1.Specific effect of inserted sham acupuncture and its impact on the estimation of acupuncture treatment effect in randomized controlled trials: A systematic survey.
Xiao-Chao LUO ; Jia-Li LIU ; Ming-Hong YAO ; Ye-Meng CHEN ; Arthur Yin FAN ; Fan-Rong LIANG ; Ji-Ping ZHAO ; Ling ZHAO ; Xu ZHOU ; Xiao-Ying ZHONG ; Jia-Hui YANG ; Bo LI ; Ying ZHANG ; Xin SUN ; Ling LI
Journal of Integrative Medicine 2025;23(6):630-640
BACKGROUND:
The use of inserted sham acupuncture as a placebo in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) is controversial, because it may produce specific effects that cause an underestimation of the effect of acupuncture treatment.
OBJECTIVE:
This systematic survey investigates the magnitude of insert-specific effects of sham acupuncture and whether they affect the estimation of acupuncture treatment effects.
SEARCH STRATEGY:
PubMed, Embase and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials were searched to identify acupuncture RCTs from their inception until December 2022.
INCLUSION CRITERIA:
RCTs that evaluated the effects of acupuncture compared to sham acupuncture and no treatment.
DATA EXTRACTION AND ANALYSIS:
The total effect measured for an acupuncture treatment group in RCTs were divided into three components, including the natural history and/or regression to the mean effect (controlled for no-treatment group), the placebo effect, and the specific effect of acupuncture. The first two constituted the contextual effect of acupuncture, which is mimicked by a sham acupuncture treatment group. The proportion of acupuncture total effect size was considered to be 1. The proportion of natural history and/or regression to the mean effect (PNE) and proportional contextual effect (PCE) of included RCTs were pooled using meta-analyses with a random-effect model. The proportion of acupuncture placebo effect was the difference between PCE and PNE in RCTs with non-inserted sham acupuncture. The proportion of insert-specific effect of sham acupuncture (PIES) was obtained by subtracting the proportion of acupuncture placebo effect and PNE from PCE in RCTs with inserted sham acupuncture. The impact of PIES on the estimation of acupuncture's treatment effect was evaluated by quantifying the percentage of RCTs that the effect of outcome changed from no statistical difference to statistical difference after removing PIES in the included studies, and the impact of PIES was externally validated in other acupuncture RCTs with an inserted sham acupuncture group that were not used to calculate PIES.
RESULTS:
This analysis included 32 studies with 5492 patients. The overall PNE was 0.335 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.255-0.415) and the PCE of acupuncture was 0.639 (95% CI, 0.567-0.710) of acupuncture's total effect. The proportional contribution of the placebo effect to acupuncture's total effect was 0.191, and the PIES was 0.189. When we modeled the exclusion of the insert-specific effect of sham acupuncture, the acupuncture treatment effect changed from no difference to a significant difference in 45.45% of the included RCTs, and in 40.91% of the external validated RCTs.
CONCLUSION
The insert-specific effect of sham acupuncture in RCTs represents 18.90% of acupuncture's total effect and significantly affects the evaluation of the acupuncture treatment effect. More than 40% of RCTs that used inserted sham acupuncture would draw different conclusions if the PIES had been controlled for. Considering the impact of the insert-specific effect of sham acupuncture, caution should be taken when using inserted sham acupuncture placebos in RCTs. Please cite this article as: Luo XC, Liu JL, Yao MH, Chen YM, Fan AY, Liang FR, Zhao JP, Zhao L, Zhou X, Zhong XY, Yang JH, Li B, Zhang Y, Sun X, Li L. Specific effect of inserted sham acupuncture and its impact on the estimation of acupuncture treatment effect in randomized controlled trials: A systematic survey. J Integr Med. 2025; 23(6):630-640.
Acupuncture Therapy/methods*
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Humans
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Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic
;
Placebo Effect
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Placebos
;
Treatment Outcome
2.Observation on therapeutic effect of self-made auxiliary reduction device combined with sinus tarsi approach in treatment of Sanders type Ⅱ to Ⅳ calcaneal fractures
Yu ZHOU ; Da-gang TANG ; Wei PENG ; Xiao-bo HU ; Zhi CHEN ; Peng LONG ; Zhi-ping KUANG ; Chuan-zhi ZHANG
Journal of Regional Anatomy and Operative Surgery 2025;34(7):604-609
Objective To observe the efficacy of self-made auxiliary reduction device combined with sinus tarsi approach(STA)in the treatment of Sanders type Ⅱ to Ⅳ calcaneal fractures.Methods A total of 40 patients with Sanders type Ⅱ to Ⅳ calcaneal fractures admitted to our hospital from January to June 2023 were selected and divided into the control group and the observation group by the random number table method,with 20 cases in each group.Patients in the control group underwent surgical treatment with the heel extensile lateral approach(ELA),while patients in the observation group underwent surgical treatment with the auxiliary reduction device combined with STA.The surgical-related indicators,postoperative complications and ankle-foot anatomical indicators of patients in the two groups were compared.The recovery of limb function was evaluated by the American Orthopaedic Foot and Ankle Society(AOFAS)ankle-hindfoot scale and Maryland foot function score.Results There was no statistically significant difference in the operation time,postoperative incision drying time,or duration of postoperative pain between the two groups(P>0.05).The postoperative suture removal time of the patients in the observation group was shorter than that of the control group,and the difference was statistically significant(P<0.05).The incidence of skin edge necrosis of incision and the total incidence of complications of patients in the observation group were significantly lower than those in the control group(P<0.05).The B?hler angle and Gissane angle of patients in both groups increased after surgery compared with those before surgery(P<0.05);there was no statistically significant difference in the B?hler angle or Gissane angle after surgery of patients between the two groups(P>0.05).The AOFAS score1 week after surgery of the patients in the observation group was higher than that in the control group(P<0.05),while there were no statistically significant differences in the AOFAS scores or Maryland scores of patients at other time points between the two groups(P>0.05).Conclusion The use of the auxiliary reduction device in surgical treatment with STA for Sanders type Ⅱ to Ⅳ calcaneal fractures can effectively restore the function of the foot and ankle,with short postoperative suture removal time and low incidence of postoperative complications.
3.Guideline for Adult Weight Management in China
Weiqing WANG ; Qin WAN ; Jianhua MA ; Guang WANG ; Yufan WANG ; Guixia WANG ; Yongquan SHI ; Tingjun YE ; Xiaoguang SHI ; Jian KUANG ; Bo FENG ; Xiuyan FENG ; Guang NING ; Yiming MU ; Hongyu KUANG ; Xiaoping XING ; Chunli PIAO ; Xingbo CHENG ; Zhifeng CHENG ; Yufang BI ; Yan BI ; Wenshan LYU ; Dalong ZHU ; Cuiyan ZHU ; Wei ZHU ; Fei HUA ; Fei XIANG ; Shuang YAN ; Zilin SUN ; Yadong SUN ; Liqin SUN ; Luying SUN ; Li YAN ; Yanbing LI ; Hong LI ; Shu LI ; Ling LI ; Yiming LI ; Chenzhong LI ; Hua YANG ; Jinkui YANG ; Ling YANG ; Ying YANG ; Tao YANG ; Xiao YANG ; Xinhua XIAO ; Dan WU ; Jinsong KUANG ; Lanjie HE ; Wei GU ; Jie SHEN ; Yongfeng SONG ; Qiao ZHANG ; Hong ZHANG ; Yuwei ZHANG ; Junqing ZHANG ; Xianfeng ZHANG ; Miao ZHANG ; Yifei ZHANG ; Yingli LU ; Hong CHEN ; Li CHEN ; Bing CHEN ; Shihong CHEN ; Guiyan CHEN ; Haibing CHEN ; Lei CHEN ; Yanyan CHEN ; Genben CHEN ; Yikun ZHOU ; Xianghai ZHOU ; Qiang ZHOU ; Jiaqiang ZHOU ; Hongting ZHENG ; Zhongyan SHAN ; Jiajun ZHAO ; Dong ZHAO ; Ji HU ; Jiang HU ; Xinguo HOU ; Bimin SHI ; Tianpei HONG ; Mingxia YUAN ; Weibo XIA ; Xuejiang GU ; Yong XU ; Shuguang PANG ; Tianshu GAO ; Zuhua GAO ; Xiaohui GUO ; Hongyi CAO ; Mingfeng CAO ; Xiaopei CAO ; Jing MA ; Bin LU ; Zhen LIANG ; Jun LIANG ; Min LONG ; Yongde PENG ; Jin LU ; Hongyun LU ; Yan LU ; Chunping ZENG ; Binhong WEN ; Xueyong LOU ; Qingbo GUAN ; Lin LIAO ; Xin LIAO ; Ping XIONG ; Yaoming XUE
Chinese Journal of Endocrinology and Metabolism 2025;41(11):891-907
Body weight abnormalities, including overweight, obesity, and underweight, have become a dual public health challenge in Chinese adults: overweight and obesity lead to a variety of chronic complications, while underweight increases the risks of malnutrition, sarcopenia, and organ dysfunction. To systematically address these issues, multidisciplinary experts in endocrinology, sports science, nutrition, and psychiatry from various regions have held multiple weight management seminars. Based on the latest epidemiological data and clinical evidence, they expanded the guideline to include assessment and intervention strategies for underweight, in addition to the core content of obesity management. This guideline outlines the etiological mechanisms, evaluation methods, and multidimensional management strategies for overweight and obesity, covering key areas such as diagnosis and assessment, medical nutrition therapy, exercise prescription, pharmacological intervention, and psychological support. It is intended to provide a scientific and standardized approach to weight management across the adult population, aiming to curb the rising prevalence of obesity, mitigate complications associated with abnormal body weight, and improve nutritional status and overall quality of life.
4.Guideline for the prevention of intraoperative acquired pressure injury in paraplegic patients with spinal cord injury (version 2025)
Aijun XU ; Shuixia LI ; Bo CHEN ; Mengyuan YE ; Lejiao LANG ; Ning NING ; Lin ZHANG ; Changqing LIU ; Zhonglan CHEN ; Weihu MA ; Weishi LI ; Xiaoning WANG ; Dongmei BIAN ; Jiancheng ZENG ; Xin WANG ; Yuan GAO ; Yaping CHEN ; Jiali CHEN ; Yun HAN ; Xiuting LI ; Yang ZHOU ; Xiaojing SU ; Qiong ZHANG ; Tianwen HUANG ; Ping ZHANG ; Hua LIN ; Xingling XIAO ; Ruifeng XU ; Fanghui DONG ; Bing HAN ; Luo FAN ; Yanling PEI ; Suyun LI ; Xiaoju TAN ; Rongchen GUO ; Yefang ZOU ; Xiaoyun HAN ; Junqin DING ; Yi WANG ; Shuhua DENG ; Jinli GUO ; Yinhua LIANG ; Yuan CEN ; Xiaoqin LIU ; Junru CHEN ; Haiyang YU ; Lunlan LI ; Ying REN ; Yunxia LI ; Jianli LU ; Ying YING ; Lan WEI ; Yin WANG ; Qinhong XU ; Yanqin ZHANG ; Yang LYU ; Shijun ZHANG ; Sui WENJIE ; Sanlian HU ; Shuhong YANG ; Guoqing LI ; Jingjing AN ; Baorong HE ; Leling FENG
Chinese Journal of Trauma 2025;41(6):530-541
Paraplegia caused by spinal cord injury is a serious neurological complication, for which surgery is currently the main treatment method. Due to different surgical approaches, patients are usually expected to maintain a passive prone position for a long time or switch between the supine and prone positions. Affected by multiple factors such as neurogenic sensory disorders, pathological changes in muscle tone and operative duration, the risk of intraoperative acquired pressure injury (IAPI) is significantly increased. Current clinical prevention strategies for IAPI in these patients predominantly focus on localized pressure relief during positioning, lacking systematic, standardized comprehensive prevention protocols or evidence-based guidelines. To address it, Department of Nursing, Orthopedics Branch, China International Exchange and Promotive Association for Medical and Health Care, Spinal Trauma Professional Committee, Orthopedics Branch, Chinese Medical Doctor Association, Nursing Group of Spine and Spinal Cord Professional Committee of Chinese Association of Rehabilitation Medicine organized experts in relevant fields to formulate Guideline for the prevention of intraoperative acquired pressure injury in paraplegic patients with spinal cord injury ( version 2025), based on evidence-based medical evidence and latest research results and clinical practice at home and abroad. Eleven recommendations were put forward from the aspects of preoperative risk assessment, intraoperative prevention strategies, postoperative handover and monitoring, and supportive mechanisms for IAPI prevention, aiming to standardize the prevention measures and management strategies of IAPI in paraplegic patients with spinal cord injury and accelerate the recovery of patients and improve the therapeutic effect.
5.Shexiang Tongxin Dropping Pill Improves Stable Angina Patients with Phlegm-Heat and Blood-Stasis Syndrome: A Multicenter, Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Trial.
Ying-Qiang ZHAO ; Yong-Fa XING ; Ke-Yong ZOU ; Wei-Dong JIANG ; Ting-Hai DU ; Bo CHEN ; Bao-Ping YANG ; Bai-Ming QU ; Li-Yue WANG ; Gui-Hong GONG ; Yan-Ling SUN ; Li-Qi WANG ; Gao-Feng ZHOU ; Yu-Gang DONG ; Min CHEN ; Xue-Juan ZHANG ; Tian-Lun YANG ; Min-Zhou ZHANG ; Ming-Jun ZHAO ; Yue DENG ; Chang-Jiang XIAO ; Lin WANG ; Bao-He WANG
Chinese journal of integrative medicine 2025;31(8):685-693
OBJECTIVE:
To evaluate the efficacy and safety of Shexiang Tongxin Dropping Pill (STDP) in treating stable angina patients with phlegm-heat and blood-stasis syndrome by exercise duration and metabolic equivalents.
METHODS:
This multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial enrolled stable angina patients with phlegm-heat and blood-stasis syndrome from 22 hospitals. They were randomized 1:1 to STDP (35 mg/pill, 6 pills per day) or placebo for 56 days. The primary outcome was the exercise duration and metabolic equivalents (METs) assessed by the standard Bruce exercise treadmill test after 56 days of treatment. The secondary outcomes included the total angina symptom score, Chinese medicine (CM) symptom scores, Seattle Angina Questionnaire (SAQ) scores, changes in ST-T on electrocardiogram and adverse events (AEs).
RESULTS:
This trial enrolled 309 patients, including 155 and 154 in the STDP and placebo groups, respectively. STDP significantly prolonged exercise duration with an increase of 51.0 s, compared to a decrease of 12.0 s with placebo (change rate: -11.1% vs. 3.2%, P<0.01). The increase in METs was significantly greater in the STDP group than in the placebo group (change: -0.4 vs. 0.0, change rate: -5.0% vs. 0.0%, P<0.01). The improvement of total angina symptom scores (25.0% vs. 0.0%), CM symptom scores (38.7% vs. 11.8%), reduction of nitroglycerin consumption (100.0% vs. 11.3%), and all domains of SAQ, were significantly greater with STDP than placebo (all P<0.01). The changes in Q-T intervals at 28 and 56 days from baseline were similar between the two groups (both P>0.05). Twenty-five participants (16.3%) with STDP and 16 (10.5%) with placebo experienced AEs (P=0.131), with no serious AEs observed.
CONCLUSION
STDP could improve exercise tolerance in patients with stable angina and phlegm-heat and blood stasis syndrome, with a favorable safety profile. (Registration No. ChiCTR-IPR-15006020).
Humans
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Double-Blind Method
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Drugs, Chinese Herbal/adverse effects*
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Male
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Female
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Middle Aged
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Angina, Stable/physiopathology*
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Aged
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Syndrome
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Treatment Outcome
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Placebos
;
Tablets
6.Association Between Vitamin D Status and Insulin Resistance in Adolescents: A Cross-sectional Observational Study
Xiaoyuan GUO ; Yutong WANG ; Zhibo ZHOU ; Shi CHEN ; Mei ZHANG ; Bo BAN ; Ping LI ; Xinran ZHANG ; Qiuping ZHANG ; Kai YANG ; Hongbo YANG ; Hanze DU ; Hui PAN
Medical Journal of Peking Union Medical College Hospital 2025;16(3):577-583
To investigate the correlation between vitamin D nutritional status and insulin resistance in pubertal adolescents. This cross-sectional observational study employed convenience sampling to recruit 2021-grade(8th grade) students from Jining No.7 Middle School in Shandong Province on June 5, 2023. Data collection included questionnaires, physical examinations, and imaging assessments to obtain general information, secondary sexual characteristics development, and bone age. Venous blood samples were collected to measure fasting blood glucose(FBG), fasting insulin(FINS), homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance(HOMA-IR), and 25-hydroxyvitamin D[25(OH)D] levels. Spearman correlation analysis and multivariate linear regression models were used to examine the associations between serum vitamin D levels and FBG, FINS, and HOMA-IR. The study included 168 pubertal adolescents[69 females(41.1%), 99 males(58.9%); mean age(13.27±0.46) years]. All participants had entered puberty based on sexual development assessment. Vitamin D deficiency was observed in 41 participants(24.4%), insufficiency in 109(64.9%), and sufficiency in 18(10.7%). The median HOMA-IR was 3.49(2.57, 5.14).Significant differences were found across vitamin D status groups for HOMA-IR [4.45(2.54, 6.62) Vitamin D deficiency/insufficiency is prevalent among pubertal adolescents, and serum vitamin D levels show a significant inverse association with insulin resistance. These findings suggest the potential importance of vitamin D status in metabolic health during puberty.
7.Association among seminal oxidation-reduction potential,sperm DNA fragments and semen parameters in patients with varicocele
Xiao-chuan GUAN ; Yue-xin YU ; Ning ZHANG ; Jing ZHOU ; Jia-ping YU ; Yu WANG ; Xing-chi LIU ; Bo-lun WANG
National Journal of Andrology 2025;31(7):591-596
Objective:To investigate the relationship among seminal oxidation-reduction potential(nORP),sperm DNA frag-mentation(DFI)and semen parameters in patients with varicocele.Methods:Clinical data of 522 patients treated in the reproduc-tive andrology clinic of the Northern Theater General Hospital from November 2023 to December 2023 were retrospectively analyzed,in-cluding 435 men of childbearing age and 87 men of infertile age.The patients were divided into the varicocele group(n=116)and non-varicocele group(n=406)according to clinical diagnosis.The differences of seminal plasma nORP,DFI,sperm high DNA stain ability(HDS)and semen parameters were analyzed between the two groups.The relationship among general clinical data,seminal plasma nORP,semen parameters,DFI and HDS in patients with varicocele were further analyzed.According to the severity of varico-cele,the patients were divided into three groups,including mild,moderate and severe.And the differences of seminal plasma nORP and semen parameters,DFI and HDS among all groups were analyzed.The differences of seminal plasma nORP,semen parameters,DFI and HDS were compared between the varicocele and non-varicocele groups.Results:The total sperm count,sperm concentra-tion,progressive motility sperm percentage(PR%)and normal sperm morphology rate(NSMR)in patients with varicocele were sig-nificantly lower than those in control group(P<0.05).And seminal plasma nORP,DFI and HDS in patients with varicocele were sig-nificantly higher than those in control group(P<0.05).Seminal plasma nORP in patients with varicocele was significantly negatively correlated with total sperm,sperm concentration and NSMR(P<0.05),and significantly positively correlated with DFI and HDS(P<0.05).There were significant differences in nORP,total sperm count,sperm concentration,PR%,DFI and HDS among mild,moderate and severe varicocele groups(P<0.05).Seminal plasma nORP,sperm concentration,PR%and DFI in severe group were significantly lower than those in mild and moderate groups(P<0.05).Sperm count and HDS in severe group were significantly lower than those in mild group(P<0.05).In infertile patients,seminal plasma nORP,DFI and HDS in varicocele group were significantly higher than those in control group(P<0.05).And PR%in varicocele group was significantly lower than that in control group(P<0.05).Conclusions:Seminal plasma nORP in patients with varicocele may be an important marker of oxidative stress affecting DFI and semen parameters.
8.Identification of chemical components and determination of vitexin in the raw powder of Tongluo Shenggu capsule
Gelin WU ; Ruixin FAN ; Chuling LIANG ; Leng XING ; Yongjian XIE ; Ping GONG ; Peng ZHOU ; BO LI
Journal of China Pharmaceutical University 2025;56(2):166-175
The present study employed UPLC-MS/MS to analyze and identify compounds in the raw powder of Tongluo Shenggu capsules. An HPLC method for the determination of vitexin content was established. The analysis of this drug was performed on a 30 ℃ thermostatic Acquity UPLC® BEH C18 (2.1 mm×100 mm,1.7 μm) column, with the mobile phase comprising 0.2% formic acid-methanol flowing at 0.3 mL /min in a gradient elution manner. Mass spectrometry was detected by ESI sources in both positive and negative ion modes for qualitative identification of chemical constituents. 12 flavonoid and 3 stilbenes compounds in the raw powder of Tongluo Shenggu capsules were successfully identified. Additionally, an HPLC method for the determination of vitexin content was established using a XBridge C18 column (4.6 mm × 250 mm, 5 µm) with a mobile phase of 0.05% glacial acetic acid in methanol for gradient elution, at a column temperature of 30 °C, a flow rate of 1.0 mL/min, and an injection volume of 20 μL. The method demonstrated good linearity in the concentration range of 10 µg/mL to 40 µg/mL (R=1.000) with an average recovery rate of 96.7%. The establishment of these methods provides a scientific basis for the quality control and development of the raw powder of Tongluo Shenggu capsules.
9.Phase changes and quantity-quality transfer of raw material, calcined decoction pieces, and standard decoction of Ostreae Concha (Ostrea rivularis).
Hong-Yi ZHANG ; Jing-Wei ZHOU ; Jia-Wen LIU ; Wen-Bo FEI ; Shi-Ru HUANG ; Yu-Mei CHEN ; Chong-Yang LI ; Fei-Fei LI ; Qiao-Ling MA ; Fu WANG ; Yuan HU ; You-Ping LIU ; Shi-Lin CHEN ; Lin CHEN ; Hong-Ping CHEN
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(5):1209-1223
The phase changes and quantity-quality transfer of 17 batches of Ostreae Concha(Ostrea rivularis) during the raw material-calcined decoction pieces-standard decoction process were analyzed. The content of calcium carbonate(CaCO_3), the main component, was determined by chemical titration, and the extract yield and transfer rate were calculated. The CaCO_3 content in the raw material, calcined decoction pieces, and standard decoction was 94.39%-98.80%, 95.03%-99.22%, and 84.58%-90.47%, respectively. The process of raw material to calcined decoction pieces showed the yield range of 96.85% to 98.55% and the CaCO_3 transfer rate range of 96.92% to 99.27%. The process of calcined decoction pieces to standard decoction showed the extract yield range of 2.86% to 5.48% and the CaCO_3 transfer rate range of 2.59% to 5.13%. The results of X-ray fluorescence(XRF) assay showed that the raw material, calcined decoction pieces, and standard decoction mainly contained Ca, Na, Mg, Si, Br, Cl, Al, Fe, Cr, Mn, and K. The chemometric results showed an increase in the relative content of Cr, Fe, and Si from raw material to calcined decoction pieces and an increase in the relative content of Mg, Al, Br, K, Cl, and Na from calcined decoction pieces to standard decoction. X-ray diffraction(XRD) was employed to establish XRD characteristic patterns of the raw material, calcined decoction pieces, and standard decoction. The XRD results showed that the main phase of all three was calcite, and no transformation of crystalline form or generation of new phase was observed. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy(FTIR) was employed to establish the FTIR characteristic spectra of the raw material, calcined decoction pieces, and standard decoction. The FTIR results showed that the raw material had internal vibrations of O-H, C-H, C=O, C-O, and CO■ groups. Due to the loss of organic matter components after calcination, no information about the vibrations of C-H, C=O, and C-O groups was observed in the spectra of calcined decoction pieces and standard decoction. In summary, this study elucidated the quantity-quality transfer and phase changes in the raw material-calcined decoction pieces-standard decoction process by determining the CaCO_3 content, calculating the extract yield and transfer rate, and comparing the element changes, FTIR characteristic spectra, and XRD characteristic pattern. The results were reasonable and reliable, laying a foundation for the subsequent process research and quality control of the formula granules of calcined Ostreae Concha(O. rivularis Gould), and providing ideas and methods for the quality control of the whole process of raw material-decoction pieces-standard decoction-formula granules of Ostreae Concha and other testacean traditional Chinese medicine.
Drugs, Chinese Herbal/isolation & purification*
;
Calcium Carbonate/analysis*
;
Quality Control
10.Explainable machine learning model for predicting septic shock in critically sepsis patients based on coagulation indexes: A multicenter cohort study.
Qing-Bo ZENG ; En-Lan PENG ; Ye ZHOU ; Qing-Wei LIN ; Lin-Cui ZHONG ; Long-Ping HE ; Nian-Qing ZHANG ; Jing-Chun SONG
Chinese Journal of Traumatology 2025;28(6):404-411
PURPOSE:
Septic shock is associated with high mortality and poor outcomes among sepsis patients with coagulopathy. Although traditional statistical methods or machine learning (ML) algorithms have been proposed to predict septic shock, these potential approaches have never been systematically compared. The present work aimed to develop and compare models to predict septic shock among patients with sepsis.
METHODS:
It is a retrospective cohort study based on 484 patients with sepsis who were admitted to our intensive care units between May 2018 and November 2022. Patients from the 908th Hospital of Chinese PLA Logistical Support Force and Nanchang Hongdu Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine were respectively allocated to training (n=311) and validation (n=173) sets. All clinical and laboratory data of sepsis patients characterized by comprehensive coagulation indexes were collected. We developed 5 models based on ML algorithms and 1 model based on a traditional statistical method to predict septic shock in the training cohort. The performance of all models was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and calibration plots. Decision curve analysis was used to evaluate the net benefit of the models. The validation set was applied to verify the predictive accuracy of the models. This study also used Shapley additive explanations method to assess variable importance and explain the prediction made by a ML algorithm.
RESULTS:
Among all patients, 37.2% experienced septic shock. The characteristic curves of the 6 models ranged from 0.833 to 0.962 and 0.630 to 0.744 in the training and validation sets, respectively. The model with the best prediction performance was based on the support vector machine (SVM) algorithm, which was constructed by age, tissue plasminogen activator-inhibitor complex, prothrombin time, international normalized ratio, white blood cells, and platelet counts. The SVM model showed good calibration and discrimination and a greater net benefit in decision curve analysis.
CONCLUSION
The SVM algorithm may be superior to other ML and traditional statistical algorithms for predicting septic shock. Physicians can better understand the reliability of the predictive model by Shapley additive explanations value analysis.
Humans
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Shock, Septic/blood*
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Machine Learning
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Male
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Female
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Retrospective Studies
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Middle Aged
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Aged
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Sepsis/complications*
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ROC Curve
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Cohort Studies
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Adult
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Intensive Care Units
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Algorithms
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Blood Coagulation
;
Critical Illness

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