1.Advances in role and mechanism of traditional Chinese medicine active ingredients in regulating balance of Th1/Th2 and Th17/Treg immune responses in asthma patients.
Ya-Sheng DENG ; Lan-Hua XI ; Yan-Ping FAN ; Wen-Yue LI ; Yong-Hui LIU ; Zhao-Bing NI ; Ming-Chan WEI ; Jiang LIN
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(4):1000-1021
Asthma is a chronic inflammatory disease involving multiple inflammatory cells and cytokines. Its pathogenesis is complex, involving various cells and cytokines. Traditional Chinese medicine(TCM) theory suggests that the pathogenesis of asthma is closely related to the dysfunction of internal organs such as the lungs, spleen, and kidneys. In contrast, modern immunological studies have revealed the central role of T helper 1(Th1)/T helper 2(Th2) and T helper 17(Th17)/regulatory T(Treg) cellular immune imbalance in the pathogenesis of asthma. Th1/Th2 imbalance is manifested as hyperfunction of Th2 cells, which promotes the synthesis of immunoglobulin E(IgE) and the activation of eosinophil granulocytes, leading to airway hyperresponsiveness and inflammation.Meanwhile, Th17/Treg imbalance exacerbates the inflammatory response in the airways, further contributing to asthma pathology.Currently, therapeutic strategies for asthma are actively exploring potential targets for regulating the balance of Th1/Th2 and Th17/Treg immune responses. These targets include cytokines, transcription factors, key proteins, and non-coding RNAs. Precisely regulating the expression and function of these targets can effectively modulate the activation and differentiation of immune cells. In recent years,traditional Chinese medicine active ingredients have shown unique potential and prospects in the field of asthma treatment. Based on this, the present study systematically summarizes the efficacy and specific mechanisms of TCM active ingredients in treating asthma by regulating Th1/Th2 and Th17/Treg immune balance through literature review and analysis. These active ingredients, including flavonoids, terpenoids, polysaccharides, alkaloids, and phenolic acids, exert their effects through various mechanisms, such as inhibiting the activation of inflammatory cells, reducing the release of cytokines, and promoting the normal differentiation of immune cells. This study aims to provide a solid foundation for the widespread application and in-depth development of TCM in asthma treatment and to offer new ideas for clinical research and drug development of asthma.
Asthma/genetics*
;
Humans
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Drugs, Chinese Herbal/chemistry*
;
Th2 Cells/drug effects*
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Th17 Cells/drug effects*
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T-Lymphocytes, Regulatory/drug effects*
;
Th1 Cells/drug effects*
;
Animals
;
Cytokines/immunology*
;
Medicine, Chinese Traditional
2.Advances in pathogenesis of asthma airway remodeling and intervention mechanism of traditional Chinese medicine.
Ya-Sheng DENG ; Jiang LIN ; Yu-Jiang XI ; Yan-Ping FAN ; Wen-Yue LI ; Yong-Hui LIU ; Zhao-Bing NI ; Xi MING
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(8):2050-2070
Asthma, a chronic inflammatory airway disease with a high global prevalence, has a complex pathogenesis, in which airway remodeling plays a key role in the chronicity of the disease. Airway remodeling involves a series of pathophysiological changes, including airway epithelial damage, proliferation of mucous glands and goblet cells, subepithelial fibrosis, proliferation and migration of airway smooth muscle cells, and epithelial-mesenchymal transition. These complex pathological changes significantly increase airway resistance and responsiveness, forming an important pathological basis for refractory asthma. Currently, the regulatory mechanisms of airway remodeling focus on signaling pathways and regulatory targets. The signaling pathways include phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase(PI3K)/protein kinase B(Akt), nuclear factor-κB(NF-κB), transforming growth factor-β1(TGF-β1)/Smads, and mitogen-activated protein kinase(MAPK). The regulatory targets include microRNAs(miRNAs), competing endogenous RNAs(ceRNAs), long non-coding RNAs(lncRNAs), and circular RNAs(circRNAs). Key proteins involved in these processes include TGF-β1, silencing information regulator 2-related enzyme 1(SIRT1), chitinase 3-like protein 1(YKL-40), and adenosine deaminase-metalloproteinase 33(ADAM33). In recent years, the potential of traditional Chinese medicine in the treatment of asthma has become increasingly evident. Its active ingredients, extracts, and complexes can inhibit airway remodeling in asthma through multiple pathways, demonstrating a variety of effects, including anti-inflammatory actions, inhibition of smooth muscle cell proliferation and migration, regulation of epithelial-mesenchymal transition, attenuation of fibrosis and basement membrane thickening, reduction of mucus secretion, inhibition of vascular remodeling, modulation of immune imbalance, and antioxidative stress. This paper aims to provide an in-depth analysis of the pathogenesis and therapeutic targets of asthma, offering theoretical support and innovative strategies for clinical research and drug development in the treatment of asthma.
Asthma/pathology*
;
Humans
;
Airway Remodeling/drug effects*
;
Drugs, Chinese Herbal/therapeutic use*
;
Animals
;
Signal Transduction/drug effects*
;
Medicine, Chinese Traditional
;
Transforming Growth Factor beta1/metabolism*
3.Mechanism of puerarin improving myocardial contractile function in myocardial hypertrophy by inhibiting ferroptosis via Nrf2/ARE/HO-1 signaling pathway.
Yan-Dong LIU ; Wei QIAO ; Zhao-Hui PEI ; Guo-Liang SONG ; Wei JIN ; Wei-Bing ZHONG ; Qin-Qin DENG
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(16):4679-4689
This study aims to explore the specific mechanism by which puerarin inhibits ferroptosis and improves the myocardial contractile function in myocardial hypertrophy through the nuclear factor erythroid 2-related factor 2(Nrf2)/antioxidant response element(ARE)/heme oxygenase-1(HO-1) signaling pathway. The hypertrophic cardiomyocyte model was established using phenylephrine, and H9c2 cells were divided into control group, model group, puerarin group, and puerarin+ML385 group. Cell viability and surface area were detected by cell counting kit-8(CCK-8) and immunofluorescence experiments. The mitochondrial membrane potential and Ca~(2+) concentration were measured. The ferroptosis-related indicators were detected by biochemical and fluorescence staining methods. The expression of proteins related to ferroptosis and the Nrf2/ARE/HO-1 signaling pathway was detected by Western blot. A myocardial hypertrophy model was established, and 40 rats were randomly divided into sham group, model group, puerarin group, and puerarin+Nrf2 inhibitor(ML385) group, with 10 rats in each group. Echocardiogram, hemodynamic parameters, and myocardial hypertrophy parameters were measured. Histopathological changes of myocardial tissues were observed by hematoxylin and eosin(HE) staining and Masson staining. Biochemical methods, enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay(ELISA), and fluorescence staining were used to detect inflammatory factors and ferroptosis-related indicators. Immunohistochemistry was used to detect the expression of proteins related to ferroptosis and the Nrf2/ARE/HO-1 signaling pathway. Cell experiments showed that puerarin intervention significantly enhanced the viability of hypertrophic cardiomyocytes, reduced their surface area, and restored mitochondrial membrane potential and Ca~(2+) homeostasis. Mechanism studies revealed that puerarin promoted Nrf2 nuclear translocation, upregulated the expression of HO-1, solute carrier family 7 member 11(SLC7A11), and glutathione peroxidase 4(GPX4), and decreased malondialdehyde(MDA), reactive oxygen species(ROS), and iron levels. These protective effects were reversed by ML385. In animal experiments, puerarin improved cardiac function in rats with myocardial hypertrophy, alleviated myocardial hypertrophy and fibrosis, inhibited inflammatory responses and ferroptosis, and promoted nuclear Nrf2 translocation and HO-1 expression. However, combined intervention with ML385 led to deterioration of hemodynamics and a rebound in ferroptosis marker levels. In conclusion, puerarin may inhibit cardiomyocyte ferroptosis through the Nrf2/ARE/HO-1 signaling pathway, thereby improving myocardial contractile function in myocardial hypertrophy.
Animals
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NF-E2-Related Factor 2/genetics*
;
Rats
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Ferroptosis/drug effects*
;
Signal Transduction/drug effects*
;
Isoflavones/pharmacology*
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Male
;
Rats, Sprague-Dawley
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Cardiomegaly/genetics*
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Myocytes, Cardiac/metabolism*
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Antioxidant Response Elements/drug effects*
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Myocardial Contraction/drug effects*
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Heme Oxygenase-1/genetics*
;
Cell Line
4.Clinical efficacy of open reduction and internal fixation with plates versus minimally invasive Kirschner wire fixation for osteoporotic Colles' fractures.
Jun-Wei ZHANG ; Jin-Yong HOU ; Zhao-Hui LI ; Zhen-Yuan MA ; Xiang GAO ; Hong-Zheng BI ; Ling-Ling CHEN ; Hai-Tao WANG ; Wei-Zhi NIE ; Yong-Zhong CHENG ; Xiao-Bing XI
China Journal of Orthopaedics and Traumatology 2025;38(1):18-24
OBJECTIVE:
To compare the short-term clinical efficacy and safety of closed reduction with Kirschner wire fixation versus open reduction with plate fixation for treating osteoporotic Colles' fractures in middle-aged and elderly patients.
METHODS:
Between January 2018 and January 2023, 119 patients with Colles fractures were retrospectively analyzed, including 39 males and 80 females, aged from 48 to 74 years old with an average of(60.58±6.71) years old. The time from injury to operation ranged 1 to 13 days with an average of (5.29±2.52) days. According to the surgical method, they were divided into Kirschner wire fixation group (Kirschner wire group) and plate internal fixation group (plate group). In Kirschner wire group, there were a total of 68 patients, comprising 21 males and 47 females. The average age was (61.15±6.24) years old, ranged from 49 to 74 years old. Among them, 41 cases involved the left side while 27 cases involved the right side. In the plate group, there were a total of 51 patients, including 18 males and 33 females. The average age was (59.78±5.71) years old ranged from 48 to 72 years old. Among them, there were 31 cases on the left side and 20 cases on the right side. The following parameters were recorded before and after the operation:operation time, intraoperative blood loss, hospitalization days, hospitalization expenses, postoperative complications, and radiographic parameters of distal radius (distal radius height, ulnar deviation angle, palmar tilt angle). The clinical efficacy was evaluated at 3 and 12 months after the operation using Gartland-Werley and disabilites of the arm shoulder and hand (DASH) scores.
RESULTS:
The patients in both groups were followed up for a duration from 12 to 19 months with an average of(13.32±2.02) months. The Kirschner wire group exhibited significantly shorter operation time compared to the plate group 27.91(13.00, 42.00) min vs 67.52(29.72, 105.32) min, Z=-8.74, P=0.00. Intraoperative blood loss was also significantly lower in the Kirschner wire group than in the plate group 3.24(1.08, 5.40) ml vs 21.91(17.38, 26.44) ml, Z=-9.31, P=0.00. Furthermore, patients in the Kirschner wire group had a shorter length of hospital stay compared to those in the plate group (8.38±2.63) days vs (11.40±2.78) days, t=-3.12, P=0.00. Additionally, hospitalization cost was significantly lower in the Kirschner wire group than in the plate group 10 111.29(6 738.98, 13 483.60) yuan vs 15 871.11(11 690.40, 20 051.82) yuan, Z=-5.62, P=0.00. The incidence of complications was 2 cases in the Kirschner wire group and 1 case in the plate group, with no statistically significant difference(P>0.05). At 3 months postoprative, the radial height of the Kirschner wire group was found to be significantly smaller than that of the plate group, with measurements of (11.45±1.69) mm and (12.11±1.78) mm respectively (t=-2.06, P=0.04). However, there were no statistically significant differences observed in ulnar deviation angle and palmar tilt angle between the two groups (P>0.05). The DASH score and Gartland-Werley score in the Kirschner group were significantly higher than those in the plate group at 3 months post-operation (19.10±9.89) vs (13.47±3.51), t=4.34, P=0.00;(11.15±3.61) vs (6.41±2.75), t=8.13, P=0.00). However, there was no significant difference between the two groups at 12 months post-operation (P>0.05).
CONCLUSION
Compared to plate internal fixation, closed reduction with Kirschner wire support fixation yields a slightly inferior recovery of radial height;however, there is no significant disparity in the functional score of the affected limb at 12 months post-operation. Nonetheless, this technique offers advantages such as shorter operation time, reduced intraoperative blood loss, decreased hospitalization duration, and lower cost.
Humans
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Female
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Male
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Middle Aged
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Aged
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Fracture Fixation, Internal/instrumentation*
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Bone Wires
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Bone Plates
;
Retrospective Studies
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Colles' Fracture/surgery*
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Minimally Invasive Surgical Procedures/methods*
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Open Fracture Reduction/methods*
;
Osteoporotic Fractures/surgery*
5.The Predictive Value of Age, D-Dimer, and FIB in Non-Thrombotic Diseases.
Zhao-Bing LUO ; Chao-Zan NONG ; Li-Bing HUANG ; Bai-Hui WEN
Journal of Experimental Hematology 2025;33(3):858-862
OBJECTIVE:
To explore the predictive value of age, D-Dimer and fibrinogen (FIB) for non-thrombotic.
METHODS:
A retrospective analysis was conducted on a total of 1 384 coagulation test cases from January to August 2024 at Nanning No. 8 People's Hospital. Among them, the control group comprised 400 non-thrombotic cases with D-Dimer test results within the reference range. The thrombotic group comprised 57 clinically diagnosed thrombotic patients. The research group comprised 927 non-thrombotic cases with D-Dimer levels exceeding the reference range. The diagnosis treatment records, age information, plasma D-Dimer, and FIB test results of each group were collected. The changes and correlations of age, D-Dimer, and FIB indicators were compared and analyzed among the three groups. A new combination factor was generated by fitting a Logistic binary regression model. ROC curves were used to evaluate the predictive value of each index for non-thrombotic disease in both the research group and the thrombotic group.
RESULTS:
Compared with the control group, the thrombotic group and the research group had significantly higher age, D-Dimer, and FIB levels (P < 0.001). Further comparative analysis showed that the research group had significantly lower age and D-Dimer levels than the thrombotic group, the FIB level was significantly higher than that of the thrombotic group (P < 0.001). Spearman correlation analysis showed that the correlation coefficient between age and D-Dimer in the research group was higher than that in the control group and thrombotic group (P < 0.01), the thrombotic group had the highest negative correlation coefficient between FIB and D-Dimer (P < 0.01). The ROC curve analysis results showed that the AUC values of age, plasma D-dimer, and FIB independently predicted non-thromb diseases were 0.726, 0.735, and 0.611, respectively. A new combined factor was generated by fitting age, D-dimer, and FIB with a logistic binary regression model. The AUC value of the combined prediction of non-thrombotic diseases was the maximum at 0.832, which had high diagnostic value, and its sensitivity and specificity were 0.572 and 0.070.
CONCLUSION
Elevated D-dimer levels were associated with age, increased FIB, and a variety of non-thrombotic diseases, and combination of age, D-dimer, and FIB had a certain predictive value for non-thrombotic diseases, but the combined model had a low specificity, other information needs to be combined in the clinic to improve diagnostic accuracy.
Humans
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Fibrin Fibrinogen Degradation Products
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Retrospective Studies
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Fibrinogen
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Predictive Value of Tests
;
Thrombosis
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Age Factors
;
ROC Curve
;
Male
;
Female
;
Middle Aged
;
Adult
6.Epidemiological characteristics of human respiratory syncytial virus among acute respiratory infection cases in 16 provinces of China from 2009 to 2023
Aili CUI ; Baicheng XIA ; Zhen ZHU ; Zhibo XIE ; Liwei SUN ; Jin XU ; Jing XU ; Zhong LI ; Linqing ZHAO ; Xiaoru LONG ; Deshan YU ; Bing ZHU ; Feng ZHANG ; Min MU ; Hui XIE ; Liang CAI ; Yun ZHU ; Xiaoling TIAN ; Bing WANG ; Zhenguo GAO ; Xiaoqing LIU ; Binzhi REN ; Guangyue HAN ; Kongxin HU ; Yan ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine 2024;58(7):945-951
Objective:To understand the epidemiological characteristics of human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) among acute respiratory infection (ARI) cases in 16 provinces of China from 2009 to 2023.Methods:The data of this study were collected from the ARI surveillance data from 16 provinces in China from 2009 to 2023, with a total of 28 278 ARI cases included in the study. The clinical specimens from ARI cases were screened for HRSV nucleic acid from 2009 to 2023, and differences in virus detection rates among cases of different age groups, regions, and months were analyzed.Results:A total of 28 278 ARI cases were enrolled from January 2009 to September 2023. The age of the cases ranged from<1 month to 112 years, and the age M ( Q1, Q3) was 3 years (1 year, 9 years). Among them, 3 062 cases were positive for HRSV nucleic acid, with a total detection rate of 10.83%. From 2009 to 2019, the detection rate of HRSV was 9.33%, and the virus was mainly prevalent in winter and spring. During the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the detection rate of HRSV fluctuated between 6.32% and 18.67%. There was no traditional winter epidemic peak of HRSV from the end of 2022 to the beginning of 2023, and an anti-seasonal epidemic of HRSV occurred from April to May 2023. About 87.95% (2 693/3 062) of positive cases were children under 5 years old, and the difference in the detection rate of HRSV among different age groups was statistically significant ( P<0.001), showing a decreasing trend of HRSV detection rate with the increase of age ( P<0.001). Among them, the HRSV detection rate (25.69%) was highest in children under 6 months. Compared with 2009-2019, the ranking of HRSV detection rates in different age groups changed from high to low between 2020 and 2023, with the age M (Q1, Q3) of HRSV positive cases increasing from 1 year (6 months, 3 years) to 2 years (11 months, 3 years). Conclusion:Through 15 years of continuous HRSV surveillance analysis, children under 5 years old, especially infants under 6 months old, are the main high-risk population for HRSV infection. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the prevalence and patterns of HRSV in China have changed.
7.Analysis of the epidemic characteristics of reported pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in Kashgar Prefecture, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region from 2015 to 2022 and establishment of SARIMA prediction
Chong TENG ; Fang XIE ; Bing ZHAO ; Lijie ZHANG ; Hui LI ; Yuanyuan SONG ; Yang ZHENG ; Yang ZHOU ; Jing WANG ; Fei HUANG ; Mingting CHEN ; Xichao OU
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine 2024;58(11):1665-1672
Objective:To analyze the epidemic characteristics of reported tuberculosis incidence in Kashgar from 2015 to 2022, and use the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to predict the incidence, providing references for the local control of pulmonary tuberculosis.Methods:The reported incidence data of tuberculosis in the Kashgar area of Xinjiang from January 2015 to August 2023 were collected through the"Infectious Disease Monitoring System", a subsystem of the "Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System". The epidemic characteristics of reported incidence in this area from 2015 to 2022 were analyzed. Two SARIMA models of monthly reported incidence number and rate were established. The prediction performance of the two models was evaluated using the reported incidence data of tuberculosis from January 2023 to August 2023. The χ2 test was used to analyze population characteristics, and the Cochran-Armitage trend test was used to analyze annual incidence. Results:From 2015 to 2022, 133 972 cases of pulmonary tuberculosis were reported in Kashgar, with a yearly reported incidence rate of 383.64/100 000, showing a rising trend ( TCA=77.03, P<0.001) and then a declining trend ( TCA=176.16, P<0.001). The proportion of pathogenic positive pulmonary tuberculosis had increased yearly ( TCA=132.66, P<0.001). The reported onset time was concentrated from January to June each year, with a peak in April. Yengisar County, Zepu County and Yopurga County had the highest reported incidence rate in Kashgar. The sex ratio of men to women was 1.03∶1, and the reported incidence rate of men was higher than that of women ( χ2=27.04, P<0.001). The reported incidence rate of the group aged 60 years and older was the highest. The patient′s occupation was mainly farmers (84.99%). The average relative errors of the SARIMA ( 1, 1, 2) ( 0, 1, 1) 12 model and SARIMA ( 0, 1, 1)( 0, 1, 1) 12 model in predicting the reported monthly incidence number and rate were 11.67% and -9.81%, respectively. Both models had good prediction accuracy (MAPE=33.55%, MAPE=38.22%). Conclusion:The average reported incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis in the Kashgar area shows a rising trend first and then a declining trend. The patients are mainly men and farmers, and attention should be paid to the prevention and control of tuberculosis among the elderly in winter and spring. The SARIMA ( 1, 1, 2) ( 0, 1, 1) 12 model and SARIMA ( 0, 1, 1)( 0, 1, 1) 12 model can fit the trend of reported tuberculosis incidence in the Kashgar area well and have good predictive performance.
8.Risk factors and predictive model of cerebral edema after road traffic accidents-related traumatic brain injury
Di-You CHEN ; Peng-Fei WU ; Xi-Yan ZHU ; Wen-Bing ZHAO ; Shi-Feng SHAO ; Jing-Ru XIE ; Dan-Feng YUAN ; Liang ZHANG ; Kui LI ; Shu-Nan WANG ; Hui ZHAO
Chinese Journal of Traumatology 2024;27(3):153-162
Purpose::Cerebral edema (CE) is the main secondary injury following traumatic brain injury (TBI) caused by road traffic accidents (RTAs). It is challenging to be predicted timely. In this study, we aimed to develop a prediction model for CE by identifying its risk factors and comparing the timing of edema occurrence in TBI patients with varying levels of injuries.Methods::This case-control study included 218 patients with TBI caused by RTAs. The cohort was divided into CE and non-CE groups, according to CT results within 7 days. Demographic data, imaging data, and clinical data were collected and analyzed. Quantitative variables that follow normal distribution were presented as mean ± standard deviation, those that do not follow normal distribution were presented as median (Q 1, Q 3). Categorical variables were expressed as percentages. The Chi-square test and logistic regression analysis were used to identify risk factors for CE. Logistic curve fitting was performed to predict the time to secondary CE in TBI patients with different levels of injuries. The efficacy of the model was evaluated using the receiver operator characteristic curve. Results::According to the study, almost half (47.3%) of the patients were found to have CE. The risk factors associated with CE were bilateral frontal lobe contusion, unilateral frontal lobe contusion, cerebral contusion, subarachnoid hemorrhage, and abbreviated injury scale (AIS). The odds ratio values for these factors were 7.27 (95% confidence interval ( CI): 2.08 -25.42, p = 0.002), 2.85 (95% CI: 1.11 -7.31, p = 0.030), 2.62 (95% CI: 1.12 -6.13, p = 0.027), 2.44 (95% CI: 1.25 -4.76, p = 0.009), and 1.5 (95% CI: 1.10 -2.04, p = 0.009), respectively. We also observed that patients with mild/moderate TBI (AIS ≤ 3) had a 50% probability of developing CE 19.7 h after injury (χ 2= 13.82, adjusted R2 = 0.51), while patients with severe TBI (AIS > 3) developed CE after 12.5 h (χ 2= 18.48, adjusted R2 = 0.54). Finally, we conducted a receiver operator characteristic curve analysis of CE time, which showed an area under the curve of 0.744 and 0.672 for severe and mild/moderate TBI, respectively. Conclusion::Our study found that the onset of CE in individuals with TBI resulting from RTAs was correlated with the severity of the injury. Specifically, those with more severe injuries experienced an earlier onset of CE. These findings suggest that there is a critical time window for clinical intervention in cases of CE secondary to TBI.
9.Epidemiological characteristics of human respiratory syncytial virus among acute respiratory infection cases in 16 provinces of China from 2009 to 2023
Aili CUI ; Baicheng XIA ; Zhen ZHU ; Zhibo XIE ; Liwei SUN ; Jin XU ; Jing XU ; Zhong LI ; Linqing ZHAO ; Xiaoru LONG ; Deshan YU ; Bing ZHU ; Feng ZHANG ; Min MU ; Hui XIE ; Liang CAI ; Yun ZHU ; Xiaoling TIAN ; Bing WANG ; Zhenguo GAO ; Xiaoqing LIU ; Binzhi REN ; Guangyue HAN ; Kongxin HU ; Yan ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine 2024;58(7):945-951
Objective:To understand the epidemiological characteristics of human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) among acute respiratory infection (ARI) cases in 16 provinces of China from 2009 to 2023.Methods:The data of this study were collected from the ARI surveillance data from 16 provinces in China from 2009 to 2023, with a total of 28 278 ARI cases included in the study. The clinical specimens from ARI cases were screened for HRSV nucleic acid from 2009 to 2023, and differences in virus detection rates among cases of different age groups, regions, and months were analyzed.Results:A total of 28 278 ARI cases were enrolled from January 2009 to September 2023. The age of the cases ranged from<1 month to 112 years, and the age M ( Q1, Q3) was 3 years (1 year, 9 years). Among them, 3 062 cases were positive for HRSV nucleic acid, with a total detection rate of 10.83%. From 2009 to 2019, the detection rate of HRSV was 9.33%, and the virus was mainly prevalent in winter and spring. During the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the detection rate of HRSV fluctuated between 6.32% and 18.67%. There was no traditional winter epidemic peak of HRSV from the end of 2022 to the beginning of 2023, and an anti-seasonal epidemic of HRSV occurred from April to May 2023. About 87.95% (2 693/3 062) of positive cases were children under 5 years old, and the difference in the detection rate of HRSV among different age groups was statistically significant ( P<0.001), showing a decreasing trend of HRSV detection rate with the increase of age ( P<0.001). Among them, the HRSV detection rate (25.69%) was highest in children under 6 months. Compared with 2009-2019, the ranking of HRSV detection rates in different age groups changed from high to low between 2020 and 2023, with the age M (Q1, Q3) of HRSV positive cases increasing from 1 year (6 months, 3 years) to 2 years (11 months, 3 years). Conclusion:Through 15 years of continuous HRSV surveillance analysis, children under 5 years old, especially infants under 6 months old, are the main high-risk population for HRSV infection. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the prevalence and patterns of HRSV in China have changed.
10.Analysis of the epidemic characteristics of reported pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in Kashgar Prefecture, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region from 2015 to 2022 and establishment of SARIMA prediction
Chong TENG ; Fang XIE ; Bing ZHAO ; Lijie ZHANG ; Hui LI ; Yuanyuan SONG ; Yang ZHENG ; Yang ZHOU ; Jing WANG ; Fei HUANG ; Mingting CHEN ; Xichao OU
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine 2024;58(11):1665-1672
Objective:To analyze the epidemic characteristics of reported tuberculosis incidence in Kashgar from 2015 to 2022, and use the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to predict the incidence, providing references for the local control of pulmonary tuberculosis.Methods:The reported incidence data of tuberculosis in the Kashgar area of Xinjiang from January 2015 to August 2023 were collected through the"Infectious Disease Monitoring System", a subsystem of the "Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System". The epidemic characteristics of reported incidence in this area from 2015 to 2022 were analyzed. Two SARIMA models of monthly reported incidence number and rate were established. The prediction performance of the two models was evaluated using the reported incidence data of tuberculosis from January 2023 to August 2023. The χ2 test was used to analyze population characteristics, and the Cochran-Armitage trend test was used to analyze annual incidence. Results:From 2015 to 2022, 133 972 cases of pulmonary tuberculosis were reported in Kashgar, with a yearly reported incidence rate of 383.64/100 000, showing a rising trend ( TCA=77.03, P<0.001) and then a declining trend ( TCA=176.16, P<0.001). The proportion of pathogenic positive pulmonary tuberculosis had increased yearly ( TCA=132.66, P<0.001). The reported onset time was concentrated from January to June each year, with a peak in April. Yengisar County, Zepu County and Yopurga County had the highest reported incidence rate in Kashgar. The sex ratio of men to women was 1.03∶1, and the reported incidence rate of men was higher than that of women ( χ2=27.04, P<0.001). The reported incidence rate of the group aged 60 years and older was the highest. The patient′s occupation was mainly farmers (84.99%). The average relative errors of the SARIMA ( 1, 1, 2) ( 0, 1, 1) 12 model and SARIMA ( 0, 1, 1)( 0, 1, 1) 12 model in predicting the reported monthly incidence number and rate were 11.67% and -9.81%, respectively. Both models had good prediction accuracy (MAPE=33.55%, MAPE=38.22%). Conclusion:The average reported incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis in the Kashgar area shows a rising trend first and then a declining trend. The patients are mainly men and farmers, and attention should be paid to the prevention and control of tuberculosis among the elderly in winter and spring. The SARIMA ( 1, 1, 2) ( 0, 1, 1) 12 model and SARIMA ( 0, 1, 1)( 0, 1, 1) 12 model can fit the trend of reported tuberculosis incidence in the Kashgar area well and have good predictive performance.

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