Objective: To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease. Methods: Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance. Results: A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October). Conclusions For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.

Hygroscopicity research has long been a key focus and hot topic in Chinese materia medica（CMM）. Elucidating hygroscopic mechanisms plays a vital role in formulation design， process optimization， and storage condition selection. Hygroscopic models serve as essential tools for characterizing CMM hygroscopic mechanisms， with various types available. The double exponential model is a kinetic mathematical model constructed based on the law of conservation of energy and Fick's first law of diffusion， tailored to the physical properties of CMM extracts. In recent years， this model has been extensively applied to simulate the dynamic moisture absorption behavior of CMM extracts and solid dosage forms under varying humidity conditions. It has revealed the correlation between moisture absorption kinetic parameters and material properties， offering a new perspective for characterizing the moisture uptake behavior of CMM. This paper systematically reviews the application progress of this model in the field of CMM， analyzes its advantages， disadvantages， and challenges in this domain， and explores its potential application trends in other fields. It aims to provide references for elucidating the moisture absorption mechanisms of CMM and researching moisture-proofing technologies， while also offering insights for its broader application in food and polymer materials.

Periodontitis is a chronic inflammatory disease. The heterotopic colonization of periodontal pathogens results in the development of several systemic diseases. Porphyromonas gingivalis (P. gingivalis), a key pathogen for periodontitis, has been linked to the development of various cancers, such as oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC), lung cancer, esophageal cancer, pancreatic cancer, colorectal cancer, cervical cancer, and prostate cancer. P. gingivalis promote the progression of tumor through various mechanisms, P. gingivalis regulates proteins targeting cell cycle and apoptosis to promote proliferation of tumor cells directly, enhances tumor stemness by upregulating the expression of cluster of differentiation 44 (CD44) and cluster of differentiation 133 (CD133), activates inflammasome and p38/c-Jun N-terminal kinase 1(JNK) pathways, regulates tumor-associated neutrophil (TAN) polarization to remodel the tumor microenvironment, regulates epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) to promote tumor metastasis, remodel macrophage function to evade host immune response, and regulates multi-communicating with symbiotic bacteria. In addition, P. gingivalis accelerates the progression of esophageal cancer, pancreatic cancer, colorectal cancer, and prostate cancer by promoting cell proliferation, inhibiting apoptosis, inducing chronic inflammation, and escaping immunity. However, the oral microbiome is a complex system, whether the interactions between oral bacteria affect tumor progression needs to be further investigated.

ObjectiveHistorically documented Zhejiang Atractylodis Macrocephalae Rhizoma（Baizhu） possesses premium characteristics such as phoenix-like head and crane-like neck， pronounced sweetness， and fragrant aroma. However， its current market circulation is low， and the processed products with Zhejiang-style characteristics are at the risk of being lost. This study aims to preserve the ancient Zhejiang-style processing techniques and evaluate them using modern scientific methods. MethodsMultidimensional intelligent sensory evaluation was used to digitally characterize the "quality-structure" of the external appearance of nine-steamed and nine-processed Baizhu medicinal materials（intermediate processed products） and the "odor-taste" of the internal quality of its decoction pieces（slices）， and the appearance parameters were digitally characterized by colorimeter， texture analyzer， electronic nose and electronic tongue， the chemical composition was analyzed via ultra-performance liquid chromatography-quadrupole-time-of-flight mass spectrometry（UPLC-Q-TOF-MS/MS）. Then， cluster analysis on the differences in odor between the medicinal materials（intermediate processed products） and decoction pieces（slices） of nine-steamed and nine-processed Baizhu was conducted， as well as the differences in taste between water-soluble and alcohol-soluble extracts of the decoction pieces（slices）， and the correlation analysis of chroma value-alcohol-soluble extract content-component response value. ResultsThe nine-steamed and nine-processed Baizhu had a dark brown to black epidermis， a brownish-yellow to brownish-gray cross-section， a slightly tough texture， a faint odor， and a slightly sweet， bitter and pungent taste. Texture analyzer measurements revealed minimal adhesion and maximum recovery in the middle section of the characteristic processed Baizhu， consistent with the processing endpoint of thorough steaming and cooking. The head section showed the highest internal hardness， elasticity and chewiness， indicating a denser texture in this area. The electronic nose sensor could clearly distinguish the difference between the medicinal materials and its decoction pieces， with a more significant clustering effect at 60 ℃ for 30 minutes compared to ambient temperature headspace for 2 hours， highlighting the significant impact of the baking degree before slicing on the quality. The electronic tongue taste signal map clearly distinguished the differences between water-soluble and alcohol-soluble extracts of nine-steamed and nine-processed Baizhu decoction pieces， and the addition of auxiliary materials during processing could enhance its alcohol-soluble extract content. A total of 82 chemical components were identified in the characteristic processed Baizhu. After processing， the contents of 58 components increased， while 24 components decreased. Correlation analysis revealed significant negative correlations（P<0.01） between ethanol-soluble extract content and colorimetric values of brightness（L^*）， yellow-bule value（b^*）， and total color difference（E^*_ab）. E^*_ab showed marked negative correlations（P<0.05） with the response values of isochlorogenic acid A and C. ConclusionThis study establishes a modern intelligent sensory evaluation model for multidimensional holographic characterization of nine-steamed and nine-processed Baizhu， clarifying the correlation between increased isochlorogenic acid content and the visual color appearance after different steaming cycles， as well as its intrinsic alcohol-soluble extracts. This provides a reference for quality evaluation and processing standards of the Zhejiang-style characteristic processed products.

Objective: To explore the nonlinear dynamic effects of social capital, adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) and depressive symptoms on suicidal behavior among vocational high school students, so as to provide theoretical basis and practical references for formulating suicide prevention strategies. Methods: A convenience sampling method was employed to include 668 students from a vocational high school from Wuhan in March 2023. Social capital was used as the asymmetry variable, while ACEs and depressive symptoms were used as bifurcation variables, a cusp catastrophe model was constructed to analyze the nonlinear changes in suicidal behavior among vocational high school students, and its fit was compared with linear and Logistic regression models. Results: Among students in the health vocational high school in Wuhan, only suicidal ideation accounted for 8.5%, only suicide attempt for 18.6%, neither accounted for 31.9%, and both for 41.0%. Gender, left behind experience, family economic status, parental parenting styles, depressive symptoms, social capital, and ACEs were all related factors influencing suicidal behavior among vocational high school students ( χ 2/H=19.03, 13.33, 21.11, 46.70, 144.38, 24.61, 118.77, all P <0.05). Violin plots showed a bimodal distribution of suicidal behavior, indicating nonlinear variation characteristics. The cusp catastrophe model results showed that social capital was negatively correlated with suicidal behavior, but the relationship was bifurcated by ACEs ( α social capital = -0.006 , β ACEs =0.075) and depressive symptoms ( α social capital =-0.013, β depressive =0.028) (all P <0.05). When both ACEs and depressive symptoms coexisted, the impact of ACEs was stronger ( β ACEs =0.077, β depressive =0.014) (both P <0.05). The cusp catastrophe model fitted ( R 2=0.886, 0.881, 0.882) better than the linear ( R 2=0.258, 0.219, 0.258) and Logistic regression models ( R 2= 0.242, 0.211 , 0.176). Gender stratified analysis results showed that bifurcation effect of ACEs was stronger in males than in females( β boys =0.224, β girls =0.086); in females, both ACEs and depressive symptoms had a bifurcation effect, with the former showing a stronger effect ( β ACEs =0.062, β depressive =0.015) (all P <0.05). Conclusions Suicidal behavior among vocational high school students exhibits nonlinear characteristics. Improving social capital to reducing ACEs and depressive symptoms may contribute to decreasing adolescent suicidal behaviors.

Depressive disorder is a prevalent mental illness characterized by pronounced and enduring symptoms of depression and cognitive impairment. The escalating pressures of modern society have led to a corresponding rise in the number of depressive disorder patients, particularly those exposed to adverse social, economic, political, and environmental factors which exacerbate the risk of this disorder. The pathogenesis of depressive disorder is multifaceted, encompassing oxidative stress, neuroplasticity alterations, neuroinflammation, neurotransmitter system imbalances, and intestinal microecological disruptions, among others. Clinically, conventional antidepressants are primarily predicated on the monoamine neurotransmitter hypothesis. This theory posits that depressive disorder can be ameliorated by regulating the levels of neurotransmitters within the body through a singular mechanism. However, the complex and multifaceted pathogenesis of depressive disorder results in limited selectivity for these drugs. Mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) is a conserved serine/threonine kinase that plays a crucial role in various cellular physiological and pathological processes, including cell growth, differentiation, stress adaptation, and inflammatory response. It is instrumental in maintaining cellular homeostasis and regulating cellular responses. Numerous studies indicate that MAPK is involved in the pathogenesis and progression of depressive disorder through various pathogenesis. However, what deserves attention is that the interaction between the pathogenesis and dynamics of regulatory process remains unclear. Modulating MAPK has been shown to influence the onset and progression of depressive disorder, though the precise mechanism remains elusive. Within the MAPK family, aberrant activity of extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK) can damage hippocampal neurons and overactivate microglia, precipitating depressive disorder. Excessive activation of c-Jun N-terminal kinase (JNK) results in heightened neuronal apoptosis in the hippocampus and prefrontal cortex, and suppresses the expression of neurotrophic factors. p38, a key regulator in inflammatory reactions, can induce neuroinflammation when overactive, leading to depressive disorder. ERK, JNK, and p38 sub-pathways do not function in isolation but rather interact synergistically and/or antagonistically through shared activators and common target molecules. Consequently, these sub-pathways form a complementary and coordinated regulatory network. In addition, MAPK family members can jointly influence the process of depressive disorder by sharing upstream factors and regulating common downstream targets, and there is a lack of identification of their markers and screening for subgroups. The collective abnormal activities of these MAPK family members illuminate the underlying mechanisms of depressive disorder, suggesting that MAPK could serve as a potential therapeutic target for this disorder. As for the study of ERK, different models of depressive disorder have contradictory effects on its activity. The primary cause of these differences can be attributed to the distinct pathological environments utilized in the creation of depressive disorder models. In the future, it is suggested that we use the inducement of depressive disorder as a modeling standard to accurately simulate the onset of depressive disorder to carry out accurate treatment according to the causes of depressive disorder. Research shows that classic clinical drugs, novel MAPK inhibitors and certain traditional Chinese medicines can prevent and treat depressive disorder by regulating the MAPK signaling pathway. Research on MAPK remains limited, particularly concerning the permeability and cellular specificity across the blood-brain barrier and the identification of objective predictive markers. Although inhibitors face challenges, they also possess significant advantages and developmental potential. This paper systematically summarizes the current status of MAPK in the treatment of depressive disorder, in order to provide insights for researching the pathogenesis of depressive disorder and developing new antidepressant drugs.

BACKGROUND:Exosomes derived from mesenchymal stem cells play pivotal roles in cell communication and epigenetic regulation due to their low immunogenicity and targeted delivery effects,and have been clinically applied in the treatment of various diseases.OBJECTIVE:To review the isolation,purification,identification methods,and application progress of mesenchymal stem cell-derived exosomes,and to facilitate the development of large-scale preparation techniques and clinical translation of mesenchymal stem cell-derived exosomes.METHODS:The Chinese search terms"exosome,mesenchymal stem cells,isolation,purification,characterization,clinical application"and the English search terms"exosome,extracellular vesicles,mesenchymal stem cells,isolation,characterization,application"were used to search the literature published before September 2024 in CNKI,PubMed,and Web of Science databases.Articles with poor relevance to the topic,outdated,or duplicated content were excluded,and finally,109 articles were included for review.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)This paper reviews recent methods for isolating and purifying exosomes,comparing the characteristics of ultracentrifugation,ultrafiltration,size-exclusion chromatography,polymer precipitation,immunoaffinity,microfluidic methods,and other novel approaches based on their underlying principles.(2)Methods for identifying exosomes can be categorized into physical and biochemical analyses,characterizing exosomes based on their shape,size,and characteristic proteins.(3)Mesenchymal stem cell-derived exosomes have broad applications in multiple fields such as medical aesthetics,wound repair,and cancer treatment,due to their immune-regulatory properties and ability to cross biological barriers.(4)The clinical translation of exosomes faces challenges due to their complex structure,lack of universal isolation techniques,and poor stability,making it difficult to achieve in a short period of time.

BACKGROUND:Nanocell vesicles possess functions such as re-epithelialization,antioxidation,anti-inflammation,and regulation of extracellular matrix remodeling.Meanwhile,apoptotic bodies have the immunomodulatory effects.Therefore,the combination of the two to form nanofusion vesicles can synergistically promote the healing of diabetic skin wounds.OBJECTIVE:To elucidate the impact of nanofusion vesicles on skin wound healing in a diabetic murine model.METHODS:(1)Material preparation and characterization:The primary bone marrow mesenchymal stem cells of C57BL/6J neonatal mice and the neutrophil apoptotic bodies of C57BL/6J mice were isolated and extracted.The nanofusion vesicles were prepared by micro-extrusion mechanism.(2)In vitro experiment:MTT assay was used to detect the proliferative effect of different concentrations of nanofusion vesicles on NIH-3T3 cells and human umbilical vein endothelial cells.Reactive oxygen species fluorescence probe was used to detect the antioxidant effect of nano-fusion vesicles on NIH-3T3 cells treated with hydrogen peroxide(H2O2).The inhibitory effect of nanofusion vesicles on RAW 264.7 macrophage inflammation induced by lipopolyside was detected by real-time quantitative RT-qPCR.(3)In vivo experiment:36 male C57BL/6J mice were employed to develop a murine model of diabetes mellitus.Following the successful induction of diabetes,two circular full-thickness wounds,each with a diameter of 6 mm,were created on either side of the diabetic mice's spine using a skin punch.The mice were divided into three groups by random number table method.The control group was injected with 0.1 mL of phosphate buffer solution.The nanovesicle group was injected with 0.1 mL nanovesicles(25 μg/mL).The nanofusion vesicle group was injected with 0.1 mL nanofusion(25 μg/mL)vesicles.After treatment for three consecutive days,the wound healing and histomorphological changes were observed.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)In vitro experiment:nanofusion vesicles,when administered at concentrations ranging from 0 to 100 μg/mL,exhibited no toxic effects and promoted the proliferation of NIH-3T3 and HUVEC cell lines.Notably,a concentration of 25 μg/mL nanofusion vesicle significantly enhanced the proliferation of NIH-3T3 cells.Furthermore,the survival rate of human umbilical vein endothelial cells was observed to increase in correlation with escalating concentrations of nanofusion vesicles.Nanofusion vesicles had a good antioxidant effect.In comparison to the H2O2 group,the fluorescence signal indicative of reactive oxygen species was progressively diminished in both the nanovesicle group and the nanofusion vesicle group.Furthermore,nanofusion vesicles possessed anti-inflammatory capabilities,effectively mitigating the inflammatory response in macrophages triggered by lipopolysaccharide stimulation.(2)In vivo experiment:Hematoxylin-eosin and Masson's trichrome staining revealed that in comparison to the control group,both the nanovesicle group and the nanofusion vesicle group exhibited a significant increase in granulation tissue formation and collagen fiber deposition within the wounds by day 6.Notably,the nanofusion vesicle group displayed the most pronounced effects.On day 12,the wound of nanofusion vesicle group was significantly reduced,and the healing rate was significantly faster than that of other groups(P＜0.01),and the effect of promoting wound healing was the most significant.Our findings demonstrated that nanofusion vesicles exhibited superior pro-cell proliferative,antioxidant,and anti-inflammatory properties,thereby exerting a beneficial effect on the promotion of skin wound healing in diabetic mouse models.

Objective:To investigate the pathological characteristics of post-cholecystectomy specimens from patients with benign gallbladder diseases.Methods:This retrospective case series study analyzed clinical and pathological data from 1 712 patients who underwent cholecystectomy for benign gallbladder diseases at the Sixth People′s Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine between September 2022 and August 2024. The cohort included 757 males and 955 females, with an age ( M(IQR)) of 57(23) years (range: 14 to 91 years). Clinical and pathological features were analyzed. The χ2 test was used to compare clinical characteristics between patients with neoplastic and non-neoplastic polyps. Factors statistically significant in the χ2 test were subsequently included in a binary logistic regression analysis. Results:Postoperative pathological examination revealed gallbladder cancer in 7 patients (0.41%). These 7 cases, including 2 with pT3 stage cancer, were not detected preoperatively by various imaging examinations (ultrasound+magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography/MRI plain scan in 3 cases, ultrasound+enhanced MRI in 1 case, ultrasound+enhanced CT in 2 cases, enhanced CT+enhanced MRI in 1 case). Gallbladder adenoma was found in 23 cases (1.34%), neoplastic polyps (including cholesterol polyps with dysplasia) in 29 cases (1.69%), and non-neoplastic polyps in 154 cases (9.00%). Statistically significant differences were observed in age and polyp number between patients with neoplastic and non-neoplastic polyps ( χ2=10.436 and 8.030; both P<0.05). Binary logistic regression analysis identified age ≥60 years ( P=0.003) and solitary polyps ( P=0.009) as risk factors for neoplastic polyps. Mucosal dysplasia was present in 164 cases (9.58%), including 9 cases of severe dysplasia, 4 of which exhibited focal carcinomatous transformation. Gallbladder polyps combined with stones were found in 90 cases (5.26%), among which 10 were associated with adenoma and mucosal dysplasia, and 2 showed focal carcinomatous transformation. Conclusions:The incidence of incidental gallbladder carcinoma was 0.41%. Intraoperative bile spillage can severely compromise prognosis. Preoperative imaging demonstrates a low detection rate for neoplastic polyps. Particular vigilance for neoplastic polyps is warranted in patients aged ≥60 years or with solitary polyps. Cholecystectomy should be performed promptly for benign gallbladder diseases meeting surgical indications.

Objective To study the five-year survival status and influencing factors of elderly patients with lung cancer complicated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Methods A cohort study was conducted to follow up 450 patients with lung cancer and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease who were hospitalized in our hospital from January 2018 to December 2023. The endpoint of the follow-up was the end of a five-year period or death. The Life Tables method was used to calculate survival rates and plot survival curves. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to analyze the influencing factors of five-year survival. Results The results indicated that the overall five-year survival rate of patients was 4.89%, and it decreased year by year. Cox regression analysis showed that age, gender, family functioning, and psychological status significantly influenced patient survival rate (all P<0.05). Stratified analysis found that the smoking status, family functioning, and psychological status of male patients all had an impact on survival rate (all P<0.05), while the psychological status of female patients had a more significant impact on survival (P=0.008). Conclusion This study provides a scientific basis for comprehensive intervention of elderly lung cancer patients with COPD. It is recommended that clinical attention should be paid to psychological and family factors to improve patient prognosis.