, and resolve phlegm. For phlegm-dampness obstructing the lung syndrome, Huatan Jiangqi Fomulation (化痰降气方) is prescribed to warm the lung, transform phlegm, descend qi, and calm wheezing. For phlegm-heat obstructing the lung syndrome, Qingfei Huatan Fomulation (清肺化痰方) is applied to clear heat, resolve phlegm, moisten the lung, and stop coughing. For phlegm and blood stasis interlocking syndrome, Qibai Pingfei Fomulation (芪白平肺方) is used to tonify qi, resolve phlegm, and activate blood circulation to remove stasis. During the stable stage, for lung qi deficiency syndrome, Shenqi Wenfei Decoction (参芪温肺汤) is employed to warm the lung, tonify qi, resolve phlegm, and eliminate turbidity. For lung-spleen qi deficiency syndrome, Shenqi Buzhong Decoction (参芪补中汤) is utilized to strengthen the spleen, tonify qi, and reinforce metal (lung) from earth (spleen). For lung-kidney deficiency syndrome, Shenqi Tiaoshen Fomulation (参芪调肾方) is prescribed to tonify the lung, warm yang, and regulate kidney function to calm wheezing. These strategies provide insights into the traditional Chinese medicine treatment of COPD.
7.Application of fractal dimension CONVLSTM model in predicting the number of influenza cases in Hefei City
Sheng ZHANG ; Junjun MAO ; Weiling CHENG
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2025;36(1):8-12
Objective To develop a multivariate modeling and prediction approach using the data of influenza incidence, meteorological factors and PM2.5 variables in Hefei City, and to provide new insights into multivariate modeling and prediction methods. Methods PM2.5 data were transformed into fractal dimension data and, along with meteorological data, were incorporated into a ConvLSTM model. The performance of this model was compared with traditional ARIMAX and multivariate LSTM models. Results The ARIMAX model's testing set Mean Absolute Error (MAE) was 95.75, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was 176.72, and Index of Agreement (IA) was 0.396642. The multivariate LSTM model's testing set MAE was 22.18, RMSE was 43.06, and IA was 0.974611. For the fractal dimension-based ConvLSTM model, the testing set MAE was 17.37, RMSE was 32.25, and IA was 0.988149. Conclusion The fractal dimension effectively captures the complexity and self-similarity of PM2.5 concentration, providing the model with richer feature information. The fractal dimension-based ConvLSTM model significantly outperforms the traditional ARIMAX model and the multivariate LSTM model in prediction accuracy and can be used for predicting the number of influenza cases.
8.The expression of integrin α2 is associated with the risk of recurrence in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma
Feng CHENG ; Bin ZHOU ; Weibo MAO ; Yiling ZHU
Chongqing Medicine 2025;54(4):874-878,883
Objective To investigate the correlation between the expression of integrin α 2(ITGA2)and recurrence risk of papillary thyroid microcarcinoma(PTMC).Methods PTMC and para-carcinoma tissue were collected from patients who underwent surgery and pathologically confirmed at the hospital from Decem-ber 2022 to June 2023,and the expression of ITGA2 in PTMC and paracarcinoma tissue were observed using immunohistochemistry method.Clinical characteristics of all patients were collected and the differences in clin-icopathological characteristics between patients in ITGA2-positive and-negative groups were compared.Ac-cording to the risk stratification criteria for tumor recurrence,the differences in ITGA2 expression between groups were compared.Results The expression level of ITGA2 in PTMC was higher than that in para-carci-noma tissues,and the difference was statistically significant(P<0.001).Multivariate logistic regression anal-ysis showed that BRAF mutation(OR=2.668)and larger total tumor diameter(TTD,OR=1.111)were risk factors for ITGA2 overexpression(P<0.05).ITGA2 positive expression was associated with the risk of tumor recurrence(P=0.009).Conclusion ITGA2 can be used as a novel molecular biomarker for clinical ap-plication.
9.Research progress of liquid biopsy based on exosomes in tumor diagnosis and treatment
Li MAO ; Yao CHENG ; Qiuqian LIU
International Journal of Laboratory Medicine 2025;46(3):329-334
Exosome-based liquid biopsy technology,with its unique advantages,has demonstrated signifi-cant application potential in the field of tumor diagnosis and treatment.This article aims to outline the basic characteristics of exosomes,their extraction and identification techniques,and focuses on the latest research progress of exosomes in the field of tumor diagnosis and treatment.Current studies indicate that the quantity,size of exosomes,and the biomarkers they carry are of great clinical value in achieving personalized medicine,improving the accuracy of early diagnosis,monitoring treatment effects,and assessing prognosis.These aspects hold profound significance for advancing the development of precision medicine in tumors.Although there are still certain challenges in the standardization of exosome isolation and purification,and the diversity of sample processing,with ongoing research and continuous technological development,exosomes are expected to play an even more important role in the field of tumor diagnosis and treatment.
10.Functional mechanism of Xihuang pill drug containing serum in intervention of breast cancer cells based on miR21-5p targeting FAM13A gene
Juling CHENG ; Jie MAO ; Hui HE ; Jiaqi PENG ; Yingqian XU ; Huanzi PENG ; Jinquan WANG ; Yunhao LI ; Xiaobing XIE
International Journal of Laboratory Medicine 2025;46(19):2339-2346
Objective To explore the related functional mechanism of Xihuang pill containing serum inter-vention in breast cancer cells based on microRNA(miR)21-5p targeting FAM13A gene.Methods Bioinfor-matics websites was used to predict potential miRNAs of FAM13A gene,double luciferase reporter experi-ments were conducted to verify the binding site relationship between FAM13A and predicted miRNAs.The Xihuang pill containing serum was prepared,and human breast cancer MDA-MB-231 cells were cultured.The proliferation of MDA-MB-231 cells was interfered by the Xihuang pill containing serum with different dilution ratios by CCK-8 test,and the best dilution ratio concentration of Xihuang pill containing serum to inhibit the proliferation of breast cancer cells was selected.Real time fluorescence quantitative PCR(RT-qPCR)was ap-plied to detect the relative expression levels of FAM13A mRNA,as well as the relative expression levels of miR21-5p,in MDA-MB-231 cells after intervention with Xihuang pill containing serum.Cell proliferation(Edu)assay and cell apoptosis detection(TUNEL)assay were used to detect the effects of Xihuang pill con-taining serum intervention on cell proliferation and apoptosis function in MDA-MB-231 cells.The siRNA lentiviral transfection on MDA-MB-231 cells was performed to knock down the FAM13A gene,and Edu assay and TUNEL assay were used to detect changes in proliferation and apoptosis ability of MDA-MB-231 cells af-ter lentiviral transfection.The expression level of miR21-5p in MDA-MB-231 cells after FAM13A gene knock-out was detected by RT-qPCR technology.Results Target Scan online website predicted the potential miR-21-5p binding sequence in the 3'UTR of FAM13A mRNA,and dual luciferase reporter assay confirmed the in-teraction between miR-21-5p and FAM13A.After intervention of MDA-MB-231 cells with Xihuang pill drug containing serum,RT-qPCR results showed that compared with the control group(NC group),the Xihuang pill drug containing serum group(XHW group)downregulated the expression levels of FAM13A mRNA(P<0.05),and upregulated the expression level of miR21-5p(P<0.05).Compared with the NC group,the XWH group showed reduced cell proliferation ability and promoted cell apoptosis.(P<0.05).After silencing the FAM13A gene in MDA-MB-231 cells,compared with the control group(shCtrl group),the shFAM13A group showed a significant decrease in cell proliferation ability and promoted cell apoptosis.The RT-qPCR re-sults showed that compared with the shCtrl group,the expression level of miR21-5p was significantly upregu-lated in the shFAM13A group(P<0.05).Conclusion Xihuang pill could participate in the anti-tumor treat-ment of breast cancer by regulating miR21-5p to affect the expression level of FAM13A gene.


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