1.Effectiveness of Lianhua Qingwen Granule and Jingyin Gubiao Prescription in Omicron BA.2 Infection and Hospitalization: A Real-World Study of 56,244 Cases in Shanghai, China.
Yu-Jie ZHANG ; Guo-Jian LIU ; Han ZHANG ; Chen LIU ; Zhi-Qiang CHEN ; Ji-Shu XIAN ; Da-Li SONG ; Zhi LIU ; Xue YANG ; Ju WANG ; Zhe ZHANG ; Lu-Ying ZHANG ; Hua FENG ; Yan-Qi ZHANG ; Liang TAN
Chinese journal of integrative medicine 2025;31(1):11-18
OBJECTIVE:
To examine the effectiveness of Chinese medicine (CM) Lianhua Qingwen Granule (LHQW) and Jingyin Gubiao Prescription (JYGB) in asymptomatic or mild patients with Omicron infection in the shelter hospital.
METHODS:
This single-center retrospective cohort study was conducted in the largest shelter hospital in Shanghai, China, from April 10, 2022 to May 30, 2022. A total of 56,244 asymptomatic and mild Omicron cases were included and divided into 4 groups, i.e., non-administration group (23,702 cases), LHQW group (11,576 cases), JYGB group (12,112 cases), and dual combination of LHQW and JYGB group (8,854 cases). The length of stay (LOS) in the hospital was used to assess the effectiveness of LHQW and JYGB treatment on Omicron infection.
RESULTS:
Patients aged 41-60 years, with nadir threshold cycle (CT) value of N gene <25, or those fully vaccinated preferred to receive CM therapy. Before or after propensity score matching (PSM), the multiple linear regression showed that LHQW and JYGB treatment were independent influence factors of LOS (both P<0.001). After PSM, there were significant differences in LOS between the LHQW/JYGB combination and the other groups (P<0.01). The results of factorial design ANOVA proved that the LHQW/JYGB combination therapy synergistically shortened LOS (P=0.032).
CONCLUSIONS
Patients with a nadir CT value <25 were more likely to accept CM. The LHQW/JYGB combination therapy could shorten the LOS of Omicron-infected individuals in an isolated environment.
Humans
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Drugs, Chinese Herbal/therapeutic use*
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Male
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Female
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Middle Aged
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Adult
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China/epidemiology*
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Hospitalization
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COVID-19 Drug Treatment
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COVID-19/epidemiology*
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SARS-CoV-2
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Retrospective Studies
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Treatment Outcome
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Length of Stay
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Young Adult
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Aged
2.Protective Effect of Taohong Siwutang on Cerebral Ischemia-reperfusion Injury Based on A1/A2 Phenotype Transformation of Astrocytes Mediated by JAK2/STAT3 Pathway
Huifang WANG ; Xinru CHEN ; Mengyuan CHEN ; Xian ZHOU ; Lan HAN ; Weidong CHEN ; Zhaojie JI
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(7):25-34
ObjectiveTo investigate whether the effect of Taohong Siwutang on cerebral ischemia-reperfusion (CIRI) injury in rats is related to the regulation of astrocyte polarization and explore the related mechanism. MethodsEighty-four male SD rats were randomly assigned to the following groups: A sham operation group, a model group, Taohong Siwutang treatment groups (low dose, medium dose, and high dose), ligustrazine phosphate tablet (LPT) group, and AG490 group. All groups, except for the sham operation group, underwent middle cerebral artery occlusion/reperfusion (MCAO/R) modeling and were treated for seven days. The neurological impairment was evaluated using the Longa score. The volume of cerebral infarction was assessed through 2,3,5-triphenyltetrazolium chloride (TTC) staining. Real-time fluorescent quantitative polymerase chain reaction (Real-time PCR) and Western blot analyses were performed to analyze the mRNA and protein expression levels of cortical complement 3 (C3), S100 calcium-binding protein A10 (S100A10), Janus kinase 2 (JAK2), and signal transducer and activator of transcription 3 (STAT3). Additionally, protein expression levels of vascular endothelial growth factor-A (VEGF-A) were assessed, and the mRNA expression levels of inflammatory factors, including interleukin-6 (IL-6), interleukin-1β (IL-1β), and tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), were evaluated. Glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) and C3, S100A10 and Co-localization was detected via immunofluorescence double staining. Lastly, VEGF expression levels were measured using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). ResultsCompared with the sham operation group, the model group showed a significant increase in cerebral infarction volume and neurological impairment (P<0.01). C3 protein levels were elevated, while S100A10 levels were decreased. Pathway-related markers were significantly upregulated (P<0.05, P<0.01), and VEGF-A protein levels were significantly reduced (P<0.01). The mRNA expression of inflammatory factors was significantly upregulated (P<0.01). Co-localization analysis showed significantly increased GFAP and C3 fluorescence intensity (P<0.01) and greatly decreased GFAP and S100A10 fluorescence intensity (P<0.01). Additionally, VEGF content was significantly elevated (P<0.01). Compared with the model group, medium- and high-dose Taohong Siwutang and LPT groups exhibited a significant reduction in cerebral infarction volume and neurological impairment (P<0.01). Groups treated with low, medium, and high doses of Taohong Siwutang and LPT group exhibited a decrease in C3 protein expression levels and an increase in S100A10 expression levels (P<0.01). In the high-dose Taohong Siwutang and AG490 groups, both protein and mRNA expression of C3 and pathway-related markers were significantly downregulated (P<0.05, P<0.01), while S100A10 expression and VEGF-A protein levels were significantly increased (P<0.01). Additionally, the mRNA expression levels of inflammatory factors were significantly reduced (P<0.01). The co-localization fluorescence intensity of GFAP and C3 significantly decreased (P<0.01), while that of GFAP and S100A10 greatly increased (P<0.01). Furthermore, VEGF content exhibited a marked elevation (P<0.01). ConclusionTaohong Siwutang exerts a protective effect in rats with cerebral CIRI injury. The underlying mechanism is associated with the downregulation of the JAK2/STAT3 signaling pathway, promotion of A2-type astrocyte polarization, reduction of inflammatory factor release, and enhancement of VEGF production.
3.Protective Effect of Taohong Siwutang on Cerebral Ischemia-reperfusion Injury Based on A1/A2 Phenotype Transformation of Astrocytes Mediated by JAK2/STAT3 Pathway
Huifang WANG ; Xinru CHEN ; Mengyuan CHEN ; Xian ZHOU ; Lan HAN ; Weidong CHEN ; Zhaojie JI
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(7):25-34
ObjectiveTo investigate whether the effect of Taohong Siwutang on cerebral ischemia-reperfusion (CIRI) injury in rats is related to the regulation of astrocyte polarization and explore the related mechanism. MethodsEighty-four male SD rats were randomly assigned to the following groups: A sham operation group, a model group, Taohong Siwutang treatment groups (low dose, medium dose, and high dose), ligustrazine phosphate tablet (LPT) group, and AG490 group. All groups, except for the sham operation group, underwent middle cerebral artery occlusion/reperfusion (MCAO/R) modeling and were treated for seven days. The neurological impairment was evaluated using the Longa score. The volume of cerebral infarction was assessed through 2,3,5-triphenyltetrazolium chloride (TTC) staining. Real-time fluorescent quantitative polymerase chain reaction (Real-time PCR) and Western blot analyses were performed to analyze the mRNA and protein expression levels of cortical complement 3 (C3), S100 calcium-binding protein A10 (S100A10), Janus kinase 2 (JAK2), and signal transducer and activator of transcription 3 (STAT3). Additionally, protein expression levels of vascular endothelial growth factor-A (VEGF-A) were assessed, and the mRNA expression levels of inflammatory factors, including interleukin-6 (IL-6), interleukin-1β (IL-1β), and tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), were evaluated. Glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) and C3, S100A10 and Co-localization was detected via immunofluorescence double staining. Lastly, VEGF expression levels were measured using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). ResultsCompared with the sham operation group, the model group showed a significant increase in cerebral infarction volume and neurological impairment (P<0.01). C3 protein levels were elevated, while S100A10 levels were decreased. Pathway-related markers were significantly upregulated (P<0.05, P<0.01), and VEGF-A protein levels were significantly reduced (P<0.01). The mRNA expression of inflammatory factors was significantly upregulated (P<0.01). Co-localization analysis showed significantly increased GFAP and C3 fluorescence intensity (P<0.01) and greatly decreased GFAP and S100A10 fluorescence intensity (P<0.01). Additionally, VEGF content was significantly elevated (P<0.01). Compared with the model group, medium- and high-dose Taohong Siwutang and LPT groups exhibited a significant reduction in cerebral infarction volume and neurological impairment (P<0.01). Groups treated with low, medium, and high doses of Taohong Siwutang and LPT group exhibited a decrease in C3 protein expression levels and an increase in S100A10 expression levels (P<0.01). In the high-dose Taohong Siwutang and AG490 groups, both protein and mRNA expression of C3 and pathway-related markers were significantly downregulated (P<0.05, P<0.01), while S100A10 expression and VEGF-A protein levels were significantly increased (P<0.01). Additionally, the mRNA expression levels of inflammatory factors were significantly reduced (P<0.01). The co-localization fluorescence intensity of GFAP and C3 significantly decreased (P<0.01), while that of GFAP and S100A10 greatly increased (P<0.01). Furthermore, VEGF content exhibited a marked elevation (P<0.01). ConclusionTaohong Siwutang exerts a protective effect in rats with cerebral CIRI injury. The underlying mechanism is associated with the downregulation of the JAK2/STAT3 signaling pathway, promotion of A2-type astrocyte polarization, reduction of inflammatory factor release, and enhancement of VEGF production.
4.Application Progress of Metal-Organic Frameworks in Electrochemical Sensing of Antibiotics Residues
Lin WANG ; Shuang HAN ; Ji-Ping CHEN ; Xian-Bo LU
Chinese Journal of Analytical Chemistry 2025;53(4):535-546
Antibiotics are widely used in clinical treatment of bacterial infection diseases and in the breeding of livestock,poultry and aquatic products.However,the irrational and excessive use of antibiotics not only leads to the emergence of drug-resistant superbugs,but also the antibiotics discharged into the environment pose a significant threat to the environment and human health.Antibiotics have been included in the list of key new pollutants to be controlled.Therefore,the detection of residual antibiotics in environmental media and food is of vital importance for protecting the environment and public health.Among various antibiotic detection methods,electrochemical sensors have attracted extensive attention due to their high sensitivity,low cost,simplicity and rapidity.Appropriate modification of the electrode surface can enhance the sensitivity of electrochemical sensors,reduce interference and expand the detection range.Metal-organic frameworks(MOFs)materials have the advantages of rich types,adjustable structure and activity,high specific surface area and high porosity,and show great application potential in the field of electrochemical sensing.This paper first introduces the synthesis methods of MOFs,reviews the research progress of MOFs-modified electrodes for detection of common antibiotics by electrochemical sensors,and finally looks forward to their future development trends in the field of rapid antibiotic detection.
5.Advancements and applications in radiopharmaceutical therapy.
Shiya WANG ; Mingyi CAO ; Yifei CHEN ; Jingjing LIN ; Jiahao LI ; Xinyu WU ; Zhiyue DAI ; Yuhan PAN ; Xiao LIU ; Xian LIU ; Liang-Ting LIN ; Jianbing WU ; Ji LIU ; Qifeng ZHONG ; Zhenwei YUAN
Chinese Journal of Natural Medicines (English Ed.) 2025;23(6):641-657
Radiopharmaceuticals operate by combining radionuclides with carriers. The radiation energy emitted by radionuclides is utilized to selectively irradiate diseased tissues while minimizing damage to healthy tissues. In comparison to external beam radiation therapy, radionuclide drugs demonstrate research potential due to their biological targeting capabilities and reduced normal tissue toxicity. This article reviews the applications and research progress of radiopharmaceuticals in cancer treatment. Several key radionuclides are examined, including 223Ra, 90Y, Lutetium-177 (177Lu), 212Pb, and Actinium-225 (225Ac). It also explores the current development trends of radiopharmaceuticals, encompassing the introduction of novel radionuclides, advancements in imaging technologies, integrated diagnosis and treatment approaches, and equipment-medication combinations. We review the progress in the development of new treatments, such as neutron capture therapy, proton therapy, and heavy ion therapy. Furthermore, we examine the challenges and breakthroughs associated with the clinical translation of radiopharmaceuticals and provide recommendations for the research and development of novel radionuclide drugs.
Humans
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Radiopharmaceuticals/therapeutic use*
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Neoplasms/radiotherapy*
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Radioisotopes/therapeutic use*
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Animals
6.Comparison of the Phoenix scoring system and commonly used pediatric sepsis scores in predicting mortality risk in pediatric patients with severe sepsis under traditional standards
Haonan WANG ; Yinglang HE ; Rui TAN ; Han LI ; Xian LI ; Nan HOU ; Chen JI ; Zhe LI ; Yue WANG ; Shuangshuang PENG ; Le JING ; Liye GU ; Junjie ZHAO ; Hongjun MIAO
Chinese Journal of Burns 2025;41(3):222-231
Objective:To explore the differences between the Phoenix sepsis scoring system including Phoenix sepsis score (PSS) and Phoenix-8 organ dysfunction score (hereinafter referred to as Phoenix-8) and the commonly used pediatric sepsis scores in evaluating clinical characteristics and prognostic analysis of pediatric patients with severe sepsis diagnosed under traditional standards, namely the diagnostic criteria from the 2005 International Pediatric Sepsis Consensus Conference.Methods:This study was a retrospective observational study. From December 2020 to March 2023, 202 pediatric patients with severe sepsis meeting the inclusion criteria were admitted to the Children's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University. Based on the sepsis diagnostic criteria outlined in the International Consensus Criteria for Pediatric Sepsis and Septic Shock (2024), the pediatric patients were categorized into a sepsis group and a non-sepsis group. Sepsis group was further subdivided into a death subgroup and a survival subgroup based on the outcomes. The age, hospitalization costs, disease outcome indicators (e.g., mortality rate and incidence of septic shock), major organ (e.g., heart, liver, lungs, and kidneys) damage and their correlations, as well as PSS, Phoenix-8 and commonly used pediatric sepsis scores (e.g., pediatric sequential organ failure assessment (pSOFA), pediatric risk of mortality score Ⅲ (PRISM Ⅲ), pediatric logistic organ dysfunction-2 score (PELOD-2), pediatric multiple organ dysfunction score (P-MODS), pediatric critical illness score (PCIS), and pediatric early warning score (PEWS)) were collected and compared. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and precision-recall curve were plotted to evaluate the predictive ability of PSS, Phoenix-8, and commonly used pediatric sepsis scores for mortality risk in pediatric patients with severe sepsis under traditional standards. Predictive performance was quantified using the area under the ROC curve (AUROC). Univariate logistic regression analysis was employed to quantify the odds ratios of PSS and Phoenix-8 for predicting mortality risk. Patients with severe sepsis under traditional standards were further stratified into subgroups based on complications and comorbidities, including central nervous system (CNS) diseases, multiple infections, cardiovascular system diseases, shock, and malignancies. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test was used to assess calibration of PSS and Phoenix-8, and the DeLong test was used to compare whether there were statistically significant differences in the AUROC of PSS and Phoenix-8 for predicting mortality risk among different subgroups of pediatric patients. Results:Compared with those in non-sepsis group, pediatric patients in sepsis group were significantly older ( Z=-2.92, P<0.05) with higher incidences of septic shock and mortality, hospitalization costs, PRISM Ⅲ, PEWS, pSOFA, PELOD-2, PSS, and Phoenix-8 (with χ2 values of 21.28 and 13.64, respectively, Z values of -1.99, -5.33, -5.10, -8.55, -6.91, -10.98, and -9.93, respectively, P<0.05), and lower PCIS ( Z=-3.34, P<0.05). Compared with those in survival subgroup, hospitalization costs, PSS, Phoenix-8, PRISM Ⅲ, PEWS, pSOFA, PELOD-2, and P-MODS of pediatric patients in death subgroup was significantly higher (with Z values of -2.50, -3.50, -2.47, -5.11, -3.84, -2.94, -3.61, and -3.04, respectively, P<0.05). Compared with those in survival subgroup, the incidences of lung damage and liver damage of pediatric patients in death subgroup were also significantly higher (with χ2 values of 6.20 and 10.94, respectively, P<0.05), and 64.7% (97/150) of patients exhibited two or more concurrent organ damage. For predicting mortality risk in pediatric patients with severe sepsis under traditional standards, the AUROC values for PRISM Ⅲ, PCIS, PEWS, pSOFA, PELOD-2, P-MODS, PSS, and Phoenix-8 were approximately 0.70, with optimal cutoff values of 17.5, 91.0, 5.5, 4.5, 2.5, 4.5, 3.5, and 4.5, respectively; PELOD-2 demonstrated the highest sensitivity (0.83); while PRISM Ⅲ, PSS, and Phoenix-8 showed high specificity (>0.80). Univariate logistic regression analysis showed that for every 1-point increase in the PSS within 24 hours of pediatric intensive care unit admission, the relative risk of mortality increased by 63.7% (with odds ratio of 1.64, 95% confidence interval of 1.34-1.99, P<0.05). Similarly, for every 1-point increase in the Phoenix-8, the relative risk of mortality increased by 37.5% (with odds ratio of 1.38, 95% confidence interval of 1.18-1.60, P<0.05). The AUROC values (around 0.80) of PSS and Phoenix-8 for predicting mortality risk in pediatric patients with severe sepsis combined with CNS diseases, multiple infections, and cardiovascular system diseases were relatively high. In contrast, the AUROC values (0.60-0.80) for predicting mortality risk in pediatric patients with severe sepsis combined with shock or malignant tumors were moderate. All models passed the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test ( P>0.05). The DeLong test indicated no statistically significant differences in predictive ability between PSS and Phoenix-8 across subgroups of pediatric patients ( P>0.05). Conclusions:PSS and Phoenix-8 exhibited higher specificity than most of the commonly used pediatric sepsis scores in predicting mortality risk under traditional standards. Both scores performed much better in predicting the mortality risk in pediatric patients with severe sepsis combined with CNS diseases, multiple infections, and cardiovascular system diseases.
7.The dismounted coronary stent was removed through the proximal radial artery and embedded in the distal radial artery:a case report
Fa ZHENG ; Shu-shuai SONG ; Chen-ji XU ; Chang-hong LU ; Xian-liang LI ; Qi SONG
Chinese Journal of Interventional Cardiology 2025;33(1):47-50
Stent entrapment is a rare complication of percutaneous coronary intervention.In recent years,with the development of distal radial artery puncture technology,the rare complications related to distal radial artery have been gradually understood.This article describes a patient who underwent coronary intervention through a distal radial approach,and the stent was dislodged and trapped in the far radial artery.The patient came to our hospital for stent implantation because of acute extensive anterolateral myocardial infarction.During the intervention,the balloon could not be filled when the stent was released from the left anterior descending artery,and the retracting stent could not be used to remove the guide catheter.The stent was dislodged and embedded in the distal vessel.The sheath was inserted through the proximal radial reverse puncture,and the stent was captured with a snare and removed.
8.Value of Red Blood Cell Distribution Width Combined With BISAP Score in Early Prediction of Severe Acute Pancreatitis
Xian TU ; Yan LIU ; Chunyan YANG ; Yan SHEN ; Yiqing WANG ; Deqiong CHEN ; Qi JI ; Qingming WU
Chinese Journal of Gastroenterology 2025;30(1):9-15
Background:The incidence and mortality rates of severe acute pancreatitis(SAP)have been increasing year by year.Therefore,early and rapid identification,along with timely intervention in the progression of acute pancreatitis(AP),is of particular importance.Aims:To explore the value of red blood cell distribution width(RDW)combined with BISAP score in the early prediction of SAP.Methods:A total of 561 AP patients admitted from January 2019 to December 2021 at the General Hospital of the Central Theater Command of the PLA were enrolled and divided into SAP group and non-SAP group according to the disease severity.Venous blood samples were collected within 24 hours of admission.The relevant clinical data,laboratory indices,BISAP score,and MCTSI score were compared between the two groups.Logistic regression analysis was used to identify the risk factors for SAP.Spearman correlation coefficient was employed to assess the correlation of these risk factors with the severity of AP,as well as the correlation of RDW with BISAP score and MCTSI score.The predictive values of these risk factors for SAP were evaluated by ROC curve analysis.Results:Compared with the non-SAP group,the prevalence of hypertension,length and cost of hospital stay,neutrophil count(NEUT),neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio(NLR),RDW,serum potassium,aspartate transaminase(AST),blood urea nitrogen(BUN),serum creatinine(SCr),BISAP score and MCTSI score were significantly increased in the SAP group(all P<0.05),while the lymphocyte count(LYM),serum calcium and albumin(ALB)were significantly decreased(all P<0.05).RDW(OR=1.582,95%CI:1.066-2.348,P=0.023),SCr(OR=1.018,95%CI:1.001-1.035,P=0.040),BISAP score(OR=6.210,95%CI:3.121-12.356,P<0.001),and MCTSI score(OR=2.917,95%CI:2.160-3.939,P<0.001)were the independent risk factors for SAP.RDW(rs=0.320,P<0.001),SCr(rs=0.103,P=0.015),BISAP score(rs=0.516,P<0.001),and MCTSI score(rs=0.512,P<0.001)were positively correlated with the severity of AP.Moreover,RDW was positively correlated with BISAP score(rs=0.428,P<0.001)and MCTSI score(rs=0.408,P<0.001).ROC curve analysis revealed that the areas under the ROC curve of RDW,SCr,BISAP score,MCTSI score,and combination of RDW and BISAP score for predicting SAP were 0.753,0.581,0.889,0.888,and 0.905,respectively.Conclusions:RDW,SCr,BISAP score,and MCTSI score are the independent risk factors for SAP.RDW combined with BISAP score can enhance the predictive value for SAP.
9.Analysis of proportion and trend prediction of disability-adjusted life years attributed to aging population in common diges-tive system malignant tumors in China
Ji LI ; Yang CHEN ; Maorong ZHANG ; Zhao YANG ; Xian TANG ; Hongmei WEN
Practical Oncology Journal 2025;39(5):372-380
Objective The aim of this study was to analyze the proportion of disability adjusted life years(DALYs)attributed to aging population in common digestive system malignancies in China,and predict the proportion and the trends of DALYs attributed to aging proportion from 2022 to 2046.Methods Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021,the DALY data of esophageal cancer,stomach cancer,colorectal cancer,pancreatic cancer,liver cancer,gallbladder and biliary tract cancer of Chinese people aged≥25 years from 1990 to 2021 were selected.The age-period-birth models were used to predict the DALY of malignant tumors from 2022 to 2046.The changes of DALY from 1990 to 2046 were decomposed into population growth,population aging,and age-specific DALY rate changes,and analyze the proportion of DALY changes attributable to population aging and its change trend.Results From 1990 to 2021,the DALY change rates of esophageal cancer,stomach cancer,colorectal cancer,pancreatic cancer,liver cancer,gall-bladder and biliary tract cancer in Chinese people aged≥25 years were 18.20%,-0.34%,98.10%,164.16%,58.21%and 90.62%,respectively.Compared with 2021,the proportion of DALY changes attributed to population aging for six types of malignant tumors in 1990 was from-38.32%to-19.72%.The top three cancer types with the highest attribution ratios were stomach cancer(-38.32%),esophageal cancer(-38.07%),gallbladder and biliary tract cancer(-29.78%).The expected change rates of DALY for the six types of malignant tumors from 2021 to 2046 were 20.72%,11.50%,58.19%,57.38%,21.36%and 48.39%,respective-ly.By compared with 2021,the proportion of DALY changes of six malignant tumors attributed to population aging in 2046 was from 18.82%to 47.83%,and the top three cancers attributed to the proportion were gallbladder and biliary tract cancer(47.83%),color-ectal cancer(43.07%)and pancreatic cancer(38.76%).From 2022 to 2046,the proportion of DALY changes attributed to aging pop-ulation for the six types of malignant tumors would continue to rise(P<0.001).The proportions of colorectal cancer and pancreatic cancer attributed to population aging and the proportion of age-specific DALY rate were both positive and rising(P<0.001),which would eventually promote the further increase of DALY.Conclusion Population aging has become the main driving factor for the growth of DALY in digestive system malignant tumors in China.The impact on DALY of colorectal cancer and pancreatic cancer will be prominent in the future.Targeted prevention and control strategies should be developed to actively respond to population aging.
10.Analysis of proportion and trend prediction of disability-adjusted life years attributed to aging population in common diges-tive system malignant tumors in China
Ji LI ; Yang CHEN ; Maorong ZHANG ; Zhao YANG ; Xian TANG ; Hongmei WEN
Practical Oncology Journal 2025;39(5):372-380
Objective The aim of this study was to analyze the proportion of disability adjusted life years(DALYs)attributed to aging population in common digestive system malignancies in China,and predict the proportion and the trends of DALYs attributed to aging proportion from 2022 to 2046.Methods Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021,the DALY data of esophageal cancer,stomach cancer,colorectal cancer,pancreatic cancer,liver cancer,gallbladder and biliary tract cancer of Chinese people aged≥25 years from 1990 to 2021 were selected.The age-period-birth models were used to predict the DALY of malignant tumors from 2022 to 2046.The changes of DALY from 1990 to 2046 were decomposed into population growth,population aging,and age-specific DALY rate changes,and analyze the proportion of DALY changes attributable to population aging and its change trend.Results From 1990 to 2021,the DALY change rates of esophageal cancer,stomach cancer,colorectal cancer,pancreatic cancer,liver cancer,gall-bladder and biliary tract cancer in Chinese people aged≥25 years were 18.20%,-0.34%,98.10%,164.16%,58.21%and 90.62%,respectively.Compared with 2021,the proportion of DALY changes attributed to population aging for six types of malignant tumors in 1990 was from-38.32%to-19.72%.The top three cancer types with the highest attribution ratios were stomach cancer(-38.32%),esophageal cancer(-38.07%),gallbladder and biliary tract cancer(-29.78%).The expected change rates of DALY for the six types of malignant tumors from 2021 to 2046 were 20.72%,11.50%,58.19%,57.38%,21.36%and 48.39%,respective-ly.By compared with 2021,the proportion of DALY changes of six malignant tumors attributed to population aging in 2046 was from 18.82%to 47.83%,and the top three cancers attributed to the proportion were gallbladder and biliary tract cancer(47.83%),color-ectal cancer(43.07%)and pancreatic cancer(38.76%).From 2022 to 2046,the proportion of DALY changes attributed to aging pop-ulation for the six types of malignant tumors would continue to rise(P<0.001).The proportions of colorectal cancer and pancreatic cancer attributed to population aging and the proportion of age-specific DALY rate were both positive and rising(P<0.001),which would eventually promote the further increase of DALY.Conclusion Population aging has become the main driving factor for the growth of DALY in digestive system malignant tumors in China.The impact on DALY of colorectal cancer and pancreatic cancer will be prominent in the future.Targeted prevention and control strategies should be developed to actively respond to population aging.

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