OBJECTIVES: To analyze the trends of disease burden of lip and oral cancers in East Asia from 1990 to 2021 and its future projections. METHODS: We used the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database to conduct a comprehensive analysis of disease burden data from China (including Taiwan Province of China), Japan, Republic of Korea, Democratic People's Republic of Korea and Mongolia. The data were stratified by age, gender and major risk factors, and a Bayesian age-period-cohort model was employed to predict the future trends. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2021, the burden of lip and oral cancers in East Asian countries exhibited a steady increase. Taiwan Province of China experienced the most significant increases in incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), while Mongolia saw a decline in both mortality and DALYs. In 2021, Taiwan Province of China reported the highest rates of lip and oral cancer incidence (27.50 per 100 000), prevalence (137.92 per 100 000), mortality (9.59 per 100 000), and DALYs (292.07 person-years per 100 000), particularly among male and elderly populations. Tobacco use and alcohol consumption significantly exacerbated the disease burden in Taiwan Province of China and Japan. Future projections indicate that the incidence and prevalence of lip and oral cancer in China (excluding Taiwan Province of China) will continue to rise, while their mortality rates are expected to decline in most regions, except for Taiwan Province of China and Democratic People's Republic of Korea. CONCLUSIONS By the year 2035, the disease burden of lip and oral cancers in East Asia is expected to continue to increase, especially in Taiwan Province of China. To address this challenge, it is essential to implement effective measures to control major risk factors, promote early screening, and ensure equitable distribution of healthcare resources.
Humans ; Mouth Neoplasms/epidemiology* ; Incidence ; Lip Neoplasms/epidemiology* ; Asia, Eastern/epidemiology* ; Male ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Prevalence ; Female ; Forecasting ; Risk Factors ; Cost of Illness ; Middle Aged ; Global Burden of Disease ; Aged ; Bayes Theorem

The number of people living with HIV/AIDS continues to grow, estimated to be 39.5 million as of the end of 2006, while 4.3 million people were newly infected in 2006. The proportions of women has continued to grow, currently approaching 50%. Sub-Saharan Africa continues to bear the brunt of global epidemic, comprising 63% of all infections worldwide. The most striking increases have occurred in East Asia, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia. High-risk behaviors (intravenous drug use and unprotected sex between men or with paid sex workers) are the predominant route of transmission. The number of people with HIV/AIDS continues to increase since the first report of HIV in Korea, now approaching 4,580 as of the end of 2006. The real magnitude of HIV epidemic is believed to be much larger than the recent estimates by UNAIDS shows (13,000 people with HIV infection). The prevalence among the general population is still low (less than 0.1%; probably 0.003~0.01%). The HIV epidemic in Korea shows several peculiar features: 1) a male predominance suggesting that the epidemic may still be largely confined to male homosexual community, while the transmission through heterosexual contact remains less prominent, 2) a conspicuous absence of contribution of intravenous drug use to current epidemic, and 3) a very small number of vertical transmission due to the relatively limited number of infected women. The HIV epidemic is expected to continue to grow in the foreseeable future in Korea as well as globally unless drastic efforts are made to cope with the epidemic.
Africa South of the Sahara ; Asia ; Epidemiology* ; Europe, Eastern ; Far East ; Female ; Heterosexuality ; HIV ; Homosexuality ; Humans ; Korea ; Male ; Prevalence ; Seroepidemiologic Studies ; Strikes, Employee ; Unsafe Sex