1.Evaluation on repeatability and accuracy of iCare IC100 tonometer in measuring intraocular pressure
Yue PENG ; Ping ZHAO ; Juan TAN ; Rui LIU ; Yiping ZHENG ; Jiangping HUANG
International Eye Science 2025;25(3):494-498
AIM: To evaluate the repeatability and accuracy of iCare IC100 tonometer in measuring intraocular pressure(IOP)by comparing the correlation and difference with Goldmann applanation tonometry(GAT)and non-contact tonometer(NCT), and to compare the correlation of the three types of IOP measurement with the central corneal thickness(CCT).METHODS: Prospective study. A total of 90 outpatients(90 eyes)in Liaoning Aier Eye Hospital from March 2019 to May 2019 were randomly selected as study subjects. All patients were measured IOP using iCare IC100, NCT, and GAT. The interclass correlation coefficient(ICC)was used to evaluate the repeatability of IOP measured 3 times consecutively using an intraocular tonometer. The correlation and consistency of iCare IC100, GAT and NCT were compared by one-way ANOVA, Pearson linear correlation analysis and Bland-Altman analysis. The linear regression analysis was used to analyze the correlation of the three tonometers with CCT.RESULTS: The mean IOP measured with iCare IC100, GAT and NCT was 19.74±6.90, 19.88±7.07 and 18.47±6.31 mmHg, respectively(F=1.180, P=0.309). The measurements of iCare IC100 with GAT, iCare IC100 with NCT and GAT with NCT were all positively correlated(r=0.930, 0.946, 0.918, all P<0.05), the Bland-Altman analysis showed that the mean differences between iCare IC100 and GAT, iCare IC100 and NCT, GAT and NCT were -0.142±2.61, 1.27±2.24, and 1.41±2.81 mmHg, respectively, with 97%(87/90), 96%(86/90), and 97%(87/90)IOP differences distributed within their 95% confidence intervals. The IOP measured with iCare IC100 and CCT, GAT and CCT and NCT and CCT were all positively correlated(r=0.426, 0.353, 0.451, all P<0.01). The linear regression equations between iCare IC100, GAT and NCT measurement and CCT were iCare IC100 IOP=-19.62+0.074×CCT; GAT IOP=-13.54+0.063×CCT; NCT IOP=-19.65+0.072×CCT; that is, for every 10 μm increase in CCT, iCare IC100 measurement increased by 0.74 mmHg, GAT measurement increased by 0.63 mmHg, and NCT measurement increased by 0.72 mmHg.CONCLUSION: The iCare IC100 tonometer has good repeatability and accuracy in measuring IOP, and the CCT has a greater impact on the measurement of iCare IC100 than the GAT and NCT.
2.Evaluation on repeatability and accuracy of iCare IC100 tonometer in measuring intraocular pressure
Yue PENG ; Ping ZHAO ; Juan TAN ; Rui LIU ; Yiping ZHENG ; Jiangping HUANG
International Eye Science 2025;25(3):494-498
AIM: To evaluate the repeatability and accuracy of iCare IC100 tonometer in measuring intraocular pressure(IOP)by comparing the correlation and difference with Goldmann applanation tonometry(GAT)and non-contact tonometer(NCT), and to compare the correlation of the three types of IOP measurement with the central corneal thickness(CCT).METHODS: Prospective study. A total of 90 outpatients(90 eyes)in Liaoning Aier Eye Hospital from March 2019 to May 2019 were randomly selected as study subjects. All patients were measured IOP using iCare IC100, NCT, and GAT. The interclass correlation coefficient(ICC)was used to evaluate the repeatability of IOP measured 3 times consecutively using an intraocular tonometer. The correlation and consistency of iCare IC100, GAT and NCT were compared by one-way ANOVA, Pearson linear correlation analysis and Bland-Altman analysis. The linear regression analysis was used to analyze the correlation of the three tonometers with CCT.RESULTS: The mean IOP measured with iCare IC100, GAT and NCT was 19.74±6.90, 19.88±7.07 and 18.47±6.31 mmHg, respectively(F=1.180, P=0.309). The measurements of iCare IC100 with GAT, iCare IC100 with NCT and GAT with NCT were all positively correlated(r=0.930, 0.946, 0.918, all P<0.05), the Bland-Altman analysis showed that the mean differences between iCare IC100 and GAT, iCare IC100 and NCT, GAT and NCT were -0.142±2.61, 1.27±2.24, and 1.41±2.81 mmHg, respectively, with 97%(87/90), 96%(86/90), and 97%(87/90)IOP differences distributed within their 95% confidence intervals. The IOP measured with iCare IC100 and CCT, GAT and CCT and NCT and CCT were all positively correlated(r=0.426, 0.353, 0.451, all P<0.01). The linear regression equations between iCare IC100, GAT and NCT measurement and CCT were iCare IC100 IOP=-19.62+0.074×CCT; GAT IOP=-13.54+0.063×CCT; NCT IOP=-19.65+0.072×CCT; that is, for every 10 μm increase in CCT, iCare IC100 measurement increased by 0.74 mmHg, GAT measurement increased by 0.63 mmHg, and NCT measurement increased by 0.72 mmHg.CONCLUSION: The iCare IC100 tonometer has good repeatability and accuracy in measuring IOP, and the CCT has a greater impact on the measurement of iCare IC100 than the GAT and NCT.
3.Shexiang Tongxin Dropping Pill Improves Stable Angina Patients with Phlegm-Heat and Blood-Stasis Syndrome: A Multicenter, Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Trial.
Ying-Qiang ZHAO ; Yong-Fa XING ; Ke-Yong ZOU ; Wei-Dong JIANG ; Ting-Hai DU ; Bo CHEN ; Bao-Ping YANG ; Bai-Ming QU ; Li-Yue WANG ; Gui-Hong GONG ; Yan-Ling SUN ; Li-Qi WANG ; Gao-Feng ZHOU ; Yu-Gang DONG ; Min CHEN ; Xue-Juan ZHANG ; Tian-Lun YANG ; Min-Zhou ZHANG ; Ming-Jun ZHAO ; Yue DENG ; Chang-Jiang XIAO ; Lin WANG ; Bao-He WANG
Chinese journal of integrative medicine 2025;31(8):685-693
OBJECTIVE:
To evaluate the efficacy and safety of Shexiang Tongxin Dropping Pill (STDP) in treating stable angina patients with phlegm-heat and blood-stasis syndrome by exercise duration and metabolic equivalents.
METHODS:
This multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial enrolled stable angina patients with phlegm-heat and blood-stasis syndrome from 22 hospitals. They were randomized 1:1 to STDP (35 mg/pill, 6 pills per day) or placebo for 56 days. The primary outcome was the exercise duration and metabolic equivalents (METs) assessed by the standard Bruce exercise treadmill test after 56 days of treatment. The secondary outcomes included the total angina symptom score, Chinese medicine (CM) symptom scores, Seattle Angina Questionnaire (SAQ) scores, changes in ST-T on electrocardiogram and adverse events (AEs).
RESULTS:
This trial enrolled 309 patients, including 155 and 154 in the STDP and placebo groups, respectively. STDP significantly prolonged exercise duration with an increase of 51.0 s, compared to a decrease of 12.0 s with placebo (change rate: -11.1% vs. 3.2%, P<0.01). The increase in METs was significantly greater in the STDP group than in the placebo group (change: -0.4 vs. 0.0, change rate: -5.0% vs. 0.0%, P<0.01). The improvement of total angina symptom scores (25.0% vs. 0.0%), CM symptom scores (38.7% vs. 11.8%), reduction of nitroglycerin consumption (100.0% vs. 11.3%), and all domains of SAQ, were significantly greater with STDP than placebo (all P<0.01). The changes in Q-T intervals at 28 and 56 days from baseline were similar between the two groups (both P>0.05). Twenty-five participants (16.3%) with STDP and 16 (10.5%) with placebo experienced AEs (P=0.131), with no serious AEs observed.
CONCLUSION
STDP could improve exercise tolerance in patients with stable angina and phlegm-heat and blood stasis syndrome, with a favorable safety profile. (Registration No. ChiCTR-IPR-15006020).
Humans
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Double-Blind Method
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Drugs, Chinese Herbal/adverse effects*
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Male
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Female
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Middle Aged
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Angina, Stable/physiopathology*
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Aged
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Syndrome
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Treatment Outcome
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Placebos
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Tablets
4.Advances in role and mechanism of traditional Chinese medicine active ingredients in regulating balance of Th1/Th2 and Th17/Treg immune responses in asthma patients.
Ya-Sheng DENG ; Lan-Hua XI ; Yan-Ping FAN ; Wen-Yue LI ; Yong-Hui LIU ; Zhao-Bing NI ; Ming-Chan WEI ; Jiang LIN
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(4):1000-1021
Asthma is a chronic inflammatory disease involving multiple inflammatory cells and cytokines. Its pathogenesis is complex, involving various cells and cytokines. Traditional Chinese medicine(TCM) theory suggests that the pathogenesis of asthma is closely related to the dysfunction of internal organs such as the lungs, spleen, and kidneys. In contrast, modern immunological studies have revealed the central role of T helper 1(Th1)/T helper 2(Th2) and T helper 17(Th17)/regulatory T(Treg) cellular immune imbalance in the pathogenesis of asthma. Th1/Th2 imbalance is manifested as hyperfunction of Th2 cells, which promotes the synthesis of immunoglobulin E(IgE) and the activation of eosinophil granulocytes, leading to airway hyperresponsiveness and inflammation.Meanwhile, Th17/Treg imbalance exacerbates the inflammatory response in the airways, further contributing to asthma pathology.Currently, therapeutic strategies for asthma are actively exploring potential targets for regulating the balance of Th1/Th2 and Th17/Treg immune responses. These targets include cytokines, transcription factors, key proteins, and non-coding RNAs. Precisely regulating the expression and function of these targets can effectively modulate the activation and differentiation of immune cells. In recent years,traditional Chinese medicine active ingredients have shown unique potential and prospects in the field of asthma treatment. Based on this, the present study systematically summarizes the efficacy and specific mechanisms of TCM active ingredients in treating asthma by regulating Th1/Th2 and Th17/Treg immune balance through literature review and analysis. These active ingredients, including flavonoids, terpenoids, polysaccharides, alkaloids, and phenolic acids, exert their effects through various mechanisms, such as inhibiting the activation of inflammatory cells, reducing the release of cytokines, and promoting the normal differentiation of immune cells. This study aims to provide a solid foundation for the widespread application and in-depth development of TCM in asthma treatment and to offer new ideas for clinical research and drug development of asthma.
Asthma/genetics*
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Humans
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Drugs, Chinese Herbal/chemistry*
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Th2 Cells/drug effects*
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Th17 Cells/drug effects*
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T-Lymphocytes, Regulatory/drug effects*
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Th1 Cells/drug effects*
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Animals
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Cytokines/immunology*
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Medicine, Chinese Traditional
5.Advances in pathogenesis of asthma airway remodeling and intervention mechanism of traditional Chinese medicine.
Ya-Sheng DENG ; Jiang LIN ; Yu-Jiang XI ; Yan-Ping FAN ; Wen-Yue LI ; Yong-Hui LIU ; Zhao-Bing NI ; Xi MING
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(8):2050-2070
Asthma, a chronic inflammatory airway disease with a high global prevalence, has a complex pathogenesis, in which airway remodeling plays a key role in the chronicity of the disease. Airway remodeling involves a series of pathophysiological changes, including airway epithelial damage, proliferation of mucous glands and goblet cells, subepithelial fibrosis, proliferation and migration of airway smooth muscle cells, and epithelial-mesenchymal transition. These complex pathological changes significantly increase airway resistance and responsiveness, forming an important pathological basis for refractory asthma. Currently, the regulatory mechanisms of airway remodeling focus on signaling pathways and regulatory targets. The signaling pathways include phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase(PI3K)/protein kinase B(Akt), nuclear factor-κB(NF-κB), transforming growth factor-β1(TGF-β1)/Smads, and mitogen-activated protein kinase(MAPK). The regulatory targets include microRNAs(miRNAs), competing endogenous RNAs(ceRNAs), long non-coding RNAs(lncRNAs), and circular RNAs(circRNAs). Key proteins involved in these processes include TGF-β1, silencing information regulator 2-related enzyme 1(SIRT1), chitinase 3-like protein 1(YKL-40), and adenosine deaminase-metalloproteinase 33(ADAM33). In recent years, the potential of traditional Chinese medicine in the treatment of asthma has become increasingly evident. Its active ingredients, extracts, and complexes can inhibit airway remodeling in asthma through multiple pathways, demonstrating a variety of effects, including anti-inflammatory actions, inhibition of smooth muscle cell proliferation and migration, regulation of epithelial-mesenchymal transition, attenuation of fibrosis and basement membrane thickening, reduction of mucus secretion, inhibition of vascular remodeling, modulation of immune imbalance, and antioxidative stress. This paper aims to provide an in-depth analysis of the pathogenesis and therapeutic targets of asthma, offering theoretical support and innovative strategies for clinical research and drug development in the treatment of asthma.
Asthma/pathology*
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Humans
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Airway Remodeling/drug effects*
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Drugs, Chinese Herbal/therapeutic use*
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Animals
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Signal Transduction/drug effects*
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Medicine, Chinese Traditional
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Transforming Growth Factor beta1/metabolism*
6.Establishment of A Model Combining with Traditional Chinese Medicine Syndrome for Predicting the Risk of Disease Progression in Patients with Membranous Nephropathy
Xiaoyan HUANG ; Xian LI ; Kun ZOU ; Xiaofan HONG ; Yue CAO ; Xing LIANG ; Rongrong WANG ; Ping LI ; Daixin ZHAO ; Wu ZHOU ; Kun BAO
Journal of Guangzhou University of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2025;42(3):774-781
Objective To construct a model combining with traditional Chinese medicine(TCM)syndrome for predicting the risk of disease progression in patients with idiopathic membranous nephropathy(IMN)by machine learning methods,thus to quantitatively evaluating the value of TCM syndrome in the prediction of the risk of disease progression in IMN.Methods Monofactor analysis,recursive feature elimination(RFE)and multivariate binary Logistic regression analysis were used to screen the independent related factors affecting the risk of disease progression of IMN,and then a risk prediction model was constructed.A total of 102 patients with IMN were randomly assigned to the training set and the test set in a ratio of 65∶35,and then the comparison was conducted in the performance indicators of accuracy,sensitivity,specificity,F1 value,and area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)area under the curve(AUC)of the risk prediction model with or without the inclusion of the TCM syndrome information.Results Before the inclusion of TCM syndrome information,12 clinical characteristic variables for patients with MN were obtained after monofactor analysis combined with RFE screening,and they were age,hemoglobin quantification,urinary occult blood,24-hour urine protein quantification,urine protein-creatinine ratio,estimated glomerular filtration rate(eGFR),creatinine,uric acid,alanine transaminase,anti-phospholipase A2 receptor antibody(PLA2R-Ab),total cholesterol,and low-density lipoprotein cholesterd.A risk cholesterol prediction model containing the above variables was constructed.The multivariate binary Logistic regression analysis showed that the differences of the clinical variables mentioned above between the training-set group and test-set group were statistically significant,and the risk prediction model presented good sensitivity and predictability.Monofactor analysis combined with RFE screening was performed again after the inclusion of TCM syndrome information,and then 14 variables were obtained,which included blood stasis syndrome and dampness obstruction syndrome.The sensitivity and specificity of the model with the inclusion of the TCM syndrome information were significantly improved when compared with those without the inclusion of TCM syndrome information.Conclusion The results of the study initially indicate that TCM syndrome can be used as an important supplementary variable for predicting the risk of disease progression in IMN,and will provide a reference for intelligent diagnosis through the integration of traditional Chinese and western medicine information,and will supply the guidance for the treatment of IMN with TCM.
7.Research on the prediction of Hepatitis C incidence trend in Taiyuan City based on combination model
Siyao GUO ; Qiyu ZHAO ; Yue ZHANG ; Ping ZHANG ; Xiaowen CHE ; Jinge ZHENG ; Lei WANG
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2025;46(2):204-209
Objective:Based on the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, back propagation neutral network (BPNN), and ARIMA-BPNN model, select the optimal model suitable for predicting the incidence trend of hepatitis C in Taiyuan City according to the characteristics of the data.Methods:The data of reported cases of hepatitis C in Taiyuan from 2008 to 2021 were selected, and the seasonal trend decomposition chart was used to analyze the seasonal characteristics of the monthly incidence rate of hepatitis C in Taiyuan during the period, and the ARIMA model, BPNN model, and ARIMA-BPNN model were established to predict. The performance of the model was measured using four indicators: mean absolute error ( MAE), mean squared error ( MSE), root mean square error ( RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error ( MAPE). Results:A total of 20 025 cases of hepatitis C were reported, and the overall incidence trend was stable. The BPNN model performed well on MSE, MAE, and RMSE indicators, the ARIMA-BPNN model performed well on MAPE indicators, and the ARIMA model performed relatively averagely. Conclusions:The ARIMA-BPNN model is a better model for predicting the trend of hepatitis C in Taiyuan City, with a higher predictive performance than a single model. It has significant prospects in predicting the trend of infectious diseases.
8.Changing antimicrobial resistance profiles of Burkholderia cepacia in hospitals across China:results from CHINET Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance Program,2015-2021
Chunyue GE ; Yunjian HU ; Xiaoman AI ; Yang YANG ; Fupin HU ; Demei ZHU ; Yingchun XU ; Xiaojiang ZHANG ; Hui LI ; Ping JI ; Yi XIE ; Mei KANG ; Chuanqing WANG ; Pan FU ; Yuanhong XU ; Ying HUANG ; Ziyong SUN ; Zhongju CHEN ; Yuxing NI ; Jingyong SUN ; Yunzhuo CHU ; Sufei TIAN ; Zhidong HU ; Jin LI ; Yunsong YU ; Jie LIN ; Bin SHAN ; Yan DU ; Sufang GUO ; Lianhua WEI ; Fengmei ZOU ; Hong ZHANG ; Chun WANG ; Chao ZHUO ; Danhong SU ; Dawen GUO ; Jinying ZHAO ; Hua YU ; Xiangning HUANG ; Wen'en LIU ; Yanming LI ; Yan JIN ; Chunhong SHAO ; Xuesong XU ; Chao YAN ; Shanmei WANG ; Yafei CHU ; Lixia ZHANG ; Juan MA ; Shuping ZHOU ; Yan ZHOU ; Lei ZHU ; Jinhua MENG ; Fang DONG ; Zhiyong LÜ ; Fangfang HU ; Han SHEN ; Wanqing ZHOU ; Wei JIA ; Gang LI ; Jinsong WU ; Yuemei LU ; Jihong LI ; Jinju DUAN ; Jianbang KANG ; Xiaobo MA ; Yanping ZHENG ; Ruyi GUO ; Yan ZHU ; Yunsheng CHEN ; Qing MENG ; Shifu WANG ; Xuefei HU ; Jilu SHEN ; Wenhui HUANG ; Ruizhong WANG ; Hua FANG ; Bixia YU ; Yong ZHAO ; Ping GONG ; Kaizhen WENG ; Yirong ZHANG ; Jiangshan LIU ; Longfeng LIAO ; Hongqin GU ; Lin JIANG ; Wen HE ; Shunhong XUE ; Jiao FENG ; Chunlei YUE
Chinese Journal of Infection and Chemotherapy 2025;25(5):557-562
Objective To examine the changing prevalence and antimicrobial resistance profiles of Burkholderia cepacia in 52 hospitals across China from 2015 to 2021.Methods A total of 9 261 strains of B.cepacia were collected from 52 hospitals between January 1,2015 and December 31,2021.Antimicrobial susceptibility of the strains was tested using Kirby-Bauer method or automated antimicrobial susceptibility testing systems according to a unified protocol.The results were interpreted according to the breakpoints released in the Clinical & Laboratory Standards Institute(CLSI)guidelines(2023 edition).Results A total of 9 261 strains of B.cepacia were isolated from all age groups,especially elderly patients.The proportion was 11.1%(1 032 strains)in children,significantly lower than the proportion in adults.About half(46.5%,4 310/9 261)of the strains were isolated from patients at least 60 years old and 42.3%(3 919/9 261)of the strains were isolated from young adults.Most isolates(71.1%)were isolated from sputum and respiratory secretions,followed by urine(10.7%)and blood samples(8.1%).B.cepacia isolates were highly susceptible to the five antimicrobial agents recommended in the CLSI M100 document(33rd edition,2023).B.cepacia isolates showed relatively higher resistance rates to meropenem and levofloxacin.However,the resistance rates to ceftazidime,trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole,and minocycline remained below 8.1%.The percentage of B.cepacia strains resistant to levofloxacin was the highest compared to other antibiotics in any of the three age groups(from 12.4%in the patients<18 years old to 20.6%in the patients aged 60 years or older).Conclusions B.cepacia is one of the clinically important non-fermenting gram-negative bacteria.Accurate and timely reporting of antimicrobial susceptibility test results and ongoing antimicrobial resistance surveillance are helpful for rational prescription of antimicrobial agents and proper prevention and control of nosocomial infections.
9.Epidemiological distribution characteristics and transmission patterns of Campylobacter in a Shandong broiler slaughterhouse
Shuai MIAO ; Xiu-mei HUANG ; Lin WANG ; Jun-hui LIU ; Jian-mei ZHAO ; Yu-bin GAO ; Shi-ping SONG ; Si-yu ZHANG ; Na LIU ; Ge ZHAO ; Xi-yue ZHANG ; Jun-wei WANG ; Juan WANG ; Zhi-na QU
Chinese Journal of Zoonoses 2025;41(6):583-591
This research investigated the contamination level,distribution of drug-resistant strains,and molecular epidemiologi-cal characteristics of Campylobacter,and further explored transmission pathways and prevention strategies.Cecum,chicken carcass,chicken product,and environmental samples,as well as swabs from workers'hands,were collected from a slaughterhouse in a large broiler group in the Jiaodong area between August 2023 and July 2024.Quantitative contamination assessment of Campylobacter in chicken carcasses and chicken products was performed.After microbial mass spectrometry identification,the representative strains of different links were selected for drug resistance testing and whole genome sequencing(WGS).On the basis of the sequencing results,the resistance genes,virulence genes,multilocus sequence typing(MLST),and phylogenetic characteristics of representative strains were analyzed.Homology comparisons were performed between isolates and strains from patients with diarrhea in the NCBI database.A total of 297 Campylobacter strains were isolated from 806 samples,and the overall detection rate was 36.85%.The detection rate of Campylobacter was highest in the evisceration process(47.33%),followed by the cutting process(35.64%).Overall,the Campylo-bacter detection rate first increased,then decreased,and subsequently increased.Drug sensitivity testing revealed that 90 isolates were resistant to nalidixic acid and ciprofloxacin,and 94.97%of isolates were resistant to tetracycline.WGS showed that both Campylo-bacter jejuni(C.jejuni)and Campylobacter coli(C.coli)carried many drug resistance and virulence genes.ST-14176 of C.jejuni was isolated for the first time herein.The predominant ST-8261 strain of C.jejuni and ST-860,ST-829,and ST-1586 strains of C.coli are known to cause human diarrhea.LOS expression genes associated with Guillain-Barré syndrome(GBS)were detected in both C.jejuni isolates from the slaughter chain and patients with GBS.Some strains exhibited close genetic relatedness to human-derived Campylo-bacter strains from the NCBI database.The detection rate of Campylobacter in the slaughterhouse first increased,then decreased,and subsequently increased,and the quantitative contamination level of each link was similar to the detection rate.Quantitative analysis of chicken carcasses/products revealed that the average bacterial load was highest in eviscerated carcasses(102.80 cfu/g),and the high-est amount of Campylobacter in chicken products reached 451.80 cfu/g.Abundant drug resistance genes and virulence genes were iden-tified,and the drug resistance genes were highly correlated with the drug resistance rate.Therefore,surveillance intensity and control measures for Campylobacter in slaughter processes should be strengthened.
10.Research on the prediction of Hepatitis C incidence trend in Taiyuan City based on combination model
Siyao GUO ; Qiyu ZHAO ; Yue ZHANG ; Ping ZHANG ; Xiaowen CHE ; Jinge ZHENG ; Lei WANG
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2025;46(2):204-209
Objective:Based on the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, back propagation neutral network (BPNN), and ARIMA-BPNN model, select the optimal model suitable for predicting the incidence trend of hepatitis C in Taiyuan City according to the characteristics of the data.Methods:The data of reported cases of hepatitis C in Taiyuan from 2008 to 2021 were selected, and the seasonal trend decomposition chart was used to analyze the seasonal characteristics of the monthly incidence rate of hepatitis C in Taiyuan during the period, and the ARIMA model, BPNN model, and ARIMA-BPNN model were established to predict. The performance of the model was measured using four indicators: mean absolute error ( MAE), mean squared error ( MSE), root mean square error ( RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error ( MAPE). Results:A total of 20 025 cases of hepatitis C were reported, and the overall incidence trend was stable. The BPNN model performed well on MSE, MAE, and RMSE indicators, the ARIMA-BPNN model performed well on MAPE indicators, and the ARIMA model performed relatively averagely. Conclusions:The ARIMA-BPNN model is a better model for predicting the trend of hepatitis C in Taiyuan City, with a higher predictive performance than a single model. It has significant prospects in predicting the trend of infectious diseases.

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