INTRODUCTION: Ultrasonography (US) is the current standard of care for imaging surveillance in patients at risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has been explored as an alternative, given the higher sensitivity of MRI, although this comes at a higher cost. We performed a cost-effective analysis comparing US and dual-sequence non-contrast-enhanced MRI (NCEMRI) for HCC surveillance in the local setting. METHODS: Cost-effectiveness analysis of no surveillance, US surveillance and NCEMRI surveillance was performed using Markov modelling and microsimulation. At-risk patient cohort was simulated and followed up for 40 years to estimate the patients' disease status, direct medical costs and effectiveness. Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio were calculated. RESULTS: Exactly 482,000 patients with an average age of 40 years were simulated and followed up for 40 years. The average total costs and QALYs for the three scenarios - no surveillance, US surveillance and NCEMRI surveillance - were SGD 1,193/7.460 QALYs, SGD 8,099/11.195 QALYs and SGD 9,720/11.366 QALYs, respectively. CONCLUSION Despite NCEMRI having a superior diagnostic accuracy, it is a less cost-effective strategy than US for HCC surveillance in the general at-risk population. Future local cost-effectiveness analyses should include stratifying surveillance methods with a variety of imaging techniques (US, NCEMRI, contrast-enhanced MRI) based on patients' risk profiles.
Humans ; Adult ; Carcinoma, Hepatocellular/diagnostic imaging* ; Liver Neoplasms/diagnostic imaging* ; Cost-Effectiveness Analysis ; Cost-Benefit Analysis ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Magnetic Resonance Imaging/methods*

BACKGROUND: Stroke is the leading cause of death in China, and predicting the stroke burden could provide essential information guiding the setting of medium- and long-term health policies and priorities. The study aimed to project trends associated with stroke burden in China through 2050, not only in terms of incidence and mortality but also for prevalence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). METHODS: Data on stroke rates in incidence, prevalence, deaths, and DALYs in China between 1990 and 2019 were obtained from a recent Global Burden of Disease study. Demographic-specific trends in rates over time were estimated using three models: the loglinear model, the Lee-Carter model, and a functional time series model. The mean absolute percentage error and the root mean squared error were used for model selection. Projections up to 2050 were estimated using the best fitting model. United Nations population data were used to project the absolute numbers through 2050. RESULTS: From 2019 to 2050, the crude rates for all measures of the stroke burden are projected to increase continuously among both men and women. We project that compared with those in 2019, the incidence, prevalence, deaths, and DALYs because of stroke in China in 2050 will increase by 55.58%, 119.16%, 72.15%, and 20.04%, respectively; the corresponding increases in number were 2.19, 34.27, 1.58, and 9.21 million. The age-standardized rate is projected to substantially decline for incidence (8.94%), death (40.37%), and DALYs (43.47%), but the age-standardized prevalence rate is predicted to increase by 10.82%. By 2050, the burden of stroke among the population aged ≥65 years will increase significantly: by 104.70% for incidence, by 218.48% for prevalence, by 100.00% for death, and by 58.93% for DALYs. CONCLUSIONS With the aging population in China increasing over the next three decades, the burden of stroke will be markedly increased. Continuous efforts are needed to improve stroke health care and secondary prevention, especially for older adults.
Male ; Humans ; Female ; Aged ; Cost of Illness ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Stroke/epidemiology* ; Incidence ; Prevalence ; China/epidemiology*

Global Burden of Disease ; Risk Factors ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years

Objective: The direction and intensity of population aging on the burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in China from 1990 to 2019 were analyzed, and the burden of NCDs in 2050 was predicted. Methods: The disease-specific disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study.The differences in indicators from 1990 to 2019 were attributed to the contribution of age structure, population size, and all other causes. The Bayesian age-time-cohort models were used to predict DALYs from NCDs to 2050. Results: The absolute level of DALYs caused by NCDs increased by 7.460 million from 1990 to 2019, and the age structure contributed 186.0% (95% Uncertainty Intervals (UIs): 178.4%-193.6%), population size contributed 77.0% (95% UIs: 69.5%-80.8%), all other causes contributed -163.0% (95% UIs:-163.1%- -159.3%). DALYs caused by NCDs consist of 2.527 million YLLs and 4.934 million YLDs, in which the contribution of age structure to YLLs and YLDs was 414.6% (95% UIs: 396.2%-432.5%) and 69.1% (95% UIs: 66.7%-71.4%), respectively. From 2019 to 2050, the diseases with increased DALYs due to changes in age structure are cardiovascular diseases, neoplasms, chronic respiratory diseases, neurological disorders, sense organ diseases, diabetes and kidney diseases, musculoskeletal disorders, digestive diseases, mental disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases in descending order. Conclusions: From 1990 to 2019, except for skin and subcutaneous diseases, the burden of other NCDs attributable to population aging increased, mainly due to disability. By 2050, the burden of NCDsattributable to population aging will continue to rise.
Humans ; Life Expectancy ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Noncommunicable Diseases/epidemiology* ; Bayes Theorem ; Global Health ; China/epidemiology* ; Aging ; Global Burden of Disease

Objective: To analyze the burden of disease attributable to high temperature exposure in China and globally from 1990 to 2019, and to study the current burden of disease in relevant populations. Methods: In October 2021, based on data from the global burden of disease 2019 (GBD 2019) study, population attributable fraction (PAF), number of deaths, mortality, disability-adjusted life year (DALY) and DALY rate of Chinese and global populations with different ages and genders in 1990 and 2019 were extracted and analyzed. The rate of change was calculated, the mortality rate was normalized by the age structure of the world standard population, and the causes of disease burden caused by high temperature exposure of Chinese residents were analyzed. Results: In 2019, compared with 1990, the PAF of Chinese and global population decreased by 43.98% and 12.41% respectively, the number of deaths increased by 29.55% and 49.40% respectively, the crude mortality rate increased by 7.81% and 3.30% respectively, the DALY decreased by 48.12% and 14.41% respectively, and the DALY rate decreased by 56.82% and 40.82% respectively. The mortality rate of the ≥70 age group was higher than that of other groups. The disease burden indicators such as PAF, standardized mortality and DALY attributable to high temperature exposure in men were higher than those in women. In 2019, the main cause of DALY affected by high temperature exposure in Chinese population was ischemic heart disease (84400 person-years), and the main cause of death was ischemic heart disease (4900 cases). Conclusion: The burden of diseases attributable to high temperature exposure is still serious in China and the world at large. Targeted interventions should be formulated for men, the elderly and people with occupational exposure, and a sound surveillance system should be established to reduce the burden of diseases caused by high temperature exposure.
Humans ; Male ; Female ; Aged ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Temperature ; Cost of Illness ; China/epidemiology* ; Myocardial Ischemia

Objective: To analyze the disease burden of pneumoconiosis globally and in China from 1990 to 2019 using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 data, and to provide a theoretical basis for prevention and control of pneumoconiosis. Methods: In September 2022, the data of incidence, prevalence, morality and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) of pneumoconiosis and its subtypes globally and in China from 1990 to 2019 were collected from GBD 2019, including absolute number and age-standardized rate (ASR). Joinpoint linear regression model was used to calculate average annual percent change (AAPC) and analyze the change trends of incidence, prevalence, mortality and DALY of pneumoconiosis and its subtypes. Results: From 1990 to 2019, the incident cases, prevalent cases and DALY value of pneumoconiosis showed upward trends, while the number of death cases showed downward trends. And the ASR of incidence (ASIR), the ASR of prevalence (ASPR), the ASR of mortality (ASMR) and the ASR of DALY (ASDR) showed downward trends globally and in China. China accounted for a large proportion of the global disease burden of penumoconiosis, accounting for more than 67% of the incident cases, more than 80% of the prevalent cases, more than 43% of the deaths cases and more than 60% of the absolute number of DALY in the world every year. Male were the main population of pneumoconiosis disease burden globally and in China, and the age of onset was earlier than that of female. The peak age periods of incidence, prevalence, mortality and DALY of pneumoconiosis globally and in China from 1990 to 2019 have increased. Silicosis was still the type with the highest disease burden of pneumoconiosis globally and in China. The disease burden of coal workers' pneumoconiosis had an overall improvement trend, but asbestosis had an increasing disease burden worldwide. Conclusion: The disease burden of pneumoconiosis is heavy globally and in China, which is necessary to strengthen the supervision and prevention measures according to gender, age and etiological types.
Male ; Humans ; Female ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Pneumoconiosis/epidemiology* ; Cost of Illness ; Asbestosis/epidemiology* ; China/epidemiology* ; Anthracosis ; Incidence

OBJECTIVES: Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is one of the 3 major eye diseases recognized by WHO to prevent blindness, and which is the main cause of irreversible visual impairment in the elderly. This study aims to analyze the disease epidemiological burden, and provide a theoretical foundation for the prevention and control of AMD in China based on the data in global burden of disease (GBD) 2019. METHODS: The prevalent cases/prevalence, disability-adjusted life year (DALYs)/DALY rate of AMD and socio-demographic index (SDI) for global and China were searched from the GBD 2019 database to analyze the epidemiological trend, age-period-gender trend of AMD in China from 1990 to 2019, and to evaluate the relations between the prevalence and SDI. RESULTS: In 2019, the prevalence of AMD in China was at a high level in the world, and the number of prevalent cases were 1.93 times of that in 1990. The prevalence and DALY rates continued to rise. The age trend of AMD in China was high at the middle of the age stages and low at the two ends, and which was higher in the female than in the male. With the increase of SDI, the prevalence of AMD was increased linearly. CONCLUSIONS The disease burden of AMD in China is increased significantly and is positively correlated with the social development from 1990 to 2019. It is of great significance to study the relationship between epidemilolgical data of AMD and social development level for diagnosis treatment and policy of AMD.
Humans ; Male ; Female ; Aged ; Global Burden of Disease ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Prevalence ; Macular Degeneration/epidemiology* ; China/epidemiology*

BACKGROUND: Epilepsy accounts for a significant portion of the global disease burden. However, little is known about the disease burden of epilepsy in China and its provinces. METHODS: We assessed the burden of epilepsy in China and its provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions from 1990 to 2019. Burden was measured as incidence, prevalence, deaths, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), by age, sex, year, and province. We used the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) to determine the association between the provincial development level and age-standardized DALY rates of epilepsy from 1990 to 2019. RESULTS: In 2019, epilepsy caused 1367.51 thousand (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 979.92-1837.61 thousand) DALYs, and the age-standardized DALY rate was 99.77 (95% UI: 71.33-133.52)/100,000. The age-standardized incidence and prevalence rates for epilepsy in China were 24.65/100,000 and 219.69/100,000, increased by 45.00% (95% UI: 8.03-98.74%) and 35.72% (95% UI: 0.47-86.19%) compared with that in 1990, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, the proportion of DALY caused by epilepsy in the age group under 25 years steadily decreased. The proportion of DALYs caused by epilepsy in people aged 50 years and over increased from 9.45% and 10.22% in 1990 to 29.01% and 32.72% for male and female individuals in 2019, respectively. The highest age-standardized mortality rates were seen in Tibet (4.26 [95% UI: 1.43-5.66]/100,000), Qinghai (1.80 [95% UI: 1.15-2.36]/100,000), and Yunnan (1.30 [95% UI: 0.88-1.62]/100,000), and the lowest mortality rates were in Guangdong (0.48 [95% UI: 0.39-0.64]/100,000), Zhejiang (0.56 [95% UI: 0.44-0.70]/100,000), and Shanghai (0.57 [95% UI: 0.41-0.73]/100,000). The age-standardized DALY rates across the country and in provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions generally decreased as their SDI increased. CONCLUSIONS The disease burden of epilepsy is still heavy in China, especially in the western provinces. The incidence and prevalence of epilepsy increased between 1990 and 2019, and the burden of epilepsy in the elderly increases gradually. This study provides evidence on epilepsy prevention and care of different regions in China.
Aged ; Humans ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Adult ; Global Burden of Disease ; China/epidemiology* ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Cost of Illness ; Epilepsy/epidemiology* ; Prevalence

Objective: This study compared the economic viability of initial medical therapy with topical prostaglandin analogues (PGAs) versus selective laser trabeculoplasty (SLT) in the treatment of primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG). Method: This was an economic analysis using actual, current treatment costs of PGA therapy versus SLT applied to theoretical, literature-derived clinical efficacy data projected for a period of 19 years. A socioeconomic and demographic survey conducted among POAG patients at the Department of Health Eye Center of the East Avenue Medical Center from March-April 2022 provided the economic context and setting for the analysis. The treatment regimens were compared in terms of total cost, clinical efficacy, cost-effectiveness and cost-utility in the setting of a tertiary government hospital. Results: Thirty-one (31) patients were included in the study. The total annual cost of topical PGAs was Philippine Pesos (Php) 13,532 versus Php 6,195 for SLT. Cost-effectiveness was Php 1,933 for PGAs/mmHg reduction in intraocular pressure (IOP) versus Php 983 for SLT. Cost-utility was Php 59,793/Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALY) gained for PGAs versus Php 27,373/QALY gained for SLT projected for 19 years. With government insurance coverage, cost-utility ratio was Php 47,831/QALY gained for topical PGAs versus 16,327/QALY gained for SLT. Conclusion In POAG patients, SLT was more cost-effective versus PGAs with a lower cost per mmHg IOP reduction, and lower cost-utility ratio for every QALY gained. SLT can be recommended as initial therapy for POAG especially for patients being treated at tertiary government hospitals.
Economic analysis ; cost-utility ; glaucoma ; prostaglandin analogues ; quality adjusted life years ; Philippines

BACKGROUND: There is limited data to comprehensively evaluate the epidemiological characteristics of multiple myeloma (MM) in China; therefore, this study determined the characteristics of the disease burden of MM at national and provincial levels in China. METHODS: The burden of MM, including incidence, mortality, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), with a 95% uncertainty interval (UI), was determined in China following the general analytical strategy used in the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019. The trends in the burden of MM from 1990 to 2019 were also evaluated. RESULTS: There were an estimated 347.45 thousand DALYs with an age-standardized DALY rate of 17.05 (95% UI, 12.31-20.77) per 100,000 in 2019. The estimated number of incident case and deaths of MM were 18,793 and 13,421, with age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of 0.93 (95% UI, 0.67-1.15) and 0.67 (95% UI, 0.50-0.82) per 100,000, respectively. The age-specific DALY rates per 100,000 increased to more than 10.00 in the 40 to 44 years age group reaching a peak (93.82) in the 70 to 74 years age group. Males had a higher burden than females, with approximately 1.5- to 2.0-fold sex difference in age-specific DALY rates in all age groups. From 1990 to 2019, the DALYs of MM increased 134%, from 148,479 in 1990 to 347,453 in 2019. CONCLUSION The burden of MM has doubled over the last three decades, which highlights the need to establish effective disease prevention and control strategies at both the national and provincial levels.
Humans ; Male ; Female ; Adult ; Aged ; Global Burden of Disease ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years ; Multiple Myeloma/epidemiology* ; Global Health ; Incidence ; Prevalence ; Risk Factors ; China/epidemiology*