Objective:To investigate the prognostic factors for esophageal cancer after radical resection and the application value of machine learning prediction model.Methods:The retrospective cohort study was conducted. The clinicopatholigical data of 406 esophageal cancer patients who were admitted to Qilu Hospital of Shandong University from January 2018 to March 2022 were collected. There were 357 males and 49 females, aged (64±8)years. All patients underwent radical resection of esophageal cancer. The 406 patients were randomly divided into a training set of 285 cases and a validation set of 121 cases at a 7∶3 ratio based on a random number table. The training set was used to construct prediction model, and the validation set was used to validate prediction model. Patients were divided into high-risk group and low-risk group based on risk scores. Observation indicators: (1) follow-up of patients and analysis of influencing factors for prognosis; (2) construction and validation of machine learning prediction models. Comparison of measurement data with normal distribution between groups was conducted using the independent sample t test. Comparison of measurement data with skewed distribution between groups was conducted using the Mann-Whitney U test. Comparison of count data between groups was conducted using the chi-square test. Comparison of ordinal data between groups was conducted using the rank sum test. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate survival rate and plot survival curve, and the Log-rank test was used for survival analysis. The Cox proportional hazard regression model was used for univariate and multivariate analyses. Independent influencing factors were included, and data processing, machine learning model construction, and visualization were performed using R packages including random survival forest (RSF), gradient boosting machine (GBM), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator Cox regression (LASSO-Cox), Cox proportional hazards model boosting (CoxBoost), survival support vector machine (survivalsvm), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), supervised principal component analysis (SuperPC), and Cox partial least squares regression (plsRcox). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were drawn, and sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve (AUC) were calculated. The Delong test was used to assess the differences in AUC among different models in the training set, and the time-dependent ROC was used to compare the predictive performance of different models. Calibration curves were used to evaluate model accuracy, and decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to evaluate overall net benefit. Results:(1) Follow-up of patients and analysis of influencing factors for prognosis. All 406 patients were followed up postoperatively for 28(range, 6-36)months, with 1- and 3-year overall survival rate of 86.5% and 40.9%, respectively. The 285 patients in the training set were followed up postoperatively for 30(range, 6-36)months, with 1- and 3-year overall survival rate of 85.1% and 35.5%, respectively. The 121 patients in the validation set were followed up postoperatively for 25(range, 6-36)months, with 1- and 3-year overall survival rate of 87.0% and 43.2%, respectively. There was no significant difference in postoperative overall survival rate between the training set and the validation set ( χ2=3.20, P>0.05). Results of multivariate analysis showed that left thoracic surgical approach, preopera-tive neutrophil count, vascular invasion, perineural invasion, pathological T2-4 stage, pathological N2-3 stage, and postoperative pneumonia were independent risk factors affecting postoperative survival of 285 patients in the training set ( hazard ratio=1.466, 1.037, 1.482, 1.549, 5.268, 7.727, 22.202, 2.539, 2.686, 1.425, 95% confidence interval as 1.026-2.096, 1.003-1.073, 1.008-2.179, 1.105-2.170, 1.201-23.099, 1.833-32.576, 4.734-104.128, 1.577-4.087, 1.631-4.422, 1.018-1.994, P<0.05). (2) Construction and validation of machine learning prediction models. Independent risk factors affecting postoperative survival were included to construct RSF, GBM, LASSO-Cox, CoxBoost, survivalsvm, XGBoost, SuperPC, and plsRcox machine learning prediction models. Results of Delong test showed that there were significant differences in the AUC of RSF and GBM from the other six models ( P<0.05). Results of time-dependent ROC curve showed that all 8 machine learning predic-tion models had good discriminative ability in the training cohort, among which the RSF machine learning prediction model had the best predictive performance. Results of calibration curve showed that the RSF machine learning prediction model fitted well for predicting postoperative 1-, 2-, and 3-year overall survival in the training cohort, with high consistency with actual results. Results of decision curve analysis showed that within a threshold range of 0-0.80, the RSF machine learning prediction model provided a better overall net benefit. Further analysis showed that in the validation set, the AUC of RSF machine learning prediction model for postoperative 1-, 2-, and 3-year survival prediction were 0.786 (95% confidence interval as 0.609-0.962), 0.774 (95% confidence interval as 0.676-0.873), and 0.750 (95% confidence interval as 0.652-0.848), respectively. Results of calibration curve showed that the RSF machine learning prediction model fitted well for predicting postopera-tive 1-, 2-, and 3-year overall survival in the validation set, with high consistency with actual results. In the training set, the optimal cutoff value of the RSF machine learning prediction model risk score was 11.7. Patients with risk score ≥11.7 were classified as the high-risk group, and those with risk score <11.7 as the low-risk group. The median survival times of the two groups were 18.0 months and >36.0 months, respectively, showing a significant difference between them ( χ2=73.30, P<0.05). In the validation set, the optimal cutoff value of the RSF machine learning prediction model risk score was 11.7. Patients with risk score ≥11.7 were classified as the high-risk group, and those with risk score<11.7 as the low-risk group. The median survival times of the two groups were 17.0 months and>36.0 months for the high-risk and low-risk groups, respectively, showing a significant difference between them ( χ2=35.20, P<0.05). Conclusions:Left thoracic surgical approach, preoperative neutrophil count, vascular invasion, perineural invasion, pathological T2-4 stage, pathological N2-3 stage, and postoperative pneumonia are independent risk factors affecting survival of esophageal cancer patients after radical resection. The RSF machine learning prediction model constructed based on these factors can effectively distinguish the survival prognosis of high-risk and low-risk patients.

Objective:To explore differences in the efficacy and safety of ruxolitinib in patients with myelofibrosis by age and to identify prognostic factors by analyzing clinical features and characteristics of chromosomes and gene mutations.Methods:This study retrospectively analyzed 188 patients with myelofibrosis who received ruxolitinib in the Department of Hematology, Qilu Hospital, Shandong University from January 1, 2017, to July 1, 2024. According to age at diagnosis, the patients were divided into the middle-aged group (≤55 years), young elderly group (56-65 years), and elderly group (>65 years). Clinical features, the characteristics of chromosomes and gene mutations, and the efficacy and safety of ruxolitinib treatment were compared across the three age groups. Independent factors influencing overall survival were identified through Cox proportional risk regression analysis.Results:Before treatment, the elderly group had more underlying comorbidities, a heavier symptom burden, higher leukocyte count, higher proportion and frequency of JAK2 mutations, and lower proportion of CALR mutations. The incidence of nondriver gene mutations was significantly higher in the young elderly group. After ruxolitinib treatment, the degree of reduction in spleen size did not differ significantly among the three groups. The length of the palpable spleen below the left costal margin reduced by more than 50% from baseline in 50.9% (27/53) of the patients in the middle-aged group, 43.5% (27/62) in the young elderly group, and 45.5% (20/44) in the elderly group ( P=0.720). No significant difference was observed among the three groups in the degree of reduction in Myeloproliferative Neoplasm Symptom Assessment Form (10-item version) score ( P=0.153), with a reduction in total symptom score by more than 50% achieved by 54.0% (27/50), 60.3% (41/68), and 66.7% (34/51) of the patients from the three groups, respectively ( P=0.429). The most common hematological adverse events were anemia and thrombocytopenia, while the most common nonhematological adverse events were electrolyte disturbance, elevated transaminase activity, and pulmonary infection. Multivariate analysis indicated that in ruxolitinib-treated patients with myelofibrosis, poor overall survival was independently predicted by increased age, reduced hemoglobin, percentage of bone marrow blasts ≥ 1%, absence of JAK2 mutations, chromosomal abnormalities, ≥2 high-molecular-risk mutations, and TP53 mutations. Conclusions:Patients with myelofibrosis stratified by age exhibited heterogeneous clinical features and gene mutation profiles but similar efficacy of ruxolitinib treatment and occurrence of adverse events.

Objective:To explore the correlation between intestinal flora disturbance and the diagnosis,treatment of rheumatoid arthritis(RA),and to provide bioinformatics basis for further research on precise targeted intervention of RA.Methods:Genes related to intestinal flora disorders and RA genes were downloaded from disease database.Correlation between the two diseases was analyzed via bioinformatics approach.PPI network was conducted by STRING,Cytoscape and their plug-ins,and key genes were screened.Key genes were mapped into Coremine Medicinal to identify medicinal chemicals and medicinal herbs.Results:A total of 525 genes shared by intestinal flora disorders and RA were obtained through integrated screening of the disease database,and key genes with the highest degree of protein interaction were finally selected,namely IL-6,IL-1β,TNF-α,IL-10,STAT3,STAT1 and RELA.These related tar-geted genes were mainly involved in biological processes such as negative feedback regulation and antigen stimulation,and mediate molecular functions such as lipopolysaccharide receptor binding and NF-κB receptor binding,which are mainly concentrated in the plasma membrane region.KEGG analysis showed that these related genes were mainly involved in classical signaling pathways such as IL-17 pathway and Toll-like receptor pathway.Through drug prediction,it was found that Astragalus,Scutellaria,Schisandra and Cop-tis in traditional Chinese medicine might be potential drug sources for RA treatment.Conclusion:Bioinformatics method can predict key genes and signaling pathways of intestinal flora intervention in pathogenesis and progression of RA,and predict the Chinese herbs that may target the regulation of flora for treatment of risk factors,which providing a theoretical basis for further exploration of targeted treatment of RA.

Objective:To explore the correlation between intestinal flora disturbance and the diagnosis,treatment of rheumatoid arthritis(RA),and to provide bioinformatics basis for further research on precise targeted intervention of RA.Methods:Genes related to intestinal flora disorders and RA genes were downloaded from disease database.Correlation between the two diseases was analyzed via bioinformatics approach.PPI network was conducted by STRING,Cytoscape and their plug-ins,and key genes were screened.Key genes were mapped into Coremine Medicinal to identify medicinal chemicals and medicinal herbs.Results:A total of 525 genes shared by intestinal flora disorders and RA were obtained through integrated screening of the disease database,and key genes with the highest degree of protein interaction were finally selected,namely IL-6,IL-1β,TNF-α,IL-10,STAT3,STAT1 and RELA.These related tar-geted genes were mainly involved in biological processes such as negative feedback regulation and antigen stimulation,and mediate molecular functions such as lipopolysaccharide receptor binding and NF-κB receptor binding,which are mainly concentrated in the plasma membrane region.KEGG analysis showed that these related genes were mainly involved in classical signaling pathways such as IL-17 pathway and Toll-like receptor pathway.Through drug prediction,it was found that Astragalus,Scutellaria,Schisandra and Cop-tis in traditional Chinese medicine might be potential drug sources for RA treatment.Conclusion:Bioinformatics method can predict key genes and signaling pathways of intestinal flora intervention in pathogenesis and progression of RA,and predict the Chinese herbs that may target the regulation of flora for treatment of risk factors,which providing a theoretical basis for further exploration of targeted treatment of RA.

Objective:To investigate the prognostic factors for esophageal cancer after radical resection and the application value of machine learning prediction model.Methods:The retrospective cohort study was conducted. The clinicopatholigical data of 406 esophageal cancer patients who were admitted to Qilu Hospital of Shandong University from January 2018 to March 2022 were collected. There were 357 males and 49 females, aged (64±8)years. All patients underwent radical resection of esophageal cancer. The 406 patients were randomly divided into a training set of 285 cases and a validation set of 121 cases at a 7∶3 ratio based on a random number table. The training set was used to construct prediction model, and the validation set was used to validate prediction model. Patients were divided into high-risk group and low-risk group based on risk scores. Observation indicators: (1) follow-up of patients and analysis of influencing factors for prognosis; (2) construction and validation of machine learning prediction models. Comparison of measurement data with normal distribution between groups was conducted using the independent sample t test. Comparison of measurement data with skewed distribution between groups was conducted using the Mann-Whitney U test. Comparison of count data between groups was conducted using the chi-square test. Comparison of ordinal data between groups was conducted using the rank sum test. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate survival rate and plot survival curve, and the Log-rank test was used for survival analysis. The Cox proportional hazard regression model was used for univariate and multivariate analyses. Independent influencing factors were included, and data processing, machine learning model construction, and visualization were performed using R packages including random survival forest (RSF), gradient boosting machine (GBM), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator Cox regression (LASSO-Cox), Cox proportional hazards model boosting (CoxBoost), survival support vector machine (survivalsvm), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), supervised principal component analysis (SuperPC), and Cox partial least squares regression (plsRcox). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were drawn, and sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve (AUC) were calculated. The Delong test was used to assess the differences in AUC among different models in the training set, and the time-dependent ROC was used to compare the predictive performance of different models. Calibration curves were used to evaluate model accuracy, and decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to evaluate overall net benefit. Results:(1) Follow-up of patients and analysis of influencing factors for prognosis. All 406 patients were followed up postoperatively for 28(range, 6-36)months, with 1- and 3-year overall survival rate of 86.5% and 40.9%, respectively. The 285 patients in the training set were followed up postoperatively for 30(range, 6-36)months, with 1- and 3-year overall survival rate of 85.1% and 35.5%, respectively. The 121 patients in the validation set were followed up postoperatively for 25(range, 6-36)months, with 1- and 3-year overall survival rate of 87.0% and 43.2%, respectively. There was no significant difference in postoperative overall survival rate between the training set and the validation set ( χ2=3.20, P>0.05). Results of multivariate analysis showed that left thoracic surgical approach, preopera-tive neutrophil count, vascular invasion, perineural invasion, pathological T2-4 stage, pathological N2-3 stage, and postoperative pneumonia were independent risk factors affecting postoperative survival of 285 patients in the training set ( hazard ratio=1.466, 1.037, 1.482, 1.549, 5.268, 7.727, 22.202, 2.539, 2.686, 1.425, 95% confidence interval as 1.026-2.096, 1.003-1.073, 1.008-2.179, 1.105-2.170, 1.201-23.099, 1.833-32.576, 4.734-104.128, 1.577-4.087, 1.631-4.422, 1.018-1.994, P<0.05). (2) Construction and validation of machine learning prediction models. Independent risk factors affecting postoperative survival were included to construct RSF, GBM, LASSO-Cox, CoxBoost, survivalsvm, XGBoost, SuperPC, and plsRcox machine learning prediction models. Results of Delong test showed that there were significant differences in the AUC of RSF and GBM from the other six models ( P<0.05). Results of time-dependent ROC curve showed that all 8 machine learning predic-tion models had good discriminative ability in the training cohort, among which the RSF machine learning prediction model had the best predictive performance. Results of calibration curve showed that the RSF machine learning prediction model fitted well for predicting postoperative 1-, 2-, and 3-year overall survival in the training cohort, with high consistency with actual results. Results of decision curve analysis showed that within a threshold range of 0-0.80, the RSF machine learning prediction model provided a better overall net benefit. Further analysis showed that in the validation set, the AUC of RSF machine learning prediction model for postoperative 1-, 2-, and 3-year survival prediction were 0.786 (95% confidence interval as 0.609-0.962), 0.774 (95% confidence interval as 0.676-0.873), and 0.750 (95% confidence interval as 0.652-0.848), respectively. Results of calibration curve showed that the RSF machine learning prediction model fitted well for predicting postopera-tive 1-, 2-, and 3-year overall survival in the validation set, with high consistency with actual results. In the training set, the optimal cutoff value of the RSF machine learning prediction model risk score was 11.7. Patients with risk score ≥11.7 were classified as the high-risk group, and those with risk score <11.7 as the low-risk group. The median survival times of the two groups were 18.0 months and >36.0 months, respectively, showing a significant difference between them ( χ2=73.30, P<0.05). In the validation set, the optimal cutoff value of the RSF machine learning prediction model risk score was 11.7. Patients with risk score ≥11.7 were classified as the high-risk group, and those with risk score<11.7 as the low-risk group. The median survival times of the two groups were 17.0 months and>36.0 months for the high-risk and low-risk groups, respectively, showing a significant difference between them ( χ2=35.20, P<0.05). Conclusions:Left thoracic surgical approach, preoperative neutrophil count, vascular invasion, perineural invasion, pathological T2-4 stage, pathological N2-3 stage, and postoperative pneumonia are independent risk factors affecting survival of esophageal cancer patients after radical resection. The RSF machine learning prediction model constructed based on these factors can effectively distinguish the survival prognosis of high-risk and low-risk patients.

Objective:To explore differences in the efficacy and safety of ruxolitinib in patients with myelofibrosis by age and to identify prognostic factors by analyzing clinical features and characteristics of chromosomes and gene mutations.Methods:This study retrospectively analyzed 188 patients with myelofibrosis who received ruxolitinib in the Department of Hematology, Qilu Hospital, Shandong University from January 1, 2017, to July 1, 2024. According to age at diagnosis, the patients were divided into the middle-aged group (≤55 years), young elderly group (56-65 years), and elderly group (>65 years). Clinical features, the characteristics of chromosomes and gene mutations, and the efficacy and safety of ruxolitinib treatment were compared across the three age groups. Independent factors influencing overall survival were identified through Cox proportional risk regression analysis.Results:Before treatment, the elderly group had more underlying comorbidities, a heavier symptom burden, higher leukocyte count, higher proportion and frequency of JAK2 mutations, and lower proportion of CALR mutations. The incidence of nondriver gene mutations was significantly higher in the young elderly group. After ruxolitinib treatment, the degree of reduction in spleen size did not differ significantly among the three groups. The length of the palpable spleen below the left costal margin reduced by more than 50% from baseline in 50.9% (27/53) of the patients in the middle-aged group, 43.5% (27/62) in the young elderly group, and 45.5% (20/44) in the elderly group ( P=0.720). No significant difference was observed among the three groups in the degree of reduction in Myeloproliferative Neoplasm Symptom Assessment Form (10-item version) score ( P=0.153), with a reduction in total symptom score by more than 50% achieved by 54.0% (27/50), 60.3% (41/68), and 66.7% (34/51) of the patients from the three groups, respectively ( P=0.429). The most common hematological adverse events were anemia and thrombocytopenia, while the most common nonhematological adverse events were electrolyte disturbance, elevated transaminase activity, and pulmonary infection. Multivariate analysis indicated that in ruxolitinib-treated patients with myelofibrosis, poor overall survival was independently predicted by increased age, reduced hemoglobin, percentage of bone marrow blasts ≥ 1%, absence of JAK2 mutations, chromosomal abnormalities, ≥2 high-molecular-risk mutations, and TP53 mutations. Conclusions:Patients with myelofibrosis stratified by age exhibited heterogeneous clinical features and gene mutation profiles but similar efficacy of ruxolitinib treatment and occurrence of adverse events.

Objective: To explore the correlation between Diabetes Complication Severity Index(DCSI), C-reactive protein/albumin ratio(CAR) and death in patients with diabetic foot ulcer(DFU) and to clarify their predictive value for all-cause death in DFU patients. Methods: Retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of 354 DFU patients who were treated in the Endocrinology Department of the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University from July 2019 to December 2022. Based on survival status during follow-up, patients were divided into a survival group(n=268) and a death group(n=86). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to identify risk factors for all-cause death in DFU patients. Receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curves were plotted to evaluate the predictive value of DCSI, CAR, and their combination for all-cause death in DFU patients. Kaplan-Meier curves were used to explore the impact of different DCSI and CAR levels on survival in DFU patients. Results: Univariate Cox regression analysis showed that older age, history of hypertension, higher Wagner classification levels, and elevated levels of CRP, Scr, FDP, DCSI score, and CAR were associated with a higher risk of death in DFU patients(P<0.05). Higher levels of HGB, HCT, ALB, or eGFR were associated with a lower risk of death. Patients receiving combined insulin and oral hypoglycemic medication had a lower risk of death compared to those receiving only insulin therapy(P<0.05). Multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated that older age, higher levels of Scr, DCSI, and CAR were independent risk factors for all-cause death in DFU patients, while higher levels of ALB and combined insulin and oral hypoglycemic therapy were protective factors. ROC curve analysis showed that the AUC values for DCSI, CAR, and their combination were 0.652, 0.633, and 0.686, respectively. Kaplan-Meier curve analysis revealed that patients with high DCSI scores(≥4.5) had a lower survival rate compared to those with lower DCSI scores(<4.5). Similarly, patients with high CAR levels(≥0.124) had a lower survival rate compared to those with lower CAR levels(<0.124). Conclusion High levels of DCSI and CAR are independent risk factors for all-cause death in DFU patients. DCSI, CAR, and their combination have predictive value for all-cause mortality in DFU patients.

Objective:We aimed to develop a novel visualized model based on nomogram to predict postoperative overall survival.Methods:This was a multicenter, retrospective, observational cohort study, including participants with histologically confirmed gastric and colorectal cancer who underwent radical surgery from 11 medical centers in China from August 1, 2015 to June 30, 2018. Baseline characteristics, histopathological data and nutritional status, as assessed using Nutrition Risk Screening 2002 (NRS 2002) score and the scored Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment, were collected. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression and Cox regression were used to identify variables to be included in the predictive model. Internal and external validations were performed.Results:There were 681 and 127 patients in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. A total of 188 deaths were observed over a median follow-up period of 59 (range: 58 to 60) months. Two independent predictors of NRS 2002 and Tumor-Node-Metastasis (TNM) stage were identified and incorporated into the prediction nomogram model together with the factor of age. The model's concordance index for 1-, 3- and 5-year overall survival was 0.696, 0.724, and 0.738 in the training cohort and 0.801, 0.812, and 0.793 in the validation cohort, respectively.Conclusions:In this study, a new nomogram prediction model based on NRS 2002 score was developed and validated for predicting the overall postoperative survival of patients with gastric colorectal cancer. This model has good differentiation, calibration and clinical practicability in predicting the long-term survival rate of patients with gastrointestinal cancer after radical surgery.

Dilated cardiomyopathy(DCM)has a concealed onset with left or even whole heart enlargement as the main imaging manifestation.It is a common primary disease of heart failure and arrhythmia.With the continuous deepening of research in recent years,the intrinsic molecular mechanism of regulatory cell death(RCD)has gradually become clear.Researchers have found that the RCD mode plays a very important role in the occurrence and development of DCM.At present,the RCD modes involved in DCM mainly include apoptosis,necrotic apoptosis,pyroptosis,iron death,autophagy,and cuproptosis,and a certain correlation exists among them,which interact and regulate each other.This article provides an overview of the current research status on the mechanisms of the six RCD modes involved in DCM to provide a reference for future basic research and clinical applications.

The Gastroesophageal reflux disease(GERD)is related to the dynamic disorder of the digestive tract caused by the imbalance of the viscera and meridians.The spleen and stomach are the hub of the qi machinery,transforming the essence of water and valley into energy and regulating the Yin and Yang of all bodies.The sympathetic balance between Ren-Du and Qi is the motivity of the spleen and stomach.Interstitial cells of Cajal(ICC)are the hub of digestive motility,which can maintain mitochondrial energy metabolism through mitochondrial autophagy and improve the digestive motility.Therefore,in this paper,the molecular biological basis of GERD was discussed based on the"regulating pivot with pivot"theory that the pivots of viscera and meridians drive ICC mitochondrial energy balance.It also explains the feasibility of Qi-Shi-Sheng-Jiang-Gui-Yuan Decoction in treating GERD based on"regulating pivot with pivot",which is helpful to realize the microscopization and concretization of"regulating pivot with pivot"theory and realize the modernization of TCM theory.