1.Application of time series and machine learning models in predicting the trend of sickness absenteeism among primary and secondary school students in Shanghai
WANG Zhengzhong, ZHANG Zhe, ZHOU Xinyi, YUAN Linlin, ZHAI Yani, SUN Lijing, LUO Chunyan
Chinese Journal of School Health 2025;46(3):426-430
Objective:
To analyze the temporal variation patterns of sickness absenteeism among primary and secondary school students in Shanghai, so as to explore models suitable for predicting peaks and intensity of absenteeism rates.
Methods:
The seasonal and trend decomposition using loess (STL) method was used to analyze the seasonal and long term trend changes in sickness absenteeism among primary and secondary school students from September 1 in 2010 to June 30 in 2018, in Shanghai. A hierarchical clustering method based on Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) was employed to classify absenteeism symptoms with similar temporal patterns. Based on historical data, the study constructed and evaluated different time series algorithms and machine learning models to optimize the accuracy of predicting the trend of sickness absenteeism.
Results:
During the research period, the average new absenteeism rate due to illness was 16.86 per 10 000 person day for every academic year, and the trend of sickness absenteeism exhibited both seasonality and a long term upward trend, reaching its highest point in the 2017 academic year (22.47 per 10 000 person day). The symptoms of absenteeism were divided into three categories: high incidence in winter and spring (respiratory symptoms, fever and general discomfort, etc.), high incidence in summer (eye symptoms, nosebleeds, etc.) and those without obvious seasonality (skin symptoms, accidental injuries, etc.).The constructed time series models effectively predicted the trend of absenteeism due to illness, although the accuracy of predicting peak intensity was relatively low. Among them, the multi layer perceptron (MLP) model performed the best, with an root mean squared error (RMSE) of 8.96 and an mean absolute error (MAE) of 4.37, reducing 36.51% and 39.02% compared to the baseline model.
Conclusion
Time series models and machine learning algorithms could effectively predict the trend of sickness absenteeism, and corresponding prevention and control measures can be taken for absenteeism caused by different symptoms during peak periods.
2.Research Strategies for the Traditional Chinese Medicine Pathomechanism Syndrome Differentiation System from the Perspective of Systems Thinking
Ziyi ZHOU ; Zhe FENG ; Xueping ZHOU
Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2025;66(8):765-768
Given the limitations of traditional scientific research methods in revealing the complex and dynamic evolution of disease pathomechanisms, this paper analyzes the current state and challenges of the traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) pathomechanism syndrome differentiation system within the framework of systems thinking. The challenges include insufficient experimental models, low data standardization, complex nonlinear characteristics, and difficulties in integrating expert experience. By leveraging qualitative-quantitative comprehensive integration methods, this paper proposes specific research strategies, including constructing qualitative models of pathomechanism evolution, employing mathematical models for validation and quantitative analysis to reveal pathomechanism patterns, and incorporating a "human-centered" approach to achieve human-machine collaboration. These strategies aim to provide insights for the modernization and development of a new TCM pathomechanism syndrome differentiation system.
3.Ten surgical pearls adapted from ancient Chinese allusions in managing severe proliferative diabetic retinopathy
Zhe CHEN ; Chan WU ; Yan ZHOU ; Shiqun LIN ; Xingyu XIAO ; Rongping DAI
International Eye Science 2025;25(5):698-705
AIM: To summarize 10 surgical pearls for managing proliferative diabetic retinopathy(PDR)adapted from the ancient Chinese allusions and analyze the application of these pearls in a real-world fashion.METHODS: Retrospective, noncomparative, interventional study. Ten surgical pearls were summarized and adapted from the ancient Chinese philosophy. Totally 346 cases(443 eyes)that underwent pars plana vitrectomy(PPV)at our hospial from January 2016 to February 2024 were selected. Flexible combinations of these pearls were applied according to the specific condition of each patient during surgeries. The efficacy and safety were analyzed, as well as the application frequencies according to the existence of tractional retinal detachment or not.RESULTS: A total of 473 times of surgeries were performed on all the patients. According to ancient Chinese allusions, ten surgical pearls were summarized from these surgeries. All PPVs went smoothly with the application of different combinations. Finally, almost all proliferative membranes were successfully peeled except for 10 patients(11 eyes), who went through strategy No.10(minimal membranectomy)that, only necessary relaxation incisions were made with most of the proliferative membranes left on purpose. The final visual acuities were mostly improved or stable(1.92±0.83 LogMAR preoperatively vs 1.16±0.85 LogMAR postoperatively, P<0.01). Postoperative complications mainly included early inflammatory responses in the anterior chamber and nuclear sclerosis. Recurrent vitreous hemorrhage, retinal detachment, and hyphema or neovascular glaucoma occurred in 1.9%(9/473), 3.2%(15/473), 0.4%(2/473)and 0.4%(2/473)times of PPVs, respectively. After 12/473(2.5%)times of PPVs, retinal detachment at the macular area still existed, and multiple times of subsequent PPVs were conducted. Final retinal attachment at the macular area was realized in 98.9% eyes. Those 5 unattached eyes were with heavily reproliferated membranes and subsequent tractional retinal detachment recurrence under the oil, and three of them were scleral buckled additionally.CONCLUSION:These 10 surgical strategies and technique pearls were mostly effective and safe in the management of severe PDR patients. They were relatively easy to be memorized and applicated once the meaning of each Chinese idiom was understood. One can use different combinations flexibly according to a patient's specific condition.
4.Epidemiological and etiological characteristics of hand-foot-mouth disease in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, 2010‒2023
Shuang FENG ; Xiaobin REN ; Zhe WANG ; Zhaokai HE ; Yanyang TAO ; Qingjun KAO ; Zhou SUN
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;37(2):129-134
ObjectiveTo analyze the epidemiological characteristics and trends of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) in Hangzhou, so as to provide an evidence for developing effective prevention and control measures and evaluating the control effects. MethodsThe incidence data of HFMD in Hangzhou were collected from the Infectious Disease Reporting Information Management System of China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. Descriptive epidemiology was applied to analyze the temporal, spatial and demographic distribution characteristics and etiology monitoring results of HFMD cases in Hangzhou from 2010 to 2023. Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trends of incidence rate of HFMD. Furthermore, circular distribution method was utilized to calculate the incidence peak of HFMD. ResultsFrom 2010 to 2023, the average annual reported incidence rate of HFMD in Hangzhou was 138.85/100 000, the proportion of severe cases was 0.04%, the mortality rate was 0.01/100 000, and the case fatality rate was 5.30/100 000. Both the total incidence rate and the incidence rate by sex showed an increasing trend. The annual reported incidence rate in males (158.72/100 000) was higher than that in females (117.61/100 000). The reported incidence rate showed a significant seasonal characteristic, with summer being the peak of epidemic. The results of surveillance samples suggested that the prevalence of HFMD in Hangzhou is characterized by the co-existence of multiple pathogens, with EV-A71 and CV-A16 being the dominant pathogens in the previous years and CV-A6 being the dominant pathogen since 2018. The proportion of EV-A71 in severe cases (77.19%) was higher than that in ordinary cases (15.37%), in addition, its proportion in ordinary cases, severe cases, and fatal cases all showed a decreasing trend. ConclusionThe incidence rate of HFMD in Hangzhou is still high, so it’s still necessary to continue to strengthen the prevention and control measures for key populations. In recent years, CV-A6 has been the main prevalent pathogen in Hangzhou. Further efforts in pathogen detection and analysis should be enhanced in the future.
5.Analysis of the monitoring results of radiation health technical service quality in Jiangxi Province, 2022-2024
Zhe HUANG ; Ning ZHOU ; Lingling GUO ; Zhongwen XU ; Lei DENG
Chinese Journal of Radiological Health 2025;34(3):390-394
Objective To access the current situation of the service capacity of radiation health technical service institutions in Jiangxi Province, analyze the existing problems of these institutions, and provide a scientific basis for standardizing the management of such institutions and improving their service capability. Methods A total of 11 radiation health technical service institutions in Jiangxi Province in the National Occupational Health Technical Service Organization Management Information System were selected as the monitoring objects. During the period from 2022 to 2024, 5-6 technical service institutions were selected each year and comprehensively evaluated and inspected using a checklist formulated by the state. Results Among the 16 quality monitoring results of 11 institutions, 2 (12.5%) were rated as excellent, 12 (75%) as qualified, and 2 (12.5%) as unqualified. The risk level assessment identified 7 (43.75%) high-risk institutions, 9 (56.25%) medium-risk institutions, and 0 (0%) low-risk institutions. Conclusion The overall service capacity of radiation health technical service institutions in Jiangxi Province needs to be improved. Notably, institutions within the health system, such as centers for disease control and prevention, show significant shortcomings in both on-site and laboratory testing capabilities.
6.Preliminary investigation on a method for determining the cumulative dose of low-energy neutrons independently
Lei DENG ; Faming CAO ; Zhe WANG ; Yu TU ; Ning ZHOU
Chinese Journal of Radiological Health 2025;34(4):578-583
Objective To study a method for determining the cumulative dose of low-energy neutrons ( < 100 keV) independently based on a CR-39 detector. Methods According to the theory of track etching kinetics, the differences in the tracks formed by low-energy neutrons or fast neutrons in a BN + CR-39 detector under broad-spectrum neutron irradiation were analyzed. A method was proposed to identify the tracks produced by low-energy neutrons under specific etching conditions while avoiding interference from fast neutron tracks. Results Experimental results demonstrated that the BN + CR-39 detector using TASTRAK PADC CR-39 track-detecting plastic could independently detect the tracks of low-energy neutrons when etched in a 6.25 mol/L NaOH solution for 1 h. The track density showed a good linear relationship with the ambient dose equivalent of low-energy neutrons, and the calibration coefficient was
7.Influencing factors for sarcopenia among elderly male patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus
LI Meilin ; ZHOU Mengjiao ; WU Jiayun ; YU Zhe ; KONG Liping
Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;37(6):588-592
Objective:
To explore the influencing factors for sarcopenia among elderly male patients with type 2 diabetes (T2DM), so as to provide the basis for the early prevention and treatment of sarcopenia.
Methods:
Male T2DM patients aged 60 and above admitted to Hangzhou First People's Hospital from January to December 2024 were selected as the study subjects. Demographic data, T2DM complications, and blood biochemical parameters were collected. Physical activity levels were assessed using the Chinese version of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire. The diagnosis of sarcopenia was made according to the diagnostic procedures and criteria established by the Asian Working Group for Sarcopenia in 2019. Factors affecting sarcopenia among elderly male patients with T2DM were analyzed using multivariable logistic regression model.
Results:
A total of 455 elderly male patients with T2DM were surveyed, with a mean age of (71.80±9.55) years. The predominant physical activity level was moderate with 226 cases accounting for 49.67%. The disease course of T2DM was mainly from 10-<20 years, with 229 cases accounting for 50.33%. There were 140 cases of T2DM complications, accounting for 30.77%. A total of 138 cases of sarcopenia were detected, with a prevalence of 30.33%. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that age (OR=1.077, 95%CI: 1.003~1.156), body mass index (<18.5kg/m2, OR=11.056, 95%CI: 3.343~36.547; 18.5~<25.0 kg/m2, OR=2.633, 95%CI: 1.420~4.881), physical activity level (low, OR=2.469, 95%CI: 1.421~4.292), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (yes, OR=1.871, 95%CI: 1.091~3.206), T2DM complications (yes, OR=3.015, 95%CI: 1.516~6.001), glycated hemoglobin (≥7%, OR=2.822, 95%CI: 1.423~5.590) and albumin (OR=0.810, 95%CI: 0.662~0.991) were factors affecting sarcopenia among elderly male patients with T2DM (P<0.05).
Conclusion
Advanced age, body mass index <25.0 kg/m2, low physical activity level, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, T2DM complications, high glycated hemoglobin and low albumin are associated with a higher risk of sarcopenia in elderly male patients with T2DM.
8.Investigation and analysis of radiation dose levels in pediatric patients in Jiangxi Province, China
Faming CAO ; Zhe HUANG ; Ning ZHOU ; Zhe WANG ; Li TAN ; Shiping CHEN ; Lei DENG
Chinese Journal of Radiological Health 2025;34(5):720-725
Objective To analyze the scanning parameters and radiation dose characteristics of pediatric CT examinations in Jiangxi Province, China, and to provide a basis for optimizing radiation protection in children. Methods The data of
9.Intracranial atherosclerotic stenosis and cognitive impairment
Yonghuan ZHANG ; Peng WANG ; Zongyuan LIU ; Zhe LU ; Yafei ZHOU ; Chaolai LIU ; Lei ZHANG ; Huakun LIU ; Jianfeng CHU
International Journal of Cerebrovascular Diseases 2024;32(7):521-526
Intracranial atherosclerotic stenosis (ICAS) is closely associated with cognitive impairment and dementia. This article reviews the manifestations, mechanisms, and interventions of cognitive impairment in patients with ICAS, aiming at increasing attention to ICAS, early identification and intervention, and delaying the occurrence and deterioration of cognitive impairment.
10.Research progress on the prognostic risk factors and prognostic models of perihilar cholangiocarcinoma
Yujun FANG ; Jian DUAN ; Zhe QING ; Huicong HUANG ; Wenqi WU ; Liming ZHOU ; Jinlan HE
International Journal of Surgery 2024;51(4):278-282
For Perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (pCCA), surgical resection is the only effective way to cure this disease. However, it has high postoperative mortality and high recurrence rate. Domestic and foreign scholars have constructed statistics-based evaluation methods to predict patients′ postoperative survival and complications, such as nomogram, scoring system and other prognostic models. Based on these methods, clinicians can better select patients who can benefit from surgery and choose the optimal? treatment for more severe patients. Through the adoption of other treatments or some ways to ameliorate some preoperative condition, to improve the patient′s mortality and survival. This article reviews the prognostic risk factors and prognostic models of pCCA in order to provide a reference for clinicians to predict the prognosis about the surgery.


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