1.Predict the effect of the number of positive preoperative serum tumor markers on the surgical method and prognosis of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma patients based on mediation analysis
Zonglong LI ; Jialu CHEN ; Yue TANG ; Delong QIN ; Chen CHEN ; Yinghe QIU ; Hong WU ; Yu HE ; Xianhai MAO ; Wenlong ZHAI ; Jingdong LI ; Xiao LIANG ; Chuandong SUN ; Kai MA ; Zhimin GENG ; Zhaohui TANG ; Zhiwei QUAN
Chinese Journal of Surgery 2024;62(7):685-696
Objective:To investigate the effect of the number of positive preoperative serological tumor markers on the surgical approach and prognosis of patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma.Methods:This is a retrospective case-series study. Data from 548 patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma after radical resection from October 2010 to April 2019 were retrospectively collected in 10 hospitals of China. There were 277 males and 271 females with an age of (57.8±10.2)years(range:23 to 84 years). Four hundred and twenty-six patients(77.7%) had at least one positive preoperative serum tumor marker. The data collection included the results of 4 preoperative serological tumor markers,other preoperative indicators(5 prodromal symptoms, 6 medical history,8 preoperative serological indicators,5 preoperative imaging indicators,and 14 preoperative pathological examination indicators),baseline data (gender and age),surgical methods,and prognostic follow-up data. Four preoperative results of serologic tumor marker and surgical procedure were converted into categorical variables. The number of positive preoperative serum tumor markers was used as the treatment variable,the surgical method was used as the mediating variable,and the survival time was used as the outcome variable. Univariate and multivariate analysis were used to screen for other preoperative indicators which were independent factors that influenced the surgical procedure and the prognosis of patients as covariates to analyze the mediating effect.Results:Of the 548 patients included in the study, 176 patients (32.1%) underwent partial hepatectomy,151 patients(27.5%) underwent hemihepatectomy, and 221 patients(40.3%) underwent partial hepatectomy or hemihepatectomy combined with other treatments. The results of the univariate and multivariate analysis showed that the number of positive serum tumor markers,intrahepatic bile duct dilatation,portal vein invasion,pathological differentiation,pathological type,vascular invasion,T stage,N stage and maximum tumor diameter were independent factors influencing the surgical procedure(all P<0.05). Intrahepatic bile duct dilatation,pathological differentiation and T stage were independent prognostic factors for patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma(all P<0.05). Intrahepatic bile duct dilatation,differentiation and T stage were included as covariates in the mediation effect model. The results showed that the number of positive serum tumor markers before surgery had a negative predictive effect on the survival time of patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma ( β=-0.092, P=0.039),and had a positive predictive effect on the surgical method ( β=0.244, P<0.01). The number of positive serum tumor markers had a negative predictive effect on the survival time of patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma ( β=-0.151, P=0.002). Direct and indirect effects accounted for 71.3% and 28.7% of total effects,respectively. Conclusions:The higher the positive number of preoperative tumor markers,the worse the prognosis of patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma. The number of positive cells not only directly affects the prognosis of patients,but also indirectly affects the prognosis of patients by affecting the surgical method.
2.Predict the effect of the number of positive preoperative serum tumor markers on the surgical method and prognosis of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma patients based on mediation analysis
Zonglong LI ; Jialu CHEN ; Yue TANG ; Delong QIN ; Chen CHEN ; Yinghe QIU ; Hong WU ; Yu HE ; Xianhai MAO ; Wenlong ZHAI ; Jingdong LI ; Xiao LIANG ; Chuandong SUN ; Kai MA ; Zhimin GENG ; Zhaohui TANG ; Zhiwei QUAN
Chinese Journal of Surgery 2024;62(7):685-696
Objective:To investigate the effect of the number of positive preoperative serological tumor markers on the surgical approach and prognosis of patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma.Methods:This is a retrospective case-series study. Data from 548 patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma after radical resection from October 2010 to April 2019 were retrospectively collected in 10 hospitals of China. There were 277 males and 271 females with an age of (57.8±10.2)years(range:23 to 84 years). Four hundred and twenty-six patients(77.7%) had at least one positive preoperative serum tumor marker. The data collection included the results of 4 preoperative serological tumor markers,other preoperative indicators(5 prodromal symptoms, 6 medical history,8 preoperative serological indicators,5 preoperative imaging indicators,and 14 preoperative pathological examination indicators),baseline data (gender and age),surgical methods,and prognostic follow-up data. Four preoperative results of serologic tumor marker and surgical procedure were converted into categorical variables. The number of positive preoperative serum tumor markers was used as the treatment variable,the surgical method was used as the mediating variable,and the survival time was used as the outcome variable. Univariate and multivariate analysis were used to screen for other preoperative indicators which were independent factors that influenced the surgical procedure and the prognosis of patients as covariates to analyze the mediating effect.Results:Of the 548 patients included in the study, 176 patients (32.1%) underwent partial hepatectomy,151 patients(27.5%) underwent hemihepatectomy, and 221 patients(40.3%) underwent partial hepatectomy or hemihepatectomy combined with other treatments. The results of the univariate and multivariate analysis showed that the number of positive serum tumor markers,intrahepatic bile duct dilatation,portal vein invasion,pathological differentiation,pathological type,vascular invasion,T stage,N stage and maximum tumor diameter were independent factors influencing the surgical procedure(all P<0.05). Intrahepatic bile duct dilatation,pathological differentiation and T stage were independent prognostic factors for patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma(all P<0.05). Intrahepatic bile duct dilatation,differentiation and T stage were included as covariates in the mediation effect model. The results showed that the number of positive serum tumor markers before surgery had a negative predictive effect on the survival time of patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma ( β=-0.092, P=0.039),and had a positive predictive effect on the surgical method ( β=0.244, P<0.01). The number of positive serum tumor markers had a negative predictive effect on the survival time of patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma ( β=-0.151, P=0.002). Direct and indirect effects accounted for 71.3% and 28.7% of total effects,respectively. Conclusions:The higher the positive number of preoperative tumor markers,the worse the prognosis of patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma. The number of positive cells not only directly affects the prognosis of patients,but also indirectly affects the prognosis of patients by affecting the surgical method.
3.Influencing factors and effectiveness of community follow-up in patients with cardiac implantable electronic device
Jiahui HUANG ; Hong SHEN ; Yunling ZHAO ; Xiaojing YE ; Hong FANG ; Yue LI ; Wei ZHAO ; Juan SHEN ; Hongli FAN ; Zhaohui QIU
Chinese Journal of General Practitioners 2023;22(2):187-193
Objective:To explore the influencing factors and effectiveness of community follow-up in patients with cardiac implantable electronic device (CIED) implantation.Method:A total of 132 patients who received CIED implantation in the Department of Cardiology of Tongren Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine from February 2021 to February 2022 were enrolled in this prospective cohort study. Among them 33 patients were followed up in community health service centers associated with Tongren Hospital (community follow-up group) and 99 matched patients were followed up in the CIED outpatient clinic of the hospital (outpatient follow-up group) with a ratio of 1∶3. The clinical data of the selected patients were collected through a questionnaire survey; the follow-up data were extracted through the CarelinkExpress electronic follow-up platform and the CIED outpatient information system of Tongren Hospital. Adjustment of the treatment protocol or CIED parameters at follow-up, and the referral from the community health service centers were defined as visit with-an-action (VWA). The endpoint of follow-up was the occurrence of major adverse events. The multivariate logistic regression model was used to analyze the factors influencing patient selection for community follow-up.Results:The univariate analysis showed that the frequency of visits to community health service centers and the service contracting rate in community follow-up group were higher than those of outpatient follow-up group ( P<0.05). The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the contracted community physician service was an independent influencing factor of patient choosing community follow-up ( OR=2.143, 95% CI: 1.103-4.166, P=0.025). A total of 469 visits of followed up occurred in 132 patients, including 45 community visits and 424 outpatient visits. VWA accounted for 22.2% (10/45) in the community follow-up group, and 17.2% (73/424) in the outpatient follow-up group ( P>0.05). There was no significant difference in the safety and effectiveness indicators (VWA, major adverse events, and unplanned follow-up) between the two groups ( P>0.05). More patients in the community follow-up group walked to the hospital than the outpatient follow-up group ( P<0.05);and the main transportation for the later was by bus or taxi(42(42.4%)or 41(41.4%)). The average waiting time in the community follow-up group was significantly shorter than that in outpatient follow-up group ( P<0.05). The total time required for a single follow-up in the community follow-up group was 50.0 (45.0, 59.5) minutes, which was significantly shorter than that in the routine outpatient follow-up group (107.0 (90.0, 135.0) minutes, P<0.05). Conclusions:The contracting with community physicians is an independent influencing factor for CIED implanted patients to choose community follow-up. The safety and effectiveness of community follow-up are comparable to routine outpatient follow-up, and community follow-up is more convenient.
4.Efficacy analysis of surgical combined with postoperative adjuvant therapy for T3 gallbladder carcinoma: a multicenter retrospective study
Facai YANG ; Jing HU ; Tianhang SU ; Zhimin GENG ; Kai ZHANG ; Jun DING ; Zhengqing LEI ; Bin YI ; Jingdong LI ; Zhaohui TANG ; Zhangjun CHENG ; Yinghe QIU
Chinese Journal of Surgery 2023;61(10):863-870
Objective:To explore the clinical value of adjuvant therapy in patients with T3 gallbladder cancer (GBC) who have undergone R0 resection.Methods:Clinical and pathological data from 415 patients with T3 GBC who underwent surgical treatment in 7 tertiary centers in China from January 2013 to December 2018 were collected,including 251 males and 164 females,aged (61±11)years (range: 26 to 88 years). Depending on whether to receive adjuvant therapy after radical resection,the patients were divided into the radical resection group alone (group A, n=358) and the radical resection combined with the postoperative adjuvant therapy group (group B, n=57). The general data of the two groups were matched 1∶1 by propensity score matching method,and the caliper value was 0.02.Clinicopathological characteristics,overall survival and disease-free survival of the two groups were compared.The Cox regression model was used for multivariate analysis,and patients with at least one or more independent risk factors were classified as high-risk clinicopathological subtypes. Subgroup analysis was performed to assess the clinical value of adjuvant therapy after radical resection in patients with high-risk clinicopathological subtypes. Results:After the matching,there were 42 patients in each of the two groups. The incidence of gallbladder cancer and the number of dissected lymph nodes in group B after cholecystectomy were higher than those in group A ( χ 2=9.224,2.570,both P<0.05). There were no significant differences in overall survival rate and disease-free survival rate between the two groups before and after matching (all P>0.05). The results of the univariate and multivariate analysis showed that CA19-9>39 U/ml,nerve invasion,tumor location (liver side or bilateral),TNM stage ⅢB to ⅣB ,poorly differentiated tumor were independent prognostic factors of overall survival and disease-free survival of patients with T3 stage gallbladder cancer (all P<0.05).Three hundred and twenty-nine patients(79.3%) had high-risk clinicopathological subtypes,and the median survival time after curative resection with and without adjuvant therapy was 17 months and 34 months respectively,and the 3-year and 5-year overall survival rates were respectively 40.0%,21.3% and 46.0%,46.0% ( χ 2=4.042, P=0.044);the median disease-free survival time was 9 months and 13 months,and the 3-year and 5-year disease-free survival rates were 23.4%,13.6% and 30.2%,18.2% ( χ 2=0.992, P=0.319). Conclusions:Postoperative adjuvant therapy following radical surgery did not yield significant improvements in the overall survival and disease-free survival rates of patients diagnosed with T3 gallbladder cancer. However, it demonstrated a significant extension in the overall survival rate for patients presenting high-risk clinicopathological subtypes.
5.Efficacy analysis of surgical combined with postoperative adjuvant therapy for T3 gallbladder carcinoma: a multicenter retrospective study
Facai YANG ; Jing HU ; Tianhang SU ; Zhimin GENG ; Kai ZHANG ; Jun DING ; Zhengqing LEI ; Bin YI ; Jingdong LI ; Zhaohui TANG ; Zhangjun CHENG ; Yinghe QIU
Chinese Journal of Surgery 2023;61(10):863-870
Objective:To explore the clinical value of adjuvant therapy in patients with T3 gallbladder cancer (GBC) who have undergone R0 resection.Methods:Clinical and pathological data from 415 patients with T3 GBC who underwent surgical treatment in 7 tertiary centers in China from January 2013 to December 2018 were collected,including 251 males and 164 females,aged (61±11)years (range: 26 to 88 years). Depending on whether to receive adjuvant therapy after radical resection,the patients were divided into the radical resection group alone (group A, n=358) and the radical resection combined with the postoperative adjuvant therapy group (group B, n=57). The general data of the two groups were matched 1∶1 by propensity score matching method,and the caliper value was 0.02.Clinicopathological characteristics,overall survival and disease-free survival of the two groups were compared.The Cox regression model was used for multivariate analysis,and patients with at least one or more independent risk factors were classified as high-risk clinicopathological subtypes. Subgroup analysis was performed to assess the clinical value of adjuvant therapy after radical resection in patients with high-risk clinicopathological subtypes. Results:After the matching,there were 42 patients in each of the two groups. The incidence of gallbladder cancer and the number of dissected lymph nodes in group B after cholecystectomy were higher than those in group A ( χ 2=9.224,2.570,both P<0.05). There were no significant differences in overall survival rate and disease-free survival rate between the two groups before and after matching (all P>0.05). The results of the univariate and multivariate analysis showed that CA19-9>39 U/ml,nerve invasion,tumor location (liver side or bilateral),TNM stage ⅢB to ⅣB ,poorly differentiated tumor were independent prognostic factors of overall survival and disease-free survival of patients with T3 stage gallbladder cancer (all P<0.05).Three hundred and twenty-nine patients(79.3%) had high-risk clinicopathological subtypes,and the median survival time after curative resection with and without adjuvant therapy was 17 months and 34 months respectively,and the 3-year and 5-year overall survival rates were respectively 40.0%,21.3% and 46.0%,46.0% ( χ 2=4.042, P=0.044);the median disease-free survival time was 9 months and 13 months,and the 3-year and 5-year disease-free survival rates were 23.4%,13.6% and 30.2%,18.2% ( χ 2=0.992, P=0.319). Conclusions:Postoperative adjuvant therapy following radical surgery did not yield significant improvements in the overall survival and disease-free survival rates of patients diagnosed with T3 gallbladder cancer. However, it demonstrated a significant extension in the overall survival rate for patients presenting high-risk clinicopathological subtypes.
6.Mechanism study of neurofibromin 1 in gallbladder cancer
Lingxiao ZHANG ; Zhaohui JIN ; Xuya CUI ; Shimei QIU ; Ping DONG ; Ying HUANG ; Yingbin LIU
Chinese Journal of Digestive Surgery 2022;21(7):941-948
Objective:To investigate the mechanism of neurofibromin 1 (NF1) in gallbla-dder cancer.Methods:The experimental study was conducted. Human gallbladder cancer cell lines, including GBC-SD, NOZ, SGC996, EH-GB1, ZJU0428, human embryonic kidneys cell line 293T and human cervical cancer cell line HELA, were cultured. The recombinant plasmids (mRFP-YAP1 FL-FLAG and eGFP-MYC-NF1 2650?2750-HA) were constructed for co-immunoprecipitation experiment. The truncated Yes associated protein 1(YAP1) and NF1 recombinant proteins were purified in vitro. The interaction between NF1 and YAP1 in vitro or in vivo were verified by isothermal titration calori-metry (ITC) assay, GST pull-down experiment, co-immunoprecipitation, immunofluorescence, laser confocal microscopy, and the expression of NF1 protein in different gallbladder cancer cell lines was verified by Western blot experiments. Observation indicators: (1) interaction between NF1 and YAP1 in vitro; (2) interaction between NF1 and YAP1 in cells; (3) expression of NF1 protein in different human gallbladder cancer cell lines. The dissociation constants were exported from ITC 200 software and represented as Mean± SD. Count data were represented as absolute numbers. Results:(1) Interaction between NF1 and YAP1 in vitro. ① Results of ITC assay showed that there was interac-tion between PPQY and YAP1-WW1, between PPQY and YAP1 (Amino acid residues 162?275), and the dissociation constants between PPQY and YAP1-WW1, between PPQY and YAP1(Amino acid residues 162?275) were (0.42±0.06)mmol/L, (0.69±0.14)mmol/L, respectively. ② GST pull-down results indicated that the target protein His-Sumo-YAP1 WW1 was obviouly observed in protein lane of reaction system between GST-PPQY recombinant protein and His-Sumo-YAP1 WW1, relative to the reaction system between GST protein and His-Sumo-YAP1 WW1. The target protein His-Sumo-YAP1 WW2 was obviouly observed in protein lane of reaction system between GST-PPQY recombinant protein and His-Sumo-YAP1 WW2, relative to the reaction system between GST protein and His-Sumo-YAP1 WW2. (2) Interaction between NF1 and YAP1 in cells. ① Co-immunoprecipitation results indica-ted that NF1 protein was observed in cell lysis solution which was incubated by FLAG gel beads and cotransfected with mRFP-YAP1 FL-FLAG and eGFP-MYC-NF1 2650?2750-HA. ② Immuno-fluorescence and laser confocal microscopy results indicated that YAP1 and NF1 with obvious fluorescence were co-localized in the cytoplasm of human gallbladder cancer NOZ cells. However, YAP1 with obvious fluorescence was localized in the nucleus of human gallbladder SGC996 cells and NF1 showed weak fluorescence. (3) Expression of NF1 protein in different human gallbladder cancer cell lines. Western blot results showed that with the expression level of NF1 protein in HELA cell line as the standard, the relative expression levels of NF1 protein in EH-GB1, GBC-SD, NOZ, SGC996, ZJU0428 cell lines were 1.28, 0, 1.01, 0, 0, respectively. Conclusion:NF1 affects the gallbladder cancer by directly acting on YAP1 protein.
7.Study on the expression of microRNA-1825 in serum of pre-operative and post-operative patients with breast cancer
Yongyin HE ; Bin XIAO ; Jiahao QIU ; Ting LEI ; Linhai LI ; Zhaohui SUN
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine 2021;55(5):691-697
By measuring the relative expression level of miR-1825 in serum of pre-operative and post-operative patients with breast cancer and healthy subjects, the clincal value of miR-1825 for pre-operative and post-operative breast cancer patients was evaluated.The serum of pre-operative breast cancer patients( n=92), post-operative breast cancer patients( n=64) and healthy subjects( n=60) were collected from General Hospital of Southern Theatre Command of PLA from October 2018 to March 2021. Real-time quantitative PCR was used to detect the relative expression of miR-1825 in the serum of breast cancer patients and healthy controls. The clinicopathological data were used to analyze the correlation between the expression level of miR-1825 and serum tumor markers level. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was used to evaluate the diagnosis value of breast cancer with miR-1825, CA15-3. Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparisons between two groups,and Kruskal-Wallis H test was used for multiple group comparisons. The correlation between miR-1825 and CEA, CA15-3, CA-125 expression were analyzed using Spearman correlation test.The relative expression level of miR-1825 in serum of pre-operative patients with breast cancer 1.290(0.705, 1.793) was significantly higher than that of healthy controls 0.18(-0.876, 0.725), but decreased after surgery and chemotherapy -0.080(-0474, 0.405). The analysis of clinicopathological characteristics found that the expression level of miR-1825 was higher in patients with stage Ⅲ-Ⅳ, low degree of tissue differentiation, and tumor larger than 2 cm[stageⅠ-Ⅱ:0.975(0.458, 1.380), stageⅢ-Ⅳ: 1.955(1.663, 2.535), U=98.000, P<0.001;low degree of tissue differentiation:1.685(1.448, 2.143), high/medium degree of tissue differentiation:0.700(0.395, 0.898), U=15.500, P<0.001; tumor smaller than 2 cm:0.935(0.438, 1.370), tumor larger than 2 cm:1.915(1.580, 2.288), U=215.500, P<0.001].Spearman analysis result showed that the expression of serum miR-1825 in breast cancer patients was linearly correlated with the expression of CEA ( r=0.274, P=0.008) and CA15-3 ( r=0.587, P<0.001); ROC curve result showed that miR-1825 was able to distinguish preoperative breast cancer patients from healthy people and postoperative patients. When using one biomarker to discriminate pre-operation and post-operation patients,miR-1825 had the best diagnostic efficiency,with an area under the ROC curve(AUC) of 0.914(95 %CI: 0.872-0.956). miR-1825 may become a potential serum marker for the diagnosis of breast cancer and monitoring of therapeutic efficacy.
8.Study on the expression of microRNA-1825 in serum of pre-operative and post-operative patients with breast cancer
Yongyin HE ; Bin XIAO ; Jiahao QIU ; Ting LEI ; Linhai LI ; Zhaohui SUN
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine 2021;55(5):691-697
By measuring the relative expression level of miR-1825 in serum of pre-operative and post-operative patients with breast cancer and healthy subjects, the clincal value of miR-1825 for pre-operative and post-operative breast cancer patients was evaluated.The serum of pre-operative breast cancer patients( n=92), post-operative breast cancer patients( n=64) and healthy subjects( n=60) were collected from General Hospital of Southern Theatre Command of PLA from October 2018 to March 2021. Real-time quantitative PCR was used to detect the relative expression of miR-1825 in the serum of breast cancer patients and healthy controls. The clinicopathological data were used to analyze the correlation between the expression level of miR-1825 and serum tumor markers level. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was used to evaluate the diagnosis value of breast cancer with miR-1825, CA15-3. Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparisons between two groups,and Kruskal-Wallis H test was used for multiple group comparisons. The correlation between miR-1825 and CEA, CA15-3, CA-125 expression were analyzed using Spearman correlation test.The relative expression level of miR-1825 in serum of pre-operative patients with breast cancer 1.290(0.705, 1.793) was significantly higher than that of healthy controls 0.18(-0.876, 0.725), but decreased after surgery and chemotherapy -0.080(-0474, 0.405). The analysis of clinicopathological characteristics found that the expression level of miR-1825 was higher in patients with stage Ⅲ-Ⅳ, low degree of tissue differentiation, and tumor larger than 2 cm[stageⅠ-Ⅱ:0.975(0.458, 1.380), stageⅢ-Ⅳ: 1.955(1.663, 2.535), U=98.000, P<0.001;low degree of tissue differentiation:1.685(1.448, 2.143), high/medium degree of tissue differentiation:0.700(0.395, 0.898), U=15.500, P<0.001; tumor smaller than 2 cm:0.935(0.438, 1.370), tumor larger than 2 cm:1.915(1.580, 2.288), U=215.500, P<0.001].Spearman analysis result showed that the expression of serum miR-1825 in breast cancer patients was linearly correlated with the expression of CEA ( r=0.274, P=0.008) and CA15-3 ( r=0.587, P<0.001); ROC curve result showed that miR-1825 was able to distinguish preoperative breast cancer patients from healthy people and postoperative patients. When using one biomarker to discriminate pre-operation and post-operation patients,miR-1825 had the best diagnostic efficiency,with an area under the ROC curve(AUC) of 0.914(95 %CI: 0.872-0.956). miR-1825 may become a potential serum marker for the diagnosis of breast cancer and monitoring of therapeutic efficacy.
9.A prognostic model of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma after curative intent resection based on Bayesian network
Chen CHEN ; Yuhan WU ; Jingwei ZHANG ; Yinghe QIU ; Hong WU ; Qi LI ; Tianqiang SONG ; Yu HE ; Xianhan MAO ; Wenlong ZHAI ; Zhangjun CHENG ; Jingdong LI ; Shubin SI ; Zhiqiang CAI ; Zhimin GENG ; Zhaohui TANG
Chinese Journal of Surgery 2021;59(4):265-271
Objective:To examine a survival prognostic model applicable for patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) based on Bayesian network.Methods:The clinical and pathological data of ICC patients who underwent curative intent resection in ten Chinese hepatobiliary surgery centers from January 2010 to December 2018 were collected.A total of 516 patients were included in the study. There were 266 males and 250 females.The median age( M( Q R)) was 58(14) years.One hundred and sixteen cases (22.5%) with intrahepatic bile duct stones,and 143 cases (27.7%) with chronic viral hepatitis.The Kaplan-Meier method was used for survival analysis.The univariate and multivariate analysis were implemented respectively using the Log-rank test and Cox proportional hazard model.One-year survival prediction models based on tree augmented naive Bayesian (TAN) and na?ve Bayesian algorithm were established by Bayesialab software according to different variables,a nomogram model was also developed based on the independent predictors.The receiver operating characteristic curve and the area under curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the prediction effect of the models. Results:The overall median survival time was 25.0 months,and the 1-,3-and 5-year cumulative survival rates was 76.6%,37.9%,and 21.0%,respectively.Univariate analysis showed that gender,preoperative jaundice,pathological differentiation,vascular invasion,microvascular invasion,liver capsule invasion,T staging,N staging,margin,intrahepatic bile duct stones,carcinoembryonic antigen,and CA19-9 affected the prognosis(χ 2=5.858-54.974, all P<0.05).The Cox multivariate model showed that gender,pathological differentiation,liver capsule invasion, T stage,N stage,intrahepatic bile duct stones,and CA19-9 were the independent predictive factors(all P<0.05). The AUC of the TAN model based on all 19 clinicopathological factors was 74.5%,and the AUC of the TAN model based on the 12 prognostic factors derived from univariate analysis was 74.0%,the AUC of the na?ve Bayesian model based on 7 independent prognostic risk factors was 79.5%,the AUC and C-index of the nomogram survival prediction model based on 7 independent prognostic risk factors were 78.8% and 0.73,respectively. Conclusion:The Bayesian network model may provide a relatively accurate prognostic prediction for ICC patients after curative intent resection and performed superior to the nomogram model.
10.A prognostic model of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma after curative intent resection based on Bayesian network
Chen CHEN ; Yuhan WU ; Jingwei ZHANG ; Yinghe QIU ; Hong WU ; Qi LI ; Tianqiang SONG ; Yu HE ; Xianhan MAO ; Wenlong ZHAI ; Zhangjun CHENG ; Jingdong LI ; Shubin SI ; Zhiqiang CAI ; Zhimin GENG ; Zhaohui TANG
Chinese Journal of Surgery 2021;59(4):265-271
Objective:To examine a survival prognostic model applicable for patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) based on Bayesian network.Methods:The clinical and pathological data of ICC patients who underwent curative intent resection in ten Chinese hepatobiliary surgery centers from January 2010 to December 2018 were collected.A total of 516 patients were included in the study. There were 266 males and 250 females.The median age( M( Q R)) was 58(14) years.One hundred and sixteen cases (22.5%) with intrahepatic bile duct stones,and 143 cases (27.7%) with chronic viral hepatitis.The Kaplan-Meier method was used for survival analysis.The univariate and multivariate analysis were implemented respectively using the Log-rank test and Cox proportional hazard model.One-year survival prediction models based on tree augmented naive Bayesian (TAN) and na?ve Bayesian algorithm were established by Bayesialab software according to different variables,a nomogram model was also developed based on the independent predictors.The receiver operating characteristic curve and the area under curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the prediction effect of the models. Results:The overall median survival time was 25.0 months,and the 1-,3-and 5-year cumulative survival rates was 76.6%,37.9%,and 21.0%,respectively.Univariate analysis showed that gender,preoperative jaundice,pathological differentiation,vascular invasion,microvascular invasion,liver capsule invasion,T staging,N staging,margin,intrahepatic bile duct stones,carcinoembryonic antigen,and CA19-9 affected the prognosis(χ 2=5.858-54.974, all P<0.05).The Cox multivariate model showed that gender,pathological differentiation,liver capsule invasion, T stage,N stage,intrahepatic bile duct stones,and CA19-9 were the independent predictive factors(all P<0.05). The AUC of the TAN model based on all 19 clinicopathological factors was 74.5%,and the AUC of the TAN model based on the 12 prognostic factors derived from univariate analysis was 74.0%,the AUC of the na?ve Bayesian model based on 7 independent prognostic risk factors was 79.5%,the AUC and C-index of the nomogram survival prediction model based on 7 independent prognostic risk factors were 78.8% and 0.73,respectively. Conclusion:The Bayesian network model may provide a relatively accurate prognostic prediction for ICC patients after curative intent resection and performed superior to the nomogram model.

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