1.Dose analysis of eye lens and fingers of interventional radiology workers in Baoji City, China
Xinmei HU ; Zhongli WANG ; Zhigang JI ; Hui CHAO ; Guangping KOU
Chinese Journal of Radiological Health 2025;34(3):336-342
Objective To investigate the eye lens and hand dose levels of interventional radiology workers in Baoji City, China, and to provide data reference for radiation protection. Methods In two general hospitals, the eye lens and finger doses of 121 interventional radiology workers were monitored between 2021 and 2023. The average annual dose levels and dose distribution were analyzed based on years, job positions, surgical sites, and duties during surgery. Results The average annual dose to the eye lens was 3.36 mSv, with the highest dose of 16.36 mSv. The average annual dose to the fingers was 3.38 mSv, with the highest dose of 17.72 mSv. The average annual dose to the eye lens and fingers decreased from 2021 to 2023. The average annual dose to the eye lens of the interventional surgeons was higher than those of the technicians and nurses, while the average annual dose to the fingers of the interventional surgeons was higher than that of the technicians. The average annual doses to the eye lens and fingers of the first operator were similar to those of the second operator, but both were higher than other personnel involved in the interventional surgery, and the differences were statistically significant (all P < 0.05). There were linear regression relationships between the annual doses to the eye lens and fingers and the effective whole-body dose of the interventional radiology workers. A paired test was conducted on the annual dose to the eye lens and fingers of the interventional workers for different surgical sites. The cardiovascular and peripheral vascular interventional workers had higher average annual doses to the eye lens than to the fingers, the cerebrovascular interventional workers had a higher average annual dose to the fingers than to the eye lens, and the differences were statistically significant. Conclusion The annual doses to the eye lens and fingers of the interventional radiology workers in Baoji City were lower than the national limits. However, some workers showed eye lens annual doses close to the new international standard limit (20 mSv). Special attention should be given to interventional physicians, especially the first and second surgeons.
2.Relationship between different subtypes of MDSC and tumor burden and predictive value of therapeutic effect in chronic myeloid leukemia patients
Zhongli HU ; Yanli YANG ; Jiajia LI ; Shaojun PAN
Chinese Journal of Immunology 2025;41(7):1566-1573
Objective:To investigate expression levels of various myeloid suppressor cells(MDSCs)in bone marrow of patients with chronic myeloid leukemia(CML),and the difference and correlation of expression levels of BCR-ABL fusion gene and WT1 in CML patients at different stages,and explore its clinical significance.To analyze and compare the distribution differences of various MDSCs in CML with different remission depths after treatment.Methods:Proportions of various MDSCs in 58 CML patients were de-tected by flow cytometry.Relative expressions of WT1 and BCR-ABL were detected by RQ-PCR.Iron deficiency anemia patients were served as control group,differences of the distribution of MDSCs in CML patients with different BCR-ABL expression,different WT1 expression,different CD34+cell numbers and different disease course,and expressions of various types of MDSC at 3,6,12 and 24 months after treatment in patients with chronic phase of CML were analyzed.At the same time,changes of cellular immune status in CML patients at different stages were detected,and correlations between the changes of lymphocyte subsets and MDSCs were compared.Results:Proportions of G-MDSC and e-MDSC in chronic phase of CML were significantly higher than that in normal control group(P<0.05).Proportions of G-MDSC and e-MDSC in CML patients in accelerated phase and blast crisis phase were significantly higher than that in CML patients in chronic phase(P<0.05).However,the difference in proportion of M-MDSC between accelerated phase of CML and chronic phase of CML had no statistical significance.Proportion of G-MDSC in CML patients was positively correlated with values of BCR-ABL,WT1 genes and proportion of CD34+cells(r=0.558 7,0.530 7,0.598 1),proportion of M-MDSC was positively correlated with values of BCR-ABL,WT1 genes and proportion of CD34+cells(r=0.132 1,0.144 6,0.157 8).Proportion of e-MDSC was positively correlated with values of BCR-ABL,WT1 genes and proportion of CD34+cells(r=0.604 3,0.620 7,0.625 9).G-MDSC was significantly lower in the best response group than that in warning/failure group at all stages of treatment.e-MDSC was differential in the best response and warning/failure groups at only 3 months of treatment.M-MDSC was not statistically significant in the best response and warning/failure groups at all stages of treatment.And only G-MDSC cell ratio was positively correlated with its BCR-ABL ratio(r=0.798 1).Per-centage of T lymphocyte in CML blast crisis phase was significantly lower than that in accelerated and chronic phases,while percentage of NK cells was higher.Only the proportion of G-MDSC was negatively correlated with the proportion of T lymphocyte(r=-0.815 2).Conclusion:Various MDSCs are positively correlated with BCR-ABL,WT1 gene and CD34+cells,and positively correlated with the tumor burden of CML patients,while the correlation of M-MDSC is weaker than that of G-MDSC and e-MDSC.With the remission of CML,G-MDSC decreases,while M-MDSC does not change.e-MDSC only shows differences in the early 3-month of treatment.Change of G-MDSC ratio may predict the effect of CML treatment.MDSCs can inhibit the proliferation of T lymphocyte,and inhibitory effect of G-MDSC is stronger than that of M-MDSC and e-MDSC.
3.Relationship between different subtypes of MDSC and tumor burden and predictive value of therapeutic effect in chronic myeloid leukemia patients
Zhongli HU ; Yanli YANG ; Jiajia LI ; Shaojun PAN
Chinese Journal of Immunology 2025;41(7):1566-1573
Objective:To investigate expression levels of various myeloid suppressor cells(MDSCs)in bone marrow of patients with chronic myeloid leukemia(CML),and the difference and correlation of expression levels of BCR-ABL fusion gene and WT1 in CML patients at different stages,and explore its clinical significance.To analyze and compare the distribution differences of various MDSCs in CML with different remission depths after treatment.Methods:Proportions of various MDSCs in 58 CML patients were de-tected by flow cytometry.Relative expressions of WT1 and BCR-ABL were detected by RQ-PCR.Iron deficiency anemia patients were served as control group,differences of the distribution of MDSCs in CML patients with different BCR-ABL expression,different WT1 expression,different CD34+cell numbers and different disease course,and expressions of various types of MDSC at 3,6,12 and 24 months after treatment in patients with chronic phase of CML were analyzed.At the same time,changes of cellular immune status in CML patients at different stages were detected,and correlations between the changes of lymphocyte subsets and MDSCs were compared.Results:Proportions of G-MDSC and e-MDSC in chronic phase of CML were significantly higher than that in normal control group(P<0.05).Proportions of G-MDSC and e-MDSC in CML patients in accelerated phase and blast crisis phase were significantly higher than that in CML patients in chronic phase(P<0.05).However,the difference in proportion of M-MDSC between accelerated phase of CML and chronic phase of CML had no statistical significance.Proportion of G-MDSC in CML patients was positively correlated with values of BCR-ABL,WT1 genes and proportion of CD34+cells(r=0.558 7,0.530 7,0.598 1),proportion of M-MDSC was positively correlated with values of BCR-ABL,WT1 genes and proportion of CD34+cells(r=0.132 1,0.144 6,0.157 8).Proportion of e-MDSC was positively correlated with values of BCR-ABL,WT1 genes and proportion of CD34+cells(r=0.604 3,0.620 7,0.625 9).G-MDSC was significantly lower in the best response group than that in warning/failure group at all stages of treatment.e-MDSC was differential in the best response and warning/failure groups at only 3 months of treatment.M-MDSC was not statistically significant in the best response and warning/failure groups at all stages of treatment.And only G-MDSC cell ratio was positively correlated with its BCR-ABL ratio(r=0.798 1).Per-centage of T lymphocyte in CML blast crisis phase was significantly lower than that in accelerated and chronic phases,while percentage of NK cells was higher.Only the proportion of G-MDSC was negatively correlated with the proportion of T lymphocyte(r=-0.815 2).Conclusion:Various MDSCs are positively correlated with BCR-ABL,WT1 gene and CD34+cells,and positively correlated with the tumor burden of CML patients,while the correlation of M-MDSC is weaker than that of G-MDSC and e-MDSC.With the remission of CML,G-MDSC decreases,while M-MDSC does not change.e-MDSC only shows differences in the early 3-month of treatment.Change of G-MDSC ratio may predict the effect of CML treatment.MDSCs can inhibit the proliferation of T lymphocyte,and inhibitory effect of G-MDSC is stronger than that of M-MDSC and e-MDSC.
4.Visual analysis of research hotspots and evolution of successful aging based on CiteSpace
Lan WANG ; Xiumei HOU ; Chunfeng HU ; Yan WANG ; Zhongli SHI
Chinese Journal of Modern Nursing 2024;30(2):198-204
Objective:To analyze the research status and development trend of successful aging at home and abroad, so as to provide references for the study of population aging in China.Methods:The literatures on successful aging included in China National Knowledge Infrastructure and Web of Science core collection from the establishment of database to April 2023 were retrieved, and CiteSpace software was used to analyze.Results:A total of 199 Chinese articles and 517 English articles were included. The number of articles published at home and abroad was generally on the rise, the published journals had certain authority, and a core group of domestic authors had been formed.Conclusions:Research hotspots at home and abroad involve influencing factors, study population, cognitive function, etc. This field is in the stage of discipline development and application diffusion. Physical and mental health of the elderly, successful aging at work, and healthy aging are the future development trends. In the future, international exchanges and cooperation should be strengthened, combined with the actual situation in China, further improve the related theories of successful aging and build a more scientific and localized successful aging system, so as to provide guidance for solving the problem of population aging.
5.Efficacy of retrograde intramedullary nailing in managing tibial osteofibrous dysplasia in pediatric patients
Zhaoqiang CHEN ; Jianping YANG ; Zhongli ZHANG ; Yongcheng HU ; Zhe FU ; Kan WANG ; Shuzhen DENG
Chinese Journal of Orthopaedics 2024;44(5):308-314
Objective:To delineate the surgical methodology and therapeutic paradigm of proximal tibial notch retrograde interlocking intramedullary nailing for ameliorating deformities due to osteofibrous dysplasia (OFD) in a pediatric population.Methods:A retrospective assessment was conducted on the medical records of individuals undergoing orthopedic osteotomy complemented by retrograde interlocking intramedullary nailing for OFD of the tibia from January 2016 to December 2019. The cohort comprised 15 patients, with a follow-up exceeding three years, documenting complete data sets. The patient profile included 8 males and 7 females, with 8 left-side and 7 right-side afflictions. The mean age at the time of surgery was 10.1±2.5 years, ranging from 7.1 to 12.6 years. Parameters measured were preoperative and postoperative imaging findings, which encompassed the scope of the lesion (longitudinal lesion length relative to tibial length), coronal and sagittal limb alignments, and lower limb length discrepancies.Results:The mean follow-up duration was 3.4±1.3 years, ranging from 3 to 6.6 years. Preoperatively, prominent anterior tibial arch deformities and limping were present, with 7 cases reporting fatigue-induced pain and 3 instances of pathological fractures. Post-surgery, pain symptoms were resolved, gait disturbances were improved in 9 patients, and completely resolved in 6. Tibial osteotomy or fracture healing of 15 patients averaged 3.9±0.7 months (range 3-5 months). The lesion range before surgery was 0.41±0.17, immediately after surgery was 0.38±0.17, and at the last follow-up was 0.30±0.16, with no statistical significance ( F=0.101, P=0.904). Lesion range showed no significant change throughout treatment, but radiographic density within the lesion notably increased post-surgery, suggesting bone improvement. The anterior tibial arch Angle was 28.30°±6.62° (range 20°-45°) before surgery, 4.73°±1.53° immediately after surgery, and 6.87°±1.36° at the last follow-up, with statistical significance ( F=159.739, P<0.001). A significant correction in the anterior tibial arch deformity was achieved and maintained postoperatively. There was no significant angular deformity of the tibia in the coronal plane before operation, and the medial proximal tibial angle (MPTA) and lateral distal tibial angle (LDTA) were 87.50°±1.46° and 88.30°±1.62°, 88.40°±1.46° and 88.70°±1.45° immediately after surgery, and 88.00°±1.39° and 89.10°±1.53° at the last follow-up, the differences were statistically significant ( F=1.741, P=0.188; F=1.016, P=0.371), there was no coronal deformity of tibia. The limb length discrepancy (LLD) was 0.60±0.98 cm before surgery, 0.18±0.93 cm at the last follow-up, with statistical significance ( t=0.096, P=0.761). There were no incidents of postoperative complications such as infection. Conclusion:In pediatric cases of tibial deformities attributed to osteofibrous dysplasia, a therapeutic strategy involving osteotomy for lower limb realignment, sans curettage or bone grafting of the lesion, followed by retrograde interlocking intramedullary nailing, yields favorable outcomes. Importantly, this implantation technique does not compromise the integrity of the proximal tibial epiphyseal plate in children and adolescents.
6.Clinical effect of plating after lengthening to assist the consolidation of tibial shortening in children
Shuzhen DENG ; Zhe FU ; Wuzeng WEI ; Kan WANG ; Zhaoqiang CHEN ; Zhongli ZHANG ; Jianping YANG ; Yongcheng HU
Chinese Journal of Orthopaedics 2024;44(6):362-371
Objective:To explore the clinical effect of plating after lengthening to assist the consolidation of tibial shortening deformity in children.Methods:A retrospective analysis was conducted on 10 children with tibial shortening who were treated with circular external fixator lengthening and replacement with plate-assisted internal fixation (study group) in the Department of Pediatric Orthopedics of Tianjin Hospital from November 2019 to October 2022, and 16 children who were treated by circular external fixator only during the same period were enrolled as the external fixator group (control group). Among the 26 cases, there were 15 males and 11 females, 10 left knees and 16 right knees. The average age at the time of surgery was 8.8±4.7 years (range 5.1-13.8 years). The gender, side, age at the time of surgery were compared between the two groups. The extension length, external fixator index, healing index, Kolcaba comfort scale score, knee and ankle joint range of motion, complications and average total hospitalization costs were recorded.Results:There were no significant differences in gender, side, age at the time of surgery between the study group and control group. The extended lengths were 5.44±1.25 cm and 5.78±1.11 cm respectively without significant difference ( t=0.096, P=0.096). The external fixator index and healing index were 17.86±2.94 d/cm vs. 50.97±7.03 d/cm and 40.94±6.63 d/cm vs. 45.24±5.98 d/cm in study group and the control group with significant differences ( t=13.299, P<0.001; t=1.289, P=0.033). The Kolcaba comfort scale score of the children in the study group was higher than that of the control group, with significant difference ( t=6.821, P=0.001). Comparing the range of motion of the knee and ankle joints between the two groups, there were no significant differences before surgery, at the end of extension surgery, and at the final follow-up. When the extension end was healed, the range of motion of the knee joint was137.89°±4.40° vs. 114.09°±13.60° and ankle joint was 64.35°±5.50° vs. 56.65°±8.86° in the study group and control group with significant difference ( t=17.235, P<0.001; t=7.821, P=0.002). In the study group, 4 cases had pin tract infection, but no refracture occurred; in the control group, pin tract infection occurred in 13 cases, and refracture occurred in 2 cases after removal of the external fixator. The average total hospitalization cost of the study group was higher than that of the control group with significant difference ( t=3.745, P=0.036). Conclusion:The clinical effect of replacing plate-assisted internal fixator during the mineralization period of tibial shortening in children is reliable, and can significantly shorten the time for using external fixator. It is beneficial to the healing of the extended end of the osteotomy and the functional recovery of the knee and ankle joints. Being more comfortable for children with fewer complications, it is applicable for children who need long-distance extension, multiple extensions with limited joint function, poor tolerance for external fixators and low treatment compliance.
7.A multicenter study of R-ISS staging combined with frailty biomarkers to predict the prognosis and early death in newly diagnosed elderly multiple myeloma patients
Yingjie ZHANG ; Hua XUE ; Mengyao LI ; Jianmei XU ; Xinyue LIANG ; Weiling XU ; Xiaoqi QIN ; Qiang GUO ; Shanshan YU ; Peiyu YANG ; Mengru TIAN ; Tingting YUE ; Mengxue ZHANG ; Yurong YAN ; Zhongli HU ; Nan ZHANG ; Jingxuan WANG ; Fengyan JIN
Chinese Journal of Geriatrics 2023;42(10):1207-1212
Objective:To improve the prognosis stratification, especially early mortality(EM), of elderly patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma(NDMM).Methods:In this retrospective study, univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis were conducted to identify the independent prognostic factors associated with overall survival(OS)and the chi-square test and multivariate Logistic analysis were used to identify the prognostic factors associated with EM in 223 elderly patients(age≥65 years)with NDMM from three centers in the country.Results:Increased NT-pro-BNP(≥300 pg/ml), ECOG-PS≥2 and stage Ⅲ R-ISS were identified as three independent adverse prognostic factors of OS.The rates of EM3, EM6, EM12 and EM24 were 12.1%, 20.1%, 32.2% and 60%, respectively.The most common cause for EM6(particularly EM3)was disease-related complications resulting from ineligibility for treatment due to poor physical performance, severe organ dysfunction or treatment discontinuation due to treatment intolerance, while the most common cause for EM12(particularly EM24)was disease progression or relapse mainly as a result of inadequate treatment.R-ISS staging failed to predict EM, while decreased eGFR, ECOG-PS≥2, and increased NT-pro-BNP were able to estimate the risk of EM, with increased NT-pro-BNP as a common independent factor for EM12( P=0.03)and EM24( P=0.015). Conclusions:R-ISS staging, which primarily reflects MM biology, cannot predict EM.However, factors such as NT-pro-BNP, eGFR and ECOG-PS associated with frailty and impairment of organ functions can be used to estimate the risk of EM, among which NT-pro-BNP may be the most important independent factor for EM.Therefore, incorporation of these frailty-related biomarkers into R-ISS staging may be able to more precisely estimate the prognosis and particularly early death of elderly patients with NDMM.
8.Study of low-dose CT scan volume rendering technology in evaluating the physeal bar in children
Shuzhen DENG ; Sipin LUO ; Zhe FU ; Kan WANG ; Zhaoqiang CHEN ; Jianping YANG ; Yongcheng HU ; Zhongli ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Orthopaedics 2022;42(8):492-499
Objective:To evaluate the feasibility of CT volume rendering technology in the assessment of the physeal bar in children.Methods:A retrospective analysis of the relevant CT data of 20 patients with physeal bar from January 2019 to December 2021, 13 boys and 7 girls, age 9.94±2.91 years. The etiology included 17 cases of trauma, 1 cases of tumor, and 2 cases of unknown. The affected sites included 9 cases of distal femur, 5 cases of proximal tibia, 3 cases of distal tibia, and 3 cases of distal radius. Evaluate using volume rendering technology and traditional surface reconstruction technology respectively and the index include the size and type of physeal bar.Results:All the children were successfully examined at one time, and none of them required sedation. The average exposure time was 3.81±0.83 s. During scanning, only low-dose radiation was performed on the affected joints, and routine radiation protection was performed. Using volume rendering technology to evaluate the proportion of the physeal bar, the results obtained by the three testers were 25.36%±15.36%, 24.75%±16.18%, 26.70%±17.72%, and the intraclass correlation coefficient value ( ICC) was 0.976, the three repeated measurements by one tester were 25.36%±15.36%, 25.41%±15.20%, 25.74%±16.00% ( ICC=0.990). Compared with the traditional curved planar reconstruction technical evaluation, the results obtained by the three testers were 28.36%±16.74%, 23.66%±19.87%, 35.25%±15.92% ( ICC=0.737), the three repeated measurement results by one tester were 28.36%±16.74%, 31.66%±13.06%, 30.89%±12.52% ( ICC=0.875). The volume rendering technology was better than the curved planar reconstruction technique. Paired t test was performed on the measurement results of three evaluators and the three repeated measurements of the same evaluator, and the differences were statistically significant ( P<0.05). The same results were acquired by using volume rendering technology to evaluate the type of phseal bar with three testers; but there were 18 cases had the same results by using curved planar reconstruction technology and 2 cases had differences, showing the volume rendering technology was more accurate. Conclusion:Low-dose CT scanning volume rendering technology is an effective method to evaluate the physeal bar in children. It can more intuitively and accurately evaluate the proportion and type of the bar while reducing the radiation exposure of children. The consistency with inter-group and intra-group is better than traditional curved planar reconstruction technique with good reproducibility and clinical significance.
9.Feasibility study of correcting distal femoral valgus deformity with fixator-assisted plating technique in adolescent
Shuzhen DENG ; Jianping YANG ; Yongcheng HU ; Zhongli ZHANG ; Kan WANG ; Zhe FU ; Zhaoqiang CHEN ; Dawei QU ; Huadong ZHANG ; Anhui CHEN ; Gengfeng JI
Chinese Journal of Orthopaedics 2021;41(12):780-789
Objective:Comparing with the external fixator technique, investigate the clinical effect of fixator-assisted plating technique for treatment distal femoral valgus deformity in adolescent.Methods:A retrospective analysis of the relevant data of 22 patients (25 limbs) with acute correction of distal femoral valgus deformities from July 2015 to June 2019, according to the difference of the final fixation, they were divided two groups. The fixator-assisted plating group, including 8 patients (9 limbs), 5 boys and 3 girls, 5 left and 2 right, 1 bilateral, the physis were closed in 4 cases and opened in 4 cases, age 14.04±1.99 years (11.7-18 years). The external fixator group, including 14 patients (16 limbs), 6 boys and 8 girls, 8 left and 4 right, 2 bilateral, the physis were closed in 9 cases and opened in 5 cases, age 13.33±1.88 years (10.1-16.5 years). Measuring the mechanical axis deviation (MAD) and the mechanical lateral distal femur angle (mLDFA) in full length standing AP view X-ray of the lower limb pre and post operation. Recording the changed of limb length discrepancy (LLD) before and after surgery and the knee range of motion at 6 weeks, 3 months, 6 months and the last follow up post operation. The Kolcaba comfort status scale was used to evaluate the comfort of two groups at 2 weeks, 6 weeks, 3 months, 6 months and the last follow up. Meanwhile recorded the healing time of osteotomy sites and the complications.Results:The difference in general information between the two groups was not statistically significant. The fixator-assisted plating group followed up mean 26 months (range, 12-40 months), the healing time were 4.00±0.66 months, the mLDFA mean 73.33°±4.12° before surgery and 87.89°±1.69° after surgery and there was significant difference ( t=10.582, P<0.05). The external fixator group followed up mean 36 months (range, 22-42 months), the healing time were 4.00±0.66 months, the mLDFA mean 73.31°±3.95° before surgery and 87.31°±1.54° after surgery and there was significant difference ( t=14.118, P<0.05). The MAD were in the normal range in all patients after surgery, and there were no significant difference about healing time of the osteotomy sites and postoperative mLDFA between the two groups ( t=1.514, P=0.150; t=0.845, P=0.411). Comparing with the knee function, the fixator-assisted plating group was better at 6 weeks, 3 months, 6 months after surgery but there was no difference at the last follow up. Also, the fixator-assisted plating group felt more comfortable at 2 weeks, 6 weeks, 3 months, 6 months and there was no difference at the last follow up. All the patients with external fixator have mild pin sites infection and there were no obvious complications in patients with plate. Conclusion:The fixator-assisted plating technique can accurately correct the valgus deformity with satisfactory healing of the osteotomy in distal femoral compare with the external fixator technique, but the patients feel more comfortable and the knee joint function recovers faster and no risk of pin site infection, the clinical results was satisfactory with fewer complication.
10.A predictive model based on risk factors for early mortality in patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma
Mengru TIAN ; Peiyu YANG ; Tingting YUE ; Mengyao LI ; Yingjie ZHANG ; Mengxue ZHANG ; Limo ZHANG ; Yurong YAN ; Zhongli HU ; Yazhe DU ; Yuying LI ; Fengyan JIN
Chinese Journal of Hematology 2021;42(8):666-672
Objective:To investigate risk factors for early mortality (EM) in patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM) and to build an EM-predictive model.Methods:In a cohort of 275 patients with NDMM, risk factors for EM at 6, 12, and 24 months after diagnosis (EM6, EM12, and EM24, respectively) were determined to establish a model to predict EM.Results:The rates of EM6, EM12, and EM24 were 5.5% , 12.7% , and 30.2% , respectively. The most common cause for EM was disease progression/relapse, accounting for 60.0% , 77.1% , and 84.3% of EM6, EM12, and EM24, respectively. EM6 was associated with corrected serum calcium >2.75 mmol/L and platelet count <100×10 9/L, whereas risk factors for EM12 included age >75 years, ISS Ⅲ, R-ISS Ⅲ, corrected serum calcium >2.75 mmol/L, serum creatinine >177 μmol/L, platelet count <100×10 9/L, and bone marrow plasma cell ratio ≥ 60% . In addition to the risk factors for EM12, EM24 was also associated with male sex and 1q21 gain. By multivariate analysis, age >75 years, platelet count <100×10 9/L, and 1q21 gain were independent risk factors for EM24 but there were no independent risk factors significantly associated with EM6 and EM12. Using a scoring system including these three risk factors, a Cox model for EM24 was generated to distinguish patients with low (score<3) and high (score ≥ 3) risk. The sensitivity and specificity of the model were 20.7% and 99.2% , respectively. Further, an internal validation performed in a cohort of 183 patients with NDMM revealed that the probability of EM24 in high-risk patients was 26 times higher than that in low-risk patients. Moreover, this model was also able to predict overall survival. The median overall survival of patients with scores of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 were 59, 41, 22, 17.5, and 16 months, respectively. Conclusion:In the study cohort, the EM6, EM12, and EM24 rates were 5.5% , 12.7% , and 30.2% , respectively, and disease progression or relapse were main causes of EM. An EM24-predictive model built on three independent risk factors for EM24 (age>75 years, platelet count<100×10 9/L, and 1q21 gain) might predict EM risk and overall survival.

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