1.Analysis of pesticide poisoning hospitalized cases in a children s hospital in Jiangxi Province from 2009 to 2023
ZHAN Yishan, CHEN Yuanyuan, ZHU Yourong, ZHANG Shouhua
Chinese Journal of School Health 2026;47(3):434-437
Objective:
To analyze the characteristics of pediatric pesticide poisoning cases admitted to a children s hospital in Jiangxi Province, so as to provide references for the prevention and treatment of pediatric pesticide poisoning.
Methods:
Medical records of 349 pesticide poisoning hospitalized cases from 2009 to 2023 in a children s hospital in Jiangxi Province were retrospectively reviewed to summarized clinical features, categories of pesticides involved, therapeutic interventions, and prognostic outcomes.
Results:
Among the cases of pesticide poisoning in children, there were 217 boys and 132 girls with an average age of 4 years and 8 months; 35.82% of cases occurred during April-June, followed by 27.22% during July-September, during October-December accounting for 22.35%, with 14.61% during January-March. There were 75 (21.49%), 148 (42.41%), 126 cases ( 36.10% ) during 2009-2013, 2014-2018, 2019-2023. In terms of pesticide type, insecticides ranked first (166 cases, 47.56% ), followed by herbicides (116 cases, 33.24%) and rodenticides (58 cases, 16.62%). The average hospitalization time was 4 days, and a total of 73 cases (20.92%) required admission to the intensive care unit among pesticide poisoning cases. There were 11 deaths, including 6 cases who were associated with paraguat esposure of paraquat. Self poisoning accounted for 34 cases, with an average age of 12 years and 2 months; 50.00% (17 cases) were concentrated in 2022-2023, accounting for 64.71% (22 cases) in girls; 8 cases of self poisoning resulted in death, accounting for 72.73% of the total number of deaths.
Conclusions
The period of April to June repesents the peak time for pediatric pesticide poisoning cases, and the proportion of accidental ingestion is relatively high. It is necessary to strictly prevent child poisoning.
2.Correlation between CD4+T lymphocytes and viral load in newly identified human immunodeficiency virus infected individuals in Huangpu District,Shanghai,2023
Shuang ZHU ; Jieqiong ZHAN ; Lili SONG ; Yu WANG ; Wei CHU ; Weihua CHEN ; Huimin XU
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;37(2):125-128
ObjectiveTo analyze the detected results of CD4+T lymphocytes and viral load in newly identified human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infected patients in Huangpu District of Shanghai in 2023, to explore the correlation between them, so as to provide a scientific basis for the development of targeted prevention and control measures and antiviral treatment programs. MethodsThe data of CD4 cell count, viral load and demographic characteristics of the newly infected patients living with HIV in Huangpu District, Shanghai in 2023 were collected and analyzed by using descriptive epidemiological method. ResultsThe mean CD4 cell count of the 67 newly identified HIV infected patients in Huangpu District was (301.22±235.19) cells·µL-1, with a mean viral load of (5.15±1.28) ×105 copies·mL-1.There were statistically significant differences in CD4 cell count and viral load among different age groups (P<0.05), but there were no statistically significant differences by gender and marital status (both P>0.05). The CD4 cell count and CD4/CD8 ratio both were negatively correlated with the lg value of viral load (r=-0.290, -0.378; P=0.027, 0.002). ConclusionThe CD4 cell counts of the newly identified HIV infected patients in Huangpu District in 2023 were generally low, the proportion of patients with high viral load was high, but the risk for elderly infected with HIV was high. The elderly have gradually become the key population for AIDS prevention and control in Huangpu District. It is recommended to expand HIV screening in the elderly to reduce the risk of HIV transmission and increase the rate of early detection and treatment.
3.Polysaccharide extract PCP1 from Polygonatum cyrtonema ameliorates cerebral ischemia-reperfusion injury in rats by inhibiting TLR4/NLRP3 pathway.
Xin ZHAN ; Zi-Xu LI ; Zhu YANG ; Jie YU ; Wen CAO ; Zhen-Dong WU ; Jiang-Ping WU ; Qiu-Yue LYU ; Hui CHE ; Guo-Dong WANG ; Jun HAN
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(9):2450-2460
This study aims to investigate the protective effects and mechanisms of polysaccharide extract PCP1 from Polygonatum cyrtonema in ameliorating cerebral ischemia-reperfusion(I/R) injury in rats through modulation of the Toll-like receptor 4(TLR4)/NOD-like receptor protein 3(NLRP3) signaling pathway. In vivo, SD rats were randomly divided into the sham group, model group, PCP1 group, nimodipine(NMDP) group, and TLR4 signaling inhibitor(TAK-242) group. A middle cerebral artery occlusion/reperfusion(MCAO/R) model was established, and neurological deficit scores and infarct size were evaluated 24 hours after reperfusion. Hematoxylin-eosin(HE) and Nissl staining were used to observe pathological changes in ischemic brain tissue. Transmission electron microscopy(TEM) assessed ultrastructural damage in cortical neurons. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay(ELISA) was used to measure the levels of interleukin-1β(IL-1β), interleukin-6(IL-6), interleukin-18(IL-18), tumor necrosis factor-α(TNF-α), interleukin-10(IL-10), and nitric oxide(NO) in serum. Immunofluorescence was used to analyze the expression of TLR4 and NLRP3 proteins. In vitro, a BV2 microglial cell oxygen-glucose deprivation/reperfusion(OGD/R) model was established, and cells were divided into the control, OGD/R, PCP1, TAK-242, and PCP1 + TLR4 activator lipopolysaccharide(LPS) groups. The CCK-8 assay evaluated BV2 cell viability, and ELISA determined NO release. Western blot was used to analyze the expression of TLR4, NLRP3, and downstream pathway-related proteins. The results indicated that, compared with the model group, PCP1 significantly reduced neurological deficit scores, infarct size, ischemic tissue pathology, cortical cell damage, and the levels of inflammatory factors IL-1β, IL-6, IL-18, TNF-α, and NO(P<0.01). It also elevated IL-10 levels(P<0.01) and decreased the expression of TLR4 and NLRP3 proteins(P<0.05, P<0.01). Moreover, in vitro results showed that, compared with the OGD/R group, PCP1 significantly improved BV2 cell viability(P<0.05, P<0.01), reduced cell NO levels induced by OGD/R(P<0.01), and inhibited the expression of TLR4-related inflammatory pathway proteins, including TLR4, myeloid differentiation factor 88(MyD88), tumor necrosis factor receptor-associated factor 6(TRAF6), phosphorylated nuclear factor-kappaB dimer RelA(p-p65)/nuclear factor-kappaB dimer RelA(p65), NLRP3, cleaved-caspase-1, apoptosis-associated speck-like protein(ASC), GSDMD-N, IL-1β, and IL-18(P<0.05, P<0.01). The protective effects of PCP1 were reversed by LPS stimulation. In conclusion, PCP1 ameliorates cerebral I/R injury by modulating the TLR4/NLRP3 signaling pathway, exerting anti-inflammatory and anti-pyroptotic effects.
Animals
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Toll-Like Receptor 4/genetics*
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NLR Family, Pyrin Domain-Containing 3 Protein/genetics*
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Rats, Sprague-Dawley
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Rats
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Reperfusion Injury/genetics*
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Male
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Signal Transduction/drug effects*
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Polysaccharides/isolation & purification*
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Polygonatum/chemistry*
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Brain Ischemia/genetics*
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Drugs, Chinese Herbal/administration & dosage*
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Mice
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Humans
4.Real-world efficacy and safety of azvudine in hospitalized older patients with COVID-19 during the omicron wave in China: A retrospective cohort study.
Yuanchao ZHU ; Fei ZHAO ; Yubing ZHU ; Xingang LI ; Deshi DONG ; Bolin ZHU ; Jianchun LI ; Xin HU ; Zinan ZHAO ; Wenfeng XU ; Yang JV ; Dandan WANG ; Yingming ZHENG ; Yiwen DONG ; Lu LI ; Shilei YANG ; Zhiyuan TENG ; Ling LU ; Jingwei ZHU ; Linzhe DU ; Yunxin LIU ; Lechuan JIA ; Qiujv ZHANG ; Hui MA ; Ana ZHAO ; Hongliu JIANG ; Xin XU ; Jinli WANG ; Xuping QIAN ; Wei ZHANG ; Tingting ZHENG ; Chunxia YANG ; Xuguang CHEN ; Kun LIU ; Huanhuan JIANG ; Dongxiang QU ; Jia SONG ; Hua CHENG ; Wenfang SUN ; Hanqiu ZHAN ; Xiao LI ; Yafeng WANG ; Aixia WANG ; Li LIU ; Lihua YANG ; Nan ZHANG ; Shumin CHEN ; Jingjing MA ; Wei LIU ; Xiaoxiang DU ; Meiqin ZHENG ; Liyan WAN ; Guangqing DU ; Hangmei LIU ; Pengfei JIN
Acta Pharmaceutica Sinica B 2025;15(1):123-132
Debates persist regarding the efficacy and safety of azvudine, particularly its real-world outcomes. This study involved patients aged ≥60 years who were admitted to 25 hospitals in mainland China with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection between December 1, 2022, and February 28, 2023. Efficacy outcomes were all-cause mortality during hospitalization, the proportion of patients discharged with recovery, time to nucleic acid-negative conversion (T NANC), time to symptom improvement (T SI), and time of hospital stay (T HS). Safety was also assessed. Among the 5884 participants identified, 1999 received azvudine, and 1999 matched controls were included after exclusion and propensity score matching. Azvudine recipients exhibited lower all-cause mortality compared with controls in the overall population (13.3% vs. 17.1%, RR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.67-0.90; P = 0.001) and in the severe subgroup (25.7% vs. 33.7%; RR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.66-0.88; P < 0.001). A higher proportion of patients discharged with recovery, and a shorter T NANC were associated with azvudine recipients, especially in the severe subgroup. The incidence of adverse events in azvudine recipients was comparable to that in the control group (2.3% vs. 1.7%, P = 0.170). In conclusion, azvudine showed efficacy and safety in older patients hospitalized with COVID-19 during the SARS-CoV-2 omicron wave in China.
5.A New Perspective on the Prediction and Treatment of Stroke: The Role of Uric Acid.
Bingrui ZHU ; Xiaobin HUANG ; Jiahao ZHANG ; Xiaoyu WANG ; Sixuan TIAN ; Tiantong ZHAN ; Yibo LIU ; Haocheng ZHANG ; Sheng CHEN ; Cheng YU
Neuroscience Bulletin 2025;41(3):486-500
Stroke, a major cerebrovascular disease, has high morbidity and mortality. Effective methods to reduce the risk and improve the prognosis are lacking. Currently, uric acid (UA) is associated with the pathological mechanism, prognosis, and therapy of stroke. UA plays pro/anti-oxidative and pro-inflammatory roles in vivo. The specific role of UA in stroke, which may have both neuroprotective and damaging effects, remains unclear. There is a U-shaped association between serum uric acid (SUA) levels and ischemic stroke (IS). UA therapy provides neuroprotection during reperfusion therapy for acute ischemic stroke (AIS). Urate-lowering therapy (ULT) plays a protective role in IS with hyperuricemia or gout. SUA levels are associated with the cerebrovascular injury mechanism, risk, and outcomes of hemorrhagic stroke. In this review, we summarize the current research on the role of UA in stroke, providing potential targets for its prediction and treatment.
Humans
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Uric Acid/metabolism*
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Stroke/drug therapy*
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Animals
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Hyperuricemia/drug therapy*
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Ischemic Stroke/blood*
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Biomarkers/blood*
6.Targeting ceramide-induced microglial pyroptosis: Icariin is a promising therapy for Alzheimer's disease.
Hongli LI ; Qiao XIAO ; Lemei ZHU ; Jin KANG ; Qiong ZHAN ; Weijun PENG
Journal of Pharmaceutical Analysis 2025;15(4):101106-101106
Alzheimer's disease (AD), a progressive dementia, is one of the most common neurodegenerative diseases. Clinical trial results of amyloid-β (Aβ) and tau regulators based on the pretext of straightforward amyloid and tau immunotherapy were disappointing. There are currently no effective strategies for slowing the progression of AD. Herein, we spotlight the dysregulation of lipid metabolism, particularly the elevation of ceramides (Cers), as a critical yet underexplored facet of AD pathogenesis. Our study delineates the role of Cers in promoting microglial pyroptosis, a form of programmed cell death distinct from apoptosis and necroptosis, characterized by cellular swelling, and membrane rupture mediated by the NLRP3 inflammasome pathway. Utilizing both in vivo experiments with amyloid precursor protein (APP)/presenilin 1 (PS1) transgenic mice and in vitro assays with BV-2 microglial cells, we investigate the activation of microglial pyroptosis by Cers and its inhibition by icariin (ICA), a flavonoid with known antioxidant and anti-inflammatory properties. Our findings reveal a significant increase in Cers levels and pyroptosis markers (NOD-like receptor family, pyrin domain containing 3 (NLRP3), apoptosis-associated speck-like protein containing a caspase recruitment domain, caspase-1, gasdermin D (gasdermin D (GSDMD)), and interleukin-18 (IL-18)) in the brains of AD model mice, indicating a direct involvement of Cers in AD pathology through the induction of microglial pyroptosis. Conversely, ICA treatment effectively reduces these pyroptotic markers and Cer levels, thereby attenuating microglial pyroptosis and suggesting a novel therapeutic mechanism of action against AD. This study not only advances our understanding of the pathogenic role of Cers in AD but also introduces ICA as a promising candidate for AD therapy, capable of mitigating neuroinflammation and pyroptosis through the cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2)-NLRP3 inflammasome-gasdermin D (GSDMD) axis. Our results pave the way for further exploration of Cer metabolism disorders in neurodegenerative diseases and highlight the therapeutic potential of targeting microglial pyroptosis in AD.
7.Nigella sativa L. seed extract alleviates oxidative stress-induced cellular senescence and dysfunction in melanocytes.
Ben NIU ; Xiaohong AN ; Yongmei CHEN ; Ting HE ; Xiao ZHAN ; Xiuqi ZHU ; Fengfeng PING ; Wei ZHANG ; Jia ZHOU
Chinese Journal of Natural Medicines (English Ed.) 2025;23(2):203-213
Nigella sativa L. seeds have been traditionally utilized in Chinese folk medicine for centuries to treat vitiligo. This study revealed that the ethanolic extract of Nigella sativa L. (HZC) enhances melanogenesis and mitigates oxidative stress-induced cellular senescence and dysfunction in melanocytes. In accordance with established protocols, the ethanol fraction from Nigella sativa L. seeds was extracted, concentrated, and lyophilized to evaluate its herbal effects via 3-(4,5-dimethylthiazol-2-yl)-2,5-diphenyltetrazolium bromide (MTT) assays, tyrosinase activity evaluation, measurement of cellular melanin contents, scratch assays, senescence-associated β-galactosidase (SA-β-gal) staining, enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), and Western blot analysis for expression profiling of experimentally relevant proteins. The results indicated that HZC significantly enhanced tyrosinase activity and melanin content while notably increasing the protein expression levels of Tyr, Mitf, and gp100 in B16F10 cells. Furthermore, HZC effectively mitigated oxidative stress-induced cellular senescence, improved melanocyte condition, and rectified various functional impairments associated with melanocyte dysfunction. These findings suggest that HZC increases melanin synthesis in melanocytes through the activation of the MAPK, PKA, and Wnt signaling pathways. In addition, HZC attenuates oxidative damage induced by H2O2 therapy by activating the nuclear factor E2-related factor 2-antioxidant response element (Nrf2-ARE) pathway and enhancing the activity of downstream antioxidant enzymes, thus preventing premature senescence and dysfunction in melanocytes.
Oxidative Stress/drug effects*
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Melanocytes/cytology*
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Cellular Senescence/drug effects*
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Nigella sativa/chemistry*
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Plant Extracts/pharmacology*
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Seeds/chemistry*
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Mice
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Animals
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Melanins/metabolism*
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Monophenol Monooxygenase/metabolism*
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Humans
8.The effect of"Tongdu Tiaoshen"acupuncture combined with hand function training in treatment of hand dysfunction after cerebral infarction
Tuo ZHU ; Yideng ZHAO ; Hailan ZHAN ; Quan ZHOU
The Journal of Practical Medicine 2025;41(15):2418-2425
Objective To evaluate the clinical efficacy of"Tongdu Tiaoshen"acupuncture combined with hand function rehabilitation training in patients with hand dysfunction following cerebral infarction.Methods A total of 104 patients were randomly assigned to either the observation group(receiving"Tongdu Tiaoshen"acupunc-ture combined with hand function rehabilitation training)or the control group(undergoing hand function rehabilita-tion training alone),with 52 patients in each group.Both groups underwent a 4-week treatment regimen.The following outcome measures were assessed pre-and post-treatment:Modified Ashworth Scale(MAS),Modified Lindmark Scale(MLS),Brunnstrom Motor Function Score(BMS)for upper limbs,Fugl-Meyer Assessment(FMA)of upper limb motor function,Modified Barthel Index(MBI),and grip strength(GS).Adverse events were docu-mented,and the clinical efficacy in each group was evaluated by calculating the effective rate.Results After excluding dropouts,a total of 94 cases were included in the final statistical analysis,with 48 cases assigned to the observation group and 46 to the control group.Both groups demonstrated significant improvements in MLS,MAS,BMS,FMA,MBI,and GS scores compared to pre-treatment levels,with all differences being statistically significant(P<0.05).Following treatment,intergroup comparisons also revealed statistically significant differences in all mea-sured indicators(P<0.05).The total effective rate was higher in the observation group(91.7%)than in the control group(82.6%),and the difference in efficacy grades between the two groups was statistically significant(P<0.05).Conclusions"Tongdu Tiaoshen"acupuncture,when combined with hand function training,demonstrates signifi-cantly greater efficacy than hand function rehabilitation training alone in improving post-cerebral infarction hand dysfunction.It enhances grip strength and fine motor coordination of the affected limb,alleviates hand muscle spasticity and joint stiffness,and promotes recovery of upper limb motor function,thereby improving patients'activities of daily living.This integrated therapeutic approach warrants further clinical validation and in-depth research for broader implementation.
9.Effect of first-day fluid intake after transferring to ICU on 7-day risk for death in patients with chronic liver disease after surgery:a retrospective cohort study based on MIMIC-IV database
Zhuo ZHAN ; Chunyong YANG ; Xin SHU ; Yiziting ZHU ; Kaizhi LU ; Jianliang SHAO
Journal of Army Medical University 2025;47(16):1931-1939
Objective Patients with chronic liver diseases often exhibit unique hemodynamic abnormalities and metabolic disorders.Postoperative fluid management presents numerous challenges,especially for critically ill patients admitted to the intensive care unit(ICU)after surgery.This study aimed at exploring the relationship between postoperative fluid therapy and prognosis.Methods Based on 2 414 patients with chronic liver diseases who underwent surgical treatment and were subsequently transferred to the ICU in the MIMIC-IV database,a retrospective cohort study was conducted on the final 2 143 patients after our inclusion and exclusion criteria.Multivariate adjusted logistic regression model was used to analyze the association between fluid therapeutic regimens on the first day after ICU admission and the risk of 7-day death after surgery.Restricted cubic spline(RCS)was applied to analyze the dose-response relationship.Results Multivariate analysis indicated that restrictive fluid resuscitation was an independent protective factor.Compared with the non-restrictive fluid resuscitation group,restrictive fluid resuscitation significantly reduced the 7-day postoperative mortality rate(6.4%vs 12.4%,OR=0.44,95%CI:0.22~0.88,P=0.021),decreased the use of mechanical ventilation(42.9%vs 72.3%,OR=0.29,95%CI:0.24~0.35,P<0.001),and shortened the ICU stay(1.86 vs 3.47 d,OR=0.81,95%CI:0.78~0.84,P<0.001).RCS curve showed that the fluid intake on the first postoperative day and the 7-day postoperative mortality risk presented a J-shaped curve relationship,with an inflection point at 1 850 mL.Beyond this threshold,the 7-day postoperative mortality risk was increased.Subgroup analysis results indicated that the protective effect of restrictive fluid resuscitation was consistent across different age and comorbidity groups.Conclusion For patients with chronic liver diseases,adopting a restrictive fluid therapy on the first day after surgery can effectively reduce the risk of short-term death.Moreover,there is a non-linear dose-effect relationship between the fluid intake and the 7-day mortality risk.When the fluid intake exceeds 1 850 mL,the risk of death significantly increases.
10.Construction and evaluation of a predictive model for mortality risk factors in patients with multiple trauma complicated with thoracic injuries
Sitong MOU ; Xiaoling ZHU ; Shixiong YANG ; Heyue YANG ; Ke LUO ; Xian WU ; Zhiqun ZHAN ; Hongli TENG ; Li YE ; Ming LI ; Huamin TANG
Chinese Journal of Trauma 2025;41(1):72-81
Objective:To construct a predictive model for mortality in patients with multiple trauma combined with thoracic injuries and evaluate its predictive value.Methods:A retrospective cohort study was conducted to analyze the clinical data of 184 patients with multiple trauma combined with thoracic injuries admitted to the International Zhuang Medicine Hospital Affiliated to Guangxi University of Chinese Medicine from April 2019 to December 2023, including 129 males and 55 females, aged 19-85 years [(46.1±13.7)years]. According to the prognostic outcomes at 3-month follow-up after discharge, the patients were divided into survival group ( n=145) and death group ( n=39). Data were recorded in both groups at admission, including gender, age, and cause of injury, laboratory tests such as systolic blood pressure, oxygen saturation (SaO 2), hemoglobin (Hb), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and lactate, combined injuries such as the number of combined injuries, number of rib fracture, bilateral rib fracture, first-rib fracture, sternum fracture, thoracic vertebral fracture, bilateral pulmonary contusion, bilateral pneumothorax, subarachnoid hemorrhage, subdural hematoma, epidural hematoma, skull fracture, skull base fracture, cervical vertebral fracture, brain herniation, cerebral contusion, lumbar vertebral fracture, pelvic and abdominal cavity hematoma, liver injury, kidney injury, spleen injury, clavicle fracture, scapular fracture, femoral fracture, and pelvic fracture, and injury scores such as shock index (SI), modified shock index (MSI), injury severity score (ISS), revised trauma score (RTS), Glasgow coma score (GCS), and thoracic trauma severity (TTS) score. Univariate binary logistic regression analysis was used to screen for risk factors of death in patients with multiple trauma combined with thoracic injuries. LASSO regression and multivariate logistic regression analysis were employed to identify predictive variables and independent risk factors for mortality in those patients and to construct a regression equation. A nomogram prediction model based on the regression equation was developed using R language. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted to evaluate the discrimination of the model. The ROC curves were internally validated using the Bootstrap method with 1 000 resamples. The calibration of the model was assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) goodness-of-fit test. The clinical application value of the model was evaluated using decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curve (CIC) analysis. Results:There were statistically significant differences between the survival group and the death group in systolic blood pressure, SaO 2, NLR, lactate, number of combined injuries, subarachnoid hemorrhage, subdural hematoma, skull fracture, skull base fracture, brain herniation, liver injury, SI, MSI, ISS, RTS, GCS, and TTS ( P<0.05 or 0.01). The results of the univariate binary logistic regression analysis showed that the above-mentioned related variables except for systolic blood pressure were all significantly associated with death in patients with multiple trauma combined with thoracic injuries ( P<0.05 or 0.01). Five predictive variables, TTS, GCS, brain herniation, ISS, and lactate were obtained in LASSO regression analysis. The results of the multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that GCS ( OR=0.70, 95% CI 0.58, 0.83), brain herniation ( OR=46.18, 95% CI 4.27, 499.26), TTS ( OR=1.71, 95% CI 1.30, 2.24), and lactate ( OR=1.35, 95% CI 1.01, 1.80) were independent risk factors for death in patients with multiple trauma combined with thoracic injuries ( P<0.05 or 0.01). Based on the aforementioned independent risk factors, a regression formula was constructed as follows: P=e x/(1+e x), with the x=-0.36×"GCS"+3.83×"brain herniation"+0.53×"TTS"+0.30×"lactate levels"-11.03. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the predictive model for mortality in patients with multiple trauma combined with thoracic injuries based on the equation was 0.97 (95% CI 0.93, 1.00). The AUC was internally validated using the Bootstrap method with 1 000 samples, resulting in an AUC of 0.97 (95% CI 0.91, 1.00). The results of the H-L goodness-of-fit test showed that the bias-corrected calibration curve of the model was in good consistence with the actual curve and both of them were close to the ideal curve. In the evaluation of the clinical application value of the predictive model, the DCA results showed that the predictive model could achieve good clinical net benefit. The CIC results showed that when the threshold probability was greater than 0.7, the model-identified high-risk patients for death highly matched the patients who actually died. Conclusion:The predictive model for mortality in patients with multiple trauma combined with thoracic injuries based on GCS, brain herniation, TTS, and lactate has good predictive performance and clinical application value.


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