1.Analysis of the trend and spatial aggregation of cervical cancer mortality in Shandong Province, 1970-2021
Zhentao FU ; Fan JIANG ; Zilong LU ; Jie CHU ; Xiaohui XU ; Bingyin ZHANG ; Aiqiang XU ; Fuzhong XUE ; Xiaolei GUO ; Jixiang MA
Chinese Journal of Oncology 2025;47(6):485-490
Objective:To explore the spatial clustering of the mortality rate of cervical cancer in different counties (cities, districts) in Shandong Province from 1970 to 2021 and its 50-year changing trend, so as to provide basis for the implementation and evaluation of prevention and control strategies and programs such as cervical cancer screening, early diagnosis and treatment, human papilloma virus (HPV) vaccination, etc.Methods:The mortality data of cervical cancer were obtained from the death registration system of Shandong Province and the data of three retrospective surveys of death causes. The mortality rate and age-standardized mortality rate (using the population composition of China in 1964) are used to describe the changing trend of cervical cancer in different years. The contribution values of population factors and non-population factors in cervical cancer mortality change are calculated by mortality differential decomposition method. ArcGIS 10.8 software is used for spatial distribution and spatial autocorrelation analysis.Results:From 1970 to 2021, the crude mortality rate and age standardized mortality rate of cervical cancer in Shandong Province showed a trend of first rapid decline and then slow increase. The crude mortality rate and standardized mortality rate of female cervical cancer in Shandong Province in 1970-1974 were the highest, reaching 17.22/10 5 and 13.17/10 5, respectively. In 2004-2005, it dropped to the lowest levels of 1.50/10 5 and 0.83/10 5. Subsequently, it slowly rose to 4.12/10 5 and 1.56/10 5 in 2020-2021. The differential analysis of cervical cancer mortality in different years found that the change of cervical cancer mortality was caused by the combined action of population factors and non-population factors. Among them, demographic factors (aging population) led to the increase of cervical cancer mortality, but non-demographic factors (early diagnosis and treatment, HPV infection level, medical technology level, etc) lead to the decrease of cervical cancer mortality. Compared with 1970-1974, with the passage of time, the absolute values of the contribution values of population factors and non-population factors showed an increasing trend, while the contribution of non-population factors was greater than that of population factors, which led to the decline of cervical cancer mortality. From the perspective of spatial distribution, there were great regional differences in the mortality rate of cervical cancer in different counties of Shandong Province. In 2020-2021, the mortality rate of cervical cancer in all counties decreased to a great extent compared with that in 1970-1974, and the high-high and low-low concentration areas of cervical cancer mortality in different years changed obviously. The high-aggregation areas of the cervical cancer mortality rate in Shandong Province from 2020 to 2021 were mainly distributed in some counties and districts of Linyi City, Zaozhuang City, and Heze City in the southwest. Conclusions:There are significant temporal and spatial changes in the mortality rate of cervical cancer in Shandong Province from 1970 to 2021. According to these trends and their geographical and spatial clustering, prevention and control strategies of cervical cancer in different regions should be further formulated and evaluated.
2.The spatio-temporal trend of female breast cancer incidence and mortality in Shandong Province from 2012 to 2023 and trend prediction
Fan JIANG ; Zhentao FU ; Qinfu WANG ; Jie CHU ; Bingyin ZHANG ; Zilong LU ; Xiaolei GUO ; Aiqiang XU
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2025;46(4):646-654
Objective:We aimed to analyze the spatio-temporal trend of breast cancer incidence and mortality in Shandong Province from 2012 to 2023 and predict the development trend from 2024 to 2030.Methods:Data on the incidence and mortality of breast cancer in Shandong Province from 2012 to 2023 were obtained from the Shandong Cancer Registry. The incidence, age-specific incidence, mortality, and age-specific mortality in different years, as well as in urban and rural areas, were calculated, and the rates were standardized based on the age composition of the Chinese standard population in 2000. The average annual percent change (AAPC) rate was calculated using Joinpoint 4.8.0.1 software. The global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis were performed using GeoDa 1.12 software. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the trend of breast cancer incidence and mortality from 2024 to 2030.Results:From 2012 to 2023, the breast cancer age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) showed an increasing trend. The ASIR increased from 30.48/100 000 in 2012 to 39.94/100 000 in 2023 (AAPC=2.59%, P<0.001). The ASIR of urban and rural females also showed an upward trend. Additionally, the ASIR in rural areas (AAPC=3.33%, P<0.001) increased more than that in urban areas (AAPC=1.83%, P=0.002). The incidence peak of breast cancer mainly concentrated in population aged 45-64 years, and with the increase of years, the incidence peak gradually moved forward. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) showed a downward trend. The ASMR decreased from 6.89/100 000 in 2012 to 4.93/100 000 in 2023 (AAPC=-3.12%, P<0.001). The ASMR of urban and rural females also showed a downward trend (urban: AAPC=-3.56%, P=0.007; rural: AAPC=-2.72%, P<0.001). The spatial analysis showed that from 2015 to 2023, the clustering areas of breast cancer incidence and mortality in Shandong had changed significantly. In 2015, the "High-high clusters" of ASIR mainly included Wendeng District in Weihai City, Dongying District, Kenli District, Lijin County, Guangrao County in Dongying City, Tianqiao District, Shizhong District in Jinan City; In 2023, the "High-high clusters" mainly included Jiaxiang County, Liangshan County, Jinxiang County, Wenshang County, Rencheng District in Jining City, Hedong District in Linyi City, Guangrao County in Dongying City. In 2015, the "High-high clusters" of ASMR only included Wenshang County in Jining City. In 2023, the "High-high clusters" mainly included Laizhou County in Yantai City, Junan County and Yishui County in Linyi City, Gaotang County in Liaocheng City, Dongping County and Ningyang County in Taian City. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model predicted that the ASIR trend of breast cancer in Shandong tended to be smooth (AAPC=0.33%, P=0.001). However, the ASMR remained decreasing (AAPC=-4.68%, P<0.001). Conclusions:The breast cancer incidence in Shandong showed an increasing trend, and it is expected to be smooth by 2030. However, the mortality showed a continuous downward trend. The incidence peak was mainly in the population aged 45-64 years, with obvious regional differences. Targeted prevention and control measures should be taken for high-risk groups and areas in Shandong Province.
3.Analysis of epidemic trend and spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of pertussis in Shandong Province from 2015 to 2024
Lei FENG ; Meng XIE ; Yi LIU ; Yan ZHANG ; Xinyu YUAN ; Aiqiang XU ; Li ZHANG ; Hongfu SUN
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;59(11):1840-1847
Objective:To analyze the epidemic trend and spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of pertussis in Shandong Province from 2015 to 2024.Methods:Data on pertussis cases in Shandong Province from 2015 to 2024 were collected from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. The ArcGIS spatiotemporal method was used to analyze the epidemic trend and spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of pertussis, and determine the hotspots of incidence.Results:From 2015 to 2024, 46 172 cases of pertussis were reported in Shandong Province, with an average annual incidence rate of about 4.60/100 000. The reported incidence rate showed an overall upward trend, and in 2024, the reported incidence rate reached the highest level in history (19.20/100 000) since the implementation of children′s planning immunization. The areas with high incidence rates were mainly located in the central and western regions of Shandong Province, including Jinan city, Liaocheng city, Tai′an city, Zibo city, Binzhou city, Jining city, Dezhou city, Zaozhuang city, and Dongying city. The global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the Moran′s I index of incidence rate of pertussis in Shandong Province in each year from 2015 to 2024 was >0.00, showing obvious spatial clustering. Local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the "high high" clustering areas were mainly distributed in some counties (cities, districts) in the central and western regions of Shandong Province, which were hotspots for pertussis incidence in Shandong Province. The spatial trend surface analysis showed that the annual incidence rate of pertussis in each year basically decreased from west to east. In the early stage of the north-south direction, there was a curved trend of low north-south and high in the middle. In the middle and later stages, the northern part was mostly in a higher position, indicating that the central and western regions were the high-risk areas for pertussis in Shandong Province. Conclusions:The pertussis epidemic in Shandong Province from 2015 to 2024 has obvious spatiotemporal clustering, and the central and western regions are the key areas for pertussis prevention and control.
4.The investigation and spatio-temporal analysis of first importation associated D8 genotype measles case in a child, Shandong Province, 2023
Suting WANG ; Yao LIU ; Qing XU ; Shuaizhi GUO ; Dongchen LIU ; Aiqiang XU ; Zexin TAO ; Li ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;59(4):451-457
Objective:To analyze the epidemiological, etiological characteristics and transmission of an imported D8 genotype measles case in a child in Shandong Province, August 2023.Methods:A study was conducted on a measles case and 16 contacts in Shandong Province in August 2023. Field epidemiological surveys, including recent exposure and immunization history, were conducted. Serum and throat swab samples were collected from all 16 subjects. Measles IgM and IgG antibody levels and avidity were measured by ELISA, while virus detection and genotyping were performed using fluorescence quantitative PCR and RT-PCR. Genetic evolutionary analysis of the obtained sequences was conducted using MEGA and Beast software.Results:The case was an 11-year-old boy, a fifth-grade student, who developed symptoms on August 28, 2023. A total of five close contacts were investigated, including three family members (grandfather, father and sister) and two playmates. Additionally, 11 classmates who had close contact with the case′s sister during the infectious period (within five days after the rash onset) were also investigated. Among the 16 serum samples tested, only one case was positive for IgM, while the other 15 samples were negative for IgM. The results of the serum antibody avidity test showed that among the 16 serum samples, 14 were positive for IgG. Of these, eight had a relative avidity index >55%, indicating high-avidity antibodies; one had a relative avidity index <45%, indicating low-avidity antibodies; and five had an avidity index between 45% and 55%. The IgG detection OD values for the case′s sister and grandfather were higher than those of the other contacts. Based on the vaccination history of the subjects and the results of IgM and IgG tests, it was preliminarily determined that the case had a recent wild-type measles virus infection. The case′s sister and grandfather had a history of measles wild-type virus infection, while the high-avidity antibodies in the other contacts were likely induced by the measles vaccine. The results of the pharyngeal swab tests showed that only the case was positive for measles virus nucleic acid, while the remaining 15 samples were negative for measles virus. The genetic evolutionary analysis revealed that the viral sequence of this case (Mvs/Shandong.CHN/38.23) had a 100% homology with the Hong Kong strain sequence from August 2023. It belonged to a different transmission chain from the D8 genotype strains that appeared in Shandong Province between 2018 and 2019, with sequence homology ranging from 98.0% to 98.8%. The sequence homology within the transmission chain of this case was between 99.1% and 100%. The evolutionary rate of this transmission chain was approximately 8.38×10 -3 sub/site/year, and the most recent common ancestor was estimated to have emerged around the year 2011. Conclusion:This case is the first imported D8 genotype measles case in Shandong Province. There is no spatio-temporal correlation between this case and adult cases of D8 genotype imported from Shandong Province in 2018-2019, indicating a new D8 genotype imported epidemic.
5.Analysis of the trend and spatial clustering of lung cancer mortality in Shandong Province from 1970 to 2021
Zhentao FU ; Fan JIANG ; Zilong LU ; Jie CHU ; Xiaohui XU ; Bingyin ZHANG ; Fuzhong XUE ; Xiaolei GUO ; Aiqiang XU ; Jixiang MA
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;59(5):555-560
Objective:To understand spatial aggregation of lung cancer mortality and its changing trends over the past fifty years in different counties and districts of Shandong Province from 1970 to 2021.Methods:The mortality data of lung cancer were obtained from the death registration system of Shandong province and three retrospective surveys of death cause. The mortality rate and age-standardized mortality rate were used to describe the changing trend of lung cancer in different years, and the contribution value of population factors and non-population factors in lung cancer mortality change was calculated by the mortality differential decomposition method. GeoDa 1.20 and ArcGIS 10.8 software were used for spatial autocorrelation analysis and visualization map display.Results:The crude mortality rate of lung cancer in Shandong Province showed a significant upward trend from 1970 to 2021, rising from 7.22 per 100 000 in 1970-1974 to 62.73 per 100 000 in 2020-2021, with an increase of 7.69 times. Meanwhile, the standardized mortality rate of lung cancer exhibited a trend of increasing first and then decreasing. The differential analysis of lung cancer mortality in different years revealed that changes in crude mortality rates were the result of the combined effects of demographic and non-demographic factors. The proportion of population factors (aging population) leading to an increase in lung cancer mortality rate rose from 2.12% in 1990-1992 to 40.20% in 2020-2021. From a spatial distribution perspective, there were significant regional differences in lung cancer mortality rates among counties (cities, districts) in Shandong Province across different eras. Compared to the period of 1970-1974, the lung cancer mortality rates in all counties and districts in 2020-2021 showed a considerable increase, and there were noticeable changes in the areas of high-high and low-low clustering of lung cancer mortality rates across different eras.Conclusion:There have been significant temporal and spatial changes in the mortality rate of lung cancer in Shandong Province from 1970 to 2021. The crude mortality rate has shown an upward trend, while the standardized mortality rate increases first and then decreases. The concentration of lung cancer mortality rates in counties and districts has also undergone significant changes.
6.Development and application of polysaccharide conjugate vaccine carrier protein
Jingxin LI ; Xiao MA ; Ang LIN ; Hongxing PAN ; Bo HAO ; Juan SHAO ; Yuezhu LI ; Yangting XU ; Zhujun SHAO ; Aiqiang XU
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;59(7):1131-1140
The development of polysaccharide conjugate vaccines, which convert polysaccharide antigens into T-cell-dependent immunogens through covalent conjugation with protein carriers, represents a critical strategy for enhancing immune protection in infants and young children. Globally licensed conjugate vaccines currently employ carrier proteins including Tetanus Toxoid, Diphtheria Toxoid, and Cross-Reacting Material 197. Recent advances have focused on three key areas: novel carrier protein discovery, optimized conjugation strategies, and evaluation of immune interference during co-administration of multivalent formulations. These efforts aim to achieve broader serotype coverage, prolonged protective efficacy, and simplified immunization schedules. This review synthesizes recent progress in carrier protein development, encompassing vaccine design principles, manufacturing processes, safety profiles, and epidemiological effectiveness. Furthermore, it critically examines current selection criteria for carrier proteins, their clinical applications, and persistent challenges, providing strategic insights to inform future conjugate vaccine development and immunization policy optimization in China.
7.Analysis of the trend and spatial clustering of esophageal cancer mortality in Shandong Province from 1970 to 2021
Zilong LU ; Jie REN ; Junli TANG ; Jie CHU ; Zhentao FU ; Fan JIANG ; Xiaohui XU ; Xiaolei GUO ; Aiqiang XU
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;59(5):549-554
Objective:To describe the distribution characteristics and trends of mortality and spatial aggregation of esophageal cancer in Shandong Province from 1970 to 2021.Methods:The mortality data of esophageal cancer were obtained from the death registration system of Shandong Province and three national all-cause mortality retrospective surveys. The crude mortality rate (CMR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR, the Segi′s world standard population) were used to describe the mortality of esophageal cancer. Mortality differential decomposition was applied to quantify the contributions of demographic and non-demographic factors. The death levels of esophageal cancer in different counties (cities and districts) in Shandong Province from 1970 to 1974 and 2020 to 2021 were visualized by the ArcGIS 10.8 software, and global and local autocorrelation analyses were conducted by using the GeoDa 1.12 software.Results:The CMR of esophageal cancer in Shandong Province increased first and then decreased from 1970 to 2021. The CMR of esophageal cancer decreased from 17.59/100 000 in the period of 1970—1974 to 14.32/100 000 in the period of 2020—2021. The ASMR of esophageal cancer decreased from 20.04/100 000 in the period of 1970—1974 to 6.53/100 000 in the period of 2020—2021. Compared with the period of 1970—1974, both demographic and non-demographic factors contributed to the increase in esophageal cancer mortality rate from 1990 to 1992. However, demographic factors continued to contribute to the increase in esophageal cancer mortality rate from 2004 to 2005, 2011 to 2013, and 2020 to 2021, while non-demographic factors contributed to the continuous decrease in esophageal cancer mortality rate. The global autocorrelation analysis results showed that the Moran′s I index of ASMR of esophageal cancer in each county (city, district) of Shandong Province from 1970 to 1974 and from 2020 to 2021 were 0.67 and 0.57, respectively. Local autocorrelation analysis showed that there were 19 and 13 areas of high-high clustering of esophageal cancer in the periods of 1970—1974 and 2020—2021, respectively, with 12 overlapping counties (cities, districts). Conclusion:From 1970 to 2021, the CMR of esophageal cancer increases first and then decreases, while the ASMR of esophageal cancer gradually decreases in Shandong Province. The distribution of esophageal cancer mortality has significant spatial aggregation and changes over time.
8.Analysis of occupational burnout status and related factors among immunization program staff in Dezhou City, 2025
Longfei WANG ; Xiao YANG ; Tingting LYU ; Zheng LIU ; Aiqiang XU
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;59(7):1040-1046
Objective:To analyze the current status and related factors of occupational burnout among immunization program staff in Dezhou City in 2025.Methods:From February to March 2025, 1 209 healthcare workers engaged in immunization programs in all disease prevention and control centers (CDCs), vaccination clinics and obstetrics vaccination rooms within the jurisdiction of Dezhou City were enrolled in this study. Basic information was collected via questionnaires. The Maslach Burnout Inventory-General Survey (MBI-GS) was used to assess occupational burnout status across three dimensions: emotional exhaustion, depersonalization and low personal achievement, with severity graded by scores. Multivariate logistic regression models were adopted to analyze the related factors of occupational burnout.Results:Among 1 209 participants, 986 (81.56%) were female and 513 (42.43%) were aged ≥40 years old. About 91 (7.53%) worked in CDCs, 970 (80.23%) in vaccination clinics and 148 (12.24%) in obstetric units. The detection rate of occupational burnout was 83.87% (1 014/1 209), with mild-to-moderate and severe occupational burnout rates of 16.38% (198/1 209) and 67.49% (816/1 209), respectively. Multivariate logistic regression model showed that compared with those who had no intention of resigning, those who frequently had turnover intention ( OR=10.225, 95% CI: 4.093-25.543) had a higher risk of experiencing occupational burnout. Compared with those who slept for more than seven hours a day, those who slept for less than six hours a day ( OR=4.266, 95% CI: 1.773-10.266) and those who slept for 6-7 hours ( OR=1.543, 95% CI: 1.100-2.164) had a higher risk of developing occupational burnout. Conclusion:The detection rate of occupational burnout among immunization program staff in Dezhou City is relatively high, significantly related to frequent turnover intention and insufficient sleep.
9.Improving the coverage rate of human papillomavirus vaccine among adolescent females to contribute to the goal of eliminating cervical cancer in China
Aiqiang XU ; Weizhong YANG ; Fanghui ZHAO ; Xinghuo PANG
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;59(9):1489-1494
China has long prioritized the prevention and control of cervical cancer. In 2023, the National Health Commission and nine other departments jointly formulated the "Action Plan for Accelerating the Elimination of Cervical Cancer (2023-2030)". This article reviews the current global and Chinese progress in eliminating cervical cancer and HPV vaccination efforts. It specifically analyzes the problems and challenges faced in improving the HPV vaccination coverage rate among adolescent females in China. The article articulates the public health value of this improvement in achieving the ultimate goal of eliminating cervical cancer. Furthermore, it proposes targeted technical recommendations, including promptly incorporating HPV vaccination among adolescent females into the National Immunization Plan, formulating and continuously improving vaccination strategies and implementation plans, strengthening science popularization and publicity, and enhancing public opinion monitoring and risk management. These recommendations aim to promote health equity and contribute to the goal of eliminating cervical cancer as soon as possible.
10.The spatio-temporal trend of female breast cancer incidence and mortality in Shandong Province from 2012 to 2023 and trend prediction
Fan JIANG ; Zhentao FU ; Qinfu WANG ; Jie CHU ; Bingyin ZHANG ; Zilong LU ; Xiaolei GUO ; Aiqiang XU
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2025;46(4):646-654
Objective:We aimed to analyze the spatio-temporal trend of breast cancer incidence and mortality in Shandong Province from 2012 to 2023 and predict the development trend from 2024 to 2030.Methods:Data on the incidence and mortality of breast cancer in Shandong Province from 2012 to 2023 were obtained from the Shandong Cancer Registry. The incidence, age-specific incidence, mortality, and age-specific mortality in different years, as well as in urban and rural areas, were calculated, and the rates were standardized based on the age composition of the Chinese standard population in 2000. The average annual percent change (AAPC) rate was calculated using Joinpoint 4.8.0.1 software. The global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis were performed using GeoDa 1.12 software. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the trend of breast cancer incidence and mortality from 2024 to 2030.Results:From 2012 to 2023, the breast cancer age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) showed an increasing trend. The ASIR increased from 30.48/100 000 in 2012 to 39.94/100 000 in 2023 (AAPC=2.59%, P<0.001). The ASIR of urban and rural females also showed an upward trend. Additionally, the ASIR in rural areas (AAPC=3.33%, P<0.001) increased more than that in urban areas (AAPC=1.83%, P=0.002). The incidence peak of breast cancer mainly concentrated in population aged 45-64 years, and with the increase of years, the incidence peak gradually moved forward. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) showed a downward trend. The ASMR decreased from 6.89/100 000 in 2012 to 4.93/100 000 in 2023 (AAPC=-3.12%, P<0.001). The ASMR of urban and rural females also showed a downward trend (urban: AAPC=-3.56%, P=0.007; rural: AAPC=-2.72%, P<0.001). The spatial analysis showed that from 2015 to 2023, the clustering areas of breast cancer incidence and mortality in Shandong had changed significantly. In 2015, the "High-high clusters" of ASIR mainly included Wendeng District in Weihai City, Dongying District, Kenli District, Lijin County, Guangrao County in Dongying City, Tianqiao District, Shizhong District in Jinan City; In 2023, the "High-high clusters" mainly included Jiaxiang County, Liangshan County, Jinxiang County, Wenshang County, Rencheng District in Jining City, Hedong District in Linyi City, Guangrao County in Dongying City. In 2015, the "High-high clusters" of ASMR only included Wenshang County in Jining City. In 2023, the "High-high clusters" mainly included Laizhou County in Yantai City, Junan County and Yishui County in Linyi City, Gaotang County in Liaocheng City, Dongping County and Ningyang County in Taian City. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model predicted that the ASIR trend of breast cancer in Shandong tended to be smooth (AAPC=0.33%, P=0.001). However, the ASMR remained decreasing (AAPC=-4.68%, P<0.001). Conclusions:The breast cancer incidence in Shandong showed an increasing trend, and it is expected to be smooth by 2030. However, the mortality showed a continuous downward trend. The incidence peak was mainly in the population aged 45-64 years, with obvious regional differences. Targeted prevention and control measures should be taken for high-risk groups and areas in Shandong Province.

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