Objective To explore scientific and accurate prediction methods for the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in the post-pandemic era, and to address modeling challenges caused by abnormal fluctuations in case numbers from 2020 to 2023. Methods The seasonal index was used to pre-process the data. The traditional seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, singular spectrum analysis (SSA)-ARIMA model, ARIMA-Long short-term memory (LSTM) model, and SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model were used to fit the incidence from 2013 to 2023, and the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in 2024 was predicted. The real data collected in 2024 were used as the test set to compare the prediction performance of the models. Results The fitting performance of the constructed models was as follows: the ARIMA model had MAE=107.50 and RMSE=144.53, the SSA-ARIMA model showed MAE=2.84 and RMSE=4.33, the ARIMA-LSTM model achieved MAE=99.46 and RMSE=131.59, and the SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model had MAE=96.35 and RMSE=132.13. In terms of prediction performance, the ARIMA model resulted in MAE=151.64 and RMSE=146.70, the SSA-ARIMA model demonstrated MAE=41.22 and RMSE=57.01, the ARIMA-LSTM model yielded MAE=220.75 and RMSE=257.89, and the SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model recorded MAE=58.83 and RMSE=72.06. Conclusion The SSA-ARIMA model has the best fitting degree and the highest prediction accuracy, and is suitable for predicting the incidence trend of hand, foot and mouth disease.

Although enteric glial cell (EGC) abnormal activation is reported to be involved in the pathogenesis of Parkinson's disease (PD), and inhibition of EGC gliosis alleviated gut and dopaminergic neuronal dysfunction was verified in our previous study, the potential role of gut microbiota on EGC function in PD still need to be addressed. In the present study, fecal microbiota transplantation revealed that EGC function was regulated by gut microbiota. By employing 16S rRNA and metabolomic analysis, we identified that 3-indolepropionic acid (IPA) was the most affected differential microbial metabolite that regulated EGC gliosis. The protective effects of IPA on PD were validated in rotenone-stimulated EGCs and rotenone (30 mg/kg i.g. for 4 weeks)-induced PD mice, as indicated by decreased inflammation, improved intestinal and brain barrier as well as dopaminergic neuronal function. Mechanistic study showed that IPA targeted pregnane X receptor (PXR) in EGCs, and inhibition of IL-13Rα1 involved cytokine-cytokine receptor interaction pathway, leading to inactivation of downstream JAK1-STAT6 pathway. Our data not only provided evidence that EGC gliosis was critical in spreading intestinal damage to brain, but also highlighted the potential role of microbial metabolite IPA in alleviating PD pathological damages through gut-brain axis.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1016/j.apsb.2025.02.029.].

One of the basic questions in the aging field is whether there is a fundamental difference between the aging of lower invertebrates and mammals. A major difference between the lower invertebrates and mammals is the abundancy of noncoding RNAs, most of which are not conserved. We have previously identified a noncoding RNA Terc-53 that is derived from the RNA component of telomerase Terc. To study its physiological functions, we generated two transgenic mouse models overexpressing the RNA in wild-type and early-aging Terc-/- backgrounds. Terc-53 mice showed age-related cognition decline and shortened life span, even though no developmental defects or physiological abnormality at an early age was observed, indicating its involvement in normal aging of mammals. Subsequent mechanistic study identified hyaluronan-mediated motility receptor (Hmmr) as the main effector of Terc-53. Terc-53 mediates the degradation of Hmmr, leading to an increase of inflammation in the affected tissues, accelerating organismal aging. adeno-associated virus delivered supplementation of Hmmr in the hippocampus reversed the cognition decline in Terc-53 transgenic mice. Neither Terc-53 nor Hmmr has homologs in C. elegans. Neither do arthropods express hyaluronan. These findings demonstrate the complexity of aging in mammals and open new paths for exploring noncoding RNA and Hmmr as means of treating age-related physical debilities and improving healthspan.
Animals ; Mice ; RNA, Untranslated/metabolism* ; Aging/genetics* ; Mice, Transgenic ; Telomerase/metabolism* ; RNA/genetics* ; Hippocampus/metabolism* ; Humans ; Mice, Inbred C57BL

Objective:To assess the long-term risk of relapse in patients with Crohn's disease (CD) who discontinued infliximab (IFX) monoclonal antibody and to identify risk factors associated with relapse.Methods:A single-center retrospective observational study was conducted from February 2006 to October 2016. The study included CD patients who were treated with scheduled IFX infusions at the First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University and assessed in corticosteroid-free clinical remission at the time of withdrawal were included. The primary outcome was clinical relapse. We evaluated the risk of relapse using Kaplan-Meier method. Factors associated with time to relapse was identified using the multiple Cox proportional hazards regression analysis.Results:We included 97 eligible patients, and 75 (77.3%) experienced a relapse after a median follow-up time of 124 months. Among them, 45 patients (46.4%) relapsed within 3 years after IFX withdrawal. The 1-, 2-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year relapse-free survival were 79.4%, 59.8%, 52.6%, 42.0% and 22.6%, respectively. Risk factors for relapse included age ≤ 16 ( HR = 2.62, 95% CI: 1.30-5.31; P = 0.007) and failure to achieve biological remission (CRP > 3 mg/L, HR = 2.37, 95% CI: 1.29-4.36; P = 0.006) at drug withdrawal. Induction with biologics or systemic steroids were both effective (89%-100% relieved) in relapsers. Conclusions:Nearly half of CD patients relapsed within 3 years after discontinuation of IFX treatment. Early age of discontinuation and failure to achieve serum biological remission at the time of discontinuation are independent predictors of clinical relapse.

Objective:To investigate the dosimetric impact of dwell position spacing in the design of three-dimensional (3D) interstitial brachytherapy plans for cervical cancer, and to provide a reference for selecting dwell spacing in clinical planning.Methods:A total of 15 patients with cervical cancer who underwent 3D interstitial brachytherapy at Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute & Hospital between March 2022 and March 2024 were selected using simple random sampling. For each patient, 10 brachytherapy plans were generated with different dwell position spacings set at 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 mm, respectively. Key parameters among different dwell spacings compared included D 90%, V 100%, V 200%, and V 300% for the high-risk clinical target volume (HRCTV); D 90% for the intermediate-risk clinical target volume (IRCTV); D 2 cm3 for organs at risk (OARs) (bladder, small intestine, colon, and rectum); and the total dwell time. Statistical analyses were performed using repeated measurement ANOVA or the Friedman test. Results:Among different dwell spacings, there were no statistically significant differences in HRCTV D 90%, HRCTV V 100%, bladder D 2 cm3, and rectum D 2 cm3 among different dwell spacings ( P=0.075, 0.061, 0.480, 0.639). All plans with dwell spacings ≤ 3 mm met clinical dose requirements. When the dwell spacing was set to 1 mm, HRCTV V 200% and V 300% had the smallest mean values, while IRCTV D 90% and total dwell time had the largest mean values; all differences were statistically significant ( P<0.05). When the dwell spacing was ≥6 mm, an increase in spacing led to a decrease in mean small intestine D 2 cm3, and total dwell time, but an increase in HRCTV V 200% and a decrease in IRCTV D 90%, with statistically significant differences compared to spacings of 1-4 mm ( P<0.05). When the dwell spacing was ≥8 mm, the median colon D 2 cm3 decreased, with statistically significant differences compared to spacings of 1-3 mm ( P<0.05). Conclusions:For 3D interstitial brachytherapy planning in cervical cancer, dwell position spacings ≤ 3 mm can meet clinical dose requirements, with 1 mm providing optimal target coverage. Spacings ≥6 mm / ≥8 mm can reduce radiation dose to the small intestine and colon, respectively, while also shortening dwell time.

Objectives:We evaluated the clinical significance of unipolar electrogram and bipolar electrogram in guiding radiofrequency ablation for outflow tract ventricular premature contractions(PVC).Methods:Data were collected from 78 patients who underwent successful radiofrequency ablation of PVC.Pre-procedure electrocardiogram showed a LBBB morphology on inferior leads.In the included patients,the right-side ablation was performed at first,and if the ablation failed,the left-side ablation was then performed.According to the location of the successful ablation target,they were divided into unilateral ablation successful group and bilateral ablation successful group.The differences in the earliest bipolar local activation to QRS(LATBi),unipolar-dV/dTmax to QRS(LATUni),and local activation time were compared between the two groups.Furthermore,the electrogram characteristics predicting bilateral ablation were explored.Results:Patients were divided into unilateral ablation group(n=57)and bilateral ablation group(n=21)according to the ablation site.There were statistically significant differences in LATBi(25[21,30]ms vs.14[10,24]ms),LATUni(7[0,17]ms vs.-23[-41,-11]ms),and ΔLATBi-Uni(15[11,25]ms vs.44[25,56]ms)between the unilateral ablation group and the bilateral ablation group(all P<0.05).Multivariate regression analysis suggested that LATBi,LATUni,and ΔLATBi-Uni were independent predictors of the need for bilateral ablation.There was no significant difference between left and right LATBi,LATUni and ΔLATBi-Uni in the bilateral ablation group.LATUni≤-1 was the most accurate parameter for predicting the need for bilateral ablation(AUC=0.941;specificity 80.7%;sensitivity 100%).Conclusions:LATUni≤-1ms is a useful indicator for predicting the need for bilateral PVC ablation in this patient cohort.

Objective:To assess the long-term risk of relapse in patients with Crohn's disease (CD) who discontinued infliximab (IFX) monoclonal antibody and to identify risk factors associated with relapse.Methods:A single-center retrospective observational study was conducted from February 2006 to October 2016. The study included CD patients who were treated with scheduled IFX infusions at the First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University and assessed in corticosteroid-free clinical remission at the time of withdrawal were included. The primary outcome was clinical relapse. We evaluated the risk of relapse using Kaplan-Meier method. Factors associated with time to relapse was identified using the multiple Cox proportional hazards regression analysis.Results:We included 97 eligible patients, and 75 (77.3%) experienced a relapse after a median follow-up time of 124 months. Among them, 45 patients (46.4%) relapsed within 3 years after IFX withdrawal. The 1-, 2-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year relapse-free survival were 79.4%, 59.8%, 52.6%, 42.0% and 22.6%, respectively. Risk factors for relapse included age ≤ 16 ( HR = 2.62, 95% CI: 1.30-5.31; P = 0.007) and failure to achieve biological remission (CRP > 3 mg/L, HR = 2.37, 95% CI: 1.29-4.36; P = 0.006) at drug withdrawal. Induction with biologics or systemic steroids were both effective (89%-100% relieved) in relapsers. Conclusions:Nearly half of CD patients relapsed within 3 years after discontinuation of IFX treatment. Early age of discontinuation and failure to achieve serum biological remission at the time of discontinuation are independent predictors of clinical relapse.

Objectives:We evaluated the clinical significance of unipolar electrogram and bipolar electrogram in guiding radiofrequency ablation for outflow tract ventricular premature contractions(PVC).Methods:Data were collected from 78 patients who underwent successful radiofrequency ablation of PVC.Pre-procedure electrocardiogram showed a LBBB morphology on inferior leads.In the included patients,the right-side ablation was performed at first,and if the ablation failed,the left-side ablation was then performed.According to the location of the successful ablation target,they were divided into unilateral ablation successful group and bilateral ablation successful group.The differences in the earliest bipolar local activation to QRS(LATBi),unipolar-dV/dTmax to QRS(LATUni),and local activation time were compared between the two groups.Furthermore,the electrogram characteristics predicting bilateral ablation were explored.Results:Patients were divided into unilateral ablation group(n=57)and bilateral ablation group(n=21)according to the ablation site.There were statistically significant differences in LATBi(25[21,30]ms vs.14[10,24]ms),LATUni(7[0,17]ms vs.-23[-41,-11]ms),and ΔLATBi-Uni(15[11,25]ms vs.44[25,56]ms)between the unilateral ablation group and the bilateral ablation group(all P<0.05).Multivariate regression analysis suggested that LATBi,LATUni,and ΔLATBi-Uni were independent predictors of the need for bilateral ablation.There was no significant difference between left and right LATBi,LATUni and ΔLATBi-Uni in the bilateral ablation group.LATUni≤-1 was the most accurate parameter for predicting the need for bilateral ablation(AUC=0.941;specificity 80.7%;sensitivity 100%).Conclusions:LATUni≤-1ms is a useful indicator for predicting the need for bilateral PVC ablation in this patient cohort.

Objective:To investigate the dosimetric impact of dwell position spacing in the design of three-dimensional (3D) interstitial brachytherapy plans for cervical cancer, and to provide a reference for selecting dwell spacing in clinical planning.Methods:A total of 15 patients with cervical cancer who underwent 3D interstitial brachytherapy at Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute & Hospital between March 2022 and March 2024 were selected using simple random sampling. For each patient, 10 brachytherapy plans were generated with different dwell position spacings set at 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 mm, respectively. Key parameters among different dwell spacings compared included D 90%, V 100%, V 200%, and V 300% for the high-risk clinical target volume (HRCTV); D 90% for the intermediate-risk clinical target volume (IRCTV); D 2 cm3 for organs at risk (OARs) (bladder, small intestine, colon, and rectum); and the total dwell time. Statistical analyses were performed using repeated measurement ANOVA or the Friedman test. Results:Among different dwell spacings, there were no statistically significant differences in HRCTV D 90%, HRCTV V 100%, bladder D 2 cm3, and rectum D 2 cm3 among different dwell spacings ( P=0.075, 0.061, 0.480, 0.639). All plans with dwell spacings ≤ 3 mm met clinical dose requirements. When the dwell spacing was set to 1 mm, HRCTV V 200% and V 300% had the smallest mean values, while IRCTV D 90% and total dwell time had the largest mean values; all differences were statistically significant ( P<0.05). When the dwell spacing was ≥6 mm, an increase in spacing led to a decrease in mean small intestine D 2 cm3, and total dwell time, but an increase in HRCTV V 200% and a decrease in IRCTV D 90%, with statistically significant differences compared to spacings of 1-4 mm ( P<0.05). When the dwell spacing was ≥8 mm, the median colon D 2 cm3 decreased, with statistically significant differences compared to spacings of 1-3 mm ( P<0.05). Conclusions:For 3D interstitial brachytherapy planning in cervical cancer, dwell position spacings ≤ 3 mm can meet clinical dose requirements, with 1 mm providing optimal target coverage. Spacings ≥6 mm / ≥8 mm can reduce radiation dose to the small intestine and colon, respectively, while also shortening dwell time.