1.Estimation of the excess cases of hand-foot-mouth disease in Beijing with adjusted Serfling regression model
Shuaibing DONG ; Ruitong WANG ; Da HUO ; Baiwei LIU ; Hao ZHAO ; Zhiyong GAO ; Xiaoli WANG ; Peng YANG ; Quanyi WANG ; Daitao ZHANG
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;37(3):206-209
ObjectiveTo establish an adjusted Serfling regression model to estimate the excess cases and the excess epidemic period of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) in Beijing from 2011 to 2019, so as to provide data support and decision-making basis for HFMD prevention and control. MethodsThe weekly number of HFMD cases in Beijing from 2011 to 2019 was utilized for adjusted the Serfling regression model. Then the adjusted model was used to fit the baseline and epidemic threshold of HFMD in Beijing from 2011 to 2019, calculating the excess cases and determining the excess epidemic period. ResultsA total of 279 306 cases of HFMD were reported in Beijing from 2011 to 2019, with the climax of the disease occurring in summer and autumn. After adjusting the fitting R2 of the Serfling regression model to 0.773, a total of 10 excess epidemic periods totaling 92 weeks were estimated, mainly occurring in summer. The highest number of excess cases during an excess epidemic period was found in 2014 (1 272 cases, 95%CI: 990‒1 554), accounting for 65.04% of the actual cases (95%CI: 50.62%‒79.46%). ConclusionThe adjusted Serfling regression model fits well and can be utilized for early warning of HFMD and estimating the disease burden caused by HFMD.
2.Application and validation of a tumor-deposit-based modified pN staging(mpN)system for prognostic prediction in gastric cancer
Bowen HUANG ; Junzhi ZHOU ; Zhihao CHEN ; Yingjia CHEN ; Ruopeng ZHANG ; Wenkai WANG ; Junjiang WANG ; Baiwei ZHAO
Chinese Journal of General Surgery 2025;34(10):2095-2105
Background and Aims:Tumor deposits(TDs)may influence prognosis beyond the current 8th edition AJCC pTNM nodal classification in gastric cancer(GC).This study investigates the prognostic value of TD number and proposes an improved pN staging(mpN)that classifies patients with TD number>1 as pN3b.We validated the mpN staging against the 8th AJCC pN staging.Methods:A dual-center retrospective cohort study was performed,including 1 327 patients who underwent radical gastrectomy at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center(2011-2015;test cohort)and 340 patients from Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital(2015-2022;validation cohort).Patients were dichotomized into low-TD(≤1)and high-TD(>1)groups.Outcomes were overall survival(OS)and disease-free survival(DFS).Survival analyses used Kaplan-Meier curves,IPTW,and Cox regression.Predictive performance of staging systems was assessed by time-dependent ROC(tROC)/tAUC,concordance index(C-index)and Akaike information criterion(AIC).Results:TDs were present in 435/1 327(32.7%)in the test cohort.Presence of TD was associated with worse OS(IPTW-adjusted HR=2.69,95%CI=2.18-3.31,P<0.01)and DFS(HR=2.82,95%CI=2.32-3.42,P<0.01).In multivariable models,TD remained an independent adverse factor for OS(HR=1.65,95%CI=1.34-2.05;P<0.01)and DFS(HR=1.74,95%CI=1.43-2.11,P<0.01).Increasing TD number correlated with progressively poorer survival;X-tile identified>1 as an optimal cutoff,with high-TD patients showing markedly worse outcomes(OS:adjusted HR=3.65,95%CI=2.74-4.88;DFS:adjusted HR=3.74,95%CI=2.85-4.91;both P<0.01).Incorporation of TD number into the mpN staging(assigning TD>1 to pN3b)improved prognostic discrimination:in the test cohort 5-year OS tAUC was 0.746 for mpN vs.0.703 for AJCC pN(C-index 0.738 vs.0.721,AIC 5 805.27 vs.5 849.30);similar improvements were observed in the validation cohort.Conclusion:TD presence and number exert significant negative prognostic impact in GC.Classifying patients with TD number>1 as pN3b enhances prognostic accuracy.Routine reporting of TD counts and further prospective multicenter validation of mpN staging are warranted.
3.Construction and validation of a laparoscopic skills assessment system based on entrustable professional activities
Yao LIANG ; Baiwei ZHAO ; Tang LI ; Yubao TAN ; Wan HUANG ; Kunsong ZHANG ; Ming KUANG
Chinese Journal of Medical Education Research 2025;24(6):751-757
Objective:To construct and validate a competency-oriented entrustable professional activities (EPAs)-Competency-Milestones system for assessment of laparoscopic skills (ESALS).Methods:A research team composed of 15 members from five medical institutions was established. Taking the Staged Training and Assessment of Laparoscopic Skills program as the basis for EPAs, ESALS was constructed through scoping review and behavioral event interviews and the use of the Kawakita Jiro method. ESALS was applied to evaluate 49 trainees and 10 specialists (including 5 novices and 5 experts) on basic and advanced laparoscopic skills, respectively, in comparison with two other assessment tools—the Training and Assessment of Basic Laparoscopic Techniques (TABLT) and the Global Operative Assessment of Laparoscopic Skills (GOALS). Perform Mann Whitney U test using SPSS 23.0 software, and use Spearman coefficient for correlation analysis.Results:Through reviewing 13 literuature articles and interviewing 10 senior surgeons, the ESALS was developed, comprising 10 EPAs, 8 dimensions of competency characteristics, and 5 entrustable levels. In the basic skills evaluation, the ESALS score was significantly positively correlated with the TABLT score ( R=0.881, P<0.001). In the advanced skills evaluation, significant differences were observed between the novice and expert groups in all the ESALS competency scores (all P<0.05), while no difference was detected in the GOALS score of tissue handling ability. Conclusions:ESALS provides comprehensive evaluation, detailed standards, and precise feedback, with comparable efficacy to conventional tools. Future work should focus on expanding sample size to verify its generalizability and developing an electronic tool to enhance application efficiency.
4.Application and validation of a tumor-deposit-based modified pN staging(mpN)system for prognostic prediction in gastric cancer
Bowen HUANG ; Junzhi ZHOU ; Zhihao CHEN ; Yingjia CHEN ; Ruopeng ZHANG ; Wenkai WANG ; Junjiang WANG ; Baiwei ZHAO
Chinese Journal of General Surgery 2025;34(10):2095-2105
Background and Aims:Tumor deposits(TDs)may influence prognosis beyond the current 8th edition AJCC pTNM nodal classification in gastric cancer(GC).This study investigates the prognostic value of TD number and proposes an improved pN staging(mpN)that classifies patients with TD number>1 as pN3b.We validated the mpN staging against the 8th AJCC pN staging.Methods:A dual-center retrospective cohort study was performed,including 1 327 patients who underwent radical gastrectomy at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center(2011-2015;test cohort)and 340 patients from Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital(2015-2022;validation cohort).Patients were dichotomized into low-TD(≤1)and high-TD(>1)groups.Outcomes were overall survival(OS)and disease-free survival(DFS).Survival analyses used Kaplan-Meier curves,IPTW,and Cox regression.Predictive performance of staging systems was assessed by time-dependent ROC(tROC)/tAUC,concordance index(C-index)and Akaike information criterion(AIC).Results:TDs were present in 435/1 327(32.7%)in the test cohort.Presence of TD was associated with worse OS(IPTW-adjusted HR=2.69,95%CI=2.18-3.31,P<0.01)and DFS(HR=2.82,95%CI=2.32-3.42,P<0.01).In multivariable models,TD remained an independent adverse factor for OS(HR=1.65,95%CI=1.34-2.05;P<0.01)and DFS(HR=1.74,95%CI=1.43-2.11,P<0.01).Increasing TD number correlated with progressively poorer survival;X-tile identified>1 as an optimal cutoff,with high-TD patients showing markedly worse outcomes(OS:adjusted HR=3.65,95%CI=2.74-4.88;DFS:adjusted HR=3.74,95%CI=2.85-4.91;both P<0.01).Incorporation of TD number into the mpN staging(assigning TD>1 to pN3b)improved prognostic discrimination:in the test cohort 5-year OS tAUC was 0.746 for mpN vs.0.703 for AJCC pN(C-index 0.738 vs.0.721,AIC 5 805.27 vs.5 849.30);similar improvements were observed in the validation cohort.Conclusion:TD presence and number exert significant negative prognostic impact in GC.Classifying patients with TD number>1 as pN3b enhances prognostic accuracy.Routine reporting of TD counts and further prospective multicenter validation of mpN staging are warranted.
5.Construction and validation of a laparoscopic skills assessment system based on entrustable professional activities
Yao LIANG ; Baiwei ZHAO ; Tang LI ; Yubao TAN ; Wan HUANG ; Kunsong ZHANG ; Ming KUANG
Chinese Journal of Medical Education Research 2025;24(6):751-757
Objective:To construct and validate a competency-oriented entrustable professional activities (EPAs)-Competency-Milestones system for assessment of laparoscopic skills (ESALS).Methods:A research team composed of 15 members from five medical institutions was established. Taking the Staged Training and Assessment of Laparoscopic Skills program as the basis for EPAs, ESALS was constructed through scoping review and behavioral event interviews and the use of the Kawakita Jiro method. ESALS was applied to evaluate 49 trainees and 10 specialists (including 5 novices and 5 experts) on basic and advanced laparoscopic skills, respectively, in comparison with two other assessment tools—the Training and Assessment of Basic Laparoscopic Techniques (TABLT) and the Global Operative Assessment of Laparoscopic Skills (GOALS). Perform Mann Whitney U test using SPSS 23.0 software, and use Spearman coefficient for correlation analysis.Results:Through reviewing 13 literuature articles and interviewing 10 senior surgeons, the ESALS was developed, comprising 10 EPAs, 8 dimensions of competency characteristics, and 5 entrustable levels. In the basic skills evaluation, the ESALS score was significantly positively correlated with the TABLT score ( R=0.881, P<0.001). In the advanced skills evaluation, significant differences were observed between the novice and expert groups in all the ESALS competency scores (all P<0.05), while no difference was detected in the GOALS score of tissue handling ability. Conclusions:ESALS provides comprehensive evaluation, detailed standards, and precise feedback, with comparable efficacy to conventional tools. Future work should focus on expanding sample size to verify its generalizability and developing an electronic tool to enhance application efficiency.

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