1.Blood management strategy for massive transfusion patients in frigid plateau region
Haiying WANG ; Jinjin ZHANG ; Lili CHEN ; Xiaoli SUN ; Cui WEI ; Yongli HUANG ; Yingchun ZHU ; Chong CHEN ; Yanchao XING
Chinese Journal of Blood Transfusion 2025;38(2):268-273
[Objective] To explore the strategy of blood management in patients with massive transfusion in the frigid plateau region. [Methods] The treatment process of a patient with liver rupture in the frigid plateau region was analyzed, and the blood management strategy of the frigid plateau region was discussed in combination with the difficulties of blood transfusion and literature review. [Results] The preoperative complete blood count (CBC) test results of the patient were as follows: RBC 3.14×1012/L, Hb 106 g/L, HCT 30.40%, PLT 115.00×109/L; coagulation function: PT 18.9 s, FiB 1.31 g/L, DD > 6 μg/mL, FDP 25.86 μg/mL; ultrasound examination and imaging manifestations suggested liver contusion and laceration / intraparenchymal hematoma, splenic contusion and laceration, and massive blood accumulation in the abdominal cavity; it was estimated that the patient's blood loss was ≥ 2 000 mL, and massive blood transfusion was required during the operation; red blood cell components were timely transfused during the operation, and the blood component transfusion was guided according to the patient's CBC and coagulation function test results, providing strong support and guarantee for the successful treatment of the patient. The patient recovered well after the operation, and the CBC test results were as follows: RBC 4.32×1012/L, Hb 144 g/L, HCT 39.50%, PLT 329.00×109/L; coagulation function: APTT 29.3 s, PT 12.1 s, FiB 2.728 g/L, DD>6 μg/mL, FDP 25.86 μg/mL. The patient was discharged after 20 days, and regular follow-up reexamination showed no abnormal results. [Conclusion] Individualized blood management strategy should comprehensively consider the patient’s clinical symptoms, the degree of hemoglobin decline, dynamic coagulation test results and existing treatment conditions. Efficient and reasonable patient blood management strategies can effectively improve the clinical outcomes of massive transfusion patients in the frigid plateau region.
2.Phase changes and quantity-quality transfer of raw material, calcined decoction pieces, and standard decoction of Ostreae Concha (Ostrea rivularis).
Hong-Yi ZHANG ; Jing-Wei ZHOU ; Jia-Wen LIU ; Wen-Bo FEI ; Shi-Ru HUANG ; Yu-Mei CHEN ; Chong-Yang LI ; Fei-Fei LI ; Qiao-Ling MA ; Fu WANG ; Yuan HU ; You-Ping LIU ; Shi-Lin CHEN ; Lin CHEN ; Hong-Ping CHEN
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(5):1209-1223
The phase changes and quantity-quality transfer of 17 batches of Ostreae Concha(Ostrea rivularis) during the raw material-calcined decoction pieces-standard decoction process were analyzed. The content of calcium carbonate(CaCO_3), the main component, was determined by chemical titration, and the extract yield and transfer rate were calculated. The CaCO_3 content in the raw material, calcined decoction pieces, and standard decoction was 94.39%-98.80%, 95.03%-99.22%, and 84.58%-90.47%, respectively. The process of raw material to calcined decoction pieces showed the yield range of 96.85% to 98.55% and the CaCO_3 transfer rate range of 96.92% to 99.27%. The process of calcined decoction pieces to standard decoction showed the extract yield range of 2.86% to 5.48% and the CaCO_3 transfer rate range of 2.59% to 5.13%. The results of X-ray fluorescence(XRF) assay showed that the raw material, calcined decoction pieces, and standard decoction mainly contained Ca, Na, Mg, Si, Br, Cl, Al, Fe, Cr, Mn, and K. The chemometric results showed an increase in the relative content of Cr, Fe, and Si from raw material to calcined decoction pieces and an increase in the relative content of Mg, Al, Br, K, Cl, and Na from calcined decoction pieces to standard decoction. X-ray diffraction(XRD) was employed to establish XRD characteristic patterns of the raw material, calcined decoction pieces, and standard decoction. The XRD results showed that the main phase of all three was calcite, and no transformation of crystalline form or generation of new phase was observed. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy(FTIR) was employed to establish the FTIR characteristic spectra of the raw material, calcined decoction pieces, and standard decoction. The FTIR results showed that the raw material had internal vibrations of O-H, C-H, C=O, C-O, and CO■ groups. Due to the loss of organic matter components after calcination, no information about the vibrations of C-H, C=O, and C-O groups was observed in the spectra of calcined decoction pieces and standard decoction. In summary, this study elucidated the quantity-quality transfer and phase changes in the raw material-calcined decoction pieces-standard decoction process by determining the CaCO_3 content, calculating the extract yield and transfer rate, and comparing the element changes, FTIR characteristic spectra, and XRD characteristic pattern. The results were reasonable and reliable, laying a foundation for the subsequent process research and quality control of the formula granules of calcined Ostreae Concha(O. rivularis Gould), and providing ideas and methods for the quality control of the whole process of raw material-decoction pieces-standard decoction-formula granules of Ostreae Concha and other testacean traditional Chinese medicine.
Drugs, Chinese Herbal/isolation & purification*
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Calcium Carbonate/analysis*
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Quality Control
3.Association between Fish Consumption and Stroke Incidence Across Different Predicted Risk Populations: A Prospective Cohort Study from China.
Hong Yue HU ; Fang Chao LIU ; Ke Yong HUANG ; Chong SHEN ; Jian LIAO ; Jian Xin LI ; Chen Xi YUAN ; Ying LI ; Xue Li YANG ; Ji Chun CHEN ; Jie CAO ; Shu Feng CHEN ; Dong Sheng HU ; Jian Feng HUANG ; Xiang Feng LU ; Dong Feng GU
Biomedical and Environmental Sciences 2025;38(1):15-26
OBJECTIVE:
The relationship between fish consumption and stroke is inconsistent, and it is uncertain whether this association varies across predicted stroke risks.
METHODS:
A cohort study comprising 95,800 participants from the Prediction for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk in China project was conducted. A standardized questionnaire was used to collect data on fish consumption. Participants were stratified into low- and moderate-to-high-risk categories based on their 10-year stroke risk prediction scores. Hazard ratios ( HRs) and 95% confidence intervals ( CIs) were estimated using Cox proportional hazard models and additive interaction by relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI), attributable proportion (AP), and synergy index (SI).
RESULTS:
During 703,869 person-years of follow-up, 2,773 incident stroke events were identified. Higher fish consumption was associated with a lower risk of stroke, particularly among moderate-to-high-risk individuals ( HR = 0.53, 95% CI: 0.47-0.60) than among low-risk individuals ( HR = 0.64, 95% CI: 0.49-0.85). A significant additive interaction between fish consumption and predicted stroke risk was observed (RERI = 4.08, 95% CI: 2.80-5.36; SI = 1.64, 95% CI: 1.42-1.89; AP = 0.36, 95% CI: 0.28-0.43).
CONCLUSION
Higher fish consumption was associated with a lower risk of stroke, and this beneficial association was more pronounced in individuals with moderate-to-high stroke risk.
Humans
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China/epidemiology*
;
Male
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Female
;
Stroke/etiology*
;
Middle Aged
;
Prospective Studies
;
Incidence
;
Aged
;
Animals
;
Fishes
;
Risk Factors
;
Diet
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Seafood
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Adult
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Cohort Studies
4.Health status analysis of blood donors: based on the ordinal multinomial logistic regression model
Fanfan FENG ; Guiyun XIE ; Xuecheng DENG ; Jian OUYANG ; Chong CHEN ; Xiaochun HONG ; Sihai ZENG ; Yue ZHANG ; Manyu HUANG ; Jinyan CHEN ; Xia RONG ; Shijie LI
Chinese Journal of Blood Transfusion 2024;37(11):1281-1287
[Objective] To explore the characteristics of lifestyle behaviors and mental health status among blood donors in Guangzhou, and to investigate the correlation between donation frequency and these factors. [Methods] A cross-sectional study was conducted among 13 042 whole blood donors from 17 street blood donation sites of Guangzhou Blood Center from May to August 2020. Descriptive analysis was used to describe the characteristics of lifestyle behaviors and mental health status among blood donors in Guangzhou. Ordinal multinomial logistic regression model was used to analyze the correlation between donation frequency and these factors. [Results] It was found that some of 13 042 blood donors had unhealthy habits, such as 6.8% (698/10 214,2 828 missing values) had severe tobacco dependence, 30.6% (3 997/13 042) had low exercise levels, 38.8%(5 056/13 042)had poor sleep quality, and 2.2% (271/12 159,883 missing values) had alcohol dependence. In addition, 2.8% (364/13 042) and 1.3% (172/13 042) of the donors may have moderate to severe depression and anxiety symptoms, respectively. The results of the ordinal multinomial logistic regression model showed that exercise level was significantly negatively correlated with the degree of depression and anxiety among blood donors. With the decrease in exercise level, the possibility of depression and anxiety among donors increased significantly. BMI, household income, education level, marital status, donation frequency, alcohol consumption and smoking had no significant correlation with the mental health status of donors. [Conclusion] Improving the exercise habits of blood donors may help enhance their mental health level. It is recommended that blood station staff strengthen the content of exercise when providing health education to blood donors to maintain a healthy lifestyle. It also suggests that there may be a certain degree of under-diagnosis of mental health problems in the process of health consultation before blood donation, and conducting more comprehensive and effective mental health assessments for blood donors is recommended.
5.Comparison of interobserver variations in delineation of target volumes and organs-at-risk for intensity-modulated radiotherapy of nasopharyngeal carcinoma among physicians from different levels of cancer centers
Meining CHEN ; Yimei LIU ; Yinglin PENG ; Qiuying XIE ; Jinping SHI ; Rong HUANG ; Chong ZHAO ; Xiaowu DENG ; Meijuan ZHOU
Chinese Journal of Medical Physics 2024;41(3):265-272
Objective To assess inter-observer variations(IOV)in the delineation of target volumes and organs-at-risk(OAR)for intensity-modulated radiotherapy(IMRT)of nasopharyngeal carcinoma(NPC)among physicians from different levels of cancer centers,thereby providing a reference for quality control in multi-center clinical trials.Methods Twelve patients with NPC of different TMN stages were randomly selected.Three physicians from the same municipal cancer center manually delineated the target volume(GTVnx)and OAR for each patient.The manually modified and confirmed target volume(GTVnx)and OAR delineation structures by radiotherapy experts from the regional cancer center were used as the standard delineation.The absolute volume difference ratio(△V_diff),maximum/minimum volume ratio(MMR),coefficient of variation(CV),and Dice similarity coefficient(DSC)were used to compare the differences in organ delineation among physicians from different levels of cancer centers and among the 3 physicians from the same municipal cancer center.Furthermore,the IOV of GTVnx and OAR among physicians from different levels cancer centers were compared across different TMN stages.Results Significant differences in the delineation of GTVnx were observed among physicians from different levels of cancer centers.Among the 3 physicians,the maximum values of △V_diff,MMR,and CV were 97.23%±83.45%,2.19±0.75,and 0.31±0.14,respectively,with an average DSC of less than 0.7.Additionally,there were considerable differences in the delineation of small-volume OAR such as the left and right optic nerves,chiasm,and pituitary,with average MMR>2.8,CV>0.37,and DSC<0.51.However,relatively smaller differences were observed in the delineation of large-volume OAR such as the brainstem,spinal cord,left and right eyeballs,and left and right mandible,with average△V_diff<42%,MMR<1.55,and DSC>0.7.Compared with the differences among physicians from different levels cancer centers,the differences among the 3 physicians from the municipal cancer center were slightly reduced.Furthermore,there were also differences in the delineation of target volumes for NPC among physicians from different levels cancer centers,depending on the staging of the disease.Compared with the delineation of target volumes for earlier stage patients(stages I or II),the differences among physicians in the delineation of target volumes for advanced stage patients(stages III or IV)were smaller,with average △V_diff and DSC of 98.31%±67.36%vs 69.38%±72.61%(P<0.05)and 0.55±0.08 vs 0.72±0.12(P<0.05),respectively.Conclusion There are differences in the delineation of GTVnx and OAR in radiation therapy for NPC among physicians from different levels of cancer centers,especially in the delineation of target volume(GTVnx)and small-volume OAR for early-stage patients.To ensure the accuracy of multicenter clinical trials,it is recommended to provide unified training to physicians from different levels of cancer centers and review their delineation results to reduce the effect of differences on treatment outcomes.
6.Analysis of the epidemic characteristics of reported pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in Kashgar Prefecture, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region from 2015 to 2022 and establishment of SARIMA prediction
Chong TENG ; Fang XIE ; Bing ZHAO ; Lijie ZHANG ; Hui LI ; Yuanyuan SONG ; Yang ZHENG ; Yang ZHOU ; Jing WANG ; Fei HUANG ; Mingting CHEN ; Xichao OU
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine 2024;58(11):1665-1672
Objective:To analyze the epidemic characteristics of reported tuberculosis incidence in Kashgar from 2015 to 2022, and use the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to predict the incidence, providing references for the local control of pulmonary tuberculosis.Methods:The reported incidence data of tuberculosis in the Kashgar area of Xinjiang from January 2015 to August 2023 were collected through the"Infectious Disease Monitoring System", a subsystem of the "Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System". The epidemic characteristics of reported incidence in this area from 2015 to 2022 were analyzed. Two SARIMA models of monthly reported incidence number and rate were established. The prediction performance of the two models was evaluated using the reported incidence data of tuberculosis from January 2023 to August 2023. The χ2 test was used to analyze population characteristics, and the Cochran-Armitage trend test was used to analyze annual incidence. Results:From 2015 to 2022, 133 972 cases of pulmonary tuberculosis were reported in Kashgar, with a yearly reported incidence rate of 383.64/100 000, showing a rising trend ( TCA=77.03, P<0.001) and then a declining trend ( TCA=176.16, P<0.001). The proportion of pathogenic positive pulmonary tuberculosis had increased yearly ( TCA=132.66, P<0.001). The reported onset time was concentrated from January to June each year, with a peak in April. Yengisar County, Zepu County and Yopurga County had the highest reported incidence rate in Kashgar. The sex ratio of men to women was 1.03∶1, and the reported incidence rate of men was higher than that of women ( χ2=27.04, P<0.001). The reported incidence rate of the group aged 60 years and older was the highest. The patient′s occupation was mainly farmers (84.99%). The average relative errors of the SARIMA ( 1, 1, 2) ( 0, 1, 1) 12 model and SARIMA ( 0, 1, 1)( 0, 1, 1) 12 model in predicting the reported monthly incidence number and rate were 11.67% and -9.81%, respectively. Both models had good prediction accuracy (MAPE=33.55%, MAPE=38.22%). Conclusion:The average reported incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis in the Kashgar area shows a rising trend first and then a declining trend. The patients are mainly men and farmers, and attention should be paid to the prevention and control of tuberculosis among the elderly in winter and spring. The SARIMA ( 1, 1, 2) ( 0, 1, 1) 12 model and SARIMA ( 0, 1, 1)( 0, 1, 1) 12 model can fit the trend of reported tuberculosis incidence in the Kashgar area well and have good predictive performance.
7.Exploration and validation of optimal cut-off values for tPSA and fPSA/tPSA screening of prostate cancer at different ages
Xiaomin LIU ; Hongyuan DUAN ; Dongqi ZHANG ; Chong CHEN ; Yuting JI ; Yunmeng ZHANG ; Zhuowei FENG ; Ya LIU ; Jingjing LI ; Yu ZHANG ; Chenyang LI ; Yacong ZHANG ; Lei YANG ; Zhangyan LYU ; Fangfang SONG ; Fengju SONG ; Yubei HUANG
Chinese Journal of Oncology 2024;46(4):354-364
Objective:To determine the total and age-specific cut-off values of total prostate specific antigen (tPSA) and the ratio of free PSA divided total PSA (fPSA/tPSA) for screening prostate cancer in China.Methods:Based on the Chinese Colorectal, Breast, Lung, Liver, and Stomach cancer Screening Trial (C-BLAST) and the Tianjin Common Cancer Case Cohort (TJ4C), males who were not diagnosed with any cancers at baseline since 2017 and received both tPSA and fPSA testes were selected. Based on Cox regression, the overall and age-specific (<60, 60-<70, and ≥70 years) accuracy and optimal cut-off values of tPSA and fPSA/tPSA ratio for screening prostate cancer were evaluated with time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (tdROC) and area under curve (AUC). Bootstrap resampling was used to internally validate the stability of the optimal cut-off value, and the PLCO study was used to externally validate the accuracy under different cut-off values.Results:A total of 5 180 participants were included in the study, and after a median follow-up of 1.48 years, a total of 332 prostate cancer patients were included. In the total population, the tdAUC of tPSA and fPSA/tPSA screening for prostate cancer were 0.852 and 0.748, respectively, with the optimal cut-off values of 5.08 ng/ml and 0.173, respectively. After age stratification, the age specific cut-off values of tPSA in the <60, 60-<70, and ≥70 age groups were 3.13, 4.82, and 11.54 ng/ml, respectively, while the age-specific cut-off values of fPSA/tPSA were 0.153, 0.135, and 0.130, respectively. Under the age-specific cut-off values, the sensitivities of tPSA screening for prostate cancer in males <60, 60-70, and ≥70 years old were 92.3%, 82.0%, and 77.6%, respectively, while the specificities were 84.7%, 81.3%, and 75.4%, respectively. The age-specific sensitivities of fPSA/tPSA for screening prostate cancer were 74.4%, 53.3%, and 55.9%, respectively, while the specificities were 83.8%, 83.7%, and 83.7%, respectively. Both bootstrap's internal validation and PLCO external validation provided similar results. The combination of tPSA and fPSA/tPSA could further improve the accuracy of screening.Conclusion:To improve the screening effects, it is recommended that age-specific cut-off values of tPSA and fPSA/tPSA should be used to screen for prostate cancer in the general risk population.
8.Analysis of the epidemic characteristics of reported pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in Kashgar Prefecture, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region from 2015 to 2022 and establishment of SARIMA prediction
Chong TENG ; Fang XIE ; Bing ZHAO ; Lijie ZHANG ; Hui LI ; Yuanyuan SONG ; Yang ZHENG ; Yang ZHOU ; Jing WANG ; Fei HUANG ; Mingting CHEN ; Xichao OU
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine 2024;58(11):1665-1672
Objective:To analyze the epidemic characteristics of reported tuberculosis incidence in Kashgar from 2015 to 2022, and use the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to predict the incidence, providing references for the local control of pulmonary tuberculosis.Methods:The reported incidence data of tuberculosis in the Kashgar area of Xinjiang from January 2015 to August 2023 were collected through the"Infectious Disease Monitoring System", a subsystem of the "Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System". The epidemic characteristics of reported incidence in this area from 2015 to 2022 were analyzed. Two SARIMA models of monthly reported incidence number and rate were established. The prediction performance of the two models was evaluated using the reported incidence data of tuberculosis from January 2023 to August 2023. The χ2 test was used to analyze population characteristics, and the Cochran-Armitage trend test was used to analyze annual incidence. Results:From 2015 to 2022, 133 972 cases of pulmonary tuberculosis were reported in Kashgar, with a yearly reported incidence rate of 383.64/100 000, showing a rising trend ( TCA=77.03, P<0.001) and then a declining trend ( TCA=176.16, P<0.001). The proportion of pathogenic positive pulmonary tuberculosis had increased yearly ( TCA=132.66, P<0.001). The reported onset time was concentrated from January to June each year, with a peak in April. Yengisar County, Zepu County and Yopurga County had the highest reported incidence rate in Kashgar. The sex ratio of men to women was 1.03∶1, and the reported incidence rate of men was higher than that of women ( χ2=27.04, P<0.001). The reported incidence rate of the group aged 60 years and older was the highest. The patient′s occupation was mainly farmers (84.99%). The average relative errors of the SARIMA ( 1, 1, 2) ( 0, 1, 1) 12 model and SARIMA ( 0, 1, 1)( 0, 1, 1) 12 model in predicting the reported monthly incidence number and rate were 11.67% and -9.81%, respectively. Both models had good prediction accuracy (MAPE=33.55%, MAPE=38.22%). Conclusion:The average reported incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis in the Kashgar area shows a rising trend first and then a declining trend. The patients are mainly men and farmers, and attention should be paid to the prevention and control of tuberculosis among the elderly in winter and spring. The SARIMA ( 1, 1, 2) ( 0, 1, 1) 12 model and SARIMA ( 0, 1, 1)( 0, 1, 1) 12 model can fit the trend of reported tuberculosis incidence in the Kashgar area well and have good predictive performance.
9.Exploration and validation of optimal cut-off values for tPSA and fPSA/tPSA screening of prostate cancer at different ages
Xiaomin LIU ; Hongyuan DUAN ; Dongqi ZHANG ; Chong CHEN ; Yuting JI ; Yunmeng ZHANG ; Zhuowei FENG ; Ya LIU ; Jingjing LI ; Yu ZHANG ; Chenyang LI ; Yacong ZHANG ; Lei YANG ; Zhangyan LYU ; Fangfang SONG ; Fengju SONG ; Yubei HUANG
Chinese Journal of Oncology 2024;46(4):354-364
Objective:To determine the total and age-specific cut-off values of total prostate specific antigen (tPSA) and the ratio of free PSA divided total PSA (fPSA/tPSA) for screening prostate cancer in China.Methods:Based on the Chinese Colorectal, Breast, Lung, Liver, and Stomach cancer Screening Trial (C-BLAST) and the Tianjin Common Cancer Case Cohort (TJ4C), males who were not diagnosed with any cancers at baseline since 2017 and received both tPSA and fPSA testes were selected. Based on Cox regression, the overall and age-specific (<60, 60-<70, and ≥70 years) accuracy and optimal cut-off values of tPSA and fPSA/tPSA ratio for screening prostate cancer were evaluated with time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (tdROC) and area under curve (AUC). Bootstrap resampling was used to internally validate the stability of the optimal cut-off value, and the PLCO study was used to externally validate the accuracy under different cut-off values.Results:A total of 5 180 participants were included in the study, and after a median follow-up of 1.48 years, a total of 332 prostate cancer patients were included. In the total population, the tdAUC of tPSA and fPSA/tPSA screening for prostate cancer were 0.852 and 0.748, respectively, with the optimal cut-off values of 5.08 ng/ml and 0.173, respectively. After age stratification, the age specific cut-off values of tPSA in the <60, 60-<70, and ≥70 age groups were 3.13, 4.82, and 11.54 ng/ml, respectively, while the age-specific cut-off values of fPSA/tPSA were 0.153, 0.135, and 0.130, respectively. Under the age-specific cut-off values, the sensitivities of tPSA screening for prostate cancer in males <60, 60-70, and ≥70 years old were 92.3%, 82.0%, and 77.6%, respectively, while the specificities were 84.7%, 81.3%, and 75.4%, respectively. The age-specific sensitivities of fPSA/tPSA for screening prostate cancer were 74.4%, 53.3%, and 55.9%, respectively, while the specificities were 83.8%, 83.7%, and 83.7%, respectively. Both bootstrap's internal validation and PLCO external validation provided similar results. The combination of tPSA and fPSA/tPSA could further improve the accuracy of screening.Conclusion:To improve the screening effects, it is recommended that age-specific cut-off values of tPSA and fPSA/tPSA should be used to screen for prostate cancer in the general risk population.
10.Artificial intelligence predicts direct-acting antivirals failure among hepatitis C virus patients: A nationwide hepatitis C virus registry program
Ming-Ying LU ; Chung-Feng HUANG ; Chao-Hung HUNG ; Chi‐Ming TAI ; Lein-Ray MO ; Hsing-Tao KUO ; Kuo-Chih TSENG ; Ching-Chu LO ; Ming-Jong BAIR ; Szu-Jen WANG ; Jee-Fu HUANG ; Ming-Lun YEH ; Chun-Ting CHEN ; Ming-Chang TSAI ; Chien-Wei HUANG ; Pei-Lun LEE ; Tzeng-Hue YANG ; Yi-Hsiang HUANG ; Lee-Won CHONG ; Chien-Lin CHEN ; Chi-Chieh YANG ; Sheng‐Shun YANG ; Pin-Nan CHENG ; Tsai-Yuan HSIEH ; Jui-Ting HU ; Wen-Chih WU ; Chien-Yu CHENG ; Guei-Ying CHEN ; Guo-Xiong ZHOU ; Wei-Lun TSAI ; Chien-Neng KAO ; Chih-Lang LIN ; Chia-Chi WANG ; Ta-Ya LIN ; Chih‐Lin LIN ; Wei-Wen SU ; Tzong-Hsi LEE ; Te-Sheng CHANG ; Chun-Jen LIU ; Chia-Yen DAI ; Jia-Horng KAO ; Han-Chieh LIN ; Wan-Long CHUANG ; Cheng-Yuan PENG ; Chun-Wei- TSAI ; Chi-Yi CHEN ; Ming-Lung YU ;
Clinical and Molecular Hepatology 2024;30(1):64-79
Background/Aims:
Despite the high efficacy of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs), approximately 1–3% of hepatitis C virus (HCV) patients fail to achieve a sustained virological response. We conducted a nationwide study to investigate risk factors associated with DAA treatment failure. Machine-learning algorithms have been applied to discriminate subjects who may fail to respond to DAA therapy.
Methods:
We analyzed the Taiwan HCV Registry Program database to explore predictors of DAA failure in HCV patients. Fifty-five host and virological features were assessed using multivariate logistic regression, decision tree, random forest, eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and artificial neural network. The primary outcome was undetectable HCV RNA at 12 weeks after the end of treatment.
Results:
The training (n=23,955) and validation (n=10,346) datasets had similar baseline demographics, with an overall DAA failure rate of 1.6% (n=538). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that liver cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, poor DAA adherence, and higher hemoglobin A1c were significantly associated with virological failure. XGBoost outperformed the other algorithms and logistic regression models, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 1.000 in the training dataset and 0.803 in the validation dataset. The top five predictors of treatment failure were HCV RNA, body mass index, α-fetoprotein, platelets, and FIB-4 index. The accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of the XGBoost model (cutoff value=0.5) were 99.5%, 69.7%, 99.9%, 97.4%, and 99.5%, respectively, for the entire dataset.
Conclusions
Machine learning algorithms effectively provide risk stratification for DAA failure and additional information on the factors associated with DAA failure.

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