1.ARIMA-based modeling to explore the impacts of COVID-19 prevention and control measures on the dengue fever epidemic in Yunnan Province
JIA Yuchen ; LI Ning ; ZHENG Erda
China Tropical Medicine 2024;24(10):1193-
Objective To analyze the epidemic characteristics of dengue fever in Yunnan Province and explore whether the prevention and control measures taken during the COVID-19 epidemic in Yunnan Province have impacted the epidemic situation of dengue fever, providing a scientific basis for formulating more targeted prevention and control strategies. Methods The epidemiological characteristics of dengue fever in Yunnan Province from 2013 to 2023 were analyzed. The data of dengue fever cases from 2013 to 2019 were selected to establish an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to predict the number of dengue fever cases from 2020 to 2022. The predicted values were compared with the actual observed values. Results A total of 28 131 cases of dengue fever were reported in Yunnan Province from 2013 to 2023, including 24 209 local cases and 3 922 overseas imported cases, with an average annual reported incidence of 5.35/100 000. There was only one peak incidence per year, mainly distributed from July to November. Dengue fever cases were reported in all states and cities in Yunnan Province, with the top four regions having the highest average annual incidence rates being Xishuangbanna (117.34/100 000), Dehong (56.93/100 000), Lincang (8.44/100 000), and Puer (3.12/100 000). The male-to-female ratio was 1.08∶1, with the age group predominantly from 20 to 50 years. The main occupations of the cases were farmers, commercial service, housework, and the unemployed. Using SPSS software, an ARIMA (0,0,1)(1,2,0)12 model was fitted to the dengue case data from 2013 to 2019, showing good fitting results. The model was used to predict the number of dengue fever cases in each month in Yunnan Province from 2020 to 2022, with only a few of the actual values falling within the 95% confidence interval of the predicted values. Conclusions The various prevention and control measures effectively reduced the number of reported cases of dengue fever. With the continuous optimization and adjustment of the prevention and control policy of COVID-19, new requirements for dengue fever prevention efforts should be put forward, implementing more precise control strategies.
2.Analysis of epidemic characteristics of hand-foot-mouth disease Virus using circular distribution method
Lihua CHEN ; Xia PENG ; Erda ZHENG ; Tian HUANG ; Yichen JIA ; Linhui HAO ; Xiulian SHEN ; Jibo HE
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2020;31(3):64-67
Objective To understand the epidemic characteristics of different virus types of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Zhaotong City, and provide guidance and recommendations for the prevention and control of HFMD, and to analyze seasonal characteristics of different virus types of HFMD in Zhaotong City. Methods The epidemiological characteristics of different virus types of HFMD in Zhaotong City from 2014 to 2017 were analyzed using the concentration and circular distribution methods. Results The main pathogens detected were EV71, Cox A16 and other enteroviruses, which were 216, 182, and 294, respectively, accounting for 57.45%, 73.44%, and 67.11%. M was 0.86, indicating that EV71 had strong seasonality. The Rayleigh test showed statistically significant differences (Z = 99.53, P <0.001). ā = 157 °, the peak day of onset was May 10, similar to untyped (May 16), the peak period was April 21-June 1, and the epidemic period was April 1-June 21. Conclusion According to the incubation period of hand-foot-mouth disease and the period of time during which the vaccine develops protective effects, vaccination of hand-foot-mouth disease vaccine at the peak period has a good guiding significance for the timeliness and pertinence of vaccination.
3. Epidemiological characteristics of imported acute infectious diseases in the border areas of Yunnan province, 2008-2017
Tian HUANG ; Lei ZHOU ; Tao SHEN ; Huihui LIU ; Jibo HE ; Erda ZHENG ; Yan ZHENG ; Xia PENG
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2019;40(4):412-416
Objective:
To understand the epidemiological characteristics of imported acute infectious diseases between 2008 and 2017 in the border areas of Yunnan province.
Methods:
All the cases occurred between January 2008 and December 2017 and related information was from the Chinese CDC infectious disease report information management system, according to definition of imported cases diagnosed by clinicians. Epidemiological characteristics of the imported cases of related information were gathered.
Results:
A total of 13 157 imported acute infectious diseases were reported from the border areas of Yunnan province, which accounted for 6.03


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