1.Predictive model for severe adverse reaction associated with bevacizumab based on the global trigger tool and machine learning
Yongfei FU ; Xin LONG ; Hongzhen XU ; Jian TANG ; Xiangqing LI ; Yucheng LONG ; Dong QIN
China Pharmacy 2026;37(4):497-503
OBJECTIVE To confirm trigger items for adverse drug reaction (ADR) induced by bevacizumab, to identify and analyze the occurrence of related ADR, and to establish a predictive model for severe adverse reaction (SAR) caused by this drug. METHODS Based on the global trigger tool (GTT) theory, and referencing the GTT White Paper, drug package inserts and relevant literature, trigger items for bevacizumab-related ADR were confirmed using a single-round Delphi method. Utilizing these established items, electronic medical records of relevant patients at Guilin People’s Hospital from January 2020 to September 2024 were actively screened via the China Hospital Pharmacovigilance System. Pharmacists then identified and tallied the occurrence of bevacizumab-induced ADR. Data from patients with any positive trigger item served as the study subjects (divided into training and test sets at a ratio of 7∶3), candidate feature variables were selected from 39 related variables using the Boruta algorithm, and the multivariable Logistic regression analysis was performed with the occurrence of SAR as the dependent variable. Based on these candidate features, Logistic Regression, Extreme Gradient Boosting, Light Gradient Boosting Machine, Random Forest, and Categorical Boosting models were constructed. Model performance was evaluated using metrics including the area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic curve and recall rate. The Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method was applied to analyze and interpret the contribution of each variable. A nomogram was constructed based on the optimal model. RESULTS A total of 38 trigger items for active monitoring of bevacizumab-related ADR were determined, comprising 17 laboratory indicators, 13 clinical manifestations, and 8 intervention measures. In total, 483 patients with positive trigger items were included, and 318 patients with bevacizumab-induced ADR were identified, including 83 SARs. The positive predictive values for the trigger items and cases were 43.57% (708/1 625) and 63.84% (318/483), respectively. Bevacizumab-induced ADR involved 7 systems/organs, with the hematological system being the most frequently involved (64.15%). The Boruta algorithm selected 7 vari ables: serum potassium, hematocrit, albumin-to-globulin ratio, prealbumin, hypertension history, age and red blood cell count. Multivariable Logistic regression showed that elevated serum potassium levels were associated with a decreased risk of bevacizumab-induced SAR (OR=0.234, P =0.002), while a history of hypertension (OR=2.642, P =0.006) and increased age (OR=1.040, P =0.025) were associated with an increased risk. The Logistic Regression model demonstrated superior performance with higher AUC, F1 score and recall rate (0.761, 0.447, 0.607), compared to other models. SHAP evaluation results indicated that variables such as serum potassium, hematocrit, and age ranked highest in importance. CONCLUSIONS Totally 38 trigger entries have been successfully identified for active screening of bevacizumab-related ADR. Elevated serum potassium levels are a protective factor against bevacizumab-induced SAR, whereas the hypertension history and increased age are risk factors. The Logistic Regression model is the optimal predictive model.
2.Diagnostic value of serum Mac-2 binding protein for the severity of schistosomiasis-induced liver fibrosis
Jun WU ; Meiqun LUO ; Shuying XIE ; Ronghua ZHU ; Hui XU ; Long TANG ; Fei HU ; Sheng DING
Chinese Journal of Schistosomiasis Control 2026;38(1):38-43
Objective To evaluate the value of serum Mac-2 binding protein (M2BP) for assessment of the severity of schisto somiasis-induced liver fibrosis, so as to provide insights into non-invasive diagnosis and disease surveillance of liver fibrosis caused by schistosomiasis. Methods A total of 234 individuals with a history of Schistosoma japonicum infection were sampled from Xinhua Village, Lushan City, Jiangxi Province from 2019 to 2020, and 234 serum samples were collected from all participants. All participants received B-ultrasound examinations of the liver. Serum samples were categorized into four groups (grades 0, Ⅰ, Ⅱ and Ⅲ schistosomiasis-induced liver fibrosis groups) according to B-ultrasound examination results, and then, each group was randomly divided into a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve group and an efficacy assessment group at a ratio of 7∶3. Serum M2BP concentration was measured in four groups using the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), and differences in serum M2BP concentrations were compared with analysis of variance and Spearman correlation analysis. Serum M2BP concentration was subjected to ROC curve analysis among individuals with different grades of schistosomiasis-induced liver fibrosis in the ROC curve group to determine the optimal diagnostic threshold of M2BP concentration at different fibrosis grades, and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was calculated to evaluate the diagnostic performance. The diagnostic accuracy was verified by comparing the accordance rate and Kappa consistency test in the efficacy assessment group. Results Among 234 serum samples, there were 79 samples with grade 0 schistosomiasis-induced liver fibrosis, 87 samples with Grade Ⅰ, 46 samples with Grade Ⅱ and 22 samples with Grade Ⅲ according to the B-ultrasound examinations. The mean serum M2BP concentrations were (0.40 ± 0.31) [95% confidence interval (CI): (0.33, 0.47)], (0.64 ± 0.48) [95% CI: (0.53, 0.74)], (1.76 ± 0.58) [95% CI: (1.59, 1.93)] μg/mL and (2.56 ± 0.93) [95% CI: (2.14, 2.97)] μg/mL in the four groups, respectively (F = 150.796, P < 0.001), and the severity of schistosomiasis-induced liver fibrosis significantly positively correlated with serum M2BP concentration (rs = 0.715, P < 0. 001). The sample sizes of grades 0, Ⅰ, Ⅱ and Ⅲ schistosomiasis-induced liver fibrosis sera were randomly allocated as follows: 55 versus 24, 61 versus 26, 32 versus 14, and 15 versus 7 in the ROC curve and efficacy assessment groups, respectively, and the serum M2BP concentrations were (0.39 ± 0.29) μg/mL and (0.42 ± 0.36) μg/mL (F = 0.196, P > 0.05), (0.59 ± 0.47) μg/mL and (0.75 ± 0.51) μg/mL (F = 1.967, P > 0.05), (1.73 ± 0.59) μg/mL and (1.85 ± 0.57) μg/mL (F = 0.417, P > 0.05), and (2.46 ± 0.64) μg/mL and (2.76 ± 1.41) μg/mL (F = 0.491, P > 0.05), respectively. ROC curve analysis showed that the optimal diagnostic thresholds of serum M2BP concentration were 0.347 86 μg/mL (AUC = 0.635, P < 0.05), 1.188 83 μg/mL (AUC = 0.938, P < 0.000 1) and 2.021 21 μg/mL (AUC = 0.821, P < 0.000 1) for grade Ⅰ, Ⅱ and Ⅲ schistosomiasis-induced liver fibrosis. In addition, the accordance rates between the optimal diagnostic threshold of serum M2BP and B-ultrasound examinations for predicting grade Ⅰ, Ⅱ and Ⅲ schistosomiasis-induceed liver fibrosis were 69.23%, 85.71% and 71.43% (χ2 = 1.340, P > 0.05), and the overall Kappa consistency test showed moderate consistency [Kappa = 0.608, 95% CI: (0.428, 0.788); Z = 6.609, P < 0.000 1]. Conclusions Serum M2BP may serve as a potential biomarker for assessing moderate to advanced schistosomiasis-induced liver fibrosis; however, its diagnostic value for early-stage schistosomiasis-induced liver fibrosis remains limited.
3.Establishment and validation of a model for femoral head necrosis after internal fixation of femoral neck fracture using logistic regression and SHAP analysis
Long LIAO ; Zepeng ZHAO ; Zongyuan LI ; Qinglong YU ; Tao ZHANG ; Jinyuan TANG ; Nan YE ; Han XU ; Bo SHI
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2026;30(3):626-633
BACKGROUND:The most common complication of traumatic femoral neck fractures after internal fixation is femoral head necrosis.Currently,many studies have reported on the risk factors that affect the occurrence and development of postoperative femoral head necrosis,but there is still a lack of tools to predict the risk of femoral head necrosis after internal fixation of femoral neck fractures.OBJECTIVE:To develop a predictive model that estimates the risk of femoral head necrosis shortly after patients with femoral neck fractures receive cannulated screw internal fixation.METHODS:A retrospective analysis reviewed clinical records of 172 patients who underwent cannulated screw internal fixation for femoral neck fractures at Department of Orthopedics of Mianyang Central Hospital from January 2013 to June 2023.Patients were categorized into two groups based on the presence or absence of femoral head necrosis within one year post-operation:the necrosis group and the non-necrosis group.Univariate analysis,Lasso regression,and multivariate Logistic regression techniques were employed to identify the determinants of femoral head necrosis.A nomogram prediction model was constructed using R language's"rms"package,version 4.0.The receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate the discriminatory ability of the model.The Hosmer-Lemeshow test was used to evaluate the goodness of fit of the model,and the decision curve analysis was used to determine its clinical application benefits.Internal validation of the study was conducted using the Bootstrap method,involving 1 000 repeated samplings.To delve deeper into the primary factors influencing femoral head necrosis post-internal fixation of the femoral neck,this paper employed the SHAP method for data set analysis.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)The risk factors leading to femoral head necrosis in the short term after cannulated screw fixation of femoral neck fractures include:smoking,diabetes,Garden classification,fracture line location,reduction quality,age,and operation time.(2)The prediction model demonstrated robust performance,evidenced by an area under the curve of 0.940(95%Confidence Interval:0.903 to 0.977),indicating a high level of prediction accuracy.The model achieved a sensitivity of 90.2%and a specificity of 87.6%,indicating that its diagnostic performance was stable.The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test yielded a chi-square value of 6.593 with a P-value of 0.581,confirming that the model's predictions closely align with the observed outcomes.(3)The calibration curve of the model also performed well,and its overall trend was very close to the ideal curve,further proving the high accuracy of the model.(4)The internal validation was carried out by the Bootstrap method with 1 000 repeated samplings,and the area under the curve of the model internal validation was still as high as 0.939,proving that the model had good stability.(5)Through the decision curve,it is found that within the probability threshold range of 1%to 92%,the model can obtain the maximum net benefit value.(6)The SHAP analysis results show that among the risk factors analyzed in this study,the location of the fracture line serves as the most significant predictor of femoral head necrosis following internal fixation with cannulated screws in femoral neck fractures,and subcapital fractures are extremely prone to femoral head necrosis after surgery.(7)It is concluded that the validated prediction model demonstrates strong discriminative power and reliability,offering practical clinical utility.It serves as a useful reference tool for short-term risk assessment of femoral head necrosis following internal fixation of femoral neck fractures.
4.Establishment and validation of a model for femoral head necrosis after internal fixation of femoral neck fracture using logistic regression and SHAP analysis
Long LIAO ; Zepeng ZHAO ; Zongyuan LI ; Qinglong YU ; Tao ZHANG ; Jinyuan TANG ; Nan YE ; Han XU ; Bo SHI
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2026;30(3):626-633
BACKGROUND:The most common complication of traumatic femoral neck fractures after internal fixation is femoral head necrosis.Currently,many studies have reported on the risk factors that affect the occurrence and development of postoperative femoral head necrosis,but there is still a lack of tools to predict the risk of femoral head necrosis after internal fixation of femoral neck fractures.OBJECTIVE:To develop a predictive model that estimates the risk of femoral head necrosis shortly after patients with femoral neck fractures receive cannulated screw internal fixation.METHODS:A retrospective analysis reviewed clinical records of 172 patients who underwent cannulated screw internal fixation for femoral neck fractures at Department of Orthopedics of Mianyang Central Hospital from January 2013 to June 2023.Patients were categorized into two groups based on the presence or absence of femoral head necrosis within one year post-operation:the necrosis group and the non-necrosis group.Univariate analysis,Lasso regression,and multivariate Logistic regression techniques were employed to identify the determinants of femoral head necrosis.A nomogram prediction model was constructed using R language's"rms"package,version 4.0.The receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate the discriminatory ability of the model.The Hosmer-Lemeshow test was used to evaluate the goodness of fit of the model,and the decision curve analysis was used to determine its clinical application benefits.Internal validation of the study was conducted using the Bootstrap method,involving 1 000 repeated samplings.To delve deeper into the primary factors influencing femoral head necrosis post-internal fixation of the femoral neck,this paper employed the SHAP method for data set analysis.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)The risk factors leading to femoral head necrosis in the short term after cannulated screw fixation of femoral neck fractures include:smoking,diabetes,Garden classification,fracture line location,reduction quality,age,and operation time.(2)The prediction model demonstrated robust performance,evidenced by an area under the curve of 0.940(95%Confidence Interval:0.903 to 0.977),indicating a high level of prediction accuracy.The model achieved a sensitivity of 90.2%and a specificity of 87.6%,indicating that its diagnostic performance was stable.The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test yielded a chi-square value of 6.593 with a P-value of 0.581,confirming that the model's predictions closely align with the observed outcomes.(3)The calibration curve of the model also performed well,and its overall trend was very close to the ideal curve,further proving the high accuracy of the model.(4)The internal validation was carried out by the Bootstrap method with 1 000 repeated samplings,and the area under the curve of the model internal validation was still as high as 0.939,proving that the model had good stability.(5)Through the decision curve,it is found that within the probability threshold range of 1%to 92%,the model can obtain the maximum net benefit value.(6)The SHAP analysis results show that among the risk factors analyzed in this study,the location of the fracture line serves as the most significant predictor of femoral head necrosis following internal fixation with cannulated screws in femoral neck fractures,and subcapital fractures are extremely prone to femoral head necrosis after surgery.(7)It is concluded that the validated prediction model demonstrates strong discriminative power and reliability,offering practical clinical utility.It serves as a useful reference tool for short-term risk assessment of femoral head necrosis following internal fixation of femoral neck fractures.
5.Research progress on strategies for toxicity reduction and efficacy enhancement of triptolide
Xiaoqing ZHENG ; Ying DING ; Shanshan XU ; Long WANG ; Shanshan HAN ; Yaping XING ; Meng ZHANG ; Wenhao LI
China Pharmacy 2026;37(11):1496-1501
Triptolide (TP), the core active component of the traditional Chinese medicine Tripterygium wilfordii , exhibits remarkable pharmacological activities including anti-inflammatory, immunosuppressive and anti-tumor effects, and holds broad application prospects in the treatment of major diseases such as autoimmune diseases and malignant tumors. However, TP has a narrow therapeutic window and causes multi-organ toxicities including liver, kidney and reproductive toxicities, which severely restrict its safe clinical application and new drug development. Therefore, toxicity reduction and efficacy enhancement has become a core scientific problem urgently to be solved in this field. This paper systematically reviews the four core strategies for TP toxicity reduction and efficacy enhancement, including structural modification, dosage form improvement, herbal compatibility, and external therapies of traditional Chinese medicine. Among them, structural modification optimizes the toxic and efficacy characteristics of TP from the molecular structure level, with typica l derivatives including (5 R )-5-hydroxy triptolide, ZT01, PG490-88, etc. Dosage form modification achieves toxicity reduction and efficacy enhancement via targeted and sustained-controlled drug release of diverse delivery systems. It includes triptolide preparations such as nanoparticles, liposomes, microemulsion gels and liquid crystals, possessing favorable clinical transformation potential. The herbal compatibility and external therapies of traditional Chinese medicine conform to the holistic view of traditional Chinese medicine and have a profound clinical application foundation, but their mechanisms of action are insufficiently elucidated, and they lack unified standardized specifications and high-quality evidence-based proof. In the future, we should rely on multi-omics technology to elucidate the toxic and efficacy mechanisms, integrate technologies to optimize preparations, improve the evaluation system and promote clinical transformation.
6.Special dietary food improves exercise-induced myocardial injury in mice
Xu FENG ; Mantian MI ; Long YI ; Wei WANG ; Dagui CHEN ; Xudong YU ; Song CHEN
Journal of Army Medical University 2025;47(13):1413-1419
Objective To investigate the protective effects of Qiji Special Dietary Food on exercise-induced myocardial injury in mice.Methods An exercise-induced myocardial injury model was established using a treadmill running protocol,and at the same time,the modeled mice were administered Qiji Special Dietary Food via oral gavage,followed by a 4-week treadmill exhaustion test.Serum levels of cardiac troponin T(cTnT),creatine kinase(CK),and lactate dehydrogenase(LDH)were measured.Myocardial tissues were analyzed for superoxide dismutase(SOD)activity and malondialdehyde(MDA)content.Histopathological alterations and ultrastructural changes in myocardial tissue were evaluated using light microscopy and transmission electron microscopy(TEM).Results After 4 weeks of exhaustive training,compared to the control group,the model group exhibited significantly elevated serum cTnT,CK,and myocardial MDA levels(P<0.01),along with reduced myocardial SOD activity(P<0.01).Compared to the model group,high-,medium-,and low-dose treatment significantly attenuated the exhaustive exercise-induced increases in serum cTnT level and myocardial MDA content(P<0.01),restoring these indicators to the levels comparable to those of the normal control group(P<0.05).Additionally,all treatment groups had markedly increased myocardial SOD activity,with no significant difference from the normal group.Histopathological and ultrastructural analyses revealed markedly alleviated myocardial damage in the treatment groups,with the medium-dose group exhibiting the most pronounced protective effects.Conclusion Qiji Special Dietary Food demonstrates significant protective effects against exercise-induced myocardial injury in mice,which maybe associated with its antioxidant activity and mitigation of oxidative stress.
7.Analyzing Promotion Effect of Rare Earth Species Located in Ce-HY on Polyethylene Upgrading
Xue-Ting WU ; Jing XU ; Xiao-Wei MU ; Long TIAN ; Xiao WANG ; Shu-Yan SONG ; Hong-Jie ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Analytical Chemistry 2025;53(5):794-803
The continuous accumulation of plastic waste such as polyethylene in the environment has caused serious environmental pollution issues.Considering the high similarity in the molecular structure of petroleum and polyolefin,it is feasible to apply rare earth-zeolite catalysts in polyolefin plastic upcycling,which is commonly used in fluid catalytic cracking(FCC)in the field of petroleum refining.In this study,Ce-modified HY(Ce-HY)zeolites were synthesized and characterized by a series of analytical methods,such as high-angle annular dark-field scanning transmission electron microscopy(HAADF-STEM),Fourier infrared spectroscopy(FT-IR),X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy(XPS),etc.When introducing 5% Ce species into HY zeolites,the 5Ce-HY showed excellent catalytic performance in the catalytic cracking of low-density polyethylene(LDPE),which achieved 98.4% LDPE conversion with 91.5% selectivity of gaseous alkanes at 300℃,and 75.4% of them were isoparaffins.In addition,the effect of the location of rare earth species in Y zeolites on the catalytic performance was explored by fine X-ray diffraction(XRD)in the range of 11°-13°and in situ-Raman analyses.The Ce species located in the supercage of Y zeolites were more important,which enhanced the adsorption capacity and accessibility of substrate molecules,thus facilitating the entire catalytic cracking process.This method could be used to detect the location of rare earth elements in Y zeolites to understand the mechanism of rare earth catalysis.
8.Rapid Monitoring of Hydroxyl Value and Conjugated Linoleic Acid Content During Dehydration of Castor Oils Based on Fourier Transform Infrared Spectrometry Coupled with Chemometrics
Feng-Dan YAN ; Yan WANG ; Wen-Long LI ; Pan-Pan XU ; Dan PENG ; Jun LI
Chinese Journal of Analytical Chemistry 2025;53(8):1371-1379
The hydroxyl value and conjugated linoleic acid content of dehydrated castor oils are two important indicators that reflect its properties.Thus,monitoring the two indicators can better realize the industrial production of high-quality dehydrated castor oils.However,traditional chemical measurement methods have many disadvantages in determination of the two indictors,including large reagent consumption,long determination time,and cannot achieve rapid monitoring.Fourier transform infrared spectrometry(FTIR)is a new and non-destructive detection method that is low-cost and can achieve rapid detection.In this work,FTIR technique was employed to collect spectral information of dehydrated castor oils and analyze the relationship between FTIR spectral information and hydroxyl value and conjugated linoleic acid content,and a rapid detection method for detecting the property indicators of dehydrated castor oils was thus established.FTIR scanning was performed on dehydrated castor oils with a hydroxyl value of 21.9-161.4 mg KOH/g and a conjugated linoleic acid content of less than 37.5%.Among different preprocessing methods,orthogonal scatter correction(OSC)could improve the prediction accuracy of the resulting model,by which the optimal modeling data segments for hydroxyl value and conjugated linoleic acid content were 3200-3800 cm-1 and 800-1200 cm-1,respectively,and the optimal modeling method was partial least squares(PLS).The coefficients of determination of the optimal models for hydroxyl value and conjugated linoleic acid content were all above 0.99.
9.Construction of a Competency Evaluation Model for Forensic Practitioners
Jing-Chun BAO ; Jing-Jing ZHAO ; Jiao-Yong LI ; Jing-Hua MENG ; Xiao-Long WANG ; Xiao-Ni ZHAN ; Jun YAO ; Xu WU
Journal of Forensic Medicine 2025;41(4):371-379
Objective To construct a competency evaluation model for forensic practitioners,providing a reference for their training and assessment.Methods Based on the iceberg and onion models of com-petency,and with reference to Spencer's Competency Dictionary,literature research was conducted and focus group interviews were employed to preliminarily construct core indices and measurement items for evaluating the competency of forensic practitioners.The Delphi method was applied for two rounds of expert consultation to further refine the competency evaluation index system.The analytic hierarchy process(AHP)was used to calculate the weights of the indices.Results A competency evaluation model for forensic practitioners was constructed,consisting of 7 core indices,encompassing forensic skills,identification service capabilities,and the ability to apply relevant legal knowledge and 49 mea-surement items.The weights of the core indices and measurement items were determined.Conclusion The constructed competency evaluation model for forensic practitioners is scientifically sound and inno-vative,and has unique characteristics of forensic medicine compared with other medical models.
10.Expression levels of serum miR-186-5p and miR-942-5p in patients with glioma and their clinical significance
Wensheng LI ; Chunfei ZHAO ; Jieqin YAO ; Chengjie XU ; Jianqi XIAO ; Haiping JIANG ; Chunyu ZHANG ; Xiaoao LONG
International Journal of Laboratory Medicine 2025;46(1):81-85
Objective To investigate the expression levels of serum miR-186-5p and miR-942-5p in patients with glioma and their clinical significance.Methods A total of 98 patients with glioma who were treated in this hospital from October 2019 to December 2021 were selected as the monitored group,and 101 healthy indi-viduals who underwent physical examinations a the same time were selected as the control group.Quantitative fluorescent PCR(qPCR)method was applied to detect the expression levels of miR-186-5p and miR-942-5p in serum,and multivariate COX regression was applied to analyze the prognostic factors of glioma patients.Re-ceiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and area under curve(AUC)were used to analyze the diagnostic value of serum miR-186-5p and miR-942-5p in glioma.Kaplan-Meier survival curve was used to analyze the re-lationship between serum miR-186-5p and miR-942-5p expression and prognosis of patients.Results The ex-pression level of serum miR-186-5p in monitored group was lower than that in the control group(P<0.05),and the expression level of miR-942-5p was higher than that in the control group(P<0.05).The AUC of ser-um miR-186-5p and miR-942-5p in the diagnosis of glioma alone and in combination were 0.735,0.809 and 0.895,respectively.There were significant differences in the proportion of low miR-186-5p expression and high miR-942-5p expression in serum of patients with different preoperative Karnofsky performance status(KPS)scores,World Health Organization(WHO)grades and local infiltration(P<0.05).The 2-year surviv-al rate of patients with high expression of miR-186-5p was higher than that of patients with low expression of miR-186-5p(x2=6.455,P=0.011).The 2-year survival rate of patients with high miR-942-5p expression was lower than that of patients with low miR-942-5p expression(x2=9.858,P=0.002).miR-186-5p was a protective factor for mortality in glioma patients(P<0.05),while miR-942-5p was a risk factor(P<0.05).Conclusion Serum miR-186-5p expression level decreases and miR-942-5p expression level increases in glioma patients,both of which have certain diagnostic value for the occurrence of glioma.

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