1.Determinants of age at adiposity rebound in Filipino pediatric outpatients of a University Hospital.
Emmanuel F. BARAQUEL ; Bernard Emil N. BARRERA ; Danica Louice S. BASILIO ; Aleeza Casey S. BATARA ; Serena Mey M. BAUTISTA ; Sean Kenneth N. BANTING ; Charles Dominic BARRIGA ; Eljon Valen C. BANIQUED ; Marichu J. DE CHAVEZ ; Leilani B. MERCADO-ASIS
Journal of Medicine University of Santo Tomas 2026;10(1):1848-1861
OBJECTIVES
Adiposity rebound (AR), the childhood period at which body mass index (BMI) rises from its lowest point, is linked to increased risk of later obesity. The study aims to determine the average age at AR, describe baseline characteristics and analyze the correlation between these characteristics and timing of AR in a population of Filipino pediatric outpatients.
DESIGNSeven subjects born between 2016 and 2019 from a University Hospital Outpatient Department participated in this cross-sectional analytic study. Childhood anthropometrics were retrospectively collected to determine the age at AR by plot visual inspection. Sex, birth weight and gestational age were obtained from hospital records; breastfeeding duration, maternal BMI, parental obesity, maternal age, maternal smoking, education, parity and family income were gathered through a questionnaire completed by mothers or guardians. Associations were assessed using bootstrap univariate linear regression.
RESULTSThe mean age at AR was 3.2 years (SD = 1.2). Vaginal delivery was significantly associated with later age at AR compared to cesarean section (p = 0.035). Socioeconomic status at ages 2 to 5 showed positive association with delayed AR. Higher monthly family income (≥₱19,000) at ages 2 to 5 years was significantly associated with delayed age at AR. Other baseline childhood and parental factors showed no significant correlation with age at AR.
CONCLUSIONThese results highlight the complex and context-dependent nature of AR, emphasizing the need for further studies to better understand and mitigate early obesity risk in Filipino children.
Human ; Young Adult: 19-24 Yrs Old ; Universities ; Regression (psychology) ; Hospital Records ; Gestational Age ; Body Mass Index ; Obesity, Maternal
2.Health-related quality of life in Singapore: Population norms for the EQ-5D-5L and EORTC QLQ-C30.
Jaclyn TAN ; Mervyn Jr LIM ; Ravindran KANESVARAN ; Richard NORMAN ; Wen Yee CHAY ; Mohamad Farid Bin HARUNAL RASHID ; Mihir GANDHI ; Madeleine KING ; Nan LUO
Annals of the Academy of Medicine, Singapore 2025;54(3):147-159
INTRODUCTION:
Comparison of patient health-related quality of life (HRQOL) scores to a reference group is needed to quantify the HRQOL impact of disease or treatment. This study aimed to establish population norms for 2 HRQOL questionnaires-EuroQol 5-dimension 5-level questionnaire (EQ-5D-5L) and European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire-Core Question-naire 30 (EORTC QLQ-C30) according to age, sex and ethnicity-and to explore relationships between the EQ-5D-5L, EORTC QLQ-C30 and sociodemographic characteristics. We used a representative sample of adult Singapore residents aged 21 years and above.
METHOD:
This study used data collected from a cross-sectional household survey in which 600 adult Singaporeans completed questions on sociodemo-graphic characteristics-the EQ-5D-5L and the EORTC QLQ-C30. Multiple linear regression analyses were conducted to explore associations between sociodemographic characteristics, the EQ-5D-5L scores and the EORTC QLQ-C30 scores. Regression-based population norms were computed for each subgroup using a post-stratification method.
RESULTS:
In multiple linear regression analysis, age was significantly associated with EQ-5D-5L index and visual analogue scale (VAS) scores, while no sociodemographic characteristics were significantly associated with EORTC QLQ-C30 summary scores. The normative EQ-5D-5L index and VAS scores decreased in adults aged 65 years and above, and EQ-5D-5L index scores were slightly lower in females than males and in non-Chinese than Chinese. The normative EORTC QLQ-C30 summary scores were slightly higher in Chinese than in the non-Chinese group and in the 45-64 age group than other age groups.
CONCLUSION
This study provides population norms for the EQ-5D-5L and EORTC QLQ-C30 for the general adult population in Singapore. Future studies of patient populations in Singapore using EQ-5D-5L or QLQ-C30 can use these normative data to interpret the HRQOL data collected.
Humans
;
Quality of Life
;
Singapore
;
Male
;
Female
;
Middle Aged
;
Adult
;
Cross-Sectional Studies
;
Aged
;
Surveys and Questionnaires
;
Young Adult
;
Health Status
;
Age Factors
;
Linear Models
;
Aged, 80 and over
3.Preterm birth trends and risk factors in a multi-ethnic Asian population: A retrospective study from 2017 to 2023, can we screen and predict this?
Rachel Phoy Cheng CHUN ; Hiu Gwan CHAN ; Gilbert Yong San LIM ; Devendra KANAGALINGAM ; Pamela PARTANA ; Kok Hian TAN ; Tiong Ghee TEOH ; Ilka TAN
Annals of the Academy of Medicine, Singapore 2025;54(5):296-304
INTRODUCTION:
Preterm birth (PTB) remains a leading cause of perinatal morbidity and mortality worldwide. Understanding Singapore's PTB trends and associated risk factors can inform effective strategies for screening and intervention. This study analyses PTB trends in Singapore from 2017 to 2023, identifies risk factors in this multi-ethnic population and evaluates a predictive model for PTB.
METHOD:
A retrospective analysis of all PTBs between 22+0 and 36+6 weeks of gestation, from 1 January 2017 to 31 December 2023, was performed by extracting maternal and neonatal data from electronic medical records. These PTBs were taken from the registry of births for Singapore and SingHealth cluster data. Cochran- Armitage trend test and multinomial logistic regression were used. An extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) model was developed to test and predict the risk of PTB.
RESULTS:
The PTB rate in Singapore did not show a significant change. However, there was modest downward trend in the SingHealth population from 11.3% to 10.2%, mainly in late spontaneous PTBs (sPTBs). sPTBs accounted for ∼60% of PTBs. Risk factors for very/extreme sPTB included Chinese ethnicity, age ≥35 years, body mass index (BMI) ≥23 kg/m2, being unmarried, primiparity, twin pregnancy and maternal blood group AB. The XGBoost model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.75, indicating moderate ability to predict PTB.
CONCLUSION
The overall PTB rate in Singapore has not improved. This study underscores the importance of local factors, particularly advanced maternal age, BMI, primiparity, unmarried, Chinese ethnicity and maternal blood group AB influencing PTB risk. Artificial intelligence methods show promise in improving PTB risk stratification, ultimately supporting personalised care and intervention.
Humans
;
Singapore/epidemiology*
;
Retrospective Studies
;
Female
;
Risk Factors
;
Premature Birth/ethnology*
;
Pregnancy
;
Adult
;
Infant, Newborn
;
Asian People/statistics & numerical data*
;
Gestational Age
;
Body Mass Index
;
Maternal Age
;
Logistic Models
;
Ethnicity
4.Childhood-onset Takayasu arteritis: Unique characteristics and outcomes from a Singapore cohort.
Amanda Xin Yi YAP ; Junjie HUANG ; Kai Liang TEH ; Lena DAS ; Yun Xin BOOK ; Sook Fun HOH ; Xiaocong GAO ; Thaschawee ARKACHAISRI
Annals of the Academy of Medicine, Singapore 2025;54(9):531-541
INTRODUCTION:
Takayasu arteritis is the most common large-vessel vasculitis in childhood, but there is a lack of literature regarding childhood-onset Takayasu arteritis (c-TAK) in Southeast Asia. We aim to describe a c-TAK cohort in Singapore and highlight a unique subset that first presents with Kawasaki-like disease (KD).
METHOD:
A single-centre cohort study in Singapore of consecutive children diagnosed with c-TAK between 2002 and 2023 was performed. Demographic and clinical features, laboratory and angiographic findings, treatment, and outcomes were summarised. Disease activity was evaluated using the Paediatric Vasculitis Disease Activity Score and inflammatory markers.
RESULTS:
Twenty-three patients, fulfilling both the EULAR/ PRINTO/PReS and ACR/EULAR 2022 criteria, were recruited. The most common clinical features at diagnosis were fever (15, 65%) and neurological symptoms (11, 48%, half of which presented with stroke), while the most prevalent angiographic pattern by Hata's classification was Type V (21, 91%). Eight children (35%) initially presented with refractory KD, and these patients were significantly younger, more male-predominant, and had higher inflammatory markers at diagnosis; all of them had coronary artery involvement, but none had intracranial vascular findings. Of the entire cohort, 16 (70%) achieved inactive disease on medications with a median duration of 6 months (interquartile range [IQR]: 4-11), and 8 (35%) achieved remission off medications with a median duration of 43 months (IQR 35-60).
CONCLUSION
Our c-TAK cohort has high proportions of neurological involvement and stroke. This is also the first cohort study to describe a distinct group of patients who first presented with refractory KD.
Humans
;
Takayasu Arteritis/complications*
;
Singapore/epidemiology*
;
Male
;
Female
;
Child
;
Adolescent
;
Age of Onset
;
Mucocutaneous Lymph Node Syndrome/diagnosis*
;
Cohort Studies
;
Child, Preschool
;
Fever/etiology*
;
Stroke/epidemiology*
;
Retrospective Studies
5.Analysis of demographic and clinical characteristics of 744 inpatients with osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures.
Bo ZHANG ; Wenlong MA ; Weihua FENG ; Yanjin WANG ; Hanjie ZHUO ; Yihang QIAO ; Haobo LIANG ; Zhenjie ZHAO
Chinese Journal of Reparative and Reconstructive Surgery 2025;39(3):354-361
OBJECTIVE:
To analyze the demographic and clinical characteristics of inpatients with osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures (OVCF) and provide a basis for clinical prevention and treatment.
METHODS:
A retrospective analysis was performed on the clinical data of 744 inpatients diagnosed with OVCF between January 2017 and December 2021 who met the inclusion criteria. Among them, 146 were male and 598 were female, with age ranging from 50 to 95 years (mean, 69.37 years). The demographic characteristics (gender, age, ethnicity, occupation, regional distribution, urban-rural distribution, and seasonal incidence) and clinical features [causes of injury, history of vertebral fractures, smoking and drinking history in males, comorbidities (hypertension, diabetes, coronary atherosclerotic heart disease, cerebral infarction), body mass index (BMI), blood lipid levels, menopausal age in females, vertebral bone mineral density T-value, number of vertebral fractures, and fracture segment distribution] of OVCF patients were analyzed. Multiple linear regression was used to analyze the independent risk factors of vertebral osteoporosis.
RESULTS:
The demographic analysis indicated that female patients with OVCF were significantly younger than male patients ( P<0.05). Significant differences were observed in the age distribution of OVCF between males and females ( P<0.05), with the highest proportion of male patients in the 70-79 years group (37.0%) and the highest proportion of female patients in the 60-69 years group (40.0%). From 2017 to 2021, the age of onset for OVCF gradually increased, with a similar trend observed for both genders. The distribution of occupations between genders also showed significant differences ( P<0.05); with the top three occupations for males being farmers (48.6%), retirees (24.7%), and workers (13.7%), while for females, the leading occupations were farmers (51.5%), retirees (19.4%), and service workers (10.0%). Female OVCF patients had higher BMI, vertebral bone mineral density T-value, history of vertebral fractures, hypertension prevalence, and blood lipid levels compared to male patients ( P<0.05). No significant difference between the males and the females was found in ethnicity, seasonal distribution, regional distribution, urban-rural distribution, causes of injury, number of vertebral fractures, or prevalence of comorbidities (except hypertension) ( P>0.05). Among the 744 OVCF patients, a total of 1 309 vertebrae were involved, with 628 thoracic vertebrae (48.0%) and 681 lumbar vertebrae (52.0%). The most common fracture segments were L 1 (22.5%), T 12 (21.2%), followed by L 2 (12.2%) and T 11 (10.2%). No significant gender difference was observed in the distribution of fracture segments ( P>0.05). Multiple linear regression analysis indicated that older age, female, and lower BMI were independent risk factors for vertebral osteoporosis ( P<0.05).
CONCLUSION
The age of onset of OVCF patients is increasing year by year. The number of fractured vertebral bodies, age distribution of morbidity, occupational distribution, BMI, history of vertebral fracture, hypertension, and blood lipid levels are related to gender. The occurrence of OVCF is mainly in the thoracolumbar segment. The female, older age, and lower BMI are independent risk factors of osteoporosis.
Humans
;
Male
;
Female
;
Aged
;
Middle Aged
;
Retrospective Studies
;
Spinal Fractures/etiology*
;
Aged, 80 and over
;
Osteoporotic Fractures/etiology*
;
Fractures, Compression/etiology*
;
Risk Factors
;
Bone Density
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Osteoporosis/epidemiology*
;
Comorbidity
;
Inpatients
;
Sex Factors
;
Age Factors
6.Analysis of current status and trends of disease burden of knee osteoarthritis in China, 1990-2023.
Jie LIAO ; Qiongyao WU ; Gonghua WU ; Bing GUO ; Juying ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Reparative and Reconstructive Surgery 2025;39(11):1381-1387
OBJECTIVE:
To analyze the current status and trends of the disease burden of knee osteoarthritis (KOA) in China from 1990 to 2023, and to examine the epidemiological characteristics of age, gender differences, and attribution to high body mass index (BMI), in order to provide a basis for formulating prevention and treatment strategies to reduce the disease burden of KOA in China.
METHODS:
Based on the 2023 Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) database, data on the number, rate, and age-standardized rate of incidence, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for KOA, and DALYs for KOA attributable to high BMI in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2023 were integrated. The Joinpoint 5.4.0.0 software was used to analyze the age and gender differences in KOA and the epidemiological characteristics attributable to high BMI.
RESULTS:
The standardized incidence, prevalence, and DALYs rates of KOA in China in 2023 increased by 6.46%, 6.43%, and 6.93%, respectively, compared with 1990. In terms of age, the disease burden of KOA in China was lowest in the age group of 30-34 years, with the highest incidence rate in the age group of 50-54 years, whereas the prevalence rate and DALYs rate continued to increase with age, and both were highest in the age group of ≥70 years. In terms of gender, all disease burden standardized rate indicators were higher in females than in males, and the difference widened with age. The rate of BMI-attributable DALYs increased at an annual average rate of 1.57% (95% CI: 1.55, 1.59) from 1990 to 2023, again with significant age and gender differences.
CONCLUSION
The continued growth of the KOA disease burden and significant population differences characterizing China call for focused attention on the female middle-aged and elderly population, enhanced weight management, and implementation of targeted preventive and control measures.
Humans
;
Osteoarthritis, Knee/epidemiology*
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Male
;
Female
;
Middle Aged
;
Incidence
;
Aged
;
Adult
;
Prevalence
;
Body Mass Index
;
Disability-Adjusted Life Years
;
Cost of Illness
;
Aged, 80 and over
;
Sex Factors
;
Global Burden of Disease
;
Age Factors
;
Young Adult
;
Quality-Adjusted Life Years
7.The Predictive Value of Age, D-Dimer, and FIB in Non-Thrombotic Diseases.
Zhao-Bing LUO ; Chao-Zan NONG ; Li-Bing HUANG ; Bai-Hui WEN
Journal of Experimental Hematology 2025;33(3):858-862
OBJECTIVE:
To explore the predictive value of age, D-Dimer and fibrinogen (FIB) for non-thrombotic.
METHODS:
A retrospective analysis was conducted on a total of 1 384 coagulation test cases from January to August 2024 at Nanning No. 8 People's Hospital. Among them, the control group comprised 400 non-thrombotic cases with D-Dimer test results within the reference range. The thrombotic group comprised 57 clinically diagnosed thrombotic patients. The research group comprised 927 non-thrombotic cases with D-Dimer levels exceeding the reference range. The diagnosis treatment records, age information, plasma D-Dimer, and FIB test results of each group were collected. The changes and correlations of age, D-Dimer, and FIB indicators were compared and analyzed among the three groups. A new combination factor was generated by fitting a Logistic binary regression model. ROC curves were used to evaluate the predictive value of each index for non-thrombotic disease in both the research group and the thrombotic group.
RESULTS:
Compared with the control group, the thrombotic group and the research group had significantly higher age, D-Dimer, and FIB levels (P < 0.001). Further comparative analysis showed that the research group had significantly lower age and D-Dimer levels than the thrombotic group, the FIB level was significantly higher than that of the thrombotic group (P < 0.001). Spearman correlation analysis showed that the correlation coefficient between age and D-Dimer in the research group was higher than that in the control group and thrombotic group (P < 0.01), the thrombotic group had the highest negative correlation coefficient between FIB and D-Dimer (P < 0.01). The ROC curve analysis results showed that the AUC values of age, plasma D-dimer, and FIB independently predicted non-thromb diseases were 0.726, 0.735, and 0.611, respectively. A new combined factor was generated by fitting age, D-dimer, and FIB with a logistic binary regression model. The AUC value of the combined prediction of non-thrombotic diseases was the maximum at 0.832, which had high diagnostic value, and its sensitivity and specificity were 0.572 and 0.070.
CONCLUSION
Elevated D-dimer levels were associated with age, increased FIB, and a variety of non-thrombotic diseases, and combination of age, D-dimer, and FIB had a certain predictive value for non-thrombotic diseases, but the combined model had a low specificity, other information needs to be combined in the clinic to improve diagnostic accuracy.
Humans
;
Fibrin Fibrinogen Degradation Products
;
Retrospective Studies
;
Fibrinogen
;
Predictive Value of Tests
;
Thrombosis
;
Age Factors
;
ROC Curve
;
Male
;
Female
;
Middle Aged
;
Adult
8.Bathing-related accidents requiring ambulance dispatches in relation to age and ambient temperature in Nagoya, Japan: differences between detached houses and apartment buildings.
Akihiko NARISADA ; Tomohiro UMEMURA ; Nauta YAMANAKA ; Kohta SUZUKI
Environmental Health and Preventive Medicine 2025;30():72-72
BACKGROUND:
Previous studies have shown that old age and cold temperatures are risk factors for bathing-related accidents (BRAs) in Japan. The differences between outdoor and indoor temperatures are believed to depend on the housing type (detached houses or apartment buildings). This study aimed to investigate the associations between age, temperature, and BRAs according to housing type in Japan.
METHODS:
We included cases in which patients were transported by ambulance from domestic bathrooms between April 2016 and March 2022 in Nagoya city. Age-specific BRA incidence rates measured by 5-year age groups, temperature-specific age-adjusted standardized incidence rates (SIRs) for BRA calculated by temperature quintile groups, and the BRA risk regarding temperature based on a time-stratified case-crossover (CCO) design were compared between detached houses and apartment buildings.
RESULTS:
We observed 4,848 ambulance dispatches owing to BRAs (3,083 in detached houses and 1,765 in apartment buildings; SIR for detached houses compared to apartment buildings: 1.37; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.33-1.43). The ratio of detached houses to apartment buildings in the age-specific BRA incidence was almost the same in middle-aged people, but it significantly increased from the age of 70 years onward (incidence rate ratio for the 70-74-years age group: 1.74; 95% CI: 1.43-2.11). Temperature-specific SIR for detached houses compared to apartment buildings was not significantly different in the hottest temperature quintile but increased significantly in the other colder temperature quintiles (SIR in coldest quintile: 1.56; 95% CI: 1.47-1.66). BRA risk based on CCO design increased significantly with a decrease in temperature in detached houses (risk ratio [RR] for 3 °C: 1.25; 95% CI: 1.05-1.47), but not in apartment buildings (RR for 3 °C: 1.07; 95% CI: 0.86-1.34).
CONCLUSIONS
Detached houses had higher BRA incidence rates than apartments. Older age and lower temperatures, which are risk factors for BRAs, were more prevalent in detached houses than in apartment buildings. Thus, public health measures that focus on detached houses are necessary for preventing BRAs in Japan.
Humans
;
Japan/epidemiology*
;
Aged
;
Middle Aged
;
Housing/statistics & numerical data*
;
Baths/adverse effects*
;
Ambulances/statistics & numerical data*
;
Male
;
Adult
;
Female
;
Temperature
;
Incidence
;
Aged, 80 and over
;
Young Adult
;
Age Factors
;
Adolescent
;
Child, Preschool
;
Infant
;
Child
;
Risk Factors
;
Infant, Newborn
;
Accidents, Home/statistics & numerical data*
9.Changes in inflammatory composite markers and D-dimer levels in young and middle-aged/elderly patients with hypertriglyceridemic acute pancreatitis and their predictive value for disease progression.
Jing LI ; Jinrong HU ; Yuanyuan GOU ; Long YAO ; Jie CAO
Journal of Central South University(Medical Sciences) 2025;50(2):215-226
OBJECTIVES:
Hypertriglyceridemic acute pancreatitis (HTG-AP) has a rapid onset and is associated with a high risk of progression and recurrence. Early identification of patients at risk of severe disease can help reduce the likelihood of multiple organ failure and mortality. This study aims to investigate the changes in inflammatory composite markers and D-dimer (D-D) levels in young and middle-aged/elderly patients with HTG-AP and to evaluate their predictive value for disease progression.
METHODS:
A total of 230 patients with HTG-AP admitted to Chongqing University Jiangjin Hospital (Jiangjin Central Hospital) between 2017 and 2023 were retrospectively enrolled. Patients were first divided into a young group (≤45 years) and a middle-aged/elderly group (>45 years), and then stratified into mild and severe groups based on disease severity. Inflammatory composite markers, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (MLR), C-reactive protein-to-lymphocyte ratio (CLR), systemic inflammation response index (SIRI), systemic immune inflammation index (SII), as well as D-D levels, were compared among groups. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and Logistic regression were used to identify independent risk factors for disease progression in each age group. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the DeLong test were used to assess and compare the predictive performance (area under the curve, AUC) of risk factors. Internal validation was performed using the bootstrap method (n=1 000).
RESULTS:
No significant differences in NLR, PLR, MLR, SIRI, SII, CLR, or D-D levels were observed between the young (n=127) and middle-aged/elderly (n=103) groups (all P>0.05). Among young patients, the severe group (n=59) had significantly higher NLR, SIRI, SII, CLR, and D-D levels compared to the mild group (n=68) (all P<0.05). Among middle-aged/elderly patients, CLR and D-D levels were significantly higher in the severe group (n=49) than in the mild group (n=54) (P<0.05). LASSO and Logistic regression analyses identified elevated D-D as an independent risk factor for disease progression in young patients (P=0.007, OR=1.458, 95% CI 1.107 to 1.920), while both D-D (P=0.001, OR=2.267, 95% CI 1.413 to 3.637) and CLR (P=0.003, OR=1.007, 95% CI 1.003 to 1.012) were independent risk factors in middle-aged/elderly patients. ROC analysis showed that D-D predicted disease progression in young and middle-aged/elderly patients with AUCs of 0.653 and 0.741, sensitivities of 67.8% and 57.1%, and specificities of 72.1% and 88.9%, respectively. CLR predicted progression in middle-aged/elderly patients with an AUC of 0.687, sensitivity of 63.3%, and specificity of 70.4%. DeLong test showed no significant difference in AUC between D-D and CLR for middle-aged/elderly patients (Z=0.993, P=0.321). Internal validation via bootstrap analysis yielded a D-D AUC of 0.732, with sensitivity and specificity of 68.1% and 91.0%, respectively.
CONCLUSIONS
Differences in inflammatory response and coagulation function exist across age groups and disease severities in HTG-AP patients. Elevated D-D is an independent predictor of disease progression in both young and middle-aged/elderly patients, while CLR also predicts progression in the latter group. D-D, in particular, demonstrates strong predictive value for severe disease in middle-aged/elderly patients with HTG-AP.
Humans
;
Fibrin Fibrinogen Degradation Products/metabolism*
;
Disease Progression
;
Middle Aged
;
Pancreatitis/etiology*
;
Male
;
Female
;
Retrospective Studies
;
Adult
;
Biomarkers/blood*
;
Hypertriglyceridemia/blood*
;
Acute Disease
;
Predictive Value of Tests
;
Aged
;
Inflammation
;
C-Reactive Protein/analysis*
;
Neutrophils
;
Age Factors
10.Trends in the incidence and mortality of rheumatoid arthritis in China from 1990 to 2021: An age-period-cohort analysis.
Xuewei DOU ; Wenfei CUI ; Zhenzhen HAN ; Zhiying CHE ; Xiaobing LI ; Hongtao GUO
Journal of Central South University(Medical Sciences) 2025;50(7):1214-1223
OBJECTIVES:
Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) imposes a heavy burden on individuals, families, and society. This study analyzed the incidence and mortality trends of RA in China from 1990 to 2023 to provide epidemiological evidence for precise prevention and control.
METHODS:
Data on RA incidence, age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), deaths, and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) in China by sex and age group from 1900 to 2021 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database. Joinpoint regression was used to analyze trends in ASIR and ASMR. An age-period-cohort model was constructed using R4.3.1 to evaluate longitudinal age trends and estimate relative risk (RR) values for period and cohort effects.
RESULTS:
In 2021, the number of RA cases, ASIR, deaths, and ASMR in China were 247 300, 13.70 per 100 000, 10 300, and 0.54 per 100 000, respectively. From 1990 to 2021, the ASIR of RA increased annually among both females and males, with average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) of 0.44% and 0.72%, respectively. Over the same period, ASMR declined in the total population and among females, with AAPCs of -0.78% and -1.19%, while the change in males was not statistically significant. Age-period-cohort analysis showed that the peak incidence occurred in women aged 60-64 years and men aged 75-79 years, and mortality increased with age. The period effect for incidence rose in both sexes, reaching 1.10 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.94 to 1.27] for females and 1.14 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.27) for males during 2017 to 2021, compared with 2002 to 2006. The mortality period effect RR exhibited a downward-upward-downward pattern, decreasing to 0.56 (95% CI 0.52 to 0.61) in females and 0.75 (95% CI 0.68 to 0.82) in males in 2017 to 2021. Cohort analysis indicated that the highest incidence risk occurred in individuals born during 2012 to 2016, while the cohort effect RR for female RA mortality showed a continuous decline beginning with the 1922 to 1926 birth cohort.
CONCLUSIONS
The incidence and mortality risks of RA in China have continued to decline. However, with the aging of the population, the incidence and mortality risks among the elderly have increased. Middle-aged women and elderly men should receive focused attention. Health authorities should strengthen education, prevention, and screening among middle-aged women and enhance disease monitoring in elderly populations to reduce the national burden of RA.
Humans
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Arthritis, Rheumatoid/epidemiology*
;
Incidence
;
Male
;
Female
;
Middle Aged
;
Adult
;
Aged
;
Cohort Studies
;
Mortality/trends*
;
Age Distribution
;
Age Factors
;
Aged, 80 and over
;
Adolescent


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