Objective: To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease. Methods: Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance. Results: A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October). Conclusions For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.

Hygroscopicity research has long been a key focus and hot topic in Chinese materia medica（CMM）. Elucidating hygroscopic mechanisms plays a vital role in formulation design， process optimization， and storage condition selection. Hygroscopic models serve as essential tools for characterizing CMM hygroscopic mechanisms， with various types available. The double exponential model is a kinetic mathematical model constructed based on the law of conservation of energy and Fick's first law of diffusion， tailored to the physical properties of CMM extracts. In recent years， this model has been extensively applied to simulate the dynamic moisture absorption behavior of CMM extracts and solid dosage forms under varying humidity conditions. It has revealed the correlation between moisture absorption kinetic parameters and material properties， offering a new perspective for characterizing the moisture uptake behavior of CMM. This paper systematically reviews the application progress of this model in the field of CMM， analyzes its advantages， disadvantages， and challenges in this domain， and explores its potential application trends in other fields. It aims to provide references for elucidating the moisture absorption mechanisms of CMM and researching moisture-proofing technologies， while also offering insights for its broader application in food and polymer materials.

Periodontitis is a chronic inflammatory disease. The heterotopic colonization of periodontal pathogens results in the development of several systemic diseases. Porphyromonas gingivalis (P. gingivalis), a key pathogen for periodontitis, has been linked to the development of various cancers, such as oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC), lung cancer, esophageal cancer, pancreatic cancer, colorectal cancer, cervical cancer, and prostate cancer. P. gingivalis promote the progression of tumor through various mechanisms, P. gingivalis regulates proteins targeting cell cycle and apoptosis to promote proliferation of tumor cells directly, enhances tumor stemness by upregulating the expression of cluster of differentiation 44 (CD44) and cluster of differentiation 133 (CD133), activates inflammasome and p38/c-Jun N-terminal kinase 1(JNK) pathways, regulates tumor-associated neutrophil (TAN) polarization to remodel the tumor microenvironment, regulates epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) to promote tumor metastasis, remodel macrophage function to evade host immune response, and regulates multi-communicating with symbiotic bacteria. In addition, P. gingivalis accelerates the progression of esophageal cancer, pancreatic cancer, colorectal cancer, and prostate cancer by promoting cell proliferation, inhibiting apoptosis, inducing chronic inflammation, and escaping immunity. However, the oral microbiome is a complex system, whether the interactions between oral bacteria affect tumor progression needs to be further investigated.

ObjectiveHistorically documented Zhejiang Atractylodis Macrocephalae Rhizoma（Baizhu） possesses premium characteristics such as phoenix-like head and crane-like neck， pronounced sweetness， and fragrant aroma. However， its current market circulation is low， and the processed products with Zhejiang-style characteristics are at the risk of being lost. This study aims to preserve the ancient Zhejiang-style processing techniques and evaluate them using modern scientific methods. MethodsMultidimensional intelligent sensory evaluation was used to digitally characterize the "quality-structure" of the external appearance of nine-steamed and nine-processed Baizhu medicinal materials（intermediate processed products） and the "odor-taste" of the internal quality of its decoction pieces（slices）， and the appearance parameters were digitally characterized by colorimeter， texture analyzer， electronic nose and electronic tongue， the chemical composition was analyzed via ultra-performance liquid chromatography-quadrupole-time-of-flight mass spectrometry（UPLC-Q-TOF-MS/MS）. Then， cluster analysis on the differences in odor between the medicinal materials（intermediate processed products） and decoction pieces（slices） of nine-steamed and nine-processed Baizhu was conducted， as well as the differences in taste between water-soluble and alcohol-soluble extracts of the decoction pieces（slices）， and the correlation analysis of chroma value-alcohol-soluble extract content-component response value. ResultsThe nine-steamed and nine-processed Baizhu had a dark brown to black epidermis， a brownish-yellow to brownish-gray cross-section， a slightly tough texture， a faint odor， and a slightly sweet， bitter and pungent taste. Texture analyzer measurements revealed minimal adhesion and maximum recovery in the middle section of the characteristic processed Baizhu， consistent with the processing endpoint of thorough steaming and cooking. The head section showed the highest internal hardness， elasticity and chewiness， indicating a denser texture in this area. The electronic nose sensor could clearly distinguish the difference between the medicinal materials and its decoction pieces， with a more significant clustering effect at 60 ℃ for 30 minutes compared to ambient temperature headspace for 2 hours， highlighting the significant impact of the baking degree before slicing on the quality. The electronic tongue taste signal map clearly distinguished the differences between water-soluble and alcohol-soluble extracts of nine-steamed and nine-processed Baizhu decoction pieces， and the addition of auxiliary materials during processing could enhance its alcohol-soluble extract content. A total of 82 chemical components were identified in the characteristic processed Baizhu. After processing， the contents of 58 components increased， while 24 components decreased. Correlation analysis revealed significant negative correlations（P<0.01） between ethanol-soluble extract content and colorimetric values of brightness（L^*）， yellow-bule value（b^*）， and total color difference（E^*_ab）. E^*_ab showed marked negative correlations（P<0.05） with the response values of isochlorogenic acid A and C. ConclusionThis study establishes a modern intelligent sensory evaluation model for multidimensional holographic characterization of nine-steamed and nine-processed Baizhu， clarifying the correlation between increased isochlorogenic acid content and the visual color appearance after different steaming cycles， as well as its intrinsic alcohol-soluble extracts. This provides a reference for quality evaluation and processing standards of the Zhejiang-style characteristic processed products.

Objective To study the five-year survival status and influencing factors of elderly patients with lung cancer complicated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Methods A cohort study was conducted to follow up 450 patients with lung cancer and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease who were hospitalized in our hospital from January 2018 to December 2023. The endpoint of the follow-up was the end of a five-year period or death. The Life Tables method was used to calculate survival rates and plot survival curves. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to analyze the influencing factors of five-year survival. Results The results indicated that the overall five-year survival rate of patients was 4.89%, and it decreased year by year. Cox regression analysis showed that age, gender, family functioning, and psychological status significantly influenced patient survival rate (all P<0.05). Stratified analysis found that the smoking status, family functioning, and psychological status of male patients all had an impact on survival rate (all P<0.05), while the psychological status of female patients had a more significant impact on survival (P=0.008). Conclusion This study provides a scientific basis for comprehensive intervention of elderly lung cancer patients with COPD. It is recommended that clinical attention should be paid to psychological and family factors to improve patient prognosis.

ObjectiveThis paper aims to study the potential active compound components and action mechanism of Shenqi Dihuangtang in the treatment of diabetic kidney disease （DKD） through network pharmacology and in vivo experimental verification. MethodsUltra-high-performance liquid chromatography-Q-exactive orbitrap mass spectrometry （UPLC-Q-Exactive Orbitrap MS） technology was used to clarify the main active chemical components of Shenqi Dihuangtang， and it was combined with network pharmacology methods such as gene ontology （GO） functional annotations and Kyoto encyclopedia of genes and genome （KEGG） to predict the potential action mechanism of Shenqi Dihuangtang in treating DKD. Subsequently， the DKD model of db/db male mice was established， and the mice were randomly divided into model group， low-dose Shenqi Dihuangtang group （6.10 g·kg^-1）， medium-dose Shenqi Dihuangtang group （12.19 g·kg^-1）， high-dose Shenqi Dihuangtang group （24.38 g·kg^-1）， and daplizin group （1.25 mg·kg^-1）. During the same period， C57BL/6J male mice were selected into normal group and received drug intervention for 8 weeks， respectively. During this period， the body weight and fasting blood glucose （FBG） of the mice were dynamically monitored， and oral glucose tolerance test （OGTT） and insulin tolerance test （ITT） were performed at the end of dosing. The levels of serum creatinine （SCr）， blood urea nitrogen （BUN）， uric acid （UA）， albumin （ALB）， and total protein （TP） were measured by an automatic biochemical analyzer， and 24-hour urine protein was measured by a urine protein quantitative kit. Hematoxylin-eosin （HE）， periodic-acid Schiff （PAS）， and Masson staining were employed to observe the renal histopathology. The expression of nephrotic protein Nephrin was observed by immunohistochemistry. Western blot was used to detect the expression of epithelial-mesenchymal transition （EMT）-related proteins such as TGF-β₁， Smad2/3， α-smooth muscle actin （α-SMA）， neural-cadherin （N-Cadherin）， and snail protein. ResultsUPLC-Q-Exactive Orbitrap MS identified 384 active compounds in the aqueous extract of Shenqi Dihuangtang. According to oral bioavailability≥30% and the five drug-like principles， 44 key active ingredients were screened out， and 169 intersection targets highly correlated with DKD were matched. Among them， there was a significant interaction relationship between tumor necrosis factor（TNF）， interleukin（IL）-6， protein kinase B（Akt）1， Caspase-3， Jun proto-oncogene （JUN）， hypoxia inducible factor-1α（HIF-1α）， B cell lymphoma-2（Bcl-2）， matrix metallopeptidase-9（MMP-9）， IL-1β， and TGF-β₁. GO functional annotations were significantly enriched in cellular components such as membrane rafts， membrane microdomains， and collagen-containing extracellular matrix， molecular functions such as DNA-binding transcription factor binding， R-Smad binding， and Smad protein binding， as well as biological processes such as reactions to lipopolysaccharides（LPS）， reactions to bacteria-derived molecules， and wound healing. The KEGG pathway was significantly enriched in lipids and atherosclerosis， TGF-β signaling pathway， phosphatidylinositol 3 kinase （PI3K）/Akt signaling pathway， etc. In vivo experimental results showed that the high-dose Shenqi Dihuangtang group could significantly reduce FBG levels in db/db mice （P<0.01）， improve OGTT （P<0.01） and ITT （P<0.01） levels， reduce SCr （P<0.01）， BUN （P<0.01）， UA （P<0.01） and 24-hour BUN （P<0.01）， and increase ALB （P<0.01） and TP （P<0.01） levels. Pathological staining confirmed that the high-dose Shenqi Dihuangtang group could significantly reduce the glomerular mesangial matrix area and collagen deposition （P<0.01） and upregulate the positive expression rate of Nephrin （P<0.01）. Western blot results showed that the high-dose Shenqi Dihuangtang group significantly downregulated the expression of TGF-β₁ （P<0.01） and Smad2/3 （P<0.01） signal molecules and inhibited the protein levels of α-SMA （P<0.01）， N-Cadherin （P<0.01）， and Snail （P<0.01）. ConclusionShenqi Dihuangtang can inhibit the TGF-β₁/Smad signaling axis and block the renal EMT process， thereby improving DKD renal fibrosis damage. Further analysis of its key active components and clinical transformation pathways is needed in the future.

Purpose: We used bioinformatics methods and Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis to investigate the hub genes involved in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and their causal relationship with hemolysis, to explore a new direction for molecular biology research of AML. Methods: We first differentially analyzed peripheral blood samples from 62 healthy volunteers and 65 patients with AML from the Gene Expression Omnibus database to obtain differentially expressed genes (DEGs), and intersected them with genes sourced from weighted gene co-expression network analysis (WGCNA) and the GeneCards database to obtain target genes. Target genes were screened using protein–protein interaction (PPI) network analysis and ROC curves to identify genes associated with AML. Finally, we analyzed the correlation between genes and immune cells and the relationship between toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4) and AML using MR. Results: We compared peripheral blood expression profiles using an array of 62 healthy volunteers (GSE164191) and 65 patients with AML (GSE89565) (M0:25; M1:11; M2:10; M3:1; M4:7; M4 eo t [16;16] ou inv [16]:4; M5:6; M6:1) and obtained 7,339 DEGs (3,733 upregulated and 3,606 downregulated). We intersected these DEGs with 4,724 genes from WGCNA and 1,330 genes related to hemolysis that were identified in the GeneCards database to obtain 190 target genes. After further screening these genes using the PPI network, we identified TLR4, PTPRC, FCGR3B, STAT1, and APOE, which are closely associated with hemolysis in patients with AML. Finally, we found a causal relationship between TLR4 and AML occurrence using MR analysis (p < 0.05). Conclusion We constructed a WGCNA-based co-expression network and identified hemolysis-associated AML genes.

Purpose: Leptin interacts not only with leptin receptor (LEPR) but also engages with other receptors. While the pro-oncogenic effects of the adrenergic receptor β2 (ADRB2) are well-established, the role of leptin in activating ADRB2 in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) remains unclear. Materials and Methods: The pro-carcinogenic effects of LEPR were investigated using murine TNBC cell lines, 4T1 and EMT6, and a tumor-bearing mouse model. Expression levels of LEPR, NADPH oxidase 4 (NOX4), and ADRB2 in TNBC cells and tumor tissues were analyzed via western blot and quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction. Changes in reactive oxygen species (ROS) levels were assessed using flow cytometry and MitoSox staining, while immunofluorescence double-staining confirmed the co-localization of LEPR and ADRB2. Results: LEPR activation promoted NOX4-derived ROS and mitochondrial ROS production, facilitating TNBC cell proliferation and migration, effects which were mitigated by the LEPR inhibitor Allo-aca. Co-expression of LEPR and ADRB2 was observed on cell membranes, and bioinformatics data revealed a positive correlation between the two receptors. Leptin activated both LEPR and ADRB2, enhancing intracellular ROS generation and promoting tumor progression, which was effectively countered by a specific ADRB2 inhibitor ICI118551. In vivo, leptin injection accelerated tumor growth and lung metastases without affecting appetite, while treatments with Allo-aca or ICI118551 mitigated these effects. Conclusion This study demonstrates that leptin stimulates the growth and metastasis of TNBC through the activation of both LEPR and ADRB2, resulting in increased ROS production. These findings highlight LEPR and ADRB2 as potential biomarkers and therapeutic targets in TNBC.

Background/Aims: Endoscopic radiofrequency ablation (ERFA) is a treatment option for superficial esophageal squamous cell neoplasia (ESCN), with a relatively low risk of stenosis; however, the long-term outcomes remain unclear. We aimed to compare the long-term outcomes of patients with widespread superficial ESCN who underwent endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) or ERFA. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of patients with superficial ESCN who underwent ESD or ERFA between January 2015 and December 2021. The primary outcome measure was recurrence-free survival. Results: Ninety-two and 33 patients with superficial ESCN underwent ESD and ERFA, respectively. The en bloc, R0, and curative resection rates for ESD were 100.0%, 90.2%, and 76.1%, respectively. At 12 months, the complete response rate was comparable between the two groups (94.6% vs 90.9%, p=0.748). During a median follow-up of 66 months, recurrence-free survival was significantly longer in the ESD group than in the ERFA group (p=0.004), while no significant differences in overall survival (p=0.845) and disease-specific survival (p=0.494) were observed.Preoperative diagnosis of intramucosal cancer (adjusted hazard ratio, 5.55; vs high-grade intraepithelial neoplasia) was an independent predictor of recurrence. Significantly fewer patients in the ERFA group experienced stenosis compare to ESD group (15.2% vs 38.0%, p=0.016). Conclusions The risk of recurrence was higher for ERFA than ESD for ESCN but overall survival was not affected. The risk of esophageal stenosis was significantly lower for patients who underwent ERFA.