1.Risk factors and prediction model construction of bacterial infection after gastroscopy in patients with cirrhosis and gastroesophageal varices
Xiangyu FANG ; Chuan SHEN ; Luyuan MA ; Yuexia LIU ; Chun LIU ; Caiyan ZHAO
Chinese Journal of Infectious Diseases 2025;43(8):457-464
Objective:To analyze the risk factors of bacterial infection in patients with liver cirrhosis complicated with gastroesophageal varices after gastroscopy, and to construct a prediction model.Methods:Patients with gastroesophageal varices due to cirrhosis who underwent gastroscopy in the Third Hospital of Hebei Medical University from January 2021 to May 2023 were enrolled. All patients were divided into infection group and non-infection group according to whether bacterial infection occurred after gastroscopy. The detection of pathogens in the infection group and the source of specimens were analyzed. Multivariate binary logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors of postoperative bacterial infection in patients with cirrhosis and gastroesophageal varices. The nomogram was drawn by R language to construct a risk prediction model. Receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve), calibration curve, Hosmer-Lemeshow test and decision curve were used to evaluate the model.Results:Among the 480 patients, 57 had postoperative bacterial infection and 423 had no infection. The incidence of infection was 11.88%(57/480). Seventy bacterial culture positive samples were obtained, mainly from blood and respiratory tract (30 samples (42.86%) and 25 samples (35.71%), respectively). A total of 82 strains of pathogenic bacteria were isolated, including 16 strains of Escherichia coli and 14 strains of Staphylococcus aureus. Multivariate binary regression analysis showed that length of hospital stay (odds ratio ( OR)=1.13, 95% confidence interval ( CI) 1.06 to 1.20, P<0.001), age ( OR=1.06, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.10, P=0.006), model for end-stage liver disease combined with sodium (MELD-Na) score ( OR=1.10, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.18, P=0.014), diabetes ( OR=1.25, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.96, P=0.043) and emergency gastroscopy ( OR=2.95, 95% CI 1.20 to 7.25, P=0.019) were independent risk factors for bacterial infection after gastroscopy in patients with cirrhosis and gastroesophageal varices. Based on the above risk factors, a nomogram prediction model was constructed. The results of ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve of the nomogram model for predicting bacterial infection after gastroscopy of gastroesophageal varices in cirrhosis was 0.82 (95% CI 0.73 to 0.90). The slope of the calibration curve was 0.98(95% CI 0.92 to 1.04), indicating that the predicted probability of the model was in good agreement with the actual probability. The results of Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed that the nomogram model fitted well ( χ2=6.35, P=0.415). The decision curve analysis showed that the clinical net benefit rate of the nomogram model was >0 when the threshold probability was 0.039 to 0.410. Conclusions:Older age, length of hospital stay, MELD-Na score, history of diabetes, and emergency gastroscopy are independent risk factors for bacterial infection after gastroscopy in patients with cirrhosis and gastroesophageal varices. The prediction model constructed in this study has a good predictive value for bacterial infection in such patients.
2.Visualization analysis of research progress on carbapenem-resistant Gram-negative bacteria based on VOSviewer and CiteSpace
Xiaotong ZHANG ; Shu WANG ; Ce ZHANG ; Mengyao LYU ; Chengshuai YANG ; Qiuting WANG ; Caiyan ZHAO ; Chuan SHEN
Chinese Journal of Infectious Diseases 2025;43(4):219-231
Objective:Bibliometric analysis was performed to map scientific knowledge landscape, so that to explore the research status and future trends in the field of carbapenem-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (CRGNB) over the past decade.Methods:Literature on CRGNB published between January 1st, 2015 and December 31st, 2024 was retrieved from the China National Knowledge Internet (CNKI) database and Web of Science Core Collection (WoSCC). VOSviewer and CiteSpace were used for bibliometric analysis.Results:A total of 3 340 Chinese and 10 761 English publications were included in this study. The annual Chinese publications remained stable, while English publications exhibited a linear growth. It was anticipated that the English publications would decline in the forthcoming years, although remaining high. China contributed the highest number of publications, and Zhejiang University was the institution with the largest number of publications. Bonomo RA, Chen L, etc. were high-impact authors in the field of CRGNB and had formed a stable cooperative group. Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy was the journal with the largest number of publications. High-frequency keywords in the domain of CRGNB were comprehensively categorized into four distinct clusters, including carbapenem resistance mechanisms and gene transmission, antimicrobial drugs and combination therapy, management of critically ill patients, and infections and colonization. It was imperative to acknowledge the significance of all of these research areas. Burst word analysis suggested that carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales virulence genes as well as new isoforms of Klebsiella pneumoniae carbapenemase (KPC) had become a research hotspot. Conclusions:The issue of carbapenem resistance remains a significant concern. Current research focus on the resistance mechanisms and antimicrobial agents, highlighting its significant academic advancement and practical applications. Fostering international collaboration through academic exchanges between research teams worldwide is imperative to establish robust cooperative relationships, facilitate multidisciplinary cooperation, and promote high-quality research.
3.Longitudinal study of the quality of life and its influencing factors after PCI in patients with acute coronary syndrome
Journal of Xi'an Jiaotong University(Medical Sciences) 2025;46(3):419-425
Objective To investigate the quality of life of acute coronary syndrome patients(ACS)preoperatively to 6 months postoperatively percutaneous coronary intervention(PCI)and analyze its changing trend and influencing factors so as to provide reference for the improvement of ACS patients after PCI and direct for patient health management.Methods The patients with ACS were investigated for their sociodemographic characteristics,disease data,behavior and lifestyle and quality of life with the Seattle Angina Scale(SAQ)of PCI before PCI,1 month,3 months and 6 months after the surgery by means of medical records,face-to-face or telephone follow-up.Results A total of 235 ACS patients were surveyed before PCI,and 213(90.6%)of them who were successfully followed up to 6 months after PCI were included in this study,with a mean age of(62.67±9.18)years,and 76.1%being male.The results of the generalized estimation equation analysis showed that all the scores of the five dimensions of SAQ before PCI to 6 months after surgery,i.e.,physical limitation(Wald x2=83.118,P<0.001),angina stabilizaton stability(Wald x2=289.369,P<0.001),angina frequency(Wald x2=219.458,P<0.001),treatment satisfaction(Wald x2=159.055,P<0.001),and disease perception(Wald x2=130.839,P<0.001)increased overall(all P<0.001).However,the scores of physical limitation,angina stability and disease perception were only moderate at 6 months after surgery.The results of generalized linear model analysis showed that the factors affecting the quality of life before PCI to 6 months after PCI were gender,educational level,type of ACS,time to diagnosis,in-stent restenosis(ISR),tobacco smoking,and alcohol drinking.Conclusion The quality of life of the ACS patients gradually improved at 6 months after PCI,but the improvement effect of physical activity,angina stability and cognitive level was not ideal.Being female,low-level education,unstable angina,onset to diagnosis time 6 months or longer,occurrence of ISR,and postoperative tobacco smoking and alcohol drinking made patients have relatively low quality of life;therefore,more attention and guidance should be given to this group of population.
4.Profiling of risk factors for and prognosis of brucellar spondylitis
Tongtong SHEN ; Jing KUANG ; Yiran YAN ; Shuangqin TENG ; Wei WANG ; Yadong WANG ; Caiyan ZHAO
Chinese Journal of Infection and Chemotherapy 2025;25(4):376-383
Objective This study aimed to examine the risk factors and prognostic factors of brucellar spondylitis for early prevention and treatment of the disease,and improving the outcomes of patients.Methods A retrospective case-control study was conducted on the patients with brucellosis who were hospitalized in the Third Hospital of Hebei Medical University from June 2020 to June 2022.Patients were assigned to brucellosis without spondylitis group or brucellar spondylitis group according to the presence of spondylitis.The patients in brucellar spondylitis group were followed for 1 year.Then they were stratified into a subgroup of good or poor prognosis according to clinical outcomes.The dataset for the demographic and clinical variables of patients were analyzed using SPSS 26.0 software.Results A total of 300 patients with brucellosis were enrolled,including 113 cases of brucellosis without spondylitis and 187 cases of brucellar spondylitis.Multivariate analysis showed that age,time from onset to diagnosis,low back pain,and erythrocyte sedimentation rate were independent risk factors for brucellar spondylitis(P<0.05).Of the 154 cases of brucellar spondylitis with known outcomes,121 cases showed good prognosis and 33 cases had poor prognosis.COX regression analysis showed that the time from onset to diagnosis,diabetes mellitus,paravertebral abscess,and neurological impairment were independent risk factors for poor prognosis in patients with brucellar spondylitis(P<0.05).Conclusions Old age,prolonged time from onset to diagnosis,low back pain,and increased erythrocyte sedimentation rate are independent risk factors for spondylitis in patients with brucellosis.Prolonged time from onset to diagnosis,diabetes mellitus,paravertebral abscess,and neurological impairment are independent risk factors for poor prognosis of brucellar spondylitis.
5.Application value of an aMAP score in predicting the occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B receiving antiviral therapy
Yifan GAO ; Zhenzhong LIU ; Luyuan MA ; Yuexia LIU ; Caiyan ZHAO
Chinese Journal of Hepatology 2025;33(4):359-365
Objective:To evaluate the predictive value of an aMAP score for the occurrence risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) receiving antiviral therapy.Methods:The medical records of 508 CHB patients who started receiving antiviral treatment in the Third Hospital of Hebei Medical University and the Fifth Hospital of Shijiazhuang from January 2001 to November 2021 were retrospectively analyzed. They were divided into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups according to the aMAP, AASL-HCC, PAGE-B, mPAGE-B, and CAMD scoring criteria. At the end of follow-up, they were divided into HCC (33 cases) and non-HCC group (475 cases) according to whether HCC occurred. The occurrence risk factors for HCC were analyzed by univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis. The cumulative incidence of HCC at different time points was estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method and compared by the log-rank method. The HCC prediction performance of the aMAP score was evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and compared with other scores. The Mann-Whitney U test, or Fisher test, was used to compare the non-normally distributed quantitative data between groups. The χ2 test was used to compare the count data between groups. Results:A total of 33 cases (6.5%) developed HCC during the median follow-up period of 8.7 (6.8-8.9) years. Multivariate analysis showed that age>50 years ( HR=2.804, 95% CI 1.332-5.902; P=0.007) and liver cirrhosis ( HR=11.808, 95% CI 4.360-31.976; P<0.001) were independent risk factors for HCC occurrence. The cumulative incidence of HCC defined by the aMAP score at 3 and 5 years was significantly lower in the low-risk group (0, 0) than that in the intermediate-risk group (4.4%, 5.4%) and the high-risk group (10.8%, 18.5%), P<0.001. The aMAP score performed similarly to the AASL-HCC score, mPAGE-B score, and CAMD score [area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.863, 0.900, 0.851, and 0.886, respectively], with P>0.05 in terms of the 3-year HCC prediction performance; and was equally superior with the PAGE-B score (AUC was 0.732), with P<0.05. The aMAP score was not worse than the AASL-HCC score and CAMD score (AUC was 0.890, 0.894, and 0.882, respectively), with P>0.05 in terms of the 5-year HCC prediction performance; however, it was significantly superior to the PAGE-B score and mPAGE-B score (AUC was 0.795 and 0.875, respectively), with P<0.05. In addition, the AUC of the aMAP score for predicting HCC occurrence at baseline, 1 year, 2 years, and 3 years of antiviral treatment was>0.9. Conclusions:The aMAP score can accurately assess the risk of HCC in CHB patients receiving antiviral therapy.
6.Evaluation of the short-term prognosis of patients with HBV-related acute-on-chronic liver failure by combining ferritin with COSSH-ACLF II score
Yuexia LIU ; Ziyue LI ; Luyuan MA ; Yifan GAO ; Ya WANG ; Caiyan ZHAO
Chinese Journal of Hepatology 2025;33(5):456-462
Objective:To explore the predictive value of ferritin combined with the COSSH-ACLF Ⅱ score for the prognosis of patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF).Methods:The clinical data of 419 cases with HBV-ACLF hospitalized at the Third Hospital of Hebei Medical University were retrospectively analyzed between January 1, 2013 and September 30, 2022, and were divided into the death ( n=127) and survival group ( n=292) according to the survival status of 28 days of follow-up. The Mann-Whitney U test was used to compare confirmation of non-normally distributed continuous data between two groups. The chi-square test was used for the comparison of numerical data between the two groups. Binary logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the independent risk factors affecting the prognosis of HBV-ACLF patients. The predictive value of ferritin combined with the COSSH-ACLF Ⅱ score on the prognosis of HBV-ACLF was evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve) and area under the curve (AUC), net reclassification index (NRI), and comprehensive discriminant improvement index (IDI). Results:There were statistically significant differences in age, neutrophil count (NEUT), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), total bilirubin (TBil), serum creatinine (Scr), serum urea, prothrombin time (PT), prothrombin activity (PTA), international normalized ratio (INR), serum ferritin (SF), hepatic encephalopathy, and COSSH-ACLF Ⅱ scores between the two groups ( P<0.05). Ferritin ( OR=1.001, 95% CI:1.001-1.002, P<0.001) and COSSH-ACLF Ⅱ score ( OR=2.898, 95% CI:1.560-5.384, P<0.001) were independent factors for predicting short-term prognosis for patients with HBV-ACLF. Ferritin combined with COSSH-ACLF II score had a higher prognostic predictive value than ferritin (AUC=0.697, 95% CI: 0.651-0.741) and COSSH-ACLF II score (AUC=0.819, 95% CI: 0.779-0.855) for patients with HBV-ACLF (AUC=0.857, 95% CI: 0.819-0.889), with a statistically significant difference ( Z=6.287 and 2.666, respectively, P <0.05). The predictive effect was significantly improved following the addition of ferritin to the COSSH-ACLF Ⅱ score ( P<0.001), and the NRI and IDI were both >0 (NRI=0.144, 95% CI: 0.064-0.225; IDI=0.080, 95% CI: 0.052-0.108). Conclusion:Ferritin and COSSH-ACLF Ⅱ scores are independent factors that can predict short-term prognosis for patients with HBV-ACLF, and combing both has a higher predictive value.
7.Monitoring analysis and model prediction of HFMD in Liangqing District,Nanning City from 2012 to 2023
Shu WEI ; Fengyi WANG ; Zhenbo HUANG ; Renyang ZHAO ; Caiyan WU ; Chunli LIU ; Junjun JIANG
China Modern Doctor 2025;63(20):40-43
Objective To analyze the epidemiological and etiological characteristics of hand,foot and mouth disease(HFMD)in Nanning City,Liangqing District from 2012 to 2023.Methods Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to describe the three distribution characteristics of HFMD,and to predict the incidence trend of HFMD.Results From 2012 to 2023,Liangqing District of Nanning City reported a total of 19 715 cases of HFMD.The incidence rates varied significantly across different years,with statistically significant differences(P<0.01).The urban area reported the highest number of cases.The disease primarily occurred from April to October,with the highest incidence among children aged 6 months to 5 years,mainly among children in daycare and preschools.From 2012 to 2023,a total of 588 cases were diagnosed through laboratory tests,with the highest detection rate of other enteroviruses,and a relatively lower detection rate of EV71.Predictions indicate that the incidence of HFMD in Liangqing District of Nanning City will decrease in 2025 compared to 2023.Conclusion Incidence of HFMD in Liangqing District,Nanning is high,especially among children aged 6 months to 5 years.It is suggested to strengthen the epidemic surveillance,continue to carry out pathogen surveillance.
8.Longitudinal study of the quality of life and its influencing factors after PCI in patients with acute coronary syndrome
Journal of Xi'an Jiaotong University(Medical Sciences) 2025;46(3):419-425
Objective To investigate the quality of life of acute coronary syndrome patients(ACS)preoperatively to 6 months postoperatively percutaneous coronary intervention(PCI)and analyze its changing trend and influencing factors so as to provide reference for the improvement of ACS patients after PCI and direct for patient health management.Methods The patients with ACS were investigated for their sociodemographic characteristics,disease data,behavior and lifestyle and quality of life with the Seattle Angina Scale(SAQ)of PCI before PCI,1 month,3 months and 6 months after the surgery by means of medical records,face-to-face or telephone follow-up.Results A total of 235 ACS patients were surveyed before PCI,and 213(90.6%)of them who were successfully followed up to 6 months after PCI were included in this study,with a mean age of(62.67±9.18)years,and 76.1%being male.The results of the generalized estimation equation analysis showed that all the scores of the five dimensions of SAQ before PCI to 6 months after surgery,i.e.,physical limitation(Wald x2=83.118,P<0.001),angina stabilizaton stability(Wald x2=289.369,P<0.001),angina frequency(Wald x2=219.458,P<0.001),treatment satisfaction(Wald x2=159.055,P<0.001),and disease perception(Wald x2=130.839,P<0.001)increased overall(all P<0.001).However,the scores of physical limitation,angina stability and disease perception were only moderate at 6 months after surgery.The results of generalized linear model analysis showed that the factors affecting the quality of life before PCI to 6 months after PCI were gender,educational level,type of ACS,time to diagnosis,in-stent restenosis(ISR),tobacco smoking,and alcohol drinking.Conclusion The quality of life of the ACS patients gradually improved at 6 months after PCI,but the improvement effect of physical activity,angina stability and cognitive level was not ideal.Being female,low-level education,unstable angina,onset to diagnosis time 6 months or longer,occurrence of ISR,and postoperative tobacco smoking and alcohol drinking made patients have relatively low quality of life;therefore,more attention and guidance should be given to this group of population.
9.Profiling of risk factors for and prognosis of brucellar spondylitis
Tongtong SHEN ; Jing KUANG ; Yiran YAN ; Shuangqin TENG ; Wei WANG ; Yadong WANG ; Caiyan ZHAO
Chinese Journal of Infection and Chemotherapy 2025;25(4):376-383
Objective This study aimed to examine the risk factors and prognostic factors of brucellar spondylitis for early prevention and treatment of the disease,and improving the outcomes of patients.Methods A retrospective case-control study was conducted on the patients with brucellosis who were hospitalized in the Third Hospital of Hebei Medical University from June 2020 to June 2022.Patients were assigned to brucellosis without spondylitis group or brucellar spondylitis group according to the presence of spondylitis.The patients in brucellar spondylitis group were followed for 1 year.Then they were stratified into a subgroup of good or poor prognosis according to clinical outcomes.The dataset for the demographic and clinical variables of patients were analyzed using SPSS 26.0 software.Results A total of 300 patients with brucellosis were enrolled,including 113 cases of brucellosis without spondylitis and 187 cases of brucellar spondylitis.Multivariate analysis showed that age,time from onset to diagnosis,low back pain,and erythrocyte sedimentation rate were independent risk factors for brucellar spondylitis(P<0.05).Of the 154 cases of brucellar spondylitis with known outcomes,121 cases showed good prognosis and 33 cases had poor prognosis.COX regression analysis showed that the time from onset to diagnosis,diabetes mellitus,paravertebral abscess,and neurological impairment were independent risk factors for poor prognosis in patients with brucellar spondylitis(P<0.05).Conclusions Old age,prolonged time from onset to diagnosis,low back pain,and increased erythrocyte sedimentation rate are independent risk factors for spondylitis in patients with brucellosis.Prolonged time from onset to diagnosis,diabetes mellitus,paravertebral abscess,and neurological impairment are independent risk factors for poor prognosis of brucellar spondylitis.
10.Monitoring analysis and model prediction of HFMD in Liangqing District,Nanning City from 2012 to 2023
Shu WEI ; Fengyi WANG ; Zhenbo HUANG ; Renyang ZHAO ; Caiyan WU ; Chunli LIU ; Junjun JIANG
China Modern Doctor 2025;63(20):40-43
Objective To analyze the epidemiological and etiological characteristics of hand,foot and mouth disease(HFMD)in Nanning City,Liangqing District from 2012 to 2023.Methods Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to describe the three distribution characteristics of HFMD,and to predict the incidence trend of HFMD.Results From 2012 to 2023,Liangqing District of Nanning City reported a total of 19 715 cases of HFMD.The incidence rates varied significantly across different years,with statistically significant differences(P<0.01).The urban area reported the highest number of cases.The disease primarily occurred from April to October,with the highest incidence among children aged 6 months to 5 years,mainly among children in daycare and preschools.From 2012 to 2023,a total of 588 cases were diagnosed through laboratory tests,with the highest detection rate of other enteroviruses,and a relatively lower detection rate of EV71.Predictions indicate that the incidence of HFMD in Liangqing District of Nanning City will decrease in 2025 compared to 2023.Conclusion Incidence of HFMD in Liangqing District,Nanning is high,especially among children aged 6 months to 5 years.It is suggested to strengthen the epidemic surveillance,continue to carry out pathogen surveillance.

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