Objective:To analyze the risk factors of Mycoplasma pneumoniae（MP）lobar pneumonia with plastic bronchitis（PB）in pediatric patients，and to establish a risk nomogram prediction model.Methods:The medical informations were collected from pediatric patients diagnosed with MP lobar pneumonia who performed bronchoscopy during hospitalization in the Department of Pediatrics at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Air Force Military Medical University from April 2023 to December 2023.According to the bronchoscopic findings，the patients were divided into PB group and non-PB group.The clinical medical records and ancillary diagnostic findings were retrospectively analyzed.A multivariate Logistic regression model was used to analyze the independent risk factors for children with MP lobar pneumonia complicated with PB.A nomogram model was constructed to predict the risk of PB occurrence. Calibration curves and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test were used to evaluate the predictive value of the nomogram model for MP lobar pneumonia with PB. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to assess the diagnostic efficacy.Results:A total of 357 pediatric patients diagnosed with MP lobar pneumonia were included，with 92 cases in PB group and 265 cases in non-PB group. No statistically significant differences in gender and age were observed between the two groups（ P>0.05）.The duration of fever and the hospitalization time in PB group were longer than those in non-PB group. The incidences of pleural effusion，consolidation area of a single lung lobe ≥2/3 and atelectasis on chest CT were higher in PB group compared to non-PB group. Additionally,the levels of neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio，C-reactive protein，procalcitonin，D-dimer（D-D），alanine aminotransferase(ALT)，aspartate aminotransferase，lactate dehydrogenase，α-hydroxybutyrate dehydrogenase，interferon-γ（IFN-γ），interleukin（IL）-6，IL-10 and IFN-γ/IL-4 ratio in PB group were higher than those in non-PB group（all P<0.05）.Logistic regression analysis showed elevated D-D, ALT and IFN-γ, pleural effusion and consolidation area of a single lung lobe ≥2/3 were independent risk factors for PB.The nomogram prediction model constructed by the model demonstrated good goodness-of-fit (χ 2=11.316， P=0.184) and provided significant clinical net benefits within a risk threshold range of 0.09–0.65. The area under the ROC curve for combined prediction was 0.771（95% CI 0.716-0.826），with a sensitivity of 0.707 and specificity of 0.706. Conclusion:In children with MP lobar pneumonia, elevated laboratory markers (D-D, ALT, IFN-γ) and imaging features (pleural effusion, consolidation area of a single lung lobe ≥2/3) are critical predictors for early diagnosis of PB.The nomogram prediction model can be used to predict MP lobar pneumonia with PB in early stage.

Objective:To analyze the risk factors of Mycoplasma pneumoniae（MP）lobar pneumonia with plastic bronchitis（PB）in pediatric patients，and to establish a risk nomogram prediction model.Methods:The medical informations were collected from pediatric patients diagnosed with MP lobar pneumonia who performed bronchoscopy during hospitalization in the Department of Pediatrics at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Air Force Military Medical University from April 2023 to December 2023.According to the bronchoscopic findings，the patients were divided into PB group and non-PB group.The clinical medical records and ancillary diagnostic findings were retrospectively analyzed.A multivariate Logistic regression model was used to analyze the independent risk factors for children with MP lobar pneumonia complicated with PB.A nomogram model was constructed to predict the risk of PB occurrence. Calibration curves and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test were used to evaluate the predictive value of the nomogram model for MP lobar pneumonia with PB. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to assess the diagnostic efficacy.Results:A total of 357 pediatric patients diagnosed with MP lobar pneumonia were included，with 92 cases in PB group and 265 cases in non-PB group. No statistically significant differences in gender and age were observed between the two groups（ P>0.05）.The duration of fever and the hospitalization time in PB group were longer than those in non-PB group. The incidences of pleural effusion，consolidation area of a single lung lobe ≥2/3 and atelectasis on chest CT were higher in PB group compared to non-PB group. Additionally,the levels of neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio，C-reactive protein，procalcitonin，D-dimer（D-D），alanine aminotransferase(ALT)，aspartate aminotransferase，lactate dehydrogenase，α-hydroxybutyrate dehydrogenase，interferon-γ（IFN-γ），interleukin（IL）-6，IL-10 and IFN-γ/IL-4 ratio in PB group were higher than those in non-PB group（all P<0.05）.Logistic regression analysis showed elevated D-D, ALT and IFN-γ, pleural effusion and consolidation area of a single lung lobe ≥2/3 were independent risk factors for PB.The nomogram prediction model constructed by the model demonstrated good goodness-of-fit (χ 2=11.316， P=0.184) and provided significant clinical net benefits within a risk threshold range of 0.09–0.65. The area under the ROC curve for combined prediction was 0.771（95% CI 0.716-0.826），with a sensitivity of 0.707 and specificity of 0.706. Conclusion:In children with MP lobar pneumonia, elevated laboratory markers (D-D, ALT, IFN-γ) and imaging features (pleural effusion, consolidation area of a single lung lobe ≥2/3) are critical predictors for early diagnosis of PB.The nomogram prediction model can be used to predict MP lobar pneumonia with PB in early stage.