Introduction: Severe hypertriglyceridemia during pregnancy is a rare yet potentially life-threatening disorder. It is frequently linked to acute pancreatitis and poses considerable risks for both maternal and fetal morbidity. Case: We report a 35-year-old G4P3 female at 33 + 6 weeks gestation with underlying type 2 diabetes mellitus who presented with acute abdominal pain, nausea, vomiting, and poor oral intake, initially mistaken for preterm labor and sepsis. Further evaluation revealed profound hypertriglyceridemia (triglycerides 79.1 mmol/L) with markedly elevated total cholesterol (>32 mmol/L) and raised serum amylase, consistent with hypertriglyceridemia-induced acute pancreatitis. She was managed in a multidisciplinary setting with intravenous insulin infusion, dextrose supplementation, aggressive fluid resuscitation, and empiric antibiotics. Due to clinical deterioration and ongoing risk of maternal complications, she underwent emergency lower segment caesarean section and exploratory laparotomy at 34 weeks of gestation. Intraoperative findings included inflammatory intra-abdominal fluid and a bulky pancreas, supporting the diagnosis. Rapid biochemical improvement was observed following treatment, with triglyceride levels decreasing by approximately 70% within 24 hours (79.1– 24.0 mmol/L) and achieving >90% reduction over 10 days. Postpartum management included initiation of omega-3 fatty acids, fibrate, and statin therapy, resulting in sustained lipid control. Ophthalmologic examination demonstrated lipemia retinalis, further confirming severe dyslipidemia. Conclusion This case highlights the importance of early recognition of severe hypertriglyceridemia in pregnancy, particularly in patients with metabolic risk factors such as diabetes. Prompt initiation of insulin therapy can achieve rapid triglyceride reduction and may obviate the need for plasmapheresis in selected cases. Delivery should be considered in the setting of maternal instability. Long-term lipid management postpartum is essential for preventing recurrence and reducing future metabolic risk. A multidisciplinary approach remains critical in optimizing both maternal and fetal outcomes in this rare but serious condition.
Female ; Pregnancy ; Acute Disease ; Pancreatitis

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the current status of long-term quality of life in patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) who have been cured and discharged, and to analyze the influencing factors affecting long-term quality of life in SAP cured patients after discharge. METHODS: A retrospective collection was conducted. Patients who were received standardized treatment before being cured and discharged from the hospital admitted to the first department of critical care medcine of the Second Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University from January 2017 to December 2023 were enrolled. According to the 36-item short form health survey scale (SF-36) score, patients were divided into high score group (high quality of life, the top 50% of patients with total SF-36 score) and low score group (low quality of life, the bottom 50% of patients with total SF-36 score). The gender, age, history of hypertension and diabetes, etiology of pancreatitis, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II), sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), CT severity index (CTSI), laboratory indicators such as C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), blood glucose, and triglycerides upon admission, use of vasoactive drugs, non-invasive/high-flow ventilation, invasive ventilation, retroperitoneal puncture and drainage, open pancreatic surgery treatment and secondary infection during hospitalization were collected, as well as the retention of abdominal drainage tubes at discharge from hospital. Distribute follow-up questionnaires or telephone follow-up surveys through WeChat and Question Star programs to investigate the pancreatic secretion function, chronic abdominal pain, and recurrence of pancreatitis of patients after discharge. Multivariable Logistic regression was used to analyze the relevant factors affecting the long-term quality of life of cured patients with SAP. RESULTS: A total of 86 patients were ultimately enrolled. There were 43 patients in both the high and low score groups. Among 86 patients, 20 experienced acute pancreatitis recurrence, with a recurrence rate of 23.26%. Twenty-two (25.58%) experienced chronic abdominal pain after discharge, and 5 patients (5.81%) needed medication to relieve pain. Thirty-three patients (38.37%) had pancreatic exocrine dysfunction after discharge, characterized by abdominal distension, constipation or diarrhea. Twenty-two patients (25.58%) suffered from pancreatic endocrine dysfunction, and were diagnosed with diabetes. Univariate analysis showed that compared with the high score group, the low score group had more patients with hypertension, initial renal dysfunction, initial severe metabolic acidosis, initial serum calcium < 2.0 mmol/L, blood glucose > 11.1 mmol/L and cultured Gram positive bacteria (from blood/body fluid/pancreatic necrotic tissue) during treatment (48.84% vs. 16.28%, 60.47% vs. 32.56%, 18.60% vs. 4.65%, 88.37% vs. 62.79%, 55.81% vs. 30.23%, 34.88% vs. 13.95%), had higher CTSI score (6.60±1.61 vs. 5.77±1.32), lower hemoglobin level at discharge (g/L: 102.30±18.78 vs. 110.72±16.68), and a lower proportion of etiological interventions after discharge (34.88% vs. 67.44%), the differences were statistically significant (all P < 0.05). Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that hypertension [odds ratio (OR) = 4.814, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 1.196-19.378], initial serum calcium < 2.0 mmol/L (OR = 6.688, 95%CI was 1.321-33.873) and initial blood glucose > 11.1 mmol/L (OR = 6.473, 95%CI was 1.399-29.950) were risk factors for long-term quality of life in cured SAP patients (all P < 0.05), while post discharge prophylactic intervention was a protective factor for long-term quality of life (OR = 0.092, 95%CI was 0.020-0.425, P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS Cured SAP patients have varying degrees of impaired secretion function and the possibility of recurrence of acute pancreatitis. Hypertension, initial serum calcium < 2.0 mmol/L and blood glucose > 11.1 mmol/L are independent influencing factors for low long-term quality of life in cured SAP patients. Prevention and intervention targeting the etiology of pancreatitis after discharge can improve the long-term quality of life of cured SAP patients.
Humans ; Quality of Life ; Retrospective Studies ; Pancreatitis/therapy* ; Patient Discharge ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; APACHE ; Adult ; Acute Disease ; Aged

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a severe inflammatory disease characterized by self-digestion of pancreatic tissue and inflammatory responses. Recent studies have revealed a close connection between gut microbiota and AP. The gut microbiota community, a complex ecosystem composed of trillions of microorganisms, is closely associated with various physiological activities of the host, including metabolic processes, immune system regulation, and intestinal structure maintenance. However, in patients with AP, dysbiosis of the gut microbiota are believed to play a key role in the occurrence and progression of the disease. This dysbiosis not only impairs the integrity of the intestinal barrier, but may also exacerbate inflammatory responses through multiple mechanisms, thereby affecting the severity of the disease and patient' clinical prognosis. This article reviews the mechanisms of action of gut microbiota in AP, explores how gut microbiota dysbiosis affects disease progression, and evaluates current clinical treatment methods to regulate intestinal flora, including probiotic supplementation, fecal microbiota transplantation, antibiotic therapy, and early enteral nutrition. In addition, this article discusses the efficacy and safety of the aforementioned therapeutic approaches, and outlines future research directions, aiming to provide novel perspectives and strategies for the diagnosis, treatment and prognostic evaluation of AP. Through in-depth understanding the interaction between gut microbiota and AP, it is expected that more precise and personalized therapeutic regimens will be developed to improve patients' quality of life and clinical outcomes.
Humans ; Gastrointestinal Microbiome ; Dysbiosis ; Pancreatitis/microbiology* ; Fecal Microbiota Transplantation ; Probiotics/therapeutic use* ; Acute Disease ; Anti-Bacterial Agents/therapeutic use* ; Enteral Nutrition

OBJECTIVES: Hypertriglyceridemic acute pancreatitis (HTG-AP) has a rapid onset and is associated with a high risk of progression and recurrence. Early identification of patients at risk of severe disease can help reduce the likelihood of multiple organ failure and mortality. This study aims to investigate the changes in inflammatory composite markers and D-dimer (D-D) levels in young and middle-aged/elderly patients with HTG-AP and to evaluate their predictive value for disease progression. METHODS: A total of 230 patients with HTG-AP admitted to Chongqing University Jiangjin Hospital (Jiangjin Central Hospital) between 2017 and 2023 were retrospectively enrolled. Patients were first divided into a young group (≤45 years) and a middle-aged/elderly group (>45 years), and then stratified into mild and severe groups based on disease severity. Inflammatory composite markers, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (MLR), C-reactive protein-to-lymphocyte ratio (CLR), systemic inflammation response index (SIRI), systemic immune inflammation index (SII), as well as D-D levels, were compared among groups. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and Logistic regression were used to identify independent risk factors for disease progression in each age group. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the DeLong test were used to assess and compare the predictive performance (area under the curve, AUC) of risk factors. Internal validation was performed using the bootstrap method (n=1 000). RESULTS: No significant differences in NLR, PLR, MLR, SIRI, SII, CLR, or D-D levels were observed between the young (n=127) and middle-aged/elderly (n=103) groups (all P>0.05). Among young patients, the severe group (n=59) had significantly higher NLR, SIRI, SII, CLR, and D-D levels compared to the mild group (n=68) (all P<0.05). Among middle-aged/elderly patients, CLR and D-D levels were significantly higher in the severe group (n=49) than in the mild group (n=54) (P<0.05). LASSO and Logistic regression analyses identified elevated D-D as an independent risk factor for disease progression in young patients (P=0.007, OR=1.458, 95% CI 1.107 to 1.920), while both D-D (P=0.001, OR=2.267, 95% CI 1.413 to 3.637) and CLR (P=0.003, OR=1.007, 95% CI 1.003 to 1.012) were independent risk factors in middle-aged/elderly patients. ROC analysis showed that D-D predicted disease progression in young and middle-aged/elderly patients with AUCs of 0.653 and 0.741, sensitivities of 67.8% and 57.1%, and specificities of 72.1% and 88.9%, respectively. CLR predicted progression in middle-aged/elderly patients with an AUC of 0.687, sensitivity of 63.3%, and specificity of 70.4%. DeLong test showed no significant difference in AUC between D-D and CLR for middle-aged/elderly patients (Z=0.993, P=0.321). Internal validation via bootstrap analysis yielded a D-D AUC of 0.732, with sensitivity and specificity of 68.1% and 91.0%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Differences in inflammatory response and coagulation function exist across age groups and disease severities in HTG-AP patients. Elevated D-D is an independent predictor of disease progression in both young and middle-aged/elderly patients, while CLR also predicts progression in the latter group. D-D, in particular, demonstrates strong predictive value for severe disease in middle-aged/elderly patients with HTG-AP.
Humans ; Fibrin Fibrinogen Degradation Products/metabolism* ; Disease Progression ; Middle Aged ; Pancreatitis/etiology* ; Male ; Female ; Retrospective Studies ; Adult ; Biomarkers/blood* ; Hypertriglyceridemia/blood* ; Acute Disease ; Predictive Value of Tests ; Aged ; Inflammation ; C-Reactive Protein/analysis* ; Neutrophils ; Age Factors

OBJECTIVE: To observe the therapeutic effect of electroacupuncture (EA) in improving early enteral nutrition tolerance in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) under the concept of accelerated rehabilitation, and to explore the related mechanism based on the changes in autonomic nerve characteristics. METHODS: A total of 42 patients with AP were randomized into an observation group (21 cases, 1 case dropped out) and a control group (21 cases, 1 case dropped out). The control group received standard basic treatment for AP. On the basis of the treatment in the control group, EA was applied in the observation group, bilateral Zusanli (ST36), Yixian point (Extra), Tianshu (ST25), Neiguan (PC6) and Zhongwan (CV12) were selected as the main points, and the supplementary points were selected according to syndrome differentiation. Ipsilateral Zusanli (ST36) and Yixian point (Extra) were connected to EA, using discontinuous wave, in frequency of 2 Hz, 30 min a time, once a day for 6 continuous days. The enteral nutrition tolerance score was observed before treatment and after 3 and 5 days of treatment; the visual analogue scale (VAS) score for abdominal pain was observed before treatment and after 3 days of treatment; the time of reaching the feeding goal and hospital stay was recorded; the levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) and amylase were measured before treatment and after 5 days of treatment; the heart rate variability (HRV) indexes (standard deviation of NN intervals [SDNN], average standard deviation of NN intervals [SDANN], root mean square of successive NN interval differences [rMSSD], low frequency [LF] and high frequency [HF], ratio of low frequency to high frequency [LF/HF]) were monitored in the two groups. RESULTS: After 3 and 5 days of treatment, the enteral nutrition tolerance scores were decreased compared with those before treatment in both groups (P<0.01), the reductions in the observation group were larger than those in the control group (P<0.01). After 3 days of treatment, the VAS scores for abdominal pain were decreased compared with those before treatment in both groups (P<0.01), the reduction in the observation group was larger than that in the control group (P<0.01). The time of reaching the feeding goal and hospital stay in the observation group was shorter than that in the control group (P<0.05). After 5 days of treatment, the CRP and amylase levels were decreased compared with those before treatment in both groups (P<0.01), the reduction of CRP level in the observation group was larger than that in the control group (P<0.01). In the observation group, SDNN, SDANN and LF/HF were lower than those in the control group (P<0.05, P<0.01), while rMSSD was higher than that in the control group (P<0.01). SDNN, SDANN and LF/HF were positively correlated with the enteral nutrition tolerance scores after 3 and 5 days of treatment (P<0.05), while rMSSD was negatively correlated with the enteral nutrition tolerance scores after 3 and 5 days of treatment (P<0.01). CONCLUSION Electroacupuncture can improve enteral nutrition tolerance in patients with AP by regulating autonomic nervous function, alleviating the inflammation, promoting accelerated recovery, and reducing the length of hospital stay.
Humans ; Electroacupuncture ; Male ; Female ; Enteral Nutrition ; Middle Aged ; Adult ; Pancreatitis/physiopathology* ; Aged ; Acupuncture Points ; Young Adult ; Acute Disease/therapy* ; Autonomic Pathways/physiopathology*

Humans ; Acute Disease ; Pancreatitis/diagnosis* ; Follow-Up Studies ; Patient Discharge ; Disease Progression

A case of IgG4-related disease presented with a duodenal ulcer to improve the understan-ding of IgG4-related diseases was reported. A 70-year-old male presented with cutaneous pruritus and abdominal pain for four years and blackened stools for two months. Four years ago, the patient went to hospital for cutaneous pruritus and abdominal pain. Serum IgG4 was 3.09 g/L (reference value 0-1.35 g/L), alanine aminotransferase 554 U/L (reference value 9-40 U/L), aspartate aminotransferase 288 U/L (reference value 5-40 U/L), total bilirubin 54.16 μmol/L (reference value 2-21 μmol/L), and direct bilirubin 29.64 μmol/L (reference value 1.7-8.1 μmol/L) were all elevated. The abdominal CT scan and magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography indicated pancreatic swelling, common bile duct stenosis, and secondary obstructive dilation of the biliary system. The patient was diagnosed with IgG4-related disease and treated with prednisone at 40 mg daily. As jaundice and abdominal pain improved, prednisone was gradually reduced to medication discontinuation. Two months ago, the patient developed melena, whose blood routine test showed severe anemia, and gastrointestinal bleeding was diagnosed. The patient came to the emergency department of Beijing Hospital with no improvement after treatment in other hospitals. Gastroscopy revealed a 1.5 cm firm duodenal bulb ulcer. After treatment with omeprazole, the fecal occult blood was still positive. The PET-CT examination was performed, and it revealed no abnormality in the metabolic activity of the duodenal wall, and no neoplastic lesions were found. IgG4-related disease was considered, and the patient was admitted to the Department of Rheumatology and Immunology of Beijing Hospital for further diagnosis and treatment. The patient had a right submandibular gland mass resection history and diabetes mellitus. After the patient was admitted to the hospital, the blood test was reevaluated. The serum IgG4 was elevated at 5.44 g/L (reference value 0.03-2.01 g/L). Enhanced CT of the abdomen showed that the pancreas was mild swelling and was abnormally strengthened, with intrahepatic and extrahepatic bile duct dilation and soft tissue around the superior mesenteric vessels. We pathologically reevaluated and stained biopsy specimens of duodenal bulbs for IgG and IgG4. Immunohistochemical staining revealed remarkable infiltration of IgG4-positive plasma cells into duodenal tissue, the number of IgG4-positive cells was 20-30 cells per high-powered field, and the ratio of IgG4/IgG-positive plasma cells was more than 40%. The patient was treated with intravenous methylprednisolone at 40 mg daily dosage and cyclophosphamide, and then the duodenal ulcer was healed. IgG4 related disease is an immune-medicated rare disease characterized by chronic inflammation and fibrosis. It is a systemic disease that affects nearly every anatomic site of the body, usually involving multiple organs and diverse clinical manifestations. The digestive system manifestations of IgG4-related disease are mostly acute pancreatitis and cholangitis and rarely manifest as gastrointestinal ulcers. This case confirms that IgG4-related disease can present as a duodenal ulcer and is one of the rare causes of duodenal ulcers.
Aged ; Humans ; Male ; Abdominal Pain/drug therapy* ; Acute Disease ; Bilirubin ; Duodenal Ulcer/etiology* ; Immunoglobulin G ; Immunoglobulin G4-Related Disease/diagnosis* ; Pancreatitis/drug therapy* ; Positron Emission Tomography Computed Tomography ; Prednisone/therapeutic use* ; Pruritus/drug therapy*

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the effect of vitamin D binding protein (DBP) gene polymorphism on susceptibility and prognosis of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). METHODS: A prospective study was conducted. Eighty-three patients with SAP who were admitted to the department of general surgery of Tianjin Fifth Central Hospital from March 2018 to March 2021 were selected as the research objects, and 83 healthy people in the same period were selected as controls. Peripheral blood RNA was extracted and reverse transcribed into cDNA, and the genotype and allele frequency of DBP gene rs7041 locus were detected by fluorescence quantitative analyzer. Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium was used to test the genetic balance. On the day of admission, serum C-reactive protein (CRP) level was detected by scattering immunoturbidimetry, serum procalcitonin (PCT) level was detected by electrochemiluminescence, serum DBP level was detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), and neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) was calculated automatically by the instrument. The length of intensive care unit (ICU) stay, the length of hospital stay and prognosis during hospitalization of patients were statistically analyzed. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to screen the influencing factors of SAP occurrence. RESULTS: The results of Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium test showed that the distribution of gene polymorphisms in the two groups of subjects conformed to the law of genetic equilibrium. The frequencies of TT genotype and T allele of DBP gene rs7041 locus in the patients of SAP group were significantly higher than those in the healthy control group [TT genotype: 34.94% (29/83) vs. 9.64% (8/83), T allele: 55.42% (92/166) vs. 38.55% (64/166), both P < 0.01], and the frequency of GT genotype was significantly lower than that in the healthy control group [40.96% (34/83) vs. 57.83% (48/83), P < 0.05]. There was no significant difference in the frequency of GG genotype between the healthy control group and SAP group [32.53% (27/83) vs. 24.10% (20/83), P > 0.05]. Further multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that TT genotype [odds ratio (OR) = 2.831, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 1.582-5.067, P < 0.001] and T allele (OR = 2.533, 95%CI was 1.435-4.472, P < 0.001) of DBP gene rs7041 locus were independent risk factors for SAP in healthy people, while GT genotype was a protective factor for SAP (OR = 0.353, 95%CI was 0.143-0.868, P = 0.041). The levels of CRP, PCT, NLR and DBP in patients with TT genotype of DBP gene rs7041 locus were significantly higher than those in patients with GG/GT genotype on the day of admission in SAP group [CRP (mg/L): 43.25±13.25 vs. 31.86±12.83, PCT (μg/L): 1.53±0.24 vs. 1.21±0.20, NLR: 3.15±0.53 vs. 2.71±0.48, DBP (μg/L): 87.78±19.64 vs. 70.58±18.67, all P < 0.01]. The length of ICU stay in patients with TT genotype of DBP gene rs7041 locus in SAP group was significantly longer than that in patients with GG/GT genotype (days: 11.35±1.58 vs. 9.71±1.35, P < 0.01). The length of hospital stay of patients with TT genotype was longer than that of patients with GG/GT genotype (days: 23.41±3.64 vs. 23.17±3.57), and the in-hospital mortality was higher than that of patients with GG/GT genotype [34.48% (10/29) vs. 29.63% (16/54)], but the difference was not statistically significant (both P > 0.05). CONCLUSIONS The risk of SAP was significantly increased in patients with TT genotype of rs7041 locus of DBP gene, and the mechanism may be related to the increase of DBP expression. And carrying the TT genotype will prolong the ICU hospitalization time of SAP patients, but the effect on prognosis is not obvious.
Humans ; Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide ; Prospective Studies ; Vitamin D-Binding Protein/genetics* ; Acute Disease ; Pancreatitis/genetics* ; Genotype ; Prognosis

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the predictive value of pancreatitis activity scoring system (PASS) combined with Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and C-reactive protein (CRP) for infected pancreatic necrosis (IPN) in patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). METHODS: Clinical data of SAP patients admitted to the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University from January 2020 to January 2023 were retrospectively collected, including basic information, vital signs at admission, first laboratory indexes within 48 hours of admission. The PASS scores at admission and 24, 48 and 72 hours after admission were calculated. According to the diagnostic criteria of IPN, the patients were divided into the non-IPN group and the IPN group, and the independent risk factors of SAP complicating IPN were determined by using univariate analysis and multifactorial Logistic regression. The receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve) was drawn to evaluate the predictive value of NLR, CRP, and PASS score, alone and in combination for IPN in patients with SAP. RESULTS: A total of 149 SAP patients were enrolled, including 102 in the non-IPN group and 47 in the IPN group. The differences in PASS score at each time point, NLR, CRP, procalcitonin (PCT), blood urea nitrogen, blood chloride, and days of hospitalization between the two groups were statistically significant. Multifactorial Logistic regression analysis showed that 72 hours admission PASS score [odds ratio (OR) = 1.034, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 1.005-1.065, P = 0.022], NLR (OR = 1.284, 95%CI was 1.139-1.447, P = 0.000), and CRP (OR = 1.015, 95%CI was 1.006-1.023, P = 0.001) were independent risk factors for IPN in patients with SAP. ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the PASS score at 72 hours of admission, NLR, and CRP alone in predicting IPN in SAP patients were 0.828, 0.771, and 0.701, respectively. The AUC of NLR combined with CRP, PASS combined with NLR, and PASS combined with CRP were 0.818, 0.895, and 0.874, respectively. The combination of PASS score at 72 hours after admission, NLR, and CRP had a better predictive ability for IPN in patients with SAP (AUC = 0.922, 95%CI was 0.877-0.967), and the sensitivity was 72.3% when the cut-off value was 0.539. CONCLUSIONS The predictive value of the PASS score at 72 hours after admission, NLR and CRP in combination for IPN in SAP patients is better than that of the combination of each two and individual detection and has better test efficacy.
Humans ; Pancreatitis, Acute Necrotizing/diagnosis* ; C-Reactive Protein/metabolism* ; Acute Disease ; Neutrophils/metabolism* ; Retrospective Studies ; ROC Curve ; Lymphocytes ; Prognosis

OBJECTIVE: To establish a machine learning model based on extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) algorithm for early prediction of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP), and explore its predictive efficiency. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted. The patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) who admitted to the First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, the Second Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University and Changshu Hospital Affiliated to Soochow University from January 1, 2020 to December 31, 2021 were enrolled. Demography information, etiology, past history, and clinical indicators and imaging data within 48 hours of admission were collected according to the medical record system and image system, and the modified CT severity index (MCTSI), Ranson score, bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) and acute pancreatitis risk score (SABP) were calculated. The data sets of the First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University and Changshu Hospital Affiliated to Soochow University were randomly divided into training set and validation set according to 8 : 2. Based on XGBoost algorithm, the SAP prediction model was constructed on the basis of hyperparameter adjustment by 5-fold cross validation and loss function. The data set of the Second Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University was served as independent test set. The predictive efficacy of the XGBoost model was evaluated by drawing the receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve), and compared it with the traditional AP related severity score; variable importance ranking diagram and Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) diagram were drawn to visually explain the model. RESULTS: A total of 1 183 AP patients were enrolled finally, of which 129 (10.9%) developed SAP. Among the patients from the First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University and Changshu Hospital Affiliated to Soochow University, there were 786 patients in the training set and 197 in the validation set; 200 patients from the Second Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University were used as the test set. Analysis of all three datasets showed that patients who advanced to SAP exhibited pathological manifestation such as abnormal respiratory function, coagulation function, liver and kidney function, and lipid metabolism. Based on the XGBoost algorithm, an SAP prediction model was constructed, and ROC curve analysis showed that the accuracy for prediction of SAP reached 0.830, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.927, which was significantly improved compared with the traditional scoring systems including MCTSI, Ranson, BISAP and SABP, the accuracy was 0.610, 0.690, 0.763, 0.625, and the AUC was 0.689, 0.631, 0.875, and 0.770, respectively. The feature importance analysis based on the XGBoost model showed that the top ten items ranked by the importance of model features were admission pleural effusion (0.119), albumin (Alb, 0.049), triglycerides (TG, 0.036), Ca²⁺ (0.034), prothrombin time (PT, 0.031), systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS, 0.031), C-reactive protein (CRP, 0.031), platelet count (PLT, 0.030), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH, 0.029), and alkaline phosphatase (ALP, 0.028). The above indicators were of great significance for the XGBoost model to predict SAP. The SHAP contribution analysis based on the XGBoost model showed that the risk of SAP increased significantly when patients had pleural effusion and decreased Alb. CONCLUSIONS A SAP prediction scoring system was established based on the machine automatic learning XGBoost algorithm, which can predict the SAP risk of patients within 48 hours of admission with good accuracy.
Humans ; Pancreatitis ; Acute Disease ; Retrospective Studies ; Hospitalization ; Algorithms