1.A prediction model for stroke risk among middle-aged and elderly populations
CHU Chu ; XU Hong ; CAI Bo ; HAN Yingying ; MU Haixiang ; ZHENG Huiyan ; LIN Ling
Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;37(7):649-653
Objective:
To create a prediction model for stroke risk among middle-aged and elderly populations, so as to provide a basis for early identification of high-risk population for stroke.
Methods:
From October to December 2023, residents aged ≥45 years in Chongchuan District, Nantong City, Jiangsu Province were selected using a multi-stage stratified random sampling method. The demographic information, life behavior, and chronic disease data were collected through a questionnaire survey. The standardized prevalence of stroke was calculated using data from the seventh National Population Census. The subjects were randomly divided into the training set and the internal validation set according to the ratio of 8∶2. The basic demographic information, life behavior, and chronic diseases of residents aged ≥45 years in Rugao City were collected from July to August 2023 as the external validation set. Predictive factors were selected using multivariable logistic regression model, and a nomogram for stroke among residents aged ≥45 years was established. The prediction effect was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC), calibration curve, and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test.
Results:
A total of 6 290 residents aged ≥45 years were included, including 2 975 males (47.30%) and 3 315 females (52.70%). The average age was (61.90±10.20) years. The prevalence of stroke was 3.80%, and the standardized prevalence was 3.36%. The multivariable logistic regression showed that age, smoking, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia were predictors of stroke risk among residents aged ≥45 years, and the prediction model was ln[p/(1-p)]=-4.619+0.046×age+0.383×smoking+0.887×hypertension+0.678×hyperlipidemia. The AUC values of the training set, internal validation set, and external validation set were 0.748, 0.755, and 0.738, respectively. The consistency indexes were 0.748, 0.755, and 0.738, respectively. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test showed a good fitting effect (P>0.05).
Conclusion
The prediction model based on age, smoking, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia has good discrimination and calibration, and can be used to predict the risk of stroke among middle-aged and elderly populations aged ≥45 years.
2.Standard for the management of hyperkalemia—whole-process management mode of multi- department cooperation
Zhiming YE ; Jianfang CAI ; Wei CHEN ; Hong CHENG ; Qiang HE ; Rongshan LI ; Xiangmin LI ; Xinxue LIAO ; Zhiguo MAO ; Huijuan MAO ; Ning TAN ; Gang XU ; Hong ZHAN ; Hao ZHANG ; Jian ZHANG ; Xueqing YU
Chinese Journal of Nephrology 2024;40(3):245-254
Hyperkalemia is one of the common ion metabolism disorders in clinical practice. Hyperkalemia is defined as serum potassium higher than 5.0 mmol/L according to the guidelines at home and abroad. Acute severe hyperkalemia can cause serious consequences, such as flaccid paralysis, fatal arrhythmia, and even cardiac arrest. The use of renin-angiotensin- aldosterone system inhibitors, β-blockers and diuretics, low-sodium and high-potassium diets, and the presence of related comorbidities increase the occurrence of hyperkalemia. Hyperkalemia risk exist in all clinical departments, but there is a lack of a standardization in the management of multi- department cooperation in hospital. Therefore, a number of domestic nephrology and cardiology department experts have discussed a management model for multi-department cooperation in hyperkalemia, formulating the management standard on hospital evaluation, early warning, diagnosis and treatment, and process. This can promote each department to more effectively participate in nosocomial hyperkalemia diagnosis and treatment, as well as the long-term management of chronic hyperkalemia, improving the quality of hyperkalemia management in hospital.
3.Design, synthesis and antidepressant activity of novel genipin derivatives
Hong-yan CHENG ; Dan-hui WANG ; Wen-jie ZHAO ; Tian-cheng WANG ; Wen-xue XU ; Cai-yun ZHANG ; Ya-nan ZHAO ; Yan-chun ZHANG
Acta Pharmaceutica Sinica 2024;59(9):2564-2573
The pathogenesis of depression is complex, and some existing monoamine antidepressants have problems such as drug resistance or off-target failure. Traditional Chinese medicine has the characteristics of "multi-component and multi-target", and has been used in the treatment of depression in clinical practice. Yueju pill is effective in the treatment of depression. Geniposide and ligustrazine, the active ingredients of Gardeniae fructus and Ligusticum sinense 'Chuanxiong', play a key role in the treatment of depression. In this study, based on the neuroprotective activity of genipin and the rapid antidepressant activity of tetramethylpyrazine, a series of novel genipin derivatives were designed and synthesized through pharmacophore assembly principle, and their neuroprotective activity and antidepressant effect were investigated. The results showed that the novel genipin derivatives had well neuroprotective activity on the glutamate-induced HT-22 cell model, with compounds W-1 and W-3 showing better protective activity. In behavioral despair depression (BDD) model mice, compound W-3 was found to have better antidepressant activity than W-1 in tail suspension test and forced swimming test. Further study on the behavior of chronic unpredictable mild stress (CUMS) model mice showed that W-3 could significantly improve the depression-like behavior of model mice. All animal experiments were approved by the Experimental Animal Ethics Committee of Anhui University of Chinese Medicine (approval number: AHUCM-mouse-2022027). The effects of the preferred compound W-3 on protein kinase A (PKA), cAMP response element binding protein (CREB), brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF), 5-hydroxytryptamine 1A (5-HT1A) receptor,
4.The neuroprotective effect of W1302 on acute ischemic stroke in rats
Shao-feng XU ; Jiang LI ; Jie CAI ; Nan FENG ; Mi ZHANG ; Ling WANG ; Wei-ping WANG ; Hai-hong HUANG ; Yan WANG ; Xiao-liang WANG
Acta Pharmaceutica Sinica 2024;59(9):2539-2544
2-(4-Methylthiazol-5-yl) ethyl nitrate hydrochloride (W1302) is a nitro containing derivative of clomethiazole, which is a novel neuroprotective agent with both carbon monoxide (NO) donor and weak
5.Risk assessment of cadmium exposure of Shanghai residents based on different dietary exposure assessment methods
Hua CAI ; Baozhang LUO ; Luxin QIN ; Danping QIU ; Jingjin YANG ; Xia SONG ; Biyao XU ; Zhenni ZHU ; Hong LIU ; Chunfeng WU
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine 2024;36(3):224-229
ObjectiveTo conduct comprehensive assessment of internal and external cadmium exposure and health risks for Shanghai residents. MethodsCadmium levels in food samples were calculated by employing two dietary exposure assessment methods, total diet study (TDS) and food frequency questionnaire (FFQ), to estimate the daily dietary cadmium exposure of Shanghai residents. The provisional tolerable monthly intake (PTMI) of cadmium set by joint food and agriculture organization/WHO expert committee on food additives (JECFA) was applied to evaluate the health risk. Differences in dietary and urinary cadmium were compared by rank-sum test among different regions, age, gender, smoking status, and BMI groups, and the association between internal and external cadmium exposure was investigated by correlation analysis. ResultsThe mean value of urinary cadmium for 1 300 respondents was 0.542 μg·L-1. Urinary cadmium was higher in the population in central urban and urban-rural fringe areas than in the suburban area, higher in the older age group than in the younger age group, and higher in the smoking group than in the non-smoking group (all P<0.01). The two assessment methods showed that the mean values of daily dietary cadmium exposure for Shanghai residents were 0.306 and 0.090 μg·kg-1, with 3.69% and 0.85% of Shanghai residents exceeding the PTMI, respectively. Correlation analyses showed that dietary exposure to cadmium based on the FFQ method was positively correlated with the urinary cadmium level when smoking status, age, gender, and BMI were adjusted. ConclusionDietary exposure to cadmium of Shanghai residents is mainly derived from vegetables, aquatic products, cereals and potatoes, and is overall at a low-risk level. Dietary exposure assessment based on FFQ and risk monitoring data can effectively estimate long-term cadmium exposure.
6. MW-9, a chalcones derivative bearing heterocyclic moieties, ameliorates ulcerative colitis via regulating MAPK signaling pathway
Zhao WU ; Nan-Ting ZOU ; Chun-Fei ZHANG ; Hao-Hong ZHANG ; Qing-Yan MO ; Ze-Wei MAO ; Chun-Ping WAN ; Ming-Qian JU ; Chun-Ping WAN ; Xing-Cai XU
Chinese Pharmacological Bulletin 2024;40(3):514-520
Aim To investigate the therapeutic effect of the MW-9 on ulcerative colitis(UC)and reveal the underlying mechanism, so as to provide a scientific guidance for the MW-9 treatment of UC. Methods The model of lipopolysaccharide(LPS)-stimulated RAW264.7 macrophage cells was established. The effect of MW-9 on RAW264.7 cells viability was detected by MTT assay. The levels of nitric oxide(NO)in RAW264.7 macrophages were measured by Griess assay. Cell supernatants and serum levels of inflammatory cytokines containing IL-6, TNF-α and IL-1β were determined by ELISA kits. Dextran sulfate sodium(DSS)-induced UC model in mice was established and body weight of mice in each group was measured. The histopathological damage degree of colonic tissue was assessed by HE staining. The protein expression of p-p38, p-ERK1/2 and p-JNK was detected by Western blot. Results MW-9 intervention significantly inhibited NO release in RAW264.7 macrophages with IC50 of 20.47 mg·L-1 and decreased the overproduction of inflammatory factors IL-6, IL-1β and TNF-α(P<0.05). MW-9 had no cytotoxicity at the concentrations below 6 mg·L-1. After MW-9 treatment, mouse body weight was gradually reduced, and the serum IL-6, IL-1β and TNF-α levels were significantly down-regulated. Compared with the model group, MW-9 significantly decreased the expression of p-p38 and p-ERK1/2 protein. Conclusions MW-9 has significant anti-inflammatory activities both in vitro and in vivo, and its underlying mechanism for the treatment of UC may be associated with the inhibition of MAPK signaling pathway.
7.Trends and age-period-cohort analysis of leukemia incidence in Qidong from 1972 to 2021
Jian ZHU ; Yongsheng CHEN ; Jun WANG ; Yonghui ZHANG ; Lulu DING ; Yuanyou XU ; Yongfeng YAN ; Jianguo CHEN ; Hong CAI
Chinese Journal of Oncology 2024;46(10):961-967
Objective:To describe the epidemiological characteristics and trends of leukemia incidence in Qidong between 1972 and 2021, and provide guidelines for prevention and control measures and strategies.Methods:The cancer registry data was collected and analyzed on leukemia incidence during 1972—2021 in Qidong by sex, age and time. Crude incidence rate (CR), China age-standardized rate (ASRC), world age-standardized rate (ASRW), and average annual change percentage (AAPC) was calculated by Joinpoint software. Age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to analyze the influence of age, period and birth cohort on the changes in the incidence trend of leukemia patients.Results:From 1972 to 2021, there were 2 948 patients with leukemia in Qidong, accounting for 2.00% of all cancer new cases, CR of leukemia was 5.26/10 5, ASRC was 4.34/10 5, ASRW was 4.35/10 5. The truncated incidence of 35—64 years old was 5.29/10 5, the cumulative incidence rate between the ages of 0 and 74 years old was 0.40%, the cumulative risk was 0.40%. There were 1 608 male patients, the CR, ASRC, and the ASRW were 5.81/10 5, 4.88/10 5 and 4.85/10 5. The number of female patients were 1 340, and the CR, ASRC, and the ASRW were 4.71/10 5, 3.86/10 5 and 3.91/10 5, respectively. Temporal trends indicated significant upward trends in ASRC among both gender, males and females with AAPC values of 1.41% ( P<0.001), 1.15% ( P<0.001), and 1.73% ( P<0.001), respectively. The results of the APC model showed that the average net drift value of leukemia incidence in all age groups was 1.57% (95% CI, 1.24%-1.89%), and the highest value of local drift was 3.20% (95% CI, 1.63%-4.78%) in the 80~ years old group. The incidence of leukemia increased with age. With the passage of time, the risk of leukemia incidence increased gradually compared with the rate ratio of leukemia incidence (risk ratio [ RR], 1.00) in 1992—1996, the RR of leukemia incidence increased from 0.70 during 1972—1976 to 1.57 during 2017—2021. The later the cohort was born, the greater the risk of leukemia incidence compared with the relative risk of leukemia incidence ( RR, 1.00) in 1952—1956 cohort, the RR of leukemia incidence increased from 0.24 in the 1892—1896 cohort to 2.73 in the 2017—2021 cohort. Conclusions:The incidence of the leukemia has presented a rising trend in the past fifty years. Leukemia incidence increased with age, and the period and cohort effects on the risk of incidence increase. Further research is needed to investigate the risk factors related to leukemia.
8.Trends and age-period-cohort analysis of leukemia incidence in Qidong from 1972 to 2021
Jian ZHU ; Yongsheng CHEN ; Jun WANG ; Yonghui ZHANG ; Lulu DING ; Yuanyou XU ; Yongfeng YAN ; Jianguo CHEN ; Hong CAI
Chinese Journal of Oncology 2024;46(10):961-967
Objective:To describe the epidemiological characteristics and trends of leukemia incidence in Qidong between 1972 and 2021, and provide guidelines for prevention and control measures and strategies.Methods:The cancer registry data was collected and analyzed on leukemia incidence during 1972—2021 in Qidong by sex, age and time. Crude incidence rate (CR), China age-standardized rate (ASRC), world age-standardized rate (ASRW), and average annual change percentage (AAPC) was calculated by Joinpoint software. Age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to analyze the influence of age, period and birth cohort on the changes in the incidence trend of leukemia patients.Results:From 1972 to 2021, there were 2 948 patients with leukemia in Qidong, accounting for 2.00% of all cancer new cases, CR of leukemia was 5.26/10 5, ASRC was 4.34/10 5, ASRW was 4.35/10 5. The truncated incidence of 35—64 years old was 5.29/10 5, the cumulative incidence rate between the ages of 0 and 74 years old was 0.40%, the cumulative risk was 0.40%. There were 1 608 male patients, the CR, ASRC, and the ASRW were 5.81/10 5, 4.88/10 5 and 4.85/10 5. The number of female patients were 1 340, and the CR, ASRC, and the ASRW were 4.71/10 5, 3.86/10 5 and 3.91/10 5, respectively. Temporal trends indicated significant upward trends in ASRC among both gender, males and females with AAPC values of 1.41% ( P<0.001), 1.15% ( P<0.001), and 1.73% ( P<0.001), respectively. The results of the APC model showed that the average net drift value of leukemia incidence in all age groups was 1.57% (95% CI, 1.24%-1.89%), and the highest value of local drift was 3.20% (95% CI, 1.63%-4.78%) in the 80~ years old group. The incidence of leukemia increased with age. With the passage of time, the risk of leukemia incidence increased gradually compared with the rate ratio of leukemia incidence (risk ratio [ RR], 1.00) in 1992—1996, the RR of leukemia incidence increased from 0.70 during 1972—1976 to 1.57 during 2017—2021. The later the cohort was born, the greater the risk of leukemia incidence compared with the relative risk of leukemia incidence ( RR, 1.00) in 1952—1956 cohort, the RR of leukemia incidence increased from 0.24 in the 1892—1896 cohort to 2.73 in the 2017—2021 cohort. Conclusions:The incidence of the leukemia has presented a rising trend in the past fifty years. Leukemia incidence increased with age, and the period and cohort effects on the risk of incidence increase. Further research is needed to investigate the risk factors related to leukemia.
9.Construction and validation of a nomogram model of early related factors for hepatic insufficiency after hemihepatectomy
Bolun ZHANG ; Xinyu BI ; Hong ZHAO ; Jianping CHANG ; Xiaoshi ZHANG ; Bowen XU ; Jianjun ZHAO ; Jianguo ZHOU ; Jianqiang CAI
Chinese Journal of Surgery 2024;62(1):49-56
Objectives:To investigate the early related factors for hepatic insufficiency after hemihepatectomy and to construct and validate a nomogram model.Methods:This is a retrospective cohort study.There were 207 patients with liver tumor who underwent hemihepatectomy in the Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences from October 2016 to December 2022. Using the random number method, patients were randomly divided into a model group( n=166) and a validation group( n=41) according to an 4∶1 ratio. There were 118 males and 48 females in the modeling group,with an age ( M(IQR)) of 59.0(13.3) years (range: 22.0 to 81.0 years),42 patients in the group with postoperative liver insufficiency and 124 patients in the group without postoperative liver insufficiency. There were 32 males and 9 females in the validation group, with an age of 54.0(19.0) years (range: 25.0 to 81.0 years). The first results of the peripheral blood test of patients within 24 hours after surgery were collected,and the independent related factors for incomplete postoperative liver function were determined by multivariate Logistic regression analysis,and related factors of postoperative incomplete liver function were screened by best subset selection. A nomogram model of the related factors of postoperative hepatic insufficiency after hemihepatectomy was constructed using R software,validated by internal and external validation of the model. Results:Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that elevated D-dimer level and decreased antithrombin Ⅲ (AT-Ⅲ) activity within 24 hours after surgery were independent related factors for the development of postoperative hepatic insufficiency in hemihepatectomized patients. The results of the best subset selection showed that ALT, D-dimer, and AT-Ⅲ activity levels within 24 hours postoperatively were the most relevant factors for postoperative hepatic insufficiency. The R software was applied to build a nomogram prediction model based on the above three indicators in the model set, and the receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve of the model showed an area under the curve of 0.803 and the calibration curve showed a U-index of -0.012 for the model( P=0.977). The results of the clinical decision analysis and the clinical impact curve indicated that the model had good clinical utility. The internal validation results of the Bootstrap method suggested that the model had reasonable consistency. The area under the ROC curve of the validation group model was 0.806, suggesting that the model had a good generalization prediction ability. Conclusions:The levels of ALT, D-dimer, and AT-Ⅲ activity within 24 hours after hemihepatectomy are valuable indicators for predicting liver insufficiency after hemihepatectomy. The nomogram model is reliable and can be used as an indicator for close postoperative monitoring.
10.Construction and validation of a nomogram model of early related factors for hepatic insufficiency after hemihepatectomy
Bolun ZHANG ; Xinyu BI ; Hong ZHAO ; Jianping CHANG ; Xiaoshi ZHANG ; Bowen XU ; Jianjun ZHAO ; Jianguo ZHOU ; Jianqiang CAI
Chinese Journal of Surgery 2024;62(1):49-56
Objectives:To investigate the early related factors for hepatic insufficiency after hemihepatectomy and to construct and validate a nomogram model.Methods:This is a retrospective cohort study.There were 207 patients with liver tumor who underwent hemihepatectomy in the Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences from October 2016 to December 2022. Using the random number method, patients were randomly divided into a model group( n=166) and a validation group( n=41) according to an 4∶1 ratio. There were 118 males and 48 females in the modeling group,with an age ( M(IQR)) of 59.0(13.3) years (range: 22.0 to 81.0 years),42 patients in the group with postoperative liver insufficiency and 124 patients in the group without postoperative liver insufficiency. There were 32 males and 9 females in the validation group, with an age of 54.0(19.0) years (range: 25.0 to 81.0 years). The first results of the peripheral blood test of patients within 24 hours after surgery were collected,and the independent related factors for incomplete postoperative liver function were determined by multivariate Logistic regression analysis,and related factors of postoperative incomplete liver function were screened by best subset selection. A nomogram model of the related factors of postoperative hepatic insufficiency after hemihepatectomy was constructed using R software,validated by internal and external validation of the model. Results:Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that elevated D-dimer level and decreased antithrombin Ⅲ (AT-Ⅲ) activity within 24 hours after surgery were independent related factors for the development of postoperative hepatic insufficiency in hemihepatectomized patients. The results of the best subset selection showed that ALT, D-dimer, and AT-Ⅲ activity levels within 24 hours postoperatively were the most relevant factors for postoperative hepatic insufficiency. The R software was applied to build a nomogram prediction model based on the above three indicators in the model set, and the receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve of the model showed an area under the curve of 0.803 and the calibration curve showed a U-index of -0.012 for the model( P=0.977). The results of the clinical decision analysis and the clinical impact curve indicated that the model had good clinical utility. The internal validation results of the Bootstrap method suggested that the model had reasonable consistency. The area under the ROC curve of the validation group model was 0.806, suggesting that the model had a good generalization prediction ability. Conclusions:The levels of ALT, D-dimer, and AT-Ⅲ activity within 24 hours after hemihepatectomy are valuable indicators for predicting liver insufficiency after hemihepatectomy. The nomogram model is reliable and can be used as an indicator for close postoperative monitoring.


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